One day after Goldman Sachs reported its highest profit in 5 years (despite an ugly miss in FICC revenues), this morning JPMorgan impressed with just as solid results, when it reported that its Q1 profits rose 13% as the bank benefited from soaring market volatility and frantic trading amid the war with Iran and the US military operation in Venezuela.

The largest US bank reported net income of $16.5bn, beating analyst estimates of a $15.2bn print, up from $14.6bn a year ago and the bank’s second-best quarter ever. Its best quarter remains the $18.1bn the bank earned in the second quarter of 2024 when JPMorgan benefited from a one-off gain from the sale of its stake in Visa. 

One-upping Goldman, JPM reported the best quarter for trading in the bank’s history, boosted by the swings in equity and fixed income markets caused by geopolitical shocks. And unlike Goldman, JPM’s FICC also came in much stronger than expected; in fact at $7.1bn it was the second biggest FICC revenue on record.  

The bank reported total trading revenues of $11.6bn, up 20% from the first quarter a year ago, which is a seasonally strong period for the business. It was the highest figure on record for the bank, beating its previous record from 2020.

Revenues from FICC rose 21% to $7.1bn, and beating estimates of $6.7bn; As we reported yesterday, Rival Goldman Sachs on Monday fell far short of what investors were anticipating from its fixed-income business. JPMorgan’s equities trading revenues also rose more than expected, up 17.5% to $4.5bn, and above estimates of $4.31bn. 

Investment-banking fees of $2.88 billion also beat analysts’ expectations of $2.6 billion: this was JPM’s best quarter for the business since the end of 2021. It just beat the $2.8 bilion reported by rival Goldman Sachs on Monday, but Goldman’s year-on-year increase was higher at nearly 50%. Dealmakers advising on mergers and acquisitions were the standout, notching an 82% jump to $1.27 billion. Equity underwriting also rose more than expected to $472 million, while a 7% drop in debt-underwriting fees came in line with estimates.  

Here is the top highlights from the company’s Q1 results, which also handily beat expectations:

Adjusted revenue $50.54 billion, beating estimates $49.26 billion

FICC sales & trading revenue $7.08 billion, +21% y/y, beating estimate $6.65 billion
Equities sales & trading revenue $4.48 billion, +17.5% y/y, beating estimates $4.31 billion
Investment banking revenue $3.14 billion, +38% y/y, beating estimate $2.73 billion
Advisory revenue $1.27 billion, +82% y/y, beating estimate $1.01 billion
Equity underwriting rev. $472 million, +46% y/y, beating estimate $453.2 million
Debt underwriting rev. $1.15 billion, -6.9% y/y, matching estimate $1.15 billion

JPM also reported managed Net Interest Income (ex. Markets) of $25.48BN, up 9% YoY, and above estimates of $25.18BN, driven by higher deposit balances, as well as higher revolving balances in Card Services, predominantly offset by the impact of lower rates. Costs, meanwhile, were $26.9 billion in the quarter, higher than expected. JPMorgan said in February that it expects to spend about $105 billion this year, excluding legal expenses, and it reaffirmed that figure Tuesday.

Commenting on the quarter, the bank’s CEO Jamie Dimon said the firm delivered strong results in 1Q and consumer spending was still strong, businesses were healthy and the US economy “remained resilient”.

“Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment and the Fed’s asset purchases,” Dimon said in a statement alongside the bank’s earnings. 

“At the same time, there is an increasingly complex set of risks — such as geopolitical tensions and wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. “While we cannot predict how these risks and uncertainties will ultimately play out, they are significant and reinforce why we prepare the Firm for a wide range of environments,” he said

As usual, JPM paraded with its “fortress balance sheet”…

… with the following key updates for Q1:

Net yield on interest-earning assets 2.5%, estimate 2.57%
Standardized CET1 ratio 14.3%
Managed overhead ratio 53%, estimate 52.8%
Return on equity 19%, estimate 17.3%
Return on tangible common equity 23%, estimate 20.7%
Assets under management $4.79 trillion, estimate $4.89 trillion
Tangible book value per share $108.87, estimate $109.28
Book value per share $128.38, estimate $129.35
Cash and due from banks $22.04 billion, estimate $21.74 billion
Loans $1.50 trillion, below estimates of $1.5 trillion
Total deposits $2.68 trillion, above estimates of $2.58 trillion
Provision for credit losses $2.51 billion
Net charge-offs $2.32 billion, below estimate $2.63 billion

And some other notable highlights from the quarter: 

Compensation expenses $15.34 billion, estimate $15.04 billion
Non-interest expenses $26.85 billion, estimate $26.03 billion

Of note, JPMorgan increased the reserves set aside for potentially soured loans by only $191 million in the first quarter, less than analysts expected. That included a net build for the wholesale side, partially offset by a net release in consumer. With JPMorgan’s net charge offs coming in below estimates, it appears that JPM was positioned well for the ongoing private credit meltdown.

“In the great scheme of things, private credit probably does not present a systemic risk,” Dimon wrote in his annual letter to shareholders earlier this month. “When we have a credit cycle, which will happen one day, losses on all leveraged lending in general will be higher than expected, relative to the environment. This is because credit standards have been modestly weakening pretty much across the board.”

The $1.8 trillion private-credit industry has been a focal point amid mounting concern that redemption requests and fears over the impact of artificial intelligence will weigh on the sector. For banks, that’s translated to investor questions about their lending to the industry. Earlier this year, JPMorgan marked down the value of certain loans that serve as collateral against the bank’s loans to private-credit funds. 

Jamie Dimon said losses in private credit will have to be “very large” before banks like JPMorgan Chase face a significant hit from it. “You’ll have very large losses in private credit before, at least it looks like, banks can get hit or something like that,” Dimon told analysts. “So it doesn’t mean you won’t feel some stress and strain, and you might have to do something about it. But I’m not particularly worried about it. I’d be more worried about when there’s a credit cycle, how’s that going to filter through the whole system.”

JPM CFO Jeremy Barnum said the bank is “reasonably comfortable” with its exposure to private credit, but cautioned that losses will increase if the credit cycle turns. He told reporters that “we’re reasonably comfortable with our exposure. But obviously, if you see a big credit cycle with significant increase in default rates, you’re going to see some losses across the whole system, including banks. And that’s just part of the business.”

Wealthy investors attempted to pull more than $20bn from private credit funds in the first quarter, underscoring the growing strain on an asset class that had boomed into a dominant force on Wall Street.

But while its earnings were solid across the board, one reason why JPM stock dipped in kneejerk reaction and was currently unchanged is that the bank trimmed its forecast for net interest income for 2026. JPMorgan said it expected net interest income of about $103bn this year, down from the $104.5bn it forecast in February. Net interest income was almost $96bn in 2025. Excluding lending in its trading division, JPMorgan left unchanged its guidance for net interest income this year of around $95bn. 

Shares traded about 3% lower in the immediate aftermath of JPMorgan’s results announcement, but recovered some of their losses to trade less than 1% below Monday’s close.

Full earnings presentation below (pdf link)

JPM Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation by Zerohedge

Summary

Diplomacy is not yet dead, as Bloomberg reports Iran is mulling a short-term pause to shipments through Hormuz Strait, in order to avoid a fresh clash with US forces & avoid testing Trump’s blockade.

Mediators are scrambling to put together another round of US-Iran talks in the coming days: Iran is reportedly offering a 5-year moratorium on nuclear program, while US demands 20.

Saudis are among those calling for an end to the US blockade of the Hormuz Strait, amid fears the Houthis could shut down Bab al-Mandeb strait. Chinese ship testing America’s Hormuz blockade appears to U-turn.

Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejects upcoming talks between the Lebanese government and Israel, which are set for 11am in Washington, DC on Tuesday.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 60% · No 40%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Iran Could Pause Hormuz Shipping, As Chinese Tanker U-Turns

Bloomberg says Tuesday in a fresh report that “Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks, according to a person familiar with the Tehran’s deliberations.”

“The potential pause reflects a desire to avoid immediate escalation at a sensitive diplomatic juncture as Washington and Tehran sort logistics for another face-to-face meeting, the person said, asking not to be identified as the deliberations are private,” continues Bloomberg. It adds, “Holding back maritime activity for several days is seen as one possible, pragmatic step to prevent an incident that could undermine the fragile efforts to revive discussions, people familiar with the matter said.”

This would be seen as short-term de-escalation, and suggests that Tehran indeed still has the desire of taking a hopeful, pragmatic approach – rather than returning the all out war by the close of the temporary ceasefire. No one is willing to completely shut the door on all diplomacy, and the bombs have been silent across the Gulf and in Iran and Israel. Per latest emerging reports:

The Nasdaq 100 looked set to notch its longest streak of gains since 2021 as optimism that the US and Iran are considering another round of peace talks pushed oil lower and lifted stocks globally.

