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IMF Warns US Treasury Market Prone To “Sudden Repricing” Due To Soaring Debt, Overreliance On Bills

IMF Warns US Treasury Market Prone To “Sudden Repricing” Due To Soaring Debt, Overreliance On Bills

The International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday that the relentless US debt issuance is undermining the premium Treasuries have commanded from investors, with implications for government securities across the globe.

The increase in the US Treasury security supply is compressing the safety premium that US Treasuries have traditionally commanded — an erosion that pushes up borrowing costs globally,” the Washington-based IMF said in its latest Fiscal Monitor report.

The US has been selling large volumes of debt because its budget deficit has averaged roughly 6% of gross domestic product over the past three years, an unprecedented shortfall outside of wartime or recession eras. The gap is expected to stay around those levels throughout the coming decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. In reality, it will only get wider. 

As Bloomberg reports, the IMF pointed to a narrowing gap between the yields of AAA rated corporate bonds and Treasuries as a sign of reduced appeal for US government securities. While spreads have typically been viewed as a gauge of the risk investors estimate for corporate borrowers, the fund is flipping that analysis on its head to view it as a metric of how much extra buyers are willing to pay for Treasuries.

“A narrowing spread implies that the premium investors pay for the safety and liquidity of Treasuries (relative to high-grade corporate debt) is compressing,” the IMF said. The fund showed that AAA corporate spreads have shrunk to roughly 35 basis points from more than 55 basis points at the start of 2019.

Besides funding runaway US debt, another danger flagged by the IMF was the increasing reliance of the US Treasury on sales of short-dated debt, a process launched by Janet Yellen and her Activist Treasury Issuance, and maintained ever since. Having initially criticized the Bill buildout, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last year said that it didn’t make sense to expand issuance of longer-dated securities, given that their yield levels were above those of T-Bills, which mature in under a year.

“When debt is concentrated at shorter maturities, governments must refinance more frequently, increasing their exposure to abrupt shifts in market conditions or investor sentiment,” the fund said, noting that the US – along with all other “developed” governments – has shifted reliance toward sales of bills.

Wednesday’s warnings come three weeks before Bessent’s Treasury sets out its latest plan for US debt issuance, known as the quarterly refunding policy statement.

Finally, the IMF also flagged the increasing role that hedge funds are playing in the Treasuries market, via so-called cash-futures basis trades, as a risk.

The liquidity that hedge funds supply through such trades can be prone to flight, as it is backed by more-leveraged investors: a spike in volatility or financing costs can trigger forced unwinding, amplifying price dislocations,” it said.

Multiple elements – historically high borrowing needs, the composition of demand for Treasuries tilting toward hedge funds and the increasing reliance on shorter-dated securities – are contributing to increased vulnerability of the market to a “sudden repricing,” according to the IMF. These dynamics can also become self-reinforcing, the fund said.

“If investors grow concerned about a country’s rollover capacity, they may demand higher yields or step back from auctions of sovereign bonds altogether, validating the initial concern,” the IMF said, effectively explaining what happens when a Ponzi scheme stops working.

“The resulting political pressure to address rising costs of servicing debt may itself become a source of uncertainty that markets price in.”

Meantime, the Iran war will stoke new fiscal pressures, forcing governments to choose between cushioning their economies from rising energy costs or keeping a lid on borrowing, the IMF also said.

“The Middle East has added a new source of fiscal pressure to an already strained global landscape,” it said. “In a scenario of prolonged conflict, global debt-at-risk could increase by an additional 4 percentage points,” the IMF said, using a term that refers to the danger of repayment difficulties in an adverse scenario.

As finance ministers and central bankers from around the world gather in the US capital this week for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, the fund chided most major economies on their fiscal policies, starting with the US which has “no debt consolidation plan in sight” – the IMF certainly is correct there – while China’s persistent large deficits are continuing to add to its borrowing load, which is also accurate, but fails to discuss China’s relentless dumping of products which are collapsing its core export markets as their manufacturing sectors implode as they can’t complete with Chinese state subsidies. Several European Union member nations have triggered escape clauses from the union’s rules on deficits in order to fund defense spending, the IMF noted.

But the US has a special role, given how reverberations in the Treasuries market spread across the world, the IMF said.

“The transmission is global: supply-driven increases in US yields spill over almost one-for-one to foreign bond markets, disproportionately affecting countries reliant on external financing,” the IMF said.

The full IMF Fiscal Monitor report can be found here.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/15/2026 – 17:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/imf-warns-us-treasury-market-prone-sudden-repricing-due-soaring-supply-overreliance-bills 

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Treasury Secretary Says Order On Citizenship Proof For Banking Is ‘In Process’

Treasury Secretary Says Order On Citizenship Proof For Banking Is ‘In Process’

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday confirmed that an executive order mandating banks to collect citizenship information on customers is underway.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addresses journalists in Paris on March 16, 2026. Ludovic Marin / AFP via Getty Images

“It’s in process. And I don’t think it’s unreasonable, because, why don’t we have information on who’s in our banking system?” he told Semafor in an April 13 interview, responding to whether the Trump administration was working on the banking order.

