The week’s lone coupon auction priced at 1pm when the Treasury sold $13 BN in 20Y paper, in a solid if not stellar auction.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.883%, up from 4.817% in March and the highest since last July. It also stopped through the 4.892% When Issued by 0.9bps, the highest since January.

The bid to cover was 2.68, down from 2.76 in March but above the 2.63 six-auction average.

The internals were also solid with Indirects taking 67.4% of the auction, down modestly from 69.2% last month but also above the 62.9% recent average for foreign buyers. And with Directs taking 22.9%, up modestly from 21.6% last month, Dealers were left holding just 9.7%, down from the recent average of 11.2%.

Overall, this was another solid auction, which is a welcome outcome at a time when 10Y yields are trading near weekly highs just around 4.30%.

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Iran continues to export its oil out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz using dark mode on tankers to move past the US blockade outside the world’s most vital oil chokepoint.

At least two Iran-flagged supertankers fully laden with an estimated about 4 million barrels of crude have exited the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz and through the U.S. blockade, Bloomberg reports, citing satellite imagery analyzed by energy flows intelligence firm Vortexa.

The two Iranian very large crude carriers have been detected by satellite images as they had turned off their transponders and AIS positioning weeks ago. One of the supertankers, the Hero II, last transmitted a signal more than a month ago, with position in the Malacca Strait, data on MarineTraffic showed. The other VLCC, the Hedy, was last detected by AIS transponders around the same area near Malaysia and Singapore more than 70 days ago.

Various vessel-tracking and maritime intelligence firms say that Iran continues to export its oil and move tankers past the U.S. blockade, by increasingly using dark activity and signal spoofing tactics.

Earlier this week, an Iranian supertanker, which had delivered 2 million barrels of crude to a ship-to-ship transfer offshore Indonesia, was en route to return to Iran’s Kharg Island after entering the Strait of Hormuz through the U.S. blockade.

An Iran-owned VLCC departed Iran in late March 2026 and traveled to the Riau Archipelago in Indonesia, where she transferred 2 million barrels of crude oil to another VLCC, according to vessel monitoring data by TankerTrackers.com.

“Iranian flows continue via deception, including dark activity and ship-to-ship transfers,” maritime intelligence firm Windward said in a daily note on Tuesday.

“Iranian maritime trade remains active, but increasingly reliant on deceptive shipping practices and alternative routing strategies. New intelligence indicates potential shifts east of Hormuz, suggesting that pressure in the Gulf is driving adaptation rather than halting flows.”  

Democrats’ decisive win in Virginia Tuesday night has dealt a significant blow to Republican hopes of retaining control of the House.

By persuading voters to dismantle the state’s independent redistricting commission – created just six years ago – Democrats wiped out four Republican-held congressional districts. This means Virginia’s House delegation is now on track to shift to a 10-to-1 Democratic advantage, a dramatic reversal for a state that remained firmly in GOP hands not long ago.

That said, Democrats dropped $65 million on the races (though the final tally was uncomfortably close), while Punchbowl reports that Republicans are trading blame internally – second-guessing whether they let a chance slip away to blunt the Democratic surge.

And with midterms right around the corner, there are few indications that President Trump or House Republican leadership possesses either the strategic focus or message discipline needed to protect their narrow majority. Fresh off Trump’s 2024 presidential win, Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, clung to control by the slimmest of margins. Pulling off a repeat performance now looks considerably tougher.

Betting markets are already pricing in a Democratic win in the House.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes 85% · No 16%
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While party leaders insist a third Trump impeachment is off the table, the shift would almost certainly unleash a barrage of investigations and subpoenas aimed at the White House and Cabinet agencies – with major legal and political ripple effects. Lawmakers could also face even more protracted government shutdowns than the record-length appropriations lapses seen in the current Congress.

“I told Mike Johnson in July of last year that, ‘If you go down this road, it’s not going to work out for you,'” Jeffries told Punchbowl Tuesday night.