Chinese ship testing America’s Hormuz blockade appears to U-turn…

More tracking data via MarineTraffic:

Two tankers turn away from Strait of Hormuz after US blockade begins

At least two tankers reversed course near the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the start of the US blockade, highlighting the immediate impact on vessel movements. According to #MarineTraffic data, the 188-metre… pic.twitter.com/dRNi7yEgJI

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) April 13, 2026

5-Years vs. 20-Year Nuclear Moratorium

More info and color has been added in the wake of failed talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan, per The New York Times citing officials from both countries. Iran signaled Monday it would halt uranium enrichment for up to five years. The Trump administration rejected the offer, according to two senior Iranian officials and one US official who spoke to the Times.

The US position, shaped in part by Vice President JD Vance, calls for a roughly 20-year suspension. Vance has argued such a timeframe is necessary to permanently limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities. “The Iranians, in a formal response sent on Monday, said they would agree to up to five years, according to two senior Iranian officials and one U.S. official. Trump has rejected that offer, the U.S. official said,” writes NY Times.

“The official said the U.S. has also asked Iran to remove highly enriched uranium from the country, and the Iranians have insisted the fuel stays inside Iran. But they have offered to dilute it significantly, so that it could not be used to produce a nuclear weapon,” the report adds.

Sides Could Return to Islamabad for Talks

This behind the scenes back-and-forth suggests that the mediated talks might not be entirely over, also as the clock ticks away on the initial 2-week ceasefire, now a week in. US and Iranian negotiating teams plan to return to Pakistan later this week to resume talks aimed at ending the Gulf war, Pakistani and Iranian officials said Tuesday, as cited in Reuters. Other reports say the talks could be hosted in another venue.

However, US officials have not confirmed the plans, and the reality is that in Islamabad the two sides demands were very far apart, having reportedly finally collapsed on the nuclear issue.

Israel-Lebanon talks are taking a separate track, set to begin in Washington Tuesday, but Hezbollah has rejected this process – with only the Lebanese government represented.

⚡️Israel firing flares in the sky of Tyre, Lebanon pic.twitter.com/EPOhKAlXJ5

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 13, 2026

France’s President Emmanuel Macron is among those calling on Washington and Tehran to urgently resume negotiations to end the war, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “without controls or tolls, as soon as possible.” Iran is reportedly charging steep tolls to let a handful of ‘friendly’ countries’ vessels through – a situation which President Trump has warned against.

Saudis Push Trump To Call Off Hormuz Blockade

The NY Times has on Tuesday highlighted that “Questions over the status of the U.S. military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz persisted on Tuesday, as tracking data showed that several ships had passed through the waterway, including some that had departed from Iran.”

The Wall Street Journal reported Monday evening that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is urging the Trump administration to reverse its newly implemented blockade of Iranian-linked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, on immediate fears that Iranian escalation could halt Red Sea traffic. On Sunday, a senior adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran has “large, untouched levers” to respond to such a blockade.

Arab officials who spoke to the Journal said Iran could retaliate by shutting down the Bab al-Mandeb, a 20-mile-wide, 70-mile-long choke point linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Iran could do so by leveraging the Houthis, the political and military organization that controls much of Yemen.

Saudi Arabia recently has been able to get its oil exports back up to their prewar level of around seven million barrels a day despite the blockage in the strategic strait by piping its crude across the desert to the Red Sea. Those supplies would be at risk if the Red Sea’s exit route were closed as well. — WSJ

NEW: US blockade on Iranian ports begins, but tanker traffic through Hormuz continues uninterrupted, with vessels including Peace Gulf, Murlikishan, and Rich Starry, including sanctioned ships, still transiting as long as they are not calling at Iranian ports.

– Reuters pic.twitter.com/K76oyJbZOv

— Levent Kemal (@leventkemaI) April 14, 2026

“If Iran does want to shut down Bab al-Mandeb, the Houthis are the obvious partner to do it, and their response to the Gaza conflict demonstrates that they have the capacity to do it,” Adam Baron, an expert on Yemen at the New America policy institute, told the Journal.

More Geopolitical Latest

via Newsquawk…

The next round of talks between the United States and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to an Iranian embassy official in Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said it has offered to host a second round of U.S.–Iran negotiations, but no date or time has been set.
Pakistani journalist Mallick said, “While Islamabad has offered to host the next round of in person talks between US and Iran, which could be held at a working level, to my understanding, date and venue for the next round has not been finalised as yet”.
The United States and Iran are discussing another round of face-to-face talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire after Islamabad negotiations ended without a deal.
Officials aim to meet again before the two-week ceasefire expires next week, according to Clash report.
The Associated Press reported that a second round of talks is likely and could take place on Thursday.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance said progress was made in talks with Iran and stated that things did not go wrong.
Vance said Iran moved in the U.S. direction but not far enough.
Vance said the ball is in Iran’s court and that U.S. red lines were clearly communicated.
The United States and Iran left the door open to further dialogue after tense Islamabad talks.
A source said the sides came “very close” to an agreement and were “80% there” before hitting unresolved issues.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told French President Emmanuel Macron in a Monday phone call that Iran will negotiate only under international law.
Pezeshkian said unreasonable U.S. demands blocked an agreement in weekend talks.
He said a lack of U.S. goodwill and maximalist positions prevented finalizing a deal in Islamabad, according to IRNA.
Pezeshkian said diplomacy remains the preferred path to resolve disputes.
An Iranian National Security Committee spokesman said the end of the truce should not lead to its extension, according to Al Mayadeen.
The U.S. aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush is sailing off the coast of Africa toward the Middle East to join Operation Epic Fury, according to two U.S. officials cited by The Wall Street Journal.
Saudi Arabia is pressing the United States to drop its Hormuz blockade.
Gulf energy exporters warn Iran could escalate by closing the Bab al-Mandeb, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Alarms sounded in the Galilee Panhandle over concerns of potential UAV infiltration.
A Lebanese source said, “The official mandate of Lebanon’s ambassador in Washington is limited to pursuing a ceasefire with Israel”, according to Al Jazeera.
Switzerland is ready to support diplomatic initiatives between the United States and Iran.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that preventing further fighting is critical.
Lavrov said Moscow is on high alert to assist in a settlement.
Araghchi warned of dangerous consequences from U.S. actions.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors for talks on Tuesday.
The talks aim to secure a ceasefire, Hezbollah disarmament, and a peace agreement, according to Axios.
A meeting between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors will take place Tuesday at 18:00 EDT / 23:00 BST, according to Al Jazeera citing Israeli Channel 15.
Chinese President Xi Jinping issued four proposals to maintain peace in the Middle East, according to Chinese media.
UK Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Washington.
Lammy urged that the Iran ceasefire hold and emphasized the importance of free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

A Reuters report stated that United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby “pitched” a merger with American Airlines during a recent meeting with President Trump. Shares of both carriers rose in premarket trading in New York following the report.

Two sources told the outlet that merger discussions took place during a February 25 White House meeting with Trump about the future of Dulles Airport, just three days before the U.S.-Iran conflict sent jet fuel prices skyrocketing.

Kirby said that a combined United-American airline would be better positioned to compete internationally. He said that the merger of the two carriers would strengthen U.S. competitiveness globally.

It is unclear whether United made a formal approach to American or whether negotiations were underway, but one thing is certain: most domestic carriers, except Delta Air Lines, have been hit by soaring jet fuel costs.

Wells Fargo analyst Christian Wetherbee noted, “This idea furthers our belief that the fuel shock presents an opportunity for United and Delta to emerge better positioned, potentially suggesting upside to out-year estimates.”

Wetherbee said a potential merger between United and American could be too large, as the combined carrier would control around 40% of domestic capacity without divestitures.

As an alternative, Wetherbee suggested JetBlue could emerge as a smaller, more realistic target if American rejected United, giving United valuable assets in New York and Florida with less regulatory fallout.

Reuters spoke with antitrust lawyer Seth Bloom, who said a United-American merger would be unlikely to clear regulatory hurdles.

“The administration has said it really cares about the issues that affect the consumer’s pocketbook, and this would give the airlines more pricing power,” Bloom said.

American traded up 9% in premarket, while United was up around 2%. The broader S&P 500 Passenger Airline Index is down 7.5% year to date amid the jet-fuel shock stemming from the Middle East conflict.

In mid-March, UBS analyst Atul Maheswari asked whether a possible bottom had formed in airline stocks. Read the note here.

President Trump’s four-and-a-half-month crusade across the Western Hemisphere, and now into the Middle East, increasingly looks like a massive blitz to acquire – or control – energy assets and maritime chokepoints as part of a broader economic pressure campaign against China, which depends heavily on the Gulf and Venezuelan crude. 

