Authored by Joseph Lord, Jeff Louderback, Troy Myers, and Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

Voters on Tuesday headed to the polls in states across the country for some of the most-anticipated battles of the 2026 midterm election season.

May 19 marks the largest day of primary elections yet, seeing ballots cast across six states: Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

The night continued past trends showing that President Donald Trump retains a dominant influence over the Republican Party, as his chosen candidates sailed to victory in race after race—with one Republican incumbent in a major race being defeated.

Democrats, meanwhile, locked in their picks for several key congressional races, as the party works to reclaim the House and possibly the Senate.

Here are the biggest takeaways from the night.

Massie Unseated

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) lost his Republican primary to former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, concluding one of the most-watched (and most expensive) primary battles of the 2026 election cycle.

President Donald Trump had endorsed Gallrein as part of his effort to get Massie removed from Congress.

Trump was openly critical of Massie and urged people in Kentucky’s Fourth Congressional District to elect Gallrein.

Gallrein had tallied 54 percent of the votes compared to 45 percent for Massie when The Associated Press called the race at 7:54 p.m. ET.

Massie’s ousting is seen as underscoring Republican voters’ support for Trump.

The Kentucky lawmaker, who’s been at odds with Trump over several issues, joins Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and several Indiana state senators who were defeated by primary challengers backed by Trump in recent weeks.

Gallrein, in his victory speech, vowed to work closely with the president in Congress.

“We have a saying on the family farm that it’s a contact sport,” Gallrein said at an election night event in Covington, Kentucky. “I can tell you that campaigning is one as well, folks.”

Kentucky, Alabama Open Senate Primaries

In Kentucky and Alabama, voters went to the polls to cast ballots in open Senate primaries for seats being vacated by their incumbents.

Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) will face former Democratic state Rep. Charles Booker in the race to replace outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in the U.S. Senate.

The Associated Press called the Republican primary race for Barr at 7 p.m. ET, an hour after polls closed. Barr won with 60.5 percent of the vote to 30.8 percent for the next closest rival, former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

On the Democratic side, Booker—who previously served as Democrat’s nominee for the post in 2022—won with 46.8 percent of the vote. His closest rival, 2020 Democratic nominee Amy McGrath, trails with 35.8 percent of the vote. The race was called at 9:41 p.m. ET.

The primary marks the first time in 16 years that the state has seen a fully open race for a Kentucky Senate seat. The last such primary took place in 2010, when Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) won his first election to Congress.

McConnell, 84, was first elected to his seat in 1984. He had served as the leader of the Republican Senate conference since January 2007 before agreeing to step down at the start of the current Congress.

Meanwhile, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.), Trump’s pick to replace outgoing Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), will advance to a runoff, as he fell short of the 50 percent needed to forgo the second election.

The Republican he’ll face is still being determined as votes are counted.

Trump has called Moore “a true America First Patriot who’s been with me from the very beginning.”

Georgia Republican Races Go to Runoff

Voters in the Peach State sent Republican candidates in Georgia’s gubernatorial and Senate elections to a runoff.

Trump-endorsed Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and billionaire businessman Rick Jackson will go to a runoff in Georgia’s gubernatorial primary contest.

Jones and Jackson received 37 percent and 34 percent of the vote, respectively, when the Associated Press called the runoff at 8:50 p.m. ET, as neither managed to garner more than 50 percent of the vote in what became a costly contest for the GOP field.

Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger came in third with 14 percent of the vote.

Another competitive Georgia Republican contest is also on its way to a second round.

As of 9:50 p.m. ET on May 19, none of the major candidates in the state’s Senate GOP primary—Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), Rep. Earl “Buddy” Carter (R-Ga.), and former football coach Derek Dooley—had claimed more than 50 percent of the vote in the Senate primary.

At 9:44 p.m. ET, the Associated Press declared that Collins will advance to the runoff. It later declared that Dooley will face him in that race.

As of 11:52 p.m., Collins had received 40.5 percent of the vote. Dooley followed with 30.1 percent, while Carter trailed in third with 25.2 percent.

The runoff was expected ahead of Election Day, as polling generally did not show any candidate with a majority.

Bernadette Breslin, the national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), told The Epoch Times in an exclusive statement that “Republicans are united behind defeating Ossoff and retiring his record of failure for Georgia.”

Trump has not given an endorsement in the Senate race.

The runoff elections are set for June 16.

Pennsylvania Democrats Make Picks in Key Swing Districts

While observers’ focus was largely centered on Republican races during this round of voting, Democratic candidates were also locked in for several key swing districts during the May 19 elections.

It’s unclear whether Democrats can overcome Republicans’ steep 53-seat majority in the U.S. Senate, and the party is instead focusing its major efforts this cycle on the House, where Democrats are widely expected to reclaim the majority by observers.

In Pennsylvania, three Democratic candidates endorsed by Gov. Josh Shapiro won their elections, including Janelle Stelson, Bob Harvie, and Bob Brooks.

The three candidates will take on Republican opponents in the November general election, in seats that include some of the party’s top targets.

Stelson will go up against Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Harvie against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), and Brooks against Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.).

Shapiro himself is seeking reelection this year, running for the gubernatorial nomination unopposed. Shapiro’s approach to politics has been viewed as moderate by voters in the state, propelling him to a sweeping double-digit victory in his 2022 election, giving his endorsement some weight in state politics.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, has summed up where things stand: “Since the ceasefire came into effect, both Washington and Tehran appear to be operating under the illusion that time is on their side,” he said. “Each seems to believe that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz impose greater costs on the other, while offering a breathing space to regroup for a possible resumption of hostilities,” Vaez told Al Jazeera.

On Wednesday Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a fresh warning amid this ongoing standoff, warning that the Middle East war will extend beyond the region if the United States and Israel resume their attacks.

via Shutterstock

“If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will this time spread far beyond the region, and our devastating blows will crush you,” the IRGC say in the statement published to their website Sepah News.

The warring sides are no closer to getting back to the negotiating table, after President Trump has given just a few ‘days’ to comply on the nuclear issue, which so far Tehran has not budged on.

But in the meantime Iran still sees American guarantees as “insufficient” regarding a renewed war, Al Arabiya reports Wednesday. The Supreme Leader, who is still in hiding and believed to be recovering from serious injuries that resulted from prior airstrikes, has issued a fresh written message to the public:

Mojtaba Khamenei has commemorated the second anniversary of the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, saying the country is putting up a “unique historical resistance against two global terrorist armies” in Israel and the US, the Fars News Agency reports. 

