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Federal Reserve may keep rates unchanged for months as economy shows signs of health

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials are expected to keep their short-term interest rate unchanged Wednesday after three cuts last year, ignoring huge pressure for lower borrowing costs from the White House in favor of waiting to see how the economy evolves.

The central bank’s rate reductions last year were intended to shore up the economy and prevent a sharper deterioration in the job market, after hiring slowed to a near-crawl in the wake of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs last April. Yet there are signs that unemployment has stabilized and the economy could be picking up. At the same time, inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. All those trends argue for keeping rates where they are.

A key issue that Chair Jerome Powell will likely address at his news conference Wednesday is how long the Fed will remain on hold. The rate-setting committee remains split between those officials opposed to further cuts until inflation comes down, and those who want to lower rates to further support hiring.

In December, just 12 of the 19 participants in the committee’s meetings supported at least one more rate cut this year. Most economists forecast the Fed will cut twice this year, most likely at the June meeting or later.

Fed officials meet this week in the shadow of unprecedented pressure from the Trump White House. Powell said Jan. 11 that the Fed had received subpoenas from the Justice Department as part of a criminal investigation into his congressional testimony about a $2.5 billion building renovation. Powell in an unusually blunt video statement said the subpoenas were a pretext to punish the Fed for not cutting rates more quickly.

And last week, the Supreme Court took up Trump’s attempt from last year to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denies. No president has fired a governor in the Fed’s 112-year history. The justices at an oral argument appeared to be leaning toward allowing her to stay in her job until the case is resolved.

At the same time, Trump has suggested he is close to naming a new Fed Chair, to replace Powell once his term ends in May. The announcement could come as soon as this week, though it has been delayed before.

The president’s efforts to pressure the Fed may have backfired, economists say, as Republicans in the Senate voiced support for Powell and threatened to block Trump’s replacement chair.

“The last couple of weeks have been pretty positive for Fed independence,” said Patricia Zobel, a former official at the New York Fed and now head of macroeconomic research at Guggenheim Invesments.

Even so, all the turmoil may have led Powell to hunker down as he nears the end of his term as chair. Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed economist and now chief economist at BNY Investments, noted that Powell has given just one speech touching on the economy since September.

He could be letting other Fed officials take on the job of explaining why the central bank may hold off on rate cuts in the coming months, Reinhart said. It also underscores that the chair does not make decisions on rates alone, he added,

“The contribution of Chair Powell to news about our understanding of the next Fed move has been as small as it’s ever been, over his tenure,” Reinhart said.

Only 12 of the 19 members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee have a vote, including all seven members of the board of governors, the president of the New York Fed, and a rotating group of four presidents from the regional Fed banks.

This year, Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed; Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed; Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed; and Anna Paulson, president of the Philadelphia Fed, will vote on rate decisions. All have recently expressed some skepticism of the need for further cuts anytime soon.

In a speech earlier this month, Paulson said an improving economy should allow more rate cuts later in the year.

“I see inflation moderating, the labor market stabilizing and growth coming in around 2% this year,” she said. “If all of that happens, then some modest further adjustments” to the Fed’s key rate “would likely be appropriate later in the year.”

Larger-than-usual tax refunds over the next few months should help fuel more consumer spending, economists expect. And faster growth could eventually boost hiring, which has been noticeably weak even as the economy is expanding.

With businesses barely adding jobs, consumers remain gloomy about the economy. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence dropped to an 11-year low in January, the business research group said Tuesday.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/01/28/federal-reserve-rate/ 

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War Drums In Gulf: US Armada Arrives As Saudi Arabia, UAE Deny Airspace Access

War Drums In Gulf: US Armada Arrives As Saudi Arabia, UAE Deny Airspace Access

Things between Tehran and Washington are moving fast according to an eerily familiar pattern hearkening back to the lead-up to the 12-day June war, when there was some wrangling over negotiations – and talk of good faith efforts at dialogue – just before the US greenlighted a surprise Israeli attack which also saw US entry into the conflict by the close of it (whereupon nuclear facilities were hit by American bombers).

