The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose from 203k to 219k last week (higher than the expected 210k), but still hovering within the low-low range of the last four years…

Source: Bloomberg

New Jersey and Oregon saw the largest WoW rise in initial claims while Texas and New York saw the biggest decline…

But, while initial claims rose, continuing jobless claims tumbled to the lowest level since May 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

Soft survey data continues to signal a stressed labor market, while hard claims data says – all clear…

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is the ‘no hire, no fire’ economy remains firmly in place with policy-makers holding their breath for March’s inflation data to make a decision.

Expectations for The Fed’s moves in 2026 currently price in 25% odds of a single 25bps rate-cut this year.

Summary: 

WH confirms Vice President Vance will lead Kushner-Witkoff delegation in Pakistan, seen as positive in Tehran and Islamabad.

Trump warns of more military action if Iran doesn’t uphold ‘real’ ceasefire deal, after disagreement over Lebanon truce status as part of deal.

Despite some last-minute shots in Lebanon by Israel, bombs go largely silent across Gulf and Middle East.

Over 250 killed and 1,000+ wounded in Lebanon from Wednesday surprise attack by Israel’s military. UAE, Pakistan, and even EU (Kallas) condemn.

Hormuz Strait still effectively controlled by Iran: only a few vessels had passed on Wednesday.

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Yes 9% · No 92%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Optimism: Bombs Largely Go Quiet

Asia One journalist Anas Mallick writes that “To my understanding, By tomorrow, first break of light, is when both delegations of US and Iran will be in Islamabad to hold talks.”

There’s some optimism regarding the US-Iran ceasefire holding, as it’s been relatively quiet in the Middle East overnight into Thursday, despite Israel getting some final shots on Lebanon in. On this, Iran’s president has made clear Tehran’s position that Israel’s renewed incursion into Lebanon and against Hezbollah violates the ceasefire, warning that these actions could make talks moot before they even begin.

Reuters observes, “Even as the U.S. and Iran seek to cement a ceasefire, Israel is seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. Israel’s creation of ‘buffer zones’ in Gaza, Syria and now Lebanon reflects a strategic shift after the attacks of October 7, 2023, one that puts the country in a semi-permanent state of war.”

Still, Gulf countries like the UAE have stated that no air threats have been detected or are inbound in the past hours, which is a rare positive development. There has been a decline in Iranian attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf region. Also, Israeli society has begun to return to normalcy, with emergency and shelter in place measures lifted across most parts of the country, and Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv having resumed operations as of midnight.

The reality of who actually controls the Hormuz Strait, told in one awkward WH press exchange:

Q: As of today, who controls the Strait of Hormuz?

LEAVITT: We expect that the strait will be opened immediately

Q: Who controls the strait right now?

LEAVITT: *refuses to answer* pic.twitter.com/eqDzxLTRAP

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 8, 2026

Over 250 Killed In Lebanon on Single Day

But the reality remains that on Wednesday – the first day of the fragile ceasefire – a mere few tankers were allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz before Iran shut down traffic again, citing the heavy Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which were the largest and deadliest of the war to date.

Sky News reports that at least 254 people were killed by the Israeli strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday, citing government health authorities. In Beirut alone, at least 91 people were killed, amid ongoing rescue efforts and treatment of the wounded in area hospitals. Over 1,000 Lebanese were wounded and injured. The Lebanese government has declared a day of mourning.

Trump To Renew Attacks if Tehran Fails in ‘Real’ Ceasefire Deal, Oil Rises

Meanwhile President Trump in a Truth Social message issued overnight says that “all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel” will remain in place around Iran until the “real agreement” on a ceasefire “is fully complied with” – warning of more US military action to come if not.

The renewed threats have pushed WTI back above $100…

Here’s president Trump’s full Truth Social statement wherein he warns that the shooting can start again “bigger, better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before”:

Iran’s leadership has meanwhile been insistent on Lebanon being part of the Iran ceasefire, and has on this basis accused Washington of already violating at least three clauses of the ten point plan. It too has serious cards to play – especially while still de facto controlling Hormuz, and with the ability to renew attacks on energy sites in Gulf states.

pic.twitter.com/itR0mAo03m

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 9, 2026

Iran on Lebanon Violations: ‘Choose War or Ceasefire, You Can’t Have Both’

Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh has told CBS News Israel’s attacks on Lebanon Wednesday were “a grave violation” of the ceasefire agreement, and emphasized the US must choose “between war and ceasefire – you cannot have it both at the same time.”

“You cannot ask for a ceasefire and then accept terms and conditions, accept areas the ceasefire is applied to, and name Lebanon, exactly Lebanon in that, and then your ally just start a massacre,” Khatibzadeh said. 

Netanyahu’s message has remained that Israel can strike Hezbollah whenever and “wherever” it chooses. “In Beirut, we eliminated Ali Youssef Kharshi, the personal secretary of Hezbollah terror organization Secretary-General Naim Qassem and one of the people closest to him. At the same time, overnight, the IDF struck a series of terror infrastructures in southern Lebanon: crossings used to transfer thousands of weapons, rockets, and launchers, as well as weapons depots, launchers, and Hezbollah headquarters,” Netanyahu said.

⚡️ The Israeli airstrike on Al-Basta, Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Zh1YNF529S

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 8, 2026

“Our message is clear: Whoever acts against Israeli civilians will be struck. We will continue to strike Hezbollah wherever required, until we restore full security to the residents of the north.”

Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Saar: “In the last 40 days, Hezbollah has fired approximately 6,500 missiles, rockets, and drones at Israel.”

Pakistan Welcomes Vance Heading up US Delegation

WH Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt made clear Wednesday that Vice President JD Vance will head up talks for the US side in Pakistan, leading Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Tehran had previously expressed its disdain for the latter two, accusing them of lying and being deceptive the first go-round before Iran suffered surprise US-Israeli attack. The pair are also accused of lacking technical know-how when it comes to talking about the nuclear issue.

Al Jazeera also freshly reports that the choice of Vance heading the US delegation is “being viewed very positively in Pakistan.” Pakistan’s former Ambassador to the UN Maleeha Lodhi says, “Politicians know the art of the possible, and therefore I think it’s a good decision by the Trump administration to have Vance lead the talks.”

Vance has stressed that Trump is “impatient to make progress” with Iran and warned that if Iranian officials don’t engage in good faith “they’re going to find out that President Trump is not one to mess around with.” The US has clamed Iran ‘begged’ for ceasefire while Tehran insists it was the other way around.

More Geopolitical Headlines

via Newsquawk…

US President Donald Trump posted: “All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel….will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with”.
US President Donald Trump posted: “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”.
The Trump administration is considering a plan to penalize NATO members viewed as unhelpful during the Iran war by relocating US troops to more supportive countries, with potential base closures in Europe, including in Spain or Germany, according to WSJ.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told President Trump that most European nations provided support.
US officials stated they do not rule out resuming fighting in Iran and confirmed Trump will not offer major concessions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning Iran’s demands could trigger renewed conflict.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister stated that the speaker of parliament will lead Iran’s delegation in upcoming talks, with communication continuing through Pakistan, according to Al Jazeera.
Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan stated the delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night for “serious talks” based on Iran’s 10-point proposal.
The IRGC Navy announced alternative shipping routes to bypass potential sea mines, according to ISNA.
The IRGC stated that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it described as an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon, according to CNN.
Iranian lawmaker Ibrahim Azizi stated: “Once again, you have proven that you do not know the meaning of a ceasefire” and “Only fire will discipline you…so wait for it”.
Saudi Arabia and Iran discussed de-escalation during a call, according to SPA.
A Pakistani Foreign Ministry source indicated the US has backed away from including Lebanon in the ceasefire with Iran, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Israel will continue striking Hezbollah, with the IDF targeting infrastructure in southern Lebanon overnight.
Israel’s Ministry of Energy ordered the resumption of operations at the Karish gas platform after a shutdown during the war, according to Channel 12.
Hezbollah stated its attacks on Israel will continue until aggression stops and launched rockets citing ceasefire violations, according to Fars News Agency.
A missile was fired from Lebanon into northern Israel, according to Fars News Agency.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon continued despite the ceasefire with Iran, according to Anadolu Agency.
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump, stating their decision to accept the ceasefire was the best course of action.
Russia launched 119 drones at Ukraine overnight, according to Ukrainian media.

