Authored by Jeff Louderbeck via The Epoch Times,

A bipartisan crowd of Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) proponents is set to converge on the U.S. Supreme Court steps on the morning of April 27 and bring attention to the Trump administration’s handling of glyphosate and alleged health hazards stemming from use of the chemical.

Glyphosate is the main chemical in Roundup, a product made by Bayer subsidiary Monsanto.

As the Supreme Court commences oral arguments about whether Bayer should be held legally liable for not letting its customers know that glyphosate could cause cancer, the “People vs. Poison” rally will take place outside.

“There are people from every walk of life coming to speak. This should be a bipartisan issue—to have a country where our food supply is not poisoned,” said Vani Hari, organizer of the event. Hari is a MAHA advocate who has a blog and website called “Food Babe.”

“The entire movement needs to organize and tell our stories and tell the voice of what this company is doing to our farmland, to our farmers, to our future, and to our children’s future,” Hari said.

The April 27 hearing at the Supreme Court centers around John Durnell, a Missouri man who developed non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma after years of exposure to Roundup. A jury unanimously found the exposure caused Durnell’s illness. The jury found Monsanto, which has been owned by Bayer since 2018, liable and awarded him $1.25 million after concluding that Monsanto failed to comply with state law requiring a warning about cancer risks.

Monsanto’s attorneys in court filings told the justices the case had been wrongly decided due to the legal principle of preemption, which says federal law takes precedence over state laws when the two are in conflict.

A day before the president signed an executive order relating to glyphosate, Bayer announced that Monsanto submitted a proposal for a $7.25 billion class‑action settlement.

In 2018, Bayer completed its acquisition of Monsanto for $63 billion including debt.

In 2020, Bayer agreed to a separate $10 billion settlement regarding non-Hodgkin lymphoma claims.

Glyphosate is used to kill weeds and dry crops before harvest.

Glyphosate-tolerant crops account for a significant majority of the corn, soy, and cotton acreage on American farms.

Through its subsidiary Monsanto, Bayer is the only U.S. producer of glyphosate, which is the key ingredient in Roundup. It is the most widely used herbicide in history, according to the Global Glyphosate Study.

Bayer did not return a request for comment from The Epoch Times by publication.

Trump’s executive order called glyphosate-based herbicides “a cornerstone of this Nation’s agricultural productivity and rural economy, allowing United States farmers and ranchers to maintain high yields and low production costs while ensuring that healthy, affordable food options remain within reach for all American families.”

However, MAHA proponents believe that the Trump administration should devote more resources to bolster regenerative farming methods, a practice that restores soil health while reducing or eliminating pesticides and fertilizers. Last December, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Department of Agriculture announced a $700 million pilot program to help farmers adopt regenerative farming policies.

In February, the president surprised some MAHA movement leaders when he issued his executive order, which seeks to increase production of glyphosate and provide liability protections to Bayer, the company facing thousands of glyphosate-related lawsuits.

The order angered some MAHA proponents who are focused on educating people about the human health dangers posed by glyphosate and working to prevent chemical makers from getting legal immunity.

Monsanto would like the Supreme Court to rule that, under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), it cannot be held liable for not warning about a cancer risk if the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has not determined such a risk exists.

The company is also arguing that FIFRA preempts any state requirements for such a cancer warning.

The EPA has concluded that glyphosate is “unlikely” to be carcinogenic.

U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer urged the Supreme Court to hear Monsanto’s case last year.

Sauer earlier this year filed an amicus brief that favored Monsanto. He requested and was granted permission to deliver oral arguments to the court supporting Monsanto’s position.

MAHA Community Speaks Out

Kelly Ryerson, known as the Glyphosate Girl and cofounder of American Regeneration, is one of the scheduled speakers at the People vs. Poison rally.

Ryerson told The Epoch Times that she believes the Trump administration “understands the importance of the MAHA constituency, and wants to keep communication open,” but she acknowledges that the fallout among MAHA proponents from the glyphosate executive order and support for Bayer in the U.S. Supreme Court case “might not be reparable.”

“I’m hopeful that they will try to win the grassroots voters back through the type of policy we expected when we supported this administration,” Ryerson said.

The MAHA movement is propelled by a grassroots group of bipartisan voters who are focused on addressing chronic disease, ultra-processed foods, corporate capture of government health agencies, and environmental toxins.

MAHA supporters are enthusiastic about what they deem wins since Kennedy became HHS secretary. Under Kennedy, the federal government began to phase out artificial dyes in some foods, removed junk food from several state SNAP programs, replaced members of a national vaccine panel, and worked to eliminate the “generally recognized as safe” policy that allows food companies to certify new additives as safe without gaining FDA approval.

However, the Trump administration’s management of glyphosate in 2026 has generated tension between MAHA proponents and the Republican Party.

Hari commended the Trump administration for its pro-MAHA initiatives but noted that “eating real food” is not a positive “when it’s being sprayed with glyphosate.”

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) are also among the rally’s scheduled speakers. Both lawmakers are farmers. They have teamed up to introduce an amendment to this year’s federal farm bill that strips legal immunity from chemical companies.

Provisions in the measure would shield chemical manufacturers from lawsuits and “would preempt state and local warning label laws or usage regulations for potentially harmful products,” according to an April 22 statement from Pingree.

The Pingree-Massie Protect Our Health Amendment would remove the language from the farm bill.

“Big Chemical has spent years trying to buy exactly this kind of protection from Congress: immunity from lawsuits, weaker safeguards, and a federal override of state and local pesticide protections. This Farm Bill would hand it to them on a silver platter,” Pingree said.

“If a company’s product makes people sick, that company should be held accountable. If states and local communities want to put stronger protections in place, they should have every right to do so. [This] is beyond politics and party lines. Congress should be protecting families, farmers, and children, not doing favors for Bayer and other chemical giants,” Pingree said.

Earlier this year, Massie delivered an address on the House floor saying that “all three branches of this government is under siege by lobbyists and lawyers from a German company named Bayer.”

“They spent over $9 million lobbying the executive branch and the legislative branch so that they don’t have to be liable for any damages that their herbicide causes,” Massie said.

“The Constitution guarantees people a trial if they’ve been harmed. Why are we contemplating going against the Constitution?”

Massie noted that then Attorney General Pam Bondi and Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, worked for Ballard Partners, a firm that registered to lobby for Bayer in December 2024.

Trump’s executive order stating that glyphosate production is “a national defense priority” was issued to protect Bayer from liability, Massie said.

“We shouldn’t succumb to the lobbyists—not in the executive branch, not in the judicial branch, and certainly not here in Congress and not in the state legislatures. There’s a lot of money at play, and I implore my colleagues to resist it and do not give them immunity,” Massie added.

Kennedy publicly defended Trump’s glyphosate executive order after it was issued.

