The UK Home Office has barred Kanye West (aka Ye) from entering the country, ruling that his presence “would not be conducive to the public good.” The decision, made hours after he received an initial Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) on Monday, has triggered the immediate and complete cancellation of Wireless Festival, where he was set to headline all three nights in July at Finsbury Park.

“The Home Office has withdrawn Ye’s ETA, denying him entry into the United Kingdom. As a result, Wireless festival is cancelled and refunds will be issued to all ticket holders, said the promoter, Festival Republic. 

Kanye West’s Response

In a statement released shortly after the ban was announced, West offered to meet members of the UK’s Jewish community directly. 

“If you’re open, I’m here… I will show change through my actions.”

He added that he acknowledged “words alone are not enough” and hoped the meeting could begin a conversation.

And of course, the whole thing was a fiasco before the ban – with Festival Republic managing director Melvin Benn issuing a lengthy and unusually candid statement defending the booking. He described himself as “a deeply committed anti-fascist” who had lived on a kibbutz in Israel in the 1970s (one of the communities later attacked on 7 October). He also referenced having close family members with mental illness and appealed for understanding:

“Forgiveness and giving people a second chance are becoming a lost virtue in this ever-increasing divisive world and I would ask people to reflect on their instant comments of disgust at the likelihood of him performing (as was mine) and offer some forgiveness and hope to him as I have decided to do.”

…

“We are not giving him a platform to extol opinion of whatever nature, only to perform the songs that are currently played on the radio stations in our country and the streaming platforms in our country and listened to and enjoyed by millions… Ye’s music is played on commercial radio stations in this country. It is available via live streams and downloads in this country without comment or vitriol from anyone and he has a legal right to come into the country and to perform in this country.”

We’re guessing the few million £ in profit Festival Republic was set to make was also a factor. 

West is currently in the midst of his 2026 “Bully” tour, having just completed two sold-out shows at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on 1 and 3 April. The performances marked his first major U.S. concerts in five years and featured what fans and critics have widely described as a mind-blowing stage set: a towering, 50-foot rotating globe designed as a replica of Earth, on top of which West performed amid dramatic smoke, lasers, fireworks and immersive projections that turned the entire stadium into a planetary spectacle.

Kanye just sold-out two nights at SoFi.

Fans are calling it the greatest concert of all time.pic.twitter.com/kCAGNhMp6A https://t.co/skGXzq0SKT

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 5, 2026

Ye had 80,000 people singing “Heartless” with him at SoFi Stadium 🤯

“That’s what 80,000 people sound like ladies and gentlemen… they said I’d never be back in the states. Two sold-out concerts.” pic.twitter.com/pgIL9sSVph

— Kurrco (@Kurrco) April 4, 2026

The production, created in collaboration with his longtime creative team, has been hailed as one of the most ambitious and visually striking in recent concert history, drawing comparisons to theme-park-level immersion and underscoring the scale of spectacle West continues to deliver despite the controversies surrounding him.

Political and Community Reaction

The announcement of West as headliner had already sparked intense backlash. Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the booking “deeply concerning” given West’s “previous antisemitic remarks and celebration of Nazism.” Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson described the remarks as “completely unacceptable and absolutely disgusting,” while Health Secretary Wes Streeting said West “should not be allowed to headline.”

Phil Rosenberg, President of the Board of Deputies of British Jews, had a fit over West’s appearance before the ban was announced:

“It has been less than a year since Kanye West released a song entitled Heil Hitler, the culmination of three years of appalling antisemitism. He also made a number of deeply offensive comments about the black community, saying that the 400-year experience of slavery was ‘like a choice’. Even while claiming remorse today, his latest album includes a track first released last year with the abhorrent title Gas Chamber.”

According to The Home Office acted under standard immigration powers after a rapid review. West’s history includes public admiration for Adolf Hitler, a song titled “Heil Hitler,” swastika-themed merchandise, and tracks such as “Gas Chamber.” This would have been his first major UK live appearance in more than a decade (his last headline slot was Glastonbury 2015).

Several major sponsors, including Pepsi, Diageo, Rockstar Energy and PayPal, had already withdrawn support in the days leading up to the ban.

The cancellation has created a major gap in the UK summer festival calendar and reignited broader debates about artistic freedom, public safety, combating hate speech, and second chances for public figures. Downing Street reiterated that entry decisions are made case-by-case “but where individuals pose a threat to public safety or seek to spread extremism, the government has not hesitated to act.”

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

After failing to win Congress and the presidency in 2024, the Democrats conducted an internal postmortem of what went wrong.

While they predictably did not divulge the full results, everyone knew what they had found.