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The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) – rose 0.4% MoM in February (pre-war), in line with expectations, with YoY rising 3.0% (as expected – lowest since Dec), down from January’s +3.1%…

Source: Bloomberg

The YoY Core decline is coming off January’s highest level since March 2024, with Services cost inflation slowing notably…

The headline PCE also rose 0.4% MoM (as expected – the biggest MoM rise since Feb 2025), up 2.8% YoY (also as expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, we saw a notable jump in non-durable goods prices…

Source: Bloomberg

The much-watched SuperCore PCE (Services Ex-Shelter rose 0.2% MoM with the YoY rise tumbling to +3.2% – in line with its lowest level since March 2021…

Under the hood, Recreation Services and Healthcare saw the largest deceleration MoM…

For those worried about the impact of crude oil’s recent surge (since the start of the Iran war), it appears – somehow – that PCE’s Energy component has already front-run some of the move but there’s a lot more pain to come for March…

Source: Bloomberg

Higher prices were met with lower incomes (-0.1% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp) and higher spending (+90.5% MoM vs +0.6% MoM exp)…

Source: Bloomberg

Income growth is slowing significantly while spending is accelerating…

Source: Bloomberg

Adjusted for inflation, real spending rose 2.5% YoY – the highest since Oct 2025…

Source: Bloomberg

After jumping from 3.9% to 4.5% in January, Americans’ savings rate dropped back to 4.0% in Feb (after another huge revision in late 2025), basically at the weakest level since Nov 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

So spending solid as incomes fell and prices are rising… but this is all pre-war, so a large pinch of salt is required.

Stocks resumed their drop and oil erased about a third of its Wednesday drop as traders watched the fragile US-Iran ceasefire shatter by the hour, with both sides accusing the other of breaches while the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed and Israel intensified strikes on Lebanon. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures fell 0.4% after Bloomberg strategists said a best-case scenario has already been priced in;  Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% with Mag7 stocks mostly lower. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell 0.7%. Emerging-market stocks slid almost 1%. The dollar ticked higher even as 10Y US YST yields dropped about 1bp; equivalent UK yields rose six basis points after tumbling almost 20 basis points on Wednesday. Brent crude jumped back to $98 a barrel on signs the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. US economic data calendar includes February personal income/spending (with PCE price index), weekly jobless claims and third estimate of 4Q GDP (8:30am) and February wholesale trade sales and inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate is blank until April 14.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon +0.8%, Apple -0.4%, Nvidia -0.7%, Meta Platforms +1%, Microsoft -0.1%, -0.3%)

Applied Digital (APLD) falls 1% after the data center operator’s third-quarter gross margins missed the average analyst estimate.
CoreWeave (CRWV) rises 6% after the cloud-computing provider reported an expanded long-term agreement with Meta to provide AI cloud capacity through December 2032 for ~$21 billion.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 2% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight, citing demand for optical products.
Instacart (CART) climbs 2% as Raymond James upgrades to outperform, calling the grocery segment an under-penetrated e-commerce market.
Simply Good Foods (SMPL) falls 16% after the packaged-food firm forecast year net sales will be down as much as 10%.
STAAR Surgical (STAA) rises 23% after the health-care supplies firm said it expects net sales for the first quarter to exceed $90 million, up from $42.6 million in the year ago period. The estimate surpassed Wall Street’s expectations.
Texas Instruments (TXN) gains 1.6% after Stifel upgraded the stock to buy, citing “multiple tailwinds” that should support the semiconductor firm’s outlook.
Whitestone REIT (WSR) shares rise 11% after the retail-focused real estate investment trust company entered into a definitive merger agreement with Ares Real Estate funds to be acquired for $19 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at about $1.7 billion.

In AI, Anthropic employees sold some equity to investors, wrapping up a secondary share sale that started earlier this year. Meta shares are up in premarket trading, with analysts generally positive on the AI model it showed on Wednesday. PIMCO is said to be looking to sell a portion of the $14 billion of debt financing it’s providing for a massive Oracle data center in Michigan. In other corporate news, the WSJ reported that Disney is preparing to make sizable layoffs in one of the first significant moves under its new CEO. Seven & i Holdings will delay a public listing of its US convenience-store business planned for later this year. 

Markets have given up some of the big moves seen Wednesday when optimism around the deal for a two-week pause in fighting spurred a relief rally. Continued fighting in the Middle East, punctuated by Israeli strikes in Lebanon, threatened to derail the fragile ceasefire deal. Iran and the US-Israeli side appeared to disagree over whether the ceasefire covers Lebanon. Yet despite the escalating rhetoric, the ceasefire was largely holding on Thursday, with a decline in attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf.

“There’s a fair amount of skepticism in the market about the ceasefire and the upcoming negotiations,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital. “The big question is what state the global economy will be in after the crisis.”

Overnight, Trump pledged to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran; the first round of direct negotiations is scheduled for Saturday morning in Islamabad. Meanwhile, Goldman predicted that Brent is set to average more than $100 a barrel right through 2026 if the strait remains closed for another month. 

Much of Wednesday’s move was driven by short-covering and a return to normal positioning: According to Goldman’s trading desk, hedge funds rushed to close out bets against US stocks at a pace not seen since March 2020. The ceasefire, along with upcoming earnings driving up the potential for idiosyncratic moves across equities, may mean “downward pressure on implied correlations,” according to Citi option strategists.

Even if weekend talks lead to a more permanent peace, the effects of the war will rumble on. Earnings expectations will need to be tempered because of the inflationary fallout from the war, according to BlackRock’s Helen Jewell. And in central banks, a former executive director at the Bank of Japan said the BOJ is likely to increase its benchmark rate this month to avoid falling behind on controlling inflation. Fed policymakers will get the latest reading of their preferred inflation indicator, core PCE, later, ahead of CPI data on Friday. The latter, covering March, is likely to be more interesting as it will begin to reflect the Middle East conflict.

In politics, the Justice Department’s top antitrust litigator and three senior trial attorneys are leaving the agency, according to people familiar. The US is said to consider lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s battered economy.

Turning to the start of earnings season next week, expectations will need to be tempered due to the inflationary fallout from the war, BlackRock Inc.’s Helen Jewell said.  “If you look at earnings forecasts at the moment for the year, they’re still well into double digits — 15, 16, 17, 18%,” said Jewell, who is international chief investment officer for fundamental equities at the world’s largest asset manager. “There’s a lot of headroom for the earnings to come down a little bit.” 

On Thursday, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation will offer a snapshot of pre-war price pressures. Economists see the so-called core personal consumption expenditures — PCE — price index, which excludes food and energy, having risen by 0.4% for a third month in February, suggesting progress toward tamer inflation was stalling even before the conflict.