“Donald Trump’s Executive Order puts America first where it matters most—our defense readiness and our food supply. We must safeguard America’s national security first. … When hostile actors control critical inputs, they weaken our security. By expanding domestic production, we close that gap and protect American families,” he said.

In an X post, Kennedy noted that pesticides are “toxic by design and put Americans at risk, but the current system was inherited from prior administrations.”

He supported the move to bring production of glyphosate back to the United States from China and end reliance on adversaries while adding the need for a transition to regenerative farming methods and alternatives.

In an interview on “The Joe Rogan Experience” last month, Kennedy said he was “not particularly happy, to put it mildly,” with Trump’s executive order on glyphosate.

Kennedy noted that he has “spent 40 years fighting pesticides” and considers them poison, but he understands Trump’s position of not disrupting the agricultural sector.

He stressed that “we all know we’ve got to transition off of glyphosate” and highlighted work on alternatives like laser weed control and the regenerative agriculture pilot.

Tomorrow marks exactly two months since the strikes on Iran began. As DB’s Jim Reid writes, while there is currently a rolling, open ended ceasefire that started on 8 April, the risk of it collapsing at any point remains real. Just as the weekend news looked like it was leaning negatively though, last night reports came through that Iran have offered the US a fresh proposal to reopen the strait and end the war. However as Axios and others reported, this proposal postpones talks on nuclear capabilities. So it’s unclear whether the US Administration would tolerate that but for now the market is trading better than it might have done to start the week. This fresh development follows President Trump cancelling a planned visit to Islamabad by envoys Kushner and Witkoff, saying that the Iranians had “offered a lot, but not enough.” Iranian President Pezeshkian, meanwhile, said Iran would not agree to “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.” The coming week will no doubt bring further developments, though predicting them is close to impossible. When the conflict began more than eight weeks ago, Reid – and many others – expected it to be comfortably over by now, with markets having followed the usual playbook and fully recovered. The market reaction has largely played out, but for the wrong reasons: the conflict is not over. That said, markets still appear to price in a meaningful chance that it will be resolved relatively soon. Polymarket, for example, suggests a 56% probability of traffic returning to normal by 30 June, although this briefly reached 91% ten days ago when it appeared that Iran was reopening the Strait.

In other news, one notable development yesterday was Senator Thom Tillis’s decision to lift his block on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to chair the Fed. Tillis said he was satisfied with the Department of Justice’s decision late last week to drop its investigation into the Fed refurbishment. There had been some concern on Saturday that the DLooking ahead, with central bank meetings for every G7 country this week – alongside 42% of the S&P 500 reporting by market capitalisation, including five of the Mag 7 – it is shaping up to be a blockbuster weekoJ had left the door open to reopening the probe at a later stage, which might not have been sufficient to clear the way. However, Tillis indicated that he had received assurances that gave him enough comfort to remove his block.

In terms of overnight markets, Brent crude is up +1.22%, marking the sixth consecutive session of gains, trading at $106.61 per barrel, following the weekend news. However regional equities are strong with the KOSPI (+2.57%) now at +57.6% YTD, largely on the back of two stocks: Samsung and SK Hynix. The Nikkei (+1.88%) is also strong. Other markets are a bit more subdued with the Hang Seng (+0.15%), the CSI (+0.21%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) slightly higher but with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.14%) dipping. 

Looking ahead, with central bank meetings for every G7 country this week – alongside 42% of the S&P 500 reporting by market capitalisation, including five of the Mag 7 – it is shaping up to be a blockbuster week, even before factoring in ongoing Iranian war newsflow.

The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow, followed by the Fed and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. Thursday then brings decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. All are expected to remain on hold, but the key question will be how each central bank’s reaction function is shaped by the conflict and the associated stagflation risks. 

From an earnings perspective, 22% of S&P 500 market capitalization — across just four companies — reports after the close on Wednesday, when Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta release their Q1 results. Apple follows on Thursday.

Source: Earnings Whispers

Turning to the Fed meeting mid week, Deutsche Bank economists’ base case is that any meaningful change in guidance is deferred until June, since this is Powell’s last meeting. That said, there is a tangible risk that communication skews modestly hawkish — either through subtle language tweaks around “additional policy adjustments” or via Chair Powell signalling a more symmetrical assessment of risks to the dual mandate. An explicit acknowledgement that risks to price stability and employment are now more evenly balanced would likely be interpreted as a marginally less accommodative stance.

Geopolitics will loom large in Powell’s press conference, given developments in the Middle East. With uncertainty still elevated, Powell is likely to emphasise that policymakers cannot yet assess the precise implications for growth or inflation. However, he may also note that persistently high oil prices raise the risk of inflation becoming more entrenched over time. Overall, the tone should be consistent with a Fed prepared to remain on the sidelines for a while longer.

Alongside the meeting, Thursday’s personal income and spending report — and particularly core PCE — will be equally important. Income is expected to rebound by 0.6% after a 0.1% decline, while consumption is forecast to rise 0.5%. DB expects the core PCE deflator to increase by 0.25% month on month, lifting the year on year rate to around 3.13%. If realised, Q1 core PCE inflation will average just above 3.0%, marking five years since the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation gauge last ran at or below its 2% target. Our latest projections see core CPI and core PCE at 2.7% and 2.9% respectively by Q4 2026, highlighting how recent energy related shocks continue to complicate the path back to target.

Other data ahead of the meeting are unlikely to materially alter the Fed’s decision. Consumer confidence tomorrow is expected to fall to 88.8 from 91.9, reflecting heightened geopolitical concerns. More important than the headline will be the “jobs plentiful” and “jobs hard to get” components, which historically track movements in the unemployment rate and offer insight into perceived labour market momentum.

Wednesday brings a cluster of releases that will refine expectations for Thursday’s advance Q1 GDP estimate. Housing starts are forecast to rise to 1.425 million from 1.35 million, with permits edging up to 1.390 million. Durable goods orders are expected to fall 0.4% for the headline, but ex transportation and core orders are projected to rise 0.5%, pointing to continued strength in capital investment. Together with the advance goods trade balance, these data frame our economists’ 2.8% annualised forecast for Q1 real GDP — a sharp rebound from 0.5% in Q4.

Thursday’s data batch is the most consequential of the week, even beyond core PCE. While DB still expects 2.8% inflation adjusted growth for Q1 GDP, the composition has shifted meaningfully. Consumer spending is forecast to contribute 1.2pp, down from 1.9pp in Q4, while non residential fixed investment accelerates sharply to 7.5%. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — our preferred measure of underlying demand — are projected to edge up to 2.0%. Risks to the headline GDP number appear broadly balanced, particularly given volatility in trade flows.

Elsewhere on Thursday we see the employment cost index and the Chicago PMI. Friday kicks off May with the ISM manufacturing index and vehicle sales. While business surveys may not yet fully reflect recent war developments, they should provide early signals on whether firms share markets’ confidence that the conflict will have limited and temporary economic effects. Last week’s flash PMI suggested US businesses remain far more confident on this front than their European counterparts.