Their obsessions with the low side of 30/70 issues had especially alienated Democrats from white middle- and working-class voters. Yet middle-class whites still comprise about 40–50 percent of the population and are perhaps overrepresented in voter turnout.

Democrats realize that their fixations on biological males competing in women’s sports, open borders and millions of illegal entries, radical green agendas, DEI-driven racial essentialism, and massive government entitlements rife with fraud have alienated the middle classes in general and white middle- and working-class voters in particular.

But since Democrat ideologues cannot shed their ideological straitjackets, they have instead tried to finesse the very problem that cost them the 2024 election.

They recall, in particular, the successful blueprint that won them the 2020 election. During that campaign, Joe Biden largely remained out of public view, hiding in his basement, while his handlers reconstructed him as a kind of waxen effigy of “good ol’ Joe from Scranton,” a throwback to the 1970s.

Once the cognitively diminished Biden was elected, his hard-left, Obama-era operatives behind that ossified, working-man veneer enacted the most radical four-year agenda in modern American history.

On the one hand, Democrats claim they will field candidates who can at least playact as good ol’ boy farmers and salt-of-the-earth welders.

The 2024 Democratic vice presidential candidate, Humpty Dumpty lookalike Tim Walz, talked incessantly about driving a pickup truck. He assured us he could change its oil and tried to portray himself as a genuine hunter. Yet these claims often came across as inauthentic, strained, and condescending; the more Walz tried to present himself as a man of the people, the more he appeared buffoonish.

The 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, Pete Buttigieg, became a caricature of the sanctimonious, credentialed technocrat—self-righteously and arrogantly projecting expertise without much humility or even a shred of the common touch. As transportation secretary, Buttigieg used to pontificate about racist freeway clover leaves, rather than addressing the more immediate problems posed by the gridlocked and decrepit condition of the nation’s highways.

Now, as the 2028 election looms, Buttigieg has followed Democratic central casting and undergone a complete reboot, reemerging with a beard, a trucker cap, and a flannel shirt.

No matter, he still sounds as pedantic as ever in his riff on green energy and “diversity.”

Wannabe president and lame-duck California governor Gavin Newsom is also suddenly reinventing himself. He is now surrealistically claiming that, as the son of an appellate court judge, and raised as an intimate of the billionaire Getty family, that he scarcely survived on Wonder Bread and macaroni, was disabled by dyslexia, and struggled in a broken home typical of the poor white working classes.

To win back the white working class this time around, Democratic insiders are apparently not content merely to recycle—or astroturf—familiar, anemic candidates into veritable Obama-era “clingers.”

Now they are seeking out brand new faces to present as supposedly more authentic white working men. They believe that they have at last found the real thing in traditionally red Texas state legislator and Presbyterian minister James Talarico.

He talks nonstop like a left-winger, but with the voice of an evangelical Bible thumper. Talarico just won the Texas Democratic Senate primary over radical, racialist bomb thrower Jasmine Crockett. Surely, his handlers believe, he will do the impossible and flip the good old boys of Texas to the new Democratic agenda?

He may yet, but the Harvard-educated Talarico’s Christianity seems more like Latin American left-wing “liberation theology” than Texas-style evangelicalism. Talarico certainly has a long history of radical elite social media commentary, and he urges Texans not to demonize trans people and illegal aliens but instead go after “billionaires and their puppet politicians.”

Perhaps such class warfare is seen as a good start for the Left’s new, supposedly working-man’s radical populist. But it turns out Pastor Talarico is actually to the left of radical left Democrats. In the past, he had pandered to the very wing of the party that had lost its elections, with offerings like “God is non-binary” or notions that Christians have divine guidance to let transgender males play in women’s sports.

But the damning pièce de résistance of this supposedly authentic, blue-collar, white evangelical preacher was a previous post from Talarico: “Radicalized white men are the greatest domestic terrorist threat in our country.”

Democrat politicos and handlers also perhaps thought they had finally found the real thing in current Maine Senate primary candidate Graham Platner. Despite growing up in affluence and attending the tony Hotchkiss preparatory school, Platner’s makeover seemed far more genuine.

Indeed, The Washington Post gushed about him, saying he was “a rugged guy,” while Politico bragged that at last Democrats had found a MAGA everyman but—better yet—to the left of Bernie Sanders.

Platner joined the Marines, saw combat tours, and was variously a bartender and oysterman. But Platner may have gone a bit too far to serve as the Democrats’ new white working-class poster boy.

