Category: News
US Equity Futures Fade Overnight Gains As Global Selloff Deepens
US Equity Futures Fade Overnight Gains As Global Selloff Deepens
US equity futures are slightly higher led by Tech, but well off overnight highs, while stocks around global markets slide. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are up 0.1%, having previously been as much as 0.6% higher, after both gauges closed above their 50-day moving averages on Friday, a key support level. In premarket trading, Mag7 names are mostly lower led by GOOG +4%, NVDA is down 1% with earnings Wednesday after the close. Bond yields are lower as the curve mostly bull steepens; USD trades near session highs. Commodities are mixed with Energy weaker, Ags stronger, and mixed performance across metals. Airlines are back to full capacity as FAA lift restrictions. Government data releases return this week with the focus on Thursday’s NFP release (Sep data). Earnings will been focused on Retailers. Some of the week’s few key events: Nvidia EPS 11/19 post close ($300bn mkt cap implied move), VIX Expiry 11/19, FOMC Minutes 11/19, Sept NFP 11/20 pre-mkt (Goldman +80k vs 50k cons), Nov Opex 11/21, HD/WMT/LOW/TGT/TJX/WSM/GAP consumer EPS, +10 Fed speakers, and a continued slew of sell-side conferences.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Alphabet (GOOGL) rises 4% after a regulatory filing showed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. acquired 17.9 million shares of the Google parent during the third quarter. Amazon (AMZN) +0.8%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.08%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.07%, Apple (AAPL) -0.7%, Nvidia (NVDA) -1%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.7%.
Aramark (ARMK) falls 2% after the food and facilities management company reported revenue and adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter that missed consensus estimates.
EW Scripps (SSP) rises 19% after Sinclair took an 8.2% stake.
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) gains 1.8% after UBS upgraded its view on the company to buy, expecting growth in the customs/other segment to offset pressure from lower ocean rates in 2026.
Gap (GAP) rises 2% as Barclays upgrades the apparel retailer’s stock to overweight, seeing “durable brand recovery” when looking past tariff pressures.
PotlatchDeltic (PCH) falls 2% after being cut by two steps at Bank of America.
Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) climbs 16% after the company reported third-quarter net income of $2.4 million, or 1 cent per share, versus a loss of $5.7 million, or 6 cents per share, in the quarter last year.
Sealed Air (SEE) falls 3% after Clayton Dubilier & Rice agreed to buy the packaging company that invented Bubble Wrap.
Zymeworks (ZYME) jumps 35% after the drug developer gave topline results from a late-stage trial of its experimental combination therapy for cancer of the stomach and esophagus. Shares of partner Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) are up 21%.
In corporate news, Emirates is placing another major order for Boeing’s flagship 777X airliner, valued at $38 billion. Jeff Bezos has created an AI start-up where he will be co-CEO, according to the New York Times. Peter Thiel’s hedge fund Thiel Macro sold off its holdings in Nvidia during the third quarter, according to a 13F filing.
Stock futures have erased an earlier gain, when sentiment got a modest boost from Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson (whose timing has been rather atrocious in recent years), who said a new bull market and earnings cycle is powering on. Wilson predicted a 16% rally for the S&P 500 over the next year, driven by strong company earnings, making him among the most bullish strategists on the Street.
“We’re in the midst of a new bull market and earnings cycle, especially for many of the lagging areas of the index,” Wilson wrote in a note.
Others are less optimistic. Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach is worried about “garbage lending” in private credit and unhealthy valuations across asset classes, saying the US stock market is “among the least healthy in my entire career.” Among speculative assets, the steep drop in Bitcoin stabilized on Monday but smaller, riskier tokens are more fragile: A basket of the smallest digital assets fell to lows not seen since the pandemic on Sunday.
For the biggest tech stocks, Bloomberg’s analysis of 13F filings showed that hedge funds pared positions in Mag 7 stocks last quarter. Still, tech stocks accounted for the biggest weighting in portfolios, at 26%. The value of investments in consumer staples fell by the most for any industry.
“Despite being dated, the September US payrolls matter as delayed data has left uncertainty for markets and policymakers,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “The report will help clarify economic momentum and Fed rate-cut expectations.”
Uncertainty over the possibility of a hawkish pivot by the Fed has heightened fears that this year’s gains have gone too far. Traders have pushed the odds of a quarter-point rate cut in December below 50% after some officials signaled that further easing is far from assured. The Fed will release minutes from its Oct. 28-29 meeting on Wednesday to shed light on an unusual split among policymakers. Fed voting members including Philip Jefferson, Christopher Waller and John Williams are due to speak later on Monday.