In another written statement, Khamenei said the war was making the burden on officials “heavier than before”, adding that he was grateful for the “unity of the nation”.

In the Strait of Hormuz, there’s been a continued trickle of tankers making it through, reportedly after Beijing asked:

Two Chinese tankers laden with oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, shipping data showed, brightening hopes that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may soon be ​resolved after positive comments from the US president and his deputy.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the war would be over “very quickly” while Vice President JD Vance talked up progress in talks with Tehran about an agreement to end hostilities.

🚨 Two Chinese VLCCs carrying 4 mb of Iraqi oil have crossed the Strait of Hormuz and are now heading straight for the US blockade. If they’re allowed to pass, it means Trump and Xi have quietly agreed to let it happen.

Meanwhile, 4 LNG carriers are on their way to China to… pic.twitter.com/FA2KFEniuZ

— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) May 20, 2026

And reports of a South Korean tanker safely traversing at this point:

A South Korean oil tanker is currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s top diplomat said on Wednesday, in a report from AFP.

“At this very moment, our oil tanker is passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told lawmakers at the National Assembly in Seoul.

Ship-tracking site MarineTraffic showed the South Korea-flagged tanker Universal Winner on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz near the entrance to the Gulf of Oman, bound for the southeastern South Korean city of Ulsan after departing Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi port.

As a reminder of prior Trump threats this week, and the typically vague timetable, the president on Tuesday renewed warnings that he could imminently resume bombing Iran, declaring the country will face a “big hit” if it refuses to accept US demands for a deal within days.

Netanyahu and Trump held what Israel’s N12 News described as a “lengthy and dramatic” phone call overnight, amid growing speculation over a possible new strike on Iran.
Netanyahu will skip both the opening of the Knesset session and a key vote on dissolving parliament today

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) May 20, 2026

“Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time, because we can’t let them have a new nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters. Trump had the day prior said he was “holding off” on striking Iran on after requests from Gulf Arab states. Then he followed by claiming the attack was moments away from being launched. “We were all set to go… It would have been happening right now.”

*  *  *

More latest developments via Newsquawk:

US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS citing US officials.
US Senate voted 50-47 to advance war powers resolution that would end US strikes on Iran unless approved by Congress.
Iran’s IRGC said that if the attack on Iran occurs again, the war will extend beyond the region, Fars News reported.
Iranian Deputy to the President Banah said Tehran is open to negotiations within national interests, Al Mayadeen reported.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said months after the start of the war on Iran, US Congress acknowledged the loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions, and Iran’s powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as the first to strike down a touted F-35, while he added that with lessons learned and the knowledge they gained, a return to war will feature many more surprises.
Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks, Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported citing a senior diplomatic source. A diplomatic source says Iran and Pakistan held conflicting positions on negotiation channels and the venue for talks, and says mistrust was affecting coordination between Iran and Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Interior Minister Naqvi is on route to Tehran, according to Journalist Mallick.
“On the verge of a decision: Trump and Netanyahu held a phone conversation last night that was described as “lengthy and dramatic,” according to journalist Segal.
Two Chinese supertankers, carrying 4mln barrels of oil, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to tracking data. It was later reported that India was preparing to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following prior reports regarding the Chinese tankers.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has formally begun its review of the construction permit application for an advanced microreactor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. 

✅ #NRCNews: We’ve kicked off the formal review of the @UofIllinois application for an advanced microreactor. https://t.co/0gMFCuDv5u

— NRC (@NRCgov) May 19, 2026

The announcement marks the transition from the agency’s acceptance review to the substantive technical evaluation of NANO Nuclear’s KRONOS design.

This step carries more weight than the initial filing. Submitting an application demonstrates readiness on paper; the NRC’s decision to open a full review confirms the submission meets the threshold for detailed scrutiny. 

For a first-of-a-kind microreactor project, clearing that gate is a concrete regulatory advance.

We’ve tracked the Illinois project closely, including the construction permit application submission itself, described at the time as a defining moment for commercial microreactor deployment. Earlier coverage in October 2025 detailed the start of drilling and site preparation work with the university. 

We’ve also detailed other updates from the company including their recent MOU with Supermicro and progress with their high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) transportation package.

The KRONOS effort is also not occurring in isolation. Other advanced reactor programs have recorded measurable NRC milestones in recent months with TerraPower’s Natrium reactor in Wyoming receiving its construction permit and X-energy achieving a notable environmental clearance for its four-unit Xe-100 project at Dow’s Seadrift site in Texas.
 

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

The acting head of the U.S. Department of Justice said on May 19 that the agency added new terms favorable to President Donald Trump to the settlement of the president’s lawsuit over alleged IRS leaking of his tax returns.

In a one-page addendum to the settlement, Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche said on May 19 that the IRS would no longer pursue claims against Trump, members of his family, or his businesses over allegedly unpaid taxes.

The May 18 settlement, in which the president agreed to drop a $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS, provided that an almost $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund would be established to compensate alleged victims of the weaponization of law enforcement.

Trump, two of his sons, and the Trump family business, had sued in federal court in Florida in January, alleging that the IRS and its parent agency, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, had failed to prevent a former contractor from leaking Trump’s tax returns to the media.

The plaintiffs alleged the agencies failed to take mandatory precautions to prevent the former IRS contractor from unlawfully obtaining access to their confidential tax records and giving that information to The New York Times and ProPublica between 2019 and 2020.

As part of the settlement, the plaintiffs themselves will receive “a formal apology but no monetary payment or damages of any kind,” the DOJ said in a May 18 statement.

The plaintiffs agreed to drop their claims “in exchange for the creation of this fund,” and in addition they agreed to withdraw two administrative claims they filed for damages “resulting from the unlawful raid of Mar-a-Lago and the Russia-collusion hoax.”

“The machinery of government should never be weaponized against any American, and it is this Department’s intention to make right the wrongs that were previously done while ensuring this never happens again,” Blanche said in the statement.

“As part of this settlement, we are setting up a lawful process for victims of lawfare and weaponization to be heard and seek redress,” he said.

The May 19 release states that the federal government is “forever barred and precluded” from moving forward with “examinations” of Trump, “related or affiliated individuals,” and related companies and trusts. The document covers “tax returns filed before the effective date” of the settlement, which was May 18.

