Iran plans to require shipping companies to pay transit tolls in Bitcoin for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Financial Times report.

As Micah Zimmerman reports for BitcoinMagazine.com, this links bitcoin to one of the world’s most critical energy corridors and current events.

The policy would apply to oil tankers seeking passage during a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States, announced after a shift in posture from Donald Trump. The arrangement aims to reopen a route that handles a large share of global oil flows while allowing Tehran to maintain control over access.

According to statements attributed to Iranian officials, shipping firms would receive a payment request prior to transit. Once approved, vessels would be given a short window to complete the transaction in bitcoin. The structure reflects an attempt to bypass traditional financial rails that remain constrained by sanctions, while preserving a mechanism for enforcement over passage.

As The FT details, Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the FT on Wednesday that Iran wanted to collect tolling fees from any tanker passing and to assess each ship.

“Iran needs to monitor what goes in and out of the strait to ensure these two weeks aren’t used for transferring weapons,” said Hosseini, whose industry association works closely with the state.

“Everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush,” he added.

Decisions on the conditions for passing the strait are taken by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Hosseini’s remarks suggest Iran will require any tankers to use the northerly route close to its coastline, raising questions over whether western or Gulf state-linked vessels will be willing to risk transit.

Hosseini said that each tanker must email authorities about its cargo, after which Iran will inform them of the toll to be paid in digital currencies.

He said that the tariff is $1 per barrel of oil, adding that empty tankers can pass freely.

“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” Hosseini added.

Bitcoin, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz

The move places bitcoin at the center of a geopolitical flashpoint. Iran has faced restrictions on dollar-based settlement systems for years, limiting its ability to collect fees or process payments tied to maritime trade. By shifting to bitcoin, authorities seek a channel that operates outside conventional banking networks and offers resistance to seizure.

Shipping companies face a different calculation. Compliance may secure safe passage through a narrow waterway that links the Persian Gulf to global markets, but it introduces exposure to digital asset volatility, operational risk, and legal uncertainty tied to sanctions regimes. 

Markets have begun to react. Bitcoin rose above $72,500 following the ceasefire announcement, reversing earlier weakness tied to fears of escalation.

Currently bitcoin is trading near $73,000. The price move reflects a shift in risk sentiment as traders reassess the likelihood of supply disruptions and broader conflict.

The proposed toll system underscores how digital assets can intersect with state policy under pressure.

For Iran, bitcoin offers a tool to collect revenue and assert control without reliance on intermediaries.

For global shipping, it signals a potential change in how access to key infrastructure could be priced and enforced.

The ceasefire remains limited in scope and duration. Any breakdown in negotiations could halt transit or alter the payment framework, leaving companies exposed to sudden shifts in policy.

For now, the introduction of bitcoin as a toll mechanism marks a test case for cryptocurrency use in sovereign-controlled trade routes, with implications that extend beyond the region.

Unpalatable

Allowing Iran to continue to control the crucial waterway is likely to be highly unpalatable to Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.

It also raises questions for Opec+, the oil producers’ group, with analysts warning that handing Iran control of Hormuz could fundamentally alter the balance of power within the organisation by giving Tehran a potential veto over rival members’ exports.

Ali Shihabi, a commentator close to the Saudi royal court, said the kingdom would demand “unimpeded” access to global markets.

“Allowing Iran any form of control over the strait would be a red line,” Shihabi said. “The priority has to be unimpeded access through the strait.”

Several traders said they thought the situation in the coming days would resemble the system that has developed over the past fortnight, in which a handful of ships that have been approved by Iran are allowed to pass on a specific route.

ASP Isotopes could provide timely relief for the global helium shortage.

In a new research note from Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas, he highlights the company’s Virginia Gas Project in South Africa as a potential new source of supply just as Qatar’s helium exports face major disruption.

The warning comes shortly after we reported on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex damage and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which together threaten roughly one-third of global helium output. Helium remains essential for semiconductor manufacturing, MRI machines, aerospace systems, and quantum computing. It has no practical substitute in chip fabrication, where it cools wafers and detects microscopic leaks.

ASP Isotopes’ Virginia Gas Project stands out because of its unusually high helium concentrations. The 1,870 sq. km deposit averages 3.4% helium, with peaks reaching 12%. That compares with Qatar’s typical 0.01% and the U.S. average of 0.35%.

As we discussed last month, Phase 1 drilling wrapped up four months ahead of schedule in March 2026. Production is scheduled to begin in late 2026, delivering 58 MCF per day of helium alongside LNG. 

Phase 2, targeted for completion around 2030, would scale output to 895 MCF per day. Using conservative pricing of $380 per MCF, Canaccord estimates Phase 1 revenue near $20 million annually and Phase 2 above $285 million.

The project benefits from U.S. International Development Finance Corporation backing and is located in a geopolitically neutral jurisdiction.

ASP Isotopes now faces the standard execution challenges of moving from drilling to full commercial output, but the asset positions the company as one of the few near-term Western-aligned sources capable of adding meaningful new supply.

Authored by T.J. Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

The Artemis II astronauts are on their way home from the moon.

NASA’s Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, and the Canadian Space Agency’s Jeremy Hansen left lunar space just before 1:30 p.m. ET on April 7.

After carrying humanity’s representatives to the farthest point in space ever ventured—where they witnessed cosmic wonders never before seen by mankind—the Orion spacecraft Integrity will return its crew to Earth’s gravity, targeting a splashdown in the Pacific.

But it was the moon that ultimately sent them home. Integrity swung around the farside of the moon, essentially using its gravitational pull to make the necessary U-turn to start the nearly four-day journey home.

The ship reached a peak altitude of 252,756 statute miles above the Earth just after 7 p.m. on April 6 as the moon blocked communications. It was around this point that the crew was at their closest point to the moon, a little more than 4,000 miles above the lunar surface.

Once the crew re-emerged from behind the moon and reacquired communication with mission control, their distance to Earth only became closer and closer. But they started home with confidence of a successful return very soon.

“We will explore. We will build ships. We will visit again,” Koch said.

“We will construct science outposts. We will drive rovers. We will do radio astronomy. We will found companies. We will bolster industry. We will inspire.

“But ultimately, we will always choose Earth. We will always choose each other.”

Artemis Ii is scheduled to splashdown in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego just after 8 p.m. ET on April 10.

Flight director Rick Henfling told reporters during a daily mission briefing at Johnson Space Center on April 7 that the mission’s recovery ship, the USS John P Murtha, has left port in anticipation for Integrity’s return.

Gigabytes of Data

Henfling was joined by NASA administrator Jared Isaacman, who said that as Artemis II continues its journey home, approximately 175 gigabytes of data collected during its seven-hour lunar flyby will be beamed down ahead of it.

