Posted in News

Wauconda’s Maddie May is the center of attention. She gets that now. Watch out. ‘I have a lot of confidence.’

Wauconda junior catcher Maddie May is prepared for the attention this time around.

After batting .500 during her breakout freshman season, May was a feared hitter. So she wasn’t going to surprise anyone last year.

“It was tougher last season because the coaches on the other team knew how I played and had more info on me,” she said. “I had to make more adjustments on how I was being pitched.

“I had a couple of games where I was walked intentionally. It riled me up more than it should have. It should’ve been more of an ego boost. Maybe that’s why I’m so eager to play this season. I have a lot of confidence and am ready for a special season.”

Opposing pitchers won’t be nearly as confident facing May, a two-time Class 3A all-state third-team selection who still hit .459 with four home runs and 37 RBIs last season, even after knee surgery in December 2024.

May is aiming higher as the Bulldogs (10-25) set their sights on unseating state power Antioch, which has won four straight Northern Lake County Conference titles outright since the teams tied for first in 2021 and has won five straight sectional titles.

Wauconda’s Maddie May bats during a practice on campus on Monday, March 2, 2026. (Ryan Rayburn / News-Sun)

Wauconda coach Tim Orisek also expects May will leap forward.

“Catching-wise, her leadership and aggressiveness stand out to me,” Orisek said. “She’s very aware of the situations and knows how to handle the pitching staff.

“But offensively is where she really shines. She’s getting better every season, gaining power and quicker bat speed. She can hit to all fields with power.”

The Bulldogs return six starters but have eight underclassmen on the roster, so they will rely heavily on May, a team captain. That includes Orisek.

“Maddie takes a lot off my plate in terms of managing the catching part of the game,” Orisek said.

May, who has offers from Parkside and Catawba College, agrees that she has made strides both behind the plate and at the plate.

“I definitely put a lot more work into catching,” she said. “Last year, I wanted to hit more home runs after not hitting any home runs in my freshman year. I thought that was a big improvement. I feel like I’ve gotten stronger and worked more on the mental approach of the game.”

Wauconda junior pitcher Aubrey Fetingis, who called May “one of my closest friends,” noted that May has the ability to settle her down in the circle.

“She knows when her pitchers need a minute and calls time and talks to us,” Fetingis said. “She never fails to bring up the energy.”

Wauconda sophomore first baseman/pitcher Georgia Reimers also likes having May behind the plate.

“I think what makes Maddie such a good catcher is how she is able to call games,” Reimers said. “She understands the pitches and spins well enough to know what to call on different types of batters.”

Wauconda’s Maddie May practices with teammates on campus on Monday, March 2, 2026. (Ryan Rayburn / News-Sun)

Orisek said May is already shaping into one of Wauconda’s greats.

“We’ve had some really good players go through our program in the last five years, but I would put her right up there among the best,” Orisek said. “She still has two years to go.”

Bobby Narang is a freelance reporter.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/06/high-school-softball-wauconda-maddie-may/ 

Posted in News

“This Will Bring Down Global Economy”: Qatar’s Energy Minister Offers Dire Warning About Hormuz Chokepoint Chaos

“This Will Bring Down Global Economy”: Qatar’s Energy Minister Offers Dire Warning About Hormuz Chokepoint Chaos

Brent crude futures are on track for their biggest weekly gain since the early days of Covid, with the move now exceeding the 20% weekly spike at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, as the U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, Operation Epic Fury, has tipped the Gulf into an energy crisis, freezing commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing some regional oil and gas production offline.

On Friday, Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told the Financial Times that the Gulf conflict could trigger a global economic shock, warning that continued fighting would force all Gulf energy exporters to halt output and could send Brent crude prices north of $150 a barrel.

Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours.

Unreal.

Source: @MarineTraffic pic.twitter.com/krcT5qp4ik

— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) March 5, 2026

Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” Kaabi explained. “If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.”

Qatar is the world’s second-largest producer of LNG and was forced to declare force majeure earlier this week after IRGC drone strikes on its Ras Laffan plant.

This will bring down the economies of the world,” he warned. “If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”

Kaabi continued, “We don’t yet know the extent of the damage, as it is currently still being assessed. It is not yet clear how long repairs will take.”

On Tuesday, we provided readers with the number of days of disruption needed in the Gulf area (the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint) to trigger actual panic, that is 25. Read the full report here.

And for Zerohedge Premium and Pro subs. JPMorgan crunched the math on Hormuz and revealed just how many days until chaos (report here). 

The math behind the forced shut ins https://t.co/SJ88Pky7D3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 6, 2026

Then, on Thursday, energy economist Anas Alhajji spoke with top UBS analysts on a webinar that also provided a timeline for energy market chaos and the risks of an impending economic shock.

“Our main scenario is that if this lasts four weeks, things will be completely out of control. And when I say out of control, I mean that even if China starts releasing oil from its inventories, the problem is that my guess is China would also restrict exports, which means that oil would remain in China. We were counting on that oil being in the market, and now it is not going to be in the market,” Alhajji said.

Alhajji outlined critical questions:

Is the war about Iran’s nuclear program, or is something much larger at play, with Iran serving more as a trigger or for broader strategic objectives?

The distinction matters significantly because the medium- and long-term outcomes would look very different.

Should attention be focused narrowly on Iran’s nuclear program and regime change, or should the situation be analyzed within the much wider context of China, trade wars & tariffs, AI competition, Panama Canal, Red Sea, Venezuela, Syria, & Greenland?

Are we observing “conflicts” within a larger “CONFLICT,” where some groups are opportunistically exploiting the situation to pursue their own “local” objectives?

As well as the problem:

The problem now is attacks that spark panic buying while Saudi Arabia cannot react. Thus, U.S. SPR release is limited, and China might ban exports. Prices would go above $100 easily, but fear would contain demand growth, limiting the increase in oil prices. The impact on LNG and NGLs is higher than on oil.

We cannot go back quickly to normal. It will take at least 2 months if the war stops tomorrow. (logistics and technical issues)

Lack of international cooperation (Every country for itself)

In energy markets, Brent crude futures are up 21%, exceeding the 20% spike at the start of the Ukraine-Russia war, and are on track for their largest weekly gain since the first week of May 2020.