It was recently revealed that he had been tattooed with a skull that was the exact insignia of the SS-Totenkopfverbände (“Death’s Head Units”). These particular SS units were the worst of the worst of the psychopathic paramilitary organizations of Hitler’s Third Reich, often having been chosen to serve as guards in Nazi extermination camps.

Platner’s past social media postings didn’t help his often-lame excuses for the tattoo—although he knew as a leftist he would survive the brouhaha, given the antisemitic saturation of the new Democrat Party, and the exemptions provided to the “right people.” Indeed, he trumped Talarico’s disdain for the very demographic he was supposed to sew up, with the revelation that he had once described white rural Americans as “racists and stupid” while claiming that he was a communist and calling for armed resistance.

The reason why these white working-class veneers will likely not work is not just that they are strained facades, designed to make palatable an otherwise unpalatable agenda to Middle America.

They also ring untrue because the white working class has been so demonized by the Left that it will likely never return to the Democratic Party.

Consider just the pejoratives that Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden have employed to stereotype and ridicule Trump supporters and the social-economical-rural environment that supposedly produced them: clingers, deplorables, irredeemables, dregs, chumps, semi-fascists, and garbage.

In other words, the hatred of and the condescension toward the white working class is baked into the new bicoastal and elitist Left and Democratic Party. It cannot be finessed or masked—as the postings of even their supposedly new working-class heroes attest.

Just recently, liberal comedian Jimmy Kimmel went off on the new Homeland Security Secretary, former Oklahoma senator Markwayne Mullin, blasting him as a mere “plumber”: “We have a plumber protecting us from terrorism now. It worked for Super Mario. Why not Markwayne?”

Aside from the fact that plumbers are among the most skilled and important of all the critical tradesmen, plumbing was just one chapter in Mullin’s rich and varied career. He has an impressive record as a former ten-year congressman and a U.S. senator. He also helped turn his family business into one of the largest plumbing supply services in Oklahoma. But to Kimmel, all that was condensed to being a “plumber,” as if his left-wing audience would likewise see a plumber reaching the highest levels of government as a joke.

The View cohost Joy Behar just trashed Trump by claiming his supporters (half the country) were “poorly educated”—an odd thing to say when her liberal cohost, Whoopi Goldberg, is a high school dropout.

While it is true that leftist news and commentary outlets have greater percentages of college graduates in their audiences, that fact hardly translates into them being better-informed listeners.

Some polls, like the 2021 Heartland Institute’s survey, showed that the conservative talk radio followers, on average, were better at answering factual questions about politics than their leftist counterparts. That sounds reasonable given the current epidemic of campus grade inflation, nonmeritocratic admissions, therapeutic curricula, and the ubiquity of off-topic, left-wing faculty propagandists on campus.

In truth, the new radical left-wing Democratic Party is an elitist entity with a poorly disguised contempt for the white working class. That hatred is omnipresent and so emerges in the most unexpected fashion.

Remember the private text exchanges between disgraced FBI paramours Lisa Page and Peter Strzok, in which Trump voters were casually caricatured as Walmart shoppers defined by their supposed stench?

Or recall CNN reporter Marc Caputo’s snide jab at Trump rally attendees: “If you put everyone’s mouths together in this video, you’d get a full set of teeth.”

The locus classicus target of this bias was the vice-presidential candidacy of Sarah Palin, who, throughout the 2008 campaign, was smeared by leftists as “poor white trash.”

To New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, Palin was nothing more than a “gun-toting hockey mom.” Talk show host David Letterman joked that Palin had bought makeup from Bloomingdale’s to update her “slutty flight attendant look.” The smug Letterman then added, “One awkward moment for Sarah Palin at the Yankee game, during the seventh inning, her daughter was knocked up by Alex Rodriguez.” Palin’s daughter Willow was 14 years old at the time.

The Left simply does not get it, or rather, has it backward. You do not need to look or act like the white working class to feel genuine affinity with it. Billionaire and former Manhattanite Donald Trump is proof enough of that.

The key is not whether you wear a suit or a trucker’s hat or grow a beard, but whether you show sincere concern for an often now-demonized demographic long written off by coastal elites as losers during globalization’s heyday.

So far, the smugness and lack of any such genuine empathy will doom the latest silly Democrat gambit. Sincerity cannot be finessed with tattoos, beards, or trucker caps—not by the media or Hollywood, and certainly not by the likes of Pete Buttigieg, Tim Walz, or James Talarico.

While the monthly jobs report has become a veritable economic random number generator, with every monthly print coming either well below or above the forecast stack, the weekly initial claims report has become its foil – a study in boring reporting, with numbers barely budging week to week, and usually falling right on top of Wall Street estimates. A similar dynamic is emerging for the monthly consumer credit report: following a volatile 2025, when revolving credit swung around wildly in unexpected ways dragging the broader print with it, the last few months have been surprisingly steady, printing right around the consensus expectations with barely any volatility.