In Europe, attention turns to preliminary April CPI prints, with Germany and Spain reporting first on Wednesday and the broader euro area numbers on Thursday, alongside advance Q1 GDP. Ahead of that, Tuesday brings the ECB’s consumer expectations and bank lending surveys.

In Japan, key releases include April Tokyo CPI on Friday and March activity data on Thursday, while China sees its official April PMIs on Thursday, following industrial profits for March earlier in the week. As usual, the full day by day calendar appears at the end.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday April 27

Data: US April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, China March industrial profits, Germany May GfK consumer confidence
Earnings: Verizon, Hitachi, Advantest, Cadence Design Systems, Deutsche Boerse
Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Tuesday April 28

Data: US April Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, February FHFA house price index, Japan March jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, Italy March PPI, February industrial sales
Central banks: BoJ decision, ECB consumer expectations survey, bank lending survey
Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Airbus, Welltower, Corning, Booking, S&P Global, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, Atlas Copco, UPS, Sherwin-Williams, Barclays, Ecolab, Hilton, Robinhood Markets, Mondelez, Vale, General Motors, Teradyne, NXP Semiconductors, Sysco, Kimberly-Clark
Auctions: US 2-yr FRN ($30bn), 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Wednesday April 29

Data: US March durable goods orders, building permits, housing starts, advance goods trade balance, retail inventories, wholesale inventories, Germany April CPI, Italy April economic sentiment, March hourly wages, Eurozone March M3, April economic confidence, Australia March CPI, Sweden March GDP indicator
Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC’s decision
Earnings: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, KLA, TotalEnergies, Amphenol, Banco Santander, Iberdrola, Qualcomm, UBS, GSK, Equinix, Carvana, Automatic Data Processing, Lloyds, DSV, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Old Dominion Freight Line, eBay, Porsche, Universal Music Group, Haleon, adidas, Verisk Analytics

Thursday April 30

Data: US Q1 GDP, employment cost index, March PCE, personal income, spending, leading index, April MNI Chicago PMI, initial jobless claims, China April PMIs, UK April Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan March retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, April consumer confidence index, Germany April unemployment claims rate, Q1 GDP, March retail sales, import price index, France Q1 GDP, private sector payrolls, April CPI, March PPI, consumer spending, Italy Q1 GDP, April CPI, March unemployment rate, Eurozone Q1 GDP, April CPI, March unemployment rate, Canada February GDP
Central banks: ECB’s decision, BoE’s decision
Earnings: Apple, Samsung Electronics, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck & Co, Amgen, ConocoPhillips, Sandisk, Western Digital, Tokyo Electron, DBS, Stryker, BBVA, Parker-Hannifin, Bristol-Myers Squibb, BNP Paribas, Altria, Agnico Eagle Mines, ING, CRH, Royal Caribbean Cruises, L3Harris Technologies, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, BASF, Standard Chartered, Volkswagen, Hershey, Reddit, Stellantis, Blue Owl, Nemetschek, Puma

Friday May 1

Data: US April ISM index, total vehicle sales, UK March net consumer credit, March M4, Japan April Tokyo CPI, Canada April manufacturing PMI
Central banks: BoE’s Pill speaks
Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Linde, Colgate-Palmolive, NatWest, Ares, Estee Lauder, TPG

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the employment cost index, advance Q1 GDP, and core PCE reports on Thursday. The April FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, April 27 

There are no major data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, April 28 

09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, February (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); We estimate that the Case-Shiller home price index increased only +0.1% in February, reflecting the sequentially weaker signal from higher frequency measures of home prices.
09:00 AM FHFA house price index, February (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, April (GS 88.5, consensus 89.0, last 91.8)

Wednesday, April 29 

08:30 AM Durable goods orders, March preliminary (GS +3.0%, consensus +0.5%, last -1.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, March preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.9%); Core capital goods orders, March preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, March preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.0%): We estimate that durable goods orders increased 3% in the preliminary March report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a rebound in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.4% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting the continued increase in the new orders components in manufacturing surveys but payback for an outsized increase in the series itself in February—and a 0.6% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.
08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, March (GS -$88.5bn, consensus -$86.8bn, last -$83.5bn): We forecast that the goods trade deficit widened by $5.0bn to $88.5bn in March, reflecting a decline in gold exports and a continued increase in AI-related imports.
08:30 AM Housing starts, March (GS 1,385k, consensus 1,400k, last 1,487k [January]); Building permits, March (consensus 1,390k, last 1,386k [January]): Census will jointly release housing starts and building permits data for the months of February and March. We forecast that housing starts declined to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1,385k in March, reflecting reversion toward the level of permits following a jump in January starts driven by the more volatile multifamily category; a continued decline in homebuilder sentiment; and the potential lagged impact of poor weather in late January and February.
02:00 PM FOMC statement, April 28-29 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to leave the funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. We only expect Governor Miran to dissent in favor of a 25bp cut. The FOMC is likely to reiterate its wait-and-see message because the war with Iran continues to cloud the economic outlook and to present risks to both inflation and activity. The Committee’s post-meeting statement is likely to acknowledge the better labor market news and higher inflation numbers but to leave the standing policy guidance unchanged. 

Thursday, April 30 

08:30 AM GDP, Q1 advance (GS +3.3%, consensus +2.2%, last +0.5%); Personal consumption, Q1 advance (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.9%); Core PCE inflation, Q1 advance (GS +4.04%, consensus +4.1%, last +2.7%): We estimate that GDP rose 3.3% annualized in the advance reading for Q1, following a +0.5% annualized increase in Q4. Our forecast reflects a large boost to federal government spending (+22.5%, quarter-over-quarter annualized) from the end of the government shutdown worth +1.3pp on Q1 GDP. We expect a deceleration in both consumption (+1.1% vs. +1.9% in Q4) and residential investment (-4.8% vs. -1.7% in Q4) growth. We estimate that private domestic final sales rose 2.1% in Q1. We estimate that the core PCE price index increased 4.04% annualized (or 3.04% year-over-year) in Q1.
08:30 AM Personal income, March (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); Personal spending, March (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.5%); Core PCE price index, March (GS +0.27%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index (YoY), March (GS +3.15%, consensus +3.2%, last +3.0%); PCE price index, March (GS +0.64%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.4%); PCE price index (YoY), March (GS +3.45%, consensus +3.5%, last +2.8%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively, in March. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.27% in March, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.15%. Additionally, we estimate that the headline PCE price index increased 0.64% in March, or increased 3.45% from a year earlier.
08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q1 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.7%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.8% in Q1 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted). Our forecast would result in a 0.1pp decline in the year-on-year rate to 3.3% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), which would mark the slowest pace of yearly wage growth since 2021Q2. Our forecast reflects a roughly unchanged quarterly pace of wage and salary growth—reflecting the signals from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker and average hourly earnings—but a slight rebound in ECI benefit growth—reflecting the impact of start-of-the-year benefit resets.
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 25 (GS 205k, consensus 212k, last 214k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 18 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,820k)

