Category: News
$43,000 Front-Row Seats: How Soccer Fans Are Being Priced Out Of World Cup
$43,000 Front-Row Seats: How Soccer Fans Are Being Priced Out Of World Cup
Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
First-round match ticket: $280 to $43,000.
Stadium daily parking pass: $150 to $600.
Public transportation to venues: $100 or more in some cities.
In-person 2026 FIFA World Cup experience: Priceless, or somewhere between a mortgage payment and a year or two of college, depending on who you ask.
Americans and international soccer fans alike suffered serious sticker shock over the cost of attending the biggest sporting event on the globe this summer, and that’s before calculating airfare and accommodations.
This year’s event features 48 teams and 104 matches in 16 host cities across the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
So far, FIFA’s dynamic pricing system for more than 1 million tickets has even the die-hard fanatics questioning whether this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity is worth taking on months—or years—of debt.
Out of Reach
Joyanne Howell of Toronto tried to plan a vacation with her son around the 2026 World Cup. She hoped to see the opening match in Mexico on June 11, and then catch a group play match in Monterrey featuring Portugal, Morocco, Japan, or South Africa. The trip would have exceeded $15,000, with event tickets the largest expense.
“It’s been a lifelong dream of mine to attend the World Cup,” Howell told The Epoch Times. “The corporate greed is at an all-time high, and it’s ruining what used to be a wonderful event. I’m not interested in supporting FIFA in this.”
On top of the sky-high ticket prices, Howell added, there’s the new match format—which adds several subpar squads to the games, increasing the number of teams from 32 to 48—and current global instability.
“It just doesn’t seem worth it to invest in this World Cup,” she said.
Dean Foti, a coaching director for a regional youth soccer organization in upstate New York, said complaints about unreasonable World Cup ticket prices were especially spirited among coaches and families who had hoped to visit a venue this summer.
“Unfortunately, the common fan has been priced out of attending,” he told The Epoch Times.
He said many folks also didn’t like FIFA’s initial lottery, in which tickets were sold by venue and date even though the matchups were unknown at the time.
“Haven’t met one yet that said, ‘You won’t believe what a great deal I just got on World Cup tickets,” he said.
Dynamic Pricing
FIFA, a nonprofit serving as professional soccer’s world governing body, entered into individual agreements with host cities and venues to rent the stadiums. It set the initial prices of tickets, which have been sold in phases to adjust to market demand.
The organization maintains that most of the revenue from ticket sales, television broadcasting rights, and licensed merchandise sales covers the cost of organizing and governing more than 200 leagues, competitions, and programs across six continents.
A glance at the StubHub website shows high prices and fluctuation: a nosebleed seat at the Qatar versus Switzerland match on June 13 in Santa Clara, California, for $280; a front-row seat near center circle for the United States against Australia on June 19 in Seattle for $43,900; tickets for the July 14 semi-final in Arlington, Texas, starting at $2,064.
For the U.S. squad’s other two group play matches, SeatGeek lists the June 12 game against Paraguay at $1,500 and against Turkey on June 25 at $1,366. Both games will be held in Los Angeles.
Online ticket sites also show that parking fees in some of the U.S. cities start at $100 and increase by location and phase of competition. Vehicle spots for Argentina versus Algeria on June 16 in Kansas City, Missouri, range from $150 to $600, while the cost at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium for a June 30 quarterfinal match is $225.
An American Concept
Keith Pagello, founder of Kentucky-based analytics company TicketData, said FIFA adopted this method of ticket sales from the major American professional sports leagues, which command sky-high prices for playoff games.
The global soccer organization, he added, is still advertising last-minute sales, in which a limited number of tickets for mediocre seats are released for $1,100 or more “to portray the image of scarcity.”
“I’ve never seen so many last-minute sales,” Pagello told The Epoch Times. “But they’re certainly not softening their price at this point.”
He said the most outrageous prices listed by resellers right now, such as $43,000 for front row at the United States versus Australia, were not set by FIFA.
“Anybody can ask any price for any ticket,” he said.
It may be too soon to determine whether FIFA and resellers can command such high prices, or if they’ll drop closer to the event.
“The big question is, how many tickets do they still have left?” Pagello said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if 10,000 seats still sit in FIFA’s pocket for many of the games.”
Pagello’s data, much of which is publicly available on his website, indicates that after fans from the host nations, fans from Brazil and Argentina are buying the most tickets, based on the prices to see those two national squads play.
Hotel rooms and lodging near the venue sites typically exceed $200 in the summer months. Several major sports publications have reported that the price of accommodation hasn’t yet spiked to the degree initially predicted in part because fans hesitate to pay so much for tickets, so that situation could change either way in the weeks ahead.
Government Pushback
Federal lawmakers also took offense to the high admission prices. In a March 10 letter to FIFA President Gianni Infantino, 69 members of Congress said, “The extreme high demand for World Cup tickets should not be a green light for price gouging at the expense of the people who make the World Cup the most watched sporting event in the world.”
The lawmakers said the federal government will spend $625 million to reimburse municipal law enforcement agencies, and each U.S. host city will spend about $150 million on infrastructure improvements, transportation, and security preparations. Locals who are fortunate enough to afford tickets have already paid taxes for these services.
