US futures, global stocks and bonds are sharply higher while oil prices plunge the most in years as a wave of optimism swept through global markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz: JPMorgan’s Market Intel desk, which moves from Neutral to Tactically Bullish this morning, says to look for a re-risking in the very near-term albeit it with higher energy prices. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 2.8% higher while emerging-market stocks rallied the most since 2022; Nasdaq gains 3.5% with Mag7 and Semis seeing significant bids as part of an ‘Everything Rally’ ex-Energy. Yet while the overwhelming mood in markets is relief, the same core challenges remain to find a resolution amenable to both countries and Goldman’s Delta-One head says he is selling the rally. Brent plunged 16% to around $93 a barrel. Bonds surged, with 10Y tsy yields sliding 8bps to 4.23% while benchmark UK yields tumbled by 22 basis points. The dollar weakened to a one-month low. Gold and silver gain. The macro data focus today is on the Fed Minutes ahead of PCE and CPI releases later this week.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all sharply higher: Meta +5%, Tesla +4.5%, Alphabet +4%, Nvidia +3.5%, Amazon +4%, Microsoft +3.3%, Apple +2%

Gainers also include precious-metal miners and financial firms, while chemical and fertilizer names fall.
Energy stocks fall due to the ceasefire: Exxon (XOM) -5.3%, Chevron (CVX) -4.3% and Venture Global (VG) -11%
Airlines rally: United (UAL) +11%, Delta (DAL) +10%
Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) climbs 8% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported third-quarter results. The earnings prompted Craig-Hallum to raise its rating to buy, citing “improving business momentum and significant growth opportunities over multiple business segments.”
Levi Strauss (LEVI) gains 9% after the apparel company boosted its adjusted earnings-per-share and revenue forecasts for the full year citing strong demand as the denim brand steers shoppers to its own stores and website.

In corporate news, Super Micro Computer launched an internal probe to investigate circumstances surrounding server sales to China. Elon Musk is seeking to have Sam Altman removed from his roles at OpenAI as part of his legal challenge to the company’s conversion to a for-profit company.

The ceasefire announcement came not long before a deadline Trump had set that threatened a major escalation of the war. “We have now stepped back off the edge of the precipice,” said Aviva’s Richard Saldanha. The rapid twists and turns of the war have led to a record intensity of stock trading, according to a measure of daily SPY ETF turnover.

Looking at overnight markets, the most dramatic moves were in oil markets. European natural gas futures posted their biggest decline in more than two years, shedding as much as 20%. Prices of refined fuels such as diesel and jet fuel — which had been the biggest threats to global inflation — also tumbled.

As part of the two-week truce, Iran said it will allow ships to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, easing the chokehold on energy supplies that have threatened to cripple the global economy and accelerate inflation. A potential snag comes from the FT which reports that Iran demands fees for ships passing through the strait and will ask payment for tolls in crypto payment. While many investors cautioned that there is still a wide gap in the negotiation demands of Iran and the US, the widespread view was that stocks have fallen so sharply in recent weeks that any de-escalation path would be enough to trigger a rebound. 

“This is also showing promising signs that we’ve dodged the worst-case scenario,” said Matthew Haupt, a fund manager at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney. “It’s a good result considering the alternatives, as it shows a willingness to get something done.”

The latest news has left the Trump Reversal Index — a gauge created by Bloomberg strategist Simon White that combines various macro indicators — back to not much higher than where it was before the war started.  Light positioning is also fueling Wednesday’s relief rally. Volatility-control funds’ allocations to US equities had recently fallen to 56%, the lowest since July, according to Barclays. 

What comes next will depend on five questions, according to Jennifer Welch, chief geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. These include whether Iran fully reopens Hormuz and whether Israel sticks to the ceasefire. Hormuz will “never go back to the way it was before,” said Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli. “Iran’s ability to shut the waterway will embed a risk premium in the price of all commodities flowing through it for the foreseeable future.” More than 800 ships are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf.

In politics, US regulators unveiled a plan to overhaul rules intended to prevent money laundering. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer promoted the creation of a US-China board of trade, while downplaying the possibility of a similar group focused on bilateral investment.

Traders are now back to seeing a strong chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Swaps are signaling a 60% likelihood of a rate cut by the year-end, compared with almost no chance seen at the start of this week. Before the war started, they had priced in more than two reductions. 

Some of the world’s largest investment firms are betting the market turbulence is past its peak and are buying bonds and artificial-intelligence stocks, while selling the dollar. Kellie Wood at Schroders Plc snapped up short-dated bonds including Treasuries on Wednesday morning. Jupiter Asset Management Ltd. is considering doing the same alongside plans to sell the greenback. Allspring Global Investments is buying tech and defense stocks that are seen as insulated from energy shocks.

European stocks are soaring: the Estoxx 50 up more than 5% and the Stoxx 600 is up 4% alongside a 14% decline in Brent crude as  markets cheer news of the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire, even if the truce is a “fragile” one. European equity sectors are mostly higher with outperformance in travel, IT and consumer discretionary. Airline stocks, which have been pummeled by concerns of skyrocketing energy prices, lead gains in Europe. EasyJet Plc and Deutsche Lufthansa AG both jumped more than 10%. Energy stocks post material losses.Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

European oil stocks plunge on an otherwise broadly risk-on day, with airlines and technology shares particularly strong after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, sending the crude price tumbling and other asset classes soaring. Luxury-goods stocks, miners and chemicals stocks also rise strongly
Close Brothers shares surge as much as 23%, the most since August, as the lender said the estimated cost of the FCA’s motor finance redress proposal is broadly similar to its existing provision
Gamma Communications shares soar as much as 15%, their biggest intraday gain on record, after the telecom services company said it’s in preliminary talks with a number of potential bidders
Redcare Pharmacy shares rise as much as 16% after the German firm’s preliminary first-quarter figures reassured analysts. Shares in Swiss peer DocMorris gain as much as 9.9%
Polish coal miners Bogdanka and JSW slump after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The move is expected to ease the energy shock, denting bets on a broader return to coal-fired power in Europe
Shares in Norway’s Yara fall as much as 13%, while Germany’s K+S drops as much as 13%, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Stocks in Dubai — a key target of Iranian attacks during the conflict — jumped 8.5%, the most since Dec. 2014. Pakistan equities were also among the top gainers, after the country emerged as a key mediator in the ceasefire.