Friday, May 1 

09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, April final (consensus 54.0, last 54.0)
10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, April (GS 53.5, consensus 53.1, last 52.7): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index increased by 0.8pt to 53.5 in April, reflecting improvement in regional manufacturing surveys—our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 1.2pt to 54.6—but a headwind from potential residual seasonality—the ISM manufacturing index has declined in eight of the last nine Aprils.
05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, April (GS 16.0mn, consensus 16.0mn, last 16.3mn)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tomorrow marks exactly two months since the strikes on Iran began. As DB’s Jim Reid writes, while there is currently a rolling, open ended ceasefire that started on 8 April, the risk of it collapsing at any point remains real. Just as the weekend news looked like it was leaning negatively though, last night reports came through that Iran have offered the US a fresh proposal to reopen the strait and end the war. However as Axios and others reported, this proposal postpones talks on nuclear capabilities. So it’s unclear whether the US Administration would tolerate that but for now the market is trading better than it might have done to start the week. This fresh development follows President Trump cancelling a planned visit to Islamabad by envoys Kushner and Witkoff, saying that the Iranians had “offered a lot, but not enough.” Iranian President Pezeshkian, meanwhile, said Iran would not agree to “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.” The coming week will no doubt bring further developments, though predicting them is close to impossible. When the conflict began more than eight weeks ago, Reid – and many others – expected it to be comfortably over by now, with markets having followed the usual playbook and fully recovered. The market reaction has largely played out, but for the wrong reasons: the conflict is not over. That said, markets still appear to price in a meaningful chance that it will be resolved relatively soon. Polymarket, for example, suggests a 56% probability of traffic returning to normal by 30 June, although this briefly reached 91% ten days ago when it appeared that Iran was reopening the Strait.

In other news, one notable development yesterday was Senator Thom Tillis’s decision to lift his block on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to chair the Fed. Tillis said he was satisfied with the Department of Justice’s decision late last week to drop its investigation into the Fed refurbishment. There had been some concern on Saturday that the DLooking ahead, with central bank meetings for every G7 country this week – alongside 42% of the S&P 500 reporting by market capitalisation, including five of the Mag 7 – it is shaping up to be a blockbuster weekoJ had left the door open to reopening the probe at a later stage, which might not have been sufficient to clear the way. However, Tillis indicated that he had received assurances that gave him enough comfort to remove his block.

In terms of overnight markets, Brent crude is up +1.22%, marking the sixth consecutive session of gains, trading at $106.61 per barrel, following the weekend news. However regional equities are strong with the KOSPI (+2.57%) now at +57.6% YTD, largely on the back of two stocks: Samsung and SK Hynix. The Nikkei (+1.88%) is also strong. Other markets are a bit more subdued with the Hang Seng (+0.15%), the CSI (+0.21%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) slightly higher but with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.14%) dipping. 

Looking ahead, with central bank meetings for every G7 country this week – alongside 42% of the S&P 500 reporting by market capitalisation, including five of the Mag 7 – it is shaping up to be a blockbuster week, even before factoring in ongoing Iranian war newsflow.

The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow, followed by the Fed and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. Thursday then brings decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. All are expected to remain on hold, but the key question will be how each central bank’s reaction function is shaped by the conflict and the associated stagflation risks. 

From an earnings perspective, 22% of S&P 500 market capitalization — across just four companies — reports after the close on Wednesday, when Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta release their Q1 results. Apple follows on Thursday.

Source: Earnings Whispers

Turning to the Fed meeting mid week, Deutsche Bank economists’ base case is that any meaningful change in guidance is deferred until June, since this is Powell’s last meeting. That said, there is a tangible risk that communication skews modestly hawkish — either through subtle language tweaks around “additional policy adjustments” or via Chair Powell signalling a more symmetrical assessment of risks to the dual mandate. An explicit acknowledgement that risks to price stability and employment are now more evenly balanced would likely be interpreted as a marginally less accommodative stance.

Geopolitics will loom large in Powell’s press conference, given developments in the Middle East. With uncertainty still elevated, Powell is likely to emphasise that policymakers cannot yet assess the precise implications for growth or inflation. However, he may also note that persistently high oil prices raise the risk of inflation becoming more entrenched over time. Overall, the tone should be consistent with a Fed prepared to remain on the sidelines for a while longer.

Alongside the meeting, Thursday’s personal income and spending report — and particularly core PCE — will be equally important. Income is expected to rebound by 0.6% after a 0.1% decline, while consumption is forecast to rise 0.5%. DB expects the core PCE deflator to increase by 0.25% month on month, lifting the year on year rate to around 3.13%. If realised, Q1 core PCE inflation will average just above 3.0%, marking five years since the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation gauge last ran at or below its 2% target. Our latest projections see core CPI and core PCE at 2.7% and 2.9% respectively by Q4 2026, highlighting how recent energy related shocks continue to complicate the path back to target.

Other data ahead of the meeting are unlikely to materially alter the Fed’s decision. Consumer confidence tomorrow is expected to fall to 88.8 from 91.9, reflecting heightened geopolitical concerns. More important than the headline will be the “jobs plentiful” and “jobs hard to get” components, which historically track movements in the unemployment rate and offer insight into perceived labour market momentum.

Wednesday brings a cluster of releases that will refine expectations for Thursday’s advance Q1 GDP estimate. Housing starts are forecast to rise to 1.425 million from 1.35 million, with permits edging up to 1.390 million. Durable goods orders are expected to fall 0.4% for the headline, but ex transportation and core orders are projected to rise 0.5%, pointing to continued strength in capital investment. Together with the advance goods trade balance, these data frame our economists’ 2.8% annualised forecast for Q1 real GDP — a sharp rebound from 0.5% in Q4.

Thursday’s data batch is the most consequential of the week, even beyond core PCE. While DB still expects 2.8% inflation adjusted growth for Q1 GDP, the composition has shifted meaningfully. Consumer spending is forecast to contribute 1.2pp, down from 1.9pp in Q4, while non residential fixed investment accelerates sharply to 7.5%. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — our preferred measure of underlying demand — are projected to edge up to 2.0%. Risks to the headline GDP number appear broadly balanced, particularly given volatility in trade flows.

Elsewhere on Thursday we see the employment cost index and the Chicago PMI. Friday kicks off May with the ISM manufacturing index and vehicle sales. While business surveys may not yet fully reflect recent war developments, they should provide early signals on whether firms share markets’ confidence that the conflict will have limited and temporary economic effects. Last week’s flash PMI suggested US businesses remain far more confident on this front than their European counterparts.

