By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy 

As another volatile week comes to an end, investors and market participants appear to be clinging to the hope that the two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which began on Wednesday, will not unravel entirely – at least until a direct, face‑to‑face exchange and clarification of key demands can take place during the planned talks in Islamabad this weekend. Near‑dated Brent crude edged up by $2 to $97, equity markets posted modest declines in Europe, whilst US stocks rose. European bond yields rose by 3–5 basis points, as UST yields dropped a few. This suggests that the powerful risk‑on move seen on Wednesday has been dented but not broken. Experts continue to stress the fragility of the ceasefire, but markets are showing slightly greater confidence than the underlying geopolitical reality might warrant.

Compared with the first day of the ceasefire – which saw Israel launch its largest‑ever strike on Hezbollah, the UAE carry out a large‑scale operation against Iran’s oil and petrochemical assets in the Gulf, and Iran respond with ballistic missile and drone attacks – yesterday’s developments were notably more contained. There were no confirmed direct US‑Iran strikes. That said, Hezbollah did fire rockets into northern Israel, and Iran formally accused the United States of violating the ceasefire due to Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon. Kuwait also accused Iran and its proxies of launching drone attacks.

Crucially, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with only a handful of Iran‑linked and/or Chinese vessels transiting the waterway. Iran indicated that it would allow no more than 15 ships per day to pass under the ceasefire agreement – hardly meaningful given that an estimated 800-900 vessels are still waiting to exit the strait. More fundamentally, the move underscores Iran’s effective control over the waterway, a message reinforced by the publication of “two safe shipping routes” by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization.

As reported earlier this week, shipowners are still grappling with whether – and under what conditions – it is safe to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Insurance is only part of the equation; the security of crews is equally critical. This raises the risk that even once ships can leave the strait to deliver cargoes to Asia and Europe, owners may remain reluctant to re‑enter the area to load new shipments. This reinforces our view that even if the war were to end – a point that remains far from certain – normalisation would not be immediate. A temporary ceasefire, clearly, is not a sufficient condition for a return to business as usual.

On that note, German Chancellor Merz has told President Trump that Germany would back a mission to secure the Strait, but that such an operation would ideally be conducted under a mandate from the UN Security Council. We’ll have to see if the US administration sees any merit in this, as it would imply Russia and China will get a clear say in the matter as well.

Following his meeting with NATO Chef Rutte – which only further exposed the rift in the alliance – Trump has demanded that countries provide concrete, operational support to US military actions – specifically through access to bases, airspace, logistics, and naval participation – rather than limiting themselves to political backing or neutrality. Trump did not issue a formal ultimatum in the meeting, but officials and media reports suggest the administration is considering concrete penalties for uncooperative allies, including redeploying or withdrawing US troops from certain NATO countries, or – more extreme – reassessing US commitments to the alliance as a whole.

President Trump has made clear that American forces will still be “hanging around” the Persian Gulf area with an eye on Iran, while demanding that the Strait of Hormuz be opened to global energy transit once again. 

Trump has vowed to keep troops positioned for a fight “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” As direct US-Iran talks are set for Islamabad Saturday morning, there’s been an avalanche of speculation that the ceasefire could be ‘cover’ for a greater Pentagon force build-up and bigger impending operation.

USAF file image

Some pundits say that Washington needed more time to get large contingencies of Marines and Airborne units in place, possibly for some kind of risky island campaign towards reopening the strait.

This could be the case, as it’s also very evident to all that the demands of each side remain far apart, which means the chances for a breakthrough deal which finally ends the war are distant.

With a two week timeline in place to reach a deal, is this interim period merely for rearming and regrouping of forces on each side?

Clearly, the US wasn’t prepared for the fierce, sustained Iranian counter-attack on American regional bases and Gulf allies.

Open-source data of military logistics flights between the US, Europe, and the Mideast region suggests there is indeed an ongoing build-up and posturing of forces happening on the eve of the Pakistan summit.

Still, it’s clear that Trump needs an offramp, or else face the kind of endless military quagmire which would likely inevitably lead to the GOP getting decimated in next fall’s midterm Congressional elections.

Case in point: More than 70 transport planes landed in the Middle East within 24 hours of the ceasefire taking effect. That scale suggests possible preparation for a ground offensive, solidifying suspicion that Trump is using the truce to regroup: https://t.co/MHlFQjz1Tk pic.twitter.com/S3DzRMgOo2

— Bashkarma🇺🇸🌏🇷🇺 (@Karmabash) April 9, 2026

A bigger longer war, or ground conflict, would also damage the chances of a future Vance presidency.

