Authored by Kerry Johnson via  Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy,

It was supposed to cost $33 billion when voters approved the train in 2008. It will now cost at least $126 billion.

It was also supposed to be carrying 65.5 million to 96.5 million intercity riders a year by 2030. Yet now 2040 is the date for “full service to start.” Skeptics don’t believe we’ll ever see the train run with paying customers aboard.

“In my judgment, the Draft 2026 Business Plan describes a project that has reached a dead end,” says Louis S. Thompson, a 15-year member of the California High Speed Rail Peer Review Group that was established by legislation.

In a letter to lawmakers, Thompson, who was also on the team that created Amtrak, said that after so many changes in the project—cost, design revisions, longer estimated trip times—it’s “not, not even remotely, the system the voters approved in Proposition 1A” in 2008.

Early last year, Gov. Gavin Newsom, that “Steel Driving Man,” promised there soon would be some visible manifestation of the train’s “progress.”

A few months later, HSRA CEO Ian Choudri promised, “We are going to be laying high speed tracks next year.”

The HSRA “expects to achieve several other procurement milestones in 2026,” but not track laying and there is no hard deadline for it to begin to be found in the plan. There is only a three-and-a-half-year timeline, which starts in July for the “Track & Systems Design & Construction” of the first section in the Central Valley.

In other words, the HSRA has provided itself cover should it fall short of its 2026 promise.

California’s perpetually unfolding mess has caught the attention of the editorial board of a newspaper one state over after a recent “60 Minutes” report “shined the spotlight on what has become the most embarrassing and costly government infrastructure boondoggle in US history.”

“Has there ever been a greater fraud perpetrated on the taxpayers than California’s high-speed rail travesty?” asked the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

“Where are the folks at ‘American Greed’ when you need them?”

That is, of course, a reference to the CNBC documentary series “American Greed: Scams, Scoundrels and Scandals.”

It won’t happen, but it would be fitting, if the HSRA borrowed the program’s name for the subtitle of its 2027 business plan, which this year is shamelessly being called “Transforming California’s Future.”

On the surface today’s jobs report was very strong: headline payrolls came in nearly double the expected (115K vs 65K), with unemployment flat just so Trump’s chief economist Kevin Hassett could push bullish taking points in today’s TV circuit such as this one.

*HASSETT: ‘RIP-ROARING’ JOBS MARKET

Unfortunately, below the surface this was the ugliest jobs report in years, and one could say even more cooked than last month’s laughable surge in jobs (which was revised from 178K to 185K).

Here’s why.

First, while the Establishment survey showed an impressive 115K jump in jobs when virtually everyone was expecting a big drop, looking at the composition reveals two things: the biggest contributor was semi-government jobs from the Education and Health services category which added 46K, and has been the biggest, and only consistent source of jobs growth this decade.

But even more remarkable was the surge in courier and messenger jobs, which soared by 38K in April, reversing the 52K drop last month. Was there a Doordash or Uber hiring binge that we missed last month? We thought they were mostly laying off their thousands of illegal alien workers… 

In other words, just two job categories accounted for almost all the job gains in April. As for the beating heart of the US economy, manufacturing jobs, they tumbled to -2,000 after surging 15,000 in March, the first negative print of 2026. Manufacturing jobs are now down 73K over the past year. Chemicals, Wood, and Machinery manufacturing are the biggest losers, but few subsectors are doing well

But what is even more concerning, is that the entire base of the monthly print was put in doubt after the BLS reported that in April, the Birth/Death adjustment “added” 391K jobs, which as we have explained repeatedly are not actual jobs but a baseline for model assumptions what the number of jobs in a given month “should” be. One would think after all the huge negative revisions to jobs under Biden as a result of flawed BIrth/Death assumptions the BLS would have learned its lesson. One would be wrong. 

But stepping away from the Establishment survey, things are even uglier in the much more accurate Household Survey. It is here that we find that contrary to the abovementioned payrolls increase, the number of employed workers actually declined by 226K in April. Worse, this wasn’t a one off: as shown below, the number of employed workers has been declining every month this year, and is now down an average of 343K jobs every month of 2026 after hitting a record high in Dec 2025!