In Europe, attention turns to preliminary April CPI prints, with Germany and Spain reporting first on Wednesday and the broader euro area numbers on Thursday, alongside advance Q1 GDP. Ahead of that, Tuesday brings the ECB’s consumer expectations and bank lending surveys.

In Japan, key releases include April Tokyo CPI on Friday and March activity data on Thursday, while China sees its official April PMIs on Thursday, following industrial profits for March earlier in the week. As usual, the full day by day calendar appears at the end.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday April 27

Data: US April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, China March industrial profits, Germany May GfK consumer confidence
Earnings: Verizon, Hitachi, Advantest, Cadence Design Systems, Deutsche Boerse
Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Tuesday April 28

Data: US April Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, February FHFA house price index, Japan March jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, Italy March PPI, February industrial sales
Central banks: BoJ decision, ECB consumer expectations survey, bank lending survey
Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Airbus, Welltower, Corning, Booking, S&P Global, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, Atlas Copco, UPS, Sherwin-Williams, Barclays, Ecolab, Hilton, Robinhood Markets, Mondelez, Vale, General Motors, Teradyne, NXP Semiconductors, Sysco, Kimberly-Clark
Auctions: US 2-yr FRN ($30bn), 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Wednesday April 29

Data: US March durable goods orders, building permits, housing starts, advance goods trade balance, retail inventories, wholesale inventories, Germany April CPI, Italy April economic sentiment, March hourly wages, Eurozone March M3, April economic confidence, Australia March CPI, Sweden March GDP indicator
Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC’s decision
Earnings: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, KLA, TotalEnergies, Amphenol, Banco Santander, Iberdrola, Qualcomm, UBS, GSK, Equinix, Carvana, Automatic Data Processing, Lloyds, DSV, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Old Dominion Freight Line, eBay, Porsche, Universal Music Group, Haleon, adidas, Verisk Analytics

Thursday April 30

Data: US Q1 GDP, employment cost index, March PCE, personal income, spending, leading index, April MNI Chicago PMI, initial jobless claims, China April PMIs, UK April Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan March retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, April consumer confidence index, Germany April unemployment claims rate, Q1 GDP, March retail sales, import price index, France Q1 GDP, private sector payrolls, April CPI, March PPI, consumer spending, Italy Q1 GDP, April CPI, March unemployment rate, Eurozone Q1 GDP, April CPI, March unemployment rate, Canada February GDP
Central banks: ECB’s decision, BoE’s decision
Earnings: Apple, Samsung Electronics, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck & Co, Amgen, ConocoPhillips, Sandisk, Western Digital, Tokyo Electron, DBS, Stryker, BBVA, Parker-Hannifin, Bristol-Myers Squibb, BNP Paribas, Altria, Agnico Eagle Mines, ING, CRH, Royal Caribbean Cruises, L3Harris Technologies, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, BASF, Standard Chartered, Volkswagen, Hershey, Reddit, Stellantis, Blue Owl, Nemetschek, Puma

Friday May 1

Data: US April ISM index, total vehicle sales, UK March net consumer credit, March M4, Japan April Tokyo CPI, Canada April manufacturing PMI
Central banks: BoE’s Pill speaks
Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Linde, Colgate-Palmolive, NatWest, Ares, Estee Lauder, TPG

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the employment cost index, advance Q1 GDP, and core PCE reports on Thursday. The April FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, April 27 

There are no major data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, April 28 

09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, February (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); We estimate that the Case-Shiller home price index increased only +0.1% in February, reflecting the sequentially weaker signal from higher frequency measures of home prices.
09:00 AM FHFA house price index, February (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, April (GS 88.5, consensus 89.0, last 91.8)

Wednesday, April 29 

08:30 AM Durable goods orders, March preliminary (GS +3.0%, consensus +0.5%, last -1.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, March preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.9%); Core capital goods orders, March preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, March preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.0%): We estimate that durable goods orders increased 3% in the preliminary March report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a rebound in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.4% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting the continued increase in the new orders components in manufacturing surveys but payback for an outsized increase in the series itself in February—and a 0.6% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.
08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, March (GS -$88.5bn, consensus -$86.8bn, last -$83.5bn): We forecast that the goods trade deficit widened by $5.0bn to $88.5bn in March, reflecting a decline in gold exports and a continued increase in AI-related imports.
08:30 AM Housing starts, March (GS 1,385k, consensus 1,400k, last 1,487k [January]); Building permits, March (consensus 1,390k, last 1,386k [January]): Census will jointly release housing starts and building permits data for the months of February and March. We forecast that housing starts declined to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1,385k in March, reflecting reversion toward the level of permits following a jump in January starts driven by the more volatile multifamily category; a continued decline in homebuilder sentiment; and the potential lagged impact of poor weather in late January and February.
02:00 PM FOMC statement, April 28-29 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to leave the funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. We only expect Governor Miran to dissent in favor of a 25bp cut. The FOMC is likely to reiterate its wait-and-see message because the war with Iran continues to cloud the economic outlook and to present risks to both inflation and activity. The Committee’s post-meeting statement is likely to acknowledge the better labor market news and higher inflation numbers but to leave the standing policy guidance unchanged. 

Thursday, April 30 

08:30 AM GDP, Q1 advance (GS +3.3%, consensus +2.2%, last +0.5%); Personal consumption, Q1 advance (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.9%); Core PCE inflation, Q1 advance (GS +4.04%, consensus +4.1%, last +2.7%): We estimate that GDP rose 3.3% annualized in the advance reading for Q1, following a +0.5% annualized increase in Q4. Our forecast reflects a large boost to federal government spending (+22.5%, quarter-over-quarter annualized) from the end of the government shutdown worth +1.3pp on Q1 GDP. We expect a deceleration in both consumption (+1.1% vs. +1.9% in Q4) and residential investment (-4.8% vs. -1.7% in Q4) growth. We estimate that private domestic final sales rose 2.1% in Q1. We estimate that the core PCE price index increased 4.04% annualized (or 3.04% year-over-year) in Q1.
08:30 AM Personal income, March (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); Personal spending, March (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.5%); Core PCE price index, March (GS +0.27%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index (YoY), March (GS +3.15%, consensus +3.2%, last +3.0%); PCE price index, March (GS +0.64%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.4%); PCE price index (YoY), March (GS +3.45%, consensus +3.5%, last +2.8%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively, in March. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.27% in March, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.15%. Additionally, we estimate that the headline PCE price index increased 0.64% in March, or increased 3.45% from a year earlier.
08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q1 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.7%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.8% in Q1 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted). Our forecast would result in a 0.1pp decline in the year-on-year rate to 3.3% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), which would mark the slowest pace of yearly wage growth since 2021Q2. Our forecast reflects a roughly unchanged quarterly pace of wage and salary growth—reflecting the signals from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker and average hourly earnings—but a slight rebound in ECI benefit growth—reflecting the impact of start-of-the-year benefit resets.
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 25 (GS 205k, consensus 212k, last 214k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 18 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,820k)

Friday, May 1 

09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, April final (consensus 54.0, last 54.0)
10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, April (GS 53.5, consensus 53.1, last 52.7): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index increased by 0.8pt to 53.5 in April, reflecting improvement in regional manufacturing surveys—our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 1.2pt to 54.6—but a headwind from potential residual seasonality—the ISM manufacturing index has declined in eight of the last nine Aprils.
05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, April (GS 16.0mn, consensus 16.0mn, last 16.3mn)

Source: DB, Goldman

The last roadblock to Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve is getting out of the way, as North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R) said on Sunday that he’s ready to lend his support towards Warsh’s confirmation. 

