A trader who made a large bet on a stocks rocketing in the coming weeks is up about $23 million in paper profit today, according to Bloomberg.

The unknown trader spent $12 million premium on 6800 lots of 6950 S&P 500 Index Options (SPX) calls for May 8 expiry, when the index was at 6556.21; the trade was executed around 10:20 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, just hours before Trump’s announcement of a 2-week ceasefire which sent stocks soaring. 

The trade was an “example of upside chasing on hopes of an imminent peace deal”, said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives intelligence, in an email Tuesday. 

Following the ceasefire deal last night, stocks surged, with the long SPX 6950 position now trading at $50, Bloomberg pricing data indicates.

That makes the position worth $35 million as of noon on April 8, with the S&P 500 at 6773, or a $23 million profit net of the premium paid. 

Authored by Michael Lebowtiz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash. Given the massive growth in AI investments, as shown in the graphs below, executives of leading companies at the forefront of AI development must be ecstatic about the prospect of AI significantly boosting their bottom lines.

The puzzling question, however, is why Apple isn’t following suit. Or could they be taking a different approach to winning the AI arms race?

Apple Avoids The AI Spending Boom

Apple is one of the world’s most profitable companies. Over the last four quarters, they reported over $400 billion in annual revenue and nearly $100 billion of free cash flow. Furthermore, the company holds $65 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $77 billion in marketable securities.  The bottom line is that Apple can easily self-fund AI innovation on a massive scale, as its competitors are doing. Yet it hasn’t.

Rather than mimicking its peers, Apple appears content to let the AI landscape mature before committing significant capital. Restraint may seem like complacency or even negligence. However, Apple has a long and extremely successful history of deploying capital at the right time; when the profit outlook is clear, the technology is established, and the customer value proposition is well-defined.

This approach may be frustrating for Apple shareholders in the short term, but history and the chart below, comparing Apple to the S&P 500, suggest it has served them extremely well.

Apple’s Historical Playbook

Apple has rarely been first to introduce a new product. It was not the first personal computer company, the first smartphone maker, or the first to launch wireless earbuds, smartwatches, or VR headsets. In nearly every case, Apple waited while other companies experimented and helped define the product and the market.

Apple waited to understand what consumers wanted in a product.  Only after the uses of a new product became obvious and consumer demand was proven did Apple step in with well-designed products that emphasized reliability, usability, and profitability. Their goal has always been not to be the biggest producer of a product but to be the best. In most cases, they have lived up to that lofty goal.

The timeline below shows the various smartphones that preceded Apple’s iPhone. Given the smartphone landscape today and the fate of the products that preceded the iPhone, it’s fair to say that Apple’s patience was well rewarded.

Discipline May Win The AI Game

Today’s generative AI ecosystem is still in its experimental phase. Training costs are enormous, inference costs remain high, and business models are largely unproven. Many AI products may be impressive, but have produced limited revenue.

Instead of competing with the likes of Microsoft, Meta, and Google, Apple appears to be integrating AI incrementally. They are embedding AI into existing hardware, operating systems, and services rather than creating standalone, capital-intensive platforms. This allows its products to stay competitive without fundamentally altering its cost structure.

This approach takes Apple out of the AI limelight, which has at times weighed on the stock price.

Waiting For Clarity

There are good reasons to wait for AI to better define itself before Apple spends hundreds of billions on strategies that may not prove profitable. For example:

Monetization: While AI can clearly improve productivity and user engagement, it remains unclear how much consumers are willing to pay for it directly.

Legal/regulatory: Data privacy, intellectual property disputes, model accountability, and regulatory limitations are evolving areas of law and public policy. Apple, whose brand is closely tied to trust and privacy, could lose more than most companies from missteps in these areas.

Capital flexibility: By not locking itself into massive investments today, Apple retains the capital flexibility to invest rapidly once AI technology better defines itself and the economics become more apparent.

The Long View

For the impatient investor or trader, Apple’s approach probably feels underwhelming, especially amongst the daily headlines proclaiming AI innovation and trillion-dollar opportunities. But, for investors with patience, history suggests that Apple’s greatest successes have come not from being first, but from entering markets when technology, consumer readiness, and profitability align.