I have a place in the UK; they want to know who lives in every apartment—and how do we know that it’s not part of a foreign terrorist organization?” he added.

At least one Republican lawmaker has asked the Trump administration to implement such an order, and The Wall Street Journal reported, citing anonymous sources, that banks could be tasked with requiring people to submit passports under the policy.

In a post issued on X in October 2025, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) included a letter he sent to Bessent urging the secretary to carry out a “comprehensive review of current rules that allow illegal aliens to obtain financial services and access to the U.S. banking system.”

“Access to the American banking system is a privilege that should be reserved for those who respect our laws and sovereignty,” Cotton wrote in the letter. “When individuals are allowed to open accounts without verifying legal status, we are permitting illegal aliens to establish financial roots and integrate economically, all while bypassing the legal channels that millions use properly.”

Cotton asked whether the administration could implement the order under the USA PATRIOT Act, a Bush administration-era law enacted in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, or the Bank Secrecy Act, a 1970 anti-money laundering law.

The Trump administration has prioritized cracking down on illegal immigration as well as entitlement fraud. Since he took office in January 2025, President Donald Trump has issued multiple executive orders and memoranda to boost the deportation of illegal immigrants and end temporary deportation protection programs for certain countries.

Trump has also called on Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, which has stalled in the Senate, to require photo IDs for voting and proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote.

In a post last month, the president said that there would be no deal to end the partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) unless some Democrats join Republicans to pass the measure.

The bill must include “their approval of Voter I.D., (with picture!), Citizenship to Vote, No Mail-In Voting (with exceptions), All Paper Ballots, No Men In Women’s Sports, and No Transgender MUTILIZATION of our precious children,” he wrote in a Truth Social post on March 22. He also called on congressional lawmakers to stay in Washington during the Easter recess, although the lawmakers ultimately went on their break.

Last month, the Trump administration established an anti-fraud task force that would investigate instances of illegal immigrants engaging in benefits fraud as well as other forms of waste and abuse.

The Epoch Times contacted the White House for comment on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/15/2026 – 17:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/treasury-secretary-says-order-citizenship-proof-banking-process 

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Mullin Blasts Biden Admin After DHS Employee Killed By Naturalized Felon

Mullin Blasts Biden Admin After DHS Employee Killed By Naturalized Felon

On Monday, Lauren Bullis, a 40-year-old Department of Homeland Security (DHS) employee, was “brutally shot and stabbed to death” while walking her dog, and DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin is blaming the Biden administration for her murder.

Olaolukitan Adon Abel (left) and Lauren Bullis (Photos: DHS)

Bullis, an auditor with the DHS Office of Inspector General, was found on Battle Forest Drive in DeKalb County, Georgia, around 6:50 a.m. Witnesses saw a man standing over her body before he fled. She was not the only victim. According to reports, a neighbor heard the gunfire and ran out of her house to see what was happening. The neighbor told local media that it appeared Adon-Abel was attempting to sexually assault Bullis.

Before Bullis died, police discovered another woman had been shot multiple times outside a Checkers & Rally’s restaurant. She later succumbed to her injuries. Then, in Brookhaven, a homeless man was ambushed while sleeping outside a shopping center. He was shot several times and remains in critical condition.

That suspect is Olaolukitan Adon-Abel, 26, born in the United Kingdom and naturalized as a U.S. citizen in 2022 under the Biden administration. Adon-Abel was arrested on Monday and now faces two counts of murder, aggravated assault, possession of a firearm during the commission of a crime, and possession of a firearm by a convicted felon. As a convicted felon, he not only shouldn’t have had a gun, but according to federal law, he should not have been a citizen either.

Adon-Abel had convictions for sexual battery, battery against a police officer, obstruction, assault with a deadly weapon, and vandalism — a trail of violence spanning years. And yet, in 2022, the Biden administration’s U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services granted him full citizenship. The legal standard for naturalization, as outlined in 8 U.S.C. § 1427, requires applicants to demonstrate “good moral character.” Someone who has assaulted a police officer and committed sexual battery should not clear that bar. 

“Yesterday, a DHS employee, Lauren Bullis, was brutally shot and stabbed to death by Olaolukitan Adon Abel, a 26-year-old born in the United Kingdom, who was naturalized by the Biden Administration in 2022,” DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin said in a statement to Fox News. “Since President Trump took office, USCIS has implemented measures to ensure individuals with criminal histories and who otherwise lack good moral character do not attain citizenship.”