Back to 2024 highs. 

There are no signs, at the moment, that the conflict is nearing an end. In fact, there are reports that IRGC forces just hit a US-owned oil tanker near Kuwait.

Goldman analysts earlier this week warned about $100/bbl crude oil prices. Disruptions across the Gulf have already sent diesel futures up 40% this week, while central banks are warning of a possible inflation spike.

Asia’s exposure to Gulf oil is concerning, but China’s exposure is even more alarming. This suggests that if the conflict persists, Beijing could be facing an incoming shock that risks morphing into a financial crisis

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2026 – 07:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/will-bring-down-global-economy-qatars-energy-minister-offers-dire-warning-about-hormuz 

Posted in News

Intense Israeli strikes hit Iran and Lebanon as US warns the bombardment will ‘surge dramatically’

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Intense Israeli airstrikes pounded the capitals of Iran and Lebanon on Friday as the United States said it had struck an Iranian drone carrier at sea in its unrelenting campaign against the Islamic Republic’s fleet of warships.

Iran launched new retaliatory attacks in the Middle East at the end of a full week of bombardment, which U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned was “about to surge dramatically.”

President Trump says he wants to be involved in picking Iran’s next leader as war ripples across the region

Israel’s military said Friday morning it had begun “a broad-scale wave of strikes” on Tehran, Iran’s capital. Witnesses described the Israeli airstrikes as particularly intense, shaking homes in the area. Others reported explosions around the Iranian city of Kermanshah in an area that is home to multiple missile bases.

The Israeli military said strikes have already destroyed most of Iran’s air defenses and missile launchers.

The war has escalated to affect countries across the Middle East and beyond. Early Friday, Iran fired missile and drone attacks into Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, all countries that host U.S. forces. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

In Lebanon, where the war has rekindled fighting between Israel and Iran-allied Hezbollah militants, Israel launched a series of airstrikes late Thursday into Friday in the southern suburbs of Beirut and other areas. Motorists jammed roads trying to flee or seek shelter.

The U.S. and Israel have battered Iran with nationwide strikes, targeting their military capabilities, leadership and nuclear program.

In addition to Israel, Iran’s attacks have targeted their Arab neighbors, disrupted oil supplies and snarled global air travel. The war has killed at least 1,230 people in Iran, more than 120 in Lebanon and around a dozen in Israel, according to officials in those countries. Six U.S. troops have been killed.

The United Nations high commissioner for human rights, Volker Türk, urged all countries involved to de-escalate, saying “the world urgently needs to see steps to contain and extinguish this blaze.”

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Friday that “some countries” had begun mediation efforts in the conflict, without elaborating.

US says it struck an Iranian drone carrier

The U.S. military said early Friday that it struck an Iranian drone carrier, setting it ablaze.

The U.S. military’s Central Command released black-and-white footage of the burning carrier. The Iranian military did not immediately acknowledge the attack.

House narrowly rejects Iran war powers resolution in early test of President Trump’s strategy

The drone carrier, the IRIS Shahid Bagheri, is a converted container ship with a 180-meter-long (yard) runway for drones. The vessel can travel up to 22,000 nautical miles without needing to refuel in ports, reports said at the time of its 2025 inauguration.

Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, described the carrier as “roughly the size of a World War II aircraft carrier.”

“And as we speak, it’s on fire,” Cooper told reporters.

Earlier in the week, an American submarine sank an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka as it was returning from an exercise hosted by the Indian navy that the U.S. also joined. Sri Lanka’s navy rescued 32 crew members and recovered 87 bodies.

Under cover of darkness Friday morning, B-2 stealth bombers dropped dozens of 2,000 pound “penetrator” bombs on deeply buried ballistic missile launchers inside Iran, Cooper said.

Iran targets countries hosting US forces

Qatar said early Friday it intercepted a drone attack targeting Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts the forward headquarters of the U.S. Central Command.

Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed three ballistic missiles fired early Friday toward Prince Sultan Air Base south of Riyadh, which also hosts U.S. forces, said a spokesperson for Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry.

Air raid sirens sounded in Bahrain, where the Interior Ministry said Iranian strikes targeted two hotels and a residential building. It said there were no casualties. In Kuwait, where the six U.S. soldiers were killed Sunday, the army said air defenses were activated when missile and drone attacks breached its airspace.

The unified military command of the Gulf Cooperation Council was one of the facilities attacked in Bahrain, according to Qatar, which has troops assigned there. Qatar called the assault “a direct threat to its security and stability and the security of the region.”

The British ambassador to Bahrain said Friday that the United Kingdom would help defend the country with its fighter jets. Ambassador Alastair Long’s announcement came the day after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was sending four more Royal Air Force Typhoon fighters to Qatar following requests from allies for further help.

In Israel, the sound of explosions could be heard in Tel Aviv early Friday morning after a warning about missiles incoming from Iran, as air defense systems worked to intercept the barrage.

Trump again urges Iranians to ‘take back’ their country

In brief remarks at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump again urged the Iranian people to “help take back your country.” This time he promised the U.S. would grant them “immunity” amid the war and ongoing dangers under the current Iranian regime.

“So you’ll be perfectly safe with total immunity,” Trump said, without giving any details about what that meant. “Or you’ll face absolutely guaranteed death.”

Cooper and Hegseth cautioned Iranians not to take to the streets while the conflict is still raging, however.

In an interview with the news website Axios, Trump said he should be involved in choosing Iran’s new supreme leader to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening strikes of the war. Trump spoke dismissively of Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, being a front-runner to replace his father, calling him “a lightweight.”

“We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran,” Trump said.

Iranian officials meet to discuss new leadership

Iranian state television reported Friday that a leadership council had started discussing how to convene the country’s Assembly of Experts, which will select the new supreme leader.

The leadership council includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi and cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.

The statement provided no timeline on the selection of the supreme leader, nor information on whether the Assembly of Experts would meet in person or remotely for the vote.

Buildings associated with the Assembly of Experts, a 88-member clerical panel, have been attacked during the Israeli-U.S. airstrike campaign.

Israel hits Lebanon with multiple airstrikes around Beirut

Israel carried out at least 11 airstrikes late Thursday and early Friday, targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut. Fires broke out near a gas station.

