The NY Times in a new deep dive of what governing structures now look like inside Iran says what’s already long been obvious to many in the wake of longtime Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death: “When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled Iran as the supreme leader, he exerted absolute power over all decisions about war, peace and negotiations with the United States. His son and successor does not play the same role.”

The publication says it was able to interview at least half-a-dozen Iranian insiders, including IRGC officials, and individuals who know the younger Khamenei “well”. The NY Times describes of Mojtaba Khamenei: “His father, wife and son were all killed. Access to him is extremely difficult and limited now. He is surrounded mostly by a team of doctors and medical staff who are treating the injuries he sustained in the airstrikes.”

ISNA/AFP/Getty Images

Apparently even top ‘trusted’ generals and IRGC commanders do visit him for fear of being surveilled and tracked to his location by Israel and the United States.

Per the sources cited in the Times, “Though Mr. Khamenei was gravely wounded, he is mentally sharp and engaged, according to four senior Iranian officials familiar with his health.”

And more: “One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak, the officials said, adding that, eventually, he will need plastic surgery.”

All of this provides an explanation as to why he has never been seen or heard from in public since Trump’s Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. He has not so much as been photographed, and when state media has issued a few prior statements, it does so via text or what appears to be AI-configured audio over state media airwaves.

This fact has unleashed an avalanche of speculation as to his fate over the course of the war, and who is “really in charge”. And yet it’s also well-known that Iran is able to function militarily based on autonomy and dispersion of command among units, with the IRGC given more independence to act.

The White House has alleged there are essentially two factions vying for power and direction over the war – the civilian leadership and the IRGC command sides. 

“Mojtaba is not yet in full command or control,” Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa for Chatham House, claimed in the NYT report. But as expected the situation is nuanced: “There is, perhaps, deference to him,” he continued. “He signs off or he is part of the decision-making structure in a formal way. But he is presented with fait accompli presentations right now.”

As we and other have pointed out, in public at least the de facto day-to-day leader of the country remains speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He has taken point as lead negotiator with the United States in Pakistan, and has been the public face of updating his country and the world on both the status of the war and the now stalled negotiations.

One other interesting detail in the Times report is seen in the following:

Messages to him are handwritten, sealed in envelopes and relayed via a human chain from one trusted courier to the next, who travel on highways and back roads, in cars and on motorcycles until they reach his hide-out. His guidance on issues snakes back the same way.

Some pundits have correctly pointed out that skepticism is warranted, also given the NYT’s often deeply inaccurate reporting on Bush’s Iraq war invasion, and other Mideast conflict zones including Syria:

With all due respect, remain skeptical about the credibility of the The New York Times report.

– If leaks of this magnitude were truly that easy, it would have been just as easy for Mossad to obtain precise information on Mojtaba Khamenei’s whereabouts, with obvious… https://t.co/g36ONAQUpd

— Babak Vahdad (@BabakVahdad) April 23, 2026

The NY Times alleged findings has it to the conclusion that even big decisions are currently under control of the generals and IRGC apparatus: “The combination of concern for his safety, his injuries and the sheer challenge of reaching him has resulted in Mr. Khamenei’s delegating decision making to the generals, at least for now,” the report concludes.

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told senators on April 21 that glyphosate, a key ingredient in herbicides like Roundup, causes cancer and that human consumption of the chemical should be minimized.

His comments came amid growing political and legal controversy over the chemical, which is widely used in agriculture. During a Senate Budget Committee hearing, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) asked Kennedy whether the chemical caused cancer.

Without hesitation, Kennedy replied, “Yes.” Schatz also asked if the chemical was safe for human use.

“I mean, safe, or does it kill weeds? It kills weeds,” Kennedy said. “I would say it’s important to minimize consumption of glyphosate as much as possible.”

Schatz told Kennedy he was being “uncharacteristically diplomatic about glyphosate,” which Kennedy, a standard-bearer for the Make America Healthy Again movement, denied.

Kennedy helped secure a $289 million award from Monsanto in 2018 while representing a client who alleged Roundup caused him to develop non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Now, Kennedy is the leading health official for an administration that is defending Monsanto in a Supreme Court case set for oral argument just days after the health secretary’s testimony.