Mullin continued, “He possesses a prior criminal record that includes convictions for sexual battery, battery against a police officer, obstruction, and assault with a deadly weapon, vandalism and now stands accused of murdering DHS employee Lauren Bullis by shooting and stabbing her while she walked her dog. He has also been arrested for the murder of an unidentified woman whom he reportedly shot outside a Checkers, before randomly shooting a homeless man multiple times outside a Kroger in Brookhaven.”

He added, “These acts of pure evil have devastated our Department, and my prayers are with the families of the victims.”

The Biden administration routinely dismissed concerns about immigration vetting as fearmongering. Critics who raised red flags about naturalization standards were called nativists or worse. But the standard is not political — it is statutory. Federal law bars naturalization for individuals who cannot demonstrate good moral character, and multiple violent criminal convictions are about as clear a disqualifier as exists in the code.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/15/2026 – 16:40

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/mullin-blasts-biden-admin-after-dhs-employee-killed-naturalized-felon 

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White House: ‘Era Of Amnesty Is Over’

White House: ‘Era Of Amnesty Is Over’

Authored by Catherine Salgado via PJ Media,

No more activist judges shielding criminal illegals. No more endless delays. Only results.” The Trump White House is celebrating multiple massive immigration enforcement wins that signal the era of mass migration and mass amnesty is over.

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Since Donald Trump came back into office, federal authorities have removed three million illegal aliens from the United States through ICE deportations or voluntary deportations, which is the biggest reduction in illegal migration in modern history, according to a White House press release on April 9. This is exactly what the American people voted for. This is the sort of reform we hoped to see when immigration became one of the top issues in the 2024 election.

Besides the three million deportees, border officers have not released a single illegal alien into the United States at our borders for 11 straight months. The “era of amnesty is over,” indeed.

The overwhelming majority of asylum claims have long been fraudulent, and that is one major area where the Trump administration implemented reform. The U.S. immigration authority now grants asylum in only 7% of cases, slashing the number of criminals and illegal aliens who tried to use asylum claims as a free ticket into our country. In contrast, under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the government approved over 50% of asylum claims, according to the release.

I will give just two illustrations of why this is a big deal. First, just this week, the U.S. State Department revoked the lawful permanent resident status it had granted to Hamideh Soleimani Afshar, the niece of mass-murdering Iranian jihad leader Qasem Soleimani. Afshar had obtained residency and a life of luxury in the United States by claiming asylum here. Yet she repeatedly returned to Iran and regularly spouted pro-regime propaganda, illustrating how bogus her asylum claim was. And second, back in 2024, an Ecuadoran “asylum seeker” raped a 13-year-old at knifepoint in New York. These are only two examples of how broken our asylum system was before the Trump administration took over.

The White House release also highlighted the following wins:

Deportations and removal orders are surging: In fiscal year 2025, immigration courts issued nearly 500,000 removal orders — a 57% increase over the prior year — as criminal illegals are removed faster and in far greater numbers than ever before.

The massive court backlog is being slashed: Hundreds of thousands of cases have already been cleared since Inauguration Day, with reductions accelerating every month — ending the years-long delays that let illegals remain indefinitely.

And, as noted above, the Trump administration has successfully closed our borders.

The White House press release enthusiastically concluded, “President Trump promised to end the open borders nightmare — and he is delivering on that promise with unrelenting force. The era of catch-and-release, mass releases, and activist judicial amnesty is over.”

As we celebrate the 250th year of America’s existence, there is no better time to reflect on what national sovereignty and security mean.

* * *

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/15/2026 – 16:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/white-house-era-amnesty-over 

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Russia Vows To ‘Fill China’s Energy Resource Gap’ Amid Hormuz Crisis In Lavrov-Xi Meeting

Russia Vows To ‘Fill China’s Energy Resource Gap’ Amid Hormuz Crisis In Lavrov-Xi Meeting

At a moment it remains a serious open question over just how vulnerable China is to the Hormuz Strait crisis, and now with the US-imposed US naval blockade of the vital oil transit waterway, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is in Beijing pledging energy support to China

Lavrov met with President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, during which Xi urged China and Russia to “give full play to the advantages of geographic proximity and complementarity, deepen all-round cooperation and raise the resilience of each other’s development.”

Russia remains China’s top energy supplier. “Both sides should maintain strategic focus, trust each other, support each other, develop together,” Xi continued, according to a Chinese state media readout.

via Russian Foreign Ministry

Lavrov in turn told Xi that Chinese-Russian relations play a “stabilizing role in world affairs” at a time of global “chaos and turmoil.” This has been a consistent theme on which relations and trust have been built between Beijing and Moscow going back to the start of the Ukraine war over four years ago.

Importantly, after the meeting the Russian foreign minister announced to a press conference that Moscow stands ready to increase energy supplies to China.

Russia can certainly fill the resource gap that has arisen in China and other countries interested in working with us on an equal and mutually beneficial basis,” Lavrov stated.