The Israeli army issued a warning Thursday evening, urging residents to “save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately.” Two hospitals evacuated patients and staff. No casualties were immediately reported.

Türk, the U.N. human rights chief, said he was “extremely concerned” about the situation, particularly what he described as “blanket, massive displacement orders” by Israel to civilians in Lebanon.

The Lebanese health ministry said the death toll has risen to 123 since the resurgence of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, which struck Israel in the opening days of the war.

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam slammed both Israel and Hezbollah, saying the Lebanese state and people “did not choose this war.”

Bynum reported from Savannah, Georgia, Rising from Bangkok and Abou AlJoud from Beirut, Lebanon. Geir Moulson in Berlin and Bassem Mroue in Beirut contributed to this report.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/06/us-israel-iran-lebanon-strikes/ 

Posted in News

Amid statewide teacher shortage, Hinsdale schools ‘have been very fortunate’

The recently-released eighth-annual Illinois Education Association report that polls Illinois residents’ views on all aspects of public school found that 84% of the public say they are very worried about a shortage of teachers.

However, locally in Hinsdale-Clarendon Hills Elementary District 181, finding and keeping teachers has not been an issue.

Gina Herrmann, assistant superintendent of Human Resources in District 181, said her district has not experienced the level of impact that many others in the state have reported.

“We have been very fortunate in our district,” she said. “In addition to attracting strong candidate pools, we also maintain a very high teacher retention rate, which speaks to the positive culture, collaborative environment and professional support systems we have in place.”

Hermann said District 181 receives hundreds of applications for elementary classroom teaching positions and continues to receive a strong pool of candidates across content areas at its middle schools.

In District 181, Hermann said, a proactive and relationship-driven approach to recruiting outstanding educators is taken.

“We maintain strong university partnerships, invest in growing talent from within, and ensure our hiring processes uphold high standards while removing unnecessary barriers,” she said. “Just as importantly, we work hard to create a culture where teachers feel supported, valued, and able to grow professionally. When we consistently elevate and respect the profession, talented individuals are drawn to teaching as the meaningful and rewarding career that it truly is.”

As for teacher pay and benefits in the district, “We regularly review salary data to ensure our compensation remains competitive with area and comparable school districts,” she said.

Still, Hermann said she’s not surprised that there are families in Illinois worried about the teacher shortage.

“Statewide data and media coverage over the past several years have highlighted very real staffing challenges in many districts, particularly in specialized and hard-to-fill positions,” she said.

“Teachers today are navigating higher academic standards, increased attention to students’ social and emotional needs, and expanding compliance and accountability requirements. As a result, the complexity and demands of the profession have intensified.”

Even with challenges in many areas, Hermann said she believes the teacher shortage can get better.

“I do believe this can improve, but it requires intentional action,” she said. “We must consistently respect and celebrate our teachers. That means valuing their expertise, ensuring they have strong leadership support, providing meaningful professional growth opportunities, and offering competitive compensation.”

Chuck Fieldman is a freelance reporter for Pioneer Press. 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/06/hinsdale-no-teacher-shortage/ 

Posted in News

At 76, Dusty Baker is managing again. He’s leading Nicaragua in the World Baseball Classic.

MIAMI — Dusty Baker is going to be honored as a member of the Cactus League Hall of Fame on March 14, and he’s appreciative of the recognition.

He’s just hoping that he doesn’t have to attend.

The 76-year-old Baker is managing Nicaragua in the World Baseball Classic, and his team has four guaranteed games on the schedule in Miami — Friday vs. the Dominican Republic, Saturday vs. Netherlands, Sunday vs. Israel and Monday vs. Venezuela.

17 Cubs and White Sox players and prospects are competing in the World Baseball Classic: Here’s what to know

A couple of wins, and the Cactus League might have to wait.

“I’ve got an open ticket,” Baker said. “I hope I don’t have to go home too soon. I hope I’m here for a while.”

Baker turned down a chance to manage in the WBC in 2023, opting instead to keep his focus solely on the Houston Astros and what at that time was their quest to win back-to-back World Series titles after he managed them to a championship in 2022. The Astros wound up losing Game 7 of the AL Championship Series in 2023, and Baker retired not long afterward.

He has remained in the game, working with the San Francisco Giants — a franchise that he both played for and then managed — as an advisor. And when Nicaragua called about this job, Baker had no reason to pass it up.

“He’s a legend in the game,” said Nicaragua infielder Mark Vientos, who plays for the New York Mets. “Every time he speaks, I’m all ears. My eyes are wide open. I grew up watching him. I grew up seeing him coach, seeing highlights of him play. It’s awesome to be around him. It’s awesome to hear the funny stories he’s got and all the wisdom he has. I’m honored to be around him.”

Baker will go back to Arizona, eventually. The Giants have spring training there and his son Darren — who went viral as a 3-year-old batboy for the Giants, needing to get scooped up at home plate by J.T. Snow during the 2002 World Series — is in camp in Arizona with the Chicago White Sox.

“When you’re around young people, it keeps you young,” said Baker, a three-time manager of the year. “I’ve got a son who’s 27, a couple grandsons. I like being around young people, and I love being in this uniform and playing a game.”

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/06/dusty-baker-world-baseball-classic/ 

Posted in News

Chicago White Sox camp takeaways, including Drew Thorpe taking a positive step in Tommy John recovery

GLENDALE, Ariz. — Chicago White Sox pitcher Drew Thorpe took a positive step in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, throwing 20 pitches Tuesday during his first bullpen session of the spring.

“It’s been a long time — feels like I almost forgot how to pitch,” Thorpe joked Thursday at Camelback Ranch. “It was very good.”

Thorpe has another bullpen session scheduled for Friday. “Just keep stacking good days,” the right-hander said.

17 Cubs and White Sox players and prospects are competing in the World Baseball Classic: Here’s what to know

Thorpe underwent Tommy John surgery last spring, missing the entire 2025 season. The return process slowed a little bit earlier this spring after hitting some speed bumps. Thorpe described Tuesday as a “good sign.”

“Feeling good,” he said. “Now it’s just feeling normal TJ-rehab stuff versus anything extra. Bullpen was good on Tuesday, just continue to build on that.