As for Vance, the Associated Press writes, “But the arrival of Vance for negotiations marks a rare moment of high-level U.S. government engagement with the Iranian government. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the most direct contact had been when President Barack Obama in September 2013 called newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to discuss Iran’s nuclear program.”

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 19% · No 82%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

A Pentagon build-up in the region might also be Trump’s way of signaling powerful leverage for more potential major attacks on Iran to come, in order to gain more from negotiations. As yet, Iran holds the key economic leverage given its de fact Hormuz control.

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, xAI, filed a lawsuit on April 9 over a Colorado law it claims makes AI developers endorse “Colorado’s views on diversity, equity, and inclusion or face significant compliance costs and civil fines.”

The chatbot Grok is the flagship product of xAI. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

The company, whose flagship product is the chatbot Grok, named Colorado Attorney General Philip Weiser as the defendant. The lawsuit states that the law’s provisions “prohibit developers of AI systems from producing speech that the State of Colorado dislikes, while compelling them to conform their speech to a State-enforced orthodoxy on controversial topics of great public concern.” The lawsuit says the Colorado law violates the First Amendment.

Weiser didn’t respond to an email seeking comment.

The lawsuit questions the use of the term “algorithmic discrimination” in the law, calling it vague.

The text of the law defines it this way: “Algorithmic discrimination means any condition in which the use of an artificial intelligence system results in unlawful differential treatment or impact that disfavors an individual or group of individuals on the basis of their actual or perceived age, color, disability, ethnicity, genetic information, limited proficiency in the English language, national origin, race, religion, reproductive health, sex, veteran status, or other classification protected under the laws of this state or federal law.”

The bill, SB24-205, was introduced in April 2024, passed the next month, and will take effect on June 30, 2026.

Colorado Senate Democrats said during debate that “algorithmic discrimination has been shown to make biased determinations in cases involving hiring practices, housing applications, financial services, and health care coverage.”

“AI systems are evolving faster than we can write and pass policy on them—which is why we need to act now,” Sen. Robert Rodriguez, a Democrat whose district spans southern Denver, said in a statement. “Many systems’ algorithms have biases baked in and can easily result in discriminatory outcomes when it comes to housing applications, hiring practices, and more.”

xAI said in its lawsuit that Grok is not biased.

“xAI has designed and developed Grok to answer to only evidence and reason, without regard to political correctness, ideological biases, or anything that might distort objective truth,” the lawsuit said.

“This unwavering commitment ensures that Grok discharges its fundamental mission—assisting humanity in understanding the universe. But the State of Colorado now seeks to force xAI to abandon its disinterested pursuit of truth and instead promote the State’s ideological views on various matters, racial justice in particular.

“It is instead an effort to embed the State’s preferred views into the very fabric of AI systems. Its provisions prohibit developers of AI systems from producing speech that the State of Colorado dislikes, while compelling them to conform their speech to a State-enforced orthodoxy on controversial topics of great public concern.”

U.S. software shares continued to slide on Friday, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) down 2.4%, as fears over AI-driven disruptions returned following a recent update from Anthropic.

In focus is software company Palantir, which has fallen from grace and is down 40% since peaking last November.

Palantir has been in the crosshairs of “Big Short” investor Michael Burry, who claimed that AI startup Anthropic is effectively “eating Palantir’s lunch.”

Burry, the founder of Scion Asset Management, has since deleted the post, which was published on X on Thursday.

Short Interest has risen significantly in recent weeks..

Countering the Palantir bears this morning was none other than President Trump, who wrote in a Truth Social post:

“Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has proven to have great war fighting capabilities and equipment. Just ask our enemies!!! President DJT.”

PLTR shares immediately surged after the president’s comments, with the stock bottoming around $123 before moving higher to about $127. Shares are still down around 2% on the session…

Burry continued in the deleted post: “PLTR can have government, which is low margin and small,” adding that while Anthropic is scaling at lightning speed, “it took $PLTR 20 years to get to $5 Billion.”

Authored by Luis Cornelio via HeadlineUSA,

President Donald Trump minced no words in a lengthy and fiery rebuke of podcast hosts Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens and Alex Jones amid their criticisms over the U.S.’s military operations in Iran. 