The two-day Lavrov visit is toward laying the groundwork for an upcoming summit between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s expected for the first half of this year, but likely after Trump’s upcoming May 14-15 summit with the Chinese leader.

The Hormuz crisis is a threat to Chinese energy given Asia’s largest power still depends heavily on global supply routes it does not fully control. While Beijing has for many years sought to diversify through pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, the reality is that those projects take years to build and remain far too limited to replace the volume of oil moving through Hormuz.

However, there’s a strong counterargument pushing back against the assumption that Trump’s Iran moves will ultimately squeeze and devastate China. Alongside Russia coming to Beijing’s side with its recently unsanctioned oil, there are also these aspects to consider:

While China is to some extent dependent on Gulf oil, so is the rest of Asia. While the United States might be insulated from some of the worst consequences of the Hormuz closure, the economies of our Asian allies are not. Asian economies are among the most dependent on Middle Eastern oil, with South Korea receiving around 70 percent and Japan receiving a whopping 95 percent of their oil from the Middle East. The Council on Foreign Relations notes that in 2024, 84 percent of the oil and 83 percent of LNG shipped through Hormuz were bound for Asia. That is not a targeted squeeze. Instead, such a move looks to be made without much heed to Asia at all, hitting the very states Washington is supposedly positioning against Beijing.

China is actually one of the best-positioned countries in Asia to handle this exact crisis because of existing stockpiles, diversified supply chains, a coal-dependent electric grid, and pipeline alternatives. While China is vulnerable, it is more insulated than most of Asia, only receiving around 20 percent of its oil from Hormuz.

There’s a certain irony in the fact that an early element of blowback from the Iran war was that Washington scrambled to remove sanctions on Russian crude oil transiting the high seas, to bat down soaring global oil prices, and yet it is this very unsanctioned oil flow which will benefit China.

And the ‘unintended consequences’ continue to trickle over. The American Conservative writes, “This damage to our Pacific allies is not theoretical. Across Asia, partner governments are already scrambling as their economies face the worst crisis in decades. Asian nations are shortening workweeks and implementing fuel controls, disrupting their economies as tension mounts. Many Asian economies have turned to Russia amid this turmoil, bolstering the economy of another supposed U.S. enemy.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/15/2026 – 15:40

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/russia-vows-fill-chinas-energy-resource-gap-amid-hormuz-crisis-lavrov-xi-meeting 

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Beige Book Confirms Uncertainty, Fuel Costs Surged On Iran War As Economy Grew At “Slight To Modest” Pace

Beige Book Confirms Uncertainty, Fuel Costs Surged On Iran War As Economy Grew At “Slight To Modest” Pace

US economic activity continued to increase at a “slight-to-modest” pace across most regions as the war with Iran generated a new wave of uncertainty and higher energy costs, the Federal Reserve said. The just released Beige Book – which featured information compiled by the New York Fed and collected through April 6, capturing the early effects of the war on the US economy – was the first one to discuss the state of the US economy after the Iran war started, and came at time when gas prices sstayed above $4/gal for two weeks after the biggest monthly jump in decades, with March fuel spending up 16% according to Bank of America card spending data.

So far, Bank of America said that discretionary spending remains resilient—but risks rise if Hormuz disruptions persist. The Fed agreed, with the Beige Book reporting that overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while two Districts reported little change (San Francisco and St Louis), and two Districts reported slight to modest declines (Boston and New York).

Price growth remained moderate overall, but energy and fuel costs rose “sharply” in all 12 Fed districts, the central bank reported in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts released Wednesday.

“The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture,” the Fed said.

Bloomberg’s NLP model that measures net sentiment by evaluating hawkishness (+ score) and dovishness (- score) pictured below. Recent reading comes in at +1.2.

Several policymakers have signaled a preference to keep borrowing costs steady for quite some time while they evaluate the economic data. Officials are expected to leave their benchmark rate unchanged when they meet on April 28-29, according to pricing in futures contracts. A growing number of officials are concerned the war could fuel inflation, and more favored language at their March gathering that would have made it clear the Fed may need to raise interest rates.

Taking a closer look at the Beige Book, the conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture.

Manufacturing activity rose slightly to moderately in most Districts. Banking sector activity was generally steady with loan demand stable to up moderately.
On balance, consumer spending increased slightly despite harsh winter weather in some regions and higher fuel prices.
Many Districts continued to report signs of consumer financial strain, increased price sensitivity, and rising demand at food banks and other social service organizations, while spending among higher-income consumers was resilient.
Housing market activity softened across several Districts as heightened uncertainty and rising mortgage rates dampened buyer demand.
Commercial real estate markets improved, with strength in industrial properties, especially data center projects. Office markets saw solid demand for Class A space but weaker demand for lower-tier properties.
Energy activity was up slightly as oil prices rose, though many producers remained cautious about increasing drilling due to uncertainty about the persistence of higher prices. Agricultural activity was mixed, and several Districts reported that rising crop prices helped offset steep price increases of fertilizer and fuel.
Business outlooks varied amid widespread uncertainty about future conditions.