He added: “And at the end of the day, his best-case scenario was that he would net zero seats, but force at least 10 Republicans, who are incumbent members of his conference, into premature retirement. And that is exactly what has happened.”

Jeffries earned significant credit for orchestrating Tuesday’s outcome – as Virginia Democrats first had to steer the ballot measure through the state legislature twice, beat back multiple court challenges, and then win over voters. A nonprofit aligned with Jeffries poured $38 million into the effort to secure passage, and he personally managed the operation from beginning to end – designing the referendum strategy, recruiting staff and directing on-the-ground coordination. Many Virginia Democrats initially resisted the high-stakes gamble, requiring Jeffries to personally persuade both the state delegation and the warring legislative chambers to fall in line.

True to form, Jeffries remained measured when asked whether Tuesday’s result clinched the majority or signaled an impending blue wave. He did, however, declare victory in the broader redistricting battle.

“When you line up the congressional map in Texas and compare it with the response in California, they’re going to lose seats and would be fortunate if in Texas, they win two or three of the five seats that they claimed they were going to steal from Democrats,” Jeffries said.

The biggest wild cards left for both sides are Florida and the future of the Voting Rights Act, which is up to the Supreme Court. Tuesday’s result intensifies pressure on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to advance an ambitious congressional map next week capable of delivering Republicans a net gain of three to five seats. Yet DeSantis is encountering pushback from the state’s Republican congressional delegation and the GOP-controlled legislature, many of whom doubt such an aggressive redraw is feasible. Several Florida Republicans caution that Latino voters are not reliably in the GOP column and may not show up for the party the way they did in 2024, urging caution.

Spending in Virginia was wildly lopsided. Democrats poured $56.4 million into television and digital ads; Republicans mustered just $24.6 million. Republicans still lost by fewer than 90,000 votes out of more than 3 million cast.

According to the report, GOP strategists insist they deliberately avoided nationalizing the contest to keep from energizing the Democratic base. They argue that heavier spending would simply have provoked an even larger Democratic response. They also note that the “No” side outperformed Trump’s 2024 numbers in the state. Former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares and onetime House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who helmed the opposition effort, pledged to keep fighting the new map in court.

House Republicans, however, were already firing off frantic messages Tuesday night. Several told reporters they had been assured that additional money would make no difference in Virginia – yet the narrow margin suggests otherwise. 

The American Action Network, a nonprofit close to Johnson, quietly funneled money to the group bankrolling the “No” campaign, according to a person familiar with the transaction. Meanwhile, only one solidly Republican seat remains, in the state’s southwest corner. GOP Reps. Ben Cline and Morgan Griffith may find themselves forced into a member-versus-member primary.

Anthropic’s ‘Mythos’ model is extraordinarily dangerous. The company itself warned that it could autonomously identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system, every major web browser, and every critical software library on Earth. And because of this offensive cybersecurity power, Anthropic refused to release Mythos publicly – and instead tightly restricted access through ‘Project Glasswing’ to roughly 50 carefully vetted organizations – 12 named launch partners plus more than 40 additional critical software and government entities, including the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA).

Yet within hours of the limited rollout announcement on April 7, 2026, a small group of unauthorized users in a private Discord server had already broken in.

The breach, reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday, reveals how fragile the safeguards around frontier AI models can be. According to the report, the group gained access using a surprisingly low-tech combination: legitimate credentials from a third-party contractor involved in Anthropic’s evaluations, plus clever internet sleuthing to guess the hidden API endpoint by reverse-engineering Anthropic’s internal naming conventions (patterns inferred from an earlier Mercor data leak).

They have reportedly been using Mythos regularly for nearly two weeks. Sources emphasize the usage has been non-malicious so far – things like building simple websites – rather than launching cyberattacks.

“We’re investigating a report claiming unauthorized access to Claude Mythos Preview through one of our third-party vendor environments,” a spokesperson said in a statement, adding that there’s no evidence that the access went beyond a third-party vendor’s environment or that it is impacting any of Anthropic’s systems.