Europe’s stocks followed their Asian counterparts lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.7% after its best day since March 2022 on Wednesday. US equity futures also drop. Oil stocks advanced along with Brent crude. Many of yesterday’s laggards in the oil sector are today’s biggest gainers, including Var Energi, Equinor, BP and TotalEnergies. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

ITM Power shares climb as much as 17%, the most in 10 months, after the UK government pledged to invest around £87 million in the clean energy company to drive a build out of its hydrogen technology manufacturing facility
Rexel shares climb as much as 4.1% after analysts at Jefferies raise the French electrical supplies firm to buy from hold, saying it is well positioned to outpace its guidance thanks to higher prices and growth drivers
Technip Energies shares rise as much as 4.1% to the highest level since September after the engineering firm was awarded a contract to improve the Long Son Petrochemicals complex in Vietnam
Vallourec rises as much as 5.2% after announcing a five-year supply agreement with Fervo Energy worth up to $800 million, which CIC Markets says “demonstrates the effectiveness” of the firm’s New Energies segment strategy
AG Barr rises as much as 4.7% after Bank of America initiates coverage of the UK soft drinks manufacturer with a buy rating and a street-high 850p price target. BofA cites growth potential for IRN-BRU
DCC shares rise as much as 4.1% after analysts at BNP Paribas raise their rating to outperform from neutral on the energy seller’s current valuation and the positive impact of energy prices
Melia Hotels shares rise as much as 3.9%, to the highest level since Sept. 2018, as Kepler Cheuvreux raises its recommendation on the Spanish hotel operator to hold from reduce
Abivax shares rise as much as 3.8% after Oddo BHF lifted its price target on the French biotech company, saying Crohn’s disease could represent a bigger commercial opportunity than ulcerative colitis
Alstom falls 7.2%, the most in ten months, after the French trainmaker flags currency headwinds in an earnings preview. JPMorgan (overweight) lowers estimates on FX headwinds
Man Group shares trade as much as 7.7% below their last closing price, only partly due to trading without rights to the next dividend. Deutsche Bank analysts cut their earnings estimates and price target ahead of 1Q results
Netcompany shares fall as much as 6.5%, the most in two months, after ABG Sundal Collier cut its recommendation on the Danish IT consultancy to hold from buy, seeing a “less compelling” risk/reward after a strong run for the shares
Grieg Seafood falls as much as 7.9%, the most since last May, after the Norwegian seafood and salmon company’s preliminary first-quarter earnings disappointed, leading DNB Carnegie to cut 2026 EPS estimates by 12%

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks retreated as oil prices rose again and sporadic fighting in the Middle East cast doubts over the implementation of the two-week US-Iran ceasefire deal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1%, with South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix the biggest drags. Most national benchmarks in the region traded lower, with the Kospi being the biggest loser followed by India’s Nifty 50. Asia’s stock benchmark jumped 5% in the previous session, the most in about a year, as global risk assets rallied on optimism over the ceasefire deal. It is up more than 8% so far in 2026.

“Headline risk remains elevated,” according to Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com. “Markets aren’t necessarily out of the woods yet. There are several variables that could upend market sentiment.”

In rates, treasury yields are slightly lower, down 1bp to 4.29% and slightly richer across the curve after plying small ranges during Asia session and London morning; equivalent UK yields rose six basis points after tumbling almost 20 basis points on Wednesday. US yields are as much as 1.5bp lower led by intermediate sectors, steepening 5s30s curve by around 1bp. 10-year is down about 1bp near 4.28% with European counterparts 3bp-6bp higher on the day. European yields are broadly higher with oil prices as Strait of Hormuz traffic remains blocked: UK and German 10-year yields rise 7 bps and 4 bps respectively. US session includes PCE price gauges for February, several other US economic indicators and 30-year bond auction. Treasury’s $22 billion 30-year bond reopening has WI yield near 4.88%, about 1bp higher than result of last month’s auction, which stopped through by 0.7bp; Wednesday’s 10-year reopening tailed by 0.2bp after rallying into the bid deadline.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inches higher. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. Gold edges up while Bitcoin is flat.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up more than 5% near session highs, erasing about a third of Wednesday’s 16.4% drop; Brent crude futures rise 4% to above $98 after a more than 13% plunge to under $95 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked. Two fully laden Chinese oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were approaching the Strait, potentially putting them on track to become the first such vessels to cross since the ceasefire was announced.  European natural gas futures climb 2%.

US economic data calendar includes February personal income/spending (with PCE price index), weekly jobless claims and third estimate of 4Q GDP (8:30am) and February wholesale trade sales and inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate is blank until April 14.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -0.3%, Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%, Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.6%, DAX -1.2%, CAC 40 -0.7%
10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.29%
VIX +0.4 points at 21.39
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1202.1, euro +0.1% at $1.1678
WTI crude +3.1% at $97.38/barrel

Top Overnight News

JD Vance will head the U.S. negotiating team for the peace talks with Iran on Saturday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday. Axios
Even as the U.S. and Iran seek to cement a ceasefire, Israel is seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. Israel’s creation of “buffer zones” in Gaza, Syria and now Lebanon reflects a strategic shift after the attacks of October 7, 2023, one that puts the country in a semi-permanent state of war. RTRS
Vance said Wednesday Israel has proposed to restrain itself when it comes to strikes in Lebanon as long as the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are taking place. Axios
The White House is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that President Trump thinks were unhelpful to the U.S. and Israel during the Iran war, according to administration officials. The proposal would involve moving U.S. troops out of North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and stationing them in countries that were more supportive. WSJ
EU will still be hit by a “stagflationary shock” of low growth and rising inflation despite the US and Iran agreeing a two-week ceasefire, the bloc’s top economic official has warned. FT
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan’s finance conditions remain accommodative, with the level of real rates clearly below zero. BBG
The US is said to be considering lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s economy. BBG
Wealthy investors attempted to pull more than $20bn from private credit funds in the first quarter, underscoring the growing strain on the asset class. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. The funds tracked by the FT, which collectively manage investment portfolios worth about $300bn, have honored just over half of the redemption requests they received. Many investors have been forced to wait until a redemption window opens up later this quarter to exit. FT
The Trump administration will likely extend its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil this week, former Treasury and State Department officials said — teeing up a similar move on Iranian oil. Semafor
World Bank forecasts global growth for 2027 at 2.4%, while it said investment remains subdued as firms await clearer signals on the external environment and domestic policy, which it called a binding constraint on growth.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were lower in a mild pullback from yesterday’s ceasefire-fuelled extremes and as the widespread euphoria gradually waned amid the wide gaps between each side’s peace proposals. Furthermore, several strikes had continued in the 24 hours after the  announcement, and the inclusion of Lebanon is seen as a key point of contention, while shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, although a senior Iranian official stated that Iran could open Hormuz on Thursday or Friday ahead of their planned talks. ASX 200 traded little changed amid a lack of data or drivers and with resilience in energy, defensives and financials offsetting the firm losses in the tech sector. Nikkei 225 pulled back after the prior day’s stellar performance, with the index returning to beneath the 56,000 level amid very few fresh catalysts and the absence of tier-1 data to sustain the previous momentum. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the uninspired mood amid concerns regarding the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire, and with weakness in Chinese tech and property stocks, while there were prior reports that the US FCC will vote on a measure that would ban Chinese labs from testing US electronics.

Top Asian News

South Korea’s Finance Minister comments that financial and FX market volatility has eased a bit.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) have pulled back from Wednesday’s ceasefire-related surge after cracks appeared in the agreement. US President Trump announced that the military will remain in and around Iran until a real agreement is fully complied with. Furthermore, the IRGC announced a new Hormuz corridor, effectively raising risks of disruption and bottlenecks. The IBEX 35 outperforms, with the index trading near flat. On the other hand, the DAX 40 is the underperformer. European sectors echo the above bias, with the majority in the red. Energy and Chemicals are amongst the sectors in the green, highlighting its defensive characteristics, while Consumer Products and Services and Technology sit at the bottom of the pile.

Top European News

Italian PM Meloni said ruling out government reshuffle, not planning to resign; if the middle east crisis were to flare up again, Europe should consider temporary suspension of the stability and growth pact.
EU’s Dombrovskis said the bloc will still be hit by a “stagflationary shock” of low growth and rising inflation despite the US-Iran ceasefire, while European Commission is preparing to cut growth forecasts, according to FT.

FX

FX Markets are paring some of Wednesday’s optimism with crude gaining and general risk-off elsewhere as markets weigh Iran’s claims of ceasefire breaches and subsequent concerns over Hormuz following reports from state media.
DXY cautiously chugged higher throughout the European morning, supported by the key 99.00 mark. Overnight, FOMC Minutes were viewed as hawkish, with it stating many members said persistently higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated long enough to justify rate rises. Taking a look at rate expectations, markets moved to price just 7bps of easing by year-end compared to 15bps pre-minutes.
Kiwi continues to perform well, amid hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Breman, she said inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term, and they will ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up. This marks the second day of gains against the greenback, with NZD the sole currency that outperforms a mildly stronger USD. In terms of market pricing, 75bps of easing is expected by year-end, an increase of 15bps since last week.
JPY is the worst performer in the G10, as energy prices weigh on the net importer nation. The pair marked a session low of 158.45 and sits on a 159 handle at the time of writing. Elsewhere, EUR/GBP trades a touch above the 0.87 mark. In a note this morning, ING suggests rate differentials will help the cross with EUR; rate expectations are likely to prove sticky and BoE dovish pricing potentially coming “through more smoothly” should energy prices continue to decline.