Unfortunately, this means that we are once again witnessing the infamous divergence between the Household And Establishment surveys, as the number of employed workers has been declining and is now the lowest since December 2024 ot 162.622 million, the number of payrolls (tracked by the Establishment survey) is now at an all time high of 158.735 million, a number which is clearly not supported by the data.

This divergence is also why the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%: even though employment shrank by 226K to 162.622 million, the unemployment rate did not rise because people left the labor force.

There was more rot under the surface, as the number of full-time jobs in April plunged by 424K, while part-time jobs surged by 123K.

The drop in full-time jobs dragged the total number of full-time workers to levels last seen in December 2024. In other words both total employment and full-time jobs are back to where they were when Trump was elected.

But while all of the above is just the usual statistical gimmicks we have exposed every year for nearly two decades, there was something much more ominous in today’s report: AI is finally coming for your job… if you are a programmer that is. 

While the total number of jobs in April rose, on the abovementioned low quality Health and education and courrier (?) jobs, information jobs dropped again, sliding by 13K, having slid again… and again… and again. In fact, as shown in the next chart, Information jobs have now been negative every month since 2024!

Don’t expect that to change any time soon as the impact of AI “jobs outsourcing” is now here: as Goldman Delta One head Rich Privorotsky noted, we are seeing a flood of tech layoffs among which Cloudflare laying off 20%, Paypall firing 20%, Upwork 25%, Bill Holdings 30%, Coinbase 14%, Meta 10%, Microsoft 7%… and Google saying 75% of new code is now AI-generated (and about to layoff double digits too).

Tech companies announced 33,361 job cuts in April, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. So far this year, the industry has planned 85,411 cuts, up 33% from the same period in 2025.

“Technology companies continue to announce large-scale cuts and are leading all industries in layoff announcements,” said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer. “Regardless of whether individual jobs are being replaced by AI, the money for those roles is.”

According to Layoffs.FYI, Q1 has seen the most tech related layoffs since the tech recession of 2022.

As Gomdna’s Privorotsky puts it, “this phase has been the capex boom to enable what eventually becomes a far more radical labor adjustment cycle.” Which means workers are laid off to make space for capex spending and the occasional stock buyback. 

As he concludes, that may ultimately be what the market believes a future Fed reaction function will revolve around…AI-driven productivity disinflation eventually allowing a much deeper cutting cycle. In short, the Universal Basic Income that we predicted over two years ago is coming to pay for welfare for the tens of millions soon to be laid off due to AI, is now on its way.

Market pricing so much AI success, it will need to leave about 100 million people without a job.

Bring on the UBI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 24, 2024

Nvidia is expanding beyond chip sales and putting more capital directly into the infrastructure needed to power AI. The company said it could invest up to $2.1 billion in IREN through a deal that gives Nvidia the right to buy as many as 30 million shares at $70 each over the next five years, according to Bloomberg. 

The agreement is designed to accelerate the buildout of large-scale AI data centers as demand for computing power continues to surge.

Bloomberg writes that a major focus of the partnership is IREN’s Sweetwater campus in Texas, which currently has plans for 2 gigawatts of capacity. The companies said that footprint could eventually grow to as much as 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-powered infrastructure over time. IREN also signed a separate $3.4 billion AI cloud agreement to acquire and deploy Nvidia’s Blackwell processors. Together, the deals signal that both companies are betting demand for AI computing will continue rising for years.

The partnership plays to each company’s strengths. Nvidia supplies the chips and networking equipment that dominate the AI market, while IREN specializes in securing land, electricity, and physical infrastructure needed to build large data centers. IREN is also expanding outside the U.S., announcing a deal to acquire Spanish data center developer Ingenostrum as it scales globally.

The move fits a broader pattern for Nvidia, which has increasingly invested in companies across the AI ecosystem. It has recently backed OpenAI, Marvell Technology, and Corning, while also funding infrastructure providers such as CoreWeave and Nebius Group. Critics argue these deals are “circular” because Nvidia is investing in companies that later become major buyers of its chips.

Jensen Huang has pushed back on that criticism. Referring to Nvidia’s investment in CoreWeave earlier this year, he said, “It’s a small percentage of the amount of money that they ultimately have to go raise,” and added, “The idea that it is circular is — it’s ridiculous.”

