Shortly after Israeli fighter jets struck Iran’s upstream oil and natural gas production assets for the first time in Operation Epic Fury, sending WTI futures to $98.5/bbl, the Trump administration appears to have pulled another emergency lever from JPMorgan’s six-option playbook we recently outlined: a 60-day Jones Act waiver that allows foreign-flagged ships to transport oil, gas, refined products, fertilizer, and related energy cargoes between US ports to boost domestic energy flows and ensure shipping capacity does not become a bottleneck.

Bloomberg reports that President Trump this morning authorized foreign-flagged tankers to transport crude and refined products, including gasoline and diesel, between US ports in a bid to move more Gulf Coast crude supplies to East Coast refineries, stabilize fuel availability, and keep shipping costs low.

“President Trump’s decision to issue a 60-day Jones Act waiver is just another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the U.S. military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement, quoted by Bloomberg.

Leavitt said, “The Administration remains committed to continuing to strengthen our critical supply chains.”

The US government can temporarily waive the Jones Act, but it cannot permanently lift it without Congress. The law requires that goods transported between US ports be carried on ships that are US-built, US-flagged, and US-crewed. However, under the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, the administration can grant temporary waivers if it determines they are necessary for national defense or in response to emergencies, typically through coordination between the US Department of Homeland Security and the US Department of War.

Such waivers have been issued several times, for example, after major hurricanes, to allow foreign tankers to move fuel between US ports. Combining a release from the SPR with a temporary waiver of the Jones Act would make the policy more effective. Without a waiver, limited US-flagged tanker capacity could constrain how quickly SPR barrels reach key refining centers or deficit regions.

The US last issued a Jones Act waiver in October 2022 for a tanker bound for Puerto Rico to deliver supplies following Hurricane Fiona. The Biden administration temporarily eased the law in 2021 for refiner Valero Energy Corp. following a cyberattack on a major East Coast fuel pipeline.

Bloomberg’s Javier Blas wrote on X, “The Jones Act should be rescinded for good.”

He added, “But waiving it now for 60 days would have little impact in the global oil market. The move speaks more about panic than well-thought-out policy. Similar to the US gov providing war insurance to tankers, it doesn’t solve the problem.”

The Jones Act should be rescinded for good.

But waiving it now for 60 days would have little impact in the global oil market. The move speaks more about panic than well-thought-out policy. Similar to the US gov providing war insurance to tankers, it doesn’t solve the problem.

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 18, 2026

Waiving the century-old maritime law is one of the six options JPMorgan’s head of commodity research, Natasha Kaneva, laid out to clients last week that the Trump administration could employ to combat triple-digit WTI crude prices. The first item on the list, the “historic” emergency release of SPR barrels, has likely already begun.

As we’ve noted, the SPR release is unlikely to materially cap oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored. Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars field (the world’s largest) marks a clear escalation, crossing into upstream energy infrastructure and deepening the risk to physical supply. With Iranian state media now calling for an “all-out economic war,” the South Pars attack may accelerate JPM’s six-option price-containment playbook, which may only suggest the Trump administration is following. 

Summary:

US crude stockpiles surged for the fourth consecutive week. The build takes inventories to the highest level since June 2024. The increase is likely to reinforce perceptions of ample supply in US markets, and though prices are significantly higher, WTI continues to lag global benchmark, Brent. 

US oil imports rose to the highest level since November 2024 driven by Gulf Coast imports which rose to the highest level since 2020. Flows to the US are not significantly disrupted despite the conflict in Iran. Flows from Venezuela nearly doubled on a weekly basis and are sitting at the highest level since 2024, the data shows.

Crude exports jumped by 1.5 million barrels a day to the highest level since September. That’s likely due to global markets drawing on US barrels as the conflict in Iran curtails Middle Eastern flows.

Oil prices are ripping higher this morning (rebounding aggressively of overnight lows) after US and Israel attacked upstream Iranian energy assets for the first time since the war (While the US struck oil export hub Kharg Island late last week, it limited that attack to military targets began).

Iran’s IRGC responded by publishing a list of Gulf energy sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar that “have become direct and legitimate targets” following the attack on South Pars, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.

“New attacks bring the attention back to the physical supply reality of the war – curtailments in energy tighten every day,” said Rabobank’s energy strategist Florence Schmit.

Trump has waived The Jones Act in the hopes of easing domestic prices.

Of course, geopolitical chaos is driving the price of oil more than domestic supply and demand. Nevertheless, overnight saw API report crude stocks rising while refined product inventories declined.

API

Crude +6.56mm

Cushing

Gasoline -4.56mm

Distillates -1.39mm

DOE

Crude +6.16mm

Cushing +944k

Gasoline -5.44mm – biggest draw since Oct

Distillates -2.53mm

The official data confirmed API’s reporting overnight with a big crude build and big refined product draws.

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 4th weekly build in US crude, pushing the total stockpile had surged to its highest since June 2024 headed into the war.

Source: Bloomberg

There was no draw or addition to the SPR last week, according to the official data (the fourth week of no change).

Exports for oil and fuels remain the key factors to watch to see if the US is backstopping global markets that have seen millions of barrels of supply curtailed by the conflict in Iran. On the fuels side, distillates and jet fuel will be the most important ones to keep an eye on given how prices for those two products have rocketed.

US crude production remains just off record highs.

WTI was trading just above $98 ahead of the official data (up dramatically from the $91 handle at the lows overnight) and held those gains after…

Finally, what really matters to the average American is the price of gas , which is rising at a record pace and looks set to keep rising…

…and even if we see some ‘end’ to all this Mideast chaos soon, the ramifications are set in motion and Memorial Day is not that far off

Recent polling makes one thing abundantly clear: the American people are firmly behind election integrity, and the SAVE America Act is right in line with where voters already are. 

According to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, support for the legislation clocks in at 71%, with strong backing from independents and even a sizable chunk of Democrats. That shouldn’t surprise anyone when you look at the specifics. Voter ID alone commands 81% support, with majorities across the political spectrum. Eight in ten Americans want states to clean non-citizens off voter rolls, and 75% support requiring proof of citizenship to vote. The poll also found that 85% of Americans agree that only U.S. citizens should be able to vote in U.S. elections, with overwhelming majorities of independents and Democrats.

A majority backs sharing voter rolls with the Department of Homeland Security, and 60% describe the SAVE America Act as a commonsense way to prevent fraud and secure elections.

Meanwhile, 58% of Americans acknowledge that voter fraud exists to some degree—something the political class has spent years trying to downplay.

There is nothing controversial about the law, but President Donald Trump may have doomed the bill when he moved to include stricter provisions for mail-in voting, such as eliminating no-excuse absentee ballots.

Trump laid out his demands in a Truth Social post earlier this month, and Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) will offer those changes as an amendment. 

Despite the overwhelming popularity of the law and its provisions, that shift collided head-on with Republicans who represent states where voting by mail is not just accepted, but embedded in the electoral system.

 Senate Republican sources began signaling that the votes were no longer there.