Kelsey Young, the mission’s lunar science lead, said that NASA scientists will spend the next six months after splashdown studying all of the images and data and releasing two reports for the public. One report will focus on NASA’s operational structure during the flyby, analyzing how lunar science worked seamlessly with flight operations and the crew during the event. The second will be a preliminary science report that will demonstrate the results of each objective. Young emphasized that the science report will be structured in a way that is transparent and empowers the scientific community to help further expand understanding of the material themselves.

But some photos that made it back to Earth have already been released.

One of them is “Earthset.” Like Apollo 8’s historic “Earthrise” picture taken in December 1968, Artemis II’s striking image displays humanity’s home planet partially lit just above the lunar horizon. But Apollo 8 photographed the Earth after coming around the farside of the moon when the Earth appeared to rise in the lunar sky.

Earthset captured through the Orion spacecraft window at 6:41 p.m. ET on April 6, 2026, during the Artemis II crew’s flyby of the Moon. Courtesy of NASA

Artemis II took its picture of a crescent Earth just before it appeared to set below the horizon as Integrity flew around the farside of the moon.

The space agency has also shared pictures of the visible farside of the moon that include pictures of the entire Orientale Basin, parts of the lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin, and the two craters that the Artemis II crew hopes to officially name. They proposed that one crater be named Integrity, after their spaceship, and another be named Carroll in honor of Wiseman’s late wife, who passed away in 2020 of cancer.

As Wiseman, Glover, Koch, and Hansen watch the Earth get bigger and bigger in the window, they continue to perform mission objectives, including another manual test flight and course correction burn. They also had a ship-to-ship communication with NASA astronauts Jessica Meir, Jack Hathaway, and Chris Williams, and European Space Agency astronaut Sophie Adenot aboard the International Space Station.

It was the first ship-to-ship communication between astronauts in low Earth orbit and deep space. The eight colleagues shared laughs, messages of support, and what the moonshot was like for the three former space station crew members compared to their times in Earth orbit. They also recognized how so much of space station life was integrated into Artemis II, even down to the fact that the crews were eating the same food.

The ship-to-ship transmission ended with both crews wishing each other good luck and that they were all looking forward to being reunited with each other back on home soil.

Last night we reported that no less than 800 ships were still trapped in the immediate aftermath of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, unsure what the fine print of the deal meant for transits. This morning we are down to ~798, after the first two cargo vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire, according to ship tracking data.

The Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach, destined for the United Arab Emirates, crossed just before 8am UK time, while the Greek-owned NJ Earth followed about two hours later, with its destination undisclosed, the tracking platform Kpler showed.

The ships are the first large vessels to transit the critical waterway since the agreement of a two-week ceasefire, under which Iran has claimed it would maintain control of the strait. It was unclear if they paid any tolls to make the crossing. Around 175 million barrels of crude and refined products are currently loaded on to 187 tankers in the Gulf, according to Kpler data — which could now start to move, depending on what happens in the strait.

Regarding Hormuz transit, Iran said it will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as it seeks to retain control over passage through the key waterway during the two-week ceasefire, the FT reported.

Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the FT on Wednesday that Iran wanted to collect tolling fees from any tanker passing and to assess each ship.

“Iran needs to monitor what goes in and out of the strait to ensure these two weeks aren’t used for transferring weapons,” said Hosseini, whose industry association works closely with the state. “Everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush,” he added. 

Decisions on the conditions for passing the strait are taken by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Hosseini’s remarks suggest Iran will require any tankers to use the northerly route close to its coastline, raising questions over whether western or Gulf state-linked vessels will be willing to risk transit.

Hosseini said that each tanker must email authorities about its cargo, after which Iran will inform them of the toll to be paid in digital currencies. 

He said that the tariff is $1 per barrel of oil, adding that empty tankers can pass freely.

“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” Hosseini added.

Speaking to CBS this morning, Trump said that there may be a joint US-Iran venture for Hormuz tolls. 

Tankers in the Gulf on Wednesday received a radio broadcast that warned they would be targeted with military strikes unless they first gained approval from Iranian authorities. 

“If any vessels try to transit without permission, [they] will be destroyed,” said the broadcast, which is in English, according to a recording shared with the FT.

The fate of transit through the strait is one of the thorniest issues facing negotiators as they try to turn a temporary ceasefire into a prolonged peace, with Iran’s desire to retain leverage over the key waterway clashing with fierce opposition from the US’s allies in the Gulf. 

A statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council listed 10 points that form the basis for negotiations with the US, including a new “protocol for secure passage” through the strait in co-ordination with Iran’s armed forces.

Western ship owners said on Wednesday they were taking a cautious approach while waiting for details on how and whether the strait might reopen, with no vessels currently braving the transit apart from two linked to Iran.

Maersk, the world’s second biggest shipping line, said it is “working with urgency” to clarify the terms.

“The ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty,” the company said, adding that it would continue to take a “cautious approach” with cargoes and was not yet making changes to specific services.

Allowing Iran to continue to control the crucial waterway is likely to be highly unpalatable to Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The Omani Minister of Transport said that Oman’s position is clear regarding the Strait of Hormuz: Oman has signed all international maritime transport agreements. The Strait of Hormuz is a natural passage, created without human intervention, and therefore fees cannot be imposed on it according to the international agreements signed by the Sultanate.

🚨وزير النقل العُماني:

بالنسبة لمضيق هرمز، موقف عُمان واضح، عُمان وقّعت على جميع الاتفاقيات الخاصة بالنقل البحري دولياً.
​مضيق هرمز معبر طبيعي، لم يتدخل الإنسان في خلقه، ولذلك لا يمكن فرض رسوم عليه حسب الاتفاقيات الدولية التي وقّعت عليها السلطنة. pic.twitter.com/G8cE4mhDaA

— الأحداث العالمية (@NewsNow4USA) April 8, 2026

It also raises questions for Opec+, the oil producers’ group, with analysts warning that handing Iran control of Hormuz could fundamentally alter the balance of power within the organisation by giving Tehran a potential veto over rival members’ exports.

Ali Shihabi, a commentator close to the Saudi royal court, said the kingdom would demand “unimpeded” access to global markets.

 “Allowing Iran any form of control over the strait would be a red line,” Shihabi said. “The priority has to be unimpeded access through the strait.”

On Wednesday Saudi Arabia’s key East-West pipeline, which the kingdom has been using to reroute oil exports to the Red Sea, was struck by a drone according to people familiar with the matter, despite the ceasefire.

Several traders said they thought the situation in the coming days would resemble the system that has developed over the past fortnight, in which a handful of ships that have been approved by Iran are allowed to pass on a specific route. During the conflict this was largely limited to vessels that had generally done business with Iran and that were not connected to the US, Israel or Gulf states that had provided staging for attacks.