Central Banks

RBNZ Governor Bremen said more risk on inflation to the upside and inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term. said:. Previous rate cuts are still providing some stimulus to the economy, and a swift resolution to the conflict is expected to yield stronger growth this year. RBNZ to ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up.
BoJ Governor Ueda said short and medium-term interest rates are clearly negative, adds accommodative financial conditions are maintained, leading to moderate increase in capex.

Fixed Income

Global fixed benchmarks are trading flat to lower, as benchmarks pull back from the extremes seen on Wednesday, and as traders begin to find holes within the current ceasefire agreement. This comes after Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said three clauses of the 10-point plan have been violated so far, and as such, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable. Another interesting point is that Iran introduced controlled shipping routes and coordination with the IRGC, effectively shifting from free transit to monitored flows—raising risks of disruptions and bottlenecks. (Full details on the Newsquawk headline feed). This, alongside continued strikes on both Lebanon and Iran, has led to a rebound in the energy complex, once again renewing inflationary concerns.
USTs are currently flat, and mildly outperforming vs peers – currently trading within a 111-04+ to 111-10 range, and have entirely reversed the initial ceasefire-related optimism. Much of the action facilitated by the geopolitical factors mentioned above, but the complex is also weighed on by hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes and heading into a 30yr auction later today. On the data front, markets will await weekly claims, February’s PCE data (exp. +0.4% M/M vs prev. +0.3%) and core PCE (exp. +0.4% M/M vs prev. +0.4%); final Q4 GDP stats. From a yield perspective, the 2yr has rebounded back towards 3.785% (vs Wednesday’s trough at 3.713%).
Bunds are in the red and down by around 50 ticks at this stage, and holding towards the bottom end of a 125.67 to 126.10 range. German paper did dip a tick below the high from 7th April, with market participants highlighting 125.53 as a potential area for intraday longs to be exited. Bunds are moving at the whim of energy prices this morning, but there have been some domestic updates. An interesting comment via Italy’s PM Meloni got some attention, after she suggested that the EU should consider a temporary suspension of budget deficit rules if the Iran war persists. No move in EGBs at the time, but traders will remain cognizant of any fiscal related concerns, should a suspension be enacted. From a data perspective, Industrial Production printed at -0.3% (exp. +0.9%), highlighting the turbulent recovery of Germany – even before the Iran war started.
Gilts are underperforming vs peers, after leading the fixed complex on Wednesday. As above, moving at the whim of energy prices, with UK-specific newsflow light. UK 2yr has rebounded back towards 4.237% (vs trough of 4.044% on Wednesday). UK paper currently trades within an 89.10 to 89.61 range; further pressure could see a breach below the 89.00 mark, and then the high from 7th April at 88.88.
UK sold GBP 4bln 4.125% 2033 Gilt: b/c 3.30x (prev. 3.37x), average yield 4.507% (prev. 4.075%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
Spain sold EUR 5.778bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.35% 2029, 2.60% 2031 and 3.30% 2036 Bono & EUR 0.676bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L Bono.
Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.58x (prev. 3.69x), average yield 1.826% (prev. 1.633%).
Unicredit (UCG IM) to sell 6-year EUR-denominated noted, guidance seen +125bps to MS.
Lloyds (LLOY LN) to sell 10-year GBP-denominated noted, guidance seen at +170bps to UK Treasuries.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said it is important to base JGB issuance plans on market demand, when asked about extending duration of government debt.

Commodities

Optimism over the US–Iran ceasefire faded as both sides signalled breaches and diverging terms, with Trump warning of military escalation if compliance fails and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf saying multiple clauses of Tehran’s plan have already been violated. Lebanon has emerged as the key fault line—while the US and Israel insist it sits outside the agreement, Iran and its allies treat it as integral, raising the risk of collapse as Israeli strikes and Hezbollah activity continue. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz adds further fragility, as Iran introduced controlled shipping routes and coordination with the IRGC, effectively shifting from free transit to monitored flows—raising risks of disruptions and bottlenecks (Full Analysis available on the Newsquawk headline feed).
Crude rebounded after Wednesday’s biggest one-day drop since April 2020, with Brent Jun’26 back above USD 97/bbl (after Wednesday’s 13% slump), as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked and Israeli attacks on Lebanon raised concerns over the durability of the Middle East truce. WTI May’26 trades towards the top of a USD 96.25-98.38/bbl range and Brent Jun’26 towards the upper end of a USD 96.30-98.53/bbl parameter. Mizuho expects crude to remain near USD 90/bbl through Q2 before returning to pre-conflict levels, while CBA sees upside risks while the Strait remains largely closed and physical undersupply linked to the Iran war supports prices.
Spot gold holds above USD 4,700/oz after rising 1.5% over the prior two sessions, as traders weighed hopes for a diplomatic resolution against sporadic fighting that threatened the ceasefire. However, some flagged a technical correction after the sharp rise in front-month Comex futures. The metal trades within a narrow USD 4,699-4,733/oz range at the time of writing, with the 100 DMA at USD 4,671.57/oz. Commerzbank said gold had been supported by lower oil prices, easing inflation risks and pulling down rate expectations and bond yields, though the outlook still depends on whether a lasting US-Iran settlement emerges.
Copper futures pulled back overnight and remain weak in the European session as the heightened risk appetite from the fragile US-Iran ceasefire petered out, with 3M LME copper in a narrow USD 12,587.00- 12,678.70/oz.
Brazil court suspends oil export tax for Shell (SHEL LN), Equinor (EQNR), TotalEnergies (TTE FP) and Repsol (REP SM).
OECD has urged governments to unwind expensive fuel duty cuts, according to the FT.
Japan considers releasing an additional 20 days of oil reserves, according to Kyodo.
US mulls lifting Venezuela’s central bank sanctions with the aim of increasing oil output, according to sources.
Russia is offering sanctioned LNG to Asia via intermediaries at a 40% discount.
Goldman Sachs said Brent would average above USD 100/bbl through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for another month. Adds that the situation remains fluid after the start of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, and that risks to its oil price forecast are still skewed to the upside.

Geopolitics

US President Trump posted “All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel….will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with”.
US President Trump posted “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”.
Trump admin is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that he believes were unhelpful to the US and Israel during the Iran war, WSJ reported citing admin officials. The proposal would involve moving US troops out of NATO member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and station them in countries that were more supportive of the US military campaign. The proposal would fall far short of President Trump’s recent threats to fully withdraw the US from the alliance, which by law he can’t do without Congress. Plans could also include closure of at least 1 US base in a European country, possible Spain or Germany.
NATO Secretary-General Rutte pointed out to US President Trump that a large majority of European nations have been helpful.
US officials say they do not rule out resuming fighting in Iran and that President Trump will not offer major concessions to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, adds Iran’s insistence on controlling straight reformers could lead to a resumption of fighting.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said the Speaker of Parliament will lead Iran’s delegation for the talks, and the exchange of messages continues via Pakistan, Al Jazeera reported.
Iran Ambassador to Pakistan said the Iranian delegation is to arrive on Thursday night in Islamabad for “serious talks”, based on the 10 points proposed by Iran.
IRGC Navy announces alternative shipping routes to avoid possible sea mines, according to ISNA.
IRGC claimed on Thursday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon, according to CNN.
Iranian Parliament’s Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Ibrahim Azizi said ‘”Once again, you have proven that you do not know the meaning of a ceasefire” and “Only fire will discipline you…so wait for it”.
Saudi Arabia and Iran reportedly discussed de-escalation in a call, according to SPA.
Pakistani Foreign Ministry senior source suggests US has walked back on including Lebanon in the ceasefire with Iran, Al Arabiya reported.
Israeli PM Netanyahu says will continue to strike Hezbollah with force, overnight, the IDF struck a series of terror infrastructures in southern Lebanon.
Israel’s Ministry of Energy directs the resumption of operations at the Karish gas platform after it halted due to the war, according to Israel’s Channel 12.
Hezbollah said its attacks on Israel will continue until the aggression stops, according to Fars News Agency, while it fires rockets at Israel citing ceasefire breaches.
Missile fired from Lebanon into Northern Israel, according to Fars News Agency.
Israeli attacks continue in Lebanon, despite a ceasefire with Iran, according to Anadolu Agency.
French President Macron spoke with Iran’s President Pezeshkian and US President Trump, and told both that their decision to accept the ceasefire was the best possible one.
Russia launched 119 drones at Ukraine overnight according to UKR media.