The settlement provides that the Anti-Weaponization Fund will be controlled by five individuals whose appointment will be announced by the attorney general within 30 days.

One of the fund’s members will be selected in consultation with congressional leadership.

The members are to serve until the fund is “concluded,” unless they resign or are removed by the president, who will be allowed to dismiss any member without providing a reason, according to the settlement.

The fund will establish its own rules for “submitting, receiving, processing, and granting or denying claims,” subject to procedures it may make public at its own discretion.

The settlement states that the fund will have the authority “to issue formal apologies, issue monetary relief owed to claimants as a result of their legal rights, grant claims in whole or in part, deny claims in whole or in part, defer review of claims, and receive and request evidence or other support for claims, including requesting information from, or consulting with, federal agencies.”

During congressional testimony on May 19, Blanche told lawmakers that those who experienced “weaponization” may receive payments. He declined to promise that the fund would refrain from making payments to Trump campaign donors or individuals involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, security breach at the U.S. Capitol.

Blanche said Trump did not set up the settlement fund and the members of the fund will act independently.

“The president did not direct me to do anything,” he said, adding that payments could go to members of any political party, and would not be limited to Jan. 6 defendants.

Critics in Congress moved swiftly to condemn the addendum. Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, argued that the settlement clause runs afoul of a statute that makes it unlawful for executive branch officials to direct the IRS to open or close an audit targeting any individual taxpayer. Under the statute, coverage extends to the president and vice president, their respective office staffs, and cabinet-level officials — though the attorney general is specifically carved out of the definition. Wyden closed his statement with a direct warning, according to CNBC, saying neither the president nor his chosen legal counsel could place his relatives beyond legal accountability.

On the House side, Ways and Means ranking member Richard Neal posted to social media labeling the addendum outright “corruption,” charging that Trump had converted the executive branch into a shield for his own finances, according to CNN.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) was critical of the fledgling fund and how it will be administered.

“What we’re talking about is nothing short of the sitting president of the United States looting from the Treasury for his own gain,” she said.

“Do you seriously think this arrangement is appropriate?” Murray added.

Defending the clause to CNBC, a department spokeswoman framed it as routine legal practice. “As is customary in settlements, both sides have executed waivers of a variety of claims that were or could have been brought,” she wrote in an email, adding that the restriction applied only to audits already open at the time of signing and would not prevent future IRS scrutiny.

Welcome to another day of corporate America hemorrhaging engineers and other white-collar workers with insurmountable student debt as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered in history as the great “white-collar purge,” and the response will be continued hatred of data centers.

We’ve been covering for weeks that today is D-Day for Meta Platforms employees, who have finally learned their employment fate at the company that owns Facebook and Instagram.

Bloomberg reports that the new round of layoffs affects roughly 8,000 roles globally, with engineering and product teams expected to be at the center of the cuts as CEO Mark Zuckerberg reduces labor in favor of GPUs.

This latest round of cuts is expected to hit Meta’s engineering and product teams in particular, and additional layoffs could come later in the year, said people familiar with the company’s plans, who asked not to be named as the information is not public. -BBG

The layoffs follow Meta’s reassignment of about 7,000 employees into newly created AI-focused teams on Monday.

The X account, Official Layoff, posted leaked audio of an all-hands emergency at Meta earlier this week, in which Zuck told employees their devices are being tracked to train AI models. In other words, those workers are training chatbots to eventually render them obsolete.

Official Layoff added more color about Monday’s meeting:

LEAKED AUDIO FROM META ALL-HANDS AHEAD OF LAYOFFS TOMORROW

Mark Zuckerberg, in his own words, told Meta employees their devices are being tracked to train AI models.

His reasoning? Meta employees are smarter than the contract workers the rest of the industry uses for data labeling. So instead of hiring outside help, Meta is turning its own workforce into training data.

“The average intelligence of the people who are at this company is significantly higher than the average set of people that you can get to do tasks if you’re working through these contractors.”

He wants the AI to learn how “really smart people use computers” by watching employees work. He says the content is “stripped out” and none of it is used for surveillance or performance tracking.

Then he admitted the rollout was botched but said Meta intentionally kept employees in the dark because leaking competitive AI strategy would help rivals.

“It is not strategically in your interest for us to communicate everything in all the detail that we normally would on this.”

Translation: We’re watching you, we told you as little as possible, and we did it on purpose.

AI is replacing the contractor. Then the employee trains the AI. Then the AI replaces the employee.

This story and this company keeps getting weirder.

LEAKED AUDIO FROM META ALL-HANDS AHEAD OF LAYOFFS TOMORROW

Mark Zuckerberg, in his own words, told Meta employees their devices are being tracked to train AI models.

His reasoning? Meta employees are smarter than the contract workers the rest of the industry uses for data… https://t.co/VSPdjHZ2ga pic.twitter.com/3TX0vLP8P3

— Official Layoff (@LayoffAI) May 19, 2026

Related coverage:

D-Day For “Huuuge” Meta Layoffs Looms As AI Job Apocalypse Accelerates

Meta Plans 20% Layoffs To Divert Capital To Data Centers

Meta To Unleash First Wave Of Mass Layoffs May 20 As It Eliminates 10% Of Its Workers

Meta Workforce … 

Goldman laid out in 2023 just how many jobs AI will take. That number is absolutely scary for white-collar America, where many are saturated with student debt.

US equity futures are higher led by tech as the selloff in bonds eased and traders awaited earnings from Nvidia after the close. As of 7:30am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% while Nasdaq futs rose 0.7% showing optimism heading into the release and overlooking weakness in tech during APAC trade. In premarket trading, NVDA is up 1.8% in premarket trading, as semis see a strong bid with Mag7 names almost all higher. Cyclicals ex-Energy are rallying led by Industrials with Defensives lagging and Staples down. European stocks have edged higher alongside a pullback in energy prices, which saw Brent briefly slip onto a $108/bbl handle. Today is all about NVDA but Fed Minutes this afternoon may provide color on the dissenters from the previous Fed Day. Bond yields in the US and Europe retreated from multiyear highs as traders pared back aggressive bets on interest-rate hikes this year. US yields are 1-3bp lower across the curve, the 10Y dropping to 4.64% from yesterday’s high of 4.69%, as the USD sees a mild bid. Brent fell 1.8% toward $109 a barrel with the broader energy complex drops as JPM flags 6.6mm bbls of oil crossing the SoH over the last 24 hours; Precious Metals are also bid with Ags seeing weakness. Tomorrow’s macro releases include Flash PMIs and jobless data.  