“Chokepoint after chokepoint: the administration is methodically building a portfolio of assets that they are stacking against China: the Panama Canal, which is the only exit route for oil and gas from the Gulf of Mexico to China; Venezuela and her oil that used to go to China; Kharg Island and Iran’s oil which used to go to China, and SoH through which Iran’s and all Arab countries’ oil used to go everywhere but mostly to China,” Zoltan Pozsar of advisory firm Ex Uno Plures wrote in a March note.

Pozsar’s view is important because, when placed alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping’s comments earlier today that the world is slipping into “disarray,” the larger picture comes into sharp focus.

“The international order is crumbling into disarray,” Xi told Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in Beijing. He used a Chinese expression indicating not only chaos but also moral decay. 

What Xi calls disorder increasingly looks like the unwinding of the global order that allowed China to roam freely across markets, resources, and trade corridors for years. In the Trump era, that ability appears to have been systematically dismantled – to some degree – in just four months.

Xi’s comments are his first public statements on the US-Iran conflict, as new economic data overnight show the conflict took a sharp toll on Chinese exports in March.

China has criticized Trump’s military action against Iran and called the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “dangerous and irresponsible,” while warning it could respond if Washington links the conflict to a new round of tariffs on Chinese exports.

For more context, about half of China’s crude imports came from the Gulf/Middle East before the war disruption. Reuters reported the region accounted for 52% of China’s oil imports. That share recently fell to 31% as Hormuz-related disruptions forced China to replace crude supplies with imports from Brazil and Russia.

Pozsar noted: “Again, the game is not to control Venezuela and Iran to choke China…”

And you might ask why Trump is squeezing China. Well, as Pozsar pointed out, “The aim is not to deny energy to China. The aim is to level the playing field between the two countries. To be blunt, in ways I couldn’t be at Credit Suisse: if you fuck me on rare earths, I fuck you on energy.”

President Trump has previously said his meeting with Xi in Beijing was pushed to May because of the conflict. The question now is whether Washington and Beijing can still strike a deal.

The month-over-month change in producer prices had accelerated for five straight months ahead of today’s March data, which is expected to surge thanks to Iran-war impacts on energy costs.

Against expectations of a 1.1% MoM rise, March’s Headline PPI shocked everyone by rising only 0.5% MoM (equal to the revised lower 0.5% MoM rise in both of the last two months). This pushed PPI up 4.0% YoY (the highest since Feb 2023) but well below the +4.6% YoY exp…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy dominated the increase…

But the Energy PPI index appears to have ‘underperformed’ relative to oil…

Source: Bloomberg

PPI Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods increased 1.6%, the largest rise since August 2023. Most of the March advance can be traced to prices for final demand energy, which jumped 8.5%. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.2% In contrast, prices for final demand foods declined 0.3 percent.

Product detail: Nearly half of the March advance in the index for final demand goods is attributable to a 15.7% rise in gasoline prices. The indexes for diesel fuel, jet fuel, home heating oil, meats, and primary basic organic chemicals also increased. Conversely, prices for fresh and dry vegetables fell 10.7%. The indexes for natural gas and for carbon steel scrap also decreased.

PPI Final demand services: The index for final demand services was unchanged in March following a 0.3% advance in February. In March, price increases of 1.3% for final demand transportation and warehousing services and 0.1% for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing offset a 0.3% decline in margins for final demand trade services.

Product detail: Within final demand services in March, prices for airline passenger services rose 2.8%. The indexes for food retailing; apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; outpatient care (partial); and truck transportation of freight also moved higher. In contrast, margins for food and alcohol wholesaling fell 6.0%. The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing; securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice; deposit services (partial); and brokerage fees and commissions for residential property agreements also decreased.

However, in a similar manner to CPI, we see Core Producer prices (ex-food-and-energy) rising just 0.1% MoM (dramatically cooler than +0.4% MoM exp). This pulled the Core PPI YoY down from +3.9% to +3.8%…

Source: Bloomberg

So that’s all ‘good news’.

Here’s the bad news… the pipeline for inflation is accelerating significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems the panic over energy fears sparking massive inflation (in March) was overdone (again). 

For now, the market continues to price in a higher chance of a rate-cut next than rate-hike.

US equity futures, and global stocks rise while oil slides on a Reuters report that negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week to resume negotiations to end the war in the Gulf, days after the first peace talks ended without a breakthrough, with chatter from Pakistani media that Trump is said to be in attendance. As of 8:00am ET,  S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.4%, as the cash index braces for a 10th straight day of gains, its longest streak of gains since 2021, with all Mag 7 stocks higher in premarket trading (Alphabet +0.9%, Amazon +0.7%, Apple +0.2%, Nvidia +0.6%, Meta Platforms +1.2%, Microsoft +1.1%, Tesla +1.9%) as tech / semis outperform other sectors; Cyclicals ex-Energy are leading Defensives. The risk-on rally is poised to continue today with the dollar weaker for a 7th day in a row while Treasuries were little changed. Gold rose 0.7% toward $4,800 an ounce. Bitcoin hit a four-week high. Brent fell 0.4% to below $99 a barrel, with the International Energy Agency estimating that the war will wipe out global oil demand growth for the first time since the 2020 pandemic, selling was boosted by Iran de-escalation hopes; Ags remain bid and precious metals continue to move inversely to the Dollar. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP, Small Biz Survey, and PPI. Headline PPI (YoY expected to increase from 3.4% to 4.6%) is expected to see a significant jump with Core PPI (YoY expected to increase from 3.5% to 3.8%) increases more muted. Big banks report Q1 earnings today with consumer health the key macro read-through.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all higher (Alphabet +0.9%, Amazon +0.7%, Apple +0.2%, Nvidia +0.6%, Meta Platforms +1.2%, Microsoft +1.1%, Tesla +1.9%)

American Airlines (AAL) rises 7% as United Airlines Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby has floated a possible combination with the carrier, according to people familiar with the conversations. Shares of United Airlines (UAL) are up 2.7%.
Bloom Energy (BE) rises 14% after the fuel cell company expanded its partnership with Oracle to support rapid buildout of AI and cloud computing infrastructure.
CarMax (KMX) falls 4% after the company said profit per vehicle sold to retail customers will continue to decline, and expanded its cost-cutting target.
Credo Technology (CRDO) is up 19% after the communications equipment company agreed to acquire DustPhotonics, a Silicon Photonics PIC technology developer.
Dell Technologies (DELL) and HP Inc. (HPQ) both slip 2% after Nvidia Corp. denied a report that it was seeking an acquisition of a large company that would “reshape the PC landscape.”
Globalstar Inc. (GSAT) gains 8% as Amazon.com Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire the satellite operator in a deal that would boost the tech giant’s efforts to build its own satellite operation, according to people familiar with the matter.
Lucid (LCID) rises 6% after the electric vehicle company announced a $200 million investment from Uber and a $550 million commitment from a PIF affiliate in convertible preferred shares.
Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) soars 43% after the drugmaker said the US FDA approved Filspari (sparsentan) to help treat a rare kidney disease.
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) slips 2% after the bank missed analysts’ estimates for its primary income streams in the first quarter, with net interest income totaling $12.1 billion and non-interest income coming in at $9.35 billion.

In corporate news, United Airlines CEO is said to have floated a possible combination with American Airlines, and pitched the idea to senior government officials. Amazon is said to be in advanced talks to acquire Globalstar, in a deal that would boost the tech giant’s efforts to rival Starlink.

Overnight sentiment improved on a Reuters report that the US and Iran are weighing negotiations to extend a two-week ceasefire as President Trump presses ahead with a naval blockade to curb the Islamic Republic’s oil exports. The objective is to hold fresh discussions before the truce expires, according to people familiar. The parties could return to Islamabad for talks this week, Reuters reported. There was more good news after Bloomberg reported that Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks, according to a person familiar with the Tehran’s deliberations.

“Markets were already leaning toward the view that diplomacy would stay alive in some form,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “This signal matters because it turns that hope into something more tangible, and that is enough to reinforce the relief trade.”

In Iran developments, a US-sanctioned tanker linked to China is sailing out of the Strait of Hormuz in a litmus test of the US naval blockade. Chinese President Xi Jinping described the international order as “crumbling into disarray” and vowed to play a constructive role in the Middle East. Marco Rubio is hosting talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington today.

Traders are also focused on first-quarter earnings at a time when the war in the Middle East is weighing on the outlook for the economy. JPMorgan Chase & Co. extended an underwhelming start to the earnings season for lenders, slipping 0.6% in premarket trading despite a record quarterly trading revenue haul. Wells Fargo & Co. dropped 2.7%.

“There is good value in the US equity market now. It has de-rated quite a lot and underlying profits are going to remain strong,” Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “If we continue to see moderation in oil prices and some of the concern about interest rate rises begin to fade, then we’ve got a reasonable degree of upside.”

In strategy, Citigroup’s Beata Manthey upgraded US equities to overweight from neutral on a “quality/defensive tilt” in their global allocation, while downgrading emerging markets stocks to neutral. Strategists at BlackRock had returned to to an overweight view on US stocks on Monday.