In our article, AI Bubble: History Says Caution Is Warranted, we discussed how many game-changing innovations, such as AI, are often accompanied by a financial bubble. Furthermore, for understanding Apple’s AI strategy, it has historically been far from certain that the front-runners, initially touted as the biggest beneficiaries of the innovation, will be the long-term winners.  To wit:

In 1999, few, if any, investors had ever heard of Google. The term for an internet search, “Googling,” was not yet a thing. Today, Google has a 90+% share of the search engine volume, and many of its early competitors no longer exist. 

Might Apple be taking a page out of Google’s playbook and waiting in the weeds for the AI industry to mature?

Might Apple be the next Google?

Summary

In the early stages of a technology buildout, infrastructure tends to capture the most value. This time appears similar, with the chipmaker Nvidia posting extraordinary returns and investors fawning over the big data center players like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google. However, over time, value typically migrates toward the technology’s application. Understanding where we are in that migration from infrastructure to application is important.

In our opening section, we asked if Apple executives share the same enthusiasm for AI as their chief competitors. The answer may be that Apple executives understand something their peers do not; the race rarely goes to whoever is first out of the gate.

Blue Owl stocks is getting slammed this morning, erasing all early gains, after Moody’s Ratings cut its outlook on a $36-billion Blue Owl non-traded fund to “negative” from “stable” on Tuesday, citing redemption requests that were significantly higher than at peers in the first quarter. Moody’s also said the change in the outlook on Blue Owl Credit Income Corp (OCIC) is ​due to the majority of the redemption requests coming from a very limited number of investors, revealing some concentration in ​the equity-holder base.

The downgrade highlights ​the mounting strains in the $2 trillion private credit industry after a strong run, as jittery retail investors bail out amid ‌rising concerns around transparency, lending standards and valuations.

As we noted recently, having started the firesale in the private credit in February, the decision has since backfired on Blue Owl, leading to an unprecedented surge in redemptions, which hit a record 40.7% for the Blue Owl Technology Income Corp, and 22% for the Blue Owl Credit Income Corp. 

In response, OCIC, Blue Owl’s biggest business development company (BDC), had said about 90% of the investors did ⁠not request to redeem in the first quarter, which, however, is precisely one of the main concerns for Moody’s which cautioned about concentration risk. OCIC investors sought to redeem 21.9% of shares in the first quarter, significantly higher ​than the 5.2% redemption requests received in the fourth quarter.

Moody’s said it expects elevated redemptions to persist in the coming quarters and inflows ​could slow further, resulting in the dissipation of OCIC’s currently strong capital and liquidity positions.

Blue Owl has previously said there was a “meaningful disconnect” between public sentiment on private credit funds and the underlying performance of its portfolio, although as we explained previously, the company may be simply delaying the inevitable asset remarking as a mere 20% drop in underlying asset values would breach key regulatory ratios. 

Earlier on Tuesday, Moody’s had revised its outlook on US all  BDCs to “negative” from “stable”, citing rising redemption pressures, ​higher leverage and weakening access to funding markets.

Non-traded perpetual BDCs, like OCIC, have grown rapidly in the past few years as alternative ​asset managers aggressively expanded in the wealth channel and focused on retail and high-net-worth investors, who are increasingly buying private assets.

But retail investors tend to be ‌less ⁠patient and predictable compared to institutional investors during periods of volatility.

Such investment vehicles offer lower volatility compared to publicly traded BDCs, but investors have to contend with lower liquidity.

As we have repeatedly discussed, Blue Owl has become the poster child for private credit funds that are struggling with an elevated level of redemptions. Its stock has more than halved over the past 12 months and is trading near record low, and on Wednesday it reversed all early gains and was trading down 1%, if still above its record lows hit last week.

Its handling of some ​of its private credit funds in ​recent months also attracted intense ⁠scrutiny and raised concerns about liquidity for such vehicles.