In premarket trading, Nvidia is outperforming fellow Magnificent Seven stocks, rising 1.8%, ahead of its much-anticipated first-quarter results report after the market closes. Fellow chip stocks are also gaining (Tesla +1%, Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.2%, Apple -0.2%, Microsoft -0.4%)

8×8 (EGHT) jumps 17% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
Cava Group Inc. (CAVA) is up 7.1%. The company raised its annual sales outlook after diners flocked to its restaurants in the first quarter, defying the crunch in consumer budgets that has weighed on the industry.
Keysight Technologies (KEYS) is up 2.3% after the measurement instruments company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a third-quarter forecast that is above the analyst consensus.
Toll Brothers (TOL) rises 2.3% after the luxury homebuilder reported second-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates and raised its full-year guidance.

In other corporate news, Goldman Sachs is said to have the leading role on the cover of SpaceX’s IPO, with Morgan Stanley also listed as a lead bank. SpaceX expects to proceed with its acquisition of Cursor 30 days after the company begins trading publicly, and if the deal doesn’t go through, SpaceX would pay Cursor a $10 billion breakup fee in cash, BBG reported. Early AI tools are boosting productivity as much as 30%, said JPMorgan, while Standard Chartered’s CEO has sought to reassure staff after a backlash to his remarks on using artificial intelligence to replace “lower-value human capital.” Softbank’s $60 billion bet on OpenAI, and growing unease over Masayoshi Son’s devotion to Sam Altman is today’s The Big Take. 

Futures are higher in early trading as investors digest a backdrop of surging rates volatility, heavily crowded semis exposure and euphoric – and outright manic bubble in the case of Korea – positioning, while some of the most aggressive AI momentum trades globally show signs of strain, even as stocks broadly ignore the historic rout taking place in the bond market, sending 30Y yields to 19 year highs.

A potential strike at Samsung and the words of Jensen Huang are two catalysts in the next 24 hours to keep traders on edge. 

The impending strike at Samsung could add to concerns around supply being able to meet burgeoning demand for AI memory chips in the face of already surging memory prices, at a time inflation is coming for the overcrowded AI trade. 

Nvidia will give a much-anticipated update on the state of the AI economy when it reports after the close. While sales are estimated to have grown 80%, investors will be more focused on what Nvidia has to say about ramping up production and fending off competitors.
Options traders are pricing an implied move of about 5.5% for Nvidia shares in either direction following the results. With the report coming at a time when the roaring rally in chipmakers is coming off the boil, well-received earnings could give the sector fresh momentum and help drive global indexes even higher into superbubble territory.

“The semiconductor rally has stalled, but really is just in a holding pattern until Nvidia reports,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “Nvidia can, for now, keep its beat-and-raise machine going, which will reignite the rally in semiconductors.”

Today we also get the minutes of the April 28–29 FOMC meeting which should show that support for removing the easing bias from the statement extended beyond the three dissenters. The minutes should reinforce the market view that the easing cycle is on an extended hold​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​, according to Bloomberg Economics. Fed’s Paulson said she favored holding interest rates steady and conditioned lower borrowing costs on making sustained progress on inflation.

President Donald Trump threatened to resume strikes on Iran in the coming days as part of the push for a deal to end the war, after he said he had just called off a US attack. Alexandre Drabowicz, chief investment officer at Indosuez Wealth Management, said he wouldn’t be surprised if Trump’s next steps take into account where interest rates are headed, given the current yield levels. “We’re in the thick of the danger zone,” he said.

“Stagflation risk has gone up significantly,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St. James’s Place. “When we’re talking about increased inflation and falling growth, in that environment, most asset classes will struggle, including bonds.”

In politics, the Republican-led US Senate signaled mounting opposition to continuing the Iran war in a procedural vote Tuesday, reflecting deepening political unease over a conflict that is taking a financial toll on Americans. Trump signed an executive order directing regulators to issue guidance on banking services to undocumented migrants, in a move that could tighten access to the financial system.

Retail is in focus before the market opens, with Target and TJX set to report. Visits to Target stores during the first quarter were up 5.1% from the year prior, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, according to data from Placer.ai. The firm also notes traffic in April rose 5.5% from the previous year.

European stocks edge higher alongside a pullback in energy prices, which saw Brent briefly slip onto a $108/bbl handle. Stock market operator Euronext is among the biggest gainers, while credit checking firm Experian fell on its latest earnings. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

Euronext shares gain 7.1%, most since July 2023, after the stock market operator reported what analysts say are strong 1Q earnings, driven by better revenues and costs, with the equity markets division as the main standout
CSG shares rise as much as 12%, the most since January, after the defense company reported results analysts called strong, saying the market should be relieved after the recent selloff
Marks & Spencer shares rise as much as 5.5% after the retailer reported a milder drop in adjusted pretax profit than anticipated during FY26, having grappled with a costly cyberattack during the year
RS Group shares rise as much as 10%, the most since November 2024, after the distributor of electrical and industrial products announced a £100m share buyback and pointed to improving momentum across its major markets
Playtech shares gain as much as 5.1% after the gaming software maker said it delivered an “excellent trading performance” over the first four months of the year, according to a statement ahead of its annual general meeting
Ypsomed shares jump as much as 14%, the most since April 2025, after the Swiss maker of injection systems reported better-than-expected financial results and provided guidance that pleased investors
Severn Trent shares rise as much as 4.9% after the UK water company reported earnings ahead of expectations in FY26 and upgraded its outlook for FY28; peer United Utilities is up 1.3%%, while smaller rival Pennon is trading 1% higher
Experian shares drop for the first day in five, falling as much as 6%, as the credit checking company’s full-year guidance proves slightly lower than analysts expected
Orkla falls as much as 8.9% after the Norwegian consumer goods group reported earnings which fell short of expectations. DNB Carnegie sees a “mixed” report, flagging an adjusted Ebit miss and increased margin pressure
Rusta falls as much as 8.6%, the most since September, after SEB cut its recommendation on the Swedish retailer to hold from buy, saying the stock’s valuation discount has disappeared after a strong rally
B&M falls as much as 3.9% as Goodbody cut its rating on the European budget retailer to hold from buy. The broker sees tepid earnings as the UK macroeconomic climate deteriorates and poor weather weighs on sales

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell for a fourth straight session, heading for their longest losing streak in nearly two months as chip stocks dropped and bonds sold off on inflation concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.3%, with Samsung and TSMC among the the biggest drags. Samsung shares slumped after its labor union said it will go on strike Thursday, a development that pushed the Korean benchmark Kospi lower. Most markets in the region were down, led by Kospi’s 3% decline. Concerns that the US-Iran war may stretch on have lifted global inflation expectations, pushing yields higher. The higher cost of capital may hinder the fast expansion of Asian stocks that have ridden artificial intelligence tailwinds to grow earnings. Stocks also fell in Japan, China, Hong Kong and Australia.