Still, there were continued reports of hostilities, underscoring the fragility of the deal. The UAE said it responded to a missile threat as of early afternoon local time, while Kuwait’s army cited “intense” attacks from Iran throughout the morning. “Markets have been moving very quickly, setting us up for a relief rally,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. “What will happen in the next few weeks — who knows? It’s hard to believe that this is a long-term resolution.”  

Asian stocks rose for a fourth straight day to a one-month high as oil prices tumbled after a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, easing fears of supply disruptions and inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 4.9%, led by heavyweight chipmakers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. South Korea’s Kospi surged nearly 7%, leading gains in the region, while benchmarks in Japan and Taiwan advanced more than 3% each. Shares also advanced more than 3% in mainland China, Hong Kong and India. The Reserve Bank of India held key interest rates on Wednesday, striking a cautious tone as it monitors the impact of surging oil prices on the economy and pledges to curb any excessive currency moves.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.8% with the greenback lower versus all major peers. The kiwi is one of the better G-10 performers following the hawkish hold from the RBNZ.  

In rates, global bond yields are materially lower with German and UK 2-year borrowing costs down 22bps and 25bps respectively as traders scale back ECB and BOE hike bets. The US curve is in bull-steepening mode with traders pricing a circa 50% chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end. Treasury futures trade near session highs reached following gap higher at the Asia open, with oil benchmarks down more than 10% and stocks surging after US and Iran set a two-week ceasefire and Tehran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US yields are lower by 3bp-6bp across a steeper curve as long-end tenors lag front-end and belly; 10-year is lower by more than 6bp near 4.23%. Swap spreads leg higher as demand pours in for cash Treasuries, with long-end spreads wider by nearly 3bp. The US session includes 10-year note reopening; demand was strong for Tuesday’s 3-year new issue.  Treasury’s $39 billion 10-year note reopening has WI yield near 4.24%, about 2bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which tailed by 0.7bp; auction cycle concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year reopening

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down about 16% near session lows; their biggest drop since the covid crash; Brent crude fell as much as 16% and European natural gas futures posted their biggest decline in more than two years despite uncertainty about how quickly transit through Hormuz can resume. Precious metals are gaining, with spot gold and silver up 1.7% and 5.3% respectively. Bitcoin has added 3.2%. 

Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data calendar is blank; Fed speaker slate includes San Francisco’s Daly at 1:05pm, and FOMC releases minutes of March meeting at 2pm.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +2.7%
Nasdaq 100 mini +3.5%
Russell 2000 mini +3.8%
Stoxx Europe 600 +3.8%
DAX +4.7%
CAC 40 +4.2%
10-year Treasury yield -6 basis points at 4.23%
VIX -5.5 points at 20.26
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.8% at 1200.59
euro +0.8% at $1.1685
WTI crude -15.9% at $95.04/barrel

Top Overnight News

Oil headed for the biggest drop in six years and global equities surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump said the US will help relieve Hormuz traffic with more than 800 vessels still trapped in the Persian Gulf. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel supports the ceasefire but said it doesn’t include Hezbollah in Lebanon. BBG
Kuwait said it’s dealing with “intense” Iranian attacks this morning and some Arab states reported continued attacks. BBG
NATO chief Mark Rutte meets Trump today, hoping to temper the president’s anger that alliance members have refused to help. But Rutte’s own allies are questioning whether his deferential approach is appropriate, or even working, according to people familiar. BBG
Chinese imports into the US haven’t dropped as much as the headline numbers might suggest as companies slash the value of their shipments “using tactics ranging from legal accounting tricks to outright fraud.” NYT
The RBI held rates at 5.25% in its first policy decision since the Middle East crisis erupted. The RBNZ left its benchmark rate at 2.25%. BBG
Japanese workers’ wages adjusted for inflation rose at the fastest pace since 2021, backing the case for the Bank of Japan to consider a rate hike as soon as this month. Real wages increased 1.9% from a year earlier in February, marking a second straight monthly gain, the labor ministry reported Wednesday. Economists had forecast a 1.3% increase. BBG
The Treasury Department wants to talk to state insurance commissioners about the private loans piling up in insurers’ portfolios. Those state regulators have been keeping some of their thoughts to themselves.
Moody’s Ratings has cut its outlook on a $36-billion Blue Owl fund to “negative” from “stable” on Tuesday, citing redemption requests that were “significantly higher” than peers in the first quarter. RTRS
In Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, the Democratic-backed candidate sailed to a nearly 20-point landslide victory Tuesday in a battleground Trump carried less than two years ago. Meanwhile, a Georgia Democrat slashed Trump’s margin of victory by two thirds in the state’s reddest district despite losing the election — the most significant overperformance the party has seen across all seven House special elections so far this cycle. Politico

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks rallied with markets euphoric and relieved after US President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran in the final hours before his Tuesday evening deadline. The ceasefire was proposed by Pakistan and is subject to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran was said to have agreed to, while the US and Iran are set to conduct talks on Friday in Islamabad. Furthermore, Israel and Lebanon were reported to be part of the ceasefire, although Israeli PM Netanyahu later denied that Lebanon was included. ASX 200 advanced with the gains led by outperformance in gold miners and tech, while energy was at the other end of the spectrum amid the slump in oil prices. Nikkei 225 rose above the 56,000 level with sentiment in Japan boosted by the lower oil prices, while participants also digested the firmer-than-expected wages data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the widespread risk-on mood amid the US-Iran ceasefire and as Hong Kong participants returned to the market following a five-day closure.

Top Asian News

European bourses (STOXX 600 +3.7%) have expressed relief from the announcement of a two-week Iran ceasefire, with all indices gaining by over 2%. European sectors are entirely in the green, ex. Energy and Utilities. Cyclicals benefit the most, with Travel and Leisure, Technology and Consumer Products and Services topping the pile.

Top European News

German Factory Orders MoM (Feb) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. 2% (Prev. -11.1%).
French Balance of Trade (Feb) -5.8B vs. Exp. -2.3B (Prev. -1.8B).
French Imports (Feb) 57.8B (Prev. 55.3B).
French Exports (Feb) 52.0B (Prev. 53.4B).
EU Retail Sales MoM (Feb) M/M -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%).
EU Retail Sales YoY (Feb) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 2%).

