Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The federal Iraqi government is in contact with Iran to persuade Tehran to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Tuesday. 

“There is communication with Iran regarding allowing the passage of some Iraqi oil tankers,” the minister said in statements carried by the Iraqi News Agency (INA). 

Iraq, unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), doesn’t have any options – even partial – to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed for over two weeks now, forcing Baghdad to slash oil production as storage sites and tankers available in the Gulf filled up.

Iraq was the first to announce more than a week ago it was slashing crude oil production amid the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Last week Iraq said it would maintain crude oil production at roughly 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) as the war disrupting the Persian Gulf continues to cripple the country’s export routes.

Before the war, Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia, produced more than 4.4 million bpd. 

But with no way out of the Gulf for all these barrels, Iraq and the other major producers are forced to slash upstream production.

Initial losses of about 5 million bpd have already hit about 10 million bpd, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its monthly report published last week. 

For Iraq, the situation is more critical than the other Gulf producers—its dependence on oil revenue is the highest in the region, and unlike Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, Baghdad doesn’t have a huge sovereign wealth fund to lean on.  

So Iraq is also scrambling to restore a northern oil export route that would send crude from the Kirkuk fields directly to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, as the southern export route via the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for weeks.  

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won warned that the global high-bandwidth memory crunch, driven by AI data center buildouts, will last until the end of the decade.

Chey told reporters on the sidelines of Nvidia’s annual developer conference, ‘GTC 2026,’ at the San Jose Convention Center in California on Monday that the memory chip shortage could last another four to five years, with supply unlikely to catch up to demand until 2030.

He explained, “The supply shortage problem stems from a wafer shortage, and it takes at least four to five years to secure more wafers,” adding, “We expect the supply shortage (across the industry) to persist at over 20% until 2030.”

“I will do my best to stabilize prices,” he noted. “I understand that our CEO (Kwak No-jung) will soon announce a new plan to stabilize DRAM prices.”

Chey was asked by a reporter about plans to move manufacturing plants or production capacity to the US under President Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ industrial base buildout. He responded that, at the moment, intentions are mostly focused on facilities in South Korea.

He explained, “It is the same wherever we go, and even if we establish production capabilities outside of Korea, it takes the same amount of time. Since Korea already has an established foundation, we can respond much more quickly, which is why we are focusing on Korea.”

Chey’s timeline for how long the memory crunch will linger is set to cause a “tsunami-like shock” across the global smartphone industry, according to a recent report from the market research firm International Data Corporation. The shock is expected to spread to every consumer electronics company that heavily relies on memory, first squeezing margins and then forcing companies to raise prices for consumers.

Bloomberg Markets Live reporter Michael Ball warned the other week that the memory crunch is becoming yet another bottleneck for AI data center buildouts.

Last week, Goldman analyst Katherine Murphy told clients that a “structural supply crunch in the memory market” will “put constraints on the availability of PCs and drive vendors to raise prices in order to protect thin margins.”

Murphy forecast that shipments in 2026 will slide by about 12% year over year to 245 million units, with consumer PCs declining 15% year over year to 108 million units and commercial PCs down 9% year over year to 137 million units.

“As of March 2026, we expect PC unit shipments at DELL and HPQ will be down high single digits to low double digits year over year in C2026, with AAPL PC units up modestly year over year on new product launches, including the entry-level MacBook Neo,” the analyst noted.

Murphy said the soaring DRAM and NAND component costs, which typically account for 20% of a PC build’s total cost, will account for about 40% under the current pricing regime.

Professional subscribers can read much more about the memory crunch on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Stock futures have reversed overnight losses and traded at session high, just above the flatline, despite diesel topping $5 a gallon – the highest since 2022 – with Iran expanding attacks on energy infrastructure around the Middle East and Israel targeting military / security leadership, reportedly killing Iran security chief Ali Larijani and the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij unit. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures were up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures were still red, with most big tech stocks edging lower except Nvidia after its bullish sales outlook. KOSPI leading overseas up 163bps but other parts of Asia strong as well with TWSE up 148 and Brazil bouncing +125bps. China property the notable laggard down 85bps. Cyclicals rallying in Europe with autos and chemicals squeezing higher. Large miss in German ZEW expectations with current data point more or less in line. Australia’s central bank raised interest rates on Tuesday as the conflict in Iran worsened existing concerns around an acceleration in inflation and the country’s reliance on oil imports.  Energy prices are off their highs as markets analyze the outcome of a partial opening of SoH, even as forecasts for production curtailments to grow from ~6.5mm bpd (Mar 13) to ~12mm bpd (Mar 20). US transport fuels continue to surge. For investors, growth optimism is tanking, inflation expectations are jumping, and cash levels are surging, according to Bank of America. WTI was back near $100 after an Iraqi oil field and key Emirati port were targeted by Iranian drones and missiles. Trump reiterated his appeals for other nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, which has still only seen a trickle of vessels pass through. He also delayed a summit with China for about a month. Bond yields are flat to up 1bp, the USD is mixed though the JPM desk flows remain defensive via USD buying. US economic data slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), March New York Fed services business activity (8:30am) and February pending home sales (10am) 

In premarket trading, Nvidia shares edge higher after its GTC event, however other Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.2%, Tesla -0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Microsoft -0.2%, Meta -0.3%, Alphabet -0.4%, Amazon -0.3%)

Coherent and Lumentum, developers of data center optical components, fall after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s comments that copper wires remain important in server racks. Coherent (COHR) falls 4% and Lumentum (LITE) declines 4%.
Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) rises 4% after issuing a more optimistic sales target for the first quarter after bookings by leisure and corporate customers accelerated into March.
DraftKings (DKNG) slips 1% after Argus Research stepped away from its buy rating, citing aggressive competition from prediction markets.
Janus Henderson Group (JHG) climbs 2% after Victory Capital Holdings Inc. submitted an improved proposal to acquire the company.
Lemonade (LMND) rises 6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to overweight, noting that the insurer is an early stage winner as autonomous vehicles transform the auto insurance industry.
Semtech (SMTC) falls about 2% after the chipmaker provided an outlook that failed to extend the stock’s 2026 rally.
Uber (UBER) gains 3% after the rideshare firm and Nvidia said they will expand their autonomous vehicle partnership to launch a global fleet of Nvidia software-driven autonomous vehicles across 28 cities globally by 2028.

In other corporate news, Finland’s Kone is said to be in talks to acquire TK Elevator, the Advent and Cinven owned elevator maker that’s been planning an IPO. Uber expanded its autonomous vehicle partnership with Nvidia to launch a global fleet of Nvidia software-driven robotaxis across 28 cities globally by 2028.

In the latest Iran war news, Israel said it killed Iran security chief Ali Larijani and the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij unit. Iran ramped up attacks on energy assets around the Persian Gulf, setting a massive UAE gas field ablaze. The conflict “is shifting into a prolonged war of attrition, embedding a persistent geopolitical risk premium in oil rather than a brief price spike,” according to Fidelity’s global head of macro and strategic asset allocation, Salman Ahmed. The prospect of a longer conflict has led the market to price out rate cuts, though there are some dissenters: Morgan Stanley is sticking with its forecast for a cut in June and another reduction in September.