Martin Kelly, head of advisory at maritime intelligence group EOS Risk, said that there was “no way” that the backlog of ships waiting to get out could be cleared in two weeks.

Around 10 to 15 ships might be able to transit the strait per day as the process was “quite time-consuming”, he said, down from 135 ships before the war.

Airline stocks are flying high in premarket trading in New York after the overnight ceasefire between the Trump administration and Tehran. The truce is a positive for the aviation industry, which has been locked in turbulence for six weeks, as surging jet fuel prices have crushed the margins of major carriers, forcing ticket and baggage price hikes and triggering travel chaos across the Gulf region.

“Even two weeks is a positive because we will see some flow of oil return,” Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, told Bloomberg Television in an interview.

Walsh pointed out that even with a ceasefire underway, jet fuel prices “will remain elevated for some time.”

“If crude has come down 16%, you like to think jet will come down by a similar figure, but it’s still going to be a high price. That will mean higher ticket prices. It is inevitable,” he warned.

Walsh also cautioned that jet fuel supply shortage risks remain elevated, with Asia seen as the most exposed region, followed by Africa and Europe. JPMorgan outlined “demand destruction” and how the energy shock spreads in a note here.

Even though WTI and Brent crude prices collapsed overnight, Walsh said normalization across the airline industry and energy markets will take time.

Delta Air Lines warned earlier that it expects to incur more than $2 billion in fuel costs through June, but noted that it has yet to change its full-year profit forecast because the outlook remains too murky.

Last week…

Third-Order Effects Begin: U.S. Airlines Hike Bag Fees as Jet Fuel Prices Spike

Malaysia Airlines’ Nasaruddin Bakar warned that “even if the war stops, it’s going to take many, many more months for the price to stabilize.”

Thai Airways CEO Chai Eamsiri pointed out, “This time is about the infrastructure that was destroyed. It will take some time to bring back all the supply, the facilities, the refineries, and the infrastructure.”

“The Iran conflict has flipped the airline industry on its head, as fuel costs have more than doubled at a time when demand has improved,” Melius analyst Conor Cunningham told clients.

Relief in airline stocks was evident in premarket trading in New York, with United Airlines up 11.5%, Delta Air Lines up 11%, and Southwest Airlines up 10%.

In mid-March, amid all the panic, UBS analyst Atul Maheswari asked: “Are we approaching a bottom for these airline stocks?” It appears so (well so far).

US futures, global stocks and bonds are sharply higher while oil prices plunge the most in years as a wave of optimism swept through global markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz: JPMorgan’s Market Intel desk, which moves from Neutral to Tactically Bullish this morning, says to look for a re-risking in the very near-term albeit it with higher energy prices. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 2.8% higher while emerging-market stocks rallied the most since 2022; Nasdaq gains 3.5% with Mag7 and Semis seeing significant bids as part of an ‘Everything Rally’ ex-Energy. Yet while the overwhelming mood in markets is relief, the same core challenges remain to find a resolution amenable to both countries and Goldman’s Delta-One head says he is selling the rally. Brent plunged 16% to around $93 a barrel. Bonds surged, with 10Y tsy yields sliding 8bps to 4.23% while benchmark UK yields tumbled by 22 basis points. The dollar weakened to a one-month low. Gold and silver gain. The macro data focus today is on the Fed Minutes ahead of PCE and CPI releases later this week.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all sharply higher: Meta +5%, Tesla +4.5%, Alphabet +4%, Nvidia +3.5%, Amazon +4%, Microsoft +3.3%, Apple +2%

Gainers also include precious-metal miners and financial firms, while chemical and fertilizer names fall.
Energy stocks fall due to the ceasefire: Exxon (XOM) -5.3%, Chevron (CVX) -4.3% and Venture Global (VG) -11%
Airlines rally: United (UAL) +11%, Delta (DAL) +10%
Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) climbs 8% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported third-quarter results. The earnings prompted Craig-Hallum to raise its rating to buy, citing “improving business momentum and significant growth opportunities over multiple business segments.”
Levi Strauss (LEVI) gains 9% after the apparel company boosted its adjusted earnings-per-share and revenue forecasts for the full year citing strong demand as the denim brand steers shoppers to its own stores and website.

In corporate news, Super Micro Computer launched an internal probe to investigate circumstances surrounding server sales to China. Elon Musk is seeking to have Sam Altman removed from his roles at OpenAI as part of his legal challenge to the company’s conversion to a for-profit company.

The ceasefire announcement came not long before a deadline Trump had set that threatened a major escalation of the war. “We have now stepped back off the edge of the precipice,” said Aviva’s Richard Saldanha. The rapid twists and turns of the war have led to a record intensity of stock trading, according to a measure of daily SPY ETF turnover.

Looking at overnight markets, the most dramatic moves were in oil markets. European natural gas futures posted their biggest decline in more than two years, shedding as much as 20%. Prices of refined fuels such as diesel and jet fuel — which had been the biggest threats to global inflation — also tumbled.

As part of the two-week truce, Iran said it will allow ships to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, easing the chokehold on energy supplies that have threatened to cripple the global economy and accelerate inflation. A potential snag comes from the FT which reports that Iran demands fees for ships passing through the strait and will ask payment for tolls in crypto payment. While many investors cautioned that there is still a wide gap in the negotiation demands of Iran and the US, the widespread view was that stocks have fallen so sharply in recent weeks that any de-escalation path would be enough to trigger a rebound. 

“This is also showing promising signs that we’ve dodged the worst-case scenario,” said Matthew Haupt, a fund manager at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney. “It’s a good result considering the alternatives, as it shows a willingness to get something done.”

The latest news has left the Trump Reversal Index — a gauge created by Bloomberg strategist Simon White that combines various macro indicators — back to not much higher than where it was before the war started.  Light positioning is also fueling Wednesday’s relief rally. Volatility-control funds’ allocations to US equities had recently fallen to 56%, the lowest since July, according to Barclays. 

What comes next will depend on five questions, according to Jennifer Welch, chief geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. These include whether Iran fully reopens Hormuz and whether Israel sticks to the ceasefire. Hormuz will “never go back to the way it was before,” said Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli. “Iran’s ability to shut the waterway will embed a risk premium in the price of all commodities flowing through it for the foreseeable future.” More than 800 ships are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf.

In politics, US regulators unveiled a plan to overhaul rules intended to prevent money laundering. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer promoted the creation of a US-China board of trade, while downplaying the possibility of a similar group focused on bilateral investment.

Traders are now back to seeing a strong chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Swaps are signaling a 60% likelihood of a rate cut by the year-end, compared with almost no chance seen at the start of this week. Before the war started, they had priced in more than two reductions. 