That case, known as Monsanto v. Durnell, similarly involves a man alleging that Monsanto’s Roundup caused him to develop non-Hodgkins lymphoma. The Justice Department didn’t argue as much on glyphosate’s alleged health hazards as it did that the lower-court verdict against Monsanto was legally flawed.

President Donald Trump addressed the issue in February, signing an executive order that said glyphosate-based herbicides were critical to the nation’s economy and national security.

“Any major restrictions in access to glyphosate-based herbicides would result in economic losses for growers and make it untenable for them to meet growing food and feed demands,” his order reads.

“Ensuring an adequate supply of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides is thus crucial to the national security and defense, including food-supply security, which is essential to protecting the health and safety of Americans.”

Schatz told Kennedy he had many friends in Hawaii who supported the health secretary, but they were shocked when Kennedy put out a February statement in support of Trump’s executive order on glyphosate, which would also give immunity to manufacturers if Congress were to pass it into law.

“Pesticides and herbicides are toxic by design,” Kennedy wrote in a post on X. “Unfortunately, our agricultural system depends heavily on these chemicals.”

The executive order, and Kennedy’s reaction, led to pushback among Make America Healthy Again, or MAHA, supporters, who denounced Trump’s characterization of glyphosate as critical to national security.

“I was very clear with the president about my own displeasure with the executive order,” Kennedy told Schatz. “The president felt it was necessary for national security reasons.”

The health secretary said the idea for the executive order came from the Pentagon, and the administration regards the issue as one that Trump inherited—not created.

The overwhelming majority of American agriculture relies on glyphosate-based herbicides, and “100 percent of that is coming from China,” Kennedy said.

“You have an adversary that could literally shut down the American food supply overnight,” he testified. “[Trump’s] executive order does not increase the use of glyphosate. All it says is, as long as we’re dependent on it, we’re going to make it here.”

In Kennedy’s X post, he stated that cross-agency steps are being taken to shift away from harmful agricultural practices. The health secretary reaffirmed this goal to lawmakers at the April 21 hearing.

Monsanto has denied Roundup causes cancer and has argued no cancer warning is necessary because the Environmental Protection Agency has historically considered Roundup and glyphosate safe to use.

Goldman analyst Christine Cho has published her latest quarterly survey of 2,000 consumers for 1Q26, pointing to a softer restaurant environment. Muted demand backdrop suggests that the K-shaped economy continues to fester, with working-poor consumers still facing the greatest downward pressure.

Respondents expect their visits to limited-service restaurants (LSRs), restaurants where customers generally order and pay at a counter, kiosk, drive-thru, or app, such as McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s, Chipotle, CAVA, Sweetgreen, Panera, and others, to hold steady for the next three months, while casual dining still has some room for visit growth, though at a slower pace than in prior quarters. 

The respondents under most pressure to spend on food away from home were among lower-income households, with roughly half of consumers earning under $70,000 saying they plan to dine out less.

Another key takeaway is the growing divide in perceptions of value. Fast food’s “bang for the buck” has improved since 3Q25, while casual dining’s value perception has deteriorated to the lowest level in Goldman’s dataset.

Cho attributes the improvement in fast food partly to value menus, meal deals, and marketing tie-ins, which are boosting scores for value, quality, and willingness to pay more.

“Consumers still see grocery as better value,” Cho noted.

Intention to spend was flat. 

GS Brand Scores — Major fast food brands showing sequential improvement with stepped-up value focus

Exhibit 11: Summary of GS Restaurant Survey Scores – % change vs. 3Q25 Summary

Exhibit 12: Summary of GS Restaurant Survey Scores – YoY % change Summary

Cho then covered which restaurant stocks looked the strongest or weakest in the survey:

Stock callouts. QSR was a standout in the monthly dashboard, showing trends consistent with higher brand scores vs. 3Q25 for Burger King (+6.5%), Popeyes (+3.6%), and Tim Hortons (+1.7%) in our survey. DRI remains a casual dining outlier as accelerating NPS trends align with positive transaction growth and an increase in Olive Garden brand score vs. 3Q25. MCD and YUM are successfully pivoting toward value-led growth, contrasting deterioration in conversion and quality scores at SG and BLMN.

The S&P 500 Restaurants Sub-Industry Index has largely traded sideways since early 2025. 

Our takeaway is that fast food’s aggressive marketing of meal deals and other value offerings has clearly resonated with budget-conscious consumers amid K-shaped economy woes. 