Oil has risen more than 40% since the war started. In the latest developments, operations were suspended at the Shah field in the United Arab Emirates, while an Iraqi oil field and an Emirati port were also targeted by drones and missiles. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump renewed calls for other nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to expand strikes to Iranian oil infrastructure.

Fund managers in BofA’s survey, meanwhile, have turned bearish due to the the war, as well as concerns over private credit. Cash levels jumped from 3.4% last month to 4.3% in March, the biggest increase since the pandemic, Michael Hartnett wrote. Still, there’s no equity capitulation yet, and positioning hasn’t reached the uber-bearish levels seen in other recent shocks like April’s tariff turmoil and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

“The longer the oil price stays above $100 per barrel, the louder the alarm bells for the market over inflation risks,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

Amid the geopolitical chaos, AI news has become a market sideshow at the moment, with Nvidia shares having a muted reaction to CEO Jensen Huang’s presentation of new products and forecast for $1 trillion in sales through 2027. Elsewhere, Samsung unveiled its next-generation AI chip HBM4E, while South Korean conglomerate SK Group said that a global shortage of memory chips is likely to persist another four to five years.

The Reserve Bank of Australia increased the official cash rate to 4.10% from 3.85%, the second increase this year.

“The bias is certainly that central banks will be more hawkish that the markets wants them to be,” said Andrew Chorlton, chief investment officer of fixed income at M&G Investment Managers. “We don’t expect anyone else to raise rates but no one is going to cut rates and any remaining expectations of rate cuts are slowly diminishing.”

European stocks and bonds rally and US assets lag behind, while oil rises and US diesel prices hit the highest since 2022. Stoxx 600 up  by 0.3%- led by utilities and energy stocks – headed for its first back-to-back gain since the war began. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday: 

Sartorius shares gain as much as 5.9% after the German lab equipment maker provided medium-term targets which Morgan Stanley analysts called a “clear positive.”
Fraport shares climb as much as 4.7%, the most since November, after the German airport operator encouraged investors by reporting positive free cash flow.
Springer Nature shares jump as much as 9.6%, the most in almost a year, after the German publishing group reported results and gave guidance for 2026 including 5%-6% revenue growth.
Wickes shares rise as much as 8.6%, the most in 10 months, as full-year sales and profit beat analysts’ forecasts and the DIY retailer unveils a £10 million ($13.3 million) buyback.
Allegro shares fall as much as 4.1% as InPost’s plan to launch an AI shopping assistant was seen posing a competitive thread to online market places.
Indra Sistemas shares fall as much as 7.5% after El Confidencial reports that the government is planning to ask Chairman Ángel Escribano to step down from the defense firm.

Asian stocks rose, poised for a second day of gains, as tech shares advanced with help from an upbeat Nvidia outlook while investors continued to eye crude prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.4% Tuesday, with Samsung and TSMC among the biggest contributors after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled new products at a company event. South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.6%, while benchmarks also climbed in Taiwan, Hong Kong and most of Southeast Asia. Monday’s tech-led rebound in the US provided relief, along with continued optimism over the central role played by Asian companies in the ongoing AI buildout. Nevertheless, concerns remain about the impact of rising energy costs on inflation. Oil climbed as Iran stepped up attacks on energy infrastructure around the Persian Gulf.

“I would not read this as investors suddenly becoming comfortable with risk,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “The rally can continue through the week if oil stays contained and central banks do not sound more hawkish, but conviction is still fragile.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat after rising 0.2% the previous day. AUD/USD was down 0.2% to 0.7056 after the Reserve Bank of Australia voted five-to-four in favor of raising its interest rate, potentially signaling a less hawkish path ahead

In rates, Treasuries are slightly cheaper vs Monday’s closing levels, underperforming European counterparts, which are higher despite oil price rebound after Germany’s March ZEW expectations gauge missed estimates.  US yields are about 1bp cheaper on the day with the curve marginally steeper. 10-year is near 4.225%, trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 3bp and 4bp respectively.  European bonds higher, led by the UK. German investor outlook slumped on risks from the Iran war.  Treasuries face duration supply Tuesday in the form of 20-year bond reopening at 1pm New York time and another heavy corporate new-issue slate expected. Treasury’s $13 billion 20-year bond reopening has WI yield around 4.855%, ~19bp cheaper than last month’s weak auction, which tailed by 2bps.  IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of names so far; eight borrowers raised a total of nearly $30 billion on Monday. Issuers paid about 8bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.6 times covered. Five to seven issuers stood down and may try again Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement

In commodities, Crude bouncing in commodities with WTI up 270bps to $96, European gas up similarly; Brent crude is around $103 a barrel after Iran struck energy facilities around the Persian Gulf; US diesel prices are the highest since 2022. Gold little changed around $5,000/oz and Bitcoin dipping slightly further below $74,000. 

US economic data slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), March New York Fed services business activity (8:30am) and February pending home sales (10am). No significant earnings are expected before the market open. Earnings from Lululemon and Docusign follow later in the day. Nvidia’s GTC AI conference continues in San Jose. Conferences include BofA global industrials (London), Piper Sandler energy (Las Vegas) and JPMorgan industrials (Washington).

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -0.1%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
DAX +0.2%
CAC 40 +0.5%
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.22%
VIX +0.1 points at 23.65
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.96
euro +0.2% at $1.1523
WTI crude +2.8% at $96.14/barrel

Top Overnight News

Israel said it killed Iran security chief Ali Larijani and the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij unit. Iran ramped up attacks on energy assets around the Persian Gulf, setting a massive UAE gas field ablaze. BBG
Iraq ‌said it’s in contact with Iran to allow some oil tankers to pass through the ⁠Strait of Hormuz after the OPEC nation was forced to reduce oil output to a quarter. BBG
President Donald Trump has asked America’s NATO allies to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz — and their response has not exactly been enthusiastic. “This is not our war, we have not started it,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters Monday. That appeared to sum up the mood among U.S. allies, with leaders from Berlin to London expressing reservations about Trump’s demands and indicating they had no immediate plans to provide military support to reopen the crucial waterway. NBC
Trump announces and signs executive orders to bring more community banks back into the mortgage business and to lower construction costs for building more affordable homes.
Despite more than two weeks of relentless airstrikes, U.S. intelligence assessments say, Iran’s regime likely will remain in place for now, weakened but more hard-line, with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security forces exerting greater control. WaPo
China said Tuesday it remains “in communication” with the United States over a widely anticipated visit by President Donald Trump to Beijing, after Trump said he had requested a delay of about a month because of the ongoing war with Iran. SCMP
The PBOC is set to surpass the ECB as the world’s largest central bank this month, as measured by respective balance sheets in dollar terms. BBG
The IMF raised concerns about Ukraine’s ability to keep receiving aid from its $8.1 billion package as lawmakers stall on measures to unlock the financing, its representative said. BBG
Australia’s central bank raised interest rates on Tuesday as the conflict in Iran worsened existing concerns around an acceleration in inflation and the country’s reliance on oil imports. The Reserve Bank of Australia increased the official cash rate to 4.10% from 3.85%, the second increase this year. WSJ
BYD and Hyundai were among Asian auto stocks that rallied after announcing plans to work with Nvidia on autonomous vehicle development. BBG