Moreover, because FIFA prohibits local sponsorships, host cities are collectively facing a $250 million shortfall for this event. They may have to charge admission to World Cup Fan Fests, which have traditionally been free.
“We urge FIFA to take immediate corrective action to address the harms caused by its use of dynamic pricing, which has transformed the world’s largest sporting event into an exclusionary, profit-driven enterprise at the direct expense of fans, host communities, and public taxpayers,” the letter said.
Ticket prices aren’t the only high cost steaming elected leaders. On April 17, New Jersey Transit announced that round-trip rail tickets from Manhattan to MetLife Stadium will be $150. The New York/New Jersey World Cup host committee will also offer a round-trip shuttle bus, with tickets costing $80 each.
Read the rest here…
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2026 – 07:20
$43,000 Front-Row Seats: How Soccer Fans Are Being Priced Out Of World Cup
$43,000 Front-Row Seats: How Soccer Fans Are Being Priced Out Of World Cup
Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
First-round match ticket: $280 to $43,000.
Stadium daily parking pass: $150 to $600.
Public transportation to venues: $100 or more in some cities.
In-person 2026 FIFA World Cup experience: Priceless, or somewhere between a mortgage payment and a year or two of college, depending on who you ask.
Americans and international soccer fans alike suffered serious sticker shock over the cost of attending the biggest sporting event on the globe this summer, and that’s before calculating airfare and accommodations.
This year’s event features 48 teams and 104 matches in 16 host cities across the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
So far, FIFA’s dynamic pricing system for more than 1 million tickets has even the die-hard fanatics questioning whether this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity is worth taking on months—or years—of debt.
Out of Reach
Joyanne Howell of Toronto tried to plan a vacation with her son around the 2026 World Cup. She hoped to see the opening match in Mexico on June 11, and then catch a group play match in Monterrey featuring Portugal, Morocco, Japan, or South Africa. The trip would have exceeded $15,000, with event tickets the largest expense.
“It’s been a lifelong dream of mine to attend the World Cup,” Howell told The Epoch Times. “The corporate greed is at an all-time high, and it’s ruining what used to be a wonderful event. I’m not interested in supporting FIFA in this.”
On top of the sky-high ticket prices, Howell added, there’s the new match format—which adds several subpar squads to the games, increasing the number of teams from 32 to 48—and current global instability.
“It just doesn’t seem worth it to invest in this World Cup,” she said.
Dean Foti, a coaching director for a regional youth soccer organization in upstate New York, said complaints about unreasonable World Cup ticket prices were especially spirited among coaches and families who had hoped to visit a venue this summer.
“Unfortunately, the common fan has been priced out of attending,” he told The Epoch Times.
He said many folks also didn’t like FIFA’s initial lottery, in which tickets were sold by venue and date even though the matchups were unknown at the time.
“Haven’t met one yet that said, ‘You won’t believe what a great deal I just got on World Cup tickets,” he said.
Dynamic Pricing
FIFA, a nonprofit serving as professional soccer’s world governing body, entered into individual agreements with host cities and venues to rent the stadiums. It set the initial prices of tickets, which have been sold in phases to adjust to market demand.
The organization maintains that most of the revenue from ticket sales, television broadcasting rights, and licensed merchandise sales covers the cost of organizing and governing more than 200 leagues, competitions, and programs across six continents.
A glance at the StubHub website shows high prices and fluctuation: a nosebleed seat at the Qatar versus Switzerland match on June 13 in Santa Clara, California, for $280; a front-row seat near center circle for the United States against Australia on June 19 in Seattle for $43,900; tickets for the July 14 semi-final in Arlington, Texas, starting at $2,064.
For the U.S. squad’s other two group play matches, SeatGeek lists the June 12 game against Paraguay at $1,500 and against Turkey on June 25 at $1,366. Both games will be held in Los Angeles.
Online ticket sites also show that parking fees in some of the U.S. cities start at $100 and increase by location and phase of competition. Vehicle spots for Argentina versus Algeria on June 16 in Kansas City, Missouri, range from $150 to $600, while the cost at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium for a June 30 quarterfinal match is $225.
An American Concept
Keith Pagello, founder of Kentucky-based analytics company TicketData, said FIFA adopted this method of ticket sales from the major American professional sports leagues, which command sky-high prices for playoff games.
The global soccer organization, he added, is still advertising last-minute sales, in which a limited number of tickets for mediocre seats are released for $1,100 or more “to portray the image of scarcity.”
“I’ve never seen so many last-minute sales,” Pagello told The Epoch Times. “But they’re certainly not softening their price at this point.”
He said the most outrageous prices listed by resellers right now, such as $43,000 for front row at the United States versus Australia, were not set by FIFA.
“Anybody can ask any price for any ticket,” he said.
It may be too soon to determine whether FIFA and resellers can command such high prices, or if they’ll drop closer to the event.
“The big question is, how many tickets do they still have left?” Pagello said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if 10,000 seats still sit in FIFA’s pocket for many of the games.”