What had been a messaging win started to look like a procedural failure.

 “I think it’s problematic because in some of these states, 60 or 70 percent of people vote by mail,” a Republican senator told The Hill.

“You don’t want to disenfranchise them. Some states have really encouraged it over the years.”

Some of the concerns are legitimate.

In large, rural states, distances are not abstract talking points. They are measured in hours. Limiting absentee voting to narrow categories, such as illness or military service, would force many voters to travel significant distances to cast a ballot.

That includes a substantial number of Republican voters. That is why states like Montana and Utah have embraced absentee or all-mail systems. Utah, in particular, is a GOP stronghold built that has universal mail voting. The model works there. It has worked for years.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune faced a narrow path from the start. Advancing the bill required peeling off between seven and ten Democrats, a tall order even before the internal Republican divisions surfaced. After the changes, the math is close to impossible.

Then factor in that Republican officials in swing states have spent months encouraging vote-by-mail participation ahead of the midterms. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all factor into that strategy. Pulling back now introduces both logistical and political risk.

The core of the SAVE America Act is the citizenship requirement and Voter ID, both of which enjoy broad support.

Those provisions could have anchored a focused, disciplined bill and a unified GOP.

Trump’s push to overhaul absentee voting appears to have fractured the coalition. If that’s a sticking point for Trump, the SAVE America Act may be DOA.

Russia has lodged formal protest with Israel following its reported strikes near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear facility, angrily warning that the attacks directly endangered Russian personnel on the ground.

Israeli and Russian media have confirmed that Moscow issued a sharp condemnation and warnings of a red line after Israeli forces reportedly hit the grounds of the nuclear power plant where Russian specialists are stationed.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had also earlier provided independent verification that a missile struck the Bushehr complex on Tuesday evening, although no damage to the plant or injuries to staff were reported.

The Kremlin made clear to Israel that Russian nationals working in and around the facility were put at risk. Russian state media described the communication delivered to Israel via the Russian embassy “official demands” – which indicates a formal escalation in diplomatic pressure.

Even more provocative is that reports indicate Israeli strikes may have directly targeted residential quarters housing a Russian nuclear expert.

According to TASS: “Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev specified that the strike had hit the area near the office of the facility’s meteorological service, in close proximity to an operating power unit, at 3:11 p.m. GMT on March 17.” It was the first such known strike on an Iranian nuclear plant since Trump’s Operation Epic Fury began.

The Rosatom chief has indicated that several rounds of personnel evaluation from the Bushehr NPP are underway. There were many hundreds of Russian scientists, personnel, and technicians at the site. He indicated about 480 Russian nationals remain at the site.

“Attacks on nuclear facilities blatantly violate the key rules and principles of international security,” Likhachev emphasized.

Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has also urged “maximum restraint” during the conflict in order to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident. Just like war in Ukraine has threatened nuclear power sites, so has the Iran conflict raised concerns over nuclear fallout and radiation – in the instance of a strike leading to major accident.

After tumbling to end 2025, US Factory Orders were expected to rise very modestly in January and did so – up 0.1% MoM (as expected) with December’s 0.7% decline revised up to a 0.4% decline…

Source: Bloomberg

Core Factory orders (es Transports) rose 0.4% MoM – slightly better than expected – and December’s 0.4% MoM shift was revised up to a 0.6% MoM rise. This led core manufacturing orders to rise 1.39% YoY – the highest since July…

Source: Bloomberg

All the final data for Durable Goods orders were the same as the prliminary prints – unchanged MoM at the headline level.

Finally, today’s data also showed the value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, slipped lower by 0.1% MoM. Not a great sign for GDP (and with inflation on the rise, the s-word – stagflation – is starting to appear).

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Mainstream coverage of the ongoing Iran conflict has framed it as a potential turning point for the Trump administration, with endless speculation about political damage and shifting voter sentiment.

However, new data presented on CNN tells a far different story. The network’s own senior data analyst Harry Enten delivered a breakdown showing the war has produced virtually no movement in the president’s standing and scant public engagement overall.

Enten stated plainly: “What we are seeing right now is a president whose approval rating is steady.”

He added: “This has NOT been a big deal politically.”

Harry Enten devastates CNN viewers when he reveals Democrats have gained NO GROUND on Trump following the war with Iran.

“What we are seeing right now is a president whose approval rating is steady.”

“This has NOT been a big deal politically.”

“Americans who say they care a… pic.twitter.com/p2SVC10EBU

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) March 16, 2026

The numbers back it up. “Americans who say they care a lot about the Iranian situation — look at this — it’s just 45%. Just 45% of Americans say they care a lot about the situation going on in Iran,” Enten noted.

He continued: “So despite all the hubbub, right now we’re talking about less than a majority of Americans who say they care a lot about what’s going on in Iran right now.”

“But take a look at Google searches right now because it just sort of reinforces that point,” Enten further explained, adding “Americans’ Google searches for Iran. Look at this down 84% versus February 28th when of course the current war started in Iran.”

He noted the comparison to pop culture: “And if you look back on Sunday, you look back yesterday searches for the Academy Awards significantly higher are talking about three, four times as high as searches for Iran in the United States of America.”

Enten concluded the segment by saying: “I’m just not thinking that this is necessarily going to be the big political mover and shaker that you might expect.”

“The president’s overall approval rating is the same. It’s the same. It was 41% before the current war in Iran started, and it is 41% now,” he outlined.

“So despite again, all the hubbub, despite all the critics of the president of the United States, what we are seeing right now is a president whose approval rating is steady. And this has not been a big deal politically,” Enten concluded.

This assessment lands against the backdrop of earlier polling that painted the conflict in starkly different terms. A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey found overall support for strikes at just 27 percent, with only 7 percent backing among Democrats and 19 percent among independents. The survey suggested disapproval has climbed to 55 percent in some measures, driven partly by concerns over oil prices and civilian impacts.

Yet Enten’s data suggests that low baseline support has not translated into the kind of sustained political pressure many outlets anticipated. The president’s approval remains unchanged, and broad public interest appears limited.

Media framing has leaned heavily into expectations of fallout, particularly among Democratic critics hoping to erode Trump’s position. Enten’s numbers show no such shift has materialized.

Interest metrics tell their own story. With searches for the Academy Awards dwarfing those for the Iran situation, everyday Americans appear more focused on domestic matters and entertainment than on the foreign conflict dominating cable news cycles.

This disconnect highlights a recurring pattern: elite media narratives often assume foreign policy crises will dominate voter priorities, only to confront data showing otherwise. In this case, the conflict has failed to move the needle on presidential approval or generate majority concern.

The findings arrive as the operation continues without clear signs of broader domestic disruption to Trump’s standing. Public focus remains diffuse, with the war registering as one issue among many rather than the dominant force some predicted.

Americans continue to prioritize their immediate concerns over sustained engagement with developments abroad. The data underscores that media hype has not aligned with actual voter sentiment or search behavior.