Some of the world’s largest investment firms are betting the market turbulence is past its peak and are buying bonds and artificial-intelligence stocks, while selling the dollar. Kellie Wood at Schroders Plc snapped up short-dated bonds including Treasuries on Wednesday morning. Jupiter Asset Management Ltd. is considering doing the same alongside plans to sell the greenback. Allspring Global Investments is buying tech and defense stocks that are seen as insulated from energy shocks.

European stocks are soaring: the Estoxx 50 up more than 5% and the Stoxx 600 is up 4% alongside a 14% decline in Brent crude as  markets cheer news of the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire, even if the truce is a “fragile” one. European equity sectors are mostly higher with outperformance in travel, IT and consumer discretionary. Airline stocks, which have been pummeled by concerns of skyrocketing energy prices, lead gains in Europe. EasyJet Plc and Deutsche Lufthansa AG both jumped more than 10%. Energy stocks post material losses.Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

European oil stocks plunge on an otherwise broadly risk-on day, with airlines and technology shares particularly strong after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, sending the crude price tumbling and other asset classes soaring. Luxury-goods stocks, miners and chemicals stocks also rise strongly
Close Brothers shares surge as much as 23%, the most since August, as the lender said the estimated cost of the FCA’s motor finance redress proposal is broadly similar to its existing provision
Gamma Communications shares soar as much as 15%, their biggest intraday gain on record, after the telecom services company said it’s in preliminary talks with a number of potential bidders
Redcare Pharmacy shares rise as much as 16% after the German firm’s preliminary first-quarter figures reassured analysts. Shares in Swiss peer DocMorris gain as much as 9.9%
Polish coal miners Bogdanka and JSW slump after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The move is expected to ease the energy shock, denting bets on a broader return to coal-fired power in Europe
Shares in Norway’s Yara fall as much as 13%, while Germany’s K+S drops as much as 13%, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Stocks in Dubai — a key target of Iranian attacks during the conflict — jumped 8.5%, the most since Dec. 2014. Pakistan equities were also among the top gainers, after the country emerged as a key mediator in the ceasefire.

Still, there were continued reports of hostilities, underscoring the fragility of the deal. The UAE said it responded to a missile threat as of early afternoon local time, while Kuwait’s army cited “intense” attacks from Iran throughout the morning. “Markets have been moving very quickly, setting us up for a relief rally,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. “What will happen in the next few weeks — who knows? It’s hard to believe that this is a long-term resolution.”  

Asian stocks rose for a fourth straight day to a one-month high as oil prices tumbled after a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, easing fears of supply disruptions and inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 4.9%, led by heavyweight chipmakers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. South Korea’s Kospi surged nearly 7%, leading gains in the region, while benchmarks in Japan and Taiwan advanced more than 3% each. Shares also advanced more than 3% in mainland China, Hong Kong and India. The Reserve Bank of India held key interest rates on Wednesday, striking a cautious tone as it monitors the impact of surging oil prices on the economy and pledges to curb any excessive currency moves.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.8% with the greenback lower versus all major peers. The kiwi is one of the better G-10 performers following the hawkish hold from the RBNZ.  

In rates, global bond yields are materially lower with German and UK 2-year borrowing costs down 22bps and 25bps respectively as traders scale back ECB and BOE hike bets. The US curve is in bull-steepening mode with traders pricing a circa 50% chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end. Treasury futures trade near session highs reached following gap higher at the Asia open, with oil benchmarks down more than 10% and stocks surging after US and Iran set a two-week ceasefire and Tehran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US yields are lower by 3bp-6bp across a steeper curve as long-end tenors lag front-end and belly; 10-year is lower by more than 6bp near 4.23%. Swap spreads leg higher as demand pours in for cash Treasuries, with long-end spreads wider by nearly 3bp. The US session includes 10-year note reopening; demand was strong for Tuesday’s 3-year new issue.  Treasury’s $39 billion 10-year note reopening has WI yield near 4.24%, about 2bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which tailed by 0.7bp; auction cycle concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year reopening

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down about 16% near session lows; their biggest drop since the covid crash; Brent crude fell as much as 16% and European natural gas futures posted their biggest decline in more than two years despite uncertainty about how quickly transit through Hormuz can resume. Precious metals are gaining, with spot gold and silver up 1.7% and 5.3% respectively. Bitcoin has added 3.2%. 

Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data calendar is blank; Fed speaker slate includes San Francisco’s Daly at 1:05pm, and FOMC releases minutes of March meeting at 2pm.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +2.7%
Nasdaq 100 mini +3.5%
Russell 2000 mini +3.8%
Stoxx Europe 600 +3.8%
DAX +4.7%
CAC 40 +4.2%
10-year Treasury yield -6 basis points at 4.23%
VIX -5.5 points at 20.26
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.8% at 1200.59
euro +0.8% at $1.1685
WTI crude -15.9% at $95.04/barrel

Top Overnight News

Oil headed for the biggest drop in six years and global equities surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump said the US will help relieve Hormuz traffic with more than 800 vessels still trapped in the Persian Gulf. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel supports the ceasefire but said it doesn’t include Hezbollah in Lebanon. BBG
Kuwait said it’s dealing with “intense” Iranian attacks this morning and some Arab states reported continued attacks. BBG
NATO chief Mark Rutte meets Trump today, hoping to temper the president’s anger that alliance members have refused to help. But Rutte’s own allies are questioning whether his deferential approach is appropriate, or even working, according to people familiar. BBG
Chinese imports into the US haven’t dropped as much as the headline numbers might suggest as companies slash the value of their shipments “using tactics ranging from legal accounting tricks to outright fraud.” NYT
The RBI held rates at 5.25% in its first policy decision since the Middle East crisis erupted. The RBNZ left its benchmark rate at 2.25%. BBG
Japanese workers’ wages adjusted for inflation rose at the fastest pace since 2021, backing the case for the Bank of Japan to consider a rate hike as soon as this month. Real wages increased 1.9% from a year earlier in February, marking a second straight monthly gain, the labor ministry reported Wednesday. Economists had forecast a 1.3% increase. BBG
The Treasury Department wants to talk to state insurance commissioners about the private loans piling up in insurers’ portfolios. Those state regulators have been keeping some of their thoughts to themselves.
Moody’s Ratings has cut its outlook on a $36-billion Blue Owl fund to “negative” from “stable” on Tuesday, citing redemption requests that were “significantly higher” than peers in the first quarter. RTRS
In Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, the Democratic-backed candidate sailed to a nearly 20-point landslide victory Tuesday in a battleground Trump carried less than two years ago. Meanwhile, a Georgia Democrat slashed Trump’s margin of victory by two thirds in the state’s reddest district despite losing the election — the most significant overperformance the party has seen across all seven House special elections so far this cycle. Politico

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks rallied with markets euphoric and relieved after US President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran in the final hours before his Tuesday evening deadline. The ceasefire was proposed by Pakistan and is subject to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran was said to have agreed to, while the US and Iran are set to conduct talks on Friday in Islamabad. Furthermore, Israel and Lebanon were reported to be part of the ceasefire, although Israeli PM Netanyahu later denied that Lebanon was included. ASX 200 advanced with the gains led by outperformance in gold miners and tech, while energy was at the other end of the spectrum amid the slump in oil prices. Nikkei 225 rose above the 56,000 level with sentiment in Japan boosted by the lower oil prices, while participants also digested the firmer-than-expected wages data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the widespread risk-on mood amid the US-Iran ceasefire and as Hong Kong participants returned to the market following a five-day closure.