“I do believe that the Fed still has the potential to cut in December, but that brings volatility,” Adrian Zuercher, co-head of Global Asset Allocation at UBS Global Wealth Management, told Bloomberg TV. “But overall, I do think markets are quite healthy and could actually go further up from here.”
In strategy, Deutsche Bank said that equity positioning has slipped back to neutral with discretionary investors turning underweight and positioning in mega-cap growth and tech trimmed. Meanwhile, investors are focused on ever-shortening windows of volatility to manage risks, such that the influence of contracts expiring from zero to five days away has surged, according to JPMorgan strategists. And RBC said that data shows some deterioration and slowing flows into passive investment for retail investors.
European stocks dip, tracking modest declines in Asia. Retail, travel and chemical shares are the worst performers on the Stoxx 600 while utilities and energy equities are the biggest underperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
Saab surges as much as 7.1% after the Swedish defense group rounded a major week for new contracts with a keenly anticipated deal to supply Colombia with new fighter jets in a contract worth €3.1 billion ($3.6 billion)
SIG Group AG surges as much as 12% after the Swiss food packaging maker appointed Mikko Keto as CEO. Vontobel says the appointment is a first step toward boosting investor confidence
WPP shares gain as much as 6.7% as advertising agency Havas has expressed interest in the London-listed company, the Times reported over the weekend
Ninety One declines as much as 4.6% in Johannesburg, the most since June 13 after the asset management firm reported pretax profit for the first half-year that missed the average analyst estimate
Genuit Group falls as much as 14%, after the provider of water and ventilation products warned it expects the market to remain subdued for the remainder of 2025 and into next year due to the economic and political backdrop
Pluxee shares fall, after the French employee-benefits firm revised its guidance to incorporate the potential impact of changes to Brazil’s meal voucher system, news of which sent the stock tumbling last week
In rates, treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.14%. Treasury yields are richer by 1bp to 3.5bp across the curve, the 10-year around 4.12%, with 2s10s spread flatter by nearly 2bp, 5s30s by 2bp about. Gilts pare some of Friday’s slump, with UK 10-year borrowing costs falling 2 bps to 4.55%.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The Aussie dollar is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback.
In commodities, bitcoin rises over 2% and back above $95,000, erasing its weekend fall. Spot gold is steady near $4,088/oz. WTI crude futures are little changed near $60 a barrel.
Today’s US economic calendar includes November Empire Manufacturing (8:30am) and August construction spending (10am); September employment data delayed by US government shutdown is slated for Thursday. Fed speaker slate includes Williams (9am), Jefferson (9:30am), Kashkari (1pm) and Waller (3:35pm).
Key events this week include Nvidia earnings on Wednesday and the release of long-delayed economic data. Another key event this week is the release of FOMC minutes of the Oct. 28-29 meeting, when Fed Chair Powell was unusually hawkish. Markets will be looking for any details on what Powell called a “growing chorus” of officials who think the Fed should pause for at least one meeting.
Market Movers:
S&P 500 mini unch
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%
Russell 2000 mini little changed
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
DAX -0.4%
CAC 40 -0.3%
10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.12%
VIX +0.4 points at 20.18
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1217.38
euro -0.1% at $1.1607
WTI crude -0.2% at $59.96/barrel
Top Overnight News
US President Trump posted that House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files, via Truth Social.
Trump signaled support for Senate legislation to sanction countries doing business with Russia, potentially targeting major consumers like China and India. BBG
China slow-walks U.S. soybean purchases as stockpiles hit multi-year highs, undermining Trump’s trade deal claims. CNBC
China escalated tensions with Japan over PM Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks. The state broadcaster warned of “substantive retaliation” including sanctions and trade curbs as Beijing cautioned against travel to Japan. BBG
Japan moved on Monday to tamp down an escalating row with China over Taiwan that has prompted Beijing to urge citizens to halt travel to its East Asian neighbor. The dispute erupted after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told Japanese lawmakers this month that a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatening Japan’s survival could trigger a military response. RTRS
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams met with Wall Street banks this week to discuss a key short-term lending facility: Reuters.
Trump administration officials, including Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., discussed scaling back the role of FDA Commissioner Marty Makary; RFK Jr. also considered installing a new leader to manage the agency day to day: WSJ.