Central Banks

RBA hikes the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.10%, as expected, with the decision made by a majority decision (5-4 vote split). Five members voted for a 25bps hike and four voted to leave the Cash Rate unchanged. Material risk inflation will stay above target for longer. Inflation risks have tilted further to the upside. Board will do what’s necessary to deliver price and jobs goals. Short-term inflation expectations have already risen. The conflict in the Middle East poses substantial risks in both directions and has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation. Will be attentive to data, evolving outlook, and risks in decisions. Wide range of data over recent months confirmed inflationary pressures picked up materially in H2 2025.
RBA Governor Bullock said rise in oil prices is not the reason for the rate increase and that inflation was already too high, adds risks to inflation are to the upside and cash rate was not high enough to bring inflation back to the target. All members agreed inflation was too high, board agreed inflation was too high. Had a very robust meeting. Members that voted to hold, voted in a hawkish sense. Discussion was about timing, not the direction of policy and hike. Difference was timing and those who voted against, still felt the need for an eventual rate increase. Today’s hike does not say anything about the forward path, and the forward path for rates is uncertain.
BoJ Governor Ueda said price trend is rising gradually and underlying inflation is gradually accelerating towards the 2% target. Will implement appropriate policy to maintain stable prices. Will guide monetary policy suitably to steadily and durably achieve the 2% price target. Expect underlying inflation to approach the target in the latter half of fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2027. Reaffirmed stance that it will act flexibly in exceptional situations when JGB yields suddenly rise. BoJ to conduct bond operations flexibly in exceptional cases.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks eventually traded mixed, with the region initially following suit to the gains on Wall Street, where sentiment was underpinned amid softer yields and oil price declines, although gains were capped overnight as oil prices partially rebounded and with participants bracing for this week’s central bank bonanza, which was kicked off by the RBA, which delivered a widely expected back-to-back 25bps rate hike. ASX 200 was kept afloat as gains in miners, utilities, and financials offset the losses in tech and consumer discretionary, although the upside was limited amid the RBA rate decision, in which the central bank hiked rates for the second consecutive meeting in a 5-4 vote split. Nikkei 225 briefly reclaimed the 54,000 status but later fell into the red as oil partially rebounded from an early trough. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark outperforming in early trade amid strength in consumer stocks, while the mainland lagged after US President Trump revealed the US asked to delay the Trump-Xi summit by a month or so due to the Iran war.

Top Asian news

China’s Ministry of Finance said more pro-active fiscal policy is to continue in 2026, while it is to support the domestic market and self-reliance in tech, as well as ensure necessary expenditure levels.
Japanese PM Takaichi reiterates that not considering further increase in consumption tax.

European Bourses are all gaining as markets continue to price in the effects of oil prices. The IBEX 35 is the outperformer, closely followed by the FTSE 100. On the other hand, the DAX 40 is the laggard. European Sectors give no additional bias. Utilities outperform, with an upgrade for Neste at Barclays, lifting the entire sector. The Technology sector lies towards the bottom of the pile, not benefiting from the NVIDIA GTC event. Other key movers include Close Brothers, Fraport and Roche.

Top European news

UK, Finland and others are reportedly exploring new defence financing mechanism by 2027, with the aim of increasing the availability of critical capabilities such as munitions.

FX

DXY is flat within a narrow range, easing from overnight highs and trading closer to session lows after recent weakness. Price action remains sensitive to oil and geopolitics, with limited fresh escalation. Headlines around potential US–Iran dialogue and conflicting reports of contact have kept direction subdued, while reports of a senior Iranian security figure being killed briefly weighed on the USD.
EUR/USD edges higher, reversing earlier weakness in line with the softer USD. Focus includes comments from EU’s Kallas, who suggested a Black Sea-style security model could be applied to the Strait of Hormuz and left the door open to EU participation. Broader EUR catalysts remain limited, with little reaction to progress on an EU–Australia trade deal. EUR saw downticks on the sub-par ZEW Economic Sentiment metrics.
GBP/USD trades firmer alongside peers amid modest USD softness. UK-specific newsflow is light, though markets continue to monitor UK–US relations amid reported tensions over positioning in the Iran conflict. The pair holds near the top of its recent range.
USD/JPY rebounded from a brief move below 159.00, supported by a partial recovery in the dollar and oil overnight. Upside is capped by broader USD softness during European hours, leaving the pair off recent highs and consolidating within yesterday’s range.
Antipodeans are mixed, with AUD/USD modestly firmer post-RBA. The initial dovish reaction to the rate decision reversed as Governor Bullock struck a hawkish tone, stressing that inflation remains elevated and that dissent centred on timing rather than the direction of further tightening.

Fixed Income

USTs initially extended yesterday’s sell-off, with crude strength lifting yields and pushing prices to session lows. More recent headlines around Larijani triggered a pullback in oil and a recovery in risk sentiment, supporting bonds and bringing USTs back to broadly unchanged levels.
Bunds followed a similar pattern, hitting early lows on higher yields driven by energy strength. The move reversed as oil pared gains on Larijani-related headlines, lifting Bunds back into positive territory. Negative ZEW Economic Sentiment propped up bunds in recent trade.
Gilts opened amid the initial Larijani headlines and saw only modest early downside before sharply reversing higher. The benchmark rallied strongly alongside the pullback in yields and energy, outperforming peers.
UK sells GBP 4bln 4.125% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.33x (prev. 3.94x), average yield 4.228% (prev. 4.001%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.2bps).
UK DMO plans to sell a new 10-year conventional gilt in April and long-maturity gilt in June. Also plans 2 syndicated gilt sales between April and June.
Japan sold JPY 613bln 20-year JGBs; b/c 3.25x (prev. 3.08), average yield 3.141% (prev. 2.968%).

Commodities

Crude futures rebounded overnight after the prior session’s pullback, as the Iran conflict continues without major escalation. Late US trade saw pressure on reports of US–Iran contact, which were subsequently denied, alongside renewed Iranian attacks on regional energy assets, supporting prices. In Europe, headlines added further volatility: Fujairah port suspended oil loadings, while Israel indicated Iran’s top security chief Larijani may have been killed. Strait of Hormuz developments remain in focus, with EU’s Kallas suggesting a Black Sea-style framework, while Iraq noted ongoing discussions with Iran to allow tanker passage—prompting some intraday softness.
Spot gold trades in a narrow range, largely tracking USD moves. Geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns are limiting haven-driven upside, keeping price action contained around the USD 5,000/oz level.
Base Metals are mixed, with copper consolidating after prior gains supported by improved risk sentiment. Prices remain capped below the USD 13,000/t level, with momentum flattening following the recent advance.
Fujairah port has suspended oil loadings, Bloomberg reported citing sources; loading berths at the Fujairah Oil Tanker Terminals were halted as of Tuesday morning.
UAE’s Fujairah confirms a fire in its petroleum industrial area.
Chinese state oil majors have recommenced seeking Russian oil shipments following the US waiver, according to sources.
Iraq’s oil minister said they are in contact with Iran to allow some oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, state news reported.
Kazakhstan and Russia have discussed increasing Russian oil transit to China to 12.5mln tonnes per year, according to Kazakhstan’s Kaztransoil.
EU’s Kallas said a model similar to the Black Sea could be used in the Strait of Hormuz but the question is what neighbouring countries, including Iran, could agree on; the door is not closed on the participation in the Strait.
Allies of the US President are concerned that Iranian attacks on oil tankers within the Strait of Hormuz are boxing in the US, Politico reported.
Iranian oil exports continue without interruption, Tasnim reported citing the Parliamentary Energy Committee spokesperson.
Some Japanese aluminium buyers have reportedly agreed with a global producer to pay a premium of USD 350/t for shipments between April and June.