IREN’s own transformation has made it a notable player in the AI infrastructure race. Founded by Australian brothers Daniel Roberts and Will Roberts, the company originally focused on Bitcoin mining before pivoting toward AI computing. Investors have rewarded that shift: the company’s shares climbed 285% last year and are up another 51% in 2026. Microsoft also signed a $9.7 billion agreement with IREN last year to secure AI computing capacity.

The Supreme Court of Virginia has denied a request from Democrats and state officials to lift a lower-court order blocking certification of the April 21 redistricting referendum, leaving a voter-approved congressional map that could flip four Republican U.S. House seats in legal limbo just months before the 2026 midterm elections.

Supreme Court of Virginia

On Friday, the Supreme Court of Virginia denied an emergency request from Democratic Attorney General Jay Jones to allow the State Board of Elections to certify the results of the April 21 special referendum. The move keeps in place a Tazewell County Circuit Court ruling that halted any state action on the map, which Democrats designed to flip up to four Republican-held U.S. House seats and create a 10-1 Democratic advantage in Virginia’s 11-member delegation.

The move comes as the Supreme Court continues to review whether Democratic lawmakers followed proper constitutional procedures when they placed the mid-decade redistricting amendment on the ballot.

🚨 BREAKING: The Virginia Supreme Court has overturned the Democrat gerrymandering referendum, ruling that the process to put in on the ballot was unconstitutional.

Virginia will keep their 5 Republican districts. pic.twitter.com/MK4kFd6nBS

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) May 8, 2026

The decision does not represent a final ruling on the constitutionality of the effort. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on April 27 and is still weighing the core legal questions. As of May 8, 2026, no merits decision has been issued, and the new map remains blocked.

A Mid-Decade Power Play

The saga began in late 2025 after Texas Republicans redrew their congressional map mid-decade to gain seats. Virginia Democrats, who gained full control of state government after the 2025 elections, responded with a constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts outside the normal 10-year cycle – specifically to “restore fairness” if other states gerrymandered.

The amendment passed the legislature in a special session and again in January 2026, was signed by Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger, and went to voters on April 21. A heavily gerrymandered replacement map – passed by Democrats in February – accompanied the amendment. It splits Prince William and Fairfax counties into multiple districts in ways critics called “baconmandered” and would make 10 of 11 districts Democratic-leaning based on past voting patterns.

Voters approved the measure by a narrow 51.7% to 48.3% margin (roughly 1.604 million to 1.499 million votes) in a high-turnout special election that became the most expensive in Virginia history, with over $93 million spent.

Current Virginia House delegation: 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans.

Democrats spent north of $80 million on the Virginia referendum.

Almost half of it came from Hakeem Jeffries’ personal 501(c)4, House Majority Forward.

Louise Lucas, Don Scott, and Abigail Spanberger exerted so much of their political capital to get it passed.

All to be…

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) May 8, 2026

Republican Challenge and Lower-Court Block

Republicans immediately sued, arguing the Democratic-controlled legislature violated multiple constitutional requirements in advancing the amendment:

Exceeding the scope of a special session originally called for budget matters.
Failing to provide proper 90-day public notice or an adequate “intervening election” between the two required legislative passages.
Using misleading ballot language.

The case landed in conservative Tazewell County Circuit Court before Judge Jack Hurley Jr. Hurley ruled against the measure multiple times, including blocking the referendum itself (overturned by the Supreme Court to allow the vote) and, on April 22 – one day after voters approved it – issuing an injunction preventing certification and implementation.

Supreme Court Proceedings

During April 27 oral arguments, justices pressed both sides on procedural technicalities: the definition of an “election,” the validity of the special session, and whether post-election voter approval cures earlier defects. Justice Wesley G. Russell Jr. appeared particularly engaged with questions about early voting and public notice requirements.

Democrats argued that voters had spoken and that strict procedural challenges should not override the popular will after the fact. Republicans countered that the legislature “rammed through” the process in violation of constitutional safeguards designed to protect the amendment process.

On April 28, the Supreme Court denied Jones’s request for a stay, allowing the Tazewell injunction to remain in effect while the court deliberates the full appeal. The State Board of Elections has stated it cannot certify results until the high court rules.