Top Asian News

European bourses (STOXX 600 +3.7%) have expressed relief from the announcement of a two-week Iran ceasefire, with all indices gaining by over 2%. European sectors are entirely in the green, ex. Energy and Utilities. Cyclicals benefit the most, with Travel and Leisure, Technology and Consumer Products and Services topping the pile.

Top European News

German Factory Orders MoM (Feb) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. 2% (Prev. -11.1%).
French Balance of Trade (Feb) -5.8B vs. Exp. -2.3B (Prev. -1.8B).
French Imports (Feb) 57.8B (Prev. 55.3B).
French Exports (Feb) 52.0B (Prev. 53.4B).
EU Retail Sales MoM (Feb) M/M -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%).
EU Retail Sales YoY (Feb) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 2%).

FX

FX markets began the session firmly risk-on as the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, clearing a path for the “re-open” of the Hormuz Strait. Unsurprisingly, the Buck has been knocked with DXY -0.7%, as it loses its favour as the preferred hedge against energy with Brent crude below the USD 100/bbl mark. In a note this morning, Jefferies set out three potential future scenarios: 1) a narrow diplomatic Off-Ramp, centred on reopening the Strait of Hormuz under a face-saving framework for Iran, 2) frozen conflict, where the ceasefire is extended or repeatedly renewed without a formal peace agreement, with oil trading below crisis peaks but above pre-war levels. 3) escalation resumes: triggering renewed disruption fears, pushing oil prices higher, and driving a sharp risk-off move in global markets.
NZD is the clear outperformer against the USD, helped by both the positive Middle East development and remarks in RBNZ’s post-meeting presser, where Governor Breman said the MPC discussed the possibility of raising rates in April and May meetings, and the “Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting” Despite the Kiwi’s strength, AUD/USD has also been helped alongside risk sentiment and a rebound in precious metals.
GBP is relieved by the slump in crude prices, with Cable +1% at the time of writing. Markets are still expecting c. 30bps of hiking for the BoE, a pullback of the same magnitude since Tuesday’s close. The Cable rally stalled just above the 1.3440 mark; EUR/GBP has recently fallen just below its 200 DMA, and beneath the 0.87 mark – next up, 50 DMA at 0.8687.

Fixed Income

Global fixed benchmarks are soaring this morning, with upside facilitated by the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which has helped to pressure the crude complex. As a whole, bonds are stronger, and a clear curve steepening bias is seen across the complex.
USTs are currently trading at session highs, holding at the top end of a 111-05+ to 111-21 range. US paper moved higher on the announcement itself, and then gradually strolled to peaks as the session progressed. European price action has been fairly muted, with the benchmark ultimately trading sideways. From a yield perspective, the 2yr yield now resides around 3.719% (vs Tuesday’s close at 3.80%) and well below the peaks from the Iranian conflict at 4.027%. Geopols aside, focus today will turn to the FOMC Minutes of the March confab, where the Bank left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with no change to forward guidance, balance sheet plans or implementation guidance. A US 10yr auction is also due.
Bunds and Gilts follow the above, and currently reside at highs. The former is higher by over 175 ticks and within a 125.74 to 126.45 range, whilst UK paper extends gains of over 230 ticks, in an 89.70 to 90.18 range. Europe and UK fixed income has been considerably pressured since the start of the Iranian war, given their high dependence on external energy. For now, some short term reprieve across assets – and this has been reflected in market pricing, with only 2bps worth of hikes priced in for the ECB’s April meeting (vs 12bps pre-ceasefire); however, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with markets still pricing in 45bps worth of hikes by year-end. From a yield perspective, the UK 2yr yield sank at the open, bottoming at 4.044% (vs post-Iran war peak at 4.712%); GE 2yr yield now hovers around the 2.50% mark.

Commodities

The US and Iran have agreed in principle to a two-week ceasefire, brokered with support from Pakistan, under which the US will suspend bombing, and Iran will allow controlled reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump described the move as a “double-sided ceasefire,” saying most major disputes have already been resolved and that a broader peace agreement is close. Iran has accepted the pause, with its leadership approving negotiations set to begin in Islamabad, where both sides aim to finalise terms based on a 10-point proposal submitted by Tehran.
The ceasefire remains conditional and fragile. Iran stated it will halt military responses only if attacks stop, while warning it remains ready to retaliate if provoked. The arrangement includes limited safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian coordination, a critical step given the severe disruption to global shipping and energy flows. Israel has signalled support for the temporary pause, though there is conflicting information over whether Lebanon is included.
However, it is worth noting recent reporting suggests that explosions were heard at Iran’s Lavan refinery, and other reports suggest that explosions were also heard at Iran’s Siri Island – details are light at this stage. But some may begin to question whether the ceasefire has already been violated.
Energy prices plummeted. Crude futures both tumbled beneath the USD 100/bbl level following the announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire within a couple of hours prior to President Trump’s deadline. WTI May’26 resides towards the bottom of a USD 91.70-96.27/bbl and Brent Jun’26 towards the foot of a USD 91.05-109.19/bbl range. Dutch TTF slipped to under EUR 45/MWh.
Spot gold rose above USD 4,850/oz before paring gains slightly to trade around the middle of a USD 4,713-4,858/oz range. Spot silver topped its 100 DMA (USD 76.11/oz) and resides near the top of a USD 73.38-77.65/oz parameter.
Copper climbed to a three-week high, and aluminium also advanced as easing concerns over global growth lifted sentiment. 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 12,550.00-12,743.90/t range.
China has reportedly given additional crude import quotas to independent refiners to maintain fuel production at the mandated 2025 levels.
Abu Dhabi’s media office announces that three people were injured after debris from air defence interception sparked fires at the Habshan gas complex, operations have been suspended temporarily.
IATA chief said if Hormuz Strait were to reopen, it will still take a period of months to get where jet fuel supply needs to be.