Blue Owl had last year planned to merge its publicly traded fund Blue Owl Capital Corp with a non-public fund called Blue Owl Capital Corp II, ​but called off the deal after a plan to freeze withdrawals ahead of the transaction rattled investors. 

The ​firm earlier this ⁠year replaced quarterly redemptions at OBDC II with promised payouts. It also sold $1.4 billion in assets from three of its credit funds to a consortium of investors which included an affiliated insurer, to return capital to investors and pay down debt. Concerns promptly emerged that the less than “arms length” transaction had cherry picked the best assets, leaving investors stuck with underperforming software exposure. 

OBDC II is a finite-life non-traded BDC and the fund was due to give a full liquidity event ⁠to investors ​within three-to-four years of the completion of its public offering, which runs through 2026.

Last ​month, S&P Global revised the outlook on Cliffwater’s $33 billion flagship private credit fund to “negative” over higher investor redemption requests.

After yesterday’s impressive 3Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $39 billion in benchmark, 10Y paper, in what was a mediocre auction.

The auction, a 9-Year 10-Month reopening of cusip CPX8, stopped at a high yield of 4.282%, up from 4.217% last month and the highest since last August. It also tailed the When Issued 4.280% by 0.2bps, the third consecutive tail in a row.

The bid to cover dipped to 2.429 from 2.449, and was also below the six-auction average of 2.48.

The internals also disappointed, as foreign demand slumped from March with Indirects awarded 65.32%, down from 74.45%, and below the recent average of 68.78%. Directs offset much of this drop, rising to 23.88%, almost double the 12.83% in March and the highest since January. Dealers were left holding 10.8%, down from 12.7% the previous month, but in line with the average of 10.05%.

Overall this was a slightly subpar auction, especially after yesterday’s stellar 3Y auction, but in light of the bid drop in yields across the curve and the lack of concession, it priced roughly where it should have and the market has barely reacted as one would expect.

After yesterday’s impressive 3Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $39 billion in benchmark, 10Y paper, in what was a mediocre auction.

The auction, a 9-Year 10-Month reopening of cusip CPX8, stopped at a high yield of 4.282%, up from 4.217% last month and the highest since last August. It also tailed the When Issued 4.280% by 0.2bps, the third consecutive tail in a row.

The bid to cover dipped to 2.429 from 2.449, and was also below the six-auction average of 2.48.

The internals also disappointed, as foreign demand slumped from March with Indirects awarded 65.32%, down from 74.45%, and below the recent average of 68.78%. Directs offset much of this drop, rising to 23.88%, almost double the 12.83% in March and the highest since January. Dealers were left holding 10.8%, down from 12.7% the previous month, but in line with the average of 10.05%.

Overall this was a slightly subpar auction, especially after yesterday’s stellar 3Y auction, but in light of the bid drop in yields across the curve and the lack of concession, it priced roughly where it should have and the market has barely reacted as one would expect.

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

A “shocking” number of former female employees and interns are preparing to come forward to accuse Rep. Eric Swalwell (|D-Calif.) of sexual misconduct, according to a Democrat activist.

Cheyenne Hunt, a lawyer, former congressional candidate and executive director of the left-wing nonprofit Gen-Z for Change, revealed on X Sunday, that she has been working with a number of women who are in the process of sharing their accusations with major news outlets. Hunt said she knew of a separate and “much larger group” of women who are also currently in the process of sharing their stories.

Swalwell’s alleged inappropriate sexual behavior is said to be an “open secret” in Washington DC, as is his alleged practice of forcing underlings to sign nondisclosure agreements.

Hunt posted an initial video on Instagram in late March accusing Swalwell of having “a known history of being predatory towards women.”  She cited a woman who told her: “You know Eric Swalwell has slept with many of his interns and makes them all sign NDAs so they don’t speak up, right? And when I was 19 he tried hitting on me and sliding into my DMs and I have so many other friends that have similar experiences with him.”

Hunt said the allegation was “not an anomaly” but “part of a pattern.”

After that video was posted, she said a “pretty shocking” number of “credible” women came forward with more stories and she connected them “with the investigative reporting teams who have been working on breaking this for years.”