High Stakes for 2026 Midterms

If the new map ultimately takes effect, it could deliver Democrats a net gain of four seats in the U.S. House – a significant development in a closely divided Congress during President Donald Trump’s term. Four Republican incumbents would face newly unfavorable districts.

If the Supreme Court ultimately strikes down the amendment or map on procedural grounds, Virginia would likely revert to its current lines (or the bipartisan commission’s map) for the November 3, 2026, elections. Primaries are scheduled for August 4, and candidates have already begun filing amid the uncertainty.

The case is part of a broader national wave of mid-decade redistricting battles, with both parties accusing the other of aggressive gerrymandering.

It was only last month that Ukraine marked the 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, but on Friday there is another major threat to the site, which Russia says it is closely monitoring, according to RIA.

A massive forest fire is sweeping through the Chernobyl exclusion zone on Friday after a drone crashed near the defunct nuclear plant a day earlier, Ukrainian officials have said.

Illustrative/AP: During a similar 2020 fire a radiation spike was detected at the Chernobyl exclusion zone.

As firefighters battle to contain the blaze, local officials further say that for now radiation levels remained within “normal limits”; however, there’s been cause for alarm given the massive column of white smoke rising over the whole exclusion zone area.

Ukrainian sources did not identify who sent to UAV, but only state that the fire started Thursday “as a result of a drone crash.” The Zelensky government has in the recent past frequently accused Russia of putting Chernobyl and other high secure nuclear sites under threat with its constant drone and aerial bombardment waves over the country.

Ukraine’s emergency service agency said rescue teams are busy seeking to halt the spread of the fire, but wind has been playing a big part. “Due to strong gusts of wind, the fire is rapidly spreading across the territory, covering new sections of the forest,” the agency said.

“The situation is complicated by dry weather, strong winds and mine danger in certain areas of the territory, which significantly limits the possibility of extinguishing work,” it added. Belarusian media has estimated the fire is already more than 1,100 hectares, or over 2,700 acres.

A 2020 wildfire in the same area which was the result of arson had resulted in a radiation spike 16 times above normal levels. At the time, The Guardian had reported: 

The fire had caused radiation fears in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, which is located about 60 miles south of the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Government specialists on Monday sent to monitor the situation reported that there was no rise in radiation levels in Kyiv or the city suburbs.

So this current crisis does have the real potential to unleash higher radiation levels. That prior wildfire disaster saw the fire burn for weeks before it was extinguished.

Several prominent Ukrainian social media accounts have blamed the new fires on Russian shelling, or have also said it was a Russian drone that caused it…

😠 In Chernihiv region, about 2,400 hectares of forest are burning due to Russian shelling.

Firefighters are trying to contain the blaze and protect nearby settlements, but access is limited as enemy UAVs continue operating overhead. pic.twitter.com/StqIHZ7mSC

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) May 7, 2026

As for more recent alarming incidents at the defunct Chernobyl site, in 2025 an explosive drone had hit the protective containment shell of the plant. However, emergency crews were able to make it to the impact site on the immense roof and make repairs. Both the Ukrainian and Russian sides pointed the finger at the other for that attack.

Given that Chernobyl is a name that has captured popular imagination for decades since the apocalyptic historic disaster left the vicinity basically a radiation death zone, it could present the perfect false flag opportunity for anyone wishing to prolong and escalate the war – and nuclear officials have been keenly aware of this possibility.

With the “mini war” still ongoing (albeit with a ‘ceasefire’ in place), expectations were for a continued slide (already at record lows) in the American consumer’s sentiment in preliminary UMich data for May released today.

And while the expectations were correct in direction, once again they underestimated just how bad things are as the headline UMich print fell from 49.8 to 48.2 (a new record low and below the 49.5 expectation).

Under the hood was more mixed with Current Conditions tumbling to 47.8 from 52.5 (new all-time low) while Expectations ticked up from 48.1 to 48.5 (better than expected).

Not a pretty picture with all three indices below 50.

Source: Bloomberg

The American Consumer has been less confident…

Overall, inflation expectations eased last month: Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month, and Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May.

The drop in inflation expectations is odd since all the underlying cohorts saw expectations rise?