“I think looking at the next day was more beneficial, just seeing where I was at. (Wednesday), pretty sore. Which is to be expected. But yeah, I feel a lot better (Thursday) than I did (Wednesday).”

Thorpe has kept in mind that when it comes to recovering from Tommy John surgery, “everybody’s different, that’s kind of what you learn going through the process.

“Have ups and downs throughout the whole thing,” he added. “I don’t think (the slow down earlier in camp) set me back too much, maybe a couple of weeks here and there, we can make it up throughout the year.”

Thorpe, Ky Bush and Prelander Berroa are among the pitchers making their way back from the same surgery. They are hoping at some point to be in a position to aid the Sox.

“It was nice having them all around the same timetable, just being able to rehab with all those guys,” Thorpe said. “And being able to go through it, whatever they were feeling. Just hoping we can all get back healthy.”

Here are three more observations from Sox camp.

1. Shane Smith received instant feedback in an intrasquad game.

White Sox starter Shane Smith smiles during a spring training workout at Camelback Ranch on Feb. 18, 2026, in Glendale, Ariz. (Eileen T. Meslar/Chicago Tribune)

Smith pitched three innings during an intrasquad game on the backfields Thursday at Camelback Ranch.

Afterward, he made a trip to the other dugout for instant feedback of the outing.

“It’s nice being able to talk to guys after,” Smith said. “I just ran over to that dugout and tried to get a good feel for were they picking anything up, what do you see for spin. Is it predictable? Whatever it is.

“It’s one thing to look at the Trackman and the numbers, is stuff moving right. But what are guys seeing in real time? Did they think something was coming in, but it actually went down or whatever it is.”

As he continues to build up, Smith wants to keep feeling good and make sure he finds a rhythm during each outing.

“Sometimes it’s different, sometimes it’s the same — at the end of the day, you’re just trying to get a guy out,” Smith said.

2. Sean Burke bounced back after a rough start.

Burke surrendered four runs in the first inning Thursday against the Cleveland Guardians, including a two-run homer to CJ Kayfus.

He bounced back to retire seven of the final eight batters he faced.

Photos: An inside look at Chicago White Sox spring training

“We talked in between innings, stay on that game plan of trying to attack these guys,” Burke said. “Maybe a year ago, or maybe in the middle of season last year if that happens to me in the first inning, I try to maybe nibble or not stay in the heart of the zone.

“Tonight, I was super competitive, trying to attack these guys still over the plate and things started going my way later in the game.”

Burke allowed the four runs on five hits with three strikeouts and no walks in three innings during the 12-3 loss at Camelback Ranch.

Erick Fedde, another option for the rotation, followed with three scoreless innings. Fedde allowed one hit and struck out one.

Prospect Hagen Smith pitched the ninth inning, and allowed one run on two hits with two strikeouts in his first appearance of the spring.

3. Chris Murphy had ‘everything working’ in his most recent appearance.

Murphy had one of those outings Tuesday in which everything was working. The left-hander allowed one hit, struck out four and walked one in three scoreless innings against the San Diego Padres.

“Everything went really well that outing,” Murphy told the Tribune on Thursday.

Murphy recalled a conversation he had with coaches that proved to be helpful.

Related Articles


Column: Questions about the WBC, the Chicago Bears’ trade of DJ Moore and other pressing issues


Can a loaded US roster dethrone Japan at the World Baseball Classic?


‘They want to get better’: Chicago White Sox pitching coach Zach Bove offers camp evaluations of ‘hungry’ staff


17 Cubs and White Sox players and prospects are competing in the World Baseball Classic: Here’s what to know


Column: Jason Benetti’s new gig as voice of ‘Sunday Night Baseball’ yet another blemish for Chicago White Sox

“I had told (pitching coach Zach) Bove and (assistant pitching coach) Bobby (Hearn) and (bullpen coach Matt) Wise after my last outing, ‘Hey, I’m done working on stuff. I’m just going to go out and pitch the way I know how to pitch. Go out and compete and show you what I can do that way,’” Murphy said.

It was a different approach from the first couple of appearances.

“(I was) beating up on myself, like pitching to (Dodgers catcher) Will Smith (in the Feb. 26 game) with weaknesses of mine instead of strengths of mine,” Murphy said. “‘OK, that’s dumb pitching. I’m done trying new things. Let’s go to what I know works,’ and that was that outing there.”

Murphy has allowed three runs on nine hits with eight strikeouts and two walks in eight innings during his three outings (one start). Venable said Murphy has been “outstanding.”

“Really good fastball,” Venable said Thursday. “Early on, we saw some of the breaking stuff in zone getting hit. Really the only hits he’s giving up is soft in zone stuff. Thought his last outing, he had everything working, with the fastball and offspeed stuff.

“Really impressed with him and all his pitches. He’s looked really good.”

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/06/chicago-white-sox-drew-thorpe-bullpen-session/ 

Posted in News

Column: Questions about the WBC, the Chicago Bears’ trade of DJ Moore and other pressing issues

Questions to ponder while tossing out campaign flyers, cleaning out the garage and waiting for the madness of March to begin.

Is it un-American to root against Team USA in the World Baseball Classic?

Absolutely not. This is not the Olympics, at which national pride is at stake. It’s a staged exhibition tournament invented solely to make money for MLB and its partners. The league sent out a press release Wednesday boasting of having 150 business partners, including nearly 70 companies signed on as corporate partners.

17 Cubs and White Sox players and prospects are competing in the World Baseball Classic: Here’s what to know

Sure, it’ll be fun to watch major-leaguers play for their home country or one of their parents’ home country. But rooting for Team USA is basically akin to pulling for the Los Angeles Dodgers. If you prefer an underdog, it’s OK to pick another team without feeling guilty about being unpatriotic.

By the way, Americans who like an underdog and cheering on other Americans can also root for Puerto Rico, a team composed of U.S. citizens from, uh, Puerto Rico. Didn’t Bad Bunny teach us anything at the Super Bowl?

How many more top draft picks do the Chicago Blackhawks need to stockpile to be a wild-card contender?