Central Banks

RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, as expected, while it stated in the near term inflation, is expected to increase and economic recovery to weaken, while committee is focused on ensuring that inflation returns at a 2% target midpoint over the medium-term.
RBNZ Governor Breman said in online post-meeting press conference that the decision to hold rates was a consensus, adds discussed raising rates at today’s meeting but were not close to hiking. We were not close to hiking rates today and there were no strong advocates for a hike today. If oil prices keep falling our inflation forecast would be on the high side. Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting, it depends.
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) said sees downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation, while he is cautious on the economic outlook and noted uncertainty is elevated. Current policy rate is well-positioned to respond and rate is broadly in range of neutral. US labour market is roughly in balance and susceptible to adverse shocks. US inflation remains above the central bank’s targets and warns that persistent elevated energy prices can weigh in consumer and business spending.
ECB’s Dolenc said that if the Iran war drags on, it will be very bad for inflation and growth.
RBI keeps Repurchase Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it maintains a neutral stance.
ASB Bank now sees RBNZ raising rates in September and December of this year vs prev. forecast of a December hike.

Geopolitics

US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that this will be a double-sided ceasefire. Trump said the reason for doing so is that they have already met and exceeded all military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran, and peace in the Middle East. Furthermore, he confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate, while he stated that almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran, although a two-week period will allow the agreement to be finalised and consummated.
US President Trump posted “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process…this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!”
US President Trump tells AFP that Iran deal is complete and comprehensive victory for the US, also said Iran uranium will be perfectly taken care of and that he believes China got Iran to negotiate.
Iranian Press SNN notes of a potential ceasefire violation, highlighting several explosions that occurred in Siri and Lavan islands. Furthermore, Iran’s National Security Council says within a few hours, if firing does not stop in southern Lebanon, the air and missile unit will bomb Tel Aviv.
Iran said negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad to finalise details, with the aim of confirming Iran’s battlefield achievements politically within maximum of 15 days, with talks to begin April 10th and may be extended if both sides agree. Talks with the US do not mean of the war, according to Iranian media. The safe passage through Hormuz is possible for two weeks and Foreign Minister Araghchi said their forces will halt operations if attacks on Iran cease.
Pakistan’s President invites US and Iran delegates to Islamabad on Friday, while reported also noted that EU envoys Witkoff, Kushner and VP Vance is expected to attend US-Iran talks.
US official said ceasefire will begin this evening, but they believe it may take some time for orders to reach Revolutionary Guard units at the field level.
Iran and Oman reportedly will be allowed to charge for passage in the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire.
Israel’s Ynet cites security sources stating that Iran ceasefire will also include Lebanon.
Iran’s Supreme Leader instructed negotiators to seek a truce, according to Axios.
Iran’s permanent ambassador to the UN said Iran categorically rejects any temporary ceasefire, while he stated that any solution to the end of the conflict must guarantee a definitive and irreversible anti-aggression and establish a just and lasting peace.
The US will insist on removing nuclear materials from Iran, Al Hadath reported citing Israeli officials via Haaretz.
White House official said Iran ceasefire takes effect once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
Senior White House official said Israel is part of the 2-week ceasefire, according to CNN. Israel agrees to suspend bombing while talks are ongoing.
Omani Transport Minister said no fees can be imposed on the Strait of Hormuz according to the signed agreements.
Iraq’s Islamic Resistance suspends operations for two weeks.
Hezbollah will announce formal position on ceasefire and response to Israeli PM’s assertion that Lebanon is not included, according to sources.
New wave of Iranian missiles fired towards Israel.
Israeli military official said Israel is still striking Iran, according to CNN.
Several explosions reported at Iran’s Sirri Island on Wednesday morning; source of explosions unknown, Mehr News reported.
Explosions heard at the Lavan oil refinery (50k BPD) in Iran, Mehr reported; origin of the explosion is not known.
Bahrain sounds missile alert hours after the US and Iran ceasefire agreement, according to AP.
N12 noted reported of explosion in Kermanshah northwestern Iran.
IDF said it identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel.
Iran’s Supreme Security Council said fingers are on the trigger and as soon as the enemy makes the slightest mistake, it will be answered with full force.
Maritime Shipping Data shows traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains light and limited, Arab News reported.

US Event Calendar

7:00 am: United States Apr 3 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -10.4%
1:05 pm: United States Fed’s Daly Gives Keynote Remarks
2:00 pm: United States FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets are seeing a sharp rebound overnight following news that the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Trump posted that following a request by Pakistan, he agreed to suspend attacks against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran agreeing to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz”. He claimed that the US had already met its military objectives and called the 10-point proposal received from Iran a “workable basis on which to negotiate”. Tehran accepted the ceasefire proposal “if attacks against Iran are halted”. Foreign Minister Araghchi also announced that, in response to Trump’s “acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal”, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks “via coordination with Iran’s armed forces and with due consideration to technical limitations”. The AP has reported that the plan will allow Iran and Oman to charge fees for transits through the Strait. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif has invited US and Iran for talks in Islamabad on Friday (April 10) to negotiate a “conclusive agreement”.

Investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief that an offramp out of the war is being taken even as there’ll be various elements to watch to see whether this leads to sustained de-escalation. Will the ceasefire hold? We saw some strikes by Israel and Iran overnight though these may have been in the works before the conditional ceasefire. We’ve also seen conflicting commentary on whether the ceasefire will extend to Israel’s action in Lebanon. Can talks lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities? Trump’s comment last night that “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to” suggests a lower bar for agreement, but Iran’s reported 10-point plan includes elements such as the lifting of all sanctions and Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz that have previously been unacceptable to the US and allies. Those points also do not restrict Iran’s enriched uranium, which Trump suggested would be “perfectly taken care of” as he claimed a “total and complete victory” in an interview to AFP late last night. And in his latest post overnight, Trump appeared keen to lean into the prospects for full resolution, claiming “a big day for World Peace” and that the US “will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz”.

Indeed, the most important question for markets will be to what extent does shipping via Hormuz pick up in the coming days. For now, oil prices have plunged on the ceasefire news, with Brent crude down -13.51% to $94.51/bbl this morning as I type, its lowest intra-day level in four weeks. It had been at nearly $110/bbl before the news of Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal began to emerge but then fell as low as $91/bbl as the ceasefire was confirmed early in the Asian session before recovering slightly. WTI is similarly down -14.92% to $96.10/bbl.