In FX, the greenback has given back some ground after dollar gains pushed EUR/USD to its lowest level since April 7. JPY remains rangebound amid the threat of intervention, with Yen fundamentals still bearish (Supplementary Budget/Energy). Demand at the overnight JGB auction was weak and saw some pressure in JGBs but no real follow-through to the FX space. USD/JPY is unchanged and testing 159.00 to the downside at the time of writing. GBP is a little weaker after soft April inflation data trimmed bets on BoE hikes. GBP/USD moved lower by c. 15pips post-data, now above pre-release levels as it attempts to regain a 1.34 handle. EUR/GBP moved higher by 10pips post-data, a move which swiftly pared amid resistance at 0.8670 and recent energy-related moves. (See 08:40 BST headline for more). EUR is also a touch weaker and seemingly moving lower in tandem with USD strength. EUR/USD -0.1%, the pair delved as low as 1.1583 before attempting to return back to a 1.16 handle, where it has traded throughout the week so far.

US Treasuries yields continue to test levels reminiscent of unnerving times. A sustained selloff in Asia and Europe on Tuesday continued through the US morning until a small relief bid emerged in the afternoon. Still, 30y yield ended the day hovering around 5.17% – the highest level since 2007. 10y yields have pushed past the 4.50% mark that has typically served as a reentry point from oversold territory and are inching closer to 4.75%. Global inflationary concerns, a Middle East crisis and a lack of conviction has led to a perfect storm of stop outs and compounding bearish momentum. The lack of thematic dip buying is likely summed up by sentiment that things look cheap but could look even cheaper. 2s5s10s – something the desk highlighted a few sessions ago – has dramatically cheapened 10bp over the past few days. Wednesday’s 20y auction will be a key gauge on the market’s appetite for long-end duration at these levels. The elevated rate environment is bad news for risk assets in a world where debt-fueled capex is high, and this US administration has used tools to indirectly affect dip buying in duration before

This morning treasuries hold gains amid a bigger curve-steepening rally in gilts after UK inflation gauge slowed more than economists estimated. US yields are 2bp-3bp lower on the day, with 5s30s curve steeper by more than 1bp; 10-year is down 2.7bp near session low 4.64%, with UK 10-year lower by more than 8bp, Germany’s by more than 3bp. UK front-end yields remain around 10bp richer on the day heading into the US session, which includes a 20-year bond auction poised to draw the highest yield since October 2023. July WTI crude oil futures, down around 2.5%, also support Treasuries. UK yields are 7bp to 10bp lower on the day with 2s10s and 5s30s curves steeper by about 1.5bp; following the UK inflation data, swaps-implied chance of a BOE rate hike in June ebbed to less than 20%, compared with about 50% at one point last week

Treasury auctions resume with $16 billion 20-year new issue at 1pm New York time. WI 20-year yield near 5.17% is ~29bp cheaper than last month’s auction; a $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening is ahead Thursday.  IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of offerings. Twelve borrowers raised almost $15 billion on Tuesday with issuers paying, on average, 4.8bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.9 times covered

Economic data slate empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Barr (9:15am), and minutes of FOMC’s April 28-29 meeting are slated for 2pm release

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +0.2%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
DAX +0.2%
CAC 40 +0.3%
10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.64%
VIX little changed at 18.03
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1204.72
euro -0.1% at $1.1591
WTI crude -1.5% at $102.59/barrel

Top overnight news

The Trump administration is planning to tell NATO allies this week that it will shrink the pool of military capabilities that the U.S. would have available ‌to assist the alliance’s European nations in a major crisis, three sources familiar with the matter said. BBG
Two giant Chinese tankers laden with around 4 million barrels of oil exited the strait on Wednesday, the latest signal that Iran is willing to ease its blockade for countries it considers friendly. Iran had announced last week, while Trump was in Beijing for a summit, that it had reached an agreement to ease rules for Chinese ships. RTRS
India is preparing to send vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to load energy cargoes from Middle East suppliers, the first time since the Iran conflict began. BBG
Xi Jinping called for “a comprehensive ceasefire” in the Middle East as he opened talks with Vladimir Putin in Beijing. BBG
US President Trump signed a fintech Executive Order to protect the US financial system from illicit activity, while it was reported that the White House plans to release an Executive Order on cybersecurity and AI safety as soon as this week, which seeks early government access to advanced models.
Indonesia’s central bank snapped a long-running pause as it delivered its first rate hike in over two years to guard against inflation and steady the rupiah. Bank Indonesia on Wednesday raised its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%, coming off the sidelines after holding steady since it eased policy settings in September last year. The move surprised markets. WSJ
British inflation cooled by more than expected in April but the slowdown did little to mask ‌a tough outlook for households, with global costs from the Iran war set to hit them harder later this year. Consumer prices rose by an annual 2.8%, down from March’s annual inflation rate of 3.3%, official data showed, helped by smaller increases in household energy and other regulated utility bills than in April 2025, and by measures to lower energy bills introduced by finance minister Rachel Reeves. RTRS
The EU finalized the text of its long-delayed US trade deal after months of negotiations, clearing a major hurdle to ratifying the pact before President Donald Trump’s threatened deadline to impose higher tariffs. The EU agreed to scrap tariffs on US industrial goods in exchange for a 15% cap on EU export levies. BBG
Japan’s 20-year bond auction drew strong demand, helping calm a recent selloff in longer-dated JGBs. PM Sanae Takaichi said an extra budget would avoid large bond sales. BBG
China banned Nvidia’s US export-friendly RTX 5090D V2 gaming chip last Friday. FT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined following the weak handover from the US, with sentiment dampened amid headwinds from a higher yield environment and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. ASX 200 retreated with the declines led by underperformance in the mining and materials sectors, while a lack of data and firmer yields contributed to the uninspired mood. Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 60,000 level with notable pressure in machine tool and electrical equipment manufacturers, while recent comments from Japan’s Finance Minister, and current FX levels were seen to stoke intervention risks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat sentiment amid bond and inflation woes, with the declines in Hong Kong led by mining, solar and property stocks, while there was a lack of surprises from the PBoC announcement to maintain the benchmark Loan Prime Rates for the 12th consecutive month.