General manager Ryan Davidson speaks Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025, as the Blackhawks begin training camp at Fifth Third Arena. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)

General manager Kyle Davidson loves getting high draft picks at the trade deadline, as evidenced by the two recent deals with the Edmonton Oilers that netted a 2027 first-round pick and a second-rounder in 2028 in exchange for Connor Murphy, Jason Dickinson and Colton Dach. They also took on the contract of left winger Andrew Mangiapane in the Dickinson-Dach deal to get the first-rounder.

They now have five first-round picks and six second-rounders in the next three drafts, so at least the 2030s are looking brighter. “It’s motivating that this is the last year we’re in a spot where we’re moving guys that help us,” Connor Bedard said Thursday. “We moved a lot of guys that helped us win games. That’s a (crappy) feeling. Just try to not let that happen.”

Is that wishful thinking? At some point Davidson is going to need to acquire players who can help fast-forward the rebuild, instead of draft picks who might be helpful five years from now. How long can he keep kicking the can down the road?

Does winning Cactus League games mean more to the White Sox than any other team?

White Sox starter Davis Martin celebrates with catcher Edgar Quero after throwing in the bullpen during spring training at Camelback Ranch on Feb. 18, 2026, in Glendale, Ariz. (Eileen T. Meslar/Chicago Tribune)

The Sox were 7-6 entering Thursday night’s game against the Cleveland Guardians after starting 3-0. The games are meaningless, but after three straight 100-plus loss seasons, the players need a reminder of what it’s like to win.

“I’d much rather be on this side of the situation than if we were (losing) and everyone’s going, ‘What’s going on?’” starter Davis Martin told me last week at Camelback Ranch in Glendale, Ariz. “Winning is always important. We’re all competitors here, from guy one in camp to the last guy who was invited. We’re competing at a high level, and that doesn’t start on March 26. That starts now.”

The answer, it appears, is “absolutely.”

Are the Bears better off without DJ Moore?

Everyone seems to be OK with the Bears shedding Moore in a trade with the Buffalo Bills and going with the young trio of Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland as Caleb Williams’s main targets. Moore’s production obviously dipped, and his contract was oversized for his contributions, so perhaps it was time for him to go.

But Odunze still hasn’t proved he can avoid costly drops or stay healthy, and while Burden is talented he’s still a work in progress. So unless they replace Moore with another veteran receiver or use the savings to sign Maxx Crosby, I’m not sold that this was the right move.

Either way, Moore was a pleasure to watch in his three seasons and will be a great addition to quarterback Josh Allen in Buffalo.

Is Jameson Taillon’s poor spring a concern for the Cubs?

Jameson Taillon warms up with other Cubs pitchers during the first day of full-squad workout at spring training on Feb. 16, 2026, at Sloan Park in Mesa, Ariz. (Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune)

Taillon will pitch for Team Canada in the WBC, which means a brief reprieve from the Cactus League … barring a trip by Canada to the semifinals in Miami. In his three starts this spring, Taillon has allowed 13 runs in six innings while serving up six home runs.

It’s not a complete surprise to see him yield home runs in bunches. He gave up 22 in 17 starts in the first half of last year, then only two in his final six starts in the second half, posting a 1.57 ERA over that stretch. Like many veterans, he’s likely just a slow starter working things out.

The Cubs are probably more concerned with Shota Imanaga, who was passed over in Game 5 of the National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers because of his penchant for giving up home runs. Imanaga has given up three in 2 2/3 innings this spring.

With almost three weeks left of spring training, there’s no need to panic. But check back after St. Patrick’s Day, just in case.

Does Illinois have a hometown advantage in the upcoming Big Ten Tournament at the United Center?

Illinois coach Brad Underwood talks to players during a timeout against Michigan at State Farm Center on Feb. 27, 2026, in Champaign. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)

Coach Brad Underwood has perhaps his most talented team ever, and the Illini led the nation in offensive rating (131.8) on Thursday, according to KenPom. They have four players who can score 20 or more points on any given night in Keaton Wagler, Andrej Stojaković, David Mirković and Kylan Boswell, a dependable big man in Tomislav Ivišić and a dangerous 3-point threat in Jake Davis.

With a win in their regular-season finale Sunday at Maryland, they’ll clinch no worse than a No. 4 seed, which means a bye until the quarterfinal round. Illini fans came out to the U.C. in droves in November to see them play Alabama in a 90-86 loss. That was before anyone knew Wagler would become one of the nation’s top players.

Northwestern bills itself as “Chicago’s hometown team,” but basketball-wise, the city belongs to the Illini.

Is it worth staying up late to watch the Bulls on their West Coast trip?

Not unless you want to see the big stars on the Los Angeles Lakers or Golden State Warriors. The Bulls began the trip Thursday night in Phoenix ranked ninth in the draft-lottery standings, even after losing 12 of 13 games in their tankathon.

Last year they drafted No. 12 after losing in the play-in round. Sometimes you can’t win for losing.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/06/wbc-chicago-blackhawks-bears-dj-moore/ 

Posted in News

Can a loaded US roster dethrone Japan at the World Baseball Classic?

Aaron Judge is trading pinstripes for a plain jersey with red, white and blue letters.

“Getting the chance to wear that across my chest is going to be pretty powerful,” the U.S. and New York Yankees captain said of the World Baseball Classic. “I think a lot of people have a lot of pride for their country.”

After losing 3-2 in the 2023 final when Japan’s Shohei Ohtani ended the game by striking out Mike Trout, the U.S. will be trying for its first championship since 2017 when 20 nations compete for the sixth championship starting Thursday.

Japan’s Shohei Ohtani reacts during the exhibition game against the Orix Buffaloes prior to the Pool C games at the World Baseball Classic on March 2, 2026 in Osaka, Japan. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

Australia plays Taiwan at the Tokyo Dome in the opener, and action starts the next day in Houston, Miami and San Juan, Puerto Rico. The final again will be in Miami on March 17.

A much-improved pitching staff includes Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal and Mason Miller, and the batting order likely will include Judge, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber and Bobby Witt Jr.

Having watched the last two tournaments, Skenes has hoped to receive an invite from U.S. manager Mark DeRosa.

“When DeRo called, it was like, just, ‘Yeah, I’m in. You don’t need to talk me into this or anything,’” said Skenes, who played two seasons at Air Force Academy before transferring to LSU. “It was a quick yes.”