In turn, risk assets are seeing a sharp rally. S&P 500 futures are up +2.48%, which leaves them less than 2% below the levels on February 27 before the Iran strikes began and +6.8% up from their closing low on Mach 30. NASDAQ futures are +3.15%, while those on Euro STOXX 50 are +5.42% higher after a weak session yesterday. Asian equities are also rallying strongly, with the KOSPI (+7.26%) and the Nikkei (+5.26%) at the forefront. The Hang Seng (+2.82%) is advancing after the holiday, while the CSI (+2.76%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.92%) are also seeing solid gains in mainland China, as is the S&P/ASX 200 (+2.71%) in Australia.

On the fixed income side, 2yr (-6.8bps to 3.72%) and 10yr (-5.2bps to 4.24%) Treasuries are seeing a sizeable rally, with 10yr JGBs (-4.9bps) posting a similar advance. Fed funds futures are now pricing 14bps of Fed cuts by December, up from zero when Europe went home yesterday. And in FX, the dollar index is down -0.92%, while gold is +2.00% higher.

Earlier yesterday, markets had traded cautiously amidst worsening headlines, including Trump’s social media post that a “whole civilization will die tonight” unless “something revolutionarily” happens on Iran’s side, as well as news of increased strikes by the US, Israel and Iran across the Middle East. US markets then saw a recovery late in yesterday’s session as news broke that the US and Iran were considering Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal. That helped the S&P 500 recover to +0.08% by the close, having been -1.2% down earlier in the session, while 2yr (-6.1bps) and 10yr (-3.8bps) Treasury yields rallied late yesterday, having been a few basis points higher on the day at the European close.

European markets had closed near the session lows yesterday, with the STOXX 600 falling back -1.01%. The more externally-sensitive DAX (-1.06%) led the declines, while the FTSE 100 (-0.84%), CAC 40 (-0.67%) and FTSEMIB (-0.47%) were also all in the red. European bonds also saw a significant sell-off with yields on 10yr bunds rising +9.1bps to 3.08%, just 1bps below the post-2011 high they had reached on March 27. Yields on 10yr BTPs (+11.6bps) and OATs (+10.0bps) saw a larger sell-off amid the risk-off mood.

Over in the UK, 10yr gilts (+7.1bps to 4.90%) saw a slightly more modest sell-off as the final UK March services PMI was revised down from 51.2 to 50.5. That marked a sharper decline than seen in the euro area, where the final services PMI was revised a touch higher, from 50.1 to 50.2. Within the euro area data, there was a notable divergence between resilience in Spain (53.3 vs 51.9 previous, 50.6 expected) and a marked decline in Italy (48.8 vs 52.3 prev., 50.9 exp), which might reflect the fact that while both countries have adopted fiscal measures to reduce the costs of the energy shock, the scale of the Spanish response has been significantly larger.

When it comes to yesterday’s US data, the highlight was the latest weekly ADP employment numbers, which showed private job gains pick up to +26k on average for the four weeks ending on March 21. That marked the strongest print since ADP started publishing the weekly data last year and equates to over 100k in monthly job gains. So that added to the easing labour market concerns after the strong March payrolls reports on Friday. US February durable goods orders also looked solid, with ex-transport orders up +0.8% MoM (vs. +0.5% expected) and core shipments up +0.9% (vs. +0.4% exp.). Meanwhile, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations series jumped from +3.00% to +3.42% in March, though this was a touch below consensus (+3.50%) and below the levels it reached after the Liberation Day tariffs last spring (3.63%). We also got comments from NY Fed President Williams, who was relatively sanguine yesterday when he said that that the war might add a tenth or two to core inflation, and that the story around underlying inflation was not much changed.

Finally, in other overnight news the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its cash rate at 2.25% as expected. The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee noted a significant shift in the economic outlook amid higher energy prices, which are expected to push short-term inflation up while slowing economic activity. The yield on the 2yr government note is -4.2bps lower this morning, though this is mostly matching the move in Treasuries.

To the day ahead now, we’ll have UK March Construction PMI, Germany February factory orders, March construction PMI, France February trade balance, current account balance, Eurozone February PPI and retail sales. We’ll also get the March FOMC minutes

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Basically we wound up at the better end of our “base case” in yesterday’s Spaghetti Western, and you could argue we made it all the way into our best case of “ceasefire” (I’m reluctant to label it that, as you will see, but it is touching on that end).

I do think we are far from a “real deal”.

In any case, markets are responding according as both sides send people to Pakistan to negotiate a deal.

Stocks are up strongly across the globe, with Europe and Asia leading the way (they were hit hardest by the conflict). 

Bonds too are having an incredibly strong day (once again led by Europe).

Crude oil is falling like a rock, as shipping is potentially set to resume.

One reason stocks didn’t seem to respond much last week to rising spot oil prices was because later month contracts hadn’t risen much.

For now, the August WTI contract is basically where we were on March 23rd, the Monday that began the “deal is on the way” theater, which will temper how much further the stock market can rally.

Any “Ceasefire” Should Benefit the U.S. the Most

While we don’t know the specific status of each country, it seems fair to argue that the U.S. can do more to bolster its position – politically and military, than Iran can during a pause. A win for the U.S. and markets.

It will be interesting to see what develops on the “coalition” side of the equation. There has been reporting/wild speculation (difficult to tell the difference sometimes) that China was involved in bringing Iran to the deal. That could be interesting if true, and if China really wants to play a role.

Some “Caveats”

I suspect that how markets and voters respond, will influence what comes next. Two things show up as “immediate” question marks around the negotiations:

The U.S. acceptance is “subject to” Iran opening the Strait. Iran has agreed to control shipping through the Strait. Both sides are “vague” enough that this could be acceptable enough to keep the negotiations going. Though it is pretty clear, that the first “walk away” moment, is likely to come from either side regarding how open the Strait really is.

Vance (who will be leading the U.S. team) has already brought up the need for Iran to “negotiate in good faith”. Since the conflict started while “technical negotiations” were ongoing, this is another signal that the U.S. needs progress.

The “Supreme Leader” who until last night, allegedly sending slips of paper with instructions to runners to deal with the negotiations, had been largely MIA (with many reporting severe wounds and questions about his power).

Israel reportedly has agreed to cease attacks as well. Israel is largely aligned with the U.S. and largely dependent on U.S. forces in the region, but largely is not the same as totally.

These are just some of the things that could cause some breakdown in talks.

Everyone’s a Winner…

Both Iran and the U.S. are claiming this to be a major victory.

While it is all evolving rapidly, the U.S. has a multipoint plan. Iran has a multipoint plan.

 Very few of the points align.

Clearly this is why they are sitting down at the table.

Both sides have clearly read the “Art of the Deal” and are approaching negotiations from a maximalist point of view.

How serious either side is on each of their points remains to be seen. Given where we were yesterday morning, it would seem that the U.S. is likely to be the first to use the threat of ending the ceasefire to get maximum leverage.

Just this morning, the President announced “working with Iran” to dig up the nuclear materials. That seems like progress as ensuring Iran cannot attain nuclear weapons should be a key goal of the administration (and the world).