The latest, February, report published minutes ago by the Fed was no surprise: with expectations for a modest increase from last month’s $8.05 billion to $10.25 billion, the reported number was just shy of the estimate, printing $9.484 billion, up from a downward revised $7.665 billion.

Revolving credit rose a modest $709 million – the weakest monthly increase since November – to $1.328 trillion, the highest since November 2024. 

Non-revolving credit (student and auto loans) rose a more substantial $9.2 billion to a record $3.789 trillion.

Broken down by its two core components, Student Loans were $1.838 trillion as of Dec 2025, up $5.4 billion for the quarter, while Auto Loans rose a modest $1.5 billion to $1.562 trillion.

Finally, and this may come as a surprise, following 1.75% in rate cuts by the Fed since September 2024, a move which did nothing for the average rates on credit card accounts through Dec 31, 2025, there was finally a notable drop in the average credit card interest rate, which dropped to 21.52% on March 31, 2026 down from 22.30% three months ago. It appears that all the noise surrounding exorbitant credit card rates in recent months is starting to have an impact. 

An Iran-backed militia in Iraq has announced it will release an American freelance journalist kidnapped in Baghdad a week ago. Shelly Kittleson was abducted on March 31, and her captors in Kataib Hezbollah announced Tuesday that she can go free as long as she exits Iraq immediately.

Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, a security official in the group, has been cited in international reports as saying, “In recognition of the national stances of the outgoing prime minister, we have decided to release the American defendant Shelly Kittleson.”

Image source: Wausau Pilot & Review

This constitutes direct confirmation that the group is indeed responsible for her kidnapping, which happened after weeks of the US-Israeli attacks in Iran.

At the time of the 49-year-old’’ abduction, Iraqi authorities said security forces pursued the suspects, resulting in one of the kidnappers’ vehicles overturning and one arrest.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani days ago intensified the search, ordering security forces to track down those responsible for abducting foreigners.

Kataib Hezbollah has claimed that it has a recording it is ready to release, supposedly showing Kittleson’s “role and activities in Iraq” – and at least one such video while in captivity has appeared.

In the past when Westerners or Israelis have been abducted in Iraq, they are typically accused of spying on behalf of foreign governments.

The NY Times says she has gone free, after an exchange:

Ms. Kittleson, who has reported on the Middle East for more than a decade for various outlets, was set free in exchange for the release of several imprisoned Kataib Hezbollah members, according to the two Iraqi security officials. They asked not to be identified in order to discuss sensitive negotiations.

AMERICAN JOURNALIST KIDNAPPED IN BAGHDAD

Rapid Report footage/Iraq Interior Ministry confirms Shelly Kittleson abducted pic.twitter.com/XzdPkEHT0s

— SilencedSirs◼️ (@SilentlySirs) March 31, 2026

Starting in March the State Department urged all Americans to leave the country immediately, after which the US Embassy in Baghdad came under repeat drone fire. Other US sites, as well as oil facilities, have come under fire either from Iran or its allied groups in Iraq.

Antares Nuclear reached the most significant regulatory milestone to date for a microreactor. The company announced that its Mark-0 reactor became the first advanced reactor to receive Department of Energy approval for a Documented Safety Analysis under the new DOE-STD-1271. 

DSA approved. ✅

Antares is the first advanced reactor to receive DOE approval of a Documented Safety Analysis under DOE-STD-1271.

Our Mark-0 reactor now moves to Readiness Review.

Onward. pic.twitter.com/DovqJsVVwz

— Antares (@AntaresNuclear) April 6, 2026

The company will now proceed with preparations for taking the reactor critical for the first time. This includes forming a joint test group to oversee the startup planning and execution. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright holds permission for starting up the reactor as the Startup Approval Authority. 

Bob Boston, manager of the DOE Idaho Operations Office, granted the approval of the DSA on Monday afternoon and clarified “The Department of Energy DSA is equivalent to an NRC license”.

We have closely tracked Antares and other reactor developers in the rapidly advancing microreactor race. The company’s R1 design is a sodium heat pipe cooled microreactor engineered to provide up to one megawatt of flexible, carbon-free power. It targets applications including remote communities and military installations where conventional power infrastructure is limited. BWXT is completing TRISO fuel fabrication for the pilot with a planned criticality date before July 4th.

The company stands out as an early leader in securing formal safety analysis approval ahead of other contenders such as Radiant, Valar, Aalo Atomics, and Oklo.