The decline in headline sentiment was driven by a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases.

Republicans are losing faith…

UMich Survey Director Joanna Hsu notes that real income expectations continued a decline that began in March.

About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs.

Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump.

Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.

On Friday, the Trump administration released the first official tranche of declassified UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) and UFO files through the new Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) – which of course was the alternative to the real incriminating Elite Presidential Shielding Taskforce Ensuring Impunity Now (EPSTEIN) files.

ack ack ack

The files are hosted at the official government site: https://www.war.gov/UFO/. This marks the start of a rolling release schedule (new materials every few weeks) covering decades of unresolved cases across multiple agencies, with a strong emphasis on unprecedented transparency.

BREAKING: The Trump administration releases, UFO and alien life files. These dumps are going to be a regular thing. https://t.co/nY0OoIQerq pic.twitter.com/Pipox7jSWQ

— Bruce Snyder (@realBruceSnyder) May 8, 2026

What’s Included in Release 01 (162 Files + Supporting Materials)

The initial drop focuses on 162 FBI documents, all in PDF format. These are unresolved cases where the government states it cannot make a definitive determination on the nature of the phenomena – often due to insufficient data – and explicitly invites public and private-sector analysis.

Mainstream reporting (Fox News, New York Post, and others) highlights additional materials in the broader release:

Apollo 12 and Apollo 17 mission photos showing strangely shaped objects and clusters of dots in the lunar sky.
Archival imagery from the Apollo 17 mission to the Moon. The yellow box contains an enlarged area of the original photo in which three lights are visible above the lunar terrain.

A transcript from Apollo 17 operators describing “very bright particles or fragments” drifting by the spacecraft, “big ones on my window,” and “jagged, angular fragments that are tumbling” – likened to “the Fourth of July.”

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP UFO DROP GOES DEEPER

New bombshell from the first batch of files: Apollo 17 footage that was buried for decades.

Astronauts captured bright particles and jagged, angular fragments tumbling past the spacecraft:
“There are big ones on my window… looks like the… pic.twitter.com/PoPAvwO8UK

— Big Daddy (@big_daddy_27) May 8, 2026
FBI photos from New Year’s Eve 1999 showing two black-dot UAPs flying near U.S. aircraft.
References to “the latest UAP videos” and other original source documents/photos (including a colored illustration of a UFO over a field).

Specific recent military sightings mentioned across coverage and X discussions include:

An inverted teardrop-shaped object with a vertically linear trailing mask over the United Arab Emirates (June 2024).
A “strange contrast” or unexplained area in the skies over Iraq (December 2022, per CENTCOM).

A U.S. military operator reported observing one “possible UAP” flying from west to east. The observer did not pursue the UAP – this video comes from DOW-UAP-D18, Mission Report, Iraq, December 2022 pic.twitter.com/FhwdmZLDLS

— Atlas of Mystery (@atlasofmystery) May 8, 2026
A small circular UAP flying low near the ocean surface toward land near Greece’s coast.

Video PR21 From the USG UFO Release 5/8/2026 pic.twitter.com/Sr2h9HTGez

— ProPixel Video Analysis and Research (@BillyKryzak) May 8, 2026

The Department of War (in coordination with ODNI and other agencies) described the effort as historic and government-wide, involving the review of tens of millions of records (many still on paper). Releases will continue on a rolling basis.

President Trump announced the release on Truth Social: “Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters. GOD BLESS AMERICA!”

“The Department of War is in lockstep with President Trump to bring unprecedented transparency regarding our government’s understanding of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena. These files, hidden behind classifications, have long fueled justified speculation – and it’s time the American people see it for themselves. This release of declassified documents demonstrates the Trump Administration’s earnest commitment to unprecedented transparency,” reads a statement from Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth.

And of course Russia is mocking the release:

⚡️BREAKING: Trump admin releases first batch of ‘UFO’ files https://t.co/8Ac7Bgh0vo pic.twitter.com/qBhTRdX7sp

— RT (@RT_com) May 8, 2026

Guess Epstein wasn’t (isn’t?) an alien?