Geopolitics: Middle East

Israeli Defence Minister Katz said Iran’s Top Security Chief Larijani was killed in the airstrike.
Israel struck senior Iranian official Larijani but it is unknown if he was injured or killed, an Israeli official tells the Jerusalem Post.
Israel Defence Forces announce wide-scale strikes against Iranian infrastructure and began additional wave of strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut.
A senior Iranian official says the new Supreme Leader rejected proposals that were sent to Iran’s Foreign Ministry by two intermediary countries, with the Leader stating it is not the right time for peace and that US and Israel must be defeated.
New Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is to deliver a message soon, according to Iranian media.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard arrests 10 foreigners on espionage charges in northeast of country.
Iran officials say the US has crossed the line and they signalled an intention to deliver a major lesson.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said his last contact with US envoy Witkoff was before the American attack on Iran.

Geopolitics: Other

UAE updated that air navigation has returned to normal across its airspace.
Pakistan confirmed it carried out airstrikes on Kabul and Nangarhar.
US President Trump’s administration was said to tell Cuba its president has to go for there to be meaningful progress in negotiations, according to NYT.
US President Trump said he believes he’ll have the honour of taking Cuba.
South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho and US Secretary of State Rubio discussed ensuring safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

US Event Calendar

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Summary:

Israel claims major decapitation strike: Says Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani were killed, but Iran disputes.

Iran rejects ceasefire, vows escalation: Leadership says it’s not “the right time for peace” until the US and Israel are “brought to their knees,” while denying any negotiations.

New oil targeting phase as Tehran pledges to be gatekeeper of Hormuz: Ships pass only “in coordination” with Tehran – talk of separate deal-making with BRICS capitals.

Iraq and UAE feel the pain: Drones hit the US Embassy area and Baghdad’s Green Zone, while strikes on UAE energy infrastructure and tankers push oil risks higher.

Allies hesitate as Trump issues contradictory rhetoric: Key NATO states are refusing to join US efforts to secure Hormuz, amid lack of confidence in Trump’s often shifting articulation of operation.

Pentagon on Monday confirmed about 200 servicemembers wounded so far in war, though says many of these ‘light’.

* * *

Israel Claims Big Decapitation Strike: Larijani & Basij Chief

Israel is making another big ‘decapitation strike’ claim, saying it has taken out Iran’s top security believed to be effectively running the country and the war, Ali Larijani. Israel further announced early Tuesday the lontime head of the Basij militia, Gholamreza Soleimani, was also killed.

If true it would mark one of the most significant blows to Tehran’s leadership since the war began. But in classic fog-of-war fashion, Tehran is pushing back against Israeli statements. Tehran has presented a handwritten message attributed to him, though not exactly what passes for proof of life.

On annual ‘Quds Day’ protest last week, Larijani openly challenged the US-Israeli attacks by showing up in the streets of Tehran.

The note was released ahead of funeral ceremonies for Iranian sailors killed in a recent US strike, and urges citizens to show support for the national ‘martyrs’ – but in the end does little to clarify whether Larijani is alive or dead. Just days ago he was seen marching defiantly in the streets of Tehran with other high-ranking officials as US-Israeli bombs fell not too far away.

The IDF announcement proclaiming his alleged death:

🔴Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the regime’s effective leader, has been eliminated.

Throughout the years, Larijani was considered one of the most veteran and senior figures within the Iranian regime leadership, and was a close associate… pic.twitter.com/kBIgSSGBm0

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 17, 2026

“The martyrdom of the brave members of the Navy of the Army of the Islamic Republic in Dena is part of the sacrifices of the proud nation that has emerged in this time of struggle against international oppressors,” Larijani wrote, in what could prove to be his last message. If he is deceased, he is likely to quickly be replaced.

No Peace Yet: Must Be ‘Brought to Their Knees’

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is calling on citizens to flood the streets for mass funerals of sailors killed when the IRIS Dena was sunk off the coast of Sri Lanka. Enemies “should know that in the shadow of the name of each of these high-ranking martyrs, thousands of other brave men will rise,” he said.

Most importantly, he announced that Islamic Republic leadership is rejecting any talk of de-escalation. Iran will exact a steep cost against its aggressors, he vowed. It is not “the right time for peace until the United States and Israel are brought to their knees, accept defeat, and pay compensation,” a senior official was quoted in Al Jazeera as saying, describing the position as “very tough and serious.”

Iran’s messaging here has been consistent. On Monday when President Trump claimed Tehran was “talking” – and later there were reports of text messages between Iran’s FM Araghchi and White House envoy Steve Witkoff, Iran’s government was quick to call this fake news.

“We don’t ask for ceasefire, but this war must end, in a way that our enemies never again think about repeating such attacks,” Araghchi has said. Central Israel has also continued to see inbound projectiles, also from Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran: Hormuz Isn’t Officially Shut, But it Controls Who Gets Through

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei pushed back on blockade claims, while signaling Tehran is effectively managing traffic through the critical chokepoint – as it tries to play nice with its BRICS allies but tries to keep the leverage on Washington, its allies, and the global economy.

“Ships from some countries passed through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said, framing Iran’s position as ultimately as the gatekeeper of the world’s most important oil artery. “Iran has always been the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and the safe passage of ships.”

⚡️CENTCOM publishes new footage of strikes in Iran pic.twitter.com/xU1kGunLtA

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 17, 2026

This could include pledges for Indian, Chinese, and Russian safe passage – and there’s been evidence of some of these getting through, just as in the Houthis Red Sea crisis of last year.

On Tuesday, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said: “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be the same as before and return to its previous conditions,” adding that “there is no longer any security.”

Bombardment of US Bases, Embassy, Oil Sites

“We have no hostility toward regional countries,” Baghad also said. “What we target are American bases and assets.” This after a likely Iranian-made drone hit the US Embassy in Baghad to start of this week, and also a drone slammed into the central Al-Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad’s highly protected Green Zone.

Air defenses in the Green Zone engaged incoming threats, but to no avail – the drones still got through. At the same time, energy infrastructure is increasingly in the crosshairs.

⚡️C-RAM fireworks over Baghdad continue pic.twitter.com/laf1QXOS56

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 16, 2026

A drone attack forced the shutdown of a gas field in Abu Dhabi, while a tanker was reportedly hit by an “unknown projectile” near a UAE oil port – only adding more pressure to already volatile markets and pushing oil prices higher.

C-RAM System reportedly seen in action, but is Green Zone’s defense crumbling?

An Iranian-backed militia successfully used a (likely fiber optic) FPV drone to carry out a reconnaissance mission through the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad yesterday.