“Our stance is clear,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Wednesday as the US has expressed the desire to strike a deal. “Negotiations don’t go along with threats, and talks can only take place when there are no longer menaces and excessive demands.”

IRAN SAYS WILL RESPOND TO US ‘LIKE NEVER BEFORE’ IF PUSHED
IRAN SAYS READY FOR TALKS WITH US BASED ON MUTUAL RESPECT
OIL PARES GAINS AS IRAN SAYS ITS READY FOR TALKS WITH US

Araqchi confirmed his country has had no recent communication with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and has not sought talks with Washington. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that another US “armada” was moving “beautifully” toward Iran, but he hoped Tehran would ultimately strike a deal and avoid conflict.

via The Australian 

The Iranian FM noted, however, that unnamed intermediaries were “holding consultations” and remained in touch with Iranian officials.

Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday that Tehran supports any process “within the framework of international law” that helps avert war. The Saudis have joined the UAE in declaring that the US cannot use its airspace for aggression against Iran

This shouldn’t pose too big a challenge for the Pentagon, however, which has a build-up of assets at its Qatar base and with a carrier group near Iran in regional waters.

But The Wall Street Journal disagrees, saying this could be a significant setback if the White House wishes to pursue war plans:

The declarations from the two Gulf states represent a foreign policy setback for the Trump administration as it seeks to ratchet up pressure on Tehran, which has defied Washington’s demand that it halt uranium enrichment and end the suppression of protesters.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader, outlined his country’s position while talking by phone with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. 

A Saudi readout of the Tuesday call said the crown prince had stressed that the kingdom “will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for any military actions against Iran.”

Previously, during Monday remarks, President Trump said “They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk.” He added ominously, “We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela.”

US forces stationed across the Middle East are also meanwhile taking part in large-scale war games aimed at showcasing combat readiness, as Washington ramps up its military footprint, and as Trump is presented with an array of ‘options’. All of this supposedly steps from Washington ‘concern’ for large-scale protests from earlier this month, where thousands died – but which also included the deaths of police and security services.

In a statement which kicked off the week, US Central Command said: “Ninth Air Force will be conducting a multi-day readiness exercise to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower across the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.”

President Trump issued the following “time is running” out message Wednesday morning:

Trump tells the Iranian regime that “time is running out”, saying that if there is no deal, the “next attack will be far worse” than Operation Midnight Hammer pic.twitter.com/FnziIVAxRt

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) January 28, 2026

The command added that “this exercise is designed to enhance asset and personnel dispersal capability, strengthen regional partnerships and prepare for flexible response execution throughout CENTCOM.”

The sweeping drills are unfolding against the backdrop of sharply rising tensions with Tehran in which an oil blockade and potential strikes on senior officials in the Islamic Republic are being considered. But in terms of blockades, two can play at that game, as the Strait of Hormuz remains among the most vital waterways for the global market, and the IRGC has threatened that its forces can shut it to international transit.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 09:25

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/war-drums-gulf-us-armada-patrols-saudi-arabia-uae-deny-airspace-access 

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Amazon cuts about 16,000 corporate jobs in the latest round of layoffs

Amazon is slashing about 16,000 corporate jobs in the second round of mass layoffs for the ecommerce company in three months.

The tech giant has said it plans to use generative artificial intelligence to replace corporate workers. It has also been reducing a workforce that swelled during the pandemic.

Beth Galetti, a senior vice president at Amazon, said in a blog post Wednesday that the company has been “reducing layers, increasing ownership, and removing bureaucracy.”

The company did not say what business units would be impacted, or where the job cuts would occur.

The latest reductions follow a round of job cuts in October, when Amazon said it was laying off 14,000 workers. While some Amazon units completed those “organizational changes” in October, others did not finish until now, Galetti said.

She said U.S.-based staff would be given 90 days to look for a new role internally. Those who are unsuccessful or don’t want a new job will be offered severance pay, outplacement services and health insurance benefits, she said.

“While we’re making these changes, we’ll also continue hiring and investing in strategic areas and functions that are critical to our future,” Galetti said.

CEO Andy Jassy, who has aggressively cut costs since succeeding founder Jeff Bezos in 2021, said in June that he anticipated generative AI would reduce Amazon’s corporate workforce in the next few years.