Top Asian News

Chinese President Xi met Russian President Putin in Beijing and said that relations have reached their current level due to deepened political mutual trust and strategic cooperation, while Putin said ties between Russia and China support broader international stability. Furthermore, China and Russia plan to deepen continuous strategic coordination, and Putin invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to travel to Russia next year, while Xi told Putin that the world faces the risk of regressing into a “law of the jungle.”
Japanese PM Takaichi said she is not currently at a stage where she can comment on the possible size of the extra budget. She further said that plans to protect people’s lives and businesses while curbing issuance of deficit-financing bonds as much as possible.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) were initially incrementally lower, but now display a more positive picture. On the trade front, the EU finalised the text of its US trade deal, in which the bloc would remove levies on US industrial goods in exchange for a 15% tariff ceiling on EU exports. Next steps are for the Parliament and EU countries to vote to ratify the text. The AEX (+0.4%) hovers around the U/C mark, with chip majors ASML (+3.2%) and BESI (+2.3%) supporting the index, while the FTSE 100 (-0.1%) sees little support following the cooler-than-expected UK inflation print. European sectors trade mixed. Basic Resources tops the sector pile as it manages to claw back some of Tuesday’s losses. Energy and Technology round out the top three sectors. To the downside, Media, Retail and Food, Beverages & Tobacco underperforms. UK supermarkets (Tesco -1.6%, Sainsburys -1.4%) have came under pressure after reports by the FT stated that the UK Treasury is pushing large supermarkets to introduce voluntary price caps on key groceries in return for lifting some regulations.

Top European News

UK Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) M/M 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.7%, Low. 0.8%, High. 1.3%).
UK Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 3.3%, Low. 2.8%, High. 3.4%); Services 3.2% (prev. 4.5%). ONS: “There was a notable fall in annual inflation led by lower electricity and gas prices. This was due to the government’s energy bill support package reducing variable and fixed tariffs, along with lower global wholesale energy prices before the conflict in the Middle East, which fed through to the reduction in the Ofgem cap.”
UK Core Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) M/M 0.7% (Prev. 0.4%).
UK Core Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) Y/Y 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 3.1%, Low. 2.5%, High. 3.2%).

FX

USD continues driving higher amid the continued unconstructive oil/yield environment with oil either side of USD 110/bbl and yields still elevated, albeit lower on the day. US/Iran news overnight was light, and nothing pertinent this morning, but the running commentary remains hostile. The Buck will remain attentive to Gulf developments, alongside expected hawkish FOMC minutes this evening, and NVIDIA earnings after the US close. DXY +0.1%, is now above all significant DMAs, with the 50DMA closest at 99.00.
JPY remains rangebound amid the threat of intervention, with Yen fundamentals still bearish (Supplementary Budget/Energy). Demand at the overnight JGB auction was weak and saw some pressure in JGBs but no real follow-through to the FX space. USD/JPY is unchanged and testing 159.00 to the downside at the time of writing.
GBP is a little weaker after soft April inflation data trimmed bets on BoE hikes. GBP/USD moved lower by c. 15pips post-data, now above pre-release levels as it attempts to regain a 1.34 handle. EUR/GBP moved higher by 10pips post-data, a move which swiftly pared amid resistance at 0.8670 and recent energy-related moves. (See 08:40 BST headline for more). EUR is also a touch weaker and seemingly moving lower in tandem with USD strength. EUR/USD -0.1%, the pair delved as low as 1.1583 before attempting to return back to a 1.16 handle, where it has traded throughout the week so far.

Central Banks

Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said inflation remains too high and interest rate cuts may only happen after inflation is controlled, while he also commented that current policy is appropriate and it is healthy for markets to consider an extended hold or hikes. Paulson stated the US labour market is stable and consumption is slowing, but is resilient, and a rate hike may be considered if growth moves above potential or other inflation risks emerge. Furthermore, he reiterated that he did not see a need to change language at the last policy meeting, as well as noted that risks are ‘super-elevated’ right now to both inflation and the outlook.
ECB’s Wunsch said the bond selloff is not impacting the ECB’s thinking of Iran and that the ECB will need to react at some point.
JPMorgan expects the BoE to hike 25bps in July (prev. forecast of hike in June).

Fixed Income

Global fixed benchmarks are firmer this morning, attempting to rebound from recent losses as energy prices pull back this morning. UK benchmarks outperform thanks to a cooler-than-expected regional inflation report, which has reduced the chance of a hike in June.
USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks and trades towards the upper end of a 108-19+ to 108-30+ range. Focus remains on the geopolitical environment, with a recent WSJ report suggesting that Iran’s position in talks with the US to end the war hasn’t changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress towards a deal. Earlier today, the IRGC provided some punchy rhetoric after it stated that the war would extend “beyond the region” if Iran is attacked again. Ultimately, an environment which keeps energy-related inflation woes at the front of minds, allowing yields to remain at elevated levels. On that front, the US10yr is just off recent highs, residing at 4.65%; the US-30yr (5.17%) remains towards peaks, after it surged to levels not seen since 2007, in the prior session. Ahead, FOMC Minutes and a 20yr auction.
Bunds are firmer by around 10 ticks, and hold within a 123.86 to 124.22 range. Earlier, German PPI M/M printed a touch above the expected (1.2% vs exp. 1%); the statistics office notes that it “is primarily due to higher prices for intermediate goods”, particularly in precious metals prices. The report also highlighted the continued surge in energy prices. There was little move in German paper following this report. On the central banking front, ECB’s Wunsch said that the bond sell-off is not impacting the ECB’s thinking of Iran, adding that the Bank will need to act at some point. Elsewhere, French President Macron nominated Emmanuel Moulin to head the Bank of France. He said at the Senate today that the ECB must be ready to act to combat inflation, and stressed the importance of an independent central bank. He now appears at the National Assembly, where the outcome of the votes for his nomination will be announced this afternoon.
Gilts outperform vs peers, and are currently higher by around 45 ticks; UK paper holds at the upper end of an 86.07 to 86.54 range. From a yield perspective, unsurprisingly the UK curve is bull steepening; the 10yr is now eyeing the 5% mark to the downside, but will likely need some positive geopolitical updates for a decisive breach below the key level. Price action today follows a cooler than expected inflation report, where headline CPI slowed to 2.8% in April, from 3.3% in March and below consensus of 3.0%. This report spurred a dovish repricing at the BoE, with markets now assigning an 8% chance of a hike in June (vs 35% pre-release); July now 50% (vs 84% pre-release).
Germany sells EUR 3.845 vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.90% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.5x (prev. 1.24x), average yield 3.16% (prev. 2.92%), retention 23.1% (prev. 23.66%).
Japan sells JPY 525.8bln 20-year JGBs; b/c 4.01x (prev. 4.82), average yield 3.711% (prev. 3.327%).