This episode serves as another reminder that public attention is finite and often turns elsewhere, regardless of how loudly the narrative machine insists otherwise.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

President Donald Trump’s defamation lawsuit against CNN appears to be dead for the time being, as an appeals court denied his motion to rehear the case.

A three-judge panel had held in November that Trump hadn’t done enough to show that CNN compared him to Adolph Hitler when it described his claims about the 2020 election as “the Big Lie.” In a brief unsigned order on March 17, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit said that none of its judges asked for a vote to reconsider the case.

Trump told the circuit that the three-judge panel erred.

He wanted the full panel to consider whether his case should be decided by a jury instead of the court, and to reconsider whether the statements made by the network’s journalists allowed him to sue.

The order also ruled out the possibility of a rehearing by the original three-judge panel.

As Stacy Robinson reports for The Epoch Times, Trump sued CNN in 2022 after the network’s journalists repeatedly referred to his disputation of the 2020 election results as a “Big Lie.”

That terminology has historically been used in reference to Hitler’s Nazi regime, his propagandist Joseph Goebbels, and the push for a genocide of the Jewish people.

“CNN has acknowledged that the term the ‘Big Lie’ is a direct reference to Adolf Hitler and Nazism and uses the term in relation to the Plaintiff to create a false and incendiary association between the Plaintiff and Hitler,” Trump’s complaint alleged.

A district court found that CNN’s language was just “hyperbole,” and not meant literally. They dismissed the case.

In a unanimous decision, the 11th Circuit affirmed that dismissal. “To be clear, CNN has never explicitly claimed that Trump’s ‘actions and statements were designed to be, and actually were, variations of those [that] Hitler used to suppress and destroy populations,’” its decision read.

Trump wanted the full panel to determine if his case warranted a jury trial, and reconsider whether the CNN journalists’ language allowed him to sue.

CNN asked the court to toss out the case, saying the term “Big Lie” is “rhetorical hyperbole and does not refer to Hitler or Nazism.” Trump could not prove the network acted with “actual malice,” by publishing statements it knew were false, CNN argued.

“Actual malice is an extremely high evidentiary burden for any plaintiff to meet, much less the former President of the United States of America, and he has utterly failed to meet that burden here,” CNN’s response brief reads.

In July 2023, Florida District Judge Raag Singhal dismissed Trump’s suit with prejudice, meaning it cannot be brought again.

He ruled that there was “no question” that such statements met the standard for defamation under the law. But, he said, they were statements of opinion, and not fact—even though he found them to be “odious and repugnant.”

“CNN’s use of the phrase ’the Big Lie’ in connection with Trump’s election challenges does not give rise to a plausible inference that Trump advocates the persecution and genocide of Jews or any other group of people,” Singhal wrote.

“No reasonable viewer could (or should) plausibly make that reference.”

Trump appealed that ruling, arguing the judge had failed “to consider the totality and context of the defamatory statements,” by “finding that CNN’s statements were pure opinion or rhetorical hyperbole.”

The CNN case is one of several defamation suits Trump has brought against news outlets. Last year, the president sued the Wall Street Journal for publishing a birthday card he allegedly sent to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. That case is ongoing.

In 2024, Trump obtained a $15 million settlement against ABC and its anchor George Stephanopoulos, who claimed on air that Trump was “found liable for rape.”

Last September, a judge threw out a $15 billion suit against the New York Times and some of its reporters on the grounds that Trump’s legal brief broke court rules: It was unnecessarily lengthy and contained improper language, the judge ruled.

Trump refiled that suit in October.

The president has also teed up a suit against the BBC, after reports it had altered a video of him speaking to supporters at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to make it appear as if he was promoting violence. The BBC on March 16 asked the court to dismiss the suit.

Authored by Bruce Parker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The boom in artificial intelligence (AI) technology and hyperscale facilities has created a growth opportunity for businesses that keep cloud- and AI-related computer servers from overheating.

A worker walks among racks and network switches at the LightEdge Solutions data center in Altoona, Iowa, on Oct. 15, 2019. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Cooling is essential for electronics. Without it, today’s high-performance computer chips would literally melt down.

Navid Kazem is an electronics cooling expert and general chair of Semi-Therm, a leading global conference on thermal solutions for electronic components. He told The Epoch Times that data centers cannot function without proper cooling.

“You can burn down the chip pretty easily if you don’t have an effective cooling solution,” he said.

“What happens is the temperature of the chip rises to such high levels that you can effectively burn the chip.”

According to Kazem, silicon processors operate reliably at junction temperatures of 194–212 degrees Fahrenheit (90–100 degrees Celsius). If they rise much higher than 248 degrees Fahrenheit (120 degrees Celsius), they burn.

“The question comes down to, how can we cool them and keep them in that temperature range while spending as little energy as possible as we can,” he said. “So, there is a big push toward being able to use warm liquid for liquid cooling to cool this down.”

Switching From Air to Liquid

Data centers currently support rack power requirements of about 20 kilowatts. Since the latest central processing units and graphics processing units have higher thermal density than previous generations, that requirement is projected to exceed 50 kilowatts in the future.

A technician works at an Amazon Web Services artificial intelligence data center in New Carlisle, Ind., on Oct. 2, 2025. Noah Berger for AWS/Reuters

But as high-performance AI computing becomes increasingly heat-intensive and energy-intensive, conventional air cooling—the traditional approach to heat management—cannot keep up.

“When you go from air cooling to liquid cooling, you can save between 20 [percent] and 30 percent of the energy for the whole data center,” Kazem said.

“The most important thing is the amount of energy they are required to use. So if you can reduce the energy required for cooling, that means that you can have a more sustainable data center.”

Not only are air-cooling systems less effective at dissipating heat, but they also require more energy—sometimes more electricity than the servers themselves.

And since water is up to 3,000 times more effective at heat transfer than air and uses less electricity, data center operators are exploring ways to switch to liquid.

Liquid Cooling Options

Operators have three liquid-cooling options for managing heat: rear-door heat exchangers, direct-to-chip liquid cooling, and immersion cooling.

The first involves replacing the rear door of the IT equipment rack with a liquid heat exchanger. This option is used in tandem with air cooling.

With direct-to-chip liquid cooling, cold plates are placed on the board’s heat-generating components to draw heat away with single-phase cold plates or two-phase evaporation units. This technology removes up to 75 percent of the heat produced within the racks, while the remaining heat is whisked away by air.

In immersion cooling, servers and other components in the rack are submerged in a thermally conductive dielectric fluid. This system eliminates the need for air cooling and is the most energy-efficient of the three.

Which Is More Common: Air or Liquid?

According to recent market data, most existing data centers are currently air cooled, but liquid cooling is on the rise.

A survey conducted by S&P Global Market Intelligence of data center operators found that 45 percent use a fully air-cooled system, while 42 percent use a hybrid air-and-liquid-cooled system. Just 12 percent use liquid cooling only.

However, when asked about their plans for the next five years, 59 percent of respondents said their organization expects to adopt liquid cooling.

Of the three liquid-cooling options, 45 percent of respondents preferred liquid-to-air direct-to-chip, while 41 percent preferred liquid-to-liquid direct-to-chip.