The layoffs announced Wednesday are Amazon’s biggest since 2023, when the company cut 27,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, Amazon and other Big Tech and retail companies have cut thousands of jobs to bring spending back in line following the COVID-19 pandemic. Amazon’s workforce doubled as millions stayed home and boosted online spending.

The job cuts have not arrived with a company on shaky financial ground.

In its most recent quarter, Amazon’s profits jumped nearly 40% to about $21 billion and revenue soared to more than $180 billion.

Late last year after layoffs, Jassy said job cuts weren’t driven by company finances or AI.

“It’s culture,” he said in October. “And if you grow as fast as we did for several years, the size of businesses, the number of people, the number of locations, the types of businesses you’re in, you end up with a lot more people than what you had before, and you end up with a lot more layers.”

Hiring has stagnated in the U.S. and in December, the country added a meager 50,000 jobs, nearly unchanged from a downwardly revised figure of 56,000 in November.

Labor data points to a reluctance by businesses to add workers even as economic growth has picked up. Many companies hired aggressively after the pandemic and no longer need to fill more jobs. Others have held back due to widespread uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies, elevated inflation, and the spread of artificial intelligence, which could alter or even replace some jobs.

While economists have described the labor situation in the U.S as a “no hire-no fire” environment, some companies have said they are cutting back on jobs, even this week.

On Tuesday, UPS said it planned to cut up to 30,000 operational jobs through attrition and buyouts this year as the package delivery company reduces the number of shipments from what was its largest customer, Amazon.

That followed 34,000 job cuts in October at UPS and the closing of daily operations at 93 leased and owned buildings during the first nine months of last year.

Also on Tuesday, Pinterest said it plans to lay off under 15% of its workforce, as part of broader restructuring that arrives as the image-sharing platform pivots more of its money to artificial intelligence.

Shares of Amazon Inc., based in Seattle, rose slightly before the opening bell Wednesday.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/01/28/amazon-layoffs/ 

Posted in News

Amid federal pressures, CTU President Stacy Davis Gates declares union is ‘really strong’

The state of the union — that is, the Chicago Teachers Union — is “really strong,” “really powerful” and “very well,” according to CTU President Stacy Davis Gates.

That confidence comes despite a bitter budget fight at Chicago Public Schools, federal education cuts and two recent government probes into the union’s financial records.

Davis Gates gave the sweeping address Tuesday night to a sea of supporters at the union’s headquarters on the Near West Side, an event billed as the “CTU State of the Union.” Leaders of the nation’s third-largest teachers union say it is charging into the new year with full force.

“The state of the union is so powerful that they want to talk about how powerful we are in the halls of Congress,” Davis Gates told attendees.

Davis Gates has helmed CTU since July 2022, representing nearly 30,000 teachers, paraprofessionals and school personnel. She was reelected last May, securing another three-year term on the heels of the union’s recently ratified, $1.5 billion contract.

Davis Gates has emerged as a fierce advocate for public education in Illinois, though her unwavering approach has at times put her at odds with local and state officials. In October, she was elected president of the Illinois Federation of Teachers, the parent organization of CTU. IFT oversees more than 200 local union chapters across the state.

Chicago Teachers Union President Stacy Davis Gates addresses members at CTU headquarters on Jan. 27, 2026, in Chicago. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)

Addressing the friendly audience, Davis Gates drew on CPS’ history to urge attendees to reimagine the city. She repeatedly pointed to the district’s controversial 2013 mass school closures, which disproportionately impacted Black students.

“Imagine a school district where the conversation isn’t about empty seats and how many (schools) we close, but about, ‘How do we provide every kid in every school an extracurricular experience?’ Kids need to be on a sports team. Kids need to play an instrument. Kids need to sing and dance and act,” she said.

Under Davis Gates’ leadership, CTU propelled Mayor Brandon Johnson, a former union organizer and teacher, into office. At Tuesday’s event, Johnson drew on his educator roots and called teaching “one of the most important jobs that anyone can have.”

He, too, echoed calls to increase school funding.