“Anyone who has been in DC for five minutes knows this,” said Democrat campaign advisor Bri Gillis on X. “It’s actually wild it took this long.”

Hunt said Gillis’ “sentiment” was “widely shared among folks” she’d spoken with.

“Not only are people unsurprised, but many of them have been able to send impacted women our way,” she wrote.

“I got involved because the first victim who approached me is a close friend, but when I saw that there were others who’s experiences fit the same pattern of manipulation and abuse of power, I knew I couldn’t stay silent,” Hunt wrote in her lengthy X thread.

Some of the allegations allegedly concern direct messages and Snapchat messages that range “from uncomfortable comments to potentially criminal conduct.”

Hunt claimed that Swalwell routinely targeted “employees, interns, and fans” and acted “as a mentor just to exploit that power.”

She added that the women have “secured pro bono legal representation” and are “in the process of sharing information with reporters and ensuring that they are physically and legally safe.”

“That process takes time,” she emphasized.

Hunt added that she knows Swalwell’s team “is aware of my video and the other creators talking about” the allegations, but she has not yet “been served with legal paperwork” or received a “cease and desist.”

Swalwell has been a member of the House since 2013 and was accused of having an affair with a suspected Chinese spy on his 2014 campaign staff.  U.S. Intel officials said at the time that his alleged relations with the spy were part of an extensive political intelligence operation run by China between 2011 and 2015. The Democrat reportedly severed ties with Fang Fang in 2015 after being briefed by U.S. intelligence officials. The alleged affair was made public in 2020.

Then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) booted Swalwell off the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) in January 2023, largely over the alleged affair.

“Eric Swalwell cannot get a security clearance in the public sector. Why would we ever give him a security clearance in the secrets to America? So, I will not allow him to be on Intel,” McCarthy said at the time.

The FBI, under Director Kash Patel, is reportedly preparing to release investigative files related to Swalwell’s past interactions with the spy Christine Fang (also known as Fang Fang).

New York City Council Member Vickie Paladino maintained on X that the media is complicit for keeping the profusion of allegations quiet.

“The thing about all these Eric Swalwell revelations is that ALL of them were known for years,” Paladino wrote. “But the media worked with the Democrat establishment to keep them quiet as long as Swalwell was useful.”

Now, because the California governor race has become a fiasco that might actually lead to a Republican winning unless a couple of Dems drop out to consolidate the vote, he needs to go. And like clockwork, here comes the orchestrated campaign of sexual harassment claims to end his career.

To be sure, Swalwell is garbage and deserves everything bad that’s coming to him. But it’s just amazing how the Democrats can just push a button and the machinery of the media and legal system just springs into action to eject someone from the party.

This is a guy who was caught sleeping with a Chinese spy for years, with actual evidence that he compromised national security in the process, and he remained completely protected and elevated as a major national figure. But as soon as the math stops working on the CA governor race, it all collapses underneath him.

Wild stuff.

X influencer “Bad Hombre” posted a graphic accusing Swalwell of being “a serial projector,” that is, someone who attributes his own unacceptable thoughts, feelings, flaws, impulses and behavior to other people.

Swalwell, incredibly, is the leading Democrat contender in the crowded race for California’s governor, with 13.7 percent of the vote in the RealClearPolitics poll average. Republican Steve Hilton currently leads the pack with 14.7 percent.

Third place contender, Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), is now calling for Swalwell to drop out of California Governor’s race.

“He’s NOT going to survive this. This is not going to be good,” Bianco told conservative podcaster Benny Johnson. “He should probably just drop out and save his family.”

Swalwell’s press X account posted on Monday, “Has anyone checked in on Chad Bianco today?”

The sheriff replied: “Just praying for any and every female who’s ever had to be in the presence of Eric Swalwell.”

Update:

Swalwell’s campaign responded to Hunt’s allegations Tuesday evening, fiercely denying any sexual misconduct towards former staffers or interns.

“This false, outrageous rumor is being spread 27 days before an election begins by flailing opponents who have sadly teamed up with MAGA conspiracy theorists because they know Eric Swalwell is the frontrunner in this race,” Micah Beasley, a spokesperson for Swalwell, told the New York Post.