Project Glasswing

In early April, Anthropic launched Project Glasswing, a defensive cybersecurity initiative built around Mythos Preview. The 12 launch partners included Amazon Web Services, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, NVIDIA, Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase, and the Linux Foundation, along with over 40 additional critical software organizations. The explicit goal was to give these defenders a head start: let Mythos hunt for vulnerabilities in their own systems and major open-source projects before malicious actors could weaponize the same capabilities.

Anthropic’s own red-team testing reportedly showed Mythos could find and chain complex zero-days that had remained hidden for decades in software like Linux, OpenBSD, and FFmpeg.

Even as the Pentagon formally labeled Anthropic a “supply-chain risk” in March 2026 – citing the company’s refusal to remove ethical guardrails that would allow its models to be used for mass domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons – other key parts of the U.S. government have moved with urgency to embrace the very same technology. The National Security Agency is already actively using Claude Mythos Preview, while the White House’s Office of Management and Budget circulated an internal memo on Monday directing federal agencies to begin leveraging the model for vulnerability discovery in government networks. The Treasury Department has been particularly aggressive, rushing to secure access and convening major bank CEOs for urgent red-teaming sessions after being warned that Mythos could “hack every major system.” 

A Low-Tech Breach

The unauthorized access was deceptively simple. One member of the Discord group (a private forum focused on hunting unreleased AI models) had legitimate access as a worker at a third-party contractor. Using knowledge of Anthropic’s naming patterns, the group correctly guessed the private API endpoint for Mythos Preview on the very same day the limited release was announced.

Once inside, they continued using the model without triggering obvious alarms.

Anthropic said Mythos was too dangerous to release. Then four random guys in a Discord gained access on day one by guessing the URL…

This is pretty insane:
→ Group in a private Discord guessed the endpoint from Anthropic’s naming conventions
→ They figured out the… https://t.co/HUxd8pwqEH

— Josh Kale (@JoshKale) April 22, 2026

So, here’s where we are: these AI models are becoming so powerful that even their creators treat them with extreme caution – yet the operational security surrounding them can still fall to basic tactics like credential misuse and URL guessing.

As of Wednesday, Anthropic has offered no further updates on its investigation, no timeline, and no announcement of technical fixes such as credential rotation or endpoint randomization. There is still no public evidence of malicious use by the Discord group – however, the breach raises serious questions about how many other restricted AI systems might be leaking through similar third-party or supply-chain vulnerabilities.

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Wall Street law firm Sullivan & Cromwell has apologized to a federal judge after submitting a court filing that contained around 40 incorrect citations and other errors caused by AI hallucinations.

“We deeply regret that this has occurred,” Andrew Dietderich, co-head of Sullivan & Cromwell’s global restructuring team, wrote Friday in a letter to Chief Judge Martin Glenn of the US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.

“The Firm and I are keenly aware of our responsibility to ensure the accuracy of all submissions including under Local Bankruptcy Rule 9011-1(d), and I take responsibility for the failure to do so,” he said of an emergency motion filed nine days earlier.

Excerpt from Andrew Dietderich’s letter to Chief Judge Martin Glenn. Source: Sullivan & Cromwell

The incident highlights the risk AI tools can pose in high-stakes professional work without proper oversight. A database managed by legal technologist Damien Charlotin has recorded 1,334 incidents of AI hallucinations in court filings around the world, including more than 900 in the US.

Charlotin pointed out that most of these hallucinations involve fabricated citations, though AI-generated legal arguments have also occasionally been identified.

Dietderich said Sullivan & Cromwell has policies in place for the use of AI tools, which include a review of the citations it uses, but said the policies weren’t followed.

“Regrettably, this review process did not identify the inaccurate citations generated by AI, nor did it identify other errors that appear to have resulted in whole or in part from manual error.”

Sullivan & Cromwell is one of the largest law firms in the US by revenue, ranking 30th on the AmLaw Global 200. The firm also represented crypto exchange FTX in its bankruptcy case.