“People ask you, ‘So what’s the deal with Mayor Brandon Johnson?’” he said. “Just let them know that we are centering our work around the needs of young people and working people.”

But the event comes at a turning point for CPS and CTU. As the district transitions to an elected school board — a change lauded by progressives as a step towards equity — it is also staring down an estimated $520 million budget deficit for next fiscal year.

In August, CPS closed a $734 million shortfall while avoiding direct cuts to classrooms. Yet the bitter budget fight between district officials, Johnson and the CTU led to the mass resignation of the school board and the firing without cause of former CPS CEO Pedro Martinez in 2024.

Mayor Brandon Johnson speaks before an address by Chicago Teachers Union President Stacy Davis Gates at CTU headquarters on Jan. 27, 2026, in Chicago. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)

Even in her new role at IFT, Davis Gates will face hurdles in securing more funding from state lawmakers. The General Assembly has shown reluctance to increase school funding beyond the levels already mandated by state law — making her push an uphill battle.

Polling has also shown that CTU’s popularity across the city has declined. During last year’s school board elections, voters rejected several union-backed candidates.

But Davis Gates shows no sign of backing down. “You got to make a choice in remembering your power, because all of your enemies do,” she said. “They’re talking about us because we’re powerful.”

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has rattled the country’s education landscape, moving to dismantle the U.S. Education Department while targeting diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives across the country.

Trump officials abruptly pulled an $8 million federal grant from CPS after the district refused to end its Black Student Success Plan — designed to improve the outcomes and experiences of Black students, who were trailing their white peers — along with its policies supporting transgender students.

Federal pressures

CTU has faced its own set of federal pressures.

In November, the Republican-led House Committee on Education and the Workforce launched an investigation into the union’s financial audits, alleging that CTU has not provided required records to its members.

While CTU missed its initial Dec. 22 deadline, a Committee spokesperson confirmed that the union submitted the requested documents on Jan. 16, the extended deadline it was given.

Five of Illinois’ Democratic members of the U.S. House wrote a letter to the committee a day before the deadline, questioning whether or not the investigation was politically motivated.

“We are concerned that the inquiry itself is overtly partisan in nature,” they wrote.

Chicago Teachers Union President Stacy Davis Gates finishes addressing members at CTU headquarters on Jan. 27, 2026, in Chicago. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)

The Committee has yet to confirm if the documents it received fully comply with the request. But nearly two months later, CTU said it is being audited again — this time by the U.S. Department of Labor.

CTU spokesperson Kurt Hilgendorf said the union received a letter from the department on Jan. 15 requesting to inspect its records as part of its Compliance Audit Program, commonly known as CAP.

Through CAP, officials can review a broad set of records, including bank statements, audit reports and meeting minutes. These audits are routinely conducted by the Department of Labor to ensure that labor unions are complying with federal labor laws.

While CTU acknowledged the audits are common, union leaders said the timing of the inquiry is questionable, given that the letter was sent a day before they turned in financial audits and other records to the Republican-led Congressional committee.

“We think that the timing is suspicious,” Hilgendorf said. “But we were anticipating it could happen and we’re prepared.”

A Department of Labor spokesperson said the agency “cannot comment on purported investigative activity.”

CTU’s financial audits have been a topic of discussion for years, with some members stating that they do not have access to the documents.

But CTU has maintained that financial records are available to all union members in various ways, including by appointment and through the union’s official membership platform. Hilgendorf said that since Davis Gates has taken over, some of her top priorities have been financial stability and transparency.

At the moment, the Department of Labor has not shared further information regarding the timeline or process of its audit, according to Hilgendorf.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/01/28/chicago-teachers-union-stacy-davis-gates/ 

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Paraguay extradita a Perú al supuesto líder del crimen organizado en Lima

Associated Press

ASUNCIÓN (AP) — Paraguay extraditó el miércoles a Perú al presunto líder de una banda criminal identificado como Erick Moreno, alias “El Monstruo”, uno de los más buscados en el país andino donde está acusado de robo, extorsión, secuestro y organización criminal.