Pagello’s data, much of which is publicly available on his website, indicates that after fans from the host nations, fans from Brazil and Argentina are buying the most tickets, based on the prices to see those two national squads play.
Hotel rooms and lodging near the venue sites typically exceed $200 in the summer months. Several major sports publications have reported that the price of accommodation hasn’t yet spiked to the degree initially predicted in part because fans hesitate to pay so much for tickets, so that situation could change either way in the weeks ahead.
Government Pushback
Federal lawmakers also took offense to the high admission prices. In a March 10 letter to FIFA President Gianni Infantino, 69 members of Congress said, “The extreme high demand for World Cup tickets should not be a green light for price gouging at the expense of the people who make the World Cup the most watched sporting event in the world.”
The lawmakers said the federal government will spend $625 million to reimburse municipal law enforcement agencies, and each U.S. host city will spend about $150 million on infrastructure improvements, transportation, and security preparations. Locals who are fortunate enough to afford tickets have already paid taxes for these services.
Moreover, because FIFA prohibits local sponsorships, host cities are collectively facing a $250 million shortfall for this event. They may have to charge admission to World Cup Fan Fests, which have traditionally been free.
“We urge FIFA to take immediate corrective action to address the harms caused by its use of dynamic pricing, which has transformed the world’s largest sporting event into an exclusionary, profit-driven enterprise at the direct expense of fans, host communities, and public taxpayers,” the letter said.
Ticket prices aren’t the only high cost steaming elected leaders. On April 17, New Jersey Transit announced that round-trip rail tickets from Manhattan to MetLife Stadium will be $150. The New York/New Jersey World Cup host committee will also offer a round-trip shuttle bus, with tickets costing $80 each.
Read the rest here…
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2026 – 07:20
$43,000 Front-Row Seats: How Soccer Fans Are Being Priced Out Of World Cup
$43,000 Front-Row Seats: How Soccer Fans Are Being Priced Out Of World Cup
Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
First-round match ticket: $280 to $43,000.
Stadium daily parking pass: $150 to $600.
Public transportation to venues: $100 or more in some cities.
In-person 2026 FIFA World Cup experience: Priceless, or somewhere between a mortgage payment and a year or two of college, depending on who you ask.
Americans and international soccer fans alike suffered serious sticker shock over the cost of attending the biggest sporting event on the globe this summer, and that’s before calculating airfare and accommodations.
This year’s event features 48 teams and 104 matches in 16 host cities across the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
So far, FIFA’s dynamic pricing system for more than 1 million tickets has even the die-hard fanatics questioning whether this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity is worth taking on months—or years—of debt.
Out of Reach
Joyanne Howell of Toronto tried to plan a vacation with her son around the 2026 World Cup. She hoped to see the opening match in Mexico on June 11, and then catch a group play match in Monterrey featuring Portugal, Morocco, Japan, or South Africa. The trip would have exceeded $15,000, with event tickets the largest expense.
“It’s been a lifelong dream of mine to attend the World Cup,” Howell told The Epoch Times. “The corporate greed is at an all-time high, and it’s ruining what used to be a wonderful event. I’m not interested in supporting FIFA in this.”
On top of the sky-high ticket prices, Howell added, there’s the new match format—which adds several subpar squads to the games, increasing the number of teams from 32 to 48—and current global instability.
“It just doesn’t seem worth it to invest in this World Cup,” she said.
Dean Foti, a coaching director for a regional youth soccer organization in upstate New York, said complaints about unreasonable World Cup ticket prices were especially spirited among coaches and families who had hoped to visit a venue this summer.
“Unfortunately, the common fan has been priced out of attending,” he told The Epoch Times.
He said many folks also didn’t like FIFA’s initial lottery, in which tickets were sold by venue and date even though the matchups were unknown at the time.
“Haven’t met one yet that said, ‘You won’t believe what a great deal I just got on World Cup tickets,” he said.
Dynamic Pricing
FIFA, a nonprofit serving as professional soccer’s world governing body, entered into individual agreements with host cities and venues to rent the stadiums. It set the initial prices of tickets, which have been sold in phases to adjust to market demand.
The organization maintains that most of the revenue from ticket sales, television broadcasting rights, and licensed merchandise sales covers the cost of organizing and governing more than 200 leagues, competitions, and programs across six continents.
A glance at the StubHub website shows high prices and fluctuation: a nosebleed seat at the Qatar versus Switzerland match on June 13 in Santa Clara, California, for $280; a front-row seat near center circle for the United States against Australia on June 19 in Seattle for $43,900; tickets for the July 14 semi-final in Arlington, Texas, starting at $2,064.
For the U.S. squad’s other two group play matches, SeatGeek lists the June 12 game against Paraguay at $1,500 and against Turkey on June 25 at $1,366. Both games will be held in Los Angeles.
Online ticket sites also show that parking fees in some of the U.S. cities start at $100 and increase by location and phase of competition. Vehicle spots for Argentina versus Algeria on June 16 in Kansas City, Missouri, range from $150 to $600, while the cost at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium for a June 30 quarterfinal match is $225.
An American Concept
Keith Pagello, founder of Kentucky-based analytics company TicketData, said FIFA adopted this method of ticket sales from the major American professional sports leagues, which command sky-high prices for playoff games.