An additional 41 percent said they would opt for the rear-door heat exchanger and 37 percent said they prefer a fully submerged cooling system.

Market Trends

Overall, the liquid cooling market is projected to grow from $6.6 billion in 2026 to $38.4 billion in 2033, according to a report put out last month by market research firm Market Minds Advisory.

Top players in the space, the report states, include Schneider Electric, Vertiv, Johnson Controls, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Green Revolution Cooling, Submer, LiquidStack, and Asetek Inc.

The trend was evident at last week’s 42nd annual Semi-Therm conference, a four-day symposium held in San Jose, California. The conference featured thermal engineers, researchers, and scientists for all-day sessions and short courses, and it attracted about 400 attendees, including engineers and planners from the hyperscale data center industry.

“Data centers and liquid cooling is one of the hot topics right now,” Laura Dobbs, marketing and exhibits manager for Semi-Therm, told The Epoch Times.

“For example, we have a track on liquid cooling, and we have a track on high-performance computer thermal interface management. … As data centers have continued to grow, liquid cooling has become a very important piece of that, versus air cooling.”

According to Kazem, design teams from the hyperscalers and data center companies attend Semi-Therm “to learn about the latest technologies.”

“It’s mostly about the energy consumption, and how much of cooling we can do for these data centers that are having very high, high-powered densities,” he said.

“So, that has become a major issue, and the conference this year is reflecting that challenge and opportunities ahead.”

Summary:

Israel says Iran’s intelligence chief Esmail Khatib was eliminated overnight as pace of top leadership killings accelerates.

Israeli attack on Iran’s major South Pars gas field could trigger retaliation on Saudi oil fields.

President Trump issues posts musing whether US should ‘finish off’ Iran, though Tehran signals continuity & stability of govt.

Iran FM says no change in nuclear posture: vows Tehran not pursuing an atomic bomb.

*  *  *

Iran Intel Chief Killed In 3rd High-Level Hit

More decimation of Iranian top leadership, as Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz has announced Iran’s intelligence chief Esmail Khatib was eliminated in an overnight strike, which marks yet another alleged high-level hit as the tempo of targeted killings accelerates. “On this day, significant surprises are expected across all arenas that will escalate the war we are conducting against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon,” Katz warned in a military briefing, according to Israeli media.

If confirmed, the reported hit would mark the third top-tier Iranian figure eliminated in just 48 hours, following Israeli strikes that reportedly killed national security chief Ali Larijani, who was likely effectively running the war, and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani.

Iran’s intelligence chief Esmail Khatib

Trump Posts: Finish Them

President Donald Trump posts Wednesday: I wonder what would happen if we “finished off” what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called “Straight?” That would get some of our non-responsive “Allies” in gear, and fast! 

Trump also said in a rapid follow-up that “We are rapidly putting them out of business!”

Still, Iran is signaling continuity, not collapse, even as newspapers in America run celebratory headlines such as “Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pushed back on the narrative of systemic breakdown, insisting the Islamic Republic “does not rely on a single individual.”

Meanwhile, unconfirmed chatter suggests parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf may have narrowly survived an assassination attempt in northern Tehran. There are indicators that he too may be running the day-to-day of the government and of the wartime response; however, it’s also clear the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is firmly in control of the country.

Israel Gives Military Freedom Of Elimination Strikes

As a reminder of analysis we featured earlier in the conflict, “Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to change the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore.” Journalist Jeremy Scahill, who starting over two decades ago covered the lead-up to the Iraq war from on the ground in Baghdad, has reiterated that “In asymmetric warfare, the less powerful side does not need to militarily defeat an adversary, but rather force it to a point where it determines the costs of continuing the war is too high.”

The US-Israeli operation is seeking to so utterly smash the country and its leadership, and potentially bring people out to the streets to topple the government, so as to avid reaching this dilemma. Israel is said to be working with spies and spotters on the ground, which Basij forces have sought to expose and arrest.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the killing of Ali Larijani:

I do not know why the Americans and the Israelis still have not understood this point.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has a strong political structure with established political, economic, and social… pic.twitter.com/v6cgyjaoU3

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 18, 2026

But just as Iran is clearly trying to adapt, by reportedly allowing autonomy of command among military units in the instance of being cut off from top leadership, so is Israeli too adapting its strategy and tactics. Katz has confirmed that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have granted the military standing authorization to eliminate additional senior Iranian officials, with no case-by-case approval required. Or in other words, the Israeli decapitation efforts are now on autopilot, signaling greater escalation.

More Patriots in Turkey After Third Iran Missile Flyover

Escalation isn’t just contained to the US-led Operation Epic Fury inside Iran. In Turkey, NATO is reinforcing its posture, deploying another US Patriot battery to Adana alongside existing systems – soon on the heels of the alliance reportedly having intercepted a third Iranian ballistic missile that briefly entered Turkish airspace this week.

Meanwhile, Iran’s own retaliatory footprint is widening, as it vows “revenge” for the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders. A strike near the Al Minhad base in the UAE, which hosts Australian troops, sparked a fire that damaged facilities, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed while saying that thankfully though no personnel were injured.

Dubai, long marketed as the region’s stable and quiet “safe haven” – continues to witness nightly sounds of air defense fire. The UAE confirmed its systems intercepted a barrage of threats, with fighter jets also scrambling in response to the threat overnight. 

Tehran Signals No Change in Nuclear Posture

Tehran, for its part, is surprisingly signaling that it has no intention of developing a nuclear weapon. It’s hard to evaluate any such official stance in the middle of a war for survival, but FM Araghchi on Wednesday reiterated that Iran’s nuclear posture “won’t significantly change” – even as military leaders warn of a “decisive and regrettable” response to Israeli strikes. 

Tehran holds funeral ceremony for security chief Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani. pic.twitter.com/4sjTyzzJgj

— Ihtisham Ul Haq (@iihtishamm) March 18, 2026

Nuclear sites have come under direct threat during the war, with Tuesday a projectile reportedly having near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear facility, though local officials say no damage occurred.

In Washington, there’s some clear doubling down militarily on the part of the Trump administration, while the question of finding an offramp is still likely being hotly debated within White House and national security circles. On the political front, the closer the US gets to Memorial Day travel with gas prices climbing higher, the more politically costly it is likely to be for Republicans.

South Pars Gas Field, Hormuz, Israel

The International Maritime Organization is scrambling to convene an emergency session on establishing a “safe maritime corridor” as ships and crews remain essentially trapped in the Persian Gulf. Crucially, Bloomberg is reporting that the attack on South Pars gas field appears to be from Israel and that Iran has vowed it would retaliated against regional energy infrastructure if attacked in such a way. Oil facilities have also reportedly been struck.