Meanwhile, HSBC Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Georges Elhedery said the war and broader “uncertainties” are beginning to dent client confidence. “We’re saddened and concerned with what’s happening in the Middle East, and we’re concerned not just with what’s happening, but also with how long this will take,” Elhedery told Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. “Unfortunately, some of these uncertainties have initially started to weigh on general confidence.”

Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey showed that investors are most bearish since June on expectations of higher inflation and lower economic growth. The strategists view this as a “contrarian positive for risk assets” as long as ceasefire sends oil price below $84 per barrel. 

The latest in private credit includes a BlackRock fund in Asia suffering its first default by a borrower after Metcold Holdings failed to repay a loan. BlackRock 1Q results are due pre-open, see BI preview here. Meanwhile, a Blue Owl Capital private credit fund raised $400 million from bond investors, marking the first deal of its kind in over a month.

Investors will also receive the next installment of March US inflation data with Tuesday’s release of the producer price index. Similar to the consumer price report, the measure of wholesale inflation will reflect the surge in energy prices during the first month of the Iran war. Economists project the PPI rose 1.1% from a month earlier, which would be the largest increase in four years. The core PPI, which excludes energy and food, is forecast to rise 0.4% for a second month, extending a stretch of heightened wholesale inflation pressures that dates back to late 2025.

“Soaring energy prices are pushing CPI and PPI higher, but it is still too early to detect any meaningful pass-through to core inflation,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “Besides, the effect of tariffs is beginning to fade. The outlook for monetary policy is now the main driver of bond markets.

A Fed roundtable, PPI data, and an IMF-World Bank gathering will make for a busy day of headlines.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 rises 0.6%, and the Estoxx 50 is up almost 1% tracking gains in Asia overnight as optimism grows that that Washington and Tehran will eventually make their way back to the negotiating table; Automobile and technology shares led gains, while food beverage and utilities stocks lagged. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

Sika shares advance as much as 9.5% after the Swiss specialty chemicals firm reported a solid first-quarter print despite a challenging backdrop from volatility in the Middle East and adverse weather in the Americas
Givaudan shares rise as much as 6.1% to their highest in a month after the company reported sales for the first quarter that showed stronger growth in fragrances than analysts were expecting
BE Semiconductor shares rise as much as 5.9% and hit a record after Bank of America set a Street-high target price
Eurofins shares rise as much as 5.3% after the laboratory-testing company agreed to sell its electrical and electronic testing business for an enterprise value of €575 million target and said the Dutch chip-equipment maker could give 2Q sales guidance well above consensus expectations
Tonies shares rise as much as 8.1%, the most since late December, after the audio storytelling system maker reported a significant improvement in profitability and outlined a positive outlook
Imperial Brands shares fall as much as 7.9% as the maker of Gauloises and Fortuna cigarettes says it expects to lose share in its five top markets and revenues from Next-Generation Products disappoint
LVMH shares fall 3.2% after the French luxury-goods company reported first-quarter organic revenue that missed consensus estimates, driven by the underperformance of its key fashion and leather goods division
Abivax shares drop as much as 2.4% in Paris, adding to Monday’s 2.9% decline. Spyre Therapeutics on Monday said a mid-stage trial of its investigational therapy for moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis met its main goal
Kitron falls as much as 7.6%, the most since November, after DNB Carnegie cut its recommendation on the Norwegian industrial electronics firm to hold from buy
Scatec falls as much as 7.4%, the most since January 2025, after holder Equinor sold 12.9 million shares in the company at a 7% discount vs Monday’s close. Morgan Stanley and Nordea facilitated the trade

Asian equities rose, led by artificial intelligence names, as sentiment improved amid signs the US and Iran may revive peace talks.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.9%, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts to the gauge. South Korea’s Kospi led advances across the region, while Taiwan’s benchmark climbed to a record high. India and Thailand were closed for a holiday. Investors are once again turning to growth sectors as Middle East tensions appear to ease. Taiwan’s stock benchmark erased all its losses since the war started at the end of February, as heavyweight TSMC jumped to an all-time high. China’s recent policy incentives for the island also helped brighten investors’ mood. Meanwhile, Singapore tightened its monetary policy settings in a widely expected move, becoming the first in Asia to respond to rising inflation risks stemming from a surge in energy prices. The Straits Times Index hovered near a record high.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.3%. The kiwi is leading gains among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.5% against the greenback.

In rates, treasuries are little changed after steady overnight price action, holding Monday’s advance. US yields remain within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels, the 10-year around 4.29%, trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 2.5bp and 3bp respectively.  European government bonds rise, as traders pare bets on tightening by the BOE and ECB this year. UK and German 10-year yields fall 4-5 bps each. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few items so far. Goldman Sachs sold a three-part offering Monday, with other issuers opting to step down. Dealers forecast around $40 billion of high-grade bond sales this week, led by US money-center banks. Focal points of US session include March PPI data and several Fed speakers. 

Elsewhere, the UK sold 10-year bonds at the highest yield since the global financial crisis, drawing in record numbers of buyers keen to lock in returns that may fall back if the war comes to an end. The auction followed a surge in yields on the back of heightened inflationary risks.

In commodities, brent crude futures fall 0.6% to around $98.80 a barrel. European natural gas futures are down 3.5%. Precious metals and Bitcoin gain. 

US economic data calendar includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am New York time) and March PPI (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (9:45am, 10:15am, 12:10pm), Barr (12:45pm) and Paulson, Collins, Barkin and Barr in a 1pm panel discussion

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +0.2%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%
DAX +1%, CAC 40 +0.7%
10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.28%
VIX -0.5 points at 18.63
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1193.72
euro +0.2% at $1.1787
WTI crude -2% at $97.08/barrel

Top Overnight News

Negotiating teams from the U.S. and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week to resume negotiations to end the war in the Gulf, Pakistani and Iranian officials said on Tuesday, days after the first peace talks ended without a breakthrough. RTRS
The US and Iran continue to exchange messages about a deal to end their war through back channels despite the failure of weekend talks to reach an agreement, said people briefed on the discussions. FT
Tankers pass Strait of Hormuz on first day of US blockade, data shows: RTRS
The U.S. proposed that Iran accept a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment during negotiations in Islamabad over the weekend, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge. The Iranians countered with a shorter “single digit” period, according to the sources. Axios
United CEO Scott Kirby floated a merger with rival American Airlines that would create the world’s largest carrier, people familiar said. Shares of both companies rose premarket. BBG
Oil demand is expected to contract 80K BPD this year (this is a sharp cut to the prior forecast) due to scarcity and high prices triggered by the Iran war. IEA
Investors are growing increasingly worried about US life insurers’ exposure to private credit, after many firms piled into the opaque asset class in an attempt to boost their investment returns. FT
China’s export growth declined to a six-month low in March as the Middle East conflict hit global demand outlook, while imports logged their strongest growth in more than four years. China’s exports in Mar were soft (+2.5% vs. the Street +8.6%) while imports surged 27.8% (vs. the Street +13.9%). CNBC
BOJ officials will probably consider raising their inflation forecast sharply at their policy meeting this month to reflect elevated oil prices, people familiar said. BBG
The UK is set to raise £15 billion from a new July 2036 gilt, in a deal that has attracted record bids of more than £148 billion. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher as risk sentiment was underpinned by hopes regarding US-Iran peace talks after President Trump suggested Iran called the US and wants to make a deal very badly, while a US official said that talks between the sides are continuing even now and there is progress, with some reports also noting that the second round of face-to-face talks could take place this Thursday, although there hasn’t been any confirmation. ASX 200 was lifted by outperformance in tech and miners, but with the upside capped following a deterioration in Australian Consumer Sentiment and Business Confidence surveys. Nikkei 225 rallied to just shy of the 58,000 level with tech-related stocks dominating the list of best performers, including SoftBank, Advantest, NEC Corp and Renesas, all in the top five biggest gainers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained, but with the advances limited as participants also digested mixed Chinese trade data, in which exports disappointed and imports surged, while China Customs Vice Minister said the international situation is currently turbulent, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying and global oil prices fluctuate sharply.

Top Asian News

South Korean Pension Fund allows more FX hedging to bolster KRW, Bloomberg reported.
China will refine its drug pricing system with 14 measures, Xinhua reported.
China Customs Vice Minister said China foreign trade situation had a good start.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said to discuss financial markets and energy conditions with counterparts at meetings and ready to roll out measures to support Asian nations. Will maintain close dialogue with JGB market participants amid rising yields. Specific monetary policy operations are for the BoJ to determine.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) are rebounding from Monday’s losses as reports of a second round of US-Iran talks taking place as soon as Thursday brighten the risk tone. Outperformance is seen in the DAX, with gains of over 1%, while the FTSE 100 lags behind its peers. Imperial Brands (-8%) trades more softly after it delivered a trading update in which it kept its FY guidance unchanged as pricing in its tobacco business offset continued volume declines. European sectors are mainly in the green, with Utilities and Food, Beverage & Tobacco the only sectors with modest losses. Autos tops the sector pile, closely followed by Technology and Basic Resources.