Seen here, the drone flies unchallenged through the embassy complex for nearly two minutes. pic.twitter.com/S1Ky3eVUv0

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 17, 2026

“Nor Our War”: NATO Allies

Still, amid all this, NATO allies are holding back – perhaps confused and lacking confidence in President Trump’s daily shifting rhetoric, and as sometimes Trump issues contradictory messaging on the same day, or even in the very same presser.

“What does … Donald Trump expect a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to ​do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful US Navy cannot do?” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters on Monday. “This is not our war, we have not started it.“

What the Western allies see…

CNN airs compilation of Trump’s contradictions from his afternoon event pic.twitter.com/hzMWWRuSW4

— Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) March 16, 2026

Some leading NATO powers have made clear they won’t directly support any military effort to unblock the strait – including Germany, Italy, and Spain.

President Trump himself has conceded this week of Western partners: “Some are very enthusiastic about ​it, and some aren’t. Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years. We’ve ⁠protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to ​me.” Naturally they might be looking back only to last year and the Gaza War, when the major US-led naval coalition in the Red Sea struggled to halt Houthi attacks on global shipping, resulting in a stalemate and uneasy status quo where the Iran-linked Houthis built a lot of leverage.

Iran’s “New Phase Of Oil War”

Bloomberg Opinion and commodities columnist Javier Blas has written on X. “Further ominous developments today. For the first time, Iran successfully targeted oil and gas production facilities, rather than refining, terminals, and storage,”

Blas listed the IRGC’s attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities:

Oil and gas field in the UAE (Shah) hit

Oil field in Iraq (Majnoon) attacked

Plus Saudi Arabia saw large drone swarms

He explained that these attacks suggest “Iran has started a new phase of its oil war” against Gulf states aligned with the US. “Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn’t been attacked, and neither the Yemeni Houthis have tried to close the Red Sea,” Blas said. Brent crude has jumped more than 40% since the start of Operation Epic Fury in late February, but out-of-control spikes in crude markets have largely been capped so far by the IEA’s 32-nation “historic” emergency SPR release. Read our fuller analysis here.

Authored by Adam Dick via the Ron Paul Institute,

There was some good news for liberty on Friday. That is when a roughly 80 percent reduction in the fee the United States government imposes on individuals giving up their US citizenship took effect. The fee was lowered from 2,350 dollars to 450 dollars.

The move toward implementing the fee reduction had been in progress for several years in reaction to a lawsuit against the US government.

For people with enough wealth or recent income, or who don’t adequately establish their IRS tax compliance, there remains yet another payment the US government demands — an exit tax calculated based on the value of their assets.

While the significant reduction in the citizenship renunciation fee is welcome news, it is disgraceful that the US government imposes any fee whatsoever. Back in August of 2017, I commented on the fee, stating:

Most people who are US citizens did not choose to be such. They had that citizenship thrust on them as a matter of law upon their birth. To make people pay to give up citizenship for which they never asked is an abomination.

It was only in 2010 that the fee on giving up US citizenship was introduced at 450 dollars, the same amount it returned to on Friday.

Before 2010, individuals could renounce their US citizenship without the government demanding any fee. And the exit tax came into being just two years earlier — in 2008.

How about next returning to the situation before 2008, when individuals could renounce their US citizenship without the imposing of either the fee or the tax?

Crude oil futures rose in overnight trading, with Brent nearly reaching $105 per barrel and WTI climbing as high as $98.42 per barrel, as Iran intensified drone strikes on energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

“Further ominous developments today. For the first time, Iran successfully targeted oil and gas production facilities, rather than refining, terminals, and storage,” Bloomberg Opinion and commodities columnist Javier Blas wrote on X.

Blas listed the IRGC’s attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities:

Oil and gas field in the UAE (Shah) hit

Oil field in Iraq (Majnoon) attacked

Plus Saudi Arabia saw large drone swarms

He explained that these attacks suggest “Iran has started a new phase of its oil war” against Gulf states aligned with the US.

🚨 JUST IN: Shah oil field in UAE is burning after Iranian drone strikes – The war is now almost impossible for anyone to contain. pic.twitter.com/47wVpfUlo5

— 𝐓𝐌𝐓 (@TMT_arabic) March 16, 2026

“Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn’t been attacked, and neither the Yemeni Houthis have tried to close the Red Sea,” Blas said.

Further ominous developments today. For first time, Iran successfully targeted oil/gas production facilities (rather than refining, terminals and storage):

Oil and gas field in the UAE (Shah) hit
Oil field in Iraq (Majnoon) attacked
Plus Saudi Arabia saw large drone swarms https://t.co/TedeVLrsly

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 16, 2026

The continued bombardment of Gulf energy infrastructure by IRGC forces entered its third week, with the Strait of Hormuz mostly paralyzed.

BREAKING: Abu Dhabi’s media office says authorities are responding to a fire at the Shah oil and gas field caused by a drone attack, adding that no injuries have been reported. pic.twitter.com/5L3AObO2eB

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) March 16, 2026

Brent crude has jumped more than 40% since the start of Operation Epic Fury in late February, but out-of-control spikes in crude markets have largely been capped so far by the IEA’s 32-nation “historic” emergency SPR release.

To begin the week, the Trump administration showed urgency to reopen the critical maritime chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday morning that the US is deliberately “allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz” and is “fine” with some Indian and Chinese ships moving through “for now… to supply the rest of the world.”

Bessent highlighted “more and more of the fuel ships start[ing] to go through” and a possible “natural opening” the Iranians are permitting, a tactical concession to stabilize global supply while full escorts remain “militarily” off the table for now.

Last week, we highlighted JPMorgan’s head of commodity research, Natasha Kaneva, who warned that policy measures will have, at best, a limited impact on oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is assured, given the potential for up to 12 mbd in losses over the next two weeks.

Kaneva noted that Strait traffic is likely to become “increasingly conditional,” with Iran permitting passage for some vessels depending on their affiliation.

“The biggest risk in the market is the Strait of Hormuz remaining constrained for a longer stretch and the market feeling the US and its allies have a limited capacity to alter the dynamic,” Pepperstone Group analyst Chris Weston said.

Trump’s move to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint with a naval coalition largely fell flat at the start of the week. Allied countries, including Australia, Germany, and Japan, said they weren’t planning to send their warships through the critical waterway to shadow commercial tanker traffic.

In the US, the effects of an energy shock from the Middle East, according to new AAA data, show regular gas at the pump has jumped the most for any single month on record, up 25% so far in March.

The US national average for regular gas could very well be headed for the politically sensitive $4 mark. 

AAA data also showed the nationwide average retail price for diesel hit $5 a gallon, for the first time since December 2022.

CHART OF THE DAY: US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever.

That’s freight inflation — and another big hit to the country’s farming economy (and it has received many hit since Trump came into office) pic.twitter.com/lIUDbhqsC4

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 17, 2026

On Monday, JPMorgan analysts asked, “Is there an off-ramp?” to the Middle East conflict. That answer remains unclear at the moment. While the Trump administration is searching for an off-ramp, that may take a few more weeks.

The latest read on the American consumer comes from Goldman analysts led by Leah Jordan, who compiled the most important commentary from food companies on consumer behavior trends in the fourth quarter. It’s worth noting, however, that this snapshot predates the energy shock triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Jordan’s food and retail stock coverage includes 15 companies: Albertsons Companies, Conagra Brands, Cal-Maine Foods, General Mills, Grocery Outlet, Hormel Foods, Hershey, Kraft Heinz, Kroger, Mondelez International, Once Upon a Farm, Pilgrim’s Pride, Sprouts Farmers Market, Tyson Foods, and United Natural Foods.