Commodities

WTI and Brent July futures have been edging lower throughout the European morning thus far, with newsflow relatively mixed. Out of Iran, one official noted that the region is open to negotiations whilst an IRGC member stated that the war will extend beyond the region, if Iran is hit again. Most recently, Saudi press citing a diplomatic source suggested that Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks.
Nonetheless, crude futures remain heavy, with WTI in a USD 102.50-104.45/bbl range while its Brent counterpart resides in a USD 109.52-111.49/bbl range at the time of writing, with some weakness seen in the European morning despite a lack of clear catalysts, although the moves did follow comments from the Iranian Deputy to the President. Dutch TTF is flat in choppy trade above the EUR 51.50/MWh mark.
Spot gold is choppy and resides in a relatively narrow USD 4,453-4,508/oz at the time of writing, vs yesterday’s USD 4,464-4,589.58/oz parameter, with the yellow metal subdued by the firmer dollar. Spot silver, conversely, rebounds following yesterday’s 5% losses.
Base metals are mixed with newsflow on the quieter side this morning as markets await further US-Iran updates, with its implications watched from inflationary/growth standpoints. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13,357.00-13,506.00/t range at the time of writing.
US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.1mln (exp. -3.4mln), Distillates -1.0mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -5.8mln (exp. -2.1mln), Cushing -1.4mln.
Russia’s Kremlin said there is an agreement with China regarding something important on energy. Russia’s Kremlin spokesperson Peskov later said the details on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline still needs to be agreed.
UK Treasury said Chancellor Reeves is expected to introduce broad reforms that would allow Parliament to authorise critical energy infrastructure projects.

Trade/Tariffs

The EU has finalised the text of its US trade deal, as the bloc races to meet US President Trump’s July 4th deadline. The deal would see the EU remove levies on US industrial goods in exchange for a 15% tariff ceiling on EU exports. EU’s von der Leyen later said she welcomes agreement reached by the European Parliament and Council on reducing tariffs for US industrial exports to the EU, while she calls on the co-legislators to move swiftly and finalise the process on this.
EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic has reportedly been in contact with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer.
China’s MOFCOM confirmed China will purchase 200 Boeing (BA) jets and said the US is expected to provide engines and parts support for the China Boeing deal. MOFCOM announced a resumption of poultry imports from certain US states and said China reinstated qualified US beef exporter registrations, while it stated the US and China are seeking to extend the Kuala Lumpur trade agreement.

Geopolitics: Iran

US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS citing US officials.
US Senate voted 50-47 to advance war powers resolution that would end US strikes on Iran unless approved by Congress.
Iran’s IRGC said that if the attack on Iran occurs again, the war will extend beyond the region, Fars News reported.
Iranian Deputy to the President Banah said Tehran is open to negotiations within national interests, Al Mayadeen reported.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said months after the start of the war on Iran, US Congress acknowledged the loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions, and Iran’s powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as the first to strike down a touted F-35, while he added that with lessons learned and the knowledge they gained, a return to war will feature many more surprises.
Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks, Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported citing a senior diplomatic source. A diplomatic source says Iran and Pakistan held conflicting positions on negotiation channels and the venue for talks, and says mistrust was affecting coordination between Iran and Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Interior Minister Naqvi is on route to Tehran, according to Journalist Mallick.
“On the verge of a decision: Trump and Netanyahu held a phone conversation last night that was described as “lengthy and dramatic,” according to journalist Segal.
Two Chinese supertankers, carrying 4mln barrels of oil, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to tracking data. It was later reported that India was preparing to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following prior reports regarding the Chinese tankers.

Ukraine

EU governments are discussing whether former ECB President Draghi or former German Chancellor Merkel could represent the bloc in potential negotiations with Russian President Putin, according to FT.
Russian strike killed two in Ukraine’s Dnipro and Ukraine reports multiple regional drone attacks, while Russia claims interception of 273 Ukrainian drones, according to AFP.
Ukraine’s military confirms it struck a Russian oil refinery in the region of Nizhny Novgorod.

Other

Some Trump advisers reportedly left the US-China summit thinking that a Chinese move on Taiwan was growing more likely, Axios reported. The piece suggested that Taipei is not in panic, at least on the surface
US President Trump said Cuba is a failed nation that needs help from the US, while he believes a diplomatic deal can be made, according to Semafor.
US indictment of former Cuban president Raúl Castro is expected to be announced today, according to two federal sources familiar with the investigation cited by NBC News.

US Event Calendar

7:00 am: United States May 15 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.7%
9:15 am: United States Fed’s Barr Speaks on Consumer Financial Health
2:00 pm: United States FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we await earnings from Nvidia, the largest company in the world, tonight, the global bond selloff showed no sign of easing yesterday, with yields at multi-year highs around the world. Long-end Japanese yields are rallying notably this morning though after a firm 20yr auction at historically high yields. Nevertheless front end yields everywhere have climbed over the last 24 hours. There hasn’t been a single catalyst, but with Brent crude holding above $110/bbl and the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, investors moved to price a growing probability of imminent rate hikes. Indeed, the chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026 moved up to 81%, despite the easing bias in their last statement. And significantly, President Trump seemed open to Kevin Warsh proceeding how he wanted to, telling the Washington Examiner that “I’m going to let him do what he wants to do”.