Japan’s economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the latest quarter, as US tariffs hit exports and housing investment plunged ahead of a major stimulus package expected this month to boost the struggling economy. The decline in real GDP for July to September period was less severe than economists’ median forecast of 2.5%. FT
The euro-area economy will maintain its moderate expansion, with output rising 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, European Commission forecasts showed. Inflation is seen sticking close to the ECB’s 2% target over the next two years. BBG
The UK will today unveil proposals to make it easier to remove migrants with no rights to stay in the country. BBG
The Federal Aviation Administration said it would lift its flight restrictions related to the government shutdown, clearing the way for normal operations to resume at U.S. airports after weeks of delays and cancellations. WSJ
GOOGL +430bps pre mkt after regulatory filings show Berkshire Hathaway acquired 17.9 shares during 3rd quarter and ahead of release of Gemini 3.0 AI model which may arrive as soon as this week. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the China rare-earths deal will “hopefully” be done by Thanksgiving, according to Fox News. Treasury Secretary Bessent said he is confident China will honour the agreement after the upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, and emphasised that Washington has “many levers” if Beijing does not comply.
US President Trump said he does not think more tariff rollbacks will be necessary; he said top US officials spoke with their Chinese counterparts on Friday and that he is speaking to China about soybeans, according to Reuters.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump’s proposal to send USD 2,000 “dividend” payments from tariffs to US citizens would require congressional approval, according to Reuters.
Tesla (TSLA) is now reportedly requiring its suppliers to exclude China-made components in the manufacturing of its cars in the US, a fresh example of the fallout from Washington–Beijing tensions, according to the WSJ.
Brazil’s Vice President Alckmin said Brazil will continue working to reduce US tariffs further; he noted that progress has been made but there is still a long way to go, expressed optimism about further progress, and said the US government has taken a step in the right direction to reduce costs for its consumers, according to Reuters.
USTR Greer has warned the EU that trade remains a “flashpoint” with Washington, according to the FT.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly lower after the mixed lead from Wall Street, with sentiment in the region subdued as US President Trump over the weekend said he does not think further tariff rollbacks will be necessary. The Nikkei 225 saw modest losses on either side of 50k, while South Korea’s KOSPI (+1.5%) stood out as a clear outperformer amid strong gains in chip names after reports that Samsung is raising chip prices, whilst China’s tourist warning to Japan was seen as a positive for South Korea. Focus remains on the tech sector this week in the run-up to NVIDIA earnings midweek. ASX 200 was subdued with sectors mixed. Telecoms, Healthcare, and Consumer Discretionary lagged, while IT and Energy outperformed. Nikkei 225 was choppy and briefly slipped under 50k following Japan’s GDP contraction — the first in six quarters, albeit shallower than feared. Rising tensions between Japan and China added pressure, with Japanese travel-related names hit after Beijing warned citizens against travelling to and studying in Japan. KOSPI was the outperformer, driven by gains in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix after reports that Samsung raised server memory chip contract prices by up to 60% in November due to shortages – the former also plans to add a new chip production line as demand rises. Broader gains were also supported by China’s warning against travel to Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both traded with modest losses, broadly in line with regional moves (ex-South Korea). Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the China rare-earths deal will “hopefully” be completed by Thanksgiving, but stressed that Washington has “many levers” if Beijing does not comply. President Trump added he does not think further tariff rollbacks will be necessary, noting senior US officials spoke with Chinese counterparts on Friday and that discussions on soybeans continue.
Top Asian News
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) will build a new chip production line in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, with mass production slated to begin in 2028; the company also said FläktGroup is considering building a factory in South Korea, according to Reuters.
Alibaba’s (9988 HK) Qwen has entered public beta as a direct challenge to ChatGPT.
Japan’s government is reportedly considering compiling a stimulus package of around JPY 17tln, with a supplementary budget likely to be sized around JPY 14tln, according to Nikkei.
Japan’s Key Government Panel member Kataoka says the government must compile a stimulus package of up to JPY 23tln, funded with JPY 10tln in net bond issuance and JPY 13tln with tax and non-tax revenues. Adds: BoJ should move cautiously with policy normalisation. Should wait until March or April 2026 to raise rates. Should not rule out FX intervention in addressing excessive yen weakness.
India Trade Official says India and US could soon agree to address reciprocal tariffs as part of first part of the agreement. India and USA are likely to address broader trade issues in the second part of the agreement.