Sullivan & Cromwell is conducting an internal investigation

Dietderich said the law firm took “immediate remedial measures,” including a full review of the circumstances that led to the errors. 

The firm is also “evaluating whether further enhancements to its internal training and review processes are warranted,” Dietderich said.

Dietderich also noted that the errors were spotted by a rival law firm.

“I also called Boies Schiller Flexner LLP on Friday to thank them for bringing this matter to our attention and to apologize directly to them as well,” he said. 

In a new note out by Canaccord, the firm reiterates its BUY rating on USA Rare Earth and raises its price target to $32 from $29, arguing that the company is rapidly emerging as a cornerstone of a Western rare earth supply chain at a time when geopolitical urgency around reducing dependence on China is intensifying. Shares are already up about 50% over the past week and currently sit around $25:

The analysts frame the industry as a kind of “strategic chess match,” with the U.S. racing to build domestic and allied capacity, and position USA Rare Earth as one of the few companies attempting to build a fully integrated, end-to-end platform spanning mining through magnet production.

The centerpiece of the note is the company’s planned $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde in Brazil, which Canaccord describes as a “tectonic” move. The asset includes the Pela Ema operation, currently the only scaled producer outside Asia of all four key magnetic rare earth elements—neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.

As we noted days ago Serra Verde’s asset is especially valuable because it can supply key magnet materials—neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—which are critical for high-performance permanent magnets. The mine is also backed by a long-term offtake agreement tied to U.S. government-related entities, covering 100% of production for those four elements.

Beyond simply adding volume, the deal gives USA Rare Earth meaningful exposure to heavy rare earths, which are the most supply-constrained and strategically valuable parts of the market. By 2027, Serra Verde is expected to represent more than half of non-China heavy rare earth supply, making it arguably the most important Western asset in the space.

Canaccord emphasizes that the acquisition is not just about scale but about accelerating the company’s path to profitability and securing feedstock for its downstream magnet ambitions. The combined company would span the full value chain—from mining at Serra Verde and Round Top, to separation through Carester, to metals and alloys via Less Common Metals, and ultimately to magnet manufacturing in the U.S.

The firm sees this vertical integration as critical to competing with China, which still dominates roughly 70% of mining and over 90% of processing and magnet production globally.

A major highlight of the note is the 15-year offtake agreement tied to Serra Verde’s Phase 1 production, which is backed by a special purpose vehicle funded in part by U.S. government entities. This agreement secures 100% of initial output and, importantly, includes price floors for both light and heavy rare earths—around $110/kg for Nd/Pr, $575/kg for dysprosium, and $2,050/kg for terbium.

Canaccord views this as a first-of-its-kind structure that effectively de-risks revenues while still allowing USA Rare Earth to capture upside if market prices exceed those levels. The analysts estimate the contract alone could generate more than $346 million in annual revenue from magnetic rare earths under floor pricing assumptions, with additional contribution from other elements like yttrium.

Financially, the note points to a dramatic inflection ahead. Revenue is projected to scale from essentially negligible levels today to over $1 billion by 2027 and roughly $1.3 billion by 2028, with earnings turning positive as early as 2026. Serra Verde is expected to be a major driver, potentially generating around $600 million of EBITDA by 2027 under an oxide production scenario, with total company EBITDA reaching as much as $1.8 billion by 2030.

The analysts also highlight a strong pro forma liquidity position of roughly $3.2 billion following the transaction and associated government support, which should help fund the buildout of the broader platform.

Stepping back, Canaccord’s core argument is that USA Rare Earth is transitioning from an asset aggregation story to an execution story, having assembled what it views as a unique portfolio of strategically important assets across multiple continents. While the firm acknowledges there is still significant operational work ahead to bring these assets fully online, it sees meaningful upside as production ramps, margins expand, and the company solidifies its role as a primary Western supplier of both light and heavy rare earth materials.