Bottom Line

This played out at the “optimistic” end of our spectrum of outcomes. A very pleasant surprise.

From here the devil (almost literally) will be in the details. I don’t expect smooth sailing, but market reaction will be muted in either direction, but especially to the downside, now that both sides seem willing to play ball. Though who wouldn’t play ball when you think your demands might be met, for a one-sided victory?

I do think public reaction, domestically, will influence how tough the U.S. negotiates versus trying to declare victory and move on.

Hopefully we see significant transit through the Strait.

On the negative side of things (there always has to be a negative), it is unclear how much damage has already been done to the global economy and supply chain, and how quickly that can be rectified (especially if traffic is limited).

Now we can get back to affordability (which got better with the pause, but is still an issue), private credit, etc.

Lot of comparisons to the post Liberation Day, TACO, rally. That just doesn’t seem correct.

Stocks were never in freefall like they were then.

We have not moved too far from the highs on many major indices. So, yes, the rally overnight can continue, but the comparisons to post Liberation Day, tariff walkback, rally isn’t realistic.

Good luck and am glad we aren’t waking up to the smoking rubble of a society (which never seemed likely but was in the back of everyone’s mind).

War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, are expected to give their first post-ceasefire announcement briefing on Iran at 8am Eastern time. Watch Live:

Iran sees this as Victory

The United States and Iran have announced a two-week suspension of all attacks, and Tehran reportedly agreed to allow safe transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. It all started with President Trump seizing on the last-minute olive branch plan offered by Pakistan’s prime minister, which urged a two week extension of the US deadline before massive obliteration bombings began, and in return Iran would agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has essentially declared victory and stated that upcoming talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday do not guarantee an end to the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given supportive lip service to the US decision but stated that Lebanon is excluded from the two-week ceasefire.

Latest from Trump on Truth Social:

Oil prices dropped rapidly after Donald Trump announced the pause, with Brent crude trading just below $95 per barrel. Qatar’s Cabinet welcomed the US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, stating it emphasizes “the necessity of immediately halting all hostile actions and practices that undermine regional stability, respect for state sovereignty, and the assurance of security for maritime passages, freedom of navigation, and international trade.”

Iran meanwhile is demanding stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. So now, in essense… stability in global energy flows depends on accommodating Iran AND it will likely get sanctions relief, per the deal on the table.

Iranian state media has featured celebratory scenes in the streets:

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Breaking | Iranian television:

Trump agreed to Iran’s conditions to end the war.

Iran has officially won. pic.twitter.com/qjnt9lnTOO

— Global Insight Journal (@GlobalIJournal) April 7, 2026

Ceasefire Hailed Internationally

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X that he held a “warm, substantive” conversation with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. “I conveyed my deep appreciation for the wisdom and sagacity of the Iranian leadership in accepting Pakistan’s offer to host peace talks in Islamabad later this week to work jointly for the return of peace to the region,” he said.

“President Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran’s participation in the upcoming negotiations and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s efforts, while conveying his best wishes for the people of Pakistan,” he added.

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun welcomed the ceasefire, while Israel has instead asserted that Lebanon remains outside the agreement and continued strikes on the country.

To quote armchair war hawk Michael Weiss, A month ago Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Now the U.S. claims these are a feasible starting point for negotiations…

Pope Leo XIV praised the agreement as a “sign of real hope,” stating, “I welcome with satisfaction, and as a sign of real hope, the announcement of an immediate two-week truce. Only by returning to negotiations can we reach the end of the war,” during his weekly audience at the Vatican.

The International Atomic Energy Agency welcomed the ceasefire and signaled readiness to support a diplomatic resolution. Director General Rafael Grossi stated, “IAEA DG Grossi welcomes … a return to diplomacy aimed at negotiating a settlement on key issues including Iran’s nuclear program.” It added: “The IAEA stands ready to support these efforts through its indispensable safeguards and verification role.”

Attacks Continue? Hormuz Status

However, attacks on Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait continued on Wednesday, hours after the ceasefire announcement. Also, there’s as yet been no significant change in navigation traffic in the Strait of Hormuz today, per Bloomberg satellite data.

A global shipping industry group representing 130 companies and around 1,500 vessels stated that conditions in the Gulf remain unstable. CEO Knut Arild Hareide said, “We note the signals of a ceasefire, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved and unpredictable.”

Airstrikes have reportedly targeted the Lavan oil refinery in Iran today. The ceasefire is seemingly in effect in name only. pic.twitter.com/PdH9CrjS6T

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 8, 2026

“It is not yet clear under what conditions safe transit can be carried out. Shipowners are assessing the situation and will not resume transits until there is real security for safe passage,” Hareide added.

Will it hold?

Ceasefire day 1:

Israel took multiple waves of Iranian missile fire after the ceasefire was announced.

Kuwait reports that more than two dozens drones were launched by Iran since 8am.

UAE is currently under an Iranian missile attack.

Iran, via state media, reports strikes…

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) April 8, 2026

Earlier, Denmark’s Maersk shipping company stated that the ceasefire announcement does not provide sufficient certainty to resume normal operations in the region.

The two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire looks more like a pause in the six-week conflict than a long-lasting agreement, with language so broad and vague that it remains unclear who conceded what. The one clear point is that Iran’s reported willingness to allow vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz was enough to send crude prices tumbling from triple-digit territory and spark a global relief rally across equities and bonds.

Everyone is breathing a sigh of relief on Wednesday morning, and traders are already identifying the companies best positioned to reap massive rewards from rebuilding damaged oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf.

Shares of Chiyoda Corporation in Tokyo jumped 15.5% as traders assessed that the developer and builder of large-scale industrial infrastructure might be one of the major players in rebuilding damaged Gulf energy assets.

Chiyoda is a project developer and builder of industrial infrastructure, including:

LNG and natural gas processing plants, one of its flagship niches

Oil refining and petrochemical facilities

Energy infrastructure and environmental systems

“Fundamentally, if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the next step is reconstruction demand for petrochemical plants, desalination plants, and other facilities,” Kazuhiro Sasaki, head of research at Phillip Securities, wrote in a note.

On Tuesday, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol told French newspaper Le Figaro that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs.

Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, wrote in a note, “It is relatively straightforward to identify the countries where reconstruction will be needed, determine the types of projects required, and match these directly to relevant Japanese companies.”

A Chiyoda spokesperson was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, “Based on the situation so far, we are considering the resumption of on-site work for the LNG project in Qatar.”

One of the most notably damaged energy assets in the Gulf region was Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, where repairs could take up to five years and cost billions of dollars. Bloomberg noted that Chiyoda receives about 46% of its revenue from Qatar.