Russian cities and communities are busy preparing Victory Day WW2 memorial events all across the country ahead of Saturday, and so security is already on edge and on high alert, especially in the Moscow area, given that Ukraine’s devastating cross-border drone attacks have persisted and expanded of late.

On Friday air traffic at 13 airports across southern Russia was suspended after drones struck a building at a regional air navigation center in Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s transport ministry confirmed. This was the crucial air traffic control center for the whole region, and so its being taken offline has had significant impact.

Airspace empty over southern Russia

Regional media has listed that it halted flights to and from airports in Astrakhan, Vladikavkaz, Volgograd, Gelendzhik, Grozny, Krasnodar, Makhachkala, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Sochi, Stavropol and Elista.

“The regional air traffic control center in Rostov-on-Don, which manages air traffic in southern Russia, has been temporarily adjusted due to the Ukrainian drone strike … personnel are safe, and equipment is being assessed” to determine whether operations can be restored, the ministry said on Telegram.

According to the Amsterdam-based Moscow Times, “Aeroflot, Pobeda, Nordwind and Rossiya Airlines said they were adjusting their flight schedules for Friday and would need to cancel some flights. At least 14,000 passengers were stuck due to delays and cancellations, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia said.”

“Russia’s Transportation Minister Andrey Nikitin asked major airlines to coordinate with the state-owned Russian Railways and the Unified Transportation Directorate to arrange for trains and buses to transfer passengers from canceled flights,” the report noted.

On the same day, over 260 drones were intercepted across various sectors of the country – which suggests that in total at least several hundreds were sent. Once again, some of them reached as far away as the Perm region in the Ural Mountains.

The drone waves have continued despite that Russia unilaterally announced a ceasefire corresponding with V-Day events commemorating victory over Germany in WW2. The ceasefire runs May 8-10; however, Ukraine has not acknowledged this.

Still, the Defense Ministry is acting as if it is on and it is official, having announced in a statement Friday morning that it has observed 1,365 violations by Ukraine since midnight.

✈️ A couple of drones paralyzed Russian aviation — airports are collapsing again

UAVs struck the building of the “Air Navigation of Southern Russia” branch in Rostov-on-Don. Operations at 13 airports have now been suspended.

Aeroflot is massively cancelling and delaying… pic.twitter.com/9A3B8XowAX

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 8, 2026

The Kremlin is putting the Ukrainian capital on notice, telling foreign diplomats to evacuate in the instance that Ukraine’s military tries to disrupt Saturday celebrations in Moscow and Red Square.

Russian leaders have wared Kiev will get pummeled in an unprecedented bombing if President Zelensky orders any drone attacks on Moscow. He had actually appeared to threaten precisely these events during remarks earlier in the week.

SoftBank Group’s abrupt scaling back of a planned $10 billion margin loan backed by its roughly 13% stake in OpenAI – now targeting as little as $6 billion – reveals deepening lender unease over the AI giant’s $852 billion post-money valuation set in March 2026.

The move follows earlier $40 billion bridge financing and comes amid reports that OpenAI missed internal revenue and weekly-active-user targets earlier this year.

While the loan itself is SoftBank’s problem, the episode carries real risks for OpenAI.

The clearest danger is a loss of valuation momentum (a down-round!).

Reuters reports that lenders, including banks and private-credit funds, balked at assigning reliable collateral value to unlisted shares in a company whose secondary-market demand has already cooled.

With sellers reportedly outnumbering buyers and rival Anthropic drawing stronger interest, the episode reinforces perceptions that OpenAI’s headline valuation may be frothy.

This could make future capital raises more expensive or dilutive, especially if OpenAI needs additional funding to service its enormous compute commitments – estimated in the hundreds of billions over the next few years.

An anticipated IPO, once seen as straightforward at premium multiples, might now face haircuts or heavier scrutiny from public-market investors wary of missing-growth signals.

SoftBank’s own leverage adds indirect pressure.

The Japanese conglomerate is one of OpenAI’s largest backers and has layered significant debt atop its AI bets.

Should credit markets tighten further or OpenAI’s performance lag, SoftBank could face margin calls or be forced to sell secondary shares – flooding an already thin market and driving down perceived value.

That, in turn, might erode employee and partner confidence, complicate talent retention in a hyper-competitive sector, and chill the broader AI investment narrative that has sustained OpenAI’s sky-high spending.