President Donald Trump speaks before signing an executive order barring transgender female athletes from competing in women’s or girls’ sporting events, in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

“They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too! Look at their past, look at their record. They don’t have what it takes, and they never did!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

His comments come as part of a 482-word takedown that directly accuses Carlson, Kelly, Owens and Jones of seemingly stirring controversy for views engagement. 

“They’ve all been thrown off Television, lost their Shows, and aren’t even invited on TV because nobody cares about them, they’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some ‘free’ and cheap publicity,” Trump added. 

pic.twitter.com/S08mFUxUmR

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 9, 2026

His comments follow some of these hosts taking issue with Trump’s warning to Iran that a “whole civilization will die tonight” over Easter weekend if the Islamic regime did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

“Now it’s time to say no, absolutely not, and say it directly to the president, no,” Carlson said, for instance. 

Trump targeted each individual with personalized criticism, saying that Carlson “couldn’t even finish college” and was a “broken man when he got fired from Fox.” 

Trump also targeted Kelly, saying she “nastily asked me the now famous ‘Only Rosie O’Donnell,’” and then slammed Owens as “‘crazy.” 

Trump also referenced the past controversy surrounding Owens’ dubious claims that French First Lady Brigitte Macron is transgender. 

“Actually, to me, the First Lady of France is a far more beautiful woman than Candace, in fact, it’s not even close!” Trump continued. 

Trump also criticized Jones, calling him “Bankrupt Alex Jones” and saying he “says some of the dumbest things, and lost his entire fortune, as he should have, for his horrendous attack on the families of the Sandy Hook shooting victims, ridiculously claiming it was a hoax.” 

“These so-called ‘pundits’ are LOSERS, and they will always be!” Trump said. 

* * *

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While the March UMich sentiment survey was completed before and after the start of the Iran War (with only modest impacts on sentiment and inflation expectations), today’s preliminary April data survey period was all in the war with expectations for a notable drop in sentiment and sizable jump in inflation expectations.

It turns out the expectations were right in direction but underestimated the scale as headline sentiment plunged from 53.3 to 47.6 (far worse than the 51.5 exp) with Current Conditions (50.1 vs 53.4 exp vs 55.8 prior) and Expectations (46.1 vs 50.2 exp vs 51.7 prior)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is a record low for the headline sentiment and Current Conditions and lowest print for Expectations since 1980.

Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall.

One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April.

Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025, but longer-term expectations rose only modestly…

Of course, it’s Democrats that are ‘panicans’ once again at inflation (Dems +4.8%, Reps +1.0%)…

One thing of note in that chart – how is the overall inflation expectation screaming higher (to equal Democrats’ view) with the actual breakdown by political cohort showing no huge rise?

Finally, on the potential bright side, UMich Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu notes that “98% of interviews were completed prior to the April 7th announcement of a temporary cease-fire. Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated.“

In a huge and very positive development, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has announced a 32-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, or Pascha, which is this weekend. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has immediately confirmed that Ukraine will honor the holiday truce. 

“We proceed on the basis that the Ukrainian side will follow the example of the Russian Federation,” the Kremlin then further confirmed in a statement.

Pravoslavie.Ru

Based on regional media reporting of the rare ceasefire, the pause in fighting will begin at 4pm Moscow time (13:00GMT) on Saturday and run until midnight on Sunday.

This will cover the whole period of Pascha celebrations in both countries, which is done according to the Julian calendar and thus typically comes a weekend or two later that Western Easter (on the Gregorian calendar). The overwhelming majorities of both countries are adherents of the Eastern Orthodox Church.

Typically in orthodox churches there is a long Saturday morning service, and then the main liturgy comes at midnight – going into the early Sunday morning hours, followed by feasting and breaking the Lenten fast. And then late Sunday morning or early after noon there is another service, after which there is more celebratory feasting.

Russian media reports that Defense Minister Andrei Belousov has instructed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to halt Russian military operations during the period; however, just like in past short truces Russia says it will respond immediately to any ‘violations’ observed.

Zelensky meanwhile confirmed that “Ukraine has repeatedly stated that we are ready for reciprocal steps. We proposed a ceasefire during the Easter holiday this year and will act accordingly.”

“People need an Easter without threats and a real move towards peace, and Russia has a chance not to return to attacks even after Easter,” he added.

Such a holiday truce has been tried in the past, but is typically marred by frontline ‘violations’ and tit-for-tat accusations and denunciations.

But this year, after well over four years of brutal fighting which has taken likely hundreds of thousands of lives, there is a good chance the Easter truce will hold given the sheer exhaustion and war-weariness on each side.

Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill at the Christ the Savior Cathedral. Creative Commons photo, prior illustrative

What’s more is that if there is success, it could provide the basis for something more lasting, as both sides say they are still interested in hammering out a permanent end to the war. But for Moscow, this will require that Ukraine cede much of the east and give political recognition too, including over Crimea.

Without providing any elaboration or context, President Trump just posted the following to his social media feed:

No idea what he is talking about?

Pressure on China (multiple chokepoints on energy supply)?

Chatter on Russia-Ukraine talks?

America First, maybe?

4-D Chess or another fantastical plan?

Any ideas?

Apple is permanently closing three mall-based stores in the coming months: Apple North County in California, Apple Trumbull in Connecticut, and Apple Towson Town Center in Maryland, which is the company’s first unionized store.

“Following the departure of several retailers and declining conditions at Trumbull Mall, the Shops at North County, and Towson Town Center, we’ve made the difficult decision to close our stores at these locations,” Apple told computer blog AppleInsider in a statement. 

Most workers will be transferred to nearby stores if they choose to remain with Apple, while unionized Towson employees will need to apply for open roles under the current bargaining agreement.

Apple wouldn’t provide additional color on what exactly those “declining conditions” were, such as whether they involved a slowdown in foot traffic or thefts.

Focusing on the unionized Towson location, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers reacted furiously to Apple’s decision. The move suggests that Tim Cook has little interest in bending the knee to lefty union pressure.

APPLE STORE CLOSURES | Apple announced its closing 3 locations, inside malls or shopping plazas across the country, on Thursday.
1/3 locations is Towson Town Center. The union representing the workers in Towson says they’re outraged. Doors set to close on June 11. @wbaltv11 pic.twitter.com/M9m3CZnqYQ

— Tori Yorgey WBAL (@toriyorgeytv) April 10, 2026

“The IAM Union is outraged by Apple’s decision to close its Towson, Md., store — the first unionized Apple retail location in the United States — and abandon both its workers and a community that relies on it for critical services and its unique access to public transit,” the union wrote in a statement to the outlet. 

IAM continued:

Apple’s claim that the collective bargaining agreement prevents relocation is simply false and raises serious concerns that this closure is a cynical attempt to bust the union.

We are exploring all legal options and will work with elected officials and allies to hold Apple accountable. We stand with our IAM Coalition of Organized Retail Employees (IAM CORE) members and the community that depends on this store for essential access and support.”

Apple appears to be sending a very clear message to workers considering the union route: go down that path, and you may end up like the Towson store.

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Humanity’s first mission around the Moon in more than 50 years is coming home the way of a meteor.

NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch—as well as Jeremy Hansen of the Canadian Space Agency—will reenter Earth’s atmosphere in their Orion spacecraft Integrity at approximately 7:53 p.m. on April 10.

Artemis II’s 10-day journey beyond the moon to the farthest point away from Earth that humans have traveled will end with the astronauts’ ride in a fireball through the sky and splashdown in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego at approximately 8:07 p.m.

This is the pinnacle of the adventure that Glover has been thinking about since he got assigned to the mission on April 3, 2023, and NASA officials have been thinking about it since even before that.

After Artemis I, the Orion spacecraft’s heat shield and reentry trajectory went through a drastic redesign.

NASA’s associate administrator, Amit Kshatriya, affirmed on April 9 that the crew and everyone involved were confident in Integrity’s systems.

Reentry Timeline

NASA’s Rick Henfling will be the flight director at mission control during reentry and splashdown, and he outlined the course of events ahead of the mission’s dramatic conclusion.

11:35 a.m. EDT—The crew will wake up and start their day. They will make final preparations and configure the cabin for reentry as Integrity gets closer to home and travels faster and faster.

Those preparations include donning the orange-and-blue pressure suits they wore for launch and stowing all remaining loose equipment for reentry. One final course correction burn is also scheduled.

7:33 p.m.—Integrity’s Orion crew module will separate from its European Service module—the deep-space workhorse that kept Artemis II on course, provided power and life support, and offered exterior vantage points from which photographs were taken and shared with the world.

Shortly after separation, the crew capsule will fire its own thrusters to optimize its reentry angle and distance itself from the service module, which is now doomed and will burn up in the atmosphere.