Tillis had refused to advance Warsh or any other Fed nominee until the DOJ dropped its investigation into current chair, Jerome Powell over cost overruns in a renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. After DC US attorney Jeanine Pirro said on Friday that the matter would be dropped, Tillis told NBC’s Meet the Press that he was ready to move forward with the first committee vote on Warsh.

Senator Thom Tillis in the Capitol this month.Credit…Caroline Gutman for The New York Times

“They have made it very clear that the current investigation is completely and fully ended,” said Tillis. 

WELKER: Pirro says she’s willing to reopen a criminal investigation into Powell. You just heard the AG leave the door open too. But will you now vote yes to confirm Kevin Warsh?

TILLIS: I am now prepared to vote yes, with assurances from the DOJ pic.twitter.com/o5v0MlfQUW

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 26, 2026

Last week during Warsh’s confirmation hearing, Tillis made clear that he would block the nomination unless the inquiry was dropped.

Thom Tillis still refuses to blame Trump for anything: “The problem I have is that some US attorney or assistant US attorney with a dream thought it would be cute to bring Chair Powell under an investigation … the boss said he didn’t know anything about it” pic.twitter.com/WhBawG82bZ

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 21, 2026

Now, Tillis says that after discussions with the DOJ, he’s confident that the “current investigation is completely and fully ended,” and that the discussions gave him confidence that “they were not using the D.O.J. as a weapon to threaten the independence of the Fed.”

Tillis’s vote has been key to determining whether Warsh – a former Fed governor from 2006-2001 – will be confirmed by the time Powell’s term officially ends May 15. 

And obviously, he’s a lock. 

Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?
Yes 100% · No 0%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

The last roadblock to Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve is getting out of the way, as North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R) said on Sunday that he’s ready to lend his support towards Warsh’s confirmation. 

Tillis had refused to advance Warsh or any other Fed nominee until the DOJ dropped its investigation into current chair, Jerome Powell over cost overruns in a renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. After DC US attorney Jeanine Pirro said on Friday that the matter would be dropped, Tillis told NBC’s Meet the Press that he was ready to move forward with the first committee vote on Warsh.

Senator Thom Tillis in the Capitol this month.Credit…Caroline Gutman for The New York Times

“They have made it very clear that the current investigation is completely and fully ended,” said Tillis. 

WELKER: Pirro says she’s willing to reopen a criminal investigation into Powell. You just heard the AG leave the door open too. But will you now vote yes to confirm Kevin Warsh?

TILLIS: I am now prepared to vote yes, with assurances from the DOJ pic.twitter.com/o5v0MlfQUW

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 26, 2026

Last week during Warsh’s confirmation hearing, Tillis made clear that he would block the nomination unless the inquiry was dropped.

Thom Tillis still refuses to blame Trump for anything: “The problem I have is that some US attorney or assistant US attorney with a dream thought it would be cute to bring Chair Powell under an investigation … the boss said he didn’t know anything about it” pic.twitter.com/WhBawG82bZ

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 21, 2026

Now, Tillis says that after discussions with the DOJ, he’s confident that the “current investigation is completely and fully ended,” and that the discussions gave him confidence that “they were not using the D.O.J. as a weapon to threaten the independence of the Fed.”

Tillis’s vote has been key to determining whether Warsh – a former Fed governor from 2006-2001 – will be confirmed by the time Powell’s term officially ends May 15. 

And obviously, he’s a lock. 

Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?
Yes 100% · No 0%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Trouble has been brewing for UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador – despite Mandelson’s well-known past associations with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Mandelson, a senior New Labour figure and former EU Trade Commissioner, has long faced questions over his friendship with sex-offender Epstein, and these ties were public knowledge when Starmer nominated him for the prestigious Washington role.

While Starmer admitted he was aware of the relationship, he says Mandelson “lied repeatedly” about the extent – leading to Mandelson’s ouster in September of last year after emails revealed much closer ties – including allegations of sharing sensitive information. 

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

On Tuesday, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker of the House of Commons, is expected to allow a debate and vote on whether to refer Starmer to the privileges committee over claims that he lied to MPs – with conservatives and other opposition parties claiming that Starmer insisted that “due process” had been followed in Mandelson’s appointment, and that there was “no pressure whatsoever.” 

Last week, Sir Olly Robbins – who Starmer sacked as permanent secretary at the Foreign Office – said Starmer is full of shit, and that there was in fact “constant pressure” regarding Mandelson’s appointment. 

According to The Times, Hoyle is expected to allow the request for a debate and vote because the bar for doing so is “relatively low.” For example, Boris Johnson had to waive through his referral over the Downing Street lockdown parties scandal to the privileges committee because of outrage on his benches – an episode which ended his career in frontline politics. 

Starmer is expected to whip his MPs to oppose any attempt to refer him to a parliamentary investigation. However, an attempt to compel Labour MPs to prevent scrutiny of his conduct could risk a similar backlash, and some rebels are likely to refuse to oppose the referral.

Alan Johnson and Lord Blunkett, the former Labour cabinet ministers, issued a joint statement opposing a vote. They called it “a nakedly political stunt with no substance ahead of the May elections”. –The Times

Johnson and Blunkett said in a joint statement that the comparison to Johnson is “absurd” and a “waste of public money and a diversion from the major challenges this country faces.” 

Environment secretary Emma Reynolds says Starmer “doesn’t need” to go before the committee because he “hasn’t lied to parliament” – telling Times Radio: “It was proven categorically last week that [he] didn’t know that Sir Olly Robbins had gone against the advice of security vetting and passed Peter Mandelson through that process when he shouldn’t have been passed through.”

Labour, meanwhile, wants Starmer gone – but one MP told the Times that it’s “a very different matter from people choosing to go through the lobby with Tories on a vote of confidence in the prime minister.”

Slight reaction in 10Y gilts. 

Trouble has been brewing for UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador – despite Mandelson’s well-known past associations with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Mandelson, a senior New Labour figure and former EU Trade Commissioner, has long faced questions over his friendship with sex-offender Epstein, and these ties were public knowledge when Starmer nominated him for the prestigious Washington role.