Professional subscribers can read “Deep-dive into 1Q26 restaurant survey” at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Three weeks ago, when Bloomberg pointed out that Andurand was the best performing hedge fund in March thanks to its notorious levered long oil positioning (and really nothing else), we said they may want to refresh his exposure after the April 7 oil crash.

May want to F5 on Andurand after today’s near record oil crash https://t.co/tlkgz3dXJa

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 8, 2026

Three weeks later, they did: according to a report published this morning, Pierre Andurand’s largest “hedge fund” (and when it comes to Andurand, the word “hedging” is a catastrophic misnomer), plunged about 52% in the first half of April, wiping out all of its first quarter gains and then some made on bullish oil bets at the start of the Iran war. 

His fund slumped this month through April 17 and is now down almost 37% for the year despite oil being substantially higher YTD. It comes after the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund delivered a 31% gain in March even as other hedge funds were caught off guard by the huge swings in commodities prices and inflation expectations unleashed by the war. Perhaps in the parallel universe inhabited by the ultra liberal trader, oil can somehow magically rise to infinity without demand destruction. Well… no.

Andurand trying to lever up his oil bets to 100x.

The fund – which is basically a 5x levered bet on oil, and which refuses to ever consider the possibility its manager is wrong – has no set risk limits and regularly delivers both double digit gains and losses… though in fairness it has been more losses than gains. 

Oil prices posted a record monthly rally in March, driving the firm’s gains, as war between the US and Iran throttled exports from the Persian Gulf and triggered the most severe supply disruption in history. Brent futures, an international benchmark, climbed to almost $120 a barrel on March 9. Yet instead of taking profits on the way down, Andurand appears to have doubled and tripled down. And that’s how he wiped out more than half of his fund’s AUM in 2 weeks.

It begs the question: which foolish prime broker generously gave Andurand the insane leverage to lose such a staggering amount of money in just two weeks?

Unlike Andurand, the Iranian chaos has been lucrative for oil trading houses that buy and sell physical cargoes of crude, driving outsize profits at firms including Vitol Group, Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group.

For Andurand, the setback in March was a reminder of how volatile commodity markets can be. The fund lost about 40% last year after making a 50% gain the previous year. Yet with the 37% drop in 2026, it is pretty clear that not a single investor in Andurand’s hedge fund is even remotely close to ever breaking even on their catastrophic investment. 

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

Two US congressional candidates and one sitting lawmaker have received fines and bans from Kalshi after they were found betting on the outcomes of their election races, as prediction market platforms crack down on insider trading.

Matt Klein, a sitting member of the Minnesota State Senate, was fined $539 for betting on his primary race in his bid for the US House of Representatives, which is set to take place in August. Ezekiel Enriquez, who ran for a US House seat in March, received a $784 penalty, according to Kalshi’s notice of settlement.

Another case involved Mark Moran, a candidate in Virginia’s US Senate race, who received a $6,229 penalty and was ordered to return any profits from his trades after allegedly refusing to cooperate with Kalshi to resolve the issue. All three were banned from the platform for five years.

Prediction markets, which let users trade contracts on the outcomes of future events, have faced growing scrutiny over insider trading and possible violations of gambling laws. Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, have pledged to introduce stricter controls and crack down on unlawful activity.

Lawmakers offer reasons for insider trades

Moran said in a statement on X that he placed his wager to test Kalshi’s procedures and see how the platform would respond to insider trading.

“YES, I did bet ~$100 on myself on Kalshi because I wanted to get caught,” he said, adding that he “wanted to see (1) if Kalshi would come after me and (2) what their path would be.”

Source: Mark Moran

Klein said in a statement that he placed the wager out of curiosity about how prediction markets worked, but later learned it violated platform rules.

“In compliance with their request, I paid a penalty and agreed to be suspended from the platform. That was the only wager I have ever made on a predictions market,” he added.

Klein is a co-sponsor of a bill in the Minnesota Legislature that aims to ban wagers on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections or policy decisions.

Cointelegraph was unable to reach Ezekiel Enriquez for comment.

Kalshi’s ongoing insider trading crackdown

Bobby DeNault, Kalshi’s head of enforcement, said Tuesday these cases violated Kalshi’s exchange rules but didn’t warrant referral to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the Department of Justice for further investigation and prosecution.