On fourth quarter earnings results, the analyst said, “Overall, we continue to favor grocers that should benefit from ongoing consumption shifts toward fresh and private label, along with support from scale as the balance of power shifts toward retailers, highlighting Buy-rated ACI, KR, and SFM.”

She added, “While some headwinds persist for certain areas of packaged food, our Buy ratings for HSY (on CL), MDLZ, OFRM, HRL, SFD, and TSN are underpinned by solid top-line growth given category/region exposure, along with idiosyncratic and self-help margin drivers.”

The analyst then summarized what each company and retailer was saying about the consumer. The biggest takeaway is that the K-shaped economy remains an uncomfortable reality for the Trump administration. Jordan noted that the companies in her coverage struck an “overall cautious tone” regarding the consumer.

She continued:

We observed a continuation of cautious commentary around the consumer in 4Q, noting the majority of food retailers and manufacturers highlighted declining consumer sentiment along with an increased focus on affordability, especially for lower- and middle-income cohorts. Specifically, companies highlighted increased consumer engagement with items on promotion, smaller baskets, channel shifts toward club/value, and strong demand for value sizes (multi-packs/smaller packs) and private label. Overall, we continue to see a bifurcation across food, with strength in opening price points as well as premium and differentiated products (e.g., value-added, higher-quality ingredients, innovation). Regarding SNAP, most companies indicated temporary pressure from the pause to benefits during the government shutdown in the quarter, while we expect it to be a slight headwind in 2026 given ongoing reductions in the program. We note the greatest SNAP exposure for GO among the grocers (Exhibit 6) and CAG among packaged food (Exhibit 7). Amid this consumer backdrop, we observed incremental price investments by food retailers in the quarter, along with a step-up in brand investments by packaged food companies, with most seeing improvements in promotional lifts recently (Exhibit 8). We expect the long-term trend for private-label adoption to continue given its value proposition, while quality has improved and the stigma has waned, which should be a tailwind for food retailers and a headwind for packaged food companies.

Consumer pressure noted by food companies

It is no secret that the K-shaped economy has been a major challenge for the Trump administration. Notably, the comments above from food companies were made before the energy shock of the past two weeks triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict. The administration has insisted that the conflict will be short-lived and that any rise in energy prices will be temporary.

However, if the conflict persists and Brent and WTI futures remain above $100/bbl, higher pump prices could weigh on consumer sentiment and negatively affect consumer behavior on the retail side of the economy.

Related:

Cost of Living Crisis Continues As Job Market Wanes

401(k) Hardship Withdrawals Hit Record High

Professional subscribers can read much more from Goldman’s “Americas Food: Key themes from 4Q results” on our Marketdesk.ai portal

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Rachel Rooney, once a celebrated children’s poet, has been forced to abandon her career after trans activists launched a vicious assault on her for simply stating biological truths. In a revealing new interview, she details the bullying that ended her time in publishing, all because she refused to bow to radical gender ideology pushed on kids.

The backlash highlights yet another example of the alphabet mob silencing anyone who deviates from their dogma, prioritizing activist agendas over free speech and child safeguarding in the UK.

“This is the book that ended my career,” Rooney told The Telegraph, referring to her 2018 title My Body is Me!, which encourages children to accept their natural bodies. The book was designed to counteract the “explosion” of books promoting radical gender ideology.

✍️ ‘Author @RooneyRachel made the mistake of speaking up for women and children’s rights in an industry dominated by rigid gender ideology’

Read the full story below 🖇️https://t.co/6OrvxjaGza pic.twitter.com/yVgNXV0FX9

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) March 16, 2026

Trans activists didn’t see it that way. They branded My Body is Me! as ‘terrorist propaganda’ and ‘transphobic,’ sparking a harassment campaign that included death threats, online abuse, and professional blacklisting. Rooney endured relentless vilification, leading her to announce she was “withdrawing from public life” as a writer.

“I’ve given up writing children’s books after being vilified by trans activists,” Rooney stated in the interview, describing the “traumatic cancellation” that followed her daring to speak up for children and women’s rights.

You can’t tell a child their body is wonderful while also encouraging them to believe they are the opposite sex.
It’s not rocket science.
I have a signed copy of My Body is Me! to give away – just put a ❤️ below ⬇️ & I’ll contact the winner by DM.
*UK ONLY* pic.twitter.com/iayawMBZkv

— Rachel Rooney (@RooneyRachel) February 9, 2024

The report notes that her publisher distanced itself, events were canceled, and the Society of Authors—supposed to defend writers—faced criticism for failing to support members against such cancel culture. Rooney’s experience echoes broader attacks on authors like J.K. Rowling, where expressing that sex is binary invites mob fury.

This is the book that led to @RooneyRachel losing her career in children’s publishing: a joyful, inclusive book encouraging children to feel at home in their bodies.

You can buy it here:
3/https://t.co/2HIv9ygg86 pic.twitter.com/cI46FipWD9

— TransgenderTrend (@Transgendertrd) September 5, 2024

Rooney told The Telegraph, “It is an inclusive and life-affirming book. I knew I’d probably get a little bit of stick for it, but I had no idea of what I would actually get. No idea.”

Children’s author hounded by other children’s authors because she’s against the unnecessary medicalisation of kids.

This is her charming book for 3-y year olds “My Body Is Me” https://t.co/JLNFJz8Oaj pic.twitter.com/VpDgCNaGYV

— 💚🤍💜Hoardosaurus 💚🤍💜 (@coccinellanovem) January 14, 2026

Rooney adds, “I expected the activists to attack me, but I didn’t expect it from the people I worked with. I noticed when publishers and other people in the industry who used to follow me [on social media] suddenly blocked me. It only takes one person in an organisation. I received an email from my publisher by mistake to another member of staff, apologising that my views had upset them. The activists were being pandered to because they caused trouble.”

Here is the full text of My Body is Me!
All 284 (some repeating) words of it.
Let me know if you have any issues with the message. pic.twitter.com/HTYQlgidj8

— Rachel Rooney (@RooneyRachel) November 21, 2021

A huge thanks to Jessica Ahlberg for her input, illustrations & bravery putting her name to the book #MyBodyisMe. Her illustrations of children are so warm and they’re such familiar characters, you keep spotting new little details every time you look. https://t.co/xY3QlGs55F pic.twitter.com/MGrNpRKjs8

— TransgenderTrend (@Transgendertrd) December 11, 2020

There has been a broader surge in ‘children’s books’ that tie into this indoctrination trend. Parents have called it “psychological warfare” on kids, while LGB Alliance CEO Kate Barker has labeled it “grooming in plain sight” and an “egregious safeguarding failure.”

One parent shocked by the display highlighted in the report above regarding the museum display said, “Kids should not tolerate grown men in the nude around them,” noting how such books normalize inappropriate themes under the rainbow flag. Shadow equalities secretary Claire Coutinho added, “It is madness that the children’s section… allows them to read about what it means to be ‘polyamorous’ or ‘pansexual’.”