This development occurs just after we highlighted the Department of Energy’s requested $45 billion in nuclear funding for fiscal year 2027, and recent discussions from Jay Yu of Nano Nuclear pointing out nuclear energy’s new spotlight in light of the Iran conflict. 

Today, India takes a defining step in its civil nuclear journey, advancing the second stage of its nuclear programme.

The indigenously designed and built Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalpakkam has attained criticality.

This advanced reactor, capable of producing more fuel…

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) April 6, 2026

In related international news, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India’s 500 megawatt Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalpakkam has attained criticality. The sodium-cooled fast reactor designed by BHAVINI advances the second stage of India’s three-stage nuclear program and brings the country closer to utilizing its large thorium reserves in the final phase.

These advancements in both advanced microreactors and large-scale fast breeder technology reflect growing worldwide interest in expanding reliable clean baseload nuclear capacity.
 

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

It’s not the price of oil per se that triggers recession, it’s the underlying vulnerabilities that have been cloaked with happy story narratives to keep the game going.

Recessions don’t require a spike in the price of oil/gasoline, but spikes in energy prices trigger recessions. This makes sense, as hydrocarbons are the foundation of every industry, from the so-called “green” industries to all the high-tech industries (SpaceX, AI data centers etc.) to transport, plastics and everything else.

Recessions have other causes, of course: the business cycle of over-indebtedness and speculative excesses leading to defaults and the contraction of credit and spending, the collapse of speculative asset bubbles, the inflationary spiral of overborrowing to fund “guns and butter,” and disruptive events such as plagues and wars.

Inflation reduces discretionary income as a larger share of earnings must be devoted to essentials. In a consumer economy, this reduction of discretionary income leads to households borrowing more to fill the widening gap between what they reckon is their rightful lifestyle and the purchasing power of their earnings.

This increase in debt leads to a higher percentage of net earnings being devoted to interest and principal, further reducing discretionary income. The eventual retrenchment–reducing debt by reducing spending and default–leads to a contraction in consumption, i.e. recession.

Recessions occur when a happy story about the economy that doesn’t reflect reality encounters reality. Before recessions, the happy story is always the same: corporate profits are solid and rising, consumer spending is rock-solid, employment is strong, unemployment is low, the household balance sheet is healthy, technology is increasing productivity, and so on.

According to the happy story, a recession is impossible, so borrow and buy, buy, buy–stocks, houses, experiences, cruises, buy it all because the good times are permanent.

The vulnerabilities generated by over-reliance on borrowing to fund spending and the corrosive effects of inflation are buried beneath statistical trickery: add all the wealthy households to the mix and then take the average, and voila: look how rich the average household is. All is well, borrow and buy to your heart’s content. Mix in hedonic adjustments and pixie-dust and voila, 8% inflation is magically reduced to 2.5%.

The suspension of disbelief / confidence is the magic of the happy story narrative. As long as people are complacent and confident, they act on the belief that their income and wealth will continue rising, enabling more borrowing and spending.

That this is not necessarily in their best interests in the long term is what must be hidden, lest they curtail borrowing and spending because the whole point of the economy is to maximize profits and this is only possible if people who don’t earn enough money to spend freely borrow to spend freely.

This is where the other magic in the happy story becomes essential: the wealth effect generated by credit-asset bubbles. If people see their house and stock portfolios rising in value, they feel wealthier and are more confident in borrowing and spending because they have this wealth piling up in the background.

It’s like a savings account that increases without the sacrifice of deferring consumption: in credit-asset bubbles, we get to have our cake and eat it, too.

The problem that must be hidden by the happy story is that excessive debt and speculation are self-liquidating: the machinery that makes them work self-destructs by its very nature. Debt accrues interest which reduces discretionary income which sets up contraction of credit and consumption, and all credit-asset bubbles pop, regardless of the intensity of the propaganda / happy story that this isn’t a bubble, it’s “capitalism” or “technology” or “animal spirits.”

It’s not a specific price point or metric that causes recession: it’s the decay of confidence and discretionary income that leads to recession. Confidence is fragile by its very nature. We’ve been selected to be wary of surplus suddenly becoming scarcity, and rising prices of energy cascading through the entire economy activates a reappraisal of our complacent confidence.

Every business is hammered by rising costs for literally everything they buy to operate, and since the discretionary income of the bottom 80% is already under pressure, they can’t raise prices much without losing sales.

Households feel the pinch of rising utilities and fuel immediately, and for both enterprises and households, confidence in the future is at risk of eroding like a sand castle in a rising tide.