The full note is available at the usual place for Premium subscribers. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is nearing a rescue deal for bankrupt Spirit Airlines that could include up to a $500 million loan in exchange for warrants that would give the federal government a potentially large equity stake.

The WSJ noted that the Transportation and Commerce Departments are involved in talks to help save struggling Spirit, which faces the risk of imminent liquidation.

*TRUMP ADMIN. NEARS ~$500M RESCUE DEAL FOR SPIRIT AIRLINES: WSJ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 22, 2026

Last week, multiple news outlets reported that Spirit was flying on fumes as soaring jet fuel prices pushed the bankrupt airline deeper into turmoil. The carrier, in its second bankruptcy since 2024, had been set to exit bankruptcy this summer, but the jet fuel price shock clearly derailed those plans.

There was also a report late last week from aviation news website The Air Current stating that the airline had asked the Trump administration for “hundreds of millions of dollars in emergency funding” to prevent liquidation by creditors.

Then on Tuesday, President Trump told CNBC’s Squawk Box that the federal government could help Spirit.

“I don’t mind mergers. I think I’d love somebody to buy Spirit, as an example. You know, Spirit’s in trouble. … Maybe the federal government should help that one out,” Trump said.

🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: “I’d love somebody to buy Spirit, as an example. You know, Spirit’s in trouble.”

“And I’d love somebody to buy Spirit. It’s 14,000 jobs. And maybe the federal government should help that one out!”

“You know, I tell my people. But with American, it’s… pic.twitter.com/P488KMfox6

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 21, 2026

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy met with budget carriers later on Tuesday to discuss the impact of higher jet fuel prices on their businesses.

The latest Polymarket bet on whether the U.S. will take a stake in Spirit Airlines surged to 40% this morning. The bet is newly created.

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?
Yes 36% · No 64%
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If the federal government provides Spirit with a rescue deal in exchange for a major stake in the airline, it would add the airline to the growing list of firms in which the Trump administration has taken stakes, including Intel, MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Trilogy Metals, and others.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Our central assumption for the Iran war had been that by end the third week of April at latest, the Iranian regime faction willing to make a deal in line with Trump’s tweets would have asserted itself over those who won’t, Hormuz would slowly reopen, and energy markets gradually normalise.

As neither the Iranian nor US negotiating teams traveled to Pakistan for the second round of peace talks yesterday, that cannot happen. Our new geopolitical base case is of an extended closure of Hormuz (in the range of 2-4 weeks). However, the likelihood of escalation to achieve that de-escalation is very high, which risks more energy supply damage.

Trump just unilaterally and indefinitely extended the ceasefire, “based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured,” which the Iranians didn’t request, but Pakistan did. In the Middle East, making a threat and not following through smacks of weakness, and will be noted (again) by Tehran’s hardliners. He added US attacks would be held off “until such time as their leadership and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.” That’s as a Saudi tweet claimed Ghalibaf and Pezeskhian, willing to negotiate with Trump, have been arrested by the IRGC.

If true, that points to a unified Iranian position of defiance. That would then require a US response – either an attack or a 1956 Suez Crisis retreat. Of course, Iran may be incapable of a unified answer until its factions turn on each other (which is likely part of the US strategy) – that would also suggest the need for a US attack, to ‘shake the box’. Or this ceasefire extension can be a US deception as its forces continue to fly or sail into the region.

Meanwhile, the US economic blockade of Iran and the de facto Iranian blockade of Hormuz remain in place: critical energy and goods are not going to flow for longer, with exponentially rising economic damage. Indeed, the US says it will ramp up Operation ‘Economic Fury’ at sea and via sanctions. Iran claims it will break its blockade by force, if it persists, which would of course lead us straight to an escalation again.

Importantly, the threat of an extended throttling of Hormuz will increase the global pressure to act. On one hand, US allies might do something, though this seems unlikely. On the other, China may have to given it has already stated it wants Hormuz to reopen.

Looked at like this, there is nothing for markets to savor about a ‘chicken TACO Tuesday’. Indeed, screen oil prices only softened a little in response to the US ceasefire extension, and the price of physical oil and products in Asia will continue to rise unless Hormuz reopens.