In terms of Labor Markets, the Beige Book noted the following: 

On balance, employment was steady to up slightly during this reporting period, though one District noted a slight decline.
Most Districts described labor demand as stable, with low turnover, minimal layoffs, and hiring mostly for replacement.
Several Districts noted increased demand for temporary or contract workers, as firms remained cautious about committing to permanent hires.
Many Districts reported that labor availability had improved, although difficulty finding some skilled workers, especially in the skilled trades, persisted.
While most Districts indicated that AI had not yet significantly impacted overall staffing levels, some noted that AI-driven productivity improvements had enabled many firms to delay or reduce hiring. Wages generally continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace.
Some Districts noted continued wage pressures for some roles in health care and the skilled trades, though overall wage competition remained muted.

Energy prices were sharply higher 

Price growth mostly remained moderate overall, with the vast majority of Districts reporting moderate increases and others pointing to modest growth. Generally, input cost increases outpaced selling price growth, compressing margins.
Energy and fuel costs rose sharply in all Districts, attributed to the Middle East conflict, leading to higher freight and shipping costs and higher prices for plastics, fertilizers, and other petroleum-based products.
Input cost pressures beyond energy-related increases were also widespread. Several Districts reported rising prices for metals due to tariffs, such as steel, copper, and aluminum. Technology costs rose for both hardware and software. Insurance premiums and health care costs continued to climb.

Finally, here are the main highlights by Fed districts:

Boston: Economic activity declined slightly, employment and wages were flat, and prices rose at a moderate pace. Consumer spending was flat, as was activity in most sectors, but home sales slowed further. The conflict in the Middle East contributed to rising energy prices and created fresh uncertainty, though the outlook remained optimistic on balance.
New York: Economic activity continued to decline modestly amid heightened uncertainty in large part due to shifts in tariff policy and the Middle East conflict. On balance, employment held steady, and wage growth remained modest. The pace of selling price increases remained moderate, and input price increases picked up markedly. Consumer spending grew slightly. Businesses generally expected little improvement in the months ahead.
Philadelphia: Economic activity in the Third District grew slightly, down from a modest pace last period. Employment declined slightly, and wages again rose modestly. Prices continued to rise moderately, although cost pressures increased. Activity held steady for nonmanufacturers and increased moderately for manufacturers. Firms expect growth over the next six months, but uncertainty has risen further.
Cleveland: Fourth District business activity increased modestly, with similar growth expected in the months ahead. Manufacturers reported increased demand, while retailers saw modest declines amid higher fuel prices. Residential real estate rebounded after a harsh winter. Employment grew slightly, and wages increased moderately. Nonlabor costs remained robust, while selling prices grew moderately.
Richmond: The regional economy continued to grow modestly in recent weeks. Consumer spending on retail, travel, and tourism increased modestly. Nonfinancial service providers also reported modest growth in demand. Other sectors of the regional economy reported little change this cycle. Employment expanded slightly, wages picked up modestly, and price growth remained moderate.
Atlanta: Economic activity grew at a modest pace. Employment remained flat and wages rose modestly. Prices and input costs also increased modestly. Retail sales and travel continued to expand. On balance, residential and commercial real estate conditions improved. Transportation and manufacturing activity expanded. Energy activity rose, but agricultural conditions were flat.
Chicago: Economic activity in the Seventh District increased slightly over the reporting period. Manufacturing demand rose modestly; consumer spending increased slightly; construction and real estate activity, employment and business spending were flat on balance; and nonbusiness contacts saw no change in economic activity. Prices rose moderately, wages rose modestly, and financial conditions tightened modestly. Farm income expectations for 2026 declined some.
St. Louis: Economic activity has remained unchanged since our previous report. Employment levels were unchanged and wage growth was moderate. Prices have risen moderately, but several contacts expressed concern about escalating energy costs. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, yet contacts are attentive to risks to the economy associated with the conflict in the Middle East.
Minneapolis: District economic activity increased slightly. Employment increased slightly and labor demand turned positive over the past two months. Prices increased modestly overall, but input price pressures intensified as oil price spikes fed through to freight and raw materials. Contacts across industries reported significant uncertainty.
Kansas City: The Tenth District’s economy grew slightly over the reporting period, while employment levels remained flat. Manufacturing firms indicated suppliers have implemented automatic surcharges tied to logistics and energy inputs. District oil and gas activity remains steady. Overall, prices have increased modestly.
Dallas: Economic activity in the Eleventh District expanded slightly. Manufacturing output growth slowed, while activity in services was largely flat. Energy sector activity ticked up, and bank lending increased on strength in commercial real estate, while home sales were slow. Employment grew slightly, while wages and prices increased modestly to robustly. Outlooks deteriorated amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty and fuel price concerns.
San Francisco: Economic activity was stable at subdued levels over the reporting period. Employment levels were unchanged on net. Prices rose moderately, driven primarily by higher energy costs, while wages grew slightly. Retail sales grew slightly. Conditions were stable in services and manufacturing, down in agriculture, and mixed in real estate.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/15/2026 – 15:14