If you’re looking for positives it seems there are three oil tankers currently navigating the Strait this morning, two Chinese and one South Korean. Assuming they get through this would mark one of the busiest days since the closure. So one to watch.

Back to bonds and this upward pressure on yields was clear around the world yesterday, but it was US Treasury yields that saw the biggest jump, with new records across the curve. Most significantly, the 30yr yield (+5.8bps) hit a post-2007 high of 5.18%, whilst the 30yr real yield (+4.0bps) hit a post-2008 high of 2.86%. For shorter maturities, the records weren’t quite so big, but the 10yr yield (+7.9bps) still rose to 4.67%, the highest since January 2025. And with investors bringing forward their rate hike expectations, the 2yr yield (+7.4bps) also hit its highest since February 2025, at 4.12%. The worrying thing would be that with this base in yields formed, where would yields go if strikes resumed on Iran? It’s not inconceivable that we’d return to the bond fears seen on April 9th 2025 a week or so after Liberation Day. That ultimately created the conditions for the US to pull back from the maxamalist tariff regime but the session that morning in Asia was pretty fraught.

The latest rise in nominal and real yields kept up the downward pressure on equities as well. In fact, the S&P 500 (-0.67%) fell for a 3rd consecutive session, which is the first time that’s happened since late-March, right before the index staged one of its fastest rebounds ever. Tech stocks led the declines, with the Magnificent 7 (-1.33%) dragging the index lower. But it wasn’t just the megacaps, as the hawkish repricing also meant the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.01%) had a decent pullback with cyclical stocks seeing a broad underperformance.

Interestingly, yesterday’s rates move came despite pretty stable oil prices, which is noteworthy given how tight the correlation has been between Treasury yields and oil since the Iran conflict began. By the close, Brent crude (-0.73%) was down to $111.28/bbl, though that decline had come after Trump’s comments on Monday evening, with oil prices then creeping higher for most of yesterday’s session. Still, the stabilisation meant inflation expectations actually fell in many countries, and the rates repricing was driven by higher real rates instead. In particular, the 1yr US inflation swap (-1.9bps) fell to 3.37%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap (-2.3bps) fell to 3.84%. The drift lower in Europe came even as natural gas prices recorded an eighth consecutive increase, with TTF gas rising +3.12% to EUR 51.82/MWh, its highest since early April.

In terms of the latest in the Middle East, Trump reiterated his recent threats yesterday, saying that “I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit”. In terms of how long he’d wait, he then said “I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Something maybe early next week — a limited period of time.” So the prospect of an escalation was still being floated. The mood also wasn’t helped by a Wall Street Journal report that mediators saw little progress in the US-Iran talks. By contrast, Vice President Vance suggested that talks had “made a lot of progress” though he also said “we’re locked and loaded” to restart a military campaign against Iran if a deal did not materialise.

In the meantime, there was also a Bloomberg report that NATO was discussing the possibility of a deployment to help ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That came from a senior NATO official, who said it was being considered if the Strait isn’t reopened by early July. The article said the proposal had support from several NATO members, but not unanimous support.

Asian equity markets are mostly lower this morning with the KOSPI (-1.98%) the biggest underperformer after Samsung reversed its initial gains, declining by over -4% following the company’s announcement that negotiations with the union have collapsed due to unresolved differences on several outstanding issues, leading to the decision to initiate a strike. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-1.67%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.36%) are also trading sharply lower with the Hang Seng (-0.55%), the CSI (-0.28%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.66%) out-performing. S&P 500 (-0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.13%) futures are more stable but European stock futures are down nearly three quarters of a percent.

30yr JGBs have rallied around 10bps this morning after a decent 20yr auction but yields out to 10 years are slightly higher. UST yields are around a basis point lower out to 10yrs this morning.

In monetary policy action, the PBOC left benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 12th straight month as authorities balanced the need to support weak domestic demand against rising inflation risks linked to higher global energy prices. The central bank kept one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, in line with market expectations.

In Europe, bond yields also moved up to new highs yesterday. Indeed, the 10yr German yield (+4.4bps) hit to a post-2011 high of 3.19%, and the 30yr German yield (+2.8bps) also hit a post-2011 high of 3.70%. That came as investors dialled up the prospect of an ECB rate hike at the next meeting in June, with the probability up to 89% by the close. Bundesbank President Nagel also pointed in that direction, saying that “This energy supply shock is more persistent, so we are moving away from our baseline scenario”, and that the ECB may “have to do something”. But unlike the US, European equities still managed to post a modest gain, with the STOXX 600 (+0.19%) up for a second day running.

Here in the UK, gilts saw a relative outperformance after a dovish set of labour market data. Notably, the number of payrolled employees was down -100k in April (vs -10k expected), and the unemployment rate for the three months to March rose to 5.0% (vs. 4.9% expected). So that weakness meant investors dialled back the chance of rapid rate hikes from the Bank of England. Indeed, the probability of a hike by the June meeting fell to just 22%, the lowest it’s been in two months. And in turn, gilts outperformed their European counterparts, with the 10yr yield (+3.0bps) seeing a smaller increase to 5.13%.

Over in Canada, the latest CPI print also came in on the dovish side, which led investors to dial back the chance of an imminent rate hike. That showed headline CPI only rising to +2.8% in April (vs. +3.1% expected). Moreover, both of the core measures followed by the Bank of Canada actually fell, with median core down to +2.1% (vs. +2.3% expected), and trim core down to +2.0% (vs. +2.2% expected). So the probability of a rate hike by July fell to just 24%, and in turn that put downward pressure on Canada’s front-end yields. For instance, the 2yr yield (-2.1bps) fell to 3.03%, despite the global moves elsewhere.

On the data front, US pending home sales accelerated to +3.3% yoy in April (vs. +2.1% expected), their strongest annual pace since November 2024. Elsewhere, Eurozone trade data showed the block’s trade surplus falling to 9-month low in March amid higher oil prices and a rising deficit with China. Our European policy analysts discussed the EU push to increase trade defenses against China in a note yesterday (see here).

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close. Meanwhile, data releases include the UK CPI print for April just after we go to press. Then from central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s April meeting, and also hear from the Fed’s Barr and the ECB’s Sleijpen.