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

A “shocking” number of former female employees and interns are preparing to come forward to accuse Rep. Eric Swalwell (|D-Calif.) of sexual misconduct, according to a Democrat activist.

Cheyenne Hunt, a lawyer, former congressional candidate and executive director of the left-wing nonprofit Gen-Z for Change, revealed on X Sunday, that she has been working with a number of women who are in the process of sharing their accusations with major news outlets. Hunt said she knew of a separate and “much larger group” of women who are also currently in the process of sharing their stories.

Swalwell’s alleged inappropriate sexual behavior is said to be an “open secret” in Washington DC, as is his alleged practice of forcing underlings to sign nondisclosure agreements.

Hunt posted an initial video on Instagram in late March accusing Swalwell of having “a known history of being predatory towards women.”  She cited a woman who told her: “You know Eric Swalwell has slept with many of his interns and makes them all sign NDAs so they don’t speak up, right? And when I was 19 he tried hitting on me and sliding into my DMs and I have so many other friends that have similar experiences with him.”

Hunt said the allegation was “not an anomaly” but “part of a pattern.”

After that video was posted, she said a “pretty shocking” number of “credible” women came forward with more stories and she connected them “with the investigative reporting teams who have been working on breaking this for years.”

“Anyone who has been in DC for five minutes knows this,” said Democrat campaign advisor Bri Gillis on X. “It’s actually wild it took this long.”

Hunt said Gillis’ “sentiment” was “widely shared among folks” she’d spoken with.

“Not only are people unsurprised, but many of them have been able to send impacted women our way,” she wrote.

“I got involved because the first victim who approached me is a close friend, but when I saw that there were others who’s experiences fit the same pattern of manipulation and abuse of power, I knew I couldn’t stay silent,” Hunt wrote in her lengthy X thread.

Some of the allegations allegedly concern direct messages and Snapchat messages that range “from uncomfortable comments to potentially criminal conduct.”

Hunt claimed that Swalwell routinely targeted “employees, interns, and fans” and acted “as a mentor just to exploit that power.”

She added that the women have “secured pro bono legal representation” and are “in the process of sharing information with reporters and ensuring that they are physically and legally safe.”

“That process takes time,” she emphasized.

Hunt added that she knows Swalwell’s team “is aware of my video and the other creators talking about” the allegations, but she has not yet “been served with legal paperwork” or received a “cease and desist.”

Swalwell has been a member of the House since 2013 and was accused of having an affair with a suspected Chinese spy on his 2014 campaign staff.  U.S. Intel officials said at the time that his alleged relations with the spy were part of an extensive political intelligence operation run by China between 2011 and 2015. The Democrat reportedly severed ties with Fang Fang in 2015 after being briefed by U.S. intelligence officials. The alleged affair was made public in 2020.

Then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) booted Swalwell off the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) in January 2023, largely over the alleged affair.

“Eric Swalwell cannot get a security clearance in the public sector. Why would we ever give him a security clearance in the secrets to America? So, I will not allow him to be on Intel,” McCarthy said at the time.

The FBI, under Director Kash Patel, is reportedly preparing to release investigative files related to Swalwell’s past interactions with the spy Christine Fang (also known as Fang Fang).

New York City Council Member Vickie Paladino maintained on X that the media is complicit for keeping the profusion of allegations quiet.

“The thing about all these Eric Swalwell revelations is that ALL of them were known for years,” Paladino wrote. “But the media worked with the Democrat establishment to keep them quiet as long as Swalwell was useful.”

Now, because the California governor race has become a fiasco that might actually lead to a Republican winning unless a couple of Dems drop out to consolidate the vote, he needs to go. And like clockwork, here comes the orchestrated campaign of sexual harassment claims to end his career.

To be sure, Swalwell is garbage and deserves everything bad that’s coming to him. But it’s just amazing how the Democrats can just push a button and the machinery of the media and legal system just springs into action to eject someone from the party.