Top European News

German Wholesale Prices YoY (Mar) Y/Y 4.1% (Prev. 1.2%).
German Wholesale Prices MoM (Mar) M/M 2.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%).
Spanish Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.3%).
Spanish Inflation Rate MoM Final (Mar) M/M 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.4%).
Spanish Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%).

Geopolitics

Next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to the Iranian embassy official in Pakistan. Further commentary by the Pakistan Foreign Ministry stating it offered to host a second round of US-Iran negotiations, no date or time has been set yet.
Pakistani Journalist Mallick said “While Islamabad has offered to host the next round of in person talks between US and Iran, which could be held at a working level, to my understanding, date and venue for the next round has not been finalised as yet”.
US and Iran discussing another round of face-to-face talks to secure longer-term ceasefire after Islamabad negotiations ended without a deal, while officials aim to meet again before two-week ceasefire expires next week, according to Clash report. AP also reported that US and Iran could be headed toward a second round of talks, while talks could happen on Thursday.
US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks and he wouldn’t say things went wrong, adds Iranians moved in our direction in talks but not far enough. Ball is in Iran’s court. We made it clear what US red lines are in Iran talks.
US and Iran reportedly leave door open to dialogue after tense Islamabad talks, while a source stated that the parties came “very close” to an agreement and were “80% there”, before running into decisions that could not be settled on the spot.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said to French President Macron in a phone call on Monday that Iran will negotiate only under international law, while he claimed that unreasonable US demands prevented an agreement in weekend talks between US and Iran. He further told Macron that a lack of US good will and maximalist positions prevented finalising an agreement in Islamabad, IRNA reports; further states that diplomacy is the preferred path to resolving disputes.
Iranian Spokesman for the National Security Committee said the end of the truce should not lead to its extension, Al Mayadeen reported.
US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush is sailing off the coast of Africa and is heading to the Middle East to join Operation Epic Fury, according to two US officials cited by WSJ.
Saudi Arabia is pressing the US to drop its Hormuz blockade, with Gulf energy exporters worrying that Iran could escalate and close the Bab al-Mandeb, according to WSJ.
Alarms have sounded in the Galilee Panhandle due to concerns over potential UAV penetration.
Lebanese source said “The official mandate of Lebanon’s ambassador in Washington is limited to pursuing a ceasefire with Israel”, via Al Jazeera.
Switzerland is reportedly ready to help diplomatic initiatives between the US and Iran.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov tells Iranian counterpart Araghchi that it is important to ensure that no new fighting breaks out, and Moscow is on high alert to help in the settlement, while the latter warned warns of dangerous consequences of US actions.
US Secretary of State Rubio is to host Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors for talks on Tuesday, while the talks aim for ceasefire, Hezbollah disarmament and peace deal, according to Axios.
Meeting between the Israeli ambassador and the Lebanese ambassador Lebanon will be held on Tuesday at 18:00EDT/23:00BST, according to Al Jazeera citing Israeli Channel 15 citing sources.
Chinese President Xi makes four proposals on maintaining peace in the Middle East, according to Chinese press.
UK Deputy PM Lammy meets with US VP Vance in Washington and urges Iran ceasefire to hold, while he stresses free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Ukraine

Russian drones attacked Ukraine’s Izmail port and damaged a Panama-flagged vessel, according to Ukraine’s Deputy PM cited by Reuters.

Others

North Korea test fires a cruise missile and anti-warship missiles from a naval destroyer, according to KCNA.

FX

FX began the morning with a slight positive bias which was exacerbated by reports that US and Iran will return to negotiations later in the week. This report sparked a risk-on move, with crude falling USD 1.7/bbl, DXY marking fresh session lows, and high-beta currencies benefiting. It is worth noting that the outlet that ran this headline has since tweaked the headline to “could” resume talks, when it previously said “to” resume talks. With regards to date and time, that is not yet confirmed, though Pakistani Journalist Mallick writes “While Islamabad has offered to host the next round of in person talks between US and Iran, which could be held at a working level, to my understanding, date and venue for the next round has not been finalised as yet”.
The greenback looks to a busy day with US PPI and a packed calendar for Fed speak. Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, Dovish; no text expected) will speak to Yahoo Finance, He is also set to take part in a panel discussion and give remarks to media separately today. Barkin (2027 Voter, Neutral; no text), Barr (Voter, Neutral; text expected), Paulson (2026 Voter, Dovish; no text) and Collins (2028 Voter, Neutral; no text expected) are to speak on rural economic development.
DXY continues to trade below all significant DMAs after falling below 100- and 200-DMAs in Monday’s session. In terms of levels below, 97.87 marks the beginning of the war open, while today’s session low was marked at 98.11.
NZD stays the best performer in the G10FX space as markets price in further bps of hikes from the RBNZ. Overnight, ANZ revised its rate outlook for the RBNZ, now forecasting hikes in July, September and October. This follows moves from other domestic banks, ASB expecting the OCR to rise in September and December to a terminal of 3.25% next year (Terminal consensus), mid next year. ANZ Chief Economist Zollner said it is fair to interpret the recent media appearances from Governor Breman as deliberate. As a reminder, Breman conveyed hawkish marks a few times last week. Elsewhere in the ANZ note, Zollner said we don’t have a strong view on July versus September. But we do have a pretty strong view that hikes will come before our previous call of December.
JPY continues to be bound within 158-160 parameters. On Monday, remarks from BoJ Governor Ueda saw markets trim expectations of a hike in April’s meeting, with the Japanese curve implying 4bp of hikes (prev. c. 15bp). As such, the haven remains in lockstep with a slightly weaker USD (DXY -0.2%). There was a Bloomberg source that just hit the wires, which suggested BoJ was considering a sharp increase to its price forecast this month, while weighing a possible growth outlook cut due to high oil prices. This report pushed USD/JPY lower by around 10 pips to mark a session low of 158.85.

Fixed Income

Global fixed benchmarks were firmer overnight and continued to move a little higher as the European session progressed. Initial optimism was facilitated by reports that the US is reportedly eyeing a potential second round of in-person talks with Iran as the blockade takes hold, according to CNN. AP reported that the US and Iran could be headed toward a second round of talks, which could happen on Thursday. The complex then took another leg higher after Reuters reported that US and Iranian negotiation teams are to return to Islamabad for peace talks later this week. Markets will now await any official confirmation on if/when talks begin.
USTs are higher by 4 ticks, and currently trade within a 111-07+ to 111-14+ range. Today’s action is encapsulated by the above, but later on, the domestic docket is packed with Fed speak and US data. In brief, weekly ADP employment stats (prev. +26k average per week over the four-week window), US PPI (expected to rise 1.2% M/M vs prev. 0.7%) and NFIB Business Optimism Index are all expected. On Fed speak, Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 Voter, Dovish; no text expected), Barr (Voter, Neutral; text expected), Paulson (2026 Voter, Dovish; no text expected), Collins (2028 Voter, Neutral) and Barkin (2027 Voter, Neutral) are all to provide comments later.
Bunds and Gilts also follow the above, extending gains of around 40 ticks and 45 ticks, respectively. For the UK, BRC Retail Sales rose 3.1% (exp. 0.9% prev. 0.7%). The firm pointed towards warmer weather/Easter holidays boosting momentum, but highlighted risks surrounding the Middle East war, which is “is weighing heavily on both retailer and consumer confidence”. On the monetary policy front, BoE’s Mann highlighted that wage expectations could rise amidst the energy price shock.
For Germany specifically, a large jump in Wholesale Prices in March weighed on Bunds at a time, though ultimately proved fleeting. Much of the jump in prices was associated with rises in “energy products and raw materials”, amid the Iranian conflict.
Germany sells EUR 3.953bln vs exp. EUR 5.0bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.04x (prev. 1.1x), average yield 2.74% (prev. 2.72%), retention 20.9% (prev. 29.04%).
The Netherlands sells EUR 2.81bln vs exp. EUR 2-3.0bln 2.50% 2031 DSL: avg. yield 2.795% (prev. 2.526%).
Japan sold JPY 525bln 20-year JGBs; b/c 4.82x (prev. 3.25), average yield 3.327% (prev. 3.141%).
Brazil to sell EUR-denominated 4yr, 7yr and 10yr debt via syndication.
China’s Finance Ministry to reportedly meet with underwrites on Thursday to discuss ultra-long special Treasury Bond issuance, according to Reuters sources.
France opens book to sell EUR-denominated June 2037 Green Oat via syndicate; guidance seen at +13bps to May 2036 Oat.