Here is a chart of the average price of gasoline in the US from 1976 to February 2026. I’ve added the recent spike to the current average price of $4.11 / gallon. Interestingly, this is pretty close to the inflation-adjusted price of gasoline in the 1973-74 Gas Crisis, and the nominal price in July 2008. Adjusted for inflation, $4.11 in July 2008 is $6.11 in today’s dollars.

The point I want to make here is that there is no price trigger for recession, as it depends on the underlying fragilities and vulnerabilities of the economy. Put another way, it depends on the width of the gap between the happy story narrative intended to keep confidence and complacency high and the realities of higher costs and rising debt service reducing discretionary income.

Credit-asset bubbles pop for many reasons, but what we experience is a collapse of confidence that the bubble will continue inflating, making us richer every day, in every way. The core fragility of today’s economy is the expansion of consumption now depends on the spending of the top 10%, who just so happen to own the lion’s share of income-producing assets such as real estate, stocks, corporate bonds and enterprises.

Once the Everything Bubble pops, the confidence of the top earners and spenders will collapse, leading to a decline in their borrowing and spending.

Oil doesn’t need to hit $147/barrel and gasoline doesn’t need to reach $6/gallon to trigger a recession. (Gasoline is over $6/gallon in California and over $5/gallon in states with high fuel taxes.) There is no specific price-point, any more than there is some specific metric that enables us to predict an avalanche. It all depends on the underlying vulnerabilities and excesses of the economy at that moment in time.

When he’s confident, Wile can walk on air. It’s when he suddenly discerns reality that his confidence vanishes. Recessions always catch conventional economists by surprise because the collapse of confidence triggers a sudden rise in unemployment and defaults and a sharp decline of credit and spending.

It’s not the price of oil per se that causes a recession, it’s the underlying vulnerabilities that have been cloaked with happy story narratives to keep the game going.

*  *  *

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For weeks, we mapped out for readers how the Gulf energy shock dominoes would fall, spreading outward from the Middle East and striking Asia first through tightened energy-product flows that risk destabilizing the global economy. That transmission of tightening energy flows is now becoming alarmingly visible on factory floors across Asia.

Goldman analysts, led by Georgina Fraser, warned clients on Monday that the petrochemical shock is worsening across Asia, with textile and packaging plants emerging as the first major downstream casualties.

“The supply shock is transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude than we had anticipated,” Fraser emphasized in the note. 

She said the supply shock is moving beyond higher energy prices into production cuts, margin compression, and early demand destruction, adding that “signals are materializing fastest, with textiles and packaging among the first downstream sectors affected.”

Impact chain on the Chemicals sector from the Middle East conflict

Last week, supply chain disruptions in critical plastic feedstocks began to emerge, with several producers of monoethylene glycol (MEG) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) declaring force majeure, while tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily disrupted. These feedstocks are essential in the production of plastics, the very material that is core to the modern economy.

Fraser noted that China’s PTA supply chain accounts for roughly three-quarters of global PTA capacity. She said spot PTA prices have jumped by more than 30% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began.

At the same time, about 15% of China’s PTA capacity and 11% of global capacity have been taken offline due to shutdowns and curtailments.

For context, MEG and PTA are the two primary feedstocks used to produce polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyester fibers. These petrochemicals are essential to the production of everyday consumer goods that make life in the developed world convenient, including plastic bottles, food packaging, clothing, home furnishings, and a wide range of consumer and industrial goods.

The analyst then shifted focus to India, where she said the first signs of a petrochemical supply shock are already emerging: In Surat, the country’s main synthetic textile hub, producers have reduced operations to a single 12-hour shift, halving output as soaring plastics costs collide with weak demand.

She noted that for apparel and textiles, where petrochemical-linked inputs account for 50% to 65% of the cost of goods sold, the latest moves in raw material spot prices imply a 17% COGS shock, enough to idle less efficient plants.

Packaging is also at risk. While demand is lower for discretionary goods than for clothing, elevated price pressures in PTA and related petrochemicals threaten to spill over into food, beverage, and consumer goods packaging, increasing the odds of inflationary pass-through.

Circling back to JPMorgan’s commodity expert on how the energy shock dominoes fall: Asia first (happening now), then Africa and Europe, before settling on the US – primarily California.

Source

“Even an imminent end to the conflict would not fully unwind the supply chain disruption already in motion,” the analyst warned. 