Yet it’s undeniable the extended ceasefire also points towards a true TACO, which we’ve long made clear would be a geopolitical earthquake on par with the 1956 Suez Crisis. Were that to occur, it might be bearish for energy but could leave Iran in charge of Hormuz, which is less so; or Israel in charge of removing Iran from Hormuz, so far less so. Moreover, it would be it would be bearish for lots of assets markets don’t yet envision.

This is as Trump says a proposed currency swap with the UAE — which is pegged to the dollar– is under consideration, with some suggestions China will step in if not. That such an economy might need a dollar facility says a lot about the new world (dis)order that is emerging.

In parallel to Iran, Israel and Hezbollah’s ceasefire is holding on by its fingernails. Lebanon’s PM says his government will not let Hezbollah “intimidate us” – which lack of government actions shows it clearly does; and top US senators are calling to halt aid to Lebanon’s army over its failed Hezbollah disarmament efforts.

Things are also fluid –but not flowing– on other geopolitical fronts. Zelenskyy stated the Druzhba oil pipeline will be ready to ship Russian oil again – as Russia halted Kazakhstan’s oil flows to Germany via it, worsening its energy crisis.

The €90bn EU loan to Ukraine may now proceed, with Kyiv expected to spend the bulk of it on US Patriots, UK Storm Shadows and its own drones – which will be used to hit Russian oil refineries based on the recent heuristic. Yet Ukraine is reportedly proposing naming part of the disputed Donbas region to ‘Donnyland’ in Trump’s honor, not Von der Leyen-land.

At the same time the EU is trying to ease new tensions with Turkey, which also hosts energy pipelines leading to it, after VDL used a media interview to name the EU neighbour alongside Russia and China as threats to Europe requiring Brussels to ‘Complete the continent.” To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, “To lose one key NATO ally may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.”

Meanwhile, as the Middle East and Russian energy complexes are mired in war, a key trader warns of a looming global food shock due to a squeeze on fertilizers; the EU is looking to revive joint gas buying as energy fears mount, which critics say will make little difference; Brussels said we should keep flying despite a looming fuel shortage as “Fears of widespread cancellations are overblown” – as Lufthansa axed 20,000 ‘unprofitable’ flights to save jet fuel; and EU lawmakers urged the Parliament to halt its monthly trip to Strasbourg over energy costs.

So, to central banks. See our US strategist Philip Marey’s take on Fed Chair nominee Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing here, but note he had a tough time, reflecting how much political economy has shifted in the past few years. (Recall “Maestro’ Greenspan, anyone?)

Senator Warren called Warsh President Trump’s “sock puppet.” Then there were a series of questions over Warsh’s wealth, and the extent to which it was tied to Trump, Druckenmiller, China, or Epstein. That’s before we got to actual central banking, which was also disputed.

Warsh had to underline that he backs Fed independence. Yet he thinks interest rates rather than the balance sheet should be the dominant tool of monetary policy, because the distributional effects of the latter favoured the rich, while the more pervasive effects of the former reached everybody. That statement undoes most of the post-GFC central bank strategy.

Warsh also said he wants to work with the Treasury Secretary to see how the Fed can reduce the balance sheet and get out of fiscal policy. That’s as the Pentagon budget is about to increase by 40% and the Treasury is extending its reach into other areas as part of US economic statecraft.

Moreover, while there was some Q&A around the impact of the Iran war on inflation, there was no revealed view on how the Fed can keep CPI low if physical supply constraints matter, from oil to AI to the military; nor what to do if those constraints extend into the geopolitical realm, both in terms of freely-perceived problems and politesse-free solutions. Saying ‘That’s not my job,’ is not how economic statecraft works.

There was also a short discussion of crypto, which Warsh backed: and US dollar stablecoins are potential US economic statecraft, as we have previously explained. Yet there were no questions about political swaplines, perhaps because the Treasury is also muscling in on that territory of late(?)