Commodities

In geopolitics, President Trump said Iran had contacted the US and wanted a deal “very badly”, while a US official said talks were still continuing and progress was being made. The US and Iran are discussing a second round of talks, potentially in Islamabad on Thursday, though nuclear weapons and any Strait of Hormuz blockade remain key sticking points. More recently, an Iranian Embassy official in Pakistan said the next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week.
Elsewhere, the IEA completed the monthly trio of oil market reports. In its release, the IEA sees global oil supply exceeding demand by 410k BPD in 2026, (prev. 2.46mln BPD). IEA said crude, fuel, and NGL flows through Strait of Hormuz at 3.8mln BPD in early April (vs more than 20mln BPD pre-war), and added that resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz is the single most important variable for easing pressure on energy supplies and prices.
Brent Jun fell below USD 99/bbl (USD 96.50-99.45/bbl range), and WTI Jun resided in a USD 90.19-92.10/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF fell -2.5% in choppy trade. Natgas supply is seen as sufficient this summer despite Iran war-related disruption, with National Gas Transmission expecting domestic output and Norwegian flows to meet demand during the lower-consumption warmer months.
Spot gold rose to levels just shy of USD 4,800/oz after a two-day decline, as signs of diplomatic engagement slightly eased inflation concerns. The yellow metal resides towards the top end of a USD 4,743-4,797/oz range at the time of writing.
Copper hit a one-month high and other industrial metals also advanced on optimism around talks, though investors remain cautious over escalation risks. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,054.95- 13,201.93/t. In trade, China’s export growth slowed sharply to 2.5% Y/Y in March, missing forecasts after February’s near-40% gain, while imports surged amid energy-related disruption; analysts said Lunar New Year distortions and a high base likely exaggerated the slowdown. Elsewhere, the EU reached a prelim deal to cut tariff-free steel imports by 47% to 18.3mln metric tons per year and double out-of-quota duties to 50%, while also moving to phase out Russian steel imports, potentially by September 2028.
Russian oil product exports from Black Sea port of Tuapse revised up to 1.27mln tons for April (vs 794k tons in prev. plan), according to traders cited by Reuters.
IEA OMR: sees world oil demand falling by 80k in 2026 due to Iran (prev. forecast for a 640k BPD rise); sees world oil supply falling by 1.5mln BPD in 2026 (prev. forecast for 1.1mln BPD rise). SUPPLY/DEMAND IEA sees global oil supply exceeding demand by 410k BPD in 2026, (prev. 2.46mln BPD)MIDDLE EAST. IEA said crude, fuel, and NGL flows through Strait of Hormuz at 3.8mln BPD in early April (vs more than 20mln BPD pre-war). Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz is the single most important variable for easing pressure on energy supplies and prices. RUSSIA. Russia may struggle to produce oil above levels seen in early Q1 due to attacks on ports. Russia’s March crude production up to 8.96mln BPD from 8.67 mln BPD in February. Russia’s March crude exports up by 270k BPD from February to 4.6mln BPD.
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear power plant offsite power has been restored via one power line. This comes following reports by the IAEA saying Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant lost all off site power earlier in the morning.
US Energy Secretary Wright said US energy prices will likely rise in the next few weeks and remain until meaningful ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes. Venezuelan oil production has surpassed 1.2mln bpd, representing a 25% increase over three months. 150mln barrels of Venezuelan oil sold since January 3rd. There is an announcement coming soon about a large American company with a history in Venezuela ramping up production. By this summer is an aggressive timeframe now for oil and gas prices to start coming down.
Chevron (CVX) is signing a deal with Venezuela’s PDVSA aimed at increasing production by joint ventures, according to state TV, while it agrees to asset swap with PDVSA.
China is said to ease restrictions on certain BHP (BHP AT) iron ore cargoes.
Petrobras (PBR) reportedly in early stage talks to buy back Brazil’s Mataripe refinery from Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala.
SHFE said it will adjust price limits and margin requirements for certain gold and silver futures contracts from listing

Trade/Tariffs

Chinese President Xi said China and Spain should enhance cooperation and mutual trust, rejects the return to the law of the jungle, adds they are to jointly defend multilateralism and safeguard global development.
China Foreign Ministry said if the US imposes tariffs on China over Iran related issues, China will take “firm” countermeasures.
EU Chamber in China warns of expansion of China’s export controls and said EU companies continue to suffer from China’s export controls on rare earths, according to Handelsblatt.
EU is considering flexibilities for methane regulation due to US pressure, while EU may ease forest protection law amid US pressure and the Trump administration is pressuring the EU to weaken Green Deal laws, according to Handelsblatt.
EU reaches a provisional agreement on measures to limit steel imports.

Central Banks

The BoJ is said to be considering a sharp increase to its price forecast this month, while weighing a possible growth outlook cut due to high oil prices, Bloomberg reports.
BoE’s Mann says concerned that a price shock could show up in wage expectations; inflation expectations are very volatile if CPI is above 3-3.5%.
ECB’s Rehn said it is unclear the war effect on medium term inflation, rate decisions not locked in beforehand. Monetary policy should not be based on a single price, such as oil; it should be based on the economy as a whole. Impact of the war on inflation is not straightforward.
Fed’s Miran (voter, dovish dissenter) said expects inflation to be close to target in a year. No reason to think oil prices will remain elevated. Thus far, seems wise to look through this oil shock.
The ECB is urging EU governments to fast-track common deposit insurance to break the impasse in banking integration while warning against softening guardrails to boost competitiveness, the FT reported.
RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said not sure interest rates are at the right level to tame inflation, adds rates need to bring inflation to the 2-3% target and that Q2 headline inflation is around 5% due to fuel costs. Further, RBA’s Deputy Governor Hauser said inflation in Australia is too high and Australia’s supply capacity is constrained, adds energy price spikes has been a big income shock for Australia.
Monetary Authority of Singapore tightens policy as expected by slightly raising the rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band, while it made no change to the width and level the band is centred. In an appropriate position to respond effectively to any risk in medium-term price stability. Stands ready to curb excessive volatility in SGD NEER. MAS Core inflation will pick up and remain elevated over next few quarters. GDP growth will slow over the course of the year.

US Event Calendar

6:00 am: United States Mar NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 97.9, prior 98.8
8:30 am: United States Mar PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 1.1%, prior 0.7%
8:30 am: United States Mar PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%
8:30 am: United States Mar PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 4.6%, prior 3.4%
8:30 am: United States Mar PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.1%, prior 3.9%
9:45 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on AP Livestream
10:15 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on Yahoo Finance
12:10 pm: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Semafor World Economy 2026
12:45 pm: United States Fed’s Barr Speaks on Rural Economic Development
1:00 pm: United States Fed’s Paulson, Collins, Barkin and Barr in Fireside Chat

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The market optimism has continued this morning, with oil prices falling back amidst growing hopes that the US and Iran might still reach some kind of deal. Indeed, Brent crude is down another -1.61% overnight to $97.76/bbl, which is easing fears about a stagflationary shock, and significantly, the S&P 500 (+1.02%) closed above its pre-strike level on February 27. So as far as markets are concerned, the expectation remains that this is still likely to be a temporary conflict, with the oil futures curve heavily downward-sloping, and futures on the S&P 500 (+0.03%) pointing to modest gains once again. Moreover, that optimism has continued in Asia this morning, where the Nikkei (+2.45%), the KOSPI (+3.54%) and the CSI 300 (+0.84%) are all on track for a one-month high, alongside gains for the Shanghai Comp (+0.55%) and the Hang Seng (+0.36%).

In terms of the latest, the market mood steadily improved after Monday’s open, with the key catalyst being comments from Trump, who said “I can tell you that we’ve been called by the other side. They’d like to make a deal very badly”. So that helped push back against the more downbeat mood after the failure to reach a deal in Islamabad over the weekend. Later on, Vice President JD Vance also struck a positive tone, saying “we did make some progress in the negotiation”, and Bloomberg reported that the US and Iran are in discussions about another round of negotiations. According to the article, the goal would be to hold those talks before the two-week ceasefire expires in a week’s time. That echoed a similar a story from Axios earlier in the day, who reported that that mediators from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey would continue talks with the US and Iran to try and reach a deal.

Collectively, this raised hopes that the two sides would ultimately reach some sort of a deal, particularly with both sides sounding open to discussions. For instance, Iran’s president said in a statement that they were prepared to continue peace talks within the framework of international law and regulations. There was also some insight from a New York Times article, who reported that the US had proposed a 20-year suspension of nuclear activity, which would allow the Iranians to claim they hadn’t permanently given up the right to produce their own nuclear fuel. By contrast, it said the Iranians had only suggested a 5-year suspension. It did say that other issues were also looming over the talks, including the restoration of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but that that the nuclear issue remained the central dispute, echoing Trump’s previous comments that this was the main issue.