Players have been in contact with each other long before reporting this week.

“The group chat’s been firing away for the last couple of months,” Philadelphia’s Bryce Harper said.

Rotation boost

Logan Webb is slated to start the Americans’ Friday opener against Brazil in Houston, followed by Skubal on Saturday against Britain, Skenes vs. Mexico on Monday and top Mets prospect Nolan McLean against Italy on March 10.

The foursome has a combined 19.8 Baseball Reference WAR last season. The Americans’ four starters in 2023, Adam Wainwright, Nick Martinez, Lance Lynn and Merrill Kelly, combined for a 7.8 the previous season.

17 Cubs and White Sox players and prospects are competing in the World Baseball Classic: Here’s what to know

Skubal intends to make one start, then return to the Tigers.

A pitcher is limited to 65 pitches in first-round games, 80 in a quarterfinal and 95 in a semifinal or final. If a player throws more than 50 pitches in an outing, he can’t pitch for the next four days. If he throws more than 30, he can’t pitch the next day. No one may pitch three days in a row.

“There are obviously guardrails for the tournament to begin with, pitch-count wise, but there’s also guardrails for guys having to throw on certain days to get ready for their team’s opening day,” U.S. manager Mark DeRosa said.

Trying to do it again

Japan’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto participates in their practice session in Tokyo on March 4, 2026, ahead of their World Baseball Classic games. (AP Photo/Hiro Komae)

Japan is trying to win its fourth title and become only the second repeat champion after the 2006 and 2009 Samurai Warriors.

Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have some experience at consecutive titles after helping last year’s Los Angeles Dodgers become the first repeat World Series champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees won three in a row.

“Going back to back, that is our only goal,” Yamamoto said through a translator.

Yamamoto, the World Series MVP, is scheduled to start Japan’s opener against Taiwan on Friday. Los Angeles is allowing him to pitch for Japan after he threw 211 innings last year, including the postseason.

“The Dodgers understand how big the WBC tournament is, big in Japan,” he said. “The Dodgers and the WBC, they both are very important to me equally.”

Japan’s pitching staff is missing Ohtani, who won’t take the mound, along with Roki Sasaki, who remained at Dodgers camp following an injury-interrupted rookie season, and Yu Darvish, sidelined following elbow surgery.

Star-filled Dominican roster

Seeking its first title since its only previous win in 2013, the Dominican Republic has a roster that includes six players who finished among the top 10 in MVP voting last year: Junior Caminero, Jeremy Peña. Geraldo Perdomo, Julio Rodríguez, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado and Ketel Marte also are on a roster that includes pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Cristopher Sánchez.

“It can be a headache also because you have so much talent. You wish that you can make everybody happy,” Dominican manager Albert Pujols said. ”The Dominican Republic has been blessed with so many talent.”

Venezuela, with the Dominicans in Group D, is led by Ronald Acuña Jr., Jackson Chourio, Eugenio Suárez and William and Willson Contreras.

Playing through politics, war

Judge says there’s significance representing the U.S. in a tournament starting days after the U.S. and Israel launched a Middle East war with joint strikes on Iran. Skenes and reliever Griffin Jax played college ball at Air Force.

“There are individuals out there that have sacrificed everything for this country to allow me to have my wife safe at home, my daughter safe at home and I get a chance to come out here and play a kids’ game,” Judge said.

Israel is also in this year’s tournament. Outfielder Assaf Lowengart is the only player on the roster born in the country.

Venezuela, with what appears to be among the strongest rosters, plays in Miami two months after the U.S. military captured former Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro. Following his ouster, Venezuela elevated the autocrat’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, to serve as acting president.

Eight members of Cuba’s delegation were denied U.S. visas, including a pitching coach and federation executives, the Cuban Baseball and Softball Federation said.

Hot prospect

Travis Bazzana makes his Australia national team debut in the tournament opener after being selected first overall by Cleveland in 2024 amateur draft.

While playing for Australia’s under-18 team in 2024, Bazzana wrote a note on his phone dreaming of being Australia’s second baseman and leadoff hitter at this year’s WBC.

“Growing up, I always looked ahead and kind of had a vision of things I wanted to do in this game, and this was a big part of it,” he said Wednesday. “I was always writing about it and thinking about it.”

Bazzana has an .801 OPS in 111 minor league games and is expected to start the season at Triple-A.

Back after injury

Edwin Díaz is on Puerto Rico’s roster after tearing the patellar tendon in his right knee during the 2023 WBC.

Díaz missed the 2023 season with the New York Mets because of the injury, sustained during an on-field celebration with teammates following a 5-2 group-stage win over the Dominican Republic that clinched a quarterfinal berth.

Several star players will be missing from this year’s tournament due to insurance issues, including Puerto Rico’s Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa and Venezuela’s Jose Altuve.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/06/world-baseball-classic-us-japan/ 

Posted in News

Berkshire CEO Greg Abel Commits Salary To Buying Company Stock

Berkshire CEO Greg Abel Commits Salary To Buying Company Stock

Greg Abel said he plans to put all of his after-tax compensation into shares of Berkshire Hathaway for as long as he runs the company, according to Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg.

He recently followed through by buying about $15.3 million of Berkshire stock, according to a regulatory filing. Abel said repeating the purchase each year after the company reports results could total “hundreds of millions” of dollars over time.

“Absolute alignment with our shareholders, our partners, our owners is critical,” Abel said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. “I already have some shares, but the goal was to continue to demonstrate alignment with them.”

Bloomberg writes that the conglomerate also restarted its share repurchase program on Wednesday after leadership concluded the company’s “intrinsic value” exceeded its trading price. Following the announcement, the stock rose as much as 2% in early trading in New York on Thursday.

Earlier in the week, Berkshire shares declined after the firm reported fourth-quarter results showing operating profit fell 30%, largely due to a 54% drop in insurance underwriting income.

Investors had been looking for clues on Abel’s buyback strategy, particularly since Berkshire had gone six consecutive quarters without repurchasing shares. In his first annual shareholder letter last week, Abel reiterated the company’s long-standing approach to returning capital and signaled that a dividend remains unlikely.