FX

FX markets began the session firmly risk-on as the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, clearing a path for the “re-open” of the Hormuz Strait. Unsurprisingly, the Buck has been knocked with DXY -0.7%, as it loses its favour as the preferred hedge against energy with Brent crude below the USD 100/bbl mark. In a note this morning, Jefferies set out three potential future scenarios: 1) a narrow diplomatic Off-Ramp, centred on reopening the Strait of Hormuz under a face-saving framework for Iran, 2) frozen conflict, where the ceasefire is extended or repeatedly renewed without a formal peace agreement, with oil trading below crisis peaks but above pre-war levels. 3) escalation resumes: triggering renewed disruption fears, pushing oil prices higher, and driving a sharp risk-off move in global markets.
NZD is the clear outperformer against the USD, helped by both the positive Middle East development and remarks in RBNZ’s post-meeting presser, where Governor Breman said the MPC discussed the possibility of raising rates in April and May meetings, and the “Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting” Despite the Kiwi’s strength, AUD/USD has also been helped alongside risk sentiment and a rebound in precious metals.
GBP is relieved by the slump in crude prices, with Cable +1% at the time of writing. Markets are still expecting c. 30bps of hiking for the BoE, a pullback of the same magnitude since Tuesday’s close. The Cable rally stalled just above the 1.3440 mark; EUR/GBP has recently fallen just below its 200 DMA, and beneath the 0.87 mark – next up, 50 DMA at 0.8687.

Fixed Income

Global fixed benchmarks are soaring this morning, with upside facilitated by the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which has helped to pressure the crude complex. As a whole, bonds are stronger, and a clear curve steepening bias is seen across the complex.
USTs are currently trading at session highs, holding at the top end of a 111-05+ to 111-21 range. US paper moved higher on the announcement itself, and then gradually strolled to peaks as the session progressed. European price action has been fairly muted, with the benchmark ultimately trading sideways. From a yield perspective, the 2yr yield now resides around 3.719% (vs Tuesday’s close at 3.80%) and well below the peaks from the Iranian conflict at 4.027%. Geopols aside, focus today will turn to the FOMC Minutes of the March confab, where the Bank left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with no change to forward guidance, balance sheet plans or implementation guidance. A US 10yr auction is also due.
Bunds and Gilts follow the above, and currently reside at highs. The former is higher by over 175 ticks and within a 125.74 to 126.45 range, whilst UK paper extends gains of over 230 ticks, in an 89.70 to 90.18 range. Europe and UK fixed income has been considerably pressured since the start of the Iranian war, given their high dependence on external energy. For now, some short term reprieve across assets – and this has been reflected in market pricing, with only 2bps worth of hikes priced in for the ECB’s April meeting (vs 12bps pre-ceasefire); however, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with markets still pricing in 45bps worth of hikes by year-end. From a yield perspective, the UK 2yr yield sank at the open, bottoming at 4.044% (vs post-Iran war peak at 4.712%); GE 2yr yield now hovers around the 2.50% mark.

Commodities

The US and Iran have agreed in principle to a two-week ceasefire, brokered with support from Pakistan, under which the US will suspend bombing, and Iran will allow controlled reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump described the move as a “double-sided ceasefire,” saying most major disputes have already been resolved and that a broader peace agreement is close. Iran has accepted the pause, with its leadership approving negotiations set to begin in Islamabad, where both sides aim to finalise terms based on a 10-point proposal submitted by Tehran.
The ceasefire remains conditional and fragile. Iran stated it will halt military responses only if attacks stop, while warning it remains ready to retaliate if provoked. The arrangement includes limited safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian coordination, a critical step given the severe disruption to global shipping and energy flows. Israel has signalled support for the temporary pause, though there is conflicting information over whether Lebanon is included.
However, it is worth noting recent reporting suggests that explosions were heard at Iran’s Lavan refinery, and other reports suggest that explosions were also heard at Iran’s Siri Island – details are light at this stage. But some may begin to question whether the ceasefire has already been violated.
Energy prices plummeted. Crude futures both tumbled beneath the USD 100/bbl level following the announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire within a couple of hours prior to President Trump’s deadline. WTI May’26 resides towards the bottom of a USD 91.70-96.27/bbl and Brent Jun’26 towards the foot of a USD 91.05-109.19/bbl range. Dutch TTF slipped to under EUR 45/MWh.
Spot gold rose above USD 4,850/oz before paring gains slightly to trade around the middle of a USD 4,713-4,858/oz range. Spot silver topped its 100 DMA (USD 76.11/oz) and resides near the top of a USD 73.38-77.65/oz parameter.
Copper climbed to a three-week high, and aluminium also advanced as easing concerns over global growth lifted sentiment. 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 12,550.00-12,743.90/t range.
China has reportedly given additional crude import quotas to independent refiners to maintain fuel production at the mandated 2025 levels.
Abu Dhabi’s media office announces that three people were injured after debris from air defence interception sparked fires at the Habshan gas complex, operations have been suspended temporarily.
IATA chief said if Hormuz Strait were to reopen, it will still take a period of months to get where jet fuel supply needs to be.

Central Banks

RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, as expected, while it stated in the near term inflation, is expected to increase and economic recovery to weaken, while committee is focused on ensuring that inflation returns at a 2% target midpoint over the medium-term.
RBNZ Governor Breman said in online post-meeting press conference that the decision to hold rates was a consensus, adds discussed raising rates at today’s meeting but were not close to hiking. We were not close to hiking rates today and there were no strong advocates for a hike today. If oil prices keep falling our inflation forecast would be on the high side. Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting, it depends.
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) said sees downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation, while he is cautious on the economic outlook and noted uncertainty is elevated. Current policy rate is well-positioned to respond and rate is broadly in range of neutral. US labour market is roughly in balance and susceptible to adverse shocks. US inflation remains above the central bank’s targets and warns that persistent elevated energy prices can weigh in consumer and business spending.
ECB’s Dolenc said that if the Iran war drags on, it will be very bad for inflation and growth.
RBI keeps Repurchase Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it maintains a neutral stance.
ASB Bank now sees RBNZ raising rates in September and December of this year vs prev. forecast of a December hike.