Las autoridades paraguayas entregaron a Moreno a sus pares peruanas en la Primera Brigada de la Fuerza Aérea Paraguaya en la ciudad de Luque, desde donde despegó en la mañana una aeronave de la Policía Nacional de Perú.

De acuerdo con el jefe del departamento de Interpol en Paraguay, Julio Maldonado, el proceso se dio “con normalidad” desde el traslado de Moreno de la cárcel en que se encontraba recluido, en la localidad de Emboscada, hasta su entrega a una comitiva de 23 funcionarios peruanos que lo esperaban en la base aérea.

La policía paraguaya arrestó a Moreno a fines de septiembre en un operativo conjunto entre los dos países en la ciudad paraguaya de San Lorenzo, 16 kilómetros al sur de Asunción.

En Perú está acusado de diversos delitos y, en 2023, fue condenado en ausencia por un tribunal de Lima a 32 años de prisión por secuestro, homicidio y sicariato.

Las autoridades peruanas habían ofrecido más de 142.000 dólares por la captura de Moreno, quien también era buscado y requerido por otros países como Brasil.

Las extorsiones y los asesinatos se han incrementado en Perú en los últimos años. De acuerdo con datos de la Cámara Internacional de la Industria del Transporte, el 80% de las empresas de transporte público en Lima pagan a extorsionadores para poder trabajar y evitar ser objeto de crímenes.

Según datos oficiales, las denuncias por extorsión entre enero y agosto sumaron 18.385, un incremento de 29,3% respecto del mismo periodo de 2024. Entre enero y agosto hubo 1.511 asesinatos, 13% más que en el mismo lapso del año anterior.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/01/28/paraguay-extradita-a-per-al-supuesto-lder-del-crimen-organizado-en-lima/ 

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2 critically injured teenage boys in custody after stolen sedan hits viaduct in Chicago Lawn

Two critically injured teenage boys were arrested after crashing a stolen vehicle into a viaduct overnight in the Chicago Lawn neighborhood, Chicago police said.

Officers on patrol shortly after 1:15 a.m. saw a silver sedan crash into a viaduct in the 3500 block of West Marquette Road, police said. Police determined the vehicle had been reported stolen.

Both teens were placed into police custody and taken to Advocate Christ Medical Center in Oak Lawn where they were listed in critical condition.

The Major Accidents Investigation Unit was investigating, and charges were pending.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/01/28/accident-chicago-lawn/ 

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TikTok Users Report Trouble Posting About Epstein, ICE, Days After Company Finalizes Sale To US Investors

TikTok Users Report Trouble Posting About Epstein, ICE, Days After Company Finalizes Sale To US Investors

Censorship concerns are back in the spotlight after TikTok users claim to be having trouble posting about Jeffrey Epstein and ICE raids.

Days after the company finalized a sale to a consortium of American investors who now control TikTok’s business in the US – which averted a national ban of the app over national security concerns – users report being unable to use the word “Epstein” in direct messages

The company responded, telling NPR “We don’t have rules against sharing the name ‘Epstein’ in direct messages and are investigating why some users are experiencing issues.”

TikTok said none of its content moderation rules have changed.

Still, when some users tried to send direct messages containing the word “Epstein,” an automatic prompt appeared declaring that the message may be in violation of TikTok’s community guidelines. The messages were not sent, according to the prompt, “to protect our community.”

Tests by NPR, and other accounts on social media, show that it was happening inconsistently; Some users were able to send messages with “Epstein,” and some were not. The TikTok spokesman said that is consistent with the company’s own analysis so far, yet the exact cause is still under review.

TikTok users are also claiming that the platform is censoring information related to the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement actions, as many users on the platform report being unable to upload videos on the topic. 

The TikTok censorship this week is genuinely insane. It’s a very bad look to have more censorship under American management than under Chinese management. It almost goes without saying that if it doesn’t reverse course immediately, it deserves the scandal & exodus it’s getting.

— Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) January 28, 2026

Some are pointing a finger at TikTok’s new ownership – which includes lead investor Oracle, run by billionaire Larry Ellison, a close friend of President Trump. Users are now circulating the hashtag #TikTokCensorship on X. 