While Starmer admitted he was aware of the relationship, he says Mandelson “lied repeatedly” about the extent – leading to Mandelson’s ouster in September of last year after emails revealed much closer ties – including allegations of sharing sensitive information. 

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

On Tuesday, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker of the House of Commons, is expected to allow a debate and vote on whether to refer Starmer to the privileges committee over claims that he lied to MPs – with conservatives and other opposition parties claiming that Starmer insisted that “due process” had been followed in Mandelson’s appointment, and that there was “no pressure whatsoever.” 

Last week, Sir Olly Robbins – who Starmer sacked as permanent secretary at the Foreign Office – said Starmer is full of shit, and that there was in fact “constant pressure” regarding Mandelson’s appointment. 

According to The Times, Hoyle is expected to allow the request for a debate and vote because the bar for doing so is “relatively low.” For example, Boris Johnson had to waive through his referral over the Downing Street lockdown parties scandal to the privileges committee because of outrage on his benches – an episode which ended his career in frontline politics. 

Starmer is expected to whip his MPs to oppose any attempt to refer him to a parliamentary investigation. However, an attempt to compel Labour MPs to prevent scrutiny of his conduct could risk a similar backlash, and some rebels are likely to refuse to oppose the referral.

Alan Johnson and Lord Blunkett, the former Labour cabinet ministers, issued a joint statement opposing a vote. They called it “a nakedly political stunt with no substance ahead of the May elections”. –The Times

Johnson and Blunkett said in a joint statement that the comparison to Johnson is “absurd” and a “waste of public money and a diversion from the major challenges this country faces.” 

Environment secretary Emma Reynolds says Starmer “doesn’t need” to go before the committee because he “hasn’t lied to parliament” – telling Times Radio: “It was proven categorically last week that [he] didn’t know that Sir Olly Robbins had gone against the advice of security vetting and passed Peter Mandelson through that process when he shouldn’t have been passed through.”

Labour, meanwhile, wants Starmer gone – but one MP told the Times that it’s “a very different matter from people choosing to go through the lobby with Tories on a vote of confidence in the prime minister.”

Slight reaction in 10Y gilts. 

Microsoft and OpenAI announced an amended agreement to “simplify” their partnership structure and to change Microsoft’s license to be non-exclusive and it no longer paying a revenue share to OpenAI.

As a result of the amendment, Microsoft remains OpenAI’s primary cloud partner, and OpenAI products will ship first on Azure. Microsoft will continue to have a license to OpenAI IP for models and products through 2032. Revenue share payments from OpenAI to Microsoft continue through 2030. Microsoft will also continue to participate directly in OpenAI’s growth as a major shareholder.

Here is the brief press release: 

The rapid pace of innovation requires us to continue to evolve our partnership to benefit our customers and both companies. Today, we are announcing an amended agreement to simplify our partnership and the way we work together, grounded in flexibility, certainty and a focus on delivering the benefits of AI broadly. The greater predictability in the amended agreement strengthens our joint ability to build and operate AI platforms at scale while providing both companies the flexibility to pursue new opportunities. The agreement spells out:   

Microsoft remains OpenAI’s primary cloud partner, and OpenAI products will ship first on Azure, unless Microsoft cannot and chooses not to support the necessary capabilities. OpenAI can now serve all its products to customers across any cloud provider. 
Microsoft will continue to have a license to OpenAI IP for models and products through 2032. Microsoft’s license will now be non-exclusive.  
Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI. 
Revenue share payments from OpenAI to Microsoft continue through 2030, independent of OpenAI’s technology progress, at the same percentage but subject to a total cap.  
Microsoft continues to participate directly in OpenAI’s growth as a major shareholder.  

While this amendment simplifies the partnership, the work we’re doing together remains ambitious. From scaling gigawatts of new datacenter capacity, to collaborating on next-generation silicon, to applying AI to advance cybersecurity, and more, we’re excited to keep partnering to advance and scale AI for people and organizations around the world.

The news spooked MSFT stock, which briefly tumbled just shy of $400, its lowest price in 10 days, before recovering much of the drop.

Microsoft and OpenAI announced an amended agreement to “simplify” their partnership structure and to change Microsoft’s license to be non-exclusive and it no longer paying a revenue share to OpenAI.

As a result of the amendment, Microsoft remains OpenAI’s primary cloud partner, and OpenAI products will ship first on Azure. Microsoft will continue to have a license to OpenAI IP for models and products through 2032. Revenue share payments from OpenAI to Microsoft continue through 2030. Microsoft will also continue to participate directly in OpenAI’s growth as a major shareholder.

Here is the brief press release: 

The rapid pace of innovation requires us to continue to evolve our partnership to benefit our customers and both companies. Today, we are announcing an amended agreement to simplify our partnership and the way we work together, grounded in flexibility, certainty and a focus on delivering the benefits of AI broadly. The greater predictability in the amended agreement strengthens our joint ability to build and operate AI platforms at scale while providing both companies the flexibility to pursue new opportunities. The agreement spells out:   

Microsoft remains OpenAI’s primary cloud partner, and OpenAI products will ship first on Azure, unless Microsoft cannot and chooses not to support the necessary capabilities. OpenAI can now serve all its products to customers across any cloud provider. 
Microsoft will continue to have a license to OpenAI IP for models and products through 2032. Microsoft’s license will now be non-exclusive.  
Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI. 
Revenue share payments from OpenAI to Microsoft continue through 2030, independent of OpenAI’s technology progress, at the same percentage but subject to a total cap.  
Microsoft continues to participate directly in OpenAI’s growth as a major shareholder.  

While this amendment simplifies the partnership, the work we’re doing together remains ambitious. From scaling gigawatts of new datacenter capacity, to collaborating on next-generation silicon, to applying AI to advance cybersecurity, and more, we’re excited to keep partnering to advance and scale AI for people and organizations around the world.

The news spooked MSFT stock, which briefly tumbled just shy of $400, its lowest price in 10 days, before recovering much of the drop.

Authored by Beige Luciano-Adams via The Epoch Times,

A contentious battle years in the making between Tesla owner Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman begins this week before a federal court in Oakland, California, where nine jurors will be asked to decide whether Altman and others betrayed OpenAI’s founding mission as a nonprofit artificial intelligence (AI) lab dedicated to the public good.

The outcome could have a profound impact, not just for OpenAI—the creator of ChatGPT, currently valued at $852 billion and poised for a public offering—but for the broader, dizzyingly high-stakes race to advance AI technology and dominate the commercial market.

Musk, who cofounded OpenAI in 2015 and served as an early investor, sued cofounders Altman and Greg Brockman, alleging that they bilked him out of tens of millions of dollars with the false promise that the project would remain an open-source nonprofit—and act as a safety hatch on the “grave threat” posed by profit-driven advancement of artificial general intelligence (AGI).