“We’ve maintained that we will retain a dollar if we see the opportunity to create more than a dollar for our shareholders —and that’s been the test,” Abel said. “So if we didn’t meet that test, we’d do a dividend.”

Abel added that repurchasing stock won’t prevent Berkshire from deploying its roughly $373 billion cash reserve elsewhere.

“There’s also ‘Do we acquire stock?’ And when we’re looking at companies: ‘Do we acquire whole companies also?’ And then there’s the ‘Do we acquire equities?’” Abel said. “Each of those, with the amount of capital we have, can be done independently. So when we’re purchasing our shares, it’s not taking away from any of the other decisions.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2026 – 07:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/berkshire-ceo-greg-abel-commits-salary-buying-company-stock 

Posted in News

February Payrolls Preview: “For This Print, The Stronger The Better”

February Payrolls Preview: “For This Print, The Stronger The Better”

The February jobs report is expected to show 55k jobs added to the US economy in the month, a sharp drop from 130k in January but slightly above the Fed’s 50k breakeven estimate. Private payrolls are expected to rise by 60k versus the prior 172k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%, while wages are seen rising 0.3% M/M and 3.7% Y/Y. According toi Newsquawk, the data will be used to gauge Fed rate cut expectations, while some on the FOMC, including Waller, will use it to decide whether to vote for a rate cut or hold in March, although the Fed is expected to keep rates on hold barring any drastic change in the current situation or outlook.

Recent proxies have been mixed: the ADP report was strong, while the ISM PMI employment sub-components showed improvement in both manufacturing and services, though manufacturing remained in contractionary territory. Initial jobless claims for the reference week were steady over comparable periods, while continuing claims rose slightly. The Conference Board reported a modest improvement in labor market perceptions. The Chicago Fed unemployment model expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%.Earlier today, RevelioLabs reported 16.7k jobs lost in February versus a 13.3k gain in January. Challenger layoffs fell notably.

Expectations:

Headline NFP is expected to show 55k jobs added in February, cooling from Januaryʼs 130k increase. Analyst forecasts range between -9k and +113k.

Private payrolls are expected to rise by 65k from the prior 172k, with forecasts ranging between +25k and +110k.
The Fedʼs current estimate of the breakeven rate is around 50k.
Goldman estimates payrolls rose by 45k in February, below consensus. On the negative side, the bank expects a 31k drag from newly striking workers and a modest headwind from poor winter weather after it likely boosted January payroll growth. The bank expects unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 5k decline in federal government payrolls that is offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. 

The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, with the range of forecasts between 4.2-4.4%.
Wages are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, easing from the prior 0.4%, with forecasts ranging between 0.1-0.4%.
Average earnings growth Y/Y is seen at 3.7%, matching the prior rate, with forecasts between 3.5-3.7%.

Proxies:

The February ADP data showed jobs rising by 63k, beating expectations of 50k and up from the prior 11k, which was revised down from 22k. The 63k print is the highest since November 2025.
In the ISM PMI reports, manufacturing employment edged up to 48.8 from 48.1, while 45% of respondents still said managing headcount rather than hiring was the norm at their companies. The services employment PMI rose to 51.8 from 50.3. Respondent comments included: “we are expecting activity to increase from 2026 to 2030, so we are hiring” and “ICE activity has caused some staff to not come into work.” There is also growing focus on AI-related job cuts, following Blockʼs decision to lay off 40% of its staff, around 4,000 people, raising concerns over how quickly companies may turn to AI instead of human employees. Some view this decision as premature, but it bears monitoring in the months and years ahead to see whether the pace of AI-driven replacement accelerates.
The Chicago Fedʼs February labor market indicators are tracking unemployment at 4.27%, little changed from 4.28% into the January jobs report.
Weekly initial jobless claims were steady over the comparable survey periods (208k versus 210k), while continuing claims rose slightly (1.833mln versus 1.819mln).
The Conference Board reported a modest improvement in labor market perceptions, with the labor market differential increasing; some 28.0% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful”, up from 25.8% in January. Meanwhile, 20.6% said jobs were “hard to get”, up from 19.0%.
RevelioLabs reported 16.7k jobs lost in February, while Challenger layoffs eased to 48k from 108k. January

Iran: Given recent developments in the Middle East, it is still too early to assess the impact on the US economy, though it could have implications for prices and, by extension, monetary policy. The Fed generally prefers to look through one-off energy-related price increases. However, if the war is prolonged and disruption persists in the Strait of Hormuz, there is a risk this could delay the resumption of rate cuts, which are currently expected in the summer. A sharp deterioration in the labor market would likely offset these concerns, but the situation keeps the Fed in a difficult position. The US has offered to assist shippers and tankers transiting the Strait by paying for insurance and providing US Navy escorts. This is a new announcement and its effectiveness remains to be seen, but if successful it could help shield the global economy by keeping supply chains and oil flows open. Market-based inflation expectations remain anchored. As of 4th March, the 5-year breakeven rate stood at 2.46%, up from 2.40% on 27th February, while the 10-year rate is at 2.29% versus 2.25% at the end of last-week

Arguing for a weaker-than-expected report:

Strikes. The BLS’s strike report noted that newly striking workers will exert a 31kdrag on February job growth.
Government hiring. Goldman expects unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 5k decline in federal government payrolls offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. The bank expects the ongoing federal government hiring freeze to continue to weigh on federal government payrolls.
Winter weather. Winter storm Fern likely formed too late to meaningfully impact January job growth—the impact of weather actually likely boosted job growth in January after greater-than-usual snowfall likely weighed on December job growth—but lingering snow coverage and colder-than-usual weather in the February reference period are likely to exert a modest drag on job growth in weather-sensitive industries. We assume a 5k decline in construction employment

Arguing for a stronger-than-expected report:

Layoffs. Initial jobless claims increased to 220k on average in the February payroll month from 206k in January but remained low. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas declined by 60k (or 72% year-over-year) in February to 48k (NSA), following a 72k increase in January.

Mixed/neutral factors:

Employer surveys. The Goldman manufacturing (-0.4pt to 48.6) and services (-0.4pt to 49.1) survey employment component trackers both edged lower in February and remained in contractionary territory. However, the signal from survey data has been less useful—and at times misleading—during the post-pandemic period and thus has little bearing on our payrolls forecast.
Big data. Alternative measures of employment growth were mixed in February: the indicators we track averaged +58k.