Professional subscribers can read the full “Petrochemical supply shock hits textiles and packaging faster and harder than anticipated” note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. Fraser 

Tucker Carlson has publicly called on White House aides and Pentagon officials to refuse President Donald Trump’s orders if they involve mass attacks on Iranian civilians or the possible use of nuclear weapons, telling them to “say no, absolutely not” directly to the president and, if necessary, to “figure out the codes on the football yourself.” The remarks, made on his popular podcast, come amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and have triggered an immediate backlash from the White House.

Carlson framed the potential escalation as “evil” and a desecration of Christian and Islamic values, specifically criticising Trump’s recent social-media rhetoric urging the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Carlson argued that such actions would mark “the end of the American empire as we understand it” and run directly counter to the “America First” principles Trump campaigned on.

Carlson’s comments come after the US and Israel’s aggressive bombing of Iran, which began with airstrikes earlier this year and has escalated into broader operations aimed at degrading Iranian military infrastructure, chemical-weapons facilities and ballistic-missile capabilities. Trump has repeatedly threatened overwhelming force if Iran does not comply with U.S. demands, while critics inside and outside the administration have questioned the intelligence justifying the campaign and warned of unintended regional fallout.

This intervention is perhaps the most high-profile act of public dissent from within Trump’s former base since the war began – as Carlson explicitly told listeners in direct contact with the president: “Those people who are in direct contact with the President need to say, ‘no, I’ll resign. I’ll do whatever I can do legally to stop this, because this is insane.’” He added that officials should refuse to carry out any nuclear-related order and leave the president to handle the nuclear “football” (the briefcase containing launch codes) himself.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Tucker Carlson says Trump is considering to use NUKES against IRAN

He publicly urges the US military and Pentagon officials to actively defy Donald Trump and refuse orders if he attempts to launch NUCLEAR WEAPONS against Iran pic.twitter.com/NMxbHPrpJm

— Alerte Info (@AlertesInfos_ca) April 7, 2026

Trump responded swiftly, telling the New York Post that Carlson is “a low IQ person that has absolutely no idea what’s going on.” White House officials later clarified that nuclear weapons are “not under consideration.”

Needless to say, the neocons are buzzing.

Do you feel an exciting tingle going up your leg?

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) April 7, 2026

Others Speaking Out

Anti-war voices across the political spectrum have amplified Carlson’s long-running opposition to the Iran war. Independent journalist Glenn Greenwald, who has appeared multiple times on Carlson’s show to discuss the conflict and related free-speech crackdowns, described Tucker’s sustained pushback against endless Middle East wars as “herculean” in late March – noting that Carlson had already “sacrificed his relationship with President Trump” by taking a public stand.

Greenwald has slammed Trump administration’s rapid shift from campaign promises of restraint to “large-scale military destruction, including attacks on infrastructure and natural resources,” arguing that earlier talk of “liberating Iranians” has been replaced by regime-change rhetoric that echoes past neoconservative failures.

Comedian and political commentator Jimmy Dore, a longtime vocal opponent of U.S. interventionism, has used his show in recent weeks to hammer the Iran escalation as a betrayal of Trump’s “no more forever wars” pledges. Dore has linked the conflict to rising domestic costs – particularly gasoline prices – and accused both parties of falling back into the same “war machine” trap that plagued previous administrations. In episodes leading up to Carlson’s remarks, Dore has urged viewers to pressure officials to reject illegal or immoral orders, echoing Carlson’s call for internal resistance.

Dore points out that Iran has been doing some “epic” trolling of Trump with clips that are going absolutely viral.

Libertarian comedian and podcaster Dave Smith – a longtime anti-war voice and frequent guest on Carlson’s show – quickly amplified the moment on X, writing: “I can’t believe how hard Tucker just went at Trump and he is legitimately a modern American hero for doing it.” Smith has been consistently criticising the Iran escalation for weeks, including in his 1 April appearance on The Tucker Carlson Show, where the two discussed Trump’s “critical next move in Iran,” the influence of Mossad and neoconservative hawks, and the unsustainable costs of another Middle East war.

I can’t believe how hard Tucker just went at Trump and he is legitimately a modern American hero for doing it.

— Dave Smith (@ComicDaveSmith) April 7, 2026

And here’s Smith on Tucker from last Tuesday:

* * * Thank you for your support

After several weeks of decidedly ugly auction which saw a notable drop in foreign demand amid what we reported a week ago was rampant selling of US debt by foreign central banks, moments ago the Treasury sold 3Y notes in what may have been the best auction since the start of the war.

Just after 1pm, the US treasury sold $58BN in 3Y notes at a high yield of 3.897%, up sharply from 3.579% a month ago and the highest since last June’s 3.972%. More importantly, the auction stopped through the When Issued 3.909% by 1.2bps, the biggest stop through since Feb 2025 and the 7th stop through in the past 8 auctions.