AGI is generally understood as the hypothetical point at which AI reaches or surpasses human cognitive abilities and can operate autonomously, which many experts warn poses an existential threat to humanity.

Musk claims that Altman and Brockman secretly planned to convert to a for-profit corporation with backing from Microsoft, a major investor to which OpenAI exclusively licensed its flagship product.

“Mr. Altman caused OpenAI to radically depart from its original mission and historical practice of making its technology and knowledge available to the public,” Musk alleged in the lawsuit.

“Altman set the bait and hooked Musk with sham altruism then flipped the script as the non-profit’s technology approached AGI and profits neared,” the lawsuit claims.

OpenAI counters that Musk agreed that a for-profit structure would be necessary to raise sufficient capital but walked away when other founders disagreed that he should be the one to lead it.

“Motivated by jealousy, regret for walking away from OpenAI and a desire to derail a competing AI company, Elon has spent years harassing OpenAI through baseless lawsuits and public attacks,” the company wrote on the OpenAI website in a running commentary on the feud.

A Troubled History

In 2023, OpenAI’s board fired Altman, saying that it had lost confidence in him after he was “not consistently candid.” Musk alleges that his reinstatement days later, after a majority of board members resigned, was orchestrated by Microsoft.

In its response to the suit’s claims that it engaged in anticompetitive behavior with OpenAI, Microsoft argued that Musk’s “evidence-free” antitrust claims “make no sense.”

The same year, Musk founded xAI and launched Grok to compete with OpenAI’s ChatGPT. In February 2025, he led a hostile, unsuccessful bid to acquire OpenAI’s assets for $97.4 billion—which, according to OpenAI’s counterclaims, was a “sham bid” meant to disrupt the company’s fundraising and planned reorganization.

The trial follows years of increasingly heated sparring on X and in the press over the former partners’ acrimonious split and ensuing competition.

It also comes at a time when Altman’s leadership has come under scrutiny following the dissolution of two OpenAI safety teams, as well as claims that he deceived executives and board members about safety protocols and exhibited a “consistent pattern of lying,” detailed in internal communications by Ilya Sutskever, the company’s chief scientist, in 2023 and more recently in a New Yorker article.

“Over the past years, safety culture and processes have taken a backseat to shiny products,” Jan Leike, a former safety leader at the company, wrote in a 2024 post on X announcing his departure.

OpenAI created a for-profit subsidiary in 2019; as part of a 2025 restructuring, it moved its intellectual property and employees to the for-profit venture. The OpenAI Foundation, its nonprofit arm, retains a 26 percent stake and “continues to control” the corporation, according to OpenAI.

Microsoft maintains a 27 percent stake in the corporation.

Musk is asking that OpenAI be reverted to a nonprofit, that more than $100 billion in damages be returned to it, and that Altman and Brockman be removed from their leadership roles.

Internal Documents

At the time of OpenAI’s founding in 2015, according to Musk’s lawsuit, Altman expressed grave concerns that superhuman machine intelligence posed the “greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity.”

The two agreed to build a lab that could compete with Google, then the most powerful contender in the field, but that would be entirely open-source and philanthropic, functioning as a safeguard against profit-driven AGI.

In 2017, Brockman, Altman, and Sutskever considered a shift to for-profit status necessary to achieve AGI; Musk suggested keeping the project nonprofit but attaching it to Tesla as its “cash cow.”

Internal communications from that time, revealed in court documents, offer insight into arguments both sides intend to make about the contested timeline surrounding a decision to restructure as a for-profit corporation.

OpenAI alleges that Musk’s inability to recall critical discussions about the future of the company in 2017 may be due to the use of recreational drugs at Burning Man, and that his relationship with former board member Shivon Zilis functioned as a secret liaison to the company, including while the board approved Microsoft investments Musk now claims violate OpenAI’s charitable trust.

Meanwhile, Musk alleges that Brockman’s private digital journals show that Brockman and Altman conspired to deceive him about the direction of the company, even as they continued to accept his funding.

Responding to an ultimatum from Musk, Altman said he remained “enthusiastic” about the nonprofit structure.

Subsequently, Brockman wrote in his journal that the turn to for-profit status would likely include “a very nasty fight,” that Sutskever considered it immoral to kick Musk out, and that Musk’s story “will correctly be“ that Brockman and Altman ”weren’t honest with him in the end about still wanting to do the for profit just without him,” according to court documents.

In another entry included in court documents, Brockman said: “It’d be wrong to steal the non-profit from him. To convert to a b-corp without him. That’d be pretty morally bankrupt. And he’s really not an idiot.”

Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rodgers of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California cited Brockman’s notes—which she said could be read as intended to deceive—in her Jan. 15 ruling denying OpenAI’s motion for summary judgment.

In a Jan. 16 post on X, Brockman suggested that Musk “cherry-picked” from his personal journal.

“Elon and we had agreed a for-profit was the next step for OpenAI’s mission,“ Brockman said. ”The context shows these snippets were actually about whether to accept Elon’s draconian terms.”

Artificial General Intelligence

In 2023, Musk joined more than 1,000 researchers and tech leaders in an open letter calling for a six-month moratorium on the development of systems more powerful than ChatGPT-4. Altman largely dismissed the letter as “missing most technical nuance” and “not the optimal way” to address safety issues.

Part of Musk’s claims center around the idea that Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT-4) has already achieved an early version of AGI.

“It is better at reasoning than average humans,” he notes in the lawsuit.

Microsoft researchers in a 2023 paper reported that GPT-4 can solve novel and difficult tasks across a range of disciplines with performance “strikingly close to human level,” and could “reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an … AGI system.”

OpenAI defines AGI as the point at which AI will “outperform humans at most economically valuable work.”

In an April 22 podcast, Altman and Brockman said they viewed the trial as an opportunity to tell their side of the story.

“I think it’s insane that he’s doing this,” Altman said of Musk. “But I am happy that we get to explain all this to the world and have this chapter behind us.”

Addressing questions of safety and human flourishing, Altman said OpenAI is increasingly focused on “iterative deployment,” which he described as “figuring out how to deploy products that get increasingly safe as the stakes go up.”

As the threshold of AGI approaches, the promise made by Altman—that the technology will create unprecedented wealth, cure disease, and benefit all of humanity—appears distant, especially for tech workers.

Meta last week announced that it was laying off about 8,000 employees, or about 10 percent of its global workforce, and closing another 6,000 positions, as it invests heavily in AI. In order to train AI systems, the company plans to deploy software to track employee mouse movements and keyboard clicks, according to reporting from Reuters.

Other major tech companies, including Microsoft and Amazon, have recently announced layoffs in the wake of increased AI investment.

So far this year, more than 92,000 tech workers have been laid off, according to the tracker site Layoffs.fyi.

Jury selection in the Oakland trial begins on April 27.