7:53 p.m.—Integrity starts its reentry at an altitude of 400,000 feet, nearly 2,000 miles southwest of its landing zone in the Pacific Ocean. The astronauts will be falling backward, so the capsule’s heat shield is facing forward, and upside down, so the crew can see the horizon line.

An infographic featuring the Artemis II Orion lofted entry sequence, presented by Artemis II Flight Director Rick Henfling during the mission status briefing to the media and public at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston on April 8, 2026. NASA

The spacecraft must hit the Earth’s atmosphere at the right angle to pass through safely.

Fight director Jeff Radigan told reporters on April 9 that Mission Control was continuing to review data and telemetry to ensure that Artemis II remains on course.

“We got less than a degree of angle that we need to hit,” Radigan said. “We’ve got a little bit of wiggle room. We don’t plan to use that.”

Artemis II is expected to reach a top speed of 34,965 feet per second, approximately 23,864 mph, just short of the mission’s overall top speed of approximately 24,500 mph.

This means they will fail to break Apollo 10’s record-setting speed of 36,397 feet per second, or 24,816 mph.

Radigan told The Epoch Times that Artmeis II’s return home would be very similar to the Apollo mission that came before it. They are essentially coming straight down and much faster compared with reentries from low-Earth orbit.

Integrity will essentially become a man-made meteor, engulfed in a ball of fire and plasma and facing temperatures of up to 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit as it rips through the atmosphere.

The crew inside is expected to experience g-forces of 3.9. That is 3.9 times the force of normal gravity on Earth.

However, Henfling said that type of g-force would be experienced during a nominal trajectory. If the crew had to take any of the contingency trajectories mapped out, they could experience g-forces of up to 7.5.

Their capsule will perform multiple roll reversal maneuvers to distribute heat evenly across the heat shield and help slow down.

However, they will not be piloting the capsule. Radigan confirmed that although the crew has been trained and is capable of taking control if necessary, Integrity’s computer will fly the crew home.

Mission Control expects to lose contact with Integrity 24 seconds after entry interface.

Henfling said that as plasma builds up around the spacecraft, it interferes with telemetry. That blackout is expected to last about six minutes.

7:59 p.m.—Integrity will reacquire signal with Mission Control and will be down to an altitude of about 150,000 feet and falling.

About nine minutes into reentry, Earth’s atmosphere will slow the Orion capsule to subsonic speeds.

8:03 p.m.—Integrity drops to about 22,000 feet, and drogue parachutes deploy.

At about 6,000 feet, the main parachutes will deploy.

8:07 p.m.—Artemis II splashes down in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego. In 13 minutes, Integrity will have slowed from approximately 25,000 mph to just 20 mph.

8:22 p.m.—Wiseman, Glover, Koch, and Hansen power down Integrity.

Recovery Operations

Artemis II will be recovered in a joint operation between NASA and the Department of War. The USS John P. Murtha, the recovery ship, left port in San Diego on April 7 to assume its position and await recovery.

The targeted time to extract the astronauts from the capsule is 9:06 p.m.

The USS John P. Murtha pictured with an Orion crew capsule during a recovery test in preparation for NASA’s Artemis I uncrewed test flight on March 14, 2020. NASA

Debbie Korth, Orion deputy program manager, said the goal is to have the crew out of the capsule and on the recovery ship within two hours after splashdown.

They will also have several aircraft circling the area to get eyes on the returning craft as soon as possible.

Divers will arrive on-scene first and open the hatch.

Medical personnel will then enter the capsule to assess the crew. Hansen will be reached first, followed by Wiseman, then Koch, and Glover.

Once everyone is cleared by the medics, Koch will be the first to leave the capsule, followed by Glover, then Hansen.

Wiseman, Artemis II’s commander, will be the last to step outside.

The crew will then be lifted into helicopters and transferred to the recovery ship in the same order they left Integrity.

Once aboard, they will be taken to a medical bay for further evaluation.

That whole process is expected to take at least 40 minutes.

Meanwhile, teams will remain on-site to secure Integrity, which will be towed aboard the recovery ship via its amphibious transport dock.

The crew is scheduled to fly back to Johnson Space Center in Houston between 12 and 24 hours after recovery, and their Orion capsule will be trucked across the country to Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

All of the remaining science the crew collected, including images yet to be downlinked and the biological experiments, such as the AVATAR project, which flew on board to learn how deep space affects human health, will be sent off to their respective teams for analysis.

“We have to get back,” Glover said during a call with the media on April 8. “There’s so much data that you’ve seen already, but all of the good stuff is coming back with us.”