It’s nice to see Democrats suddenly discovering free speech.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) says this is at the ‘top of the list’ when it comes to threats to democracy. We don’t remember him piping up when conservatives were being censored for a decade…

I know it’s hard to track all the threats to democracy out there right now, but this is at the top of the list. https://t.co/WjB05qeQPN

— Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) January 26, 2026

TikTok said in a statement that ‘glitches’ on the app were due to a power outage at a US data center, causing videos to take longer to be uploaded and recommended to other users, and are “unrelated to last week’s news” of the finalized sale. 

Oracle, meanwhile, blamed the winter storm that has affected large swaths of central and eastern US, saying in a statement that an Oracle data center “experienced a temporary weather-related power outage,” triggering wide-spread “technical issues” for users of TikTok, said spox Michael Egbert, who added that the companies are working “quickly” to restore service and stabilize the app. 

On Tuesday, TikTok US Joint Venture said it had made “significant progress” in restoring service to US users, but noted that many might still have trouble uploading new videos.  

We’ve made significant progress in recovering our U.S. infrastructure with our U.S. data center partner. However, the U.S. user experience may still have some technical issues, including when posting new content. We’re committed to bringing TikTok back to its full capacity as…

— TikTok USDS Joint Venture (@tiktokusdsjv) January 27, 2026

Nurse Jen Hamilton, who has over 4.5 million TikTok followers, says that after she posted a still picture about Alex Pretti, a protester who was shot by one or more federal immigration agents on Saturday, her next four videos couldn’t be uploaded

“Something has shifted in the way that content is getting put on the platform, or allowed to be on the platform,” she told CNN. “And I just find it very ironic that it’s the same day that it takes over that people are not being able to post their stuff.”

While it would be difficult to prove TikTok is censoring content about ICE due to its opaque algorithm, it would also be within their legal right to do so, says Jeffrey Blevins, a professor at the University of Cincinnati who studies media law and ethics. 

“They’re a private platform. They have a First Amendment right to do that,” he said. “A lot of times it’s easy for us to think of social media as a public square, but it’s not public in a way that matters under the law.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/28/2026 – 09:10

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tiktok-users-report-trouble-posting-about-epstein-ice-days-after-company-finalizes-sale 

Posted in News

Woman, 46, found dead on floor of residence in Roseland

Chicago police are investigating the homicide of a 46-year-old woman found unresponsive on the floor of a residence Tuesday night in the Roseland neighborhood.

About 10 p.m. Tuesday, a witness discovered a 46-year-old woman lying unresponsive on the floor of a residence in the 10100 block of South State Street. Paramedics were called to the scene where the woman was pronounced dead, Chicago police said.

Detectives are investigating the circumstances surrounding the woman’s death. No one was in custody for the homicide.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/01/28/roseland-homicide/ 

Posted in News

Reserva Federal parece dispuesta a mantener tasas sin cambios

Por CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

La Reserva Federal probablemente mantendrá sin cambios su tasa de interés a corto plazo el miércoles, después de tres recortes el año pasado, ignorando la enorme presión de la Casa Blanca para reducir los costos de los préstamos en favor de esperar a ver cómo evoluciona la economía.

Las reducciones de tasas el año pasado buscaban apuntalar la economía y prevenir un deterioro más agudo en el mercado laboral, después de que la contratación se desacelerara casi por completo tras los aranceles del presidente Donald Trump en abril pasado. Sin embargo, hay indicios de que el desempleo se ha estabilizado y la economía podría estar repuntando. Al mismo tiempo, la inflación sigue obstinadamente por encima de la meta del banco central, del 2%. Todas esas tendencias abogan por mantener las tasas donde están.

Un tema clave que el presidente Jerome Powell probablemente abordará en su conferencia de prensa el miércoles es cuánto tiempo permanecerá la Fed en espera. El comité de fijación de tasas sigue dividido entre aquellos que se oponen a más recortes hasta que la inflación baje, y aquellos que quieren reducir las tasas para seguir apoyando la contratación.

En diciembre, solo 12 de los 19 participantes de las reuniones apoyaron al menos un recorte más de tasas este año. La mayoría de los economistas pronostican que la Fed recortará dos veces este año, probablemente en la reunión de junio o más tarde.