Updated Population Controls: Tomorrow’s update will re-anchor the survey’s population estimate to the newly released Census population estimate, resulting in one-time adjustments to the levels of the labor force, employment, and other series in February. The household survey has likely overstated population and employment growth over the last year because the survey’s population assumptions quickly became outdated as immigration continued to fall sharply. We estimate that this will result in downward adjustments to the labor force and employment of 0.3-0.4mn (Chart below, left panel). The annual update will also likely have a tiny composition effect on ratios like the unemployment rate. That because recent immigrants are more likely to be young Hispanics and young Asians, who tend to have higher labor force participation and unemployment rates than the population average. As a result, a disproportionate decline in the population size of these groups will lower these rates. However, because the magnitude of the revision is relatively small, the participation rate and employment-population ratio will decline by only 1-2bp and the unemployment rate to be essentially unchanged (Chart below, right panel).

Fed: The Fed is currently on hold and views among FOMC participants remain mixed, with some officials objecting to further rate cuts while others would prefer the easing to continue. Overall, the outlook largely depends on incoming data and how far the Fed is from both sides of its mandate. The labor market has stabilized in recent months, while inflation remains above target, largely supporting the case for rates to remain at current levels. This report will be key in assessing whether Januaryʼs labor market strength is sustained and whether the view that the labor market has stabilized still holds. Large downward revisions or a notably weak report would boost dovish rate expectations and strengthen the case among doves for cuts to resume sooner rather than later. Fed Governor Waller, a dovish dissenter, said he would support a cut in March if Januaryʼs labour market strength is revised away or fades, though it may be appropriate to hold if downside labour market risks have diminished. Governor Miran, an uber dove, wants four 25bps cuts this year, sooner rather than later. New York Fed President Williams has said rate cuts will continue if inflation ebbs. Goolsbee (non-voter this year) is optimistic about more cuts this year but wants clear evidence inflation is returning to target first, specifically warning about persistently high core services inflation.The Fedʼs median dot plot pencils in one rate cut in 2026, taking the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.25-3.50% by year-end, though the Summary of Economic Projections will be updated at the next Fed decision on March 18th.

Market Reaction: 

For options expiring on March 6, the market is pricing +/-1.14% move, as of market close on March.

JPM Market Intel: According to the JPM trading desk, the range of SPX outcomes is skewed lower given the uncertainty around the US / Iran war. The heightened oil market and general market vol is not bleeding into the NFP print, which may be muted given the expectations for a weaker Retail Sales number. For this print, the stronger the better given the increase in inflation expectations due to energy prices. A weaker number will increase rate cut expectations, but the risk is stagflation in the near-term given the expected increase in inflation. If the US / Iran war were to resolve overnight, the US economy is on solid footing with positive growth momentum, evidenced by the ISM prints. JPM remains of the view that reduced uncertainty on taxes and tariff rates that continue to trend lower benefits the economy and is likely to translate into improved hiring. If that comes to fruition then consumer will continue to drive the economy to above-trend growth, benefiting earnings and risk assets. The trade off is zero rate cuts this year.

Below JPM’s trademark market reaction matrix:

Above 105k. SPX is up 50bp – 1.25%: odds 5%
Between 75k – 105k. SPX is flat to up 75bp: odds 25%
Between 45k – 75k. SPX loses 50bp to gains 50bp: odds 40%
Between 15k – 45.  SPX loses 1% to gains 25bp: odds 25%
Below 15k. SPX is down 0.5% to 1.5%: odds 5%

Finally, some thoughts from traders around the Goldman trading desk:
    
Vickie Chang (Global Macro Research): Given the strikes in Iran and the shocks that has sent through markets, the payrolls print is not likely to be as important a focus as usual. Our economists’ forecasts for +45k on NFP and a tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.4% are not likely to awaken the recession tail or to lead the market to price faster cuts, especially given the uncertainty around the future path of energy prices. Absent a meaningful surprise, the market is likely to be driven more by the geopolitical situation and the distributional effects of those shocks. The risks around the jobs data look two-sided. On the one hand, the market is not priced for recession—our estimates suggest that the market is pricing growth at ~1.6% vs. our 4q-ahead forecast of 2.3%. So there is still room to worry about the growth picture on a properly bad report (and to pull forward cuts), though that would likely require a bigger jump in the unemployment rate. On the other hand, with the inflation and policy tightening shock that the market has priced in recent days, and amidst renewed worries that we could see higher energy prices and/or increased fiscal spending, a stronger report and lower unemployment rate could lead the market to worry about the cuts that it is still pricing through this year and next. But as with the robust services ISM, it could also provide reassurance that the economy was more resilient heading into the Iran shock. 

Brandon Brown (Rates Trading): While AI fears, credit worries, and uncertainty around the effects of the war in Iran have led investors to reach for interest rate hedges and duration, recent economic data has been solid. This has allowed the front end to price somewhat fewer cuts in 2026, while some of the cut premium has extended into 2027.  We think a 50k headline with a 4.4% unemployment rate is a report that will meet the market’s current pricing. Greater than 75k with a stable or falling unemployment rate will put pressure on the front end to cheapen further, while a 4.5% unemployment rate or below 25k headline will allow the front end to price more cut premium.  

Joe Clyne (Index Vol Trading): It’s been an extremely choppy and volatile market over the last few days, but the result of all that chop has been an index that remains extremely rangebound. Skew remains extremely steep and continues to realize extremely well. Sitting at 6880 in SPX cash, we expect to see the straddle for payrolls go out at roughly 80 bps. We don’t think that NFP will be a major driver for index level movement, unless you see a complete whiff and a market pullback. We think the main drivers remain geopolitical fears, AI disruption narratives, and (at an implied volatility level) crowded positioning in short downside and long topside. We think it is hard to have a strong break through all time highs in SPX with a lot of dealer positioning set up long gamma around the 7k level in SPX. For those who are looking for convex hedges, we think VIX optionality looks relatively cheap as compared to the fixed strike downside options. 

More available to pro subscribers

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/06/2026 – 06:44

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/february-payrolls-preview-print-stronger-better