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-confirms-uncertainty-fuel-costs-surged-iran-war-economy-grew-slight-modest-pace 

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Tax Freedom Day Underestimates How Long You Work For The Government

Tax Freedom Day Underestimates How Long You Work For The Government

Authored by Jonathan Newman via The Mises Institute,

Tax Freedom Day, calculated by the Tax Foundation, “represents how long Americans as a whole have to work in order to pay the nation’s tax burden.”

It appears that they stopped publishing this in 2019, but others have picked up where they left off.

The idea is that the income earned by taxpayers over a certain proportion of the year goes to Uncle Sam.

In 2025, that date was April 16th.

But the burden of government is much larger than the amount we pay in taxes.

The government spends much more than it collects in taxes, diverting valuable resources away from where they would be used in the private market economy, subject to the profit and loss test of the market.

The difference is made up by new government debt.

Much of that debt is purchased by the Federal Reserve with new money, resulting in price inflation, exacerbated income inequality, booms and busts, and financial fragility.

The cost of government is much more than what we pay in taxes.

Rothbard suggested a measure of “total government depredation on the economy” that involves starting with net national product (like GDP but takes capital depreciation into account) and deducting all government spending at all levels, including transfer payments, government officials’ salaries, and the salaries of those employed by government enterprises.

Rothbard considered all government activity as a depredation.

In 2025, this total fiscal burden was $11 trillion.

Net national product was $25.7 trillion, which gives us a ratio of 42.7%.

When we turn that ratio into a date on the calendar, we get June 5.

In short, while Tax Freedom Day is mid-April, Rothbard’s measure of the government’s fiscal burden reveals that Americans don’t truly start working for themselves until June 5, over seven weeks later.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/15/2026 – 14:40

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/tax-freedom-day-underestimates-how-long-you-work-government 

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Iran War Leads To Fluoride Shortages For Some US Water Utilities

Iran War Leads To Fluoride Shortages For Some US Water Utilities

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Multiple water providers have lowered the amount of fluoride they add to water for millions of Americans, amid shortages stemming from the U.S.–Iran war.

The Baltimore City Department of Public Works said on April 13 that it is reducing the level of fluoride from 0.7 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 0.4 mg/L.

The move, officials said, was driven by disruptions to the supply chain caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. A key Israeli supplier, specifically, has been struggling to meet demand.

“This is an adjustment driven solely by supply availability,” Matthew Garbark, director of the Baltimore City Department of Public Works, said in a statement.

“We remain committed to providing safe, high-quality drinking water.”

Some 1.8 million people in and around Baltimore, the most populous city in Maryland, are served water by the city of Baltimore utility.

Fluoride, a mineral, is put in water as a preventative for tooth decay and cavities. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends adding 0.7 mg/L.

WSSC Water, which serves 1.9 million people in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties in Maryland, said earlier in April it would be adding only 0.4 mg/L because of “nationwide supply chain disruptions.”

Hydrofluorosilicic acid, an important compound for water fluoridation, has been hard to source amid the war, including from a supplier in Israel, the utility said. Israel is one of the world’s top exporters of fluorosilicic acid, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the United States is among the world’s top five importers of the product.

“This is a temporary adjustment driven solely by supply availability,” Ben Thompson, WSSC Water’s director of production, said in a statement.

“We remain committed to maintaining safe, high-quality drinking water and will restore optimal fluoride levels as soon as supply conditions stabilize.”

In Pennsylvania, the borough of Lititz told its water customers in March that it had to halt fluoridation for a couple of weeks because of supply issues.

As the conflict continues, “there will likely be additional stressors placed on the supply chain, leading to shortages in additional communities,” said Dan Hartnett, chief policy officer for the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies.

A few months’ drop in fluoride levels is probably not a cause for concern for most people, said Dr. Scott Tomar, an American Dental Association community water fluoridation expert. Lower levels can have an impact over the span of years, he said.

Tomar said younger children would be the first to experience tooth decay, because the fluoride strengthens enamel as their teeth are developing and once they have grown in.

Some states and municipalities have in recent months completely stopped water fluoridation, as officials have pointed to emerging data such as a 2024 report from the National Institutes of Health that concluded with moderate confidence that higher levels of fluoride exposure were linked to decreases in children’s IQ scores.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said that fluoride from toothpaste is sufficient to keep teeth strong.