Axios’ Barak Ravid has cited a senior Israeli official to report Wednesday: “The Israeli Air Force struck the largest natural gas processing facility in Iran, located in the southwest of the country. The strike was carried out in coordination with and with the approval of the U.S.“

⚡️Earlier this morning, Israeli warplanes demolished a building in Al-Bashoura in Beirut pic.twitter.com/Y7zhlZNTho

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 18, 2026

Iranian missiles killed civilians overnight near Tel Aviv, and Israeli rail lines were disrupted along with a pause in many civic and public services, as people seek shelters. “An elderly couple, identified as Yaron and Ilana Moshe, were killed early Wednesday morning in Ramat Gan by a cluster missile as Iran continued to fire salvoes at Israel through the night and into the morning,” Times of Israel reports. “From midnight to 8 a.m., there were four rounds of missile fire that caused injuries and damage to property.”

⚡️Holon, Tel Aviv pic.twitter.com/HSkN9PigTA

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 18, 2026

Lebanon and Beirut are once again under fire as Israel expands strikes against Hezbollah positions in the southern part of Lebanese capital – with whole central buildings on fire and in some instances collapsing. A ground war has also been once again opening in southern Lebanon.

Stocks were set to extend gains into a third day as Iraq’s deal to reroute crude via Turkey, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, eased some supply concerns as Iranian strikes target Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, but it all unwound shortly after 7am ET,  following an Iranian report that US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure; Oil and petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added rekindling fears about the impact of the war in the Middle East on inflation. Aa a result S&P futures erased all of their overnight gains, fading what was earlier a 0.6% rise, and trading in the red. Nasdaq also faded all of its gains, and was trading flat at last check. All of this happens just hours before the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2pm ET today. Bond yields were down 1-2bp into the Fed meeting where the Fed is expected to hold rates steady with the dots potentially reflecting a hawkish outlook; the USD is flat. In commodities oil / natgas prices are lower but are off their overnight lows with Ags / Metals lower. Today’s macro data focus is on PPI and the Fed meeting.

In premarket trading,  Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Nvidia +0.7%, Tesla +0.5%, Microsoft +0.3%, Alphabet +0.2%, Apple +0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.1%, Amazon -0.1%)

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) rally after the companies announced updates and spoke to optical demand at the Optical Fiber Communications Conference in Los Angeles.
CF Industries (CF) falls 4.3% after Mizuho Securities cut its recommendation on the fertilizer company to underperform from neutral after the stock price rallied on expected growth in demand and prices after the Iran war and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz tightened fertilizer supply.
Constellation Brands (STZ) is up 2.8% after Citi raised the recommendation on the beverage company to buy from neutral, citing a beer topline acceleration and a valuation that’s below historical levels.
Coupang (CPNG) is up 2.6% after the company said that its collaboration with Nvidia helped it build an AI platform that will support the firm’s e-commerce logistics and delivery services.
Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) falls 1.3% after Argus Research downgraded the language learning software company to hold from buy.
Gemini Space Station Inc. (GEMI) is down 1.8% after Citi analyst Peter Christiansen cut its recommendation on the crypto exchange to sell from neutral.
Grail Inc. (GRAL) rises 4.5% after TD Cowen upgraded the life sciences company to buy from hold, saying the recent selloff creates an “attractive entry.”
SL Green (SLG) is up 2.7% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the office REIT to buy from hold.
Swarmer Inc. (SWMR) jumps 35%, set to extend gains after the artificial intelligence drone software company notched the best trading debut for a US stock in nearly a year.
T1 Energy (TE) is up 3.9% after the solar equipment maker said it secured 50 MW of grid power in Norway for a data center.

In corporate news, Lululemon forecast a second-straight year of profit declines, further pressuring the brand that’s dealing with product mishaps while searching for a new CEO.  AI remains in focus, with Asian memory stocks extending gains after Reuters reported Amazon’s CEO seeing ⁠AWS reaching $600 billion in annual sales — double his own prior estimate —  and as Samsung considers a shift toward multi-year contracts for memory chips. Wall Street will be looking for any commentary from Micron on how long prices could remain elevated, when the company reports results after the close. Alibaba is raising prices for its AI computing and storage products by as much as 34%. AI stocks in China got a lift after Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said OpenClaw, an agent that uses large language models to perform tasks like hailing a ride and booking restaurants, was “definitely the next ChatGPT.”

Markets remain on high alert over the war and the risk that a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz stokes inflation. How policymakers respond is now top of mind for investors, with the Fed expected to hold rates unchanged for a second straight meeting.

Iranian attacks on Israel and Arab states in the Persian Gulf continued overnight into Wednesday, while President Trump said the US could end the war with the Islamic Republic “in the near future.” The attacks followed Iran confirming the assassination of its security chief, Ali Larijani, in an Israeli strike. Meanwhile, sentiment deteriorated rapidly and oil prices spiked to a session high after Iran said shortly after 7am ET that US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure. Oil and petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added. An attack, if confirmed, would mark the first time Iran’s upstream oil and gas facilities have been targeted in this war. The field is shared with Qatar.

Israel said Wednesday that Iranian intelligence minister, Esmaeil Khatib was killed. Earlier, President Donald Trump said the US could end the war with the Islamic Republic “in the near future.”

“Equity markets are following the oil price quite closely, and at this stage what we’re seeing is perhaps that they are pricing in the most positive outcome,” said Nina Stanojevic, investment specialist at St. James’s Place. “That, I think, leaves equity markets quite vulnerable.”

Even if oil prices stabilize, they remain elevated and the longer they stay there, the greater the macro implications, which could be a source of focus for this week’s busy central bank slate. 

Today at 2pm ET, the Fed is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady. Investors will seek insight on how the central bank weighs pressures on both sides of their mandate — and whether responding to the threat of slower growth could add fuel to inflation that’s been above the Fed’s target for five years running. Ahead of Fed’s policy rate announcement, overnight swaps price in no hike premium and a combined 25bps of easing by the end of the year. Into the meeting, traders have been deleveraging in futures and unwinding hawkish policy hedges which have profited from the recent hawkish shift in policy pricing amid rising oil prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely emphasize that officials need more time to see how long the conflict with Iran lasts and to assess how it might ripple through to growth and inflation. He’s also likely to highlight the elevated level of uncertainty and the Fed’s need to keep its options open. Our full FOMC preview can be found here. 

“The market wants to understand where the Fed is leaning next,” said Stephanie Niven, portfolio manager at Ninety One. “Any shift in the median dot, any slight changes, will be really focused on.”

In geopolitics, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned she’s facing an “extremely difficult” meeting with Trump on Thursday, after he criticized the country for rebuffing his demand for warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking of Hormuz, it remains effectively shut with just three total commercial vehicle crossings in the last week.