Japanese PM Takaichi to meet with BoJ Governor Ueda on Tuesday at 06:30 GMT.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) began the morning around the unchanged mark, with trade tentative, though recently sentiment has soured a touch with most European bourses slipping into the red. Nothing really behind the latest bout of pressure, but does continue the subdued mood seen overnight. European sectors also opened with a positive bias, but now holds a negative bias. Utilities and Real Estate marginally top the pile whilst Retail lags. Dassault Aviation (+6.2%) bucks the broadly lower mood in Europe, after Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine had ordered 100 Rafale fighter jets.
Top European News
ECB’s Rehn said the risk of inflation slowing shouldn’t be overlooked, according to Helsingin Sanomat. He added that “low energy prices, a stronger euro, and easing wage and services inflation pose a risk that total inflation slows excessively relative to our 2% target.”
ECB’s de Guindos says expect inflation to converge towards target. Uncertainty has abated but still a defining feature of out times. FSR will focus on 3 big risks, first is about risk of financial market corrections. There’s a risk of abrupt shift in sentiment. Fiscal challenge also a key vulnerability. Banks may face deterioration of credit quality. Banks resilience is underpinned by profits and capital. Adverse economic shocks could lead to rising corporate defaults, valuation corrections and losses for private funds and their investors. Upholding the macroprudential, measures for banks implemented in recent years. Closer monitoring and strengthening the macroprudential framework for the non-bank sector. Slightly more optimistic re. growth. Wage dynamic are going in the right direction.
UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering a nightly levy for British holidaymakers and foreign tourists on hotel stays and Airbnb-style rentals, via The Times.
EU Commission President von der Leyen, in a letter to member states, says the scale of Ukraine’s financing gap is significant. They have identified three main options. According to Reuters sources, the three options in the Ukraine financing are not mutually exclusive and can be combined or sequenced.
FX
DXY is flat/modestly firmer and trades in a busy 99.29 to 99.47 range, given the lack of pertinent newsflow this morning but ahead of a packed weekly docket, which includes; the release of the delayed September NFP report, FOMC Minutes and a number of Fed speakers. Today’s docket is a bit more on the quiet side with only really the NY Fed Manufacturing report and comments via Fed’s Williams, Jefferson, Kashkari and Waller.
EUR is a little lower today and trades just around the 1.1600 mark, within a 1.1596 to 1.1624 range. Newsflow for the region is relatively quiet ahead of the European Commission Autumn forecasts; there were some comments via ECB’s de Guindos who suggested that he is slightly more optimistic regarding growth, and expects inflation to converge towards target. Back to the Commission it raised its 2025 growth forecast for the bloc but cuts its view for 2026 to 1.2% (prev. 1.4%), while the inflation forecast was maintained for the year but increased in 2026. No significant EUR move seen, as such the single currency remains around the 1.16 mark.
JPY is modestly lower vs the USD, and as is the case with peers, trade has been contained within a narrow 154.41 to 154.83 range. Overnight, price action was also lacklustre, and was ultimately little moved by a less-than-feared contraction in headline GDP – largely due to weak exports and lower tourism. Analysts at OxEco write that the dip in GDP will likely prove to be temporary, suggesting that consumption should modestly improve. On the fiscal side of things, Japan’s Key Government Panel member Kataoka said that the Government must compile a stimulus package of up to JPY 23tln, funded with JPY 10tln in net bond issuance and JPY 13tln with tax and non-tax revenues.
GBP is flat/slightly lower and trades towards the midpoint of a 1.3136 to 1.3180 range. Traders remain solely focused on the Budget developments, albeit updates over the weekend have been lacking on that front. This morning, The Times reported that Reeves is considering a nightly levy for British holidaymakers and foreign tourists on hotel stays and Airbnb-style rentals.
Antipodeans are pressured, with the Aussie the marginal laggard across G10 pairs. Nothing really driving things for the currencies this morning, but follows on from subdued price action overnight, following the APAC risk tone.
Fixed Income
A contained overnight session for USTs. Meandered within a narrow 112-15 to 19 range early doors with specifics light and participants preparing for a week of delayed data to finally start hitting and a substantial amount of Fed speak; into this, the odds of a cut in December have slipped to c. 40% vs the ~50% seen last week. Thereafter, the early European morning saw a modest deterioration in the region’s risk tone (though, US futures remained strong), which provided some modest support to benchmarks generally. Lifting USTs further into the green and to a 112-22+ peak. If the move continues, we look to 112-23 from Friday before 112-31 and 113-00 from the two sessions prior. Today’s docket is dominated by Fed speak, where Williams (voter), Jefferson (voter), Kashkari (2026) and Waller (voter) are all due. From those, we expect Jefferson and Waller to provide texts, Jefferson and Kashkari to partake in Q&A’s while Williams is not expected to provide either.