US Event Calendar

8:30 am: United States Feb Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.43%
8:30 am: United States Feb Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.38%
8:30 am: United States Feb PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.83%
8:30 am: United States Feb Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
8:30 am: United States Feb Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3%, prior 3.06%
8:30 am: United States Apr 4 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210k, prior 202k
8:30 am: United States Mar 28 Continuing Claims, est. 1828k, prior 1841k
8:30 am: United States 4Q T GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
8:30 am: United States 4Q T Personal Consumption, est. 2%, prior 2%
8:30 am: United States 4Q T GDP Price Index, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8%
8:30 am: United States 4Q T Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
10:00 am: United States Feb F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.5%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, oil prices are creeping up again as several questions remain about the ceasefire announced on Tuesday night. A few factors have driven that, but it’s pushed Brent crude oil (+2.34%) back up to $96.97/bbl, and it’s also taken the momentum out of the market rally overnight. Indeed, Asian equities are down across the board after yesterday’s surge, whilst US and European equity futures have also stumbled. So the Nikkei (-0.75%), the KOSPI (-1.61%), the CSI 300 (-0.64%) and the Hang Seng (-0.36%) have all fallen back this morning, and S&P 500 futures (-0.21%) are also pointing towards losses after a run of 6 consecutive gains.

Those overnight losses follow several indications that the ceasefire isn’t holding quite as expected on Tuesday night. For instance, both the UAE and Kuwait said yesterday that their air defences had been intercepting drones from Iran. And on the Iranian side, their Parliament’s Speaker Ghalibaf said that three points of the ceasefire agreement had been violated. Moreover, the IRGC warned of a “regret-inducing response” if Israel’s strikes against Lebanon didn’t stop immediately, whilst the Fars news agency said that the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was halted because of Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon. So collectively, that’s raised concern about how durable this ceasefire will prove, particularly with it only being a two-week truce.

In the meantime, President Trump also posted overnight that US forces would “remain in place, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” He also said that if it weren’t complied with, then the military action would be “stronger than anyone has ever seen before”, and that the US military was “looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest”. He also criticised NATO in a separate post overnight, saying that they weren’t “there when we needed them”, and called on people to “remember Greenland, that big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!”. So that raised concerns about a repeat of mid-January, when Trump’s call for the US to take Greenland and the threat of European tariffs drove a risk-off move in global markets.

Nevertheless, compared to 24 hours ago, the market stress has eased considerably, as the ceasefire news and hopes for a de-escalation pathway have created a lot more optimism. Moreover, there are still signs of progress, with White House Press Secretary Leavitt saying that Vice President JD Vance would lead a delegation to Islamabad, with a first round of talks scheduled for Saturday morning.

So despite the overnight newsflow, the net result is that fears have eased considerably about a stagflationary shock, with huge gains for bonds and equities as a result. Indeed, Brent crude oil prices saw a sharp decline of -13.29% yesterday, taking them to a 4-week low of $94.75/bbl. And in turn, there was an incredibly strong performance, particularly in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (+3.88%) posted its best performance since 2022, whilst 10yr bund yields (-14.1bps) saw their biggest decline since 2023. Similarly in the US, the S&P 500 (+2.51%) was also back within 3% of its record high, whilst US HY spreads (-17bps) fell beneath their pre-strike levels in late-February. So even with all the volatility of recent weeks it was another day of historic moves, and the overnight move for Brent crude this morning (+2.34%) still leaves us well beneath the pre-ceasefire oil price of around $110/bbl.

The ceasefire itself was the main driver of those moves, but they got further support from the positive tone of US officials yesterday. For example, President Trump said the US would “work closely with Iran”, and that they were discussing tariff and sanctions relief, though he also said in a subsequent post that countries supplying military weapons to Iran would face a US tariff of 50%. And later on, Vice President Vance said that “we’re on the right track” in negotiations.

So overall, even with the question marks around a ceasefire, the fact one had been agreed led to a huge wave of optimism, with investors feeling much clearer about the path to a de-escalation. Most directly, the prospect that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen led to a big decline in oil prices, with Brent crude (-13.29%) down to a 4-week low of $94.75/bbl, whilst WTI (-16.41%) fell to $94.41/bbl. Meanwhile, we saw a big decline in European natural gas, with front-month TTF futures (-14.92%) falling to €45.30/MWh, their lowest in over a month, which again eased fears about the scale of any European inflation shock. However, with persisting restrictions on Hormuz shipping, the declines were more modest further out the oil curve, with the 6-month Brent future (-2.33%) closing at $81.19/bbl, still above its levels late last week.

That backdrop of lower energy prices meant that inflation fears eased dramatically, which in tun led to a dovish repricing of central banks, especially in Europe. For instance, the 1yr US inflation swap plummeted by -12.9bps to 3.13%, and the 1yr Euro inflation swap fell by a huge -38bps to 3.11%. In turn, that saw investors price out the likelihood of rapid rate hikes, with the probability of an ECB hike this month down from 68% before the ceasefire announcement to 32% by yesterday’s close, and a further decline to 29% this morning.

All that meant yields saw dramatic declines in Europe. Indeed, 10yr bund yields (-14.1bps) were back down to 2.94%, marking their biggest daily decline since April 2023. At the front end, the 2yr German yield (-22.4bps) saw its biggest decline since March 2023, the week of Credit Suisse’s collapse, so it was another day of historic declines. And it a similar story across the continent, with 10yr OATs (-20.1bps), BTPs (-26.1bps) and gilts (-19.3bps) all posting their biggest declines since 2023 as well.

US Treasuries saw more muted moves, given yields had already fallen late in Tuesday’s session and oil prices were edging higher later in the US session yesterday. So both 2yr yields (-0.1bps at 3.79%) and 10yr yields (-0.2bps at 4.29%) were little changed by the close, having been 6-8bps lower on the day early on. We also got the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, which showed the uncertainty on how officials should respond to the war’s impact. It said that “most participants” were concerned that “a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a further softening in labor market conditions, which could warrant additional rate cuts”. But it also said that “Many participants pointing to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices, which could call for rate increases”.
For equities, there were also dramatic moves yesterday, as the oil price slump provided a huge lift on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, the rally was the biggest in several years, with the DAX (+5.06%) and the STOXX 600 (+3.88%) seeing their biggest gains since March 2022. Indeed, the latest gains left the STOXX 600 just over 3% beneath its record high just before the strikes began. Then in the US, the S&P 500 (+2.51%) advanced by a slightly smaller amount, but it was still a 6th consecutive advance for the index, with the VIX index of volatility (-4.74pts) down to its lowest since the strikes began, at 21.04pts. However, the main exception to those equity gains came from the energy sector, with the S&P 500’s energy component down -3.66%.

Emerging market assets were another beneficiary amid the easing energy fears, with the MSCI EM equity index (+5.49%) posting its biggest rise since the early Covid volatility in March 2020. By contrast, the dollar index (-0.73%) fell for a third consecutive session for the first time since the strikes began.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US PCE inflation for February, the weekly initial jobless claims, the third estimate of Q4 GDP, and German industrial production for February. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Sleijpen.