Bank of America equity derivatives strategists warn that the current gap between realized and implied volatility is unusually wide, flagging “rising stress in still-complacent markets.” Equity resilience suggests sentiment has not reached peak bearishness and the worst is likely not over, writes Bloomberg’s Skylar Montgomery Koning. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 touched its highest level in more than a week before trimming the advance. It rose 0.5%, rising for a third day and keeping the global equity rally going after a broadly positive session in Asia. Banks and industrials lead gains in Europe, while the food and beverage sector is among the biggest laggards.Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday: 

Diploma shares rally as much as 18% to their highest intraday level on record after the building components supplier boosted its organic revenue forecast for the full year.
Bollore shares rise as much as 16%, the most since February 2021, after the French conglomerate announced an exceptional dividend payment.
Softcat shares rise as much as 9.9%, the most in a year, as first-half results prove much better than analysts expected and the IT services provider lifts its full-year guidance.
Commerzbank shares climb as much as 6.3% after UniCredit’s chief executive officer said the main purpose of Monday’s fresh takeover bid for the German lender was to “break the stalemate” and lead to a “common plan” between stakeholders.
PPC shares gain as much as 9.6% in Johannesburg, the most in nearly a year, after the cement maker reported a 22% jump in adjusted Ebitda for the 10 months through January on the company’s strategic plan gains.
Logitech shares drop as much as 5.9% after UBS downgrades the Swiss maker of computer peripherals, seeing signs of easing in the positive earnings revision cycle and weaker signals in the gaming market.
HelloFresh shares drop as much as 15% to a record low after the meal-kit company’s guidance for this year’s sales and profits came in well below analyst expectations.
Axfood shares fall as much as 5.3% after Handelsbanken joined Danske Bank in downgrading the Swedish food retailer and wholesaler, saying the case for a buy rating has played out as expected after a 20% gain since December.
Verbund shares drop as much as 5%, the most since November, after the renewable electricity firm gave 2026 guidance that Citi said implied significant downgrades.

Asian shares climbed 1.9%, led by gains in South Korea’s Kospi as Samsung Electronics Co. jumped more than 7%.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 2.2%, adding to Tuesday’s 0.9% advance. Shares of chip giants TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix were the biggest contributors to the rally. Korea’s benchmark jumped 5% as authorities announced more measures to enhance shareholder value.  

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, pushing losses into a third-straight day

In rates, European bonds are holding higher and Treasuries also edge up although futures trade off best levels into the early US session leaving yields richer by 1bp to 2bps across the curve. US session includes PPI data and the Federal Reserve policy interest rate announcement at 2 p.m. New York. Treasuries gains led by intermediates, flattening 2s10s spread by 1.5bps and adding to Tuesday’s tightening move. The 2s10s curve now at around 50.5bp trades just inside the yearly lows at 49.6bp reached March 12. US 10-year yields trade around 4.18% with gilts outperforming by 2bp in the sector.  The two-yield Treasury yield slipped 1bp to 3.66%; traders are betting on 26bps of Fed cuts by year-end, down from around 60bps at the end of February. On Thursday, Treasury sell 10-year TIPS in a $19 billion reopening auction

In commodities, oil erased an earlier fall with Brent crude futures now flat on the day and back around $104 a barrel, after Iran announced that its oil and gas assets in the South Pars oil field were under attack. Precious metals dip.  Based on a study of the past six supply-side oil shocks, “on average it takes around four to five months” for crude and stock markets to come to pre-shock levels, David Chao, a global markets strategist at Invesco said in a Bloomberg TV interview. The firm is “sticking with our outlook” of preferring US cyclical small cap stocks and emerging market equities, he added.

Today’s US economic data slate includes February PPI (8:30 a.m. New York time), January factory orders and durable goods orders (10 a.m. New York time), January TIC flows (4 p.m. New York time), and of course the FOMC decision at 2pm.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +0.3%,
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%,
Russell 2000 mini +0.6%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%,
DAX +0.7%,
CAC 40 +0.9%
10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.18%
VIX -0.7 points at 21.65
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1206.78,
euro little changed at $1.1533
WTI crude -1.9% at $94.37/barrel

Top Overnight News

US President Donald Trump wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ease a growing global energy crisis, but won’t achieve that easily without a ceasefire in the war on Iran. European and Asian partners are reluctant to send warships to help reopen the strait, questioning whether a handful of ships would make any difference against Iran’s ability to threaten vessels. BBG
Battered by Iranian strikes and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the United Arab Emirates and some fellow Persian Gulf states have come to view Iran’s theocracy as an existential enemy. They now want the regime they once courted to be neutered, if not dismantled, when the conflict ends—so the ordeal is never repeated. WSJ
The Middle East war has turned container shipping into a “wild west”, with carriers adding thousands of dollars in charges and dumping containers at far-flung ports, according to removal companies and customers. FT
South Korean stocks jumped after authorities moved to restrict publicly traded companies from listing certain subsidiaries, curbing a practice long blamed for diluting shareholder value. BBG
Major Japanese companies, including Toyota, offered big pay hikes in annual wage talks on Wednesday, reflecting strong pay momentum for a fourth consecutive year, although uncertainty from the Middle East conflict clouds the outlook. RTRS
The European Commission is set to delay the impact of a global banking reform as it seeks to stop EU lenders from being put at a disadvantage by US moves to cut capital requirements for big banks. According to two officials familiar with the plans, Brussels will after Easter adopt legislation to neutralize the short-term impact of the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) — a key component of the Basel III framework governing market risk. FT
The EU is planning to overhaul its merger rules to curb national powers to block corporate takeovers in a bid to help European companies build the scale to compete with US and Chinese rivals. The proposed reforms reflect growing frustration in Brussels that capitals intervened in a series of significant corporate deals, often to protect national champions at the expense of the single market. FT
Microsoft is weighing legal action against Amazon and OpenAI over a $50bn deal that could breach its exclusive cloud partnership with the ChatGPT maker, setting up a clash between the Big Tech rivals. FT
Bond traders are unwinding bets that drove markets to price out Fed rate cuts this year. The central bank is expected to hold rates steady for a second straight meeting today and Jerome Powell’s comments on the risks to the economy from the Iran conflict will be in the spotlight. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive handover from Wall Street and as oil prices retreated, while markets now await a flurry of upcoming central bank policy decisions, including from the FOMC later today. ASX 200 gained with the help of strength in tech, utilities and real estate, but with gains limited amid weakness in health care and the consumer sectors following the recent central bank rate hike, while money markets are currently pricing a coin flip for a third consecutive hike in May. Nikkei 225 climbed back above the 55,000 level amid several positive factors, such as mostly better-than-expected trade data, which showed a surprise surplus and with exports topping forecasts. US and Japan are also set to agree on the joint development of rare earths, copper, and lithium at a summit on Thursday, while they will jointly develop AI shipbuilding robots. Furthermore, participants mull over the first wave of corporate responses to the Shunto wage demands, and the BoJ also kick-started its 2-day policy meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with weakness seen in auto stocks and China’s oil majors, while reports that multiple Chinese companies were said to have received approval from authorities to purchase NVIDIA H200 AI chips failed to inspire the mainland.

Top Asian News

South Korea’s financial regulator said will expand the KRW 100tln market stabilisation programme if needed. To prepare specific plans to ban dual listing of parent companies and subsidiaries.