This is a guy who was caught sleeping with a Chinese spy for years, with actual evidence that he compromised national security in the process, and he remained completely protected and elevated as a major national figure. But as soon as the math stops working on the CA governor race, it all collapses underneath him.

Wild stuff.

X influencer “Bad Hombre” posted a graphic accusing Swalwell of being “a serial projector,” that is, someone who attributes his own unacceptable thoughts, feelings, flaws, impulses and behavior to other people.

Swalwell, incredibly, is the leading Democrat contender in the crowded race for California’s governor, with 13.7 percent of the vote in the RealClearPolitics poll average. Republican Steve Hilton currently leads the pack with 14.7 percent.

Third place contender, Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), is now calling for Swalwell to drop out of California Governor’s race.

“He’s NOT going to survive this. This is not going to be good,” Bianco told conservative podcaster Benny Johnson. “He should probably just drop out and save his family.”

Swalwell’s press X account posted on Monday, “Has anyone checked in on Chad Bianco today?”

The sheriff replied: “Just praying for any and every female who’s ever had to be in the presence of Eric Swalwell.”

Update:

Swalwell’s campaign responded to Hunt’s allegations Tuesday evening, fiercely denying any sexual misconduct towards former staffers or interns.

“This false, outrageous rumor is being spread 27 days before an election begins by flailing opponents who have sadly teamed up with MAGA conspiracy theorists because they know Eric Swalwell is the frontrunner in this race,” Micah Beasley, a spokesperson for Swalwell, told the New York Post.

Israel has made clear that it doesn’t see the newly declared US-Iran ceasefire as applying to its war in Lebanon, where it is still trying to destroy Hezbollah. The White House too has made its stance clear that it doesn’t apply, but President Trump has stated his intent to take care of a Lebanon ceasefire separately. 

The military has unleashed hell on Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the eastern Bekaa valley overnight and through Wednesday – with Beirut suffering some of the worst aerial bombardments of the war.

via Associated Press

Pakistan, however, has said that the ceasefire does extend to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. But the Israeli military (IDF) is as usual letting the bombs do the talking, and is largely ignoring the diplomatic side of things.

Israel on Wednesday reportedly struck over 100 Hezbollah (and civilian) targets within a mere 10 minutes across Beirut, the south of the country, and Bekaa.

Viral images and videos have shown massive smoke plumes lingering above the densely populated Lebanese capital. The surprise attack on busy commercial locations unleashed panic in the streets – and a full casualty accounting has not been immediately forthcoming .

Below is an outline of some of the earlier reported attacks, via Al Jazeera:

An air raid on a funeral in the the east Lebanon village of Shmestar killed at least 10 people.
Six people were killed in one attack in Saida.
Three people were killed in a strike in western Beirut.
Three girls were killed in the coastal town of Adloun.
At least two were killed in Douris in the Bekaa Valley.
Casualties were reported in Kayfoun in Mount Lebanon.

⚡️Beirut now

Holy shit… pic.twitter.com/7hHquWxM2Y

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 8, 2026

Here’s how the same regional outlet described it, noting that Lebanese TV has said the attacks have claimed “many lives”:  “Israel has launched a surprise attack with dozens of air strikes across Lebanon, one of the largest military assaults in the history of the conflict.” The report stated, “Air raids targeted residential buildings, mosques, vehicles and cemeteries across the country.”

Lebanon’s Minister of Social Affairs, Haneed Sayed, told the Associated Press that the wide-ranging strikes mark a “very dangerous turning point.”

She described: “These hits are now at the heart of Beirut… Half of the sheltered (internally displaced persons) are in Beirut in this area,” she said, adding that she had just driven by the areas hit.”

⚡️ Footage from the airstrikes on Beirut pic.twitter.com/HTDOdwFY33

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 8, 2026

Hezbollah did not immediately join the Iran war until weeks in following the late February start of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury. However, by the middle it began sending a significant amount of rockets on northern Israel.

Importantly, President Trump has on Wednesday told PBS that his view is Lebanon is not part of the Iran ceasefire deal “because of Hezbollah” – but “that will get taken care of too”. He called what’s happening in Lebanon “a separate skirmish”.