The bid to cover bounced nicely from last month’s 2.546 to 2.682, the highest since November. 

The internals were even stronger: indirects, or foreign central banks, came back in droves after aggressively selling US paper in recent week, and were allotted 74.8% of the auction – the highest since Sept 2024, and the second highest on record.

And with Directs awarded just 11.9%, the lowest since Sept 2024, Dealers were left holdings 13.3% or roughly in line with the recent average of 12.3%.

Overall this was a blockbuster 3Y auction, and one of the stronger for the tenor on record, although with every push higher in oil moving yields along with it, we doubt that the market cares much about the quality of today’s issuance.

Authored by Dave Mason via The Center Square,

President Donald Trump has endorsed former Fox News anchor Steve Hilton in California’s Republican gubernatorial primary.

Trump picked Hilton over the other prominent GOP candidate – Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is an outspoken Trump supporter.

Sunday night’s endorsement on social media comes as Democrats face the risk of being shut out of the general election for the first time in the Golden State’s history.

Besides the two Republicans, there are eight prominent Democratic candidates. Under California law, the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the June 2 primary, regardless of party affiliation, will face off in the Nov. 3 election. Hilton and Bianco could get more votes if Democrats spread their votes among the eight candidates. 

And a recent University of California, Berkeley poll shows Hilton, a small business owner in addition to being a former commentator, and Bianco are ahead of the Democratic candidates.

According to the poll, Hilton has 17% of the vote, and Bianco, 16%. The leading Democratic candidates are U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell of San Francisco with 14%, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter of Orange County with 13% and billionaire and consumer protection advocate Tom Steyer, who financed the successful campaign to pass congressional redistricting in California, with 10%.

The poll says none of the five remaining prominent Democrats – former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan – has more than 5% of the vote.

Prediction markets see it a different way to the polls…

The Democratic Party is taking the risk seriously, with California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks urging Democrats with less support to drop out. So far, no one has budged. Hicks has said the risk of shutout is “relatively low but not impossible.”

Hicks wasn’t available for further comment on Monday, and the state Republican Party and Bianco or his campaign staff didn’t respond to The Center Square’s requests for comment. 

Hilton also wasn’t available for an interview, but his spokesperson Hector Barajas emailed The Center Square a statement saying Hilton was honored to be endorsed by Trump. The candidate’s statement noted California has the nation’s highest poverty, unemployment and cost-of-living rates after 16 years of “one-party rule” by Democrats. Hilton promised to cut electric bills by half, have no taxes on the first $100,000 of income, make house purchases more affordable and reduce the cost of gas to $3 a gallon.

California consistently has had the nation’s highest gas taxes for several years, and the tax has grown more than $1 a gallon since the Feb. 28 start of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. On Monday, California’s average price was $5.93 a gallon, above the national average of $4.12 a gallon, according to AAA.

Roxanne Hoge, chair of the Los Angeles County Republican Party, told The Center Square that under the top-two primary system, Democrats have spent a lot of money to help Republican candidates they think they can beat in November.

“We as a party have not gotten to choose our standard bearer for a long time, from state Senate all the way up to governor,” Hoge said in a phone interview Monday afternoon. ”The fact that for the first time in hundreds of races they [Democrats] might be shut down does not fill me with great empathy or concern.”

She added two Republicans and no Democrats in the general election’s gubernatorial race would be the best outcome for California.

“I’m firmly of the opinion that either Steve Hilton or Chad Bianco — or any Republican — would be a vast improvement over the public-sector-union puppets we have running our state now,” she said.

In his endorsement on his social media platform TruthSocial, Trump said he has known and respected Hilton for many years. 

“People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World,” Trump’s post said.

“Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so! With Federal help, and a Great Governor, like Steve Hilton, California can be better than ever before!”

There’s the question of whether Trump’s endorsement of Hilton could pull enough votes away from Bianco to mean Hilton would face a Democrat in the general election. But Hoge isn’t willing to predict that would happen.

“Republicans are first and foremost rugged individuals,” Hoge said. “For me to know what they’re going to do would be a fool’s errand.”

Porter, one of the leading Democratic candidates, commented on Trump’s endorsement of Hilton on social media.

“If there was any doubt what this race is about, now it’s certain: It’s California values against MAGA,” Porter posted on X. “I’m running because voters are tired of the same old political games when the stakes are so much higher. They deserve a governor they can trust to fight for regular people, not just push policy agendas that only benefit corporate interests and the richest of the rich.”

Campaign staffs for some of the other leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates did not respond to The Center Square’s requests for comment Monday.