* * *

Oil prices are modestly higher this morning, erasing overnight losses on Trump’s ‘ceasefire extension’ after Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

While headline roulette continues to drive oil prices incrementally, this morning’s inventory/supply data from DOE will provide some color on how the

API

Crude -4.5mm

Cushing +700k

Gasoline -5.2mm

Distillates -4.6mm

DOE

Crude +1.925mm

Cushing +806k

Gasoline -4.57mm – 10th weekly draw in a row

Distillates -3.43mm – 4th weekly draw in a row

Crude stocks unexpectedly saw a build last week (after a draw the week before) as did Cushing inventories. However, on the product side, the sizable drawdowns continue…

Source: Bloomberg

Since the war started, Crude stocks have risen significantly, while gasoline inventories have seen non-stop draws…

Source: Bloomberg

Weekly US implied gasoline demand is holding up despite elevated prices. The 4-week moving average indicate a slight rise of 32,000 barrels per day, while the more volatile weekly data series ticked down by 33,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, US average gasoline prices remain above $4 a gallon. It was near $3 a gallon right before the Iran war. 

Source: Bloomberg

The crude inventory build was more than offset by a huge 4.14mm barrel drawdown from the SPR…

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production dipped once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, total US oil product exports accelerated to a new record high last week…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains for now, near yesterday’s highs around $92…

Finally, as The Wall Street Journal reports, analysts and commodities trading company executives are expressing shock at what they call a disconnect between market pricing and reality.

Prices of the most-active Brent futures contract are holding below $100 a barrel despite escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz and the cancellation of U.S.-Iran peace talks. Just today, two attacks on ships in the waterway showed that the fight for control of the strait continues and spooked shipowners and crew members. Here’s what I’m hearing from experts and industry leaders at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland:

“The lack of price discovery that we are seeing is so worrying to me, because in reality we are storing up a bigger problem for the future,” said Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects. Price discovery refers to the process of buyers and sellers determining the fair price of a good or an asset in the futures market.

“Futures prices are meant to do the job of giving signals to sort out supply and demand. We are doing the opposite,” she said in a panel.

In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the market didn’t experience nearly as large a physical disruption as this time, and yet oil prices went much higher and stayed between $110 and $125 a barrel for months, said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Swiss commodity trader Trafigura, at the conference yesterday.

“This time, the scale seems to be something where the market cannot get its head around it, and therefore it says, we are not going to think about it.”

The world is already losing an average of 10 million barrels a day of crude oil and 5 million barrels a day of oil products. Hits to the world’s supply of fertilizers and chemicals are also severe.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Online interactive gaming platform Roblox has agreed to settle with West Virginia, Alabama, and Nevada for a combined $35.78 million, committing to strengthen children’s safety through measures such as mandatory age verification and chat restrictions.

Roblox reached an $11.08 million settlement with West Virginia. In an April 21 statement, the office of West Virginia Attorney General John B. McCuskey said that Roblox has agreed to “major child safety overhaul.” The settlement came after an investigation conducted by the office found that the platform exposed child users to sexual predators, sexual and violent content, and grooming risks.

McCuskey said there were “serious failures that left children exposed to real danger.”

Under the agreement, Roblox will verify the ages of all users before allowing chat access. This is expected to limit instances of adults contacting minors and reduce the risk of grooming. The company will block all chat until users verify their age, seeking to reduce the use of anonymous accounts by predators to target children.

Once age verification is complete, adults can contact under-16 users only through verified trusted friends, according to the statement. The accounts of all under-16 users will, by default, run on safe content mode, which will reportedly block out adult-rated material.

Roblox has also committed to recruiting an internet safety specialist in West Virginia. The settlement funds will be paid over several years.

“I have two young daughters who love Roblox, so I know how popular it is,” McCuskey said. “I am thankful that Roblox took our concerns seriously and worked with us to make these major safety changes.”

Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall announced in an April 21 statement that the state has reached a $12.2 million settlement with Roblox.