The Environmental Protection Agency said in January that it would assess the safety of adding fluoride to water.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/15/2026 – 14:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/iran-war-leads-fluoride-shortages-some-us-water-utilities 

Posted in News

Iran Used Chinese Spy Satellite To Target US Bases During War, Outraged Beijing Denies

Iran Used Chinese Spy Satellite To Target US Bases During War, Outraged Beijing Denies

Iran quietly secured a Chinese spy satellite in late 2024 and used it to track US military bases across the Middle East during the current war, the Financial Times has newly – an allegation Beijing has flatly and angrily denied.

The TEE-01B satellite, built and launched by Chinese firm Earth Eye Co, was allegedly taken over by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Aerospace Force after launch from China, according to the report, which cites leaked Iranian military documents. Of course, the usual caveats must apply when it comes to major Western MSM reporting on an emerging ‘axis of evil’ doing all things anti-America: Russia, China, Iran (and certainly South Korea could soon be thrown in the mix given its pro-Moscow role in the Ukraine war). 

“Recently, some forces have been keen on fabricating rumors and maliciously associating them to China,” according to the official statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. In the meantime, Earth Eye Co has not commented.

Further, the Chinese embassy in Washington told the Financial Times: “We firmly oppose relevant parties spreading speculative and insinuative disinformation against China.” But we should note that this wasn’t exactly a full-on denial of the charge, and the embassy would likely not have a full picture of what the highest echelons of Chinese intelligence is up to at any given moment in Beijing.

Per the FT report, Iranian commanders tasked the satellite with monitoring key US military sites, using time-stamped coordinate lists, satellite imagery, and orbital analysis. The Financial Times said the images were captured in March, before and after drone and missile strikes on those locations. 

As part of the arrangement, the IRGC gained access to commercial ground stations run by Emposat, a Beijing-based satellite control and data provider with a network spanning Asia, Latin America, and beyond.

One surprising development within the first month of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury was that Iran’s ballistic missiles were able to reach very precise locations all the way over in Jordan, where US bases were pummeled, amid an alarming trend where billions of dollars in regional American air defenses were quickly taken out. Of course, sensitive Israeli military and energy sites were also hit, especially in Haifa and Tel Aviv. Reuters has also picked up on the FT report Wednesday, writing:

According to the report, the satellite also monitored Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and locations close to the US Fifth Fleet naval base in Manama, Bahrain, and Erbil airport, Iraq, around the time of IRGC-claimed attacks on facilities in those areas.

US outposts in northern Iraqi Kurdistan have also been repeatedly hit by Iranian drones, or at times drones and projectiles possibly sent by local Tehran-aligned paramilitary forces.

As for more specifics cited in the original FT report, the satellite was described has having captured images of Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 13, 14, and 15.

There’s some credibility to this, given that on March 14, Trump confirmed that very expensive US surveillance aircraft at the base had been hit. “Four of the five had ⁠virtually no damage, and ​are already back in service. One ​had slightly more damage, but will be in the air shortly,” ​Trump had written at the time ​on Truth Social.

Still, Trump is trying to ‘play nice’ with Beijing – even amid such public and damning allegations – ahead of his planned mid-May visit, saying in a Wednesday Truth Social post he asked his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping not to supply weapons to Iran, and Xi replied he was not doing so. “I had heard that China’s giving weapons to, I mean – you’re seeing it all over the place – to Iran.” This was in a newly published Fox Business interview.

FT produced the following graphic as part of its report:

“And I wrote him a letter asking him not to do that, and he wrote me a letter saying that essentially he’s not doing that.” Major media outlets previously reported that US intelligence indicated China was preparing to ship advanced weaponry to Iran. Beijing’s public rejection of the “baseless smear” – as the Foreign Minister called it – has indeed been swift and vehement.

Trump has also newly explained on Truth Social that China is “very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz” – this even though in many cases it is China bound tankers being blocked and turned back by the US naval armada. “This situation will never happen again,” Trump added. He is set to meet with Xi in Beijing on May 14-15. On this he wrote that “President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are going working together smartly, and very well!” But then Trump says “But remember, we are very good at fighting, if we have to.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/15/2026 – 13:25

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-used-chinese-spy-satellite-target-us-bases-during-war-outraged-beijing-denies 

Posted in News

Watch: Vance Pledges Probe Into Epstein ‘Pizza’ And ‘Grape Soda’ References

Watch: Vance Pledges Probe Into Epstein ‘Pizza’ And ‘Grape Soda’ References

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Vice President JD Vance has publicly committed to investigating references in the Jeffrey Epstein files that he says evoked the Pizzagate conspiracy theory, citing emails mentioning “pizzas or grape sodas” in odd contexts.