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Pro-Iranian hackers have breached critical U.S. infrastructure, according to a joint warning issued Tuesday by several federal agencies.

High voltage power lines run through a sub-station along the electrical power grid in Miami on Jan. 14, 2026. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The advisory came only hours ahead of President Donald Trump’s Tuesday deadline for Iran, warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran refuses to open the Hormuz Strait to oil traffic. Trump later suspended the attack following negotiations mediated by Pakistan.

Iranian cyberattacks targeting U.S. organizations have increased recently with the ongoing war against Iran, the advisory said.

In the latest breach, hackers caused disruptions through “malicious interactions” on project files and data displays in organizations across multiple U.S. critical infrastructure sectors, including government services and facilities, local municipalities, water and waste systems, and energy infrastructure.

Hackers exploited vulnerabilities in internet-connected devices used to control machinery in the key U.S. sectors.

“In a few cases, this activity has resulted in operational disruption and financial loss,” reads the advisory, which was issued by the FBI, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the National Security Agency, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, and U.S. Cyber Command’s Cyber National Mission Force.

U.S. entities that use the impacted devices, including programmable logic controllers (PLCs) from Rockwell Automation’s Allen Bradley brand, are advised to check their cyber defenses, apply safety measures listed in the warning, and review activity on their networks for indications that they were compromised to avoid the risk of further breaches.

Although the agencies specifically named the Rockwell Automation devices, they said other brands could have been affected as well.

“Due to the widespread use of these PLCs and the potential for additional targeting of other branded [operational technology] devices across critical infrastructure, the authoring agencies recommend U.S. organizations urgently review the tactics, techniques, and procedures and indicators of compromise in this advisory,” the advisory reads.

If U.S. organizations discover they were breached, they are advised to contact appropriate federal agencies for support, risk mitigation, and investigation assistance.

The joint notice Tuesday listed IP addresses that hackers used within specific time frames. The IP addresses were provided so U.S. companies can check against their own logs for indications of a breach by Iranian-backed threat actors.

“The authoring agencies recommend continually testing your security program, at scale, in a production environment to ensure optimal performance,” the warning reads.

This latest breach is not the first time Iran-backed hackers have breached critical U.S. infrastructure. In November 2023, a cyber group called “CyberAv3ngers” compromised at least 75 U.S.-based PLC devices.

Iran has also engaged in “malicious cyber activity” against key U.S. government officials and others involved in political campaigns, according to a September 2024 advisory.

“The cyber actors working on behalf of the IRGC gain access to victims’ personal and business accounts using social engineering techniques, often impersonating professional contacts on email or messaging platforms,” the 2024 notice reads.

Additionally, Iran-backed hackers targeted Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign and tried to deliver information they extracted to former President Joe Biden’s campaign.

The FBI and other agencies said in a statement that the hackers also tried sending the stolen Trump data to media organizations.

The ceasefire deal in the six-week US-Iran conflict remained in doubt by late week, as Israel intensified its bombardment of Beirut, Tehran kept the Hormuz chokepoint closed, and negotiators prepared to meet on Friday even as both sides declared victory.

Reports of attacks on one of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports, alongside the continued closure of Hormuz, did little to reassure traders in the overnight session. Risk sentiment remained fragile on Thursday morning, with equities across Asia and Europe trading lower and U.S. equity futures subdued. Brent crude hovered around $98 per barrel.

With the Hormuz chokepoint now in continued focus, reports have circulated that Iran may demand cryptocurrency payments from shipping companies for oil tankers transiting this critical waterway.

Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the Financial Times on Wednesday that Iran wanted to collect toll fees from tankers passing through the strait and inspect each vessel.

“Iran needs to monitor what goes in and out of the strait to ensure these two weeks aren’t used for transferring weapons,” said Hosseini. “Everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush.” 

He said the transit toll for the critical waterway would be $1 per barrel of oil, adding, “Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given only a few seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions.”

According to Arsenio Dominguez, head of the International Maritime Organization, imposing tolls at the maritime chokepoint would set a dangerous precedent and break with established international maritime norms, he told Bloomberg TV earlier.

“This is a dangerous precedent,” Dominguez said.

“What we cannot have is a different or parallel approach where another country introduces a mechanism that is not in line with international practice, and we don’t even know if it guarantees the safety of ships.”

He also said maritime traffic through the strait remains largely halted, while the IMO is working to restore the prewar transit rules based on the international traffic separation scheme.

“The Strait of Hormuz is not open,” says Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of Adnoc

The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But there has also been little change in traffic since that truce pic.twitter.com/d11G4jlg0S

— Stephen Stapczynski (@SStapczynski) April 9, 2026

Related Strait News:

Iran Gives Approved Hormuz Shippers “Few Seconds” To Submit Payment In Bitcoin

First Two Ships Pass Through Strait Of Hormuz Since Ceasefire As Iran Demands Payment In Crypto

Morgan Stanley No Longer Expects Strait Of Hormuz To Reopen In April

Has Concern Over Hormuz Made Us Forget The Red Sea?

Such a precedent would almost certainly not go unnoticed by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen, who already have a history of launching missiles and low-cost, one-way attack drones at vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint between Yemen and the Horn of Africa.

Any copycat tolling regime there would only deepen maritime bottlenecks and compound the risks for global shipping.

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

A new research note from Charles Schwab is challenging a simple question many investors still ask: how much cryptocurrency is “right” for a portfolio.

The answer, the firm argues, is less about prediction and more about psychology—specifically, how much volatility an investor can realistically live with.

The report focuses on exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum, two of the most widely held digital assets. While they often enter portfolios as small “satellite” positions, Schwab finds they can behave like much larger holdings once risk is taken into account.

Even allocations as low as 1% to 3% can meaningfully reshape portfolio behavior, the analysis shows. That shift is not just about returns. It is about how a portfolio feels during stress. In sharp market declines, crypto does not sit quietly in the background. It moves first, and often further than traditional assets.

“Any allocation to cryptocurrency is likely to increase a portfolio’s volatility,” the report notes, pointing to historical drawdowns that have exceeded 70% for both Bitcoin and Ethereum in past cycles.

Schwab: Steady allocations vs. risk budget

The core message is not a warning to avoid crypto, but a reminder that its role changes depending on how it is used.

Schwab outlines two frameworks investors tend to rely on.

The first is familiar: build allocations using expected returns, volatility, and correlations with stocks and bonds. In practice, this method breaks down quickly because assumptions about future crypto returns vary widely.

A second approach shifts the focus. Instead of forecasting returns, investors set a “risk budget,” deciding how much total volatility they are willing to let crypto contribute. Under this lens, portfolio construction becomes less about conviction in price targets and more about tolerance for loss.

The firm stresses that there is no single correct allocation. That uncertainty, it argues, is part of the asset class itself. Crypto behaves differently across cycles, and those differences can be uncomfortable when markets turn.

In more conservative portfolios, even a small Bitcoin position can account for a disproportionate share of total risk. That dynamic forces a tradeoff: modest allocations may limit upside, but larger ones can overwhelm the stability of the broader portfolio.

Schwab also emphasized in the report that digital assets remain speculative. They are not backed by central banks, and they lack many of the protections found in traditional securities. Liquidity, custody, and fraud risks remain part of the equation.

The report did not dismiss the asset class. Instead, it places the decision back with the investor. The question is not whether crypto belongs in a portfolio in theory, but what level of uncertainty an investor is willing to accept in practice—and how much of that uncertainty they are willing to see reflected in every market swing.

Last week, Charles Schwab announced plans for a new “Schwab Crypto” account that would let clients buy and sell bitcoin directly through its platform, marking a deeper push into spot crypto trading. 

The offering, developed under Charles Schwab Premier Bank and currently on a waitlist pending regulatory approval, would put the firm in closer competition with platforms like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull. 

In a development that has reignited outrage over North Carolina’s handling of violent repeat offenders and the mentally ill, the man accused of savagely murdering Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on a Charlotte light-rail train – saying “I got that white girl” – has been declared “incapable to proceed” with his state murder trial.