“Regardless of the size of a trade, political candidates who can influence a market based on whether they stay in or out of a race violate our rules. No matter how small the size of the trade, any trade that is found to have violated our exchange rules will be punished,” he added.

The platform issued a $2,000 fine and a five-year ban in February to a former California gubernatorial contender for betting on his own candidacy last year.

The Department of the Air Force (DAF) has moved forward with its Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations (ANPI) initiative, announcing specific company pairings to develop microreactors at three installations. 

Radiant Industries will partner with Buckley Space Force Base in Colorado. Radiant is developing Kaleidos, a portable 1 MW helium gas-cooled microreactor using TRISO fuel. Factory-built and transportable by truck or aircraft, the unit requires no on-site water, relying instead on air cooling with fans and passive natural convection. It targets military installations among other resilient power needs. Radiant plans its first demonstration at Idaho National Laboratory’s DOME test bed, with criticality planned before July 4th.

Westinghouse will deploy at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana. Westinghouse brings decades of nuclear expertise and its eVinci microreactor. This heat-pipe cooled design produces about 5 MW, offering eight-plus years of fuel life with minimal maintenance. Fully factory-assembled and transportable in shipping containers, the unit operates without water cooling and supports remote or edge-of-grid applications while pairing well with renewables.

Antares Nuclear will build at Joint Base San Antonio in Texas. Antares is focused on its R1 microreactor, a sodium heat-pipe cooled system delivering 100 kWe to 1 MWe with over six years between refueling. The modular design emphasizes reliability for defense-critical assets and incorporates high-temperature heat pipes and automated controls. We recently covered Antares and their first of a kind approval from the DOE for their Mark-0 test reactor at Idaho National Lab. 

ANPI’s goal is operating at least one advanced nuclear reactor on a DAF installation by 2030 or sooner.

We reported on the ANPI program’s launch and the Defense Innovation Unit’s selection of eight companies in April 2025, part of a larger Pentagon push for resilient, emissions-free power at military sites. The effort aligns with the Army’s related Janus program targeting operational microreactors by 2028. 

The initiative remains separate from the standalone microreactor pilot at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. With next steps now underway, the DAF is positioning itself to deliver reliable power where it matters most.
 

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

While mediators are pushing to get Iran and the US back into negotiations on Friday, the US still says it wants to see unified response from Iran which hands over its enriched uranium. But what will change between now and Friday? Two things, perhaps, and both pointing towards an expected escalation before any deal.

First, Axios quotes US officials that there is an unofficial 3-5 day window for Iran to get the correct unified proposal together before bombing restarts; the Israelis report Sunday is the real deadline.
Second, despite the ‘ceasefire’, there is lots of firing and no cessation in blockading in Hormuz and further afield. Within the Strait, Iran fired on ships and outright seized two, while there are suspicions it used speedboats to mine the key waterway more extensively. Outside Hormuz, CENTCOM denied reports that its blockade is leaking and intercepted three Iranian oil tankers near India, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka, as US Senator Graham warned the Iran oil blockade “could become global soon.” Against that backdrop, the US Navy Secretary is leaving his post and Navy Undersecretary Hung Cao, a notably MAGA figure, will for now replace him.

In the broader Middle East, the US is now using Ukrainian counter-drone tech and support teams, underlining how rapidly things can change when tech and war get together. Certainties, production methods, and tactics and strategies can all flip faster than those at the top of large organisations realise. 

Lebanon is said to be seeking a one-month truce extension of its current ceasefire with Israel as Hezbollah again targeted IDF troops with drones, drawing fire back, with casualties. The US embassy in Beirut is urging its citizens to leave the country amid security risks.

The US has suspended dollar shipments to Iraq and frozen security cooperation programs with its military to try to force Baghdad to act against Iranian militias active in the country. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent claims several Gulf and Asian allies, not just the UAE, have requested dollar swap lines. That’s further extends the list of potential recipients outside the cloistered ‘economic policy era’ circle of the UK, Europe, and Japan, etc., as part of a new US ‘economic statecraft era’ aimed at anchoring the global role of the US dollar on US, not global, terms. Indeed, while FX markets still look at EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY as benchmarks, they are arguably far less important in the emerging physical economy of a new world order based on resources, industrial production, and AI.