His remarks come as Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche doubled down on the Department of Justice’s position that every relevant document has already been released, leaving critics to question whether the full truth about Epstein’s network will ever see daylight.

In remarks at a Turning Point USA event, Vance described reviewing the files and encountering an email that stood out.

JD Vance says he is in the process of opening an investigation into the “Pizzagate conspiracy theory” after he read strange words involving pizza and grape soda in the Epstein files.

Vance has now publicly pledged to follow up on this matter.

“I remember it sounding like the… pic.twitter.com/eu122DyAhw

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 14, 2026

“One person sent an e-mail to Jeffrey Epstein saying oh they were some really nice like pizzas or grape sodas or something like that,” he recalled. “And I remember it sounding like the Pizzagate conspiracy theory.”

His reaction was direct: “We should absolutely investigate.”

Vance added that he plans to follow up “to see whether we’ve investigated that person because we should. We absolutely should when you see evidence of sexual assault sexual misconduct regardless of who the powerful not fact.”

The comments have reignited scrutiny over language in the Epstein files that some have long argued resembles coded references first highlighted in 2016. Those earlier claims, known as Pizzagate, originated from WikiLeaks releases of John Podesta’s emails that contained repeated, seemingly out-of-context mentions of pizza alongside other odd terms.

Recent Epstein document dumps have revived the debate, with analysts pointing to hundreds of “pizza” references that do not appear to describe food.

New Jeffery Epstein documents have emails consistently use one very familiar word

The word Pizza

The emails they write when referring to pizza don’t make any sense if they were talking about the food….

Pizzagate was 100% real. Where are the arrests pic.twitter.com/KqkmsHk4c6

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) February 6, 2026

Mike Benz, in analysis of the newer files, noted: “In these new files, you’ll see a lot of people talking about PIZZA in a way that (seems like a code), it’s kind of impossible.”

Mike Benz:

In these new files, you’ll see a lot of people talking about PIZZA in a way that (seems like a code), it’s kind of impossible.

Drop a ? if you’ve been vindicated

Cliphttps://t.co/M6YlH9oRMY
Full Interviewhttps://t.co/03XLFBWHQm pic.twitter.com/tSXCvFBOa5

— MJTruthUltra (@MJTruthUltra) February 5, 2026

A separate development underscores the tension. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche appeared on Fox News and doubled down on declaring the Epstein files exhausted.

“We have released everything. We reviewed six million pieces of paper!” Blanche stated, adding “We are not sitting on a single piece of paper to be released.”

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche tells Americans he will cover up the child trafficking network of Jeffrey Epstein by not releasing the rest of the Epstein files.

He says people should trust him when he says there is not a single document that the government has that should… pic.twitter.com/Hi52DfzKxM

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 14, 2026

He insisted that if anything new surfaces it would be made public, but emphasized the DOJ’s review covered millions of pages unrelated to Epstein and that Congress could access unredacted materials if lawmakers chose to examine them.

ernity.news/wp-includes/js/wp-embed.min.js

The Pizzagate theory first gained traction in late 2016 after WikiLeaks published thousands of emails from Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta. Researchers flagged phrases like “pizza” and “hot dogs” appearing in contexts that seemed unrelated to meals—patterns that echoed an FBI intelligence bulletin on pedophile code words, where “pizza” was listed as slang for girl and “hot dog” for boy. Comet Ping Pong, a Washington, D.C. pizzeria, became the focal point after its owner’s Instagram posts and the restaurant’s alleged basement (which does not exist) fueled speculation of a child-sex ring operating out of the basement.

While mainstream outlets quickly labeled the theory a hoax, the Epstein files have now surfaced hundreds of similar “pizza” mentions. Multiple reports note exchanges involving Epstein’s urologist, Dr. Harry Fisch, that pair “pizza and grape soda” with references to erectile-dysfunction medication in ways that read as cryptic to outsiders. One 2018 message reads: “lets go for pizza and grape soda again. No one else can understand. Go kno.” Another simply states “Pizza and grape soda[.] Nough said.”

Debunkers argue these are innocent food references or jokes, yet many counter that the volume and context—especially when layered atop Epstein’s documented trafficking network—demand investigation rather than dismissal.

This latest flare-up fits a pattern of incremental disclosures followed by official assurances that the matter is closed. Vance’s willingness to revisit the “Pizzagate” framing, however tentatively, marks a rare high-level acknowledgment that some of the file language warrants a second look.

The Epstein saga has repeatedly exposed fractures between what officials claim has been fully disclosed and what the public believes remains concealed. Whether Vance’s pledged follow-up produces meaningful accountability—or joins the growing list of unfulfilled promises—will test whether transparency on elite networks is still possible. For now, the strange language in the files keeps the questions alive, and the public’s demand for answers shows no sign of fading.

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/15/2026 – 12:50

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-vance-pledges-probe-epstein-pizza-and-grape-soda-references