So given the potential for further talks, investors remained hopeful that a de-escalation would be achieved, even as yesterday saw the US blockade begin on the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Wall Street Journal, there were more than 15 US warships to support the operation. And Trump himself said that if Iran’s fast attack ships came close the blockade, then “they will be immediately ELIMINATED”. Over on the Iranian side, their armed forces said in a statement that “the security of Iran’s ports in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is threatened, no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe”. Meanwhile, there was also a Wall Street Journal report overnight that Saudi Arabia was pressing the US to drop its blockade, fearing that Iran might retaliate by disrupting other important shipping routes.

Amidst all that newsflow, the market focus was on the prospect of further talks, which helped to keep oil prices beneath $100/bbl. So Brent crude was only up +4.37% by the close yesterday at $99.36/bbl, paring back its stronger gains from earlier in the session. And this morning it’s down a further -1.61% to $97.76/bbl. We can also see that investors are still expecting a temporary conflict, as the energy futures curve is sharply downward sloping, with the 6-month Brent future at $83.55/bbl this morning, and the 12-month future at $78.57/bbl.

Away from oil, the prospect of further talks were received very positively across multiple asset classes. So that supported a broad recovery throughout the day, with the S&P 500 (+1.02%) paring back its opening losses to close above its pre-strike level on Feb 27. In fact, the index is now up +8.55% since its closing low on March 30, making this its second-best run over 9 sessions in the past 4 years, only surpassed by the bounceback after Liberation Day last year. Otherwise, both the NASDAQ (+1.23%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.52%) posted larger gains, reaching a one-month high. And cyclical stocks outperformed, with information technology (+1.72%) and financials (+1.73%) leading the gains for the S&P 500, though Goldman Sachs (-1.87%) fell back after their FICC revenue was beneath consensus expectations in Q1. Today we’ll hear from a few more US financials, including JPMorgan, Citigroup and BlackRock.

Meanwhile, US Treasuries saw a modest rally yesterday, with the 2yr yield (-2.3bps) falling to 3.78%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.4bps) was down to 4.29%. That came as investors grew more confident that the Fed might still cut rates this year, with the probability of a cut by December up to 36% by the close. Moreover, that got a further push from some weak data on US existing home sales. They fell to an annualised rate of 3.98m in March (vs. 4.05m expected), marking its lowest level in 9 months.

Earlier in the day, the market performance had been weaker in Europe, having closed before Trump’s comments about a deal. So sovereign bond yields ended the day higher, with those on 10yr bunds (+3.5bps), OATs (+4.3bps) and BTPs (+4.4bps) all rising. And equities also fell back, with the STOXX 600 (-0.16%) down from its one-month high on Friday, though it did recover from a -1% decline intra-day.

One notable exception to the pattern of European underperformance came from Hungarian assets, which surged in the aftermath of Sunday’s election result, in which the opposition TISZA party won a two-thirds majority that will enable them to amend the Constitution. In fact, the Hungarian forint was the strongest-performing global currency yesterday, surging by +3.69% against the US Dollar. Equities surged as well, with the country’s BUX Index (+4.95%) posting its best day since 2022, despite the losses in European indices more widely. And the country’s sovereign bonds also rose sharply, with the 10yr yield (-39.1bps) posting its biggest daily decline since 2023.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US PPI inflation for March. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Makhlouf and Lane, the Fed’s Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins and Barkin, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Mann and Greene. Earnings include JPMorgan, Johnson & Johnson, Citigroup and BlackRock. Finally, the IMF will release their World Economic Outlook.

Wary of Iranian escalation that shuts down Red Sea traffic, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is asking the Trump administration to back off from its newly-implemented blockade of Iranian-linked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday evening. On Sunday, a senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned that Iran has “large, untouched levers” to respond to such a blockade. 

Perhaps ominously, Bab el-Mandeb translates to “Gate of Tears” (map via Time)

Earlier on Monday — at 10am ET — the US blockade took effect, backed up by more than 15 Navy ships, including some equipped to dispatch helicopter-borne commandeering squads. The ships were expected to position themselves outside the Strait of Hormuz, for fear of Iranian attacks. Their mission: Prohibiting any maritime traffic from approaching or departing from Iranian ports, regardless of how the ships are flagged. Shortly before the blockade’s commencement, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre issued a notice advising that “maritime access restrictions are being enforced affecting Iranian ports and coastal areas, including locations along the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz.”

Describing Saudi unease, Arab officials who spoke to the Journal noted that Iran could answer the US blockade by shutting down the Bab al-Mandeb, a 20-mile-wide, 70-mile-long choke point that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. To accomplish that, Iran could tap the Houthis, the political and military organization that controls much of Yemen. “If Iran does want to shut down Bab al-Mandeb, the Houthis are the obvious partner to do it, and their response to the Gaza conflict demonstrates that they have the capacity to do it,” Adam Baron, an expert on Yemen at the New America policy institute, told the Journal. 

Footage of the Houthis targeting and sinking the ship Eternity C. pic.twitter.com/bp95mfiyV3

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 9, 2025

Saudi Arabia recently has been able to get its oil exports back up to their prewar level of around seven million barrels a day despite the blockage in the strategic strait by piping its crude across the desert to the Red Sea. Those supplies would be at risk if the Red Sea’s exit route were closed as well. — WSJ

After the Israeli onslaught on Gaza following the Oct 7 2022 Hamas invasion of Israel, the Houthis showcased their ability to disrupt traffic at the chokepoint, with a combination of anti-ship missiles, airborne and seagoing drones, and even commando boarding parties. A major US operation to suppress those Houthis attacks on Israel-linked shipping in 2025 proved costly, with America reportedly losing 2 F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters and several MQ-9 Reaper drones, in addition to consuming expensive ordnance. All told, it was reported to have cost more than $1 billion before an Oman-brokered ceasefire ended America’s “Operation Rough Rider.” 

Video released by the #Houthis seems to show the setting of explosive charges on the deck of the tanker #Sounion off the coast of Yemen in the #RedSea.

At 150k tons, this tanker is almost twice the size of Exxon Valdez and the environmental damage to the region will be massive. pic.twitter.com/EfUbg5o5j9

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) August 23, 2024

Saudi energy officials told the Journal that the Houthis had promised they wouldn’t attack Saudi Arabia or Saudi ships navigating through Bab al-Mandeb, but emphasized that such commitments could evaporate under pressure from Iran. There’s also the possibility of the Houthis taking a page from the Iranian playbook and charging tolls on ships going through the choke point.    

The US blockade follows Iran’s own closure of the Strait of Hormuz a few days after US and Israeli forces collaborated in a Feb 28 surprise attack. Over that time, Iran has selectively let some ships transit the strait, including those serving China and India, but some 13 million barrels per day have been cut off from the world. Oil prices have surged over $100 a barrel, and shortages have already started causing mayhem in east Asian countries that depend heavily on Gulf imports.   

The latest maritime drama in the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that’s normally transited by vessels supplying 20% of the world’s oil needs — comes after high-level US-Iranian talks in Pakistan failed to achieve an agreement that would bring the US-Israeli war on Iran to a conclusion. The United States is reportedly demanding that Iran suspend nuclear enrichment for 20 years, while Iran has offered to suspend it for some period of less than 10 years.

Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times,

In 2025, Iran’s crypto ecosystem swelled to more than $7.78 billion, according to Chainalysis, marking a notable acceleration from prior years amid economic collapse and geopolitical turmoil.

For ordinary Iranians—roughly one in six of the population—crypto served as a vital lifeline. Facing relentless rial depreciation (down nearly 90 percent since 2018), chronic inflation of 40 to 50 percent, and frequent power blackouts or internet shutdowns during protests, citizens turned to Bitcoin and stablecoins like U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins (USDT) on the Tron network to hedge savings, facilitate remittances, and move value when traditional banking failed. Spikes in Bitcoin withdrawals to personal wallets often coincided with domestic unrest and regional conflicts.

Yet this parallel financial system has also become a powerful tool for the state. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) steadily tightened its grip on Iran’s crypto flows. IRGC-linked addresses received more than $3 billion in 2025—up from over $2 billion in 2024—with their share rising to more than 50 percent of total Iranian crypto inflows by the end of 2025. These figures represent conservative lower bounds based only on identified and sanctioned wallets.

The regime and its proxies used these funds to facilitate illicit oil sales, procure dual-use goods for missile and drone programs, finance regional militias such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and sustain sanctions evasion operations. USDT on Tron (USDT-TRC20) emerged as the preferred rail for its speed, liquidity, and relative resilience. Iran’s Ministry of Defense even began openly offering to accept cryptocurrency for arms exports.

This dual-use nature of cryptocurrency echoes the history of Tor, the anonymizing network originally developed by U.S. intelligence agencies to protect spies and assets. Designed for secure communication, Tor now powers both legitimate privacy efforts and dissidents in repressive regimes, as well as the vast criminal ecosystems of the Dark Web. Just like Tor, the same technical features—such as decentralization, pseudonymity, borderless transfers, and resistance to single-point censorship—that help ordinary people escape tyranny also let regimes and bad actors bypass accountability.