Decarlos Brown Jr., a 35-year-old homeless man with a long criminal history and diagnosed schizophrenia, was evaluated at Central Regional Hospital on December 29, 2025. Court filings made public this week reveal that mental-health experts determined he lacks the capacity to understand the proceedings or assist in his own defense. A motion filed April 7 by his state public defender in Mecklenburg Superior Court formally disclosed the findings and requested a 180-day delay of an upcoming competency hearing originally set for April 30.

The ruling throws the state first-degree murder case into limbo. Under North Carolina law, if Brown is formally ruled incompetent, the charges could eventually be dismissed without prejudice – meaning they could be refiled only if and when he is restored to competency. But restoring competency in cases like this often takes a year or more because of severe shortages at state psychiatric facilities. Brown remains in federal custody, where he faces separate charges that could still carry the death penalty.

A random horror caught on camera

The killing occurred on the evening of August 22, 2025. Twenty-three-year-old Iryna Zarutska, still wearing her black baseball cap from her shift at Zepeddie’s Pizza, boarded the Lynx Blue Line light-rail train heading home. She took a seat. Seconds later, Brown—already seated directly behind her—pulled a pocketknife from his hoodie and stabbed her three times in the neck and upper body in a sudden, unprovoked attack.

Surveillance video, which quickly circulated online, captured the gruesome moment: Zarutska’s desperate attempts to fight back as blood poured from her wounds, while other passengers initially failed to intervene. Brown stood, wandered through the train leaving a trail of blood, and exited at the East/West Boulevard station. He was arrested on the platform minutes later. Investigators say he told officers he believed the young woman had been “reading his mind.”

Zarutska, who had fled the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 seeking safety and a new life in America, died at the scene. Friends and family described her as vibrant, hardworking, and full of hope. Heart-wrenching videos later shared by loved ones showed her laughing, cooking, and enjoying simple moments with friends—images that stood in heartbreaking contrast to the brutality of her final minutes.

A suspect with a long trail of red flags

Brown was no stranger to the justice system. Court records and family statements show he had amassed more than 14 arrests in North Carolina since 2007, including charges for assault, firearms violations, and felony robbery.

Two years after he was released from a five-year sentence for robbery, the same year Zarutska fled Ukraine, Brown was arrested again for assaulting his sister, who did not pursue charges. 

His mother and sister have publicly described a sharp decline in his mental health after a prison stint, including violent outbursts, delusions, and refusal to take prescribed medication for schizophrenia. Despite multiple attempts by his family to have him involuntarily committed, he was repeatedly released – most recently on cashless bail after what authorities described as a bogus 911 call.

Critics have pointed to these repeated failures of the mental-health and criminal-justice systems as the reason Brown was free to board that light-rail train.

Dual tracks: state case stalled, federal case moves forward

While the state murder prosecution now faces indefinite delay, federal authorities are not bound by the same competency ruling. In October 2025, a federal grand jury indicted Brown on charges of committing violence resulting in death on a mass transportation system – a statute that carries the possibility of life in prison or the death penalty. President Donald Trump publicly called for capital punishment in the case shortly after the killing.

Brown’s federal defense team has also raised competency concerns, and psychiatric evaluations in the federal system are ongoing or have been extended. He is currently being held in federal custody, reportedly in Chicago.

Defense attorney Daniel Roberts confirmed to reporters that Brown’s location in federal custody is one reason the state competency hearing needs to be postponed.

Community members gather for a vigil honoring the life of Iryna Zarutska, who was fatally stabbed on a commuter train last month, Monday, Sept. 22, 2025, in Charlotte, N.C.

Following Zarutska’s murder vigils were held in Charlotte and beyond. The graphic video of the attack fueled widespread anger over “soft-on-crime” policies, cashless bail, and the revolving door for mentally ill offenders. Within two months, North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein signed “Iryna’s Law,” a sweeping criminal-justice reform package that ends cashless bail for certain violent and repeat offenders and strengthens background checks for those with serious mental-health histories.

The case also spotlighted broader failures in civil commitment laws. Brown’s family had tried—twice—to have him hospitalized against his will. The first attempt failed because he was not deemed an imminent danger to himself or others under state criteria. The second resulted in a two-week stay and medication, but he was discharged over his mother’s objections. He soon stopped taking his pills and spiraled again.

What happens next?

For Zarutska’s loved ones, the latest court development feels like another cruel delay in seeing justice done. Her boyfriend and family have spoken out repeatedly, slamming the system that allowed a man with such a clear record of violence and mental instability to roam the streets.

Brown’s state case is now effectively on ice. If he is never restored to competency – a real possibility given the backlog of psychiatric beds—the state charges could be dropped permanently. The federal case, however, remains active and could still result in a trial and severe punishment.

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

There are eight key indicators to watch as the US government falls deeper into the self-perpetuating debt spiral.

Indicator #1: Federal Budget Deficits

The chart below shows the actual and projected federal budget deficits.

It’s important to note that these projections rest on the ridiculous assumption that there will be no wars, recessions, or other events that drive additional federal spending. That assumption is already out the window with the Iran war: the Pentagon has requested an additional $200 billion, for starters.

Even with this rosy and unrealistic forecast, the US government is projected to run a cumulative deficit of over $22 trillion over the next ten years—deficits that will have to be financed by issuing more debt, a significant share of which will likely be bought by the Federal Reserve with “money” it creates out of thin air.

Indicator #2: The Federal Debt

The federal debt has exceeded $39 trillion, representing more than 124% of GDP.

It’s important to remember that GDP is a flawed statistic. For example, it counts government spending as a positive. A more honest measure would count government spending as a big negative, as it compounds the debt spiral. In the US, government spending accounts for at least 37% of GDP.

In other words, the amount of debt relative to the productive economy is much more than the official numbers suggest.

Indicator #3: The Federal Interest Expense

Annualized interest on the federal debt exceeds $1.2 trillion and is surging higher. That means more than 23% of federal tax revenue is going just to service interest on the existing debt.

The interest cost on the federal debt is already the US government’s second-largest outlay. It’s set to exceed Social Security and become the biggest federal expenditure in a matter of months.

Indicator #4: The Federal Funds Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

Whenever discussing the Fed or central banks, it’s essential to keep the basics in mind.

You have to start with the most fundamental concept: central planning doesn’t work. That’s the first principle.

Central planning of shoes doesn’t work. Central planning of wheat doesn’t work. And central planning of (fake) money doesn’t work.

Central banks in general—and the Fed in particular—are on a mission impossible. They don’t know what the interest rate should be. Nobody does. That’s something only a voluntary market of savers and borrowers, dealing in honest money, can determine.

A politburo can’t centrally plan interest rates any more than it can potatoes. They are inevitably going to fail—and cause significant damage in the process.

It’s also crucial to remember that central banks have nothing to do with the free market. They are, in fact, the antithesis of it.

In Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto, central banking is the fifth plank.

With that important context in mind, consider the following.

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed brought interest rates to roughly 0% and held them there for years.

Then, in late 2015, they started a rate-hiking cycle that lasted until the repo market turmoil in late 2019.

After the outbreak of the Covid hysteria in early 2020, the Fed brought interest rates back down to around 0%.

Inflation subsequently hit 40-year highs in 2022, forcing the Fed into another rate-hiking cycle, one of the steepest in history.

In just 18 months, the Fed hiked rates from around 0% to over 5%.

The Fed has now pivoted back to monetary easing and rate cuts without having defeated inflation.

The Federal Reserve essentially controls short-term interest rates, such as the Federal Funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.

Long-term interest rates, like the 10-year Treasury yield, work differently. These rates are shaped by a much larger market influenced by various factors beyond the Fed’s control.

While the Fed has significant influence and can impact long-term rates by purchasing bonds like the 10-Year Treasury, other market dynamics also play a role. In short, the Fed can exert some influence over long-term rates but does not fully control them.

The 10-year Treasury yield reflects the annual return an investor can expect if they purchase a 10-year US Treasury bond today and hold it until maturity.

The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system, as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide. It is widely (and erroneously) thought of as the risk-free rate of return.