Bund overnight action was contained and similar to that outlined in USTs. Until the arrival of European participants, where a bout of upside occurred as the European risk tone deteriorated. Newsflow is relatively light and the move isn’t a particularly pronounced one, with Bunds firmer by just over 10 ticks at most at a 128.79 peak. If this continues, we look to 128.97 from Friday after which there is a gap until the figure and then levels between 129.19-40 from last week.
Gilts are firmer, just about outperforming peers but the magnitude of action is also modest thus far. Gapped higher by 20 ticks to above the 92.05 mark before briefly losing the figure and then conformed to peers and lifted to a 92.29 peak, with gains of 14 ticks at most. Newsflow remains firmly focussed on the budget, and while there have been several scoops and reports around what Chancellor Reeves may do, there has not been anything of the magnitude seen last Friday. This week, the main focus point is Wednesday’s CPI, a series that provides early insight into the December deliberations, where Bailey may have to play the tie-breaking role once again.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks were muted to start the European session amid continued attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. WTI and Brent initially dipped USD 0.40/bbl on the open following the resumption of oil loading at Russia’s Novorossiysk Black Sea port. After dropping to a low of USD 59.32/bbl and 63.66/bbl respectively, benchmarks slightly rebounded, before a heftier bout of buying which sent WTI and Brent to a peak of USD 60.19/bbl and 64.48/bbl. Nothing really for it, but appeared to coincide with reports that Israeli warplanes targeted areas in southern Lebanon. This upside briefly pared, before then catching another bid back towards highs.
Spot XAU is oscillating in a tight USD 4050-4106/oz band as the European session gets underway and the market steadies itself following Friday’s selloff.
Base metals have traded rangebound throughout the APAC session and into the European session amid a lack of drivers to start the week. 3M LME Copper continues to trade well-within Friday’s range in a tight USD 10.79k-10.85k/t band as markets await fresh catalysts.
India’s October gold imports at USD 14.7bln.
Russia’s Kremlin says they have the capacity to eliminate the consequences of the Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk in a short period of time and recommenced all export activity.
Indonesia is finalising a plan to impose export taxes of 7.5-15% on gold product shipments; designed to be effective from some point in 2026.
All operations on intake and transfer of Kazakh oil has resumed at the Novorossiysk port, via IFX.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli warplanes have targeted areas in southern Lebanon, via Iran International citing Al-Mayadeen Network.
Israeli forces raided the city of Dura south of Hebron in the West Bank, according to Reuters.
Israel’s Defence Minister said the multinational force led by the US will take charge of disarming Hamas in Gaza, according to Reuters.
US Central Command said Iran’s use of military force to seize a commercial vessel in international waters is a violation of international law, according to Reuters. US Central Command said that on Friday it detected Iranian forces boarding an oil tanker flying the Marshall Islands flag in international waters, and that the tanker Talara was seized after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces boarded it via helicopter.
Iran’s foreign minister said the nation is no longer enriching uranium at any site in the country, via AP.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said there will be no Palestinian state and that Hamas will be disarmed — by force, if necessary, according to Reuters.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said the current US approach in no way indicates readiness for equal and fair negotiations; he added that Iran will always be prepared to engage in diplomacy but not negotiations meant for dictation, according to state media.
Lebanon will file a complaint to the UN Security Council against Israel for constructing a concrete wall along Lebanon’s southern border that extends beyond the “Blue Line”, according to the Lebanese presidency.
US President Trump warned that countries doing business with Russia will face sanctions under new legislation and said Iran may be added to that list, according to Reuters.
US President Trump is reportedly considering a “bilateral security agreement pledging to defend Saudi Arabia in the event of any attack”, via Politico citing sources.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Russia’s Novorossiysk Black Sea port resumed oil loadings on November 16, according to Reuters sources and LSEG data.
Ukraine’s military says it struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region, according to Reuters.
Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Yablukove in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, according to TASS.
Geopolitics: China-Japan
Japan is to send a senior diplomat to ease tensions with China, according to NHK.
China’s Coast Guard said a Chinese coastguard ship formation cruised past the Senkaku Islands and that the cruise was to protect rights and in accordance with international law, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics: Other
US aircraft carrier has arrived in the Caribbean in a major build-up near Venezuela, via AP.