The global soccer organization, he added, is still advertising last-minute sales, in which a limited number of tickets for mediocre seats are released for $1,100 or more “to portray the image of scarcity.”
“I’ve never seen so many last-minute sales,” Pagello told The Epoch Times. “But they’re certainly not softening their price at this point.”
He said the most outrageous prices listed by resellers right now, such as $43,000 for front row at the United States versus Australia, were not set by FIFA.
“Anybody can ask any price for any ticket,” he said.
It may be too soon to determine whether FIFA and resellers can command such high prices, or if they’ll drop closer to the event.
“The big question is, how many tickets do they still have left?” Pagello said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if 10,000 seats still sit in FIFA’s pocket for many of the games.”
Pagello’s data, much of which is publicly available on his website, indicates that after fans from the host nations, fans from Brazil and Argentina are buying the most tickets, based on the prices to see those two national squads play.
Hotel rooms and lodging near the venue sites typically exceed $200 in the summer months. Several major sports publications have reported that the price of accommodation hasn’t yet spiked to the degree initially predicted in part because fans hesitate to pay so much for tickets, so that situation could change either way in the weeks ahead.
Government Pushback
Federal lawmakers also took offense to the high admission prices. In a March 10 letter to FIFA President Gianni Infantino, 69 members of Congress said, “The extreme high demand for World Cup tickets should not be a green light for price gouging at the expense of the people who make the World Cup the most watched sporting event in the world.”
The lawmakers said the federal government will spend $625 million to reimburse municipal law enforcement agencies, and each U.S. host city will spend about $150 million on infrastructure improvements, transportation, and security preparations. Locals who are fortunate enough to afford tickets have already paid taxes for these services.
Moreover, because FIFA prohibits local sponsorships, host cities are collectively facing a $250 million shortfall for this event. They may have to charge admission to World Cup Fan Fests, which have traditionally been free.
“We urge FIFA to take immediate corrective action to address the harms caused by its use of dynamic pricing, which has transformed the world’s largest sporting event into an exclusionary, profit-driven enterprise at the direct expense of fans, host communities, and public taxpayers,” the letter said.
Ticket prices aren’t the only high cost steaming elected leaders. On April 17, New Jersey Transit announced that round-trip rail tickets from Manhattan to MetLife Stadium will be $150. The New York/New Jersey World Cup host committee will also offer a round-trip shuttle bus, with tickets costing $80 each.
Read the rest here…
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2026 – 07:20
Goldman’s State Of U.S. Consumer Outlook Gets More Grim
Goldman’s State Of U.S. Consumer Outlook Gets More Grim
Goldman consumer analysts Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog cut their 2026 discretionary cash-inflow growth forecast for the second time this year, citing a worsening squeeze on U.S. households as slower disposable income growth collides with higher fuel prices at the pump. The revision points to a softening among cash-strapped consumers as the US-Iran conflict enters its third month.
McShane and Herzog cut their 2026 U.S. discretionary cash inflow growth to 3.7% from the previous forecast of 4.2% in early April, as slower disposable income growth and the national average gasoline price over $4 per gallon squeeze household spending power.
Their revision reflects a lower forecast for disposable personal income growth of 4.7%, down from 5.0%, as tax cut benefits from President Trump’s OBBBA are now seen largely offsetting higher capital gains tax payments, leaving the overall tax bill roughly unchanged from last year.
The largest drag on consumers is energy, as Goldman analysts at the start of the week raised their fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, citing ongoing disruptions in Persian Gulf production, a delayed normalization of Gulf exports to late June, and a slower recovery timeline for output.
“Accordingly, we now expect energy spending to grow by 14.4% in 2026 (vs. 12.3% prior) to reflect higher energy futures,” the analysts said.
They warned that $100 Brent will create a 50-basis-point headwind to aggregate U.S. discretionary spending power in 2026, with working-poor households taking the brunt of the hit, at about 135 bps.
Here’s their current view on the consumer for 2026:
Our economists expect a total tax benefit of around $75-90bn from the OBBBA but roughly unchanged tax bill y/y, resulting in a limited tailwind for consumer spending. Based on our economists’ forecasts, we now expect +4.7% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +5.0% when we last updated in early April), following +4.4% DPI growth in 2025, which is ahead of historical levels (i.e., 2009-2019 average annual growth of 4.0%).
We expect this to translate into a lower net household cash inflow of +4.2% in 2026 (vs. 4.6% prior from our early April analysis), representing a slight improvement over the +4.1% growth in 2025. Elevated interest rates were a meaningful burden on the US consumer over the past few years and our economists continue expect two 25bps rate cuts in 2026. Accordingly, we model 7.8% growth in mortgage equity withdrawals (MEW) and 7.7% growth in borrowings for 2026. We continue to anticipate modest relief from a slightly more favorable interest rate environment; our forecast for financial obligations remains unchanged at +14.3% of DPI in 2026, compared to +14.5% in 2025.