The 10-year Treasury yield can be thought of as a key barometer of the US dollar-based fiat system—a critical measure akin to its “beating heart.”

Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise.

A rising 10-year Treasury yield signals trouble for the US dollar because it indicates that investors are selling off bonds, which increases the US government’s borrowing costs.

Indicator #5: The Fed’s Balance Sheet

The Fed recently announced that it has ended the shrinking of its balance sheet and will now begin expanding it again.

The Fed insists this isn’t quantitative easing, calling it “reserve management” and pointing out that it isn’t explicitly targeting long-term Treasuries. That’s just wordplay. Buying Treasuries with newly created money is money printing, regardless of what label they attach to it. The Fed’s balance sheet is expanding again. A new printing cycle has begun.

We’ve seen this pattern repeatedly. The Fed expands its balance sheet, then tries to shrink it. Something eventually breaks in the financial system, and the Fed pivots right back to easing and money creation. Each time this happens, the balance sheet never returns to its prior level. It ratchets permanently higher with every cycle of debasement.

What makes the current situation especially telling is that the Fed is entering another balance-sheet expansion phase even though the balance sheet is still more than 50% larger than it was before the Covid mass psychosis.

Before 2020, the Fed’s balance sheet was roughly $4 trillion. It exploded to nearly $9 trillion during the Covid response. Even after so-called “quantitative tightening,” it remains nowhere near its pre-Covid level.

This completely contradicts the Fed’s long-standing claim that programs like QE are temporary.

Remember when former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke promised the balance sheet would eventually normalize after the 2008 financial crisis? That promise was made nearly 15 years ago, when the Fed’s balance sheet was around $2.5 trillion and was supposed to shrink back toward pre-crisis levels below $1 trillion. Instead, today the balance sheet is more than double what it was when Bernanke made that pledge — and now the Fed is entering yet another expansion cycle that threatens to push it even higher.

The long-term trend is obvious. The balance sheet only goes one direction: up. And the implication is unavoidable. Every time the Fed expands its balance sheet, it debases the currency. This isn’t an accident or a temporary policy error — it’s the core feature of the system.

If you’re wondering what comes next, look at the chart below—and note what followed the last time the Fed shifted from shrinking its balance sheet to expanding it.

We are now in the top of the first inning of what may become the most aggressive balance sheet expansion cycle in the Fed’s history.

Indicator #6: Money Supply

Imagine working 9 to 5 for 50 years, only for the Federal Reserve to print 40% of the money supply and inflate away 20 years of your hard work.

You don’t have to imagine—it actually happened during the COVID mass psychosis, as governments worldwide indulged in a frenzy of currency debasement.

I have no doubt that something like this or much worse will happen again soon.

Remember, the Fed has only two tools in its toolbox: currency debasement and gaslighting.

The skyrocketing interest expense forces the Fed to implement interest cost control policies, which inflate the money supply. These include buying Treasuries with money the Fed creates out of thin air and similar measures.

No matter what the Fed calls it, the only way they can try to control interest costs is to inflate the money supply.

However, that is ultimately self-defeating because it creates inflation, which causes bond investors to demand high interest rates to compensate for.

Regardless, the Fed inflates the money supply anyway in a misguided attempt to control interest costs because that is the only thing it can do.

The long-term average YoY change in the money supply is 6.8% per year.

Indicator #7: Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most politically manipulated statistic in all of government. That is saying something because many government statistics are completely manipulated, but inflation, as measured by the CPI, is probably the most manipulated.

The CPI is a basket of prices trying to measure the average price changes for 340 million Americans.

It’s an impossible task because every individual has a different price basket. Consider someone who lives in New York City compared to someone who lives in rural Montana. They have totally different price baskets.

Using the CPI as a measure of price increases for 340 million people is even more preposterous than taking the average temperature across 50 states in the US as a meaningful statistic to determine what clothes you should wear today.

Further, the government gets to cherry-pick what items go in the CPI basket and their weightings. It’s like letting a student grade his own paper.

In short, the CPI is misleading government propaganda intended to conceal the government’s atrocious currency debasement.

All that being said, it is useful to monitor the CPI, not as a meaningful metric to gauge inflation, but as a metric to analyze the Fed’s actions and gaslighting.

Indicator #8: The Gold Price

Gold is mankind’s most enduring form of money—for over 5,000 years—because of its unique characteristics that made it best suited to store and exchange value.

Gold is durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, scarce, and most importantly, the “hardest” of all physical commodities.

In other words, gold is the one physical commodity that is the “hardest to produce” (relative to existing stockpiles) and, therefore, the most resistant to debasement.

Gold is indestructible, and its stockpiles have built up over thousands of years. That’s a big reason why the growth of new gold supply—typically 1-2% per year—is insignificant.

In other words, nobody can arbitrarily inflate the supply.

That makes gold an excellent store of value and gives the yellow metal its superior monetary properties.

People in every country of the world value gold. Its worth doesn’t depend on any government or any counterparty at all. Gold has always been an inherently international and politically neutral asset. This is why different civilizations around the world have used gold as money for millennia.

From a historical point of view, using fiat currency as money is a relatively new concept. As it fades, I expect people will rediscover the world’s premier money: gold.

This trend is already well underway.

I expect the price of gold, which is already hitting record highs, to soar as this all plays out.

These eight indicators all point in the same direction: more debt, more money printing, and more damage to the dollar’s purchasing power.

To see what this could mean for your financial future—and the three practical moves you can make now—I recommend reading a free special report I just published before the next stage of the crisis unfolds. Click here to get the free report now.

Weather forecasters are sounding the alarm about what could become a “super” El Niño event, potentially one of the strongest on record.

“Strongest El Niño on record this year?!” meteorologist Ben Noll wrote on X. Noll said the latest ECMWF outlook indicates a 75% chance of a super El Niño by October, with “some scenarios suggesting the most intense event in more than a century.”

Strongest El Niño on record this year?!

New ECMWF guidance shows a *75% chance of a super El Niño* by October, with some scenarios suggesting the most intense event in more than a century.

It will bring wide-reaching weather impacts that last into 2027 🧵 pic.twitter.com/cRZrxGCxAa

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) April 6, 2026

Noll said, “El Niño forming by May, potentially becoming strong by August — new ECMWF seasonal modeling.”

Latest El Niño odds:

22% chance of a super El Niño by August

80% chance of a strong event

98% chance of a moderate event

El Niño forming by May, potentially becoming strong by August — new ECMWF seasonal modeling.

By the numbers:

• 22% chance of a super El Niño by August
• 80% chance of a strong event
• 98% chance of a moderate event

That’s according to data from 50 ensemble members. pic.twitter.com/LDOogrRcEC

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) March 6, 2026

Meteorologist Ryan Maue noted:

New maps causing meteorologists to lose their minds in disbelief at massive heat build-up in the Equatorial Pacific

The oceans will not literally be boiling red 🔴 in the early autumn, but the Super El Niño will drive unprecedented global extreme weather events. pic.twitter.com/cEAmGIHuFI

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) April 7, 2026

Impacts for agri traders:

As we get into the middle/end of the growing season, the influence of a Super El Niño will need to be monitored going forward in all outlooks. Check out the SST Anomalies for August!

Come chat with us about this as we continue to tweak summer outlooks: https://t.co/FOJHGVeXkc pic.twitter.com/GgTB4XXNJn

— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) April 7, 2026

If that scenario materializes, it could shift weather patterns worldwide, increasing the risk of flooding in some regions, drought and wildfires in others, and further raising global temperatures. An El Niño event typically strengthens the Pacific jet stream and redistributes heat and moisture globally.

Across the U.S., an El Niño influences seasonal rainfall, especially during winter. The stronger, more active jet stream typically shifts south, bringing wetter-than-average conditions to the southern U.S., including California, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-South.

The good news is that El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity.

Remember, left-wing corporate media is just a few months away from firing up the “hottest ever” global warming headlines to peddle junk climate science.

Global warming doomers, such as Greta, have shifted more recently from climate alarmism to Palestine activism. It is all about following the money.