Geopolitics

US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that this will be a double-sided ceasefire. Trump said the reason for doing so is that they have already met and exceeded all military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran, and peace in the Middle East. Furthermore, he confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate, while he stated that almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran, although a two-week period will allow the agreement to be finalised and consummated.
US President Trump posted “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process…this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!”
US President Trump tells AFP that Iran deal is complete and comprehensive victory for the US, also said Iran uranium will be perfectly taken care of and that he believes China got Iran to negotiate.
Iranian Press SNN notes of a potential ceasefire violation, highlighting several explosions that occurred in Siri and Lavan islands. Furthermore, Iran’s National Security Council says within a few hours, if firing does not stop in southern Lebanon, the air and missile unit will bomb Tel Aviv.
Iran said negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad to finalise details, with the aim of confirming Iran’s battlefield achievements politically within maximum of 15 days, with talks to begin April 10th and may be extended if both sides agree. Talks with the US do not mean of the war, according to Iranian media. The safe passage through Hormuz is possible for two weeks and Foreign Minister Araghchi said their forces will halt operations if attacks on Iran cease.
Pakistan’s President invites US and Iran delegates to Islamabad on Friday, while reported also noted that EU envoys Witkoff, Kushner and VP Vance is expected to attend US-Iran talks.
US official said ceasefire will begin this evening, but they believe it may take some time for orders to reach Revolutionary Guard units at the field level.
Iran and Oman reportedly will be allowed to charge for passage in the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire.
Israel’s Ynet cites security sources stating that Iran ceasefire will also include Lebanon.
Iran’s Supreme Leader instructed negotiators to seek a truce, according to Axios.
Iran’s permanent ambassador to the UN said Iran categorically rejects any temporary ceasefire, while he stated that any solution to the end of the conflict must guarantee a definitive and irreversible anti-aggression and establish a just and lasting peace.
The US will insist on removing nuclear materials from Iran, Al Hadath reported citing Israeli officials via Haaretz.
White House official said Iran ceasefire takes effect once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
Senior White House official said Israel is part of the 2-week ceasefire, according to CNN. Israel agrees to suspend bombing while talks are ongoing.
Omani Transport Minister said no fees can be imposed on the Strait of Hormuz according to the signed agreements.
Iraq’s Islamic Resistance suspends operations for two weeks.
Hezbollah will announce formal position on ceasefire and response to Israeli PM’s assertion that Lebanon is not included, according to sources.
New wave of Iranian missiles fired towards Israel.
Israeli military official said Israel is still striking Iran, according to CNN.
Several explosions reported at Iran’s Sirri Island on Wednesday morning; source of explosions unknown, Mehr News reported.
Explosions heard at the Lavan oil refinery (50k BPD) in Iran, Mehr reported; origin of the explosion is not known.
Bahrain sounds missile alert hours after the US and Iran ceasefire agreement, according to AP.
N12 noted reported of explosion in Kermanshah northwestern Iran.
IDF said it identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel.
Iran’s Supreme Security Council said fingers are on the trigger and as soon as the enemy makes the slightest mistake, it will be answered with full force.
Maritime Shipping Data shows traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains light and limited, Arab News reported.

US Event Calendar

7:00 am: United States Apr 3 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -10.4%
1:05 pm: United States Fed’s Daly Gives Keynote Remarks
2:00 pm: United States FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets are seeing a sharp rebound overnight following news that the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Trump posted that following a request by Pakistan, he agreed to suspend attacks against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran agreeing to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz”. He claimed that the US had already met its military objectives and called the 10-point proposal received from Iran a “workable basis on which to negotiate”. Tehran accepted the ceasefire proposal “if attacks against Iran are halted”. Foreign Minister Araghchi also announced that, in response to Trump’s “acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal”, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks “via coordination with Iran’s armed forces and with due consideration to technical limitations”. The AP has reported that the plan will allow Iran and Oman to charge fees for transits through the Strait. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif has invited US and Iran for talks in Islamabad on Friday (April 10) to negotiate a “conclusive agreement”.

Investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief that an offramp out of the war is being taken even as there’ll be various elements to watch to see whether this leads to sustained de-escalation. Will the ceasefire hold? We saw some strikes by Israel and Iran overnight though these may have been in the works before the conditional ceasefire. We’ve also seen conflicting commentary on whether the ceasefire will extend to Israel’s action in Lebanon. Can talks lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities? Trump’s comment last night that “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to” suggests a lower bar for agreement, but Iran’s reported 10-point plan includes elements such as the lifting of all sanctions and Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz that have previously been unacceptable to the US and allies. Those points also do not restrict Iran’s enriched uranium, which Trump suggested would be “perfectly taken care of” as he claimed a “total and complete victory” in an interview to AFP late last night. And in his latest post overnight, Trump appeared keen to lean into the prospects for full resolution, claiming “a big day for World Peace” and that the US “will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz”.

Indeed, the most important question for markets will be to what extent does shipping via Hormuz pick up in the coming days. For now, oil prices have plunged on the ceasefire news, with Brent crude down -13.51% to $94.51/bbl this morning as I type, its lowest intra-day level in four weeks. It had been at nearly $110/bbl before the news of Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal began to emerge but then fell as low as $91/bbl as the ceasefire was confirmed early in the Asian session before recovering slightly. WTI is similarly down -14.92% to $96.10/bbl.

In turn, risk assets are seeing a sharp rally. S&P 500 futures are up +2.48%, which leaves them less than 2% below the levels on February 27 before the Iran strikes began and +6.8% up from their closing low on Mach 30. NASDAQ futures are +3.15%, while those on Euro STOXX 50 are +5.42% higher after a weak session yesterday. Asian equities are also rallying strongly, with the KOSPI (+7.26%) and the Nikkei (+5.26%) at the forefront. The Hang Seng (+2.82%) is advancing after the holiday, while the CSI (+2.76%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.92%) are also seeing solid gains in mainland China, as is the S&P/ASX 200 (+2.71%) in Australia.

On the fixed income side, 2yr (-6.8bps to 3.72%) and 10yr (-5.2bps to 4.24%) Treasuries are seeing a sizeable rally, with 10yr JGBs (-4.9bps) posting a similar advance. Fed funds futures are now pricing 14bps of Fed cuts by December, up from zero when Europe went home yesterday. And in FX, the dollar index is down -0.92%, while gold is +2.00% higher.