European Bourses are broadly higher with the IBEX 35 leading on bank strength, while the CAC 40 also gains. The SMI underperforms as Logitech declines following a downgrade at UBS. Softer oil prices, after the resumption of exports through Ceyhan port, provide a modest tailwind to equities. Sectors show a positive bias. Banks outperform amid reports the EU may delay stricter capital requirements, lifting names such as Banco Santander, Société Générale, and Intesa Sanpaolo. Food, Beverages & Tobacco lag after HelloFresh guides adj. EBITDA below expectations. Elsewhere, Heidelberg Materials gains on a double upgrade at Morgan Stanley, Unilever slips on reports it is exploring a food division separation, and Diploma surges after raising organic revenue growth guidance.

Top European News

EU Inflation Rate YoY Final (Feb) Y/Y 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.7%, Low. 1.8%, High. 1.9%).
EU Inflation Rate MoM Final (Feb) M/M 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -0.6%, Low. -0.6%, High. 0.7%).
EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (Feb) Y/Y 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.2%).
Swiss SECO Forecasts: Cuts 2026 GDP growth to 1.0% (prev. 1.1%), maintains 2027 GDP forecast at 1.7%; 2026 CPI raised to 0.4% (prev. 0.2%), 2027 CPI maintained at 0.5%.
South African Inflation Rate YoY (Feb) Y/Y 3.0% (Prev. 3.5%).

Trade/Tariffs

Japanese PM Takaichi said it will be tough regarding her visit to meet US President Trump on Thursday, while she will do her best to protect Japan’s interests.
Japanese PM Takaichi is to meet US President Trump on March 19th, Nikkei reported.
Japan-US summit joint statement is said to agree up to JPY 11tln as second investment batch, according to NHK

FX

DXY is flat in a tight 99.46–99.71 range after two sessions of declines, tracking softer oil prices. Focus turns to the Federal Reserve decision, where rates are expected to be maintained, with markets not pricing cuts until Q4 2026 and Chair Powell likely to avoid firm guidance given geopolitical uncertainty.
EUR and GBP trade muted against the dollar amid limited fresh catalysts. EUR/USD trades within 1.1518–1.1549, while GBP/USD sits in a 1.3341–1.3375 range as markets look ahead to the ECB and BoE tomorrow, both expected to signal a data-dependent stance.
JPY is choppy ahead of the BoJ decision overnight, where no policy change is expected. USD/JPY briefly dips to 158.57 before stabilising near 159.00, with some late pressure as oil prices ease.
Antipodeans are quiet with a slight upward bias. AUD/USD holds recent gains following the RBA decision, while broader macro drivers remain limited.

Fixed Income

UST is firmer in contained trade, tracking the broader fixed income bid driven by softer energy and yield expectations. Futures trade in a 111-30+ to 112-07 range, with focus squarely on the Federal Reserve decision, where updated projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s tone will guide expectations on how the Fed assesses Middle East-driven inflation risks.
Bund is stronger, with gains of up to 34 ticks and a high of 126.81 as energy-driven yield pressure eases. Upside levels are seen at 127.00, then 127.20–127.53, with a gap toward 128.00. Focus turns from final HICP (no reaction seen) and German supply to the FOMC as a signal for how the European Central Bank may position policy amid the energy shock.
Gilt outperform, rising over 50 ticks to a 90.26 peak, continuing the recent trend of UK strength versus peers. Resistance sits at 90.85 (11 March high). Attention remains on the FOMC as a precursor to Thursday’s BoE decision, alongside domestic political noise after criticism of UK PM Starmer from former Deputy PM Rayner.
Australia sold AUD 1bln 4.25% October 2036 bonds, b/c 4.14, avg. yield 4.9122%.

Commodities

Crude futures are softer, but off APAC lows as markets digest geopolitical updates without fresh escalation. Iran confirms the death of security chief Ali Larijani, while officials rule out a ceasefire, maintaining elevated uncertainty. Elsewhere, Iraq and Kurdish authorities agree to resume exports via Ceyhan, adding some supply relief, while private inventory data shows a crude build and gasoline draw. WTI trades within USD 91.45–95.65/bbl and Brent within USD 100.34–103.67/bbl.
Spot gold trades rangebound around the USD 5,000/oz level, balancing oil-driven inflation risks against persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Trades within a USD 4,977.21–5,016.20/oz range, with silver also contained.
Base metals are softer, extending the recent pullback as a firmer dollar and rising inventories weigh. Copper trades in a narrow USD 12,642–12,803/t range, with positioning also lighter on the bullish side.
Senior NATO military official pushes for extension of alliance’s pipeline system towards the east to supply NATO troops in a conflict with Russia. Adds that the NATO pipeline network should be extended to Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and Romania.
South Korea envoy said to receive 18mln barrels of crude oil from UAE and that UAE pledges to give number 1 priority to South Korea for crude supply.
Indian Government official says they are to give 10% more commercial LPG to states if they help if the long-term shift from LPG to piped gas, adds that LPG situation is still of concern.
India’s government is in talks with Iranian authorities for safe passage of six India-bound vessels carrying LPG and two crude oil carriers, according to two people aware of the matter cited by Mint.
Libya’s Sharara oilfield is gradually shutting down following a pipeline explosion.

Geopolitics

Several US officials described President Trump as the most bullish person in the White House on going to war with Iran, Axios reported. Three advisors to POTUS believe that Trump would want to end major operations before Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, the article noted that the leaders appear closer than ever.
US President Trump reiterated that they are way ahead of schedule regarding Iran.
Israel attempted to assassinate Iran’s Intelligence Minister Khatib overnight, Jerusalem Post reported citing an Israeli official; still awaiting results of the target, however the initial assessment is that he has been eliminated.
Iran’s Foreign Minister said the new protocol [in the Strait of Hormuz] to ensure safe passage would be under “specific conditions” and based on Iranian and regional interests.
Iran’s Foreign Minister said Iran will target US forces wherever they assemble, including near urban areas, he understands neighbours’ concerns and holds the US responsible for the conflict.
Iranian Foreign Minister has ruled out a ceasefire.
Iranian army spokesperson said armed forces will make use of more weapons that were not previously used in war, state TV reported.
Iran targets Tel Aviv with missiles carrying cluster warheads in retaliation for the killing of security chief Larijani, while Iran’s army vows decisive and regrettable revenge for Larijani killing.
Australian PM Albanese said an Iranian projectile hit near an Australian airbase in the UAE, although no personnel were injured.
Saudi Arabia is to host a meeting on Wednesday of Arab and Islamic foreign ministers in Riyadh on regional security according to the foreign ministry.
USS Gerald R. Ford is to head to Crete for repairs after a large non-combat fire last week, while USS George H.W. Bush is to relieve USS Gerald R. Ford in the Middle East.
Analysts warned that Iran is capable of sharply escalating its attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf, according to FT.
US Secretary of State Rubio called New York Times report on Cuba fake news and denies the US is seeking to oust the Cuban president.