Los funcionarios del banco se reúnen esta semana bajo la sombra de una presión sin precedentes de la Casa Blanca bajo Trump. Powell anunció el 11 de enero que la Fed había recibido citaciones del Departamento de Justicia como parte de una investigación criminal sobre su testimonio ante el Congreso acerca de una renovación de 2.500 millones de dólares a la sede de la institución. Powell, en una declaración en video inusualmente directa, dijo que las citaciones eran un pretexto para castigar a la Fed por no recortar las tasas más rápidamente.

Y la semana pasada, la Corte Suprema abordó el intento de Trump de despedir a la gobernadora Lisa Cook por acusaciones de fraude hipotecario, que ella niega. Ningún presidente ha despedido a un gobernador en los 112 años de historia de la Fed. Los jueces, en un argumento oral, parecían inclinarse hacia permitir que ella permanezca en su trabajo hasta que se resuelva el caso.

Al mismo tiempo, Trump ha sugerido que está cerca de nombrar a un nuevo presidente de la Fed, para reemplazar a Powell una vez que su mandato termine en mayo. El anuncio podría llegar tan pronto como esta semana, aunque ha sido retrasado antes.

Los esfuerzos del presidente para presionar a la Fed podrían haber sido contraproducentes, dicen los economistas, ya que los republicanos en el Senado expresaron su apoyo a Powell y amenazaron con bloquear a cualquier reemplazo nominado por Trump.

“Las últimas semanas han sido bastante positivas para la independencia de la Fed”, estimó Patricia Zobel, exfuncionaria de la Fed de Nueva York y ahora jefa de investigación macroeconómica en Guggenheim Investments.

Aun así, todo el tumulto podría haber llevado a Powell a insistir en sus posiciones mientras se acerca al final de su mandato. Vincent Reinhart, ex economista de la Fed y ahora economista jefe en BNY Investments, señaló que Powell ha dado solo un discurso sobre la economía desde septiembre.

Podría estar dejando que otros funcionarios de la Fed asuman la tarea de explicar por qué el banco central podría abstenerse de recortar tasas en los próximos meses, indicó Reinhart. También subraya que el presidente no toma decisiones sobre las tasas solo, agregó.

“La contribución del presidente Powell a las noticias sobre nuestra comprensión del próximo movimiento de la Fed ha sido tan pequeña como nunca, durante su mandato”, comentó Reinhart.

Solo 12 de los 19 miembros del comité de fijación de tasas de la Fed tienen voto, incluidos los siete miembros de la junta de gobernadores, el presidente de la Fed de Nueva York y un grupo rotativo de cuatro presidentes de los bancos regionales de la Fed.

Este año, Beth Hammack, presidenta de la Fed de Cleveland; Neel Kashkari, presidente de la Fed de Minneapolis; Lorie Logan, presidenta de la Fed de Dallas; y Anna Paulson, presidenta de la Fed de Filadelfia, votarán sobre las decisiones de tasas. Todos han expresado recientemente cierto escepticismo sobre la necesidad de más recortes en el corto plazo.

En un discurso a principios de este mes, Paulson señaló que una economía en mejora debería permitir más recortes de tasas más adelante en el año.

“Veo que la inflación se modera, el mercado laboral se estabiliza y el crecimiento se sitúa alrededor del 2% este año”, dijo. “Si todo eso sucede, entonces algunos ajustes modestos adicionales” a la tasa clave de la Fed “probablemente serían apropiados más adelante en el año”.

Reembolsos de impuestos más grandes de lo habitual en los próximos meses deberían ayudar a impulsar más el gasto del consumidor, esperan los economistas. Y un crecimiento más rápido podría eventualmente impulsar la contratación, que ha sido notablemente débil incluso cuando la economía está expandiéndose.

Con las empresas apenas añadiendo empleos, los consumidores siguen pesimistas sobre la economía. La medida de confianza del consumidor del Conference Board cayó a un mínimo de 11 años en enero, apuntó el grupo de investigación empresarial el martes.