The indoctrination also extended to children’s television programming. In excess of 650 families have charged that the BBC is providing a “constant drip-feed” of biased content promoting trans lifestyles in shows like Hey Duggee, which features “they/them” pronouns. A Bayswater Support Group spokesman warned, “The constant stream of propaganda about gender and trans activism the BBC has transmitted has played a significant role in creating a dangerous culture for children.”

The letter to Ofcom accused the broadcaster of leading “non-conforming children… to believe simplistic identity labels and extreme medical interventions can resolve complex feelings,” resulting in “a generation of teens and young adults who have come to severe harm.” The BBC’s defense? They’ve “updated the news style guide,” but parents see it as too little, too late.

Netflix children’s programming has also come under scrutiny for the same reasons.

.@Netflix is shamelessly distorting what it means to be gay.

Here is Barney Guttman, of Netfix’s animated series for children, ‘Dead End’.

Apparently Barney is a “trans boy” (we all know that really means female) who has a boyfriend, Logan.https://t.co/8bS3WZeKKH pic.twitter.com/O7QNGEC2Jx

— gender is harmful (@genderisharmful) January 25, 2026

OMG. Dead End Paranormal Park, a show on Netflix, is pushing pro-transgender on CHILDREN.

This show is advertised for 7-YEAR-OLDS

It’s being promoted on @netflix kids now.

Parents- BEWARE pic.twitter.com/gh5UZftKns

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) September 29, 2025

Netflix’s new children’s cartoon ‘Nimona’ features pro-trans messaging and follows the journey of an LGBTQI+ character who has been dubbed a ‘sadistic little shapeshifter’ by Rolling Stone magazine.

The shapeshifting character is a reference to being trans or non-binary… pic.twitter.com/XsR3dSFF9S

— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) August 17, 2023

https://t.co/m5qVf3JB48
Netflix Stocks Take Biggest Weekly Drop Since April as Trans Content Aimed at Children Drive Users Away

— woundsrus (@woundsrus19) October 6, 2025

WTF. This is a scene from a movie on @Netflix called “Strawberry Shortcake and the Beast of Berry Bog”

It promotes boys crossdressing as girls to “express” themselves.

This show is recommended for CHILDREN of ALL AGES.

CANCEL NETFLIX pic.twitter.com/4i0gssvBSQ

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) October 1, 2025

Watch @HawleyMO GRILL Netflix CEO over the massive amount of children’s content pushing gender ideology on their platform.

According to a recent study by @CWforA, over 41% of children’s shows on Netflix contain LGBTQ content.pic.twitter.com/J3CQSXlG2q

— Gays Against Groomers (@againstgrmrs) February 4, 2026

As we previously highlighted, the UK government now allows primary school children to socially transition with pronoun changes, despite warnings from experts like Helen Joyce that schools have been “indoctrinating children” with trans ideology for years. Joyce emphasized, “no child can change sex,” and called for de-radicalizing teachers influenced by groups like Stonewall.

Lobbyists continually push for gender-neutral bathrooms and non-disclosure to parents, undermining family rights. “Social transitioning in primary schools should happen very rarely,” the guidance claims, yet it still permits kids as young as four to “change their gender and adopt different pronouns.” Critics like Maya Forstater blasted it as “a dangerous fairytale.”

All of this is ongoing despite the UK Supreme Court’s 2025 decision that legal sex is based on birth biology.

Rachel Rooney’s ordeal underscores the chilling effect of this ideology on creative freedom. Trans activists’ tactics—smearing dissenters as bigots—stifle debate and harm the very children they claim to protect.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

More than one in three adults is obese in most U.S. states, according to the latest CDC data. In several Southern states, the rate now exceeds 40%.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, shows the percentage of adults with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher across all 50 states and U.S. territories.

The Highest Obesity Rates Are Concentrated in the South

West Virginia tops the list, with 41.4% of adults classified as obese. Mississippi follow at 40.4%, while Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee each report rates of roughly 39%.

Rank
State or Territory
Adult Obesity Rate (2024)
1
West Virginia
41.4%
2
Mississippi
40.4%
3
Guam
40.2%
4
Louisiana
39.2%
5
Tennessee*
38.9%
6
Alabama
38.9%
7
Arkansas
38.9%
8
Indiana
38.4%
9
Virgin Islands
37.7%
10
Kansas
37.6%
11
Nebraska
37.6%
12
Wisconsin
37.4%
13
Kentucky
37.2%
14
South Dakota
37.0%
15
Ohio
36.9%
16
North Dakota
36.8%
17
Oklahoma
36.8%
18
Delaware
36.6%
19
Iowa
36.6%
20
Puerto Rico
36.2%
21
Michigan
36.1%
22
Texas
35.6%
23
Georgia
35.4%
24
Missouri
34.6%
25
South Carolina
34.6%
26
New Mexico
34.5%
27
North Carolina
34.5%
28
Illinois
34.2%
29
Nevada
34.2%
30
Pennsylvania
34.2%
31
Alaska
34.0%
32
Oregon
33.5%
33
Arizona
33.3%
34
Maine
33.2%
35
Idaho
32.7%
36
Maryland
32.7%
37
Wyoming
32.5%
38
Minnesota
32.3%
39
Virginia
32.3%
40
Connecticut
32.0%
41
Washington
31.5%
42
New Hampshire
31.1%
43
Rhode Island
31.1%
44
Montana
31.0%
45
Utah
31.0%
46
Florida
29.6%
47
New York
29.5%
48
California
29.1%
49
Vermont
29.0%
50
New Jersey
27.7%
51
Hawaii
27.0%
52
Massachusetts
27.0%
53
District of Columbia
25.5%
54
Colorado
25.0%
—
🇺🇸 U.S. State and Territory Average
34.1%

*Note: Data for Tennessee is from 2022.

Much of the Southeast and parts of Appalachia cluster near the top of the rankings. These regions have historically faced higher poverty rates, limited healthcare access, and lower levels of physical activity. Diet patterns and food accessibility also play a role, particularly in rural communities.

The West and Northeast Report Lower Rates

Colorado stands out with the lowest adult obesity rate at 25%, followed by the District of Columbia at 25.5%. Hawaii and Massachusetts both come in at 27%, while New Jersey posts 27.7%.

Western states tend to report lower rates overall, with many in the low 30% range. Higher levels of outdoor recreation, urban density, and public health initiatives may contribute to these comparatively lower figures.

Nearly Every State Is Above 30%

A striking pattern emerges from the data: obesity is widespread across the country. Aside from a handful of states and jurisdictions, most report rates of 30% or higher.

Midwestern states such as Ohio (36.9%), Wisconsin (37.4%), and Indiana (38.4%) also report elevated rates.

Rising obesity rates are closely tied to increased healthcare costs and higher risks of conditions like diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers.

To learn more about healthcare, check out this graphic on America’s most common drugs.

New data from Anthropic reveals where its Claude AI chatbot is gaining the most traction worldwide.

While Israel tops the overall ranking, the United States leads among countries with at least 10,000 Claude conversations, scoring 3.69x on the index.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Tasmin Lockwood, maps which countries use it the most relative to their working-age population, according to the Anthropic AI Usage Index.

Where Claude Usage Is Highest by Country

Dive into the data below, which was collected across 116 countries in the week of Nov 13-20, 2025.