Earlier yesterday, markets had traded cautiously amidst worsening headlines, including Trump’s social media post that a “whole civilization will die tonight” unless “something revolutionarily” happens on Iran’s side, as well as news of increased strikes by the US, Israel and Iran across the Middle East. US markets then saw a recovery late in yesterday’s session as news broke that the US and Iran were considering Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal. That helped the S&P 500 recover to +0.08% by the close, having been -1.2% down earlier in the session, while 2yr (-6.1bps) and 10yr (-3.8bps) Treasury yields rallied late yesterday, having been a few basis points higher on the day at the European close.

European markets had closed near the session lows yesterday, with the STOXX 600 falling back -1.01%. The more externally-sensitive DAX (-1.06%) led the declines, while the FTSE 100 (-0.84%), CAC 40 (-0.67%) and FTSEMIB (-0.47%) were also all in the red. European bonds also saw a significant sell-off with yields on 10yr bunds rising +9.1bps to 3.08%, just 1bps below the post-2011 high they had reached on March 27. Yields on 10yr BTPs (+11.6bps) and OATs (+10.0bps) saw a larger sell-off amid the risk-off mood.

Over in the UK, 10yr gilts (+7.1bps to 4.90%) saw a slightly more modest sell-off as the final UK March services PMI was revised down from 51.2 to 50.5. That marked a sharper decline than seen in the euro area, where the final services PMI was revised a touch higher, from 50.1 to 50.2. Within the euro area data, there was a notable divergence between resilience in Spain (53.3 vs 51.9 previous, 50.6 expected) and a marked decline in Italy (48.8 vs 52.3 prev., 50.9 exp), which might reflect the fact that while both countries have adopted fiscal measures to reduce the costs of the energy shock, the scale of the Spanish response has been significantly larger.

When it comes to yesterday’s US data, the highlight was the latest weekly ADP employment numbers, which showed private job gains pick up to +26k on average for the four weeks ending on March 21. That marked the strongest print since ADP started publishing the weekly data last year and equates to over 100k in monthly job gains. So that added to the easing labour market concerns after the strong March payrolls reports on Friday. US February durable goods orders also looked solid, with ex-transport orders up +0.8% MoM (vs. +0.5% expected) and core shipments up +0.9% (vs. +0.4% exp.). Meanwhile, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations series jumped from +3.00% to +3.42% in March, though this was a touch below consensus (+3.50%) and below the levels it reached after the Liberation Day tariffs last spring (3.63%). We also got comments from NY Fed President Williams, who was relatively sanguine yesterday when he said that that the war might add a tenth or two to core inflation, and that the story around underlying inflation was not much changed.

Finally, in other overnight news the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its cash rate at 2.25% as expected. The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee noted a significant shift in the economic outlook amid higher energy prices, which are expected to push short-term inflation up while slowing economic activity. The yield on the 2yr government note is -4.2bps lower this morning, though this is mostly matching the move in Treasuries.

To the day ahead now, we’ll have UK March Construction PMI, Germany February factory orders, March construction PMI, France February trade balance, current account balance, Eurozone February PPI and retail sales. We’ll also get the March FOMC minutes

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Basically we wound up at the better end of our “base case” in yesterday’s Spaghetti Western, and you could argue we made it all the way into our best case of “ceasefire” (I’m reluctant to label it that, as you will see, but it is touching on that end).

I do think we are far from a “real deal”.

In any case, markets are responding according as both sides send people to Pakistan to negotiate a deal.

Stocks are up strongly across the globe, with Europe and Asia leading the way (they were hit hardest by the conflict). 

Bonds too are having an incredibly strong day (once again led by Europe).

Crude oil is falling like a rock, as shipping is potentially set to resume.

One reason stocks didn’t seem to respond much last week to rising spot oil prices was because later month contracts hadn’t risen much.

For now, the August WTI contract is basically where we were on March 23rd, the Monday that began the “deal is on the way” theater, which will temper how much further the stock market can rally.

Any “Ceasefire” Should Benefit the U.S. the Most

While we don’t know the specific status of each country, it seems fair to argue that the U.S. can do more to bolster its position – politically and military, than Iran can during a pause. A win for the U.S. and markets.

It will be interesting to see what develops on the “coalition” side of the equation. There has been reporting/wild speculation (difficult to tell the difference sometimes) that China was involved in bringing Iran to the deal. That could be interesting if true, and if China really wants to play a role.

Some “Caveats”

I suspect that how markets and voters respond, will influence what comes next. Two things show up as “immediate” question marks around the negotiations:

The U.S. acceptance is “subject to” Iran opening the Strait. Iran has agreed to control shipping through the Strait. Both sides are “vague” enough that this could be acceptable enough to keep the negotiations going. Though it is pretty clear, that the first “walk away” moment, is likely to come from either side regarding how open the Strait really is.

Vance (who will be leading the U.S. team) has already brought up the need for Iran to “negotiate in good faith”. Since the conflict started while “technical negotiations” were ongoing, this is another signal that the U.S. needs progress.

The “Supreme Leader” who until last night, allegedly sending slips of paper with instructions to runners to deal with the negotiations, had been largely MIA (with many reporting severe wounds and questions about his power).

Israel reportedly has agreed to cease attacks as well. Israel is largely aligned with the U.S. and largely dependent on U.S. forces in the region, but largely is not the same as totally.

These are just some of the things that could cause some breakdown in talks.

Everyone’s a Winner…

Both Iran and the U.S. are claiming this to be a major victory.

While it is all evolving rapidly, the U.S. has a multipoint plan. Iran has a multipoint plan.

 Very few of the points align.

Clearly this is why they are sitting down at the table.

Both sides have clearly read the “Art of the Deal” and are approaching negotiations from a maximalist point of view.

How serious either side is on each of their points remains to be seen. Given where we were yesterday morning, it would seem that the U.S. is likely to be the first to use the threat of ending the ceasefire to get maximum leverage.

Just this morning, the President announced “working with Iran” to dig up the nuclear materials. That seems like progress as ensuring Iran cannot attain nuclear weapons should be a key goal of the administration (and the world).

Bottom Line

This played out at the “optimistic” end of our spectrum of outcomes. A very pleasant surprise.

From here the devil (almost literally) will be in the details. I don’t expect smooth sailing, but market reaction will be muted in either direction, but especially to the downside, now that both sides seem willing to play ball. Though who wouldn’t play ball when you think your demands might be met, for a one-sided victory?

I do think public reaction, domestically, will influence how tough the U.S. negotiates versus trying to declare victory and move on.

Hopefully we see significant transit through the Strait.