We model essential expenditures to grow by +7.4% in 2026 (unchanged), well above the +4.3% growth seen in 2025. This is predicated on +14.4% growth in spending on energy goods and services (vs. +12.3% prior) and +5.3% growth in food spending (vs. +6.6% prior), both up from +1.1% and +3.7% growth, respectively, in 2025. We raise our energy goods and services spending expectation to reflect higher energy futures, while we slightly temper our food inflation expectation due to lower than expected Feb data. This, coupled with our lower DPI growth assumption, translates into +3.7% discretionary cash inflow growth in 2026 (vs. +4.2% prior), representing a marginal sequential decline compared to +4.0% growth in 2025.
By income quintile, higher gasoline prices will disproportionately burden the bottom-income quintile, who spend roughly four times as much on gasoline as a share of after-tax income compared to the top quintile. We expect the bottom-income quintile to lag the aggregate US household with +4.2% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +4.7% aggregate) as our economists continue to expect tepid job growth. Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits, and now greater exposure to the increase in gasoline prices are cost headwinds to this income cohort. Our pre-savings DCF expectations for the bottom quintile remain unchanged at +0.8% for 2026, well below the +3.7% aggregate growth rate. Overall, pre-savings DCF expectations for 2026 have moved lower by 30-40bps across all other quintiles due to the lower expected DPI growth.
Our adjusted discretionary cash flow growth takes consumers estimated savings rate into account. Consistent with historical patterns where consumers dissave to cover higher energy costs, we now expect the savings rate to be lower than previously estimated in 2026, now at 4.3% of DPI (vs. 4.5% prior), below 2025 savings levels of 4.6% of DPI. Ultimately, a nearly 40bps lower discretionary cash inflow for 2026 relative to our prior forecast is balanced by a lower savings rate to drive adjusted DCF growth (a proxy for PCE growth) of +4.2% in 2026 (unchanged), though still below the +5.1% growth seen in 2025.
Exhibit 2:
Exhibit 3:
Exhibit 4:
Exhibit 5/6:
Exhibit 7:
Exhibit 8:
Exhibit 9:
Exhibit 10:
“Given the continued volatility in oil prices, we present a hypothetical sensitivity analysis to estimate the impact on adj. discretionary cash flow for every 10%, 15%, and 20% increase in energy goods and services spending relative to our current modeled assumptions. Additionally, we believe higher energy prices would impact consumer spending power, and we see an over ~50bps headwind for consumer discretionary spending power for US households in aggregate in 2026, and ~135bps headwind for the bottom-quintile, assuming ~$100/bbl pricing holds,” the analysts said.
Exhibit 12:
Exhibit 13:
Exhibit 14:
What could change Goldman’s consumer outlook is a U.S.-Iran peace deal. But the UAE’s exit from OPEC adds another downside risk for crude: the cartel’s ability to defend prices is weakened just as any ceasefire and normalization of Hormuz traffic could send Brent and WTI prices cratering.
Professional subscribers can read Goldman’s full “State of the US Consumer” note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2026 – 06:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/goldmans-state-us-consumer-outlook-gets-more-grim
Goldman’s State Of U.S. Consumer Outlook Gets More Grim
Goldman’s State Of U.S. Consumer Outlook Gets More Grim
Goldman consumer analysts Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog cut their 2026 discretionary cash-inflow growth forecast for the second time this year, citing a worsening squeeze on U.S. households as slower disposable income growth collides with higher fuel prices at the pump. The revision points to a softening among cash-strapped consumers as the US-Iran conflict enters its third month.
McShane and Herzog cut their 2026 U.S. discretionary cash inflow growth to 3.7% from the previous forecast of 4.2% in early April, as slower disposable income growth and the national average gasoline price over $4 per gallon squeeze household spending power.
Their revision reflects a lower forecast for disposable personal income growth of 4.7%, down from 5.0%, as tax cut benefits from President Trump’s OBBBA are now seen largely offsetting higher capital gains tax payments, leaving the overall tax bill roughly unchanged from last year.
The largest drag on consumers is energy, as Goldman analysts at the start of the week raised their fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, citing ongoing disruptions in Persian Gulf production, a delayed normalization of Gulf exports to late June, and a slower recovery timeline for output.
“Accordingly, we now expect energy spending to grow by 14.4% in 2026 (vs. 12.3% prior) to reflect higher energy futures,” the analysts said.
They warned that $100 Brent will create a 50-basis-point headwind to aggregate U.S. discretionary spending power in 2026, with working-poor households taking the brunt of the hit, at about 135 bps.
Here’s their current view on the consumer for 2026:
Our economists expect a total tax benefit of around $75-90bn from the OBBBA but roughly unchanged tax bill y/y, resulting in a limited tailwind for consumer spending. Based on our economists’ forecasts, we now expect +4.7% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +5.0% when we last updated in early April), following +4.4% DPI growth in 2025, which is ahead of historical levels (i.e., 2009-2019 average annual growth of 4.0%).
We expect this to translate into a lower net household cash inflow of +4.2% in 2026 (vs. 4.6% prior from our early April analysis), representing a slight improvement over the +4.1% growth in 2025. Elevated interest rates were a meaningful burden on the US consumer over the past few years and our economists continue expect two 25bps rate cuts in 2026. Accordingly, we model 7.8% growth in mortgage equity withdrawals (MEW) and 7.7% growth in borrowings for 2026. We continue to anticipate modest relief from a slightly more favorable interest rate environment; our forecast for financial obligations remains unchanged at +14.3% of DPI in 2026, compared to +14.5% in 2025.