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Esta historia fue traducida del inglés por un editor de AP con ayuda de una herramienta de inteligencia artificial generativa.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/01/28/reserva-federal-parece-dispuesta-a-mantener-tasas-sin-cambios/ 

Posted in News

Northern Iowa recruit Vince Jasinski is ‘changing the standard’ for Grant. His sister’s standard looms large.

Grant senior Vince Jasinski has been pursuing a state title since his older sister Ayane reached the top of the podium in 2023.

To this day, Ayane Jasinski has cast a long shadow.

“I learned from her that it’s all hard work and how far you want to push yourself,” Vince Jasinski said. “She used to have double practices a day. It motivated me a lot, especially when she says she’s a state champion and used to brag about it.

“She will probably be there at state watching, and one of the first things I will say if I win state is ‘I did too.’”

A two-time state qualifier who placed fourth at 126 pounds in Class 3A last year, Jasinski (37-5) is more prepared than ever for the opportunity. He has lost only one match against in-state opponents this season and is ranked No. 1 at 144 in 3A by Illinois Matmen and the Illinois Wrestling Coaches and Officials Association.

Jasinski, a Northern Iowa recruit, holds a single-season school record with 35 pins, and his next pin will be the 100th of his career. His string of achievements this season includes first place at Barrington’s Moore-Prettyman-Dunn Invitational, third place at the Cheesehead Invitational in Wisconsin and second place at the Lake County Invitational last week.

Grant’s Vince Jasinski, top, pins Lake Zurich’s Lincoln Riemer during a quarterfinal match in the 144-pound weight class at the Lake County Invitational in Fox Lake on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026. (Rob Dicker / News-Sun)

Grant coach Mark Jolcover, who wrestled at Northern Iowa, said Jasinski has come a long way in the six years they’ve known each other.

“Vince loves the sport,” Jolcover said. “He’s a student of the game and takes it very seriously. I’ve seen huge growth in his maturity and the expectations he holds for himself through the years. He takes his craft very seriously with a businesslike approach day in and day out. Vince has done an exceptional job of changing the standard for our program.”

Grant senior Erik Rodriguez, a Central Michigan recruit who placed third at 138 in 3A last season and has more than 150 career wins, has wrestled with Jasinski since they were 5 years old and said Jasinski’s secret is his relentlessness.

“Vince is a very stingy wrestler,” Rodriguez said. “He makes you work for every point. Vince is very quick on his feet. He can get to his attacks quickly and smoothly, making it very hard to defend some of his shots.”

Grant’s Vince Jasinski, left, talks with coach Mark Jolcover before a quarterfinal match in the 144-pound weight class at the Lake County Invitational in Fox Lake on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026. (Rob Dicker / News-Sun)

Grant senior Larry Quirk agreed with Rodriguez.

“Vince has an obsession with wrestling and the need to get better,” Quirk said. “Vince is one of the most competitive people I’ve ever met. He tries to get an edge over the competition in everything.

“He is one of the most gutsy yet high-IQ wrestlers I’ve seen on the mat. His ability to push the pace on his opponents and wear them down mentally is something he excels at.”

Jasinski’s rare in-state loss this season came at the Lake County Invitational. Jolcover thinks it’s the first time Jasinski has been pinned by an Illinois wrestler since his sophomore season.

“Last Saturday was disappointing, but I know what it’s going to do for him moving forward and propel him forward,” Jolcover said. “Sometimes, a loss is the best thing you need. No one is going to ask who won the Lake County Tournament at state.”

Grant’s Vince Jasinski reacts after winning a match in the 126-pound weight class during a Northern Lake County Conference dual meet against Grayslake Central in Fox Lake on Thursday, Jan. 16, 2024. (Mark Ukena / News-Sun)

Jasinski, who lost both of his matches at state during his sophomore season and just missed a top-three medal last season, has been there before.

“I’ve learned it’s a process and it won’t happen in one day or practice,” he said. “That helped me a lot to realize it will take some losses and they will teach me.

“Lake County made me realize no matter how good you are, you can always get caught in a position. I used that loss as a lesson, and it motivated me.”

Bobby Narang is a freelance reporter.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/01/28/wrestling-grant-vince-jasinski/