On the negative side of things (there always has to be a negative), it is unclear how much damage has already been done to the global economy and supply chain, and how quickly that can be rectified (especially if traffic is limited).

Now we can get back to affordability (which got better with the pause, but is still an issue), private credit, etc.

Lot of comparisons to the post Liberation Day, TACO, rally. That just doesn’t seem correct.

Stocks were never in freefall like they were then.

We have not moved too far from the highs on many major indices. So, yes, the rally overnight can continue, but the comparisons to post Liberation Day, tariff walkback, rally isn’t realistic.

Good luck and am glad we aren’t waking up to the smoking rubble of a society (which never seemed likely but was in the back of everyone’s mind).

War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, are expected to give their first post-ceasefire announcement briefing on Iran at 8am Eastern time. Watch Live:

Iran sees this as Victory

The United States and Iran have announced a two-week suspension of all attacks, and Tehran reportedly agreed to allow safe transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. It all started with President Trump seizing on the last-minute olive branch plan offered by Pakistan’s prime minister, which urged a two week extension of the US deadline before massive obliteration bombings began, and in return Iran would agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has essentially declared victory and stated that upcoming talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday do not guarantee an end to the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given supportive lip service to the US decision but stated that Lebanon is excluded from the two-week ceasefire.

Latest from Trump on Truth Social:

Oil prices dropped rapidly after Donald Trump announced the pause, with Brent crude trading just below $95 per barrel. Qatar’s Cabinet welcomed the US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, stating it emphasizes “the necessity of immediately halting all hostile actions and practices that undermine regional stability, respect for state sovereignty, and the assurance of security for maritime passages, freedom of navigation, and international trade.”

Iran meanwhile is demanding stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. So now, in essense… stability in global energy flows depends on accommodating Iran AND it will likely get sanctions relief, per the deal on the table.

Iranian state media has featured celebratory scenes in the streets:

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Breaking | Iranian television:

Trump agreed to Iran’s conditions to end the war.

Iran has officially won. pic.twitter.com/qjnt9lnTOO

— Global Insight Journal (@GlobalIJournal) April 7, 2026

Ceasefire Hailed Internationally

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X that he held a “warm, substantive” conversation with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. “I conveyed my deep appreciation for the wisdom and sagacity of the Iranian leadership in accepting Pakistan’s offer to host peace talks in Islamabad later this week to work jointly for the return of peace to the region,” he said.

“President Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran’s participation in the upcoming negotiations and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s efforts, while conveying his best wishes for the people of Pakistan,” he added.

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun welcomed the ceasefire, while Israel has instead asserted that Lebanon remains outside the agreement and continued strikes on the country.

To quote armchair war hawk Michael Weiss, A month ago Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Now the U.S. claims these are a feasible starting point for negotiations…

Pope Leo XIV praised the agreement as a “sign of real hope,” stating, “I welcome with satisfaction, and as a sign of real hope, the announcement of an immediate two-week truce. Only by returning to negotiations can we reach the end of the war,” during his weekly audience at the Vatican.

The International Atomic Energy Agency welcomed the ceasefire and signaled readiness to support a diplomatic resolution. Director General Rafael Grossi stated, “IAEA DG Grossi welcomes … a return to diplomacy aimed at negotiating a settlement on key issues including Iran’s nuclear program.” It added: “The IAEA stands ready to support these efforts through its indispensable safeguards and verification role.”

Attacks Continue? Hormuz Status

However, attacks on Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait continued on Wednesday, hours after the ceasefire announcement. Also, there’s as yet been no significant change in navigation traffic in the Strait of Hormuz today, per Bloomberg satellite data.

A global shipping industry group representing 130 companies and around 1,500 vessels stated that conditions in the Gulf remain unstable. CEO Knut Arild Hareide said, “We note the signals of a ceasefire, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved and unpredictable.”

Airstrikes have reportedly targeted the Lavan oil refinery in Iran today. The ceasefire is seemingly in effect in name only. pic.twitter.com/PdH9CrjS6T

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 8, 2026

“It is not yet clear under what conditions safe transit can be carried out. Shipowners are assessing the situation and will not resume transits until there is real security for safe passage,” Hareide added.

Will it hold?

Ceasefire day 1:

Israel took multiple waves of Iranian missile fire after the ceasefire was announced.

Kuwait reports that more than two dozens drones were launched by Iran since 8am.

UAE is currently under an Iranian missile attack.

Iran, via state media, reports strikes…

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) April 8, 2026

Earlier, Denmark’s Maersk shipping company stated that the ceasefire announcement does not provide sufficient certainty to resume normal operations in the region.

The two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire looks more like a pause in the six-week conflict than a long-lasting agreement, with language so broad and vague that it remains unclear who conceded what. The one clear point is that Iran’s reported willingness to allow vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz was enough to send crude prices tumbling from triple-digit territory and spark a global relief rally across equities and bonds.

Everyone is breathing a sigh of relief on Wednesday morning, and traders are already identifying the companies best positioned to reap massive rewards from rebuilding damaged oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf.

Shares of Chiyoda Corporation in Tokyo jumped 15.5% as traders assessed that the developer and builder of large-scale industrial infrastructure might be one of the major players in rebuilding damaged Gulf energy assets.

Chiyoda is a project developer and builder of industrial infrastructure, including:

LNG and natural gas processing plants, one of its flagship niches

Oil refining and petrochemical facilities

Energy infrastructure and environmental systems

“Fundamentally, if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the next step is reconstruction demand for petrochemical plants, desalination plants, and other facilities,” Kazuhiro Sasaki, head of research at Phillip Securities, wrote in a note.

On Tuesday, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol told French newspaper Le Figaro that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs.

Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, wrote in a note, “It is relatively straightforward to identify the countries where reconstruction will be needed, determine the types of projects required, and match these directly to relevant Japanese companies.”

A Chiyoda spokesperson was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, “Based on the situation so far, we are considering the resumption of on-site work for the LNG project in Qatar.”

One of the most notably damaged energy assets in the Gulf region was Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, where repairs could take up to five years and cost billions of dollars. Bloomberg noted that Chiyoda receives about 46% of its revenue from Qatar.

Based on various polls, Democrats are leading Republicans by roughly five to six points on the generic congressional ballot. While this certainly means they have an advantage, the numbers actually show real trouble for the Democrats for this year’s midterm elections.