We model essential expenditures to grow by +7.4% in 2026 (unchanged), well above the +4.3% growth seen in 2025. This is predicated on +14.4% growth in spending on energy goods and services (vs. +12.3% prior) and +5.3% growth in food spending (vs. +6.6% prior), both up from +1.1% and +3.7% growth, respectively, in 2025. We raise our energy goods and services spending expectation to reflect higher energy futures, while we slightly temper our food inflation expectation due to lower than expected Feb data. This, coupled with our lower DPI growth assumption, translates into +3.7% discretionary cash inflow growth in 2026 (vs. +4.2% prior), representing a marginal sequential decline compared to +4.0% growth in 2025.
By income quintile, higher gasoline prices will disproportionately burden the bottom-income quintile, who spend roughly four times as much on gasoline as a share of after-tax income compared to the top quintile. We expect the bottom-income quintile to lag the aggregate US household with +4.2% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +4.7% aggregate) as our economists continue to expect tepid job growth. Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits, and now greater exposure to the increase in gasoline prices are cost headwinds to this income cohort. Our pre-savings DCF expectations for the bottom quintile remain unchanged at +0.8% for 2026, well below the +3.7% aggregate growth rate. Overall, pre-savings DCF expectations for 2026 have moved lower by 30-40bps across all other quintiles due to the lower expected DPI growth.
Our adjusted discretionary cash flow growth takes consumers estimated savings rate into account. Consistent with historical patterns where consumers dissave to cover higher energy costs, we now expect the savings rate to be lower than previously estimated in 2026, now at 4.3% of DPI (vs. 4.5% prior), below 2025 savings levels of 4.6% of DPI. Ultimately, a nearly 40bps lower discretionary cash inflow for 2026 relative to our prior forecast is balanced by a lower savings rate to drive adjusted DCF growth (a proxy for PCE growth) of +4.2% in 2026 (unchanged), though still below the +5.1% growth seen in 2025.
Exhibit 2:
Exhibit 3:
Exhibit 4:
Exhibit 5/6:
Exhibit 7:
Exhibit 8:
Exhibit 9:
Exhibit 10:
“Given the continued volatility in oil prices, we present a hypothetical sensitivity analysis to estimate the impact on adj. discretionary cash flow for every 10%, 15%, and 20% increase in energy goods and services spending relative to our current modeled assumptions. Additionally, we believe higher energy prices would impact consumer spending power, and we see an over ~50bps headwind for consumer discretionary spending power for US households in aggregate in 2026, and ~135bps headwind for the bottom-quintile, assuming ~$100/bbl pricing holds,” the analysts said.
Exhibit 12:
Exhibit 13:
Exhibit 14:
What could change Goldman’s consumer outlook is a U.S.-Iran peace deal. But the UAE’s exit from OPEC adds another downside risk for crude: the cartel’s ability to defend prices is weakened just as any ceasefire and normalization of Hormuz traffic could send Brent and WTI prices cratering.
Professional subscribers can read Goldman’s full “State of the US Consumer” note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2026 – 06:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/goldmans-state-us-consumer-outlook-gets-more-grim
Goldman’s State Of U.S. Consumer Outlook Gets More Grim
Goldman’s State Of U.S. Consumer Outlook Gets More Grim
Goldman consumer analysts Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog cut their 2026 discretionary cash-inflow growth forecast for the second time this year, citing a worsening squeeze on U.S. households as slower disposable income growth collides with higher fuel prices at the pump. The revision points to a softening among cash-strapped consumers as the US-Iran conflict enters its third month.
McShane and Herzog cut their 2026 U.S. discretionary cash inflow growth to 3.7% from the previous forecast of 4.2% in early April, as slower disposable income growth and the national average gasoline price over $4 per gallon squeeze household spending power.
Their revision reflects a lower forecast for disposable personal income growth of 4.7%, down from 5.0%, as tax cut benefits from President Trump’s OBBBA are now seen largely offsetting higher capital gains tax payments, leaving the overall tax bill roughly unchanged from last year.
The largest drag on consumers is energy, as Goldman analysts at the start of the week raised their fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, citing ongoing disruptions in Persian Gulf production, a delayed normalization of Gulf exports to late June, and a slower recovery timeline for output.
“Accordingly, we now expect energy spending to grow by 14.4% in 2026 (vs. 12.3% prior) to reflect higher energy futures,” the analysts said.
They warned that $100 Brent will create a 50-basis-point headwind to aggregate U.S. discretionary spending power in 2026, with working-poor households taking the brunt of the hit, at about 135 bps.
Here’s their current view on the consumer for 2026:
Our economists expect a total tax benefit of around $75-90bn from the OBBBA but roughly unchanged tax bill y/y, resulting in a limited tailwind for consumer spending. Based on our economists’ forecasts, we now expect +4.7% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +5.0% when we last updated in early April), following +4.4% DPI growth in 2025, which is ahead of historical levels (i.e., 2009-2019 average annual growth of 4.0%).