Under the deal, Roblox has agreed to verify the age of users and restrict content accordingly, use facial estimation technology and government ID to verify users, and utilize behavioral monitoring to identify those whose ages may have been recorded incorrectly.

“Roblox will not allow communication involving minors to be encrypted. Unencrypted communication allows law enforcement to be able to more easily combat child exploitation networks, trafficking, and the distribution of illegal and harmful content,” the statement said.

Parents will have expanded control over their child’s use of Roblox, including deciding whom their children can talk to and what games they can play, according to the statement.

“This settlement sends a clear message to every platform operating in this space—you cannot turn a blind eye to the exploitation of children and expect to avoid consequences,” Marshall said.

“Platforms that host child consumers must do their part to give parents a fighting chance to shield their children from harm. While parents will always play the primary role in protecting their children online, we are raising the bar on what we expect from gaming platforms—parents need a partner, not a black box.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Roblox for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Roblox’s deals with West Virginia and Alabama follow an agreement with Nevada announced last week under which the company agreed to pay $10 million.

The company also committed to spending $1 million on a safety awareness campaign targeting users, and $1.5 million on a law enforcement liaison position. The Nevada deal includes commitments similar to those of Alabama.

California-based Roblox, which has about 151.5 million daily active users, is used by “nearly half of the entire U.S. population of children under 16 years old,” Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford said during an April 15 press conference. About 42 percent of Roblox’s users are under 13.

Responding to the Nevada settlement, Roblox Chief Safety Officer Matt Kaufman told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that it disputes the allegations made against the company.

However, “[Roblox is] proud to have worked alongside Attorney General Ford to reach this landmark agreement, which builds on our work to establish a new standard for digital safety,” Kaufman said.

“This resolution creates a blueprint for how industry and regulators can work together to protect the next generation of digital citizens.”

Child Safety Concerns

Activities of the online predator network “764” have been linked to Roblox, with the predators using the platform to communicate with minors. The network is linked to a broader extremist online system that encourages children toward self-harm, suicide, sexual exploitation, and animal abuse.

In December, Iowa announced a lawsuit against Roblox, accusing the platform of being the “perfect environment for child predators, pornographers, scammers, fraudsters, online sex rings, and inappropriate content.”

Roblox allows users to create Lego-like avatars and play various games, called “experiences.”

“Some experiences are at strip clubs, others are at ‘Epstein’s Island,’ where simulated underage sexual activity takes place,” the lawsuit said. “There are also hundreds of experiences just about Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs, who was recently convicted of trafficking and prostitution. … These are just a few of the thousands of examples.”

Other states like Louisiana, Kentucky, Texas, and Florida have also sued Roblox over child safety concerns.

On April 13, Roblox announced age-based accounts and expanded parental controls for users under 16.

Users between the ages of 5 and 8, and 9 to 15, will have separate accounts with stricter adult content censorship.

“All content uploaded to Roblox goes through their existing moderation systems, including AI asset scanning, ongoing user report review, and multimodal moderation that evaluates scenes in real time for potential policy violations,” the company said.

“For content made available to users under 16, they will apply an additional continuous process that dynamically selects games. This process will include developer verification, extended content evaluation and rating, and additional limits on content more suited to older audiences.”

Earlier this year, Robolox became the first online gaming platform to require facial age checks for users in order to access chat.

“Since then, over 50 percent of global and 65 percent of U.S. daily active users have completed an age check,” according to the company.

Child safety advocacy group Enough is Enough criticized Roblox for taking “so long” to institute stringent safety controls to protect children from predators, according to an April 16 statement from the organization.

Enough is Enough questioned the timing of these new measures, highlighting the numerous lawsuits Roblox is facing over child safety concerns.

“Once again, it is clear that nothing motivates tech platforms to protect children online like lawsuits or legislation,” Donna Rice Hughes, CEO of the group, said. “Tech platforms like Roblox must be compelled to do right by children. Congress must take note and pass online child safety solutions.”