And even CNN isn’t trying to sugarcoat it for the Democratic Party.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten took a hard look at the numbers, and the picture for Democrats is not what most might expect. They should have a much bigger lead, and the fact that they don’t is a huge red flag.

“This lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president,” Enten pointed out. “On average, their lead is actually slightly less. It’s five points. That’s less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points.”

According to Enten, there’s a huge disparity between how Democrats are performing in generic congressional ballot polling and President Donald Trump’s approval ratings. Trump’s net approval rating is somewhere between -20 and -30 points. This is not a strong position for the party in power. Combined with the historical precedent that midterm elections usually favor the minority party, the numbers should spell disaster for the Republican Party, but it’s not.

“You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead, and they’re just only sort of slightly ahead.“

A small shift might be enough for Democrats to take the House, but the Senate is a completely different animal, and according to Enten, the numbers suggest Democrats’ hopes of winning the Senate are not good.

The math is brutal. Even in a blue wave scenario where Democrats flip every competitive seat, Republicans would still hold the Senate 51-49 because Trump carried states like Ohio, Texas, and Alaska by more than ten points. In this scenario, Democrats would pick up North Carolina and Maine, which would be a huge let down for the GOP, but that’s not enough to flip the upper chamber. 

For years, Democrats have fantasized about flipping Texas, and they think that James Talarico is the perfect candidate to make it happen. But as Enten noted, Democrats have never been able to flip Senate seats that Trump won by 10 points or more.

So, what’s holding the Democrats back? Favorability, or the lack thereof. 

In 2018, Democrats held a 12-point net favorability advantage over Republicans at this stage of the cycle. In 2006, that gap was 18 points. Today? Republicans are actually ahead on net favorability by five points.

“Democrats are just, simply put, running behind their previous benchmarks,” Enten said, “and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate.”

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Even CNN was just forced to report that REPUBLICANS are leading net favorability by +5 points ahead of the 2026 midterms

That is HUGE, given in 2018, Democrats were +12

“Look at this. Party ahead, midterm year with GOP president? Republicans actually AHEAD by 5… pic.twitter.com/CgfJqWYezB

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 6, 2026

Democrats have spent months positioning themselves as the resistance to Trump’s second term, betting that public anger at the administration would carry them into the majority and give them the power actually to block his agenda. But if voters dislike Democrats even more than they dislike Republicans, that entire strategy blows up. A six-point generic ballot lead just won’t cut it if Democrats want to win back the Senate.

This, of course, is a huge problem for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, whose future in party leadership is in doubt. Senate Democrats are growing increasingly restless with him – and more importantly, with the strategy he’s banking on for the midterms. 

Schumer has been supporting more centrist picks he believes have a better shot at winning their elections, while more progressive candidates are being sidelined. According to reports, some lawmakers have already begun informally counting votes to see whether there’s enough support to make a move. He may have the votes to survive a challenge now, but if Democrats fail to win back the Senate, the blame is going to land squarely on him.

Even without control of the Senate, Donald Trump still holds a powerful advantage where it matters most: the courts. Democrats no longer have the judicial filibuster at their disposal, which means they’ve lost one of their last tools for stalling or blocking nominees. So even if they manage to flip the House, it won’t stop Trump from reshaping the judiciary. Judicial confirmations—and even potential Supreme Court appointments – can still move forward, ensuring his influence on the courts endures well beyond his time in office.

Via Remix News,

Secret service documents allegedly prove that the Ukrainians planned to blow up the Turkish and Blue Stream pipelines years ago, permanently cutting Europe off from cheap Russian gas, reports Magyar Nemzet, citing a report out of Ellenpont.

However, Serbia’s intelligence chief is denying that Ukrainians were the perpetrators, instead claiming that they had reports of a possible attack planned by a certain migrant gang group of radical muslims but had not considered it legitimate intel.

However, this same chief also does not rule out that Ukraine was the contractor behind the scheme.

The Serbian section of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline was set on fire in a sabotage operation on Sunday.

Since this pipeline supplies Hungary with gas, blowing up the pipeline would have put the country’s gas supply at risk.

The portal also reported that, in response to the explosives found near the TurkStream pipeline in Serbia last weekend, a presenter on one of Zelensky’s propaganda TV stations stated: “If the Ukrainians want to blow up the Turkish Stream, they will blow it up.”

President Zelensky has been accused by Budapest of openly interfering in the Hungarian elections by creating an energy crisis to help opposition leader Péter Magyar. Kyiv wants to cut Hungary off from all Russian oil, and they are counting on Magyar’s Tisza Party to do this.

Since January, Kyiv has refused to reopen the Druzhba after a Russian attack, with Hungary and Slovakia claiming Zelensky is keeping the pipeline closed on purpose. Back in August last year, after a Ukrainian attack on part of the pipeline in Russia, the section was repaired quickly, and Hungary’s foreign minister made it clear that they expected no further attacks on such vital energy infrastructure.

In September 2022, when the Ukrainians destroyed Nord Stream, they were allegedly planning a double attack, writes Magyar Nemet, with the other target being the TurkStream.

“This pipeline is essential for Hungary’s natural gas supply, as 56 percent, or more than half, of the natural gas in our system comes through the Turkish Stream pipeline,” wrote Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó after the incident.

Calling the situation “extremely serious,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said, “We are currently under a Ukrainian gas blockade, but we can make up for the loss from the south. If this umbilical cord is cut, the Hungarian economy will come to a standstill.”

Read more here…

Goldman analysts warned that the petrochemical supply shock sweeping across Asia is now morphing into a full-blown COGS shock, hitting a range of industries with factories across the region. The immediate consequence is that manufacturers – from sofa makers to apparel producers – are being forced to dial back production and, in some cases, idle plants altogether as soaring petrochemical-linked input costs drive up the price of plastics and other key materials.

In the note “Petrochemical Supply Shock Begins Idling Asian Factories“, we laid out earlier on Tuesday how the shock is unfolding.

Now, we focus on industries where the COGS shock is already forcing “surging input costs,” which are reducing manufacturing lines or idling plants and leading to possible shortages.

“With key raw materials and inputs such as PTA, Caprolactam, polyester, and polyamide up on average 29%, the implied COGS increase amounts to c. +17%,” Goldman analyst Georgina Fraser wrote in a note.

Fraser warned, “For a textile manufacturer operating with margins of ~5–15%, it is reasonable to assume that a cost shock of this magnitude could render operations uneconomic, leading to production standstills.”