We expect this to translate into a lower net household cash inflow of +4.2% in 2026 (vs. 4.6% prior from our early April analysis), representing a slight improvement over the +4.1% growth in 2025. Elevated interest rates were a meaningful burden on the US consumer over the past few years and our economists continue expect two 25bps rate cuts in 2026. Accordingly, we model 7.8% growth in mortgage equity withdrawals (MEW) and 7.7% growth in borrowings for 2026. We continue to anticipate modest relief from a slightly more favorable interest rate environment; our forecast for financial obligations remains unchanged at +14.3% of DPI in 2026, compared to +14.5% in 2025.
We model essential expenditures to grow by +7.4% in 2026 (unchanged), well above the +4.3% growth seen in 2025. This is predicated on +14.4% growth in spending on energy goods and services (vs. +12.3% prior) and +5.3% growth in food spending (vs. +6.6% prior), both up from +1.1% and +3.7% growth, respectively, in 2025. We raise our energy goods and services spending expectation to reflect higher energy futures, while we slightly temper our food inflation expectation due to lower than expected Feb data. This, coupled with our lower DPI growth assumption, translates into +3.7% discretionary cash inflow growth in 2026 (vs. +4.2% prior), representing a marginal sequential decline compared to +4.0% growth in 2025.
By income quintile, higher gasoline prices will disproportionately burden the bottom-income quintile, who spend roughly four times as much on gasoline as a share of after-tax income compared to the top quintile. We expect the bottom-income quintile to lag the aggregate US household with +4.2% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +4.7% aggregate) as our economists continue to expect tepid job growth. Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits, and now greater exposure to the increase in gasoline prices are cost headwinds to this income cohort. Our pre-savings DCF expectations for the bottom quintile remain unchanged at +0.8% for 2026, well below the +3.7% aggregate growth rate. Overall, pre-savings DCF expectations for 2026 have moved lower by 30-40bps across all other quintiles due to the lower expected DPI growth.
Our adjusted discretionary cash flow growth takes consumers estimated savings rate into account. Consistent with historical patterns where consumers dissave to cover higher energy costs, we now expect the savings rate to be lower than previously estimated in 2026, now at 4.3% of DPI (vs. 4.5% prior), below 2025 savings levels of 4.6% of DPI. Ultimately, a nearly 40bps lower discretionary cash inflow for 2026 relative to our prior forecast is balanced by a lower savings rate to drive adjusted DCF growth (a proxy for PCE growth) of +4.2% in 2026 (unchanged), though still below the +5.1% growth seen in 2025.
Exhibit 2:
Exhibit 3:
Exhibit 4:
Exhibit 5/6:
Exhibit 7:
Exhibit 8:
Exhibit 9:
Exhibit 10:
“Given the continued volatility in oil prices, we present a hypothetical sensitivity analysis to estimate the impact on adj. discretionary cash flow for every 10%, 15%, and 20% increase in energy goods and services spending relative to our current modeled assumptions. Additionally, we believe higher energy prices would impact consumer spending power, and we see an over ~50bps headwind for consumer discretionary spending power for US households in aggregate in 2026, and ~135bps headwind for the bottom-quintile, assuming ~$100/bbl pricing holds,” the analysts said.
Exhibit 12:
Exhibit 13:
Exhibit 14:
What could change Goldman’s consumer outlook is a U.S.-Iran peace deal. But the UAE’s exit from OPEC adds another downside risk for crude: the cartel’s ability to defend prices is weakened just as any ceasefire and normalization of Hormuz traffic could send Brent and WTI prices cratering.
Professional subscribers can read Goldman’s full “State of the US Consumer” note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2026 – 06:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/goldmans-state-us-consumer-outlook-gets-more-grim
Germany Scrambles For Polish Oil Route As Russia Halts Druzhba Flows
Germany Scrambles For Polish Oil Route As Russia Halts Druzhba Flows
Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com
Germany is hunting for solutions to reroute crude oil supplies to the PCK Schwedt refinery after Russia said it would halt Kazakh oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1, with roughly 43,000 barrels per day (bpd) now at risk.
Berlin is now in talks with Poland over moving replacement barrels through the port of Gdansk, with potential deliveries flowing onward to Schwedt, the refinery that supplies much of eastern Germany, including Berlin, with fuels. The plant has become a recurring pressure point since Germany moved away from Russian crude, and this latest disruption exposes how little slack remains in the system.
Kazakhstan shipped 2.146 million metric tons to Germany through Druzhba last year, up 44% from 2024, with another 730,000 tons delivered in the first quarter.
Poland says it has the technical capacity to handle additional flows, but port access, shipping schedules, crude availability and refinery configurations all matter, too. Replacing pipeline crude with seaborne barrels is rarely a one-for-one swap.
The episode also revives an old vulnerability in European oil security in that the infrastructure can be diversified on paper and still remain concentrated in practice, with Druzbha still running through Russia.
Alternatives do exist for Schwedt, but they are costlier and more complicated. The refinery has increasingly leaned on crude arriving through Baltic routes and Germany’s Rostock port, but those channels are limited.