Each score represents usage relative to what would be expected based on a country’s working-age population.

Rank
 
Index score
1
🇮🇱 Israel
4.90x
2
🇸🇬 Singapore
4.19x
3
🇺🇸 United States
3.69x
4
🇦🇺 Australia
3.27x
5
🇨🇭 Switzerland
3.21x
6
🇨🇦 Canada
3.15x
7
🇰🇷 South Korea
3.12x
8
🇳🇿 New Zealand
3.11x
9
🇱🇺 Luxembourg
3.07x
10
🇪🇪 Estonia
3.05x
11
🇫🇷 France
2.66x
12
🇲🇹 Malta
2.63x
13
🇳🇱 The Netherlands
2.61x
14
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
2.59x
15
🇳🇴 Norway
2.43x
16
🇮🇪 Ireland
2.39x
17
🇸🇪 Sweden
2.29x
18
🇵🇹 Portugal
2.23x
19
🇧🇪 Belgium
2.17x
20
🇬🇪 Georgia
2.17x
21
🇨🇾 Cyprus
2.15x
22
🇩🇰 Denmark
2.10x
23
🇱🇹 Lithuania
2.09x
24
🇫🇮 Finland
1.95x
25
🇱🇻 Latvia
1.92x
26
🇦🇹 Austria
1.88x
27
🇸🇮 Slovenia
1.85x
28
🇩🇪 Germany
1.79x
29
🇹🇼 Taiwan
1.77x
30
🇪🇸 Spain
1.62x
31
🇮🇹 Italy
1.62x
32
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates
1.61x
33
🇯🇵 Japan
1.59x
34
🇨🇿 Czechia
1.54x
35
🇲🇩 Moldova
1.47x
36
🇵🇱 Poland
1.41x
37
🇶🇦 Qatar
1.39x
38
🇧🇬 Bulgaria
1.33x
39
🇭🇷 Croatia
1.31x
40
🇷🇸 Serbia
1.24x
41
🇲🇺 Mauritius
1.24x
42
🇬🇷 Greece
1.21x
43
🇵🇪 Peru
1.19x
44
🇹🇳 Tunisia
1.14x
45
🇨🇷 Costa Rica
1.12x
46
🇺🇾 Uruguay
1.10x
47
🇺🇦 Ukraine
1.09x
48
🇸🇰 Slovakia
1.08x
49
🇲🇰 North Macedonia
1.08x
50
🇪🇨 Ecuador
1.05x
51
🇨🇱 Chile
1.04x
52
🇭🇺 Hungary
0.98x
53
🇷🇴 Romania
0.98x
54
🇦🇲 Armenia
0.97x
55
🇵🇦 Panama
0.95x
56
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago
0.93x
57
🇵🇷 Puerto Rico
0.92x
58
🇨🇴 Colombia
0.88x
59
🇧🇭 Bahrain
0.85x
60
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka
0.82x
61
🇱🇧 Lebanon
0.78x
62
🇲🇦 Morocco
0.76x
63
🇦🇷 Argentina
0.75x
64
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic
0.74x
65
🇧🇴 Bolivia
0.71x
66
🇧🇷 Brazil
0.70x
67
🇦🇱 Albania
0.68x
68
🇲🇾 Malaysia
0.66x
69
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.60x
70
🇹🇭 Thailand
0.59x
71
🇯🇲 Jamaica
0.56x
72
🇹🇷 Turkey
0.56x
73
🇻🇳 Vietnam
0.56x
74
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan
0.56x
75
🇮🇩 Indonesia
0.48x
76
🇵🇭 Philippines
0.48x
77
🇵🇾 Paraguay
0.47x
78
🇸🇻 El Salvador
0.47x
79
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
0.45x
80
🇲🇽 Mexico
0.44x
81
🇮🇶 Iraq
0.43x
82
🇰🇪 Kenya
0.43x
83
🇿🇦 South Africa
0.38x
84
🇯🇴 Jordan
0.37x
85
🇰🇼 Kuwait
0.37x
86
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan
0.35x
87
🇴🇲 Oman
0.35x
88
🇩🇿 Algeria
0.34x
89
🇵🇸 Palestinian Territory
0.32x
90
🇳🇵 Nepal
0.32x
91
🇷🇼 Rwanda
0.30x
92
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan
0.29x
93
🇪🇬 Egypt
0.28x
94
🇬🇭 Ghana
0.27x
95
🇸🇳 Senegal
0.27x
96
🇬🇹 Guatemala
0.26x
97
🇧🇯 Benin
0.25x
98
🇨🇲 Cameroon
0.23x
99
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
0.23x
100
🇵🇰 Pakistan
0.22x
101
🇮🇳 India
0.22x
102
🇳🇬 Nigeria
0.22x
103
🇭🇳 Honduras
0.21x
104
🇱🇦 Laos
0.20x
105
🇰🇭 Cambodia
0.19x
106
🇹🇬 Togo
0.17x
107
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe
0.15x
108
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
0.13x
109
🇲🇬 Madagascar
0.13x
110
🇿🇲 Zambia
0.11x
111
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso
0.10x
112
🇧🇩 Bangladesh
0.09x
113
🇺🇬 Uganda
0.09x
114
🇲🇿 Mozambique
0.07x
115
🇦🇴 Angola
0.05x
116
🇹🇿 Tanzania
0.03x

Israel topped the Anthropic AI Usage Index at 4.9x, putting it well ahead of other countries. Israel has been labeled the “Start-up Nation” since a book of the same name charted its rapid growth and technological innovation.

Singapore has the second-highest uptake at 4.19x. The small city-state also performed well on last year’s Global Innovation Index, which ranks countries on research and entrepreneurship.

Because the index measures usage relative to workforce size, smaller tech-driven economies can rank highly even if their overall user base is smaller.

However, among countries with at least 10,000 conversations, the United States leads at 3.69x. It also dominates in share of actual usage, though raw usage numbers don’t necessarily equate to broad penetration, given that countries with larger populations would naturally rank higher.

Brazil ranks among the largest users of Claude in raw terms, but its score drops to 0.7x when adjusted for workforce size, showing how population size can inflate raw usage totals.

Asia fares well overall, as South Korea ranks among the top adopters per capita at 3.12x. Australia, Canada, and New Zealand occupy other top spots at 3.27x, 3.15x, and 3.11x respectively.

Most of the highest-ranking countries are in North America, Europe, Oceania, and parts of East Asia.

Malta and Georgia also made the top 20, with scores of 2.8x and 2.17x. Malta consistently punches above its weight as a European startup hub, despite being a tiny island in the Mediterranean, while efforts are underway to institutionalize AI use in Georgia.

At the bottom of the index were Tanzania and Angola, at 0.03x and 0.05x respectively.

Some smaller countries were not included due to an insufficient number of conversations over the observation period.

Uses For AI Vary

Claude usage also varies depending on economic conditions. In lower-income countries, the chatbot is commonly used for homework help and programming tasks, while wealthier countries show a broader mix of professional uses.

The dynamic could also reflect the ages of those using chatbots in different countries. In lower-income areas, there may be higher uptake among students.

To learn more about how AI, check out this graphic which charts the rise of AI chatbots.