Finally, a Trump envoy is seeking to replace Iran with Italy in the looming 2026 FIFA World Cup, which isn’t likely to shift Tehran from its strategy of playing for extra time and winning on penalties.

The ‘Minecraft’ story above is crucial to note. The marine drones now being employed are relatively untested compared to older minesweeping techniques, but estimates using previous benchmarks run from weeks to months to clear Hormuz, depending on how many mines are present. That could add to an energy normalization timeline which already risks seeping into Q4. (See our latest analysis from Joe Delaura and Florence Schmit here, but note that it says in red, bold font: “Futures markets are still materially under-pricing the real supply risk facing both crude oil and natural gas.”)

The Iran war is also driving up Panama Canal lane prices to a record high of up to five times the pre-war level, mainly as Asian LNG importers bid for access. 

Indeed, showing warcraft doesn’t only appear in the energy (then food) components of CPI, the World of Warcraft online platform just increased its UK 12-month subscription rate by 7%, its Georgian by 19.1%, its Kazakh by 37.5%, and made Turkish subscribers pay in euro. At the same time, the US monthly rate for an annual contract has remained unchanged at $12.99 since 2004. Ironically, that captures the Great Game being played out globally better than the market analysts uncomfortably talking about wars do.

EU-Turkey relations have separately nosedived following impolitic comments just before an EU summit today in… Cyprus. Its key itinerary covers plans for the energy crisis, “defensive autonomy”, and strategic links between Europe, the Middle East, and India. 

Brussels reportedly has a plan for what it now (correctly) calls the “world’s biggest energy crisis”, but the focus is apparently on “coordination”: in doing what? 
Cyprus wants an EU collective defense plan after being attacked by an Iranian drone. That’s defence autonomy; but it would imply the bloc getting dragged into a war it insists is not its. Then again, what use is collective defence if there is a ‘Yes, but not this war’ opt-out? 
Re: strategic links, the key plan is the IMEC corridor linking India to Europe via the Middle East (as Saudi Arabia talks of building a railway to Europe through Syria and Turkey). However, that involves not just ending the Iran war but defeating Tehran, which has blocked IMEC. Europe’s stand-off approach therefore gives it no voice on the emerging geopolitical architecture.   

In terms of that defense autonomy, Trump is reportedly considering a tiered system for NATO to reward allies who rearm and are willing to fight, and punish those who don’t and won’t (and won’t allow the US to use the bases they have built on their territory). It might imply a shift of US forces, and focus, from west to east Europe, and perhaps from Spain to Morocco.

The USTR is also pushing allies to pay more for critical minerals to decouple from China’s monopoly, which, as long argued, will also require tariffs and subsidies. Obviously, that’s inflationary. Yet the only alternative is accepting Chinese dominance in the sector. Reportedly, many US allies seem to prefer that option… which points to a US trade split with those allies.

Meanwhile, the US is reportedly demanding concessions from Canada before USMCA trade talks start as a form of “entry fee.” These include opening dairy markets beyond USMCA commitments, eliminating the digital services tax that affects US tech giants, and accepting expanded US border enforcement jurisdiction on Canadian soil. Such US demands reduce the negotiation from one of equals to a realpolitik reflecting the economic weight each has, as well as treading on direct issues of sovereignty. Indeed, one wonders if/when the US will raise the issue of a common external tariff for the USMCA, de facto set by the US, which seems the logical economic statecraft move. For Canadians, this is all shocking and unprecedented. 

Yet the same realpolitik and sovereignty dynamics were evident in UK–EU negotiations during Brexit and are again now as the UK flirts with a European realignment. Canada can reject these US demands or even risk walking away from the USMCA. As with the UK, it would then have to work out where it fits in globally instead. Ottawa is already looking for alternative options for the 75% of its goods that go to deeply integrated US supply chains. However, while the world likes its raw materials (if the infrastructure to deliver them can be built), industrial goods providing good jobs in Canada may prove a trickier question. Notably, US auto tariffs are already threatening the kind of downturn which that key Canadian industry last saw post-GFC. In short, the outcome of this US economic statecraft exercise remains unclear – but the potential economic impact is not.

Minecraft; Warcraft; Statecraft. You’ll notice I couldn’t craft any “rate cuts?” in either.