There is a bigger signal here for the oil market. What looks like a regional supply disruption adds to a broader premium around logistics security, not just crude supply. In Europe, barrels are one question. Moving them is another.
And that distinction matters increasingly for pricing, refinery margins, and the value of secure non-Russian supply routes.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2026 – 06:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germany-scrambles-polish-oil-route-russia-halts-druzhba-flows
Germany Scrambles For Polish Oil Route As Russia Halts Druzhba Flows
Germany Scrambles For Polish Oil Route As Russia Halts Druzhba Flows
Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com
Germany is hunting for solutions to reroute crude oil supplies to the PCK Schwedt refinery after Russia said it would halt Kazakh oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1, with roughly 43,000 barrels per day (bpd) now at risk.
Berlin is now in talks with Poland over moving replacement barrels through the port of Gdansk, with potential deliveries flowing onward to Schwedt, the refinery that supplies much of eastern Germany, including Berlin, with fuels. The plant has become a recurring pressure point since Germany moved away from Russian crude, and this latest disruption exposes how little slack remains in the system.
Kazakhstan shipped 2.146 million metric tons to Germany through Druzhba last year, up 44% from 2024, with another 730,000 tons delivered in the first quarter.
Poland says it has the technical capacity to handle additional flows, but port access, shipping schedules, crude availability and refinery configurations all matter, too. Replacing pipeline crude with seaborne barrels is rarely a one-for-one swap.
The episode also revives an old vulnerability in European oil security in that the infrastructure can be diversified on paper and still remain concentrated in practice, with Druzbha still running through Russia.
Alternatives do exist for Schwedt, but they are costlier and more complicated. The refinery has increasingly leaned on crude arriving through Baltic routes and Germany’s Rostock port, but those channels are limited.
There is a bigger signal here for the oil market. What looks like a regional supply disruption adds to a broader premium around logistics security, not just crude supply. In Europe, barrels are one question. Moving them is another.
And that distinction matters increasingly for pricing, refinery margins, and the value of secure non-Russian supply routes.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2026 – 06:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germany-scrambles-polish-oil-route-russia-halts-druzhba-flows
Germany Scrambles For Polish Oil Route As Russia Halts Druzhba Flows
Germany Scrambles For Polish Oil Route As Russia Halts Druzhba Flows
Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com
Germany is hunting for solutions to reroute crude oil supplies to the PCK Schwedt refinery after Russia said it would halt Kazakh oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1, with roughly 43,000 barrels per day (bpd) now at risk.
Berlin is now in talks with Poland over moving replacement barrels through the port of Gdansk, with potential deliveries flowing onward to Schwedt, the refinery that supplies much of eastern Germany, including Berlin, with fuels. The plant has become a recurring pressure point since Germany moved away from Russian crude, and this latest disruption exposes how little slack remains in the system.
Kazakhstan shipped 2.146 million metric tons to Germany through Druzhba last year, up 44% from 2024, with another 730,000 tons delivered in the first quarter.
Poland says it has the technical capacity to handle additional flows, but port access, shipping schedules, crude availability and refinery configurations all matter, too. Replacing pipeline crude with seaborne barrels is rarely a one-for-one swap.
The episode also revives an old vulnerability in European oil security in that the infrastructure can be diversified on paper and still remain concentrated in practice, with Druzbha still running through Russia.
Alternatives do exist for Schwedt, but they are costlier and more complicated. The refinery has increasingly leaned on crude arriving through Baltic routes and Germany’s Rostock port, but those channels are limited.
There is a bigger signal here for the oil market. What looks like a regional supply disruption adds to a broader premium around logistics security, not just crude supply. In Europe, barrels are one question. Moving them is another.
And that distinction matters increasingly for pricing, refinery margins, and the value of secure non-Russian supply routes.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2026 – 06:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germany-scrambles-polish-oil-route-russia-halts-druzhba-flows
Most Americans Expect Prolonged Conflict With Iran
Most Americans Expect Prolonged Conflict With Iran
Most U.S. adults oppose the war with Iran and say the U.S. should make a deal to end the war as fast as possible. In a recent survey of 1,700 adults, conducted by the Economist and YouGov between April 17 and 20, only 12 percent said they thought that such a deal would be reached in the next two weeks.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, roughly half (48 percent) of respondents thought that it was either very or somewhat unlikely that the U.S. would manage to strike a deal with Iran to end the war in the two-week timeframe. A further 41 percent said that there was a 50-50 chance of such an outcome.
You will find more infographics at Statista
This pattern held true for both Democrats and Republicans, albeit with a higher share of Democrats saying it was unlikely (61 percent compared to 31 percent of Republicans) that a deal would be reached to end the war in Iran. Where 31 percent of Democrats were unsure, saying that there was a 50-50 chance, 49 percent of Republicans took this view.
Seven in ten Americans said the U.S. should make a deal to end the war as quickly as possible, while two in ten said they were not sure and one in ten opposed the idea. However, when asked about the conditions for ending the war, Americans were more divided: 35 percent said the U.S. should make a deal even if Iran does not give up its enriched uranium, as 34 percent said it should not.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2026 – 05:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/most-americans-expect-prolonged-conflict-iran