Fraser outlined that the industries most affected by the COGS shock are:

Furniture & bedding → costs up ~21%

Consumer goods → 20%

Healthcare equipment → ~19%

Textiles/apparel → ~17%

“Even an imminent end to the conflict would not fully unwind the supply chain disruption already in motion,” she warned.

The note cited new indications that India’s textile production has “collectively moved to restrict operations to a single 12-hour shift per day.”

Taken together, the message is clear: supply-chain snarls may soon erupt across Asia (first outlined here). Reducing production lines and idling plants increases the risk of shortages across a broad range of Asian-produced consumer goods, from T-shirts to furniture.

At a time when waterways like the Strait of Hormuz have occupied almost every headline and have been the impetus behind a good portion of the ongoing conflict in Iran, Kraken Robotics has successfully completed a new demonstration of its autonomous mine countermeasure technology, highlighting the growing role of unmanned systems in maritime security.

The company announced that its KATFISH towed synthetic aperture sonar system, along with its autonomous launch and recovery system (LARS), was fully integrated and tested aboard SEFINE’s RD-22 unmanned surface vessel. The demonstration was carried out in partnership with SEFINE SISAM, the company’s Strategic Unmanned Systems Research Center, during the first quarter of 2026 off the coast of İstanbul, Türkiye.

The trial showcased how autonomous platforms can be used to detect and classify underwater threats more efficiently. According to Kraken Robotics, the exercise focused on identifying mine-like objects and monitoring critical subsea infrastructure—capabilities that are becoming increasingly important as global attention turns to protecting maritime routes and underwater assets.

Bernard Mills, Kraken’s Executive Vice President of Defence, said the demonstration reflects the urgent need for advanced tools to secure key waterways. He noted that combining SEFINE’s multi-role unmanned surface vessel with Kraken’s sonar and launch system allows navies to deploy high-performance mine countermeasure technologies more quickly and with greater flexibility.

During the test, the KATFISH system delivered high-resolution sonar imagery with precision down to 3 by 3 centimeters, scanning areas up to 200 meters on each side. The data was transmitted live to an onshore command center, where operators used SEFINE SISAM’s mission planning software to analyze and classify potential threats in real time.

The event drew representatives from multiple navies and government organizations, underscoring international interest in next-generation autonomous defence systems.

This latest demonstration builds on earlier trials conducted in November 2025, when the same KATFISH and LARS setup was deployed from a Royal Navy ARCIMS unmanned surface vessel. Together, these successful integrations mark a significant step toward more agile, modular, and cost-effective solutions for modern mine countermeasure operations.

Kraken Robotics develops advanced subsea technologies, including 3D imaging sensors, robotic systems, and power solutions designed to operate safely and efficiently in challenging ocean environments. Its portfolio—featuring synthetic aperture sonar, sub-bottom imaging, LiDAR, and high-density pressure-tolerant batteries—supports applications in ocean safety, infrastructure inspection, and subsea energy storage.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Mass immigration is once again exposing the true cost to British taxpayers, with UK schools now receiving a record £572 million to support pupils who do not speak English as their first language.

The bill has soared by £157 million since modern records began in 2020, according to Department for Education figures. This comes as the number of such pupils has climbed to 1.8 million – one in five children nationwide – up from 1.2 million a decade ago.

As revealed in a Daily Mail report, two schools alone – one in Manchester and one in Northampton – each collected at least £500,000 this year for translators, bilingual teaching assistants and support materials. Manchester Academy topped the list with over £670,000.

Schools are pocketing up to £700,000 each to teach pupils who don’t speak English as their first language as bill hits all-time high of £572million https://t.co/4CqpGL8bOG

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) April 4, 2026

The funding is not ring-fenced and councils admit it can be spent on “almost anything” within a school’s overall budget. Nationwide, the average payout sits at around £27,418 per school, or roughly £320 per eligible pupil.

This latest education bombshell ties directly into the wider crisis of unchecked migration straining every corner of British life.

As we’ve highlighted, migrants are set to swallow 40% of all new UK homes by 2030, based on Conservative analysis of Office for Budget Responsibility projections. 

With net migration forecast at 1.2 million between 2026 and 2030, around 500,000 extra homes will be needed just to house new arrivals – equating to nearly four in ten of all projected builds.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to taxpayer exploitation.

A whopping 1.3 million migrants are on Universal Credit, with over half unemployed – directly contradicting years of claims that immigration delivers a net economic boost.

Benefits costs have doubled in just five years, prompting Reform UK leader Nigel Farage to slam the prioritisation of migrant payouts over British pensioners.

A massive 1.158 million foreign claimants are draining public funds on an industrial scale

As we’ve further documented, small UK towns are finding themselves suddenly inundated with hundreds of illegal migrants and the social fallout is evident with foreigners accounting for 79 per cent of theft arrests and 40 per cent of violent suspects on UK trains, and migrants being 3.5 times more likely to be arrested for sex crimes than native Brits.

Back in the classroom, the education funding surge has sparked sharp criticism. Chris McGovern of the Campaign for Real Education told the Daily Mail: “Stop pitying them, we obsess about it far too much and we don’t need to fret about them – we need to worry about the white working-class kids.”

He added: “Of course children who don’t have the requisite English language skills need to be assimilated and have time and money spent but that should come before they enter the school system.”

McGovern continued: “We have consistent and obvious annual evidence that it is the white working-class children who perform worse and need numeracy and literacy support, if there is money to be going around. A lack of imagination is the big problem with the educational world but however we tackle it we need to focus on the right group – don’t pity the immigrant, they are the education system’s biggest success story.”

Just one in five white working-class pupils achieve a good pass in English and maths, compared to 45.4 per cent across all demographics. Yet the system continues to pour resources into English as an Additional Language (EAL) provision, which now features in Ofsted inspections.

A Department for Education spokesman responded: “Every child deserves a high-quality education, including children who speak English as an additional language. We trust schools, who know their pupils best, to make decisions about how to invest their funding to support every child while getting the best value for money from overall resources.”

Critics argue the real priority should be British children whose communities are being transformed beyond recognition. The same open-borders policies driving the housing crunch, welfare explosion and crime spikes are now turning classrooms into translation hubs at massive public expense.

Britain cannot keep subsidising mass immigration while its own working-class children and struggling towns are pushed to the back of the queue. The numbers don’t lie – and neither do the consequences.

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