While none of this is immediately existential – OpenAI retains strong revenue growth, marquee partnerships, and Sam Altman’s (circular) deal-making clout – the SoftBank loan retreat is a tangible warning: private-market exuberance can evaporate quickly when lenders demand proof that eye-popping valuations match real cash flows.

If sentiment sours further, OpenAI could find itself navigating a far narrower runway than its $852 billion price tag once implied… and as OpenAI goes, so goes the hyperscalers’ budgets as the circular financing of all this spend breaks down with any chinks in the armor of of OpenAI’s exponential growth expectations.

In his preview of today’s NFP report, Goldman’s Delta One head wrote that “NFP almost feels like a sideshow at this point. You can argue weak labor data gives a Warsh led Fed enough cover to cut, but with oil and input inflation still elevated there’s also an argument that a weakening labor market alongside a constrained Fed is actually the more difficult combination for risk assets.” With that in mind, moments ago the BLS reported that in April the US added a red hot 115K, above the median consensus of 65K (and near the upper end of the forecast range which peaked at 133K), down from an upward revised (for once) 185K (originally 178K). This was the first back to back gain in jobs in a year.

The change in February jobs was revised down by 23,000, from -133,000 to -156,000, and the change for March was revised up by 7,000, from +178,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 16,000 lower than previously reported

A look below the surface reveals a less impressive picture: while payrolls rose to a new record high, actual employment has dropped to the lowest since January 2025…

… as the monthly change in payrolls has disconnected dramatically from actual jobs, which dropped by 226K in April and are now down 4 months in a row!

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations, which is odd since all major ethnic groups saw their unemployment rate increase…

… while the Labor Force Participation Rate dipped to 61.8% from 61.9%. The employment-population ratio, at 59.1 percent, changed little in April. These measures edged down over the year after accounting for annual population control adjustments. 

Wage growth came in cooler than expected, rising 0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% expected, and translating into a 3.6% annual increase, also below the 3.8% expected.

Some more details from the April report:

The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 358,000 to 2.5 million in April. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.8 million and accounted for 25.3 percent of all unemployed people. 
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 445,000 to 4.9 million in April. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 6.1 million in April. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in April. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was also little changed in April at 475,000. 

Looking at the composition of the report, employment edged up by 115,000 in April, after showing little net change over the prior 12 months. In April, job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline. 

Health care added 37,000 jobs, in line with the average monthly gain of 32,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in nursing and residential care facilities (+15,000) and home health care services (+11,000).
Transportation and warehousing employment increased by 30,000 in April, reflecting a gain in couriers and messengers (+38,000). However, employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 105,000 since reaching a peak in February 2025.
Retail trade added 22,000 jobs in April. Employment increased in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (+18,000) and in building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+13,000). These gains were partially offset by job losses in department stores (-7,000) and in electronics and appliance retailers (-2,000). Retail trade employment had shown little net change over the prior 12 months. 
Social assistance continued to trend up in April (+17,000), reflecting a gain of 24,000 jobs in individual and family services.
Federal government employment continued to decline in April (-9,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 348,000, or 11.5 percent. Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they worked or received (or will receive) pay for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.
Employment in information continued to trend down in April (-13,000). Telecommunications lost 3,000 jobs, while employment continued to trend down in motion picture and sound recording industries (-6,000) and in computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services (-4,000). Information employment is down by 342,000, or 11.0 percent, since its most recent peak in November 2022.
Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Visually:

A few things stood out here: the monthly increase in courriers and messengers (i.e. DoorDash delivery(, +38K, was the highest since covid!

Government was also notable: total government jobs have now declined every month since October, and arr down 9 of the past 10 months.

But that is nothing compared to the depression in the Information sector, where jobs are now down every months since 2024!

Finally, looking at the quality composition of the jobs report, we find that in April, the US added 123K part-time jobs, while 424K full-time jobs were lost.

The drop in full-time jobs dragged the total number of full-time workers to levels last seen in December 2024!

In short, this was a much uglier jobs report than the clearly “nudged” headline indicates, although we doubt that anyone in the market will notice when all that matters if whether memory stocks today have momentum or not.