US Event Calendar

8:30 am: United States Feb PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
8:30 am: United States Feb PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%
8:30 am: United States Feb PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 3%, prior 2.9%
8:30 am: United States Feb PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 3.6%
10:00 am: United States Jan Factory Orders, est. 0.1%, prior -0.7%
10:00 am: United States Jan F Durable Goods Orders, est. 0%, prior 0%
10:00 am: United States Jan F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
2:00 pm: United States Mar 18 FOMC Rate Decision 
4:00 pm: United States Jan Total Net TIC Flows, prior 44.9b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Saying goodbye to Cape Town today and heading to Johannesburg for my first ever visit. I’ve been to Cape Town five times: three to watch England lose at cricket, and twice on business. The second trip, around 20 years ago, featured the only time I’ve ever fainted. I was standing up on a plane, passed out, cracked my head on a food trolley, and ended up heavily bandaged with an ambulance meeting both the plane and me on the runway. I thought that might ruin the holiday, but I underestimated just how bad England were going to be at cricket on that tour. That was worse. The last visit was two years ago, right in the middle of the wettest period Cape Town had seen in a generation. By comparison, this trip has been relatively calm and lovely. So far.

There is also a bit more calm in markets at the moment and a small hint that there is a decoupling from the price of oil as the last 24 hours have seen more positive risk markets and lower yields in spite of Brent crude (+3.20%) closing above $100/bbl for a fourth consecutive session, at $103.42/bbl. Optimism has been boosted a bit more this morning as oil is back down a couple of percent seemingly on an Iraq deal with Turkey to resume oil exports through their territory and thus not requiring the Strait of Hormuz. US and European equity futures are up half a percent and Asian stocks are mostly higher with the KOSPI back to its incredible Jan/Feb march and up +4.46% with the Nikkei +2.68%, both helped by tech stocks.

This follows yesterday’s hopes growing that the Fed and other central banks meeting this week wouldn’t sound too hawkish in response to recent developments. We’ll have to see what the Fed say tonight, but in the meantime, the S&P 500 (+0.25%) built on Monday’s gains, whilst yields on 10yr Treasuries (-1.8bps) and bunds (-4.6bps) also fell back. Indeed, the VIX index (-1.14pts) closed at its lowest in nearly two weeks, at 22.37pts. That’s less than a point above the pre-Iran high for the year.

The broader relief rally was partly driven by more moderate moves in oil prices than we’d seen of late. In fact, it was the first day since March 5 that Brent traded within a range of less than 5%. We also saw comments from US officials that the war might soon be over soon, with Trump saying that they were “not ready to leave yet, but we will be leaving in the near future”. And separately, NEC Director Kevin Hassett said on CNBC that the expectation was still for a “four-to-six week operation”. However, there was no imminent sign of de-escalation with news of Iran striking energy infrastructure targets in the Gulf and that an Israeli strike had killed Iran’s national security chief Ali Larijani. That backdrop left oil prices higher on the day, though Brent did fall back from a high of $104.98/bbl before the European open.

Meanwhile we’re still seeing barely any traffic getting through the Strait of Hormuz, and US allies have maintained their reluctance to get involved in reopening the Strait. For example, French President Macron said yesterday that “France will never take part in operations to open or free the Strait of Hormuz in the current context”. That reluctance from US allies was acknowledged by Trump, who said in a post yesterday that “we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance”. Clearly the risk is that after the conflict fades, the tension between Trump and his fellow NATO leaders increases again with uncertain consequences. That’s a story for another day but it is a genuine concern.

Looking forward, we’ll start to hear more from central banks today about the likely response, as we kick off the latest round of monetary policy decisions. Indeed, this is the most bunched set of decisions in years, as in the space of 24 hours, we’ll get decisions from the Fed tonight, followed by each of the ECB, Bank of Japan and the Bank of England tomorrow. All of them are widely expected to hold rates, but there’s scope for plenty of headlines, as the Fed’s blackout period means we haven’t actually heard from the FOMC since the first week of the conflict, back when oil prices were still beneath $100/bbl and there were still wider hopes for a swift end to the conflict.

In terms of what to expect today, our US economists think the Fed’s communications will emphasise elevated uncertainty, with Chair Powell likely to avoid any strong signals about near-term policy. They also think the Summary of Economic Projections will be little changed, and will continue to signal one more rate cut for 2026. However, they do think that there’ll be upward revisions to headline and core PCE inflation for this year, so that’ll be one to keep an eye on. Indeed, core PCE was already at +3.1% in January, even before the recent uptick in gasoline prices because of the war. 

Ahead of the Fed’s decision, investors continued to expect one Fed rate cut this year, with the amount of rate cuts priced by December holding steady at 26bps (-0.4bps on the day). While 2yr yields (+0.4bps) were little changed at 3.68%, US Treasuries rallied further along the curve, with the 10yr yield (-1.8.bps) down to 4.18% and 30yr down -2.6bps to 4.84%. Interestingly, those moves came despite growing pessimism on the inflation side. For instance, the 1yr US inflation swap rose another +14.7bps yesterday to 3.13%, the highest since October. That came as investors also priced in a longer period of higher oil prices, with 6-month Brent futures (+3.26%) rising to $86.12/bbl. So it was lower real rates rather than inflation expectations which drove Treasury yields lower, with the 10yr real yield (-4.4bps) seeing its biggest daily decline since the Iran strikes began.

Earlier in Europe there was a similar pattern, with markets pricing in a more dovish path for rates and lower yields, even as inflation swaps moved higher. So the amount of ECB hikes priced by December fell another -7.5bps to 33bps. And in turn, yields on 10yr bunds (-4.6bps), OATs (-6.1bps) and BTPs (-6.9bps) all moved lower. Similarly to the US, real rates declined, as the German 10yr real yield (-1.2bps) fell to its lowest level since last April, at just 0.51%. That came as data continued to disappoint, with the expectations component of the German ZEW survey slumping to just -0.5 in March (vs. 39.2 expected). That’s its lowest level since the Liberation Day turmoil last April, which just shows how the Middle East conflict is already affecting sentiment.

That backdrop saw equities put in a decent performance, as declining volatility and hopes for more dovish policy outweighed concerns about higher oil prices. So the major indices advanced on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (+0.25%) posting back-to-back gains for the first time since the strikes began. Once again, energy (+1.02%) led the gains, and that component of the S&P 500 hit another record high yesterday. But cyclical sectors more broadly did well, with consumer discretionary (+1.00%) and financials (+0.51%) also outperforming. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.67%) had its best day in the last week, with energy similarly leading the way.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s exports grew at a slower pace last month, as tariffs weighed on car shipments to the US and as demand in China slumped due to the Lunar New Year holidays. The value of overall exports rose +4.2% in February from a year earlier, after a big jump of +16.8% in the previous month albeit beating market expectations of a +1.9% rise. Meanwhile, imports rebounded +10.2%, a little below the consensus estimate of +11.3%, as the trade balance swung to a surplus of ¥57.3 billion against an anticipated deficit of -¥460.0 billion. Yields on the 10yr JGBs are -4.7bps lower trading at 2.22% as I type, mirroring the global move of the last 24 hours.

Looking at the day ahead, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. In addition, the Bank of Canada will also announce their decision. Otherwise, US data releases include PPI for February, and factory orders for January.