The Procurement and Laundering Pipeline

Once oil proceeds or other regime revenues entered the crypto ecosystem, they moved through a sophisticated international pipeline designed to convert funds into usable military capabilities. Iranian oil—primarily purchased by Chinese “teapot” refineries—was shipped via shadow-fleet tankers and often settled through shadow-banking networks. Chinese “teapot” refineries are small, privately owned, independent refineries that process heavily discounted crude from sanctioned countries like Iran, thereby shielding major state-owned firms from sanctions risk.

Proceeds were then routed via front companies in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hong Kong, where Iranian facilitators converted them into stablecoins, especially USDT on the Tron network.

Key brokers, including Iranian nationals Alireza Derakhshan and Arash Estaki Alivand, both of whom were sanctioned by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control in September 2025, coordinated the purchase of more than $100 million in cryptocurrency tied directly to Iranian oil sales between 2023 and 2025. They operated networks of UAE- and Hong Kong-based front companies, including entities like Alpa Trading–FZCO, to layer transactions, obscure origins, and settle payments for dual-use goods.

These funds financed procurement of critical components for Iran’s drone and missile programs—electronics, semiconductors, batteries, and unmanned aerial vehicle parts—sourced mainly from suppliers in China and Hong Kong. Goods were frequently mislabeled and transshipped to evade export controls, ultimately reaching the IRGC-Qods Force and Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics.

For years, Dubai served as the central hub for these operations, leveraging its existing free zones, money changers (sarraf), and informal networks. However, in early 2026, UAE authorities arrested dozens of IRGC-linked money changers, shut down associated offices, and weighed broader asset freezes—delivering one of the most significant disruptions yet to Tehran’s sanctions-evasion architecture. Even so, the underlying networks demonstrated resilience, adapting to new routes as pressure mounted.

The Enablers: Chinese Money Laundering Networks

The final leg of the pipeline relies on a powerful new layer of professional criminal infrastructure: Chinese money-laundering networks (CMLNs), whose recent rapid development appears to be an unforeseen consequence of the imposition of capital controls in China, including a sweeping crypto ban and a strict $50,000 annual foreign exchange limit.

These sophisticated, profit-driven operations—frequently built around Telegram-based guarantee/escrow platforms, money mule networks, informal over-the-counter desks, and layered wallet structures—functioned like a full-service “Amazon for criminals.”

In 2025 alone, CMLNs processed an estimated $16.1 billion in illicit crypto funds, accounting for roughly 20 percent of all known global crypto money laundering activity. Operating through more than 1,799 active wallets, they moved the equivalent of about $44 million per day.

Broader Chinese-language escrow and underground banking networks handled even larger volumes, with TRM Labs estimating more than $100 billion to $103 billion in adjusted crypto flows in 2025. These services offered reliable “laundering-as-a-service,” converting tainted stablecoins (especially the above-mentioned USDT on Tron) into usable fiat currency, like the U.S. dollar, goods, or clean assets, while minimizing risk for clients.

CMLNs served a wide clientele, including scam operators, ransomware groups, and sanctioned state actors. They helped launder proceeds from North Korean hacks (including the record 2025 Bybit theft), supported Russian sanctions-evasion flows, and enabled Iranian/IRGC networks to off-ramp oil-related crypto and settle payments for dual-use goods. These networks provided the essential “last mile” that turned raw illicit crypto into operational funding for weapons programs and proxies. 

Despite enforcement actions—such as the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network’s 2025 designation of the Cambodia-based Huione Group as a primary money laundering concern—the networks demonstrated remarkable resilience, quickly migrating to new platforms and services.

While seemingly not under direct operational command and control by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), CMLNs have grown into a multi-billion-dollar industry with conspicuous longevity. Given the CCP’s tight grip on China’s financial system, internet, and capital flows, and its aggressive crackdowns when it perceives threats to financial stability or political control, such large-scale, cross-border activity would be extremely difficult to sustain without, at the very least, tacit tolerance from Beijing.

Enforcement and Outlook

The Trump administration’s strongly pro-crypto domestic policies—including the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—stand in contrast to its aggressive enforcement against adversarial use of digital assets. On-chain intelligence sharpened U.S. focus on IRGC procurement networks, Russian stablecoin flows, and North Korean thefts.

Under its “maximum pressure” campaign, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned entire crypto exchanges in January 2026, including the UK-registered Zedcex and Zedxion, for processing large volumes of IRGC-linked funds, including more than $94 billion in total transactions on Zedcex.

Crypto had evolved into an important battleground: a lifeline for civilians in sanctioned economies and a tool for rogue regimes and criminal financing. As evasion networks adapt and migrate, the long-term success of disruption efforts remains to be seen.

Shares of Lululemon Athletica fell as much as 4.5% in late-morning New York trading after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton launched an investigation into whether the company, known for its leggings, misled consumers about potential “forever chemicals” in its apparel.

Paxton’s probe of Lululemon’s athletic apparel centers around leggings that may contain PFAS, or “forever chemicals,” and whether the company misled consumers about the safety, quality, and health impacts of its products.

The attorney general’s office will also review the company’s restricted substances list, testing procedures, and supply chain practices to determine whether its products actually meet the stated safety standards.

Paxton stated, “I will not allow any corporation to sell harmful, toxic materials to consumers at a premium price under the guise of wellness and sustainability. If Lululemon has violated Texas law, it will be held accountable.”

Supply chain analysis platform Sayari provides the latest shipment data on Lululemon: 

Meanwhile:

Lululemon Founder Blasts Board Again Amid Stock Collapse

Another Pair Of Lululemon Leggings Fails The Squat Test

Paxton has been widening his investigations tied to the “Make America Healthy Again” movement, which is linked to HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. His recent actions include probing WK Kellogg over artificial food colorings in Froot Loops and pressuring food companies to remove synthetic dyes from cereal and other products. He has also targeted toothpaste makers over fluoride.

Authored by Mriogakshi Dixit via Interesting Engineering,

In the dizzying heights of a chemical storage facility, a new kind of worker is punching in. China has reportedly deployed its first “embodied” intelligent humanoid robot designed for high-risk industrial operations. 

Embodied AI robot can be seen working on the wall of a large chemical storage tank in testing.CCTV PLus

This isn’t just a fixed machine; it’s a 90-kg (198-pound) robot that can climb walls and work where humans can’t.

Interestingly, the multi-purpose system is intended to replace human workers in hazardous conditions, such as chemical storage tank construction.

According to reports, this machine uses a magnetic chassis to stick to walls, allowing its humanoid upper body to operate on any metal surface.

The robot could be used to execute core industrial tasks, including precision welding, rust remediation, and routine inspections.

15 degrees of freedom

Compared with earlier wall-climbing robots that were limited to a single repetitive function, this new system is said to be a multitasker. 

It moves beyond basic cleaning or inspection by leveraging advanced AI to adapt to its environment and handle a wide range of complex industrial tasks.

With 15 degrees of freedom and dual arms, the robot mimics human flexibility to safely multitask on scaffolds, performing precision tasks such as simultaneous welding and grinding. 

According to CGTN, this physical agility is driven by a massive AI brain trained on 100,000 hours of data, enabling it to navigate complex environments with ease.

This “embodied intelligence” allows the robotic machine to perceive its surroundings, adapt to complex real-world scenarios, and improve its performance through ongoing experience.

Moreover, it uses a tethered cable system to eliminate the power limitations that usually hold mobile units back. 

This constant supply of energy allows for nonstop, 24/7 operation, ensuring the machine stays productive without the downtime required for recharging.

Built for the danger zone

Tested at a large chemical storage site, the 90-kilogram robot uses a wheeled, magnetic chassis to move steadily across vertical metal surfaces. 

Its powerful electromagnetic adhesion enables it to perform complex operations while supporting additional weight, ensuring it remains mobile and secure even on steep walls.

In the future, entire fleets of these robots could maintain shipyards and refineries. It could lead to a new era where heavy infrastructure can essentially take care of itself.

Prior to this, China reached another milestone by integrating an embodied intelligent robot into SAIC Motor’s electric vehicle division’s mass production line.

The humanoid robot, known as “Nengzai No. 1,” has officially joined the battery assembly line for the Buick Electra E7 at SAIC Motor.

This move is a major step for the Shanghai-based carmaker as it starts combining smart, human-like robots with its regular factory machines.

China’s dominance in the humanoid sector is backed by massive state support, with over 140 companies focused specifically on humanoids and $26 billion in dedicated investment.

Even Elon Musk has acknowledged China’s lead in this “priority industry,” which benefits from extensive supply chains and government subsidies.

By 2050, the global market for these robots could reach $7.5 trillion, and China is positioning itself to lead that charge by deploying humanoids in factories and private homes.