US President Trump said he could have discussions with Venezuela’s President Maduro, according to Reuters.
Russian President Putin held a phone call with Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu, according to the Kremlin.
US President Trump said the US will test nuclear weapons like other countries, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: Nov Empire Manufacturing, est. 5.75, prior 10.7
10:00 am: Aug Construction Spending MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.07%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After the resolution of the US government shutdown, markets face a packed calendar of delayed and scheduled releases this week. Although maybe the most important event will be Nvidia’s earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday. One of the most interesting developments last week in the world of tech was the widening out of AI related CDS spreads. For example, Oracle 5yr CDS widened +18bps to 105bps and CoreWeave around +100bps to 630bps last week even as a volatile week for the Mag-7 ended in only a small -1.19% loss. The tights for the year for both were 33bps and 360bp respectively with the CoreWeave contract only starting trading in September. Some of this is concern about AI corporate bond supply over the next few quarters after a surprise surge in recent weeks. However, it seems that they are also being used as a general hedge for all sorts of positive AI positions. There aren’t many credit names to use to hedge AI lending (private and public), or general exposure, so these are bearing the brunt.
The US calendar dominates this week as agencies work through the backlog caused by the 43-day shutdown. The headline event is Thursday’s September employment report. DB’s economists expect payrolls to rebound sharply, with headline and private payrolls both forecast at +75k versus prior readings of +22k and +38k respectively, leaving unemployment steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3%, while hours worked edge up to 34.3. If realised, these figures would lift annual nominal compensation growth to 4.9%, though quarterly growth may slow to 3.7%, its weakest pace since the pandemic.
Beyond jobs, several delayed releases will inform Q3 US GDP estimates: August construction spending (today), factory orders (Tuesday), and the trade balance (Wednesday). Earlier data suggested 2.8% annualised growth for Q3 GDP, but this week’s numbers could tilt forecasts higher. More timely indicators include the Empire State manufacturing index (today), NAHB housing market index (tomorrow), Philadelphia Fed survey and October existing home sales (both Thursday). Consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan rounds out Friday, with inflation expectations within that survey remain a key watchpoint for policymakers.
Fed communication will be another major theme. A broad slate of officials speaks throughout the week, including Vice Chair Jefferson, Governor Waller (both today), and regional presidents Williams, Kashkari (today), Barkin and Collins. Markets will scrutinise these remarks for clues on the pace of rate cuts. Jefferson may be the most interesting to see whether he continues to suggest a slowing of rate cuts as the Fed approaches neutral.
The October FOMC minutes, due Wednesday, should shed light on internal debates and the conditions for a potential December move. Recent commentary suggests a more cautious tone, with some officials signalling that a December cut is far from assured, and on Friday December futures priced in a less than a 50% chance of a cut for the first time. ECB President Lagarde also speaks on Friday, adding a European angle to the policy debate.
Globally, attention will centre on flash November PMIs due Friday. Canadian (today) and UK (Wednesday) CPI figures are released, with UK retail sales and consumer confidence rounding out Friday. In Asia, Japan reports October CPI on Thursday, while China announces lending rates the same day. Corporate earnings will also feature prominently, with Nvidia in the spotlight on Wednesday, joined by Palo Alto Networks and major US retailers such as Walmart, Home Depot and Target. Chinese tech names Baidu and Xiaomi will also report. See the day-by-day week ahead for more at the end as usual.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning even if US futures are strong. As I check my screens, Chinese risk is soft with the Hang Seng (-0.84%) leading losses followed by the CSI (-0.70%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.47%) amid a renewed diplomatic row between Beijing and Tokyo as relations between the two countries sour further over Taiwan. Japanese stocks are also slightly weaker with the Nikkei (-0.11%) and the Topix (-0.37%) edging lower with the rising geopolitical tensions. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+1.80%) is rebounding sharply driven chiefly by outsized gains in chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. S&P 500 (+0.43%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.67%) futures are fairly strong for this time of the day higher.
Returning to Japan, the economy shrunk at an annualised rate of -1.8% in the July-September period (v/s -2.4% expected), as US tariffs sent the nation’s exports sharply lower. On a q/q basis, GDP slipped -0.4%, the first contraction in six quarters, but smaller than the -0.6% drop the market had expected. A big decline during the quarter came in exports, which were -1.2% down from the previous quarter. Yields on the 10yr JGBs are +2.3bps higher, trading at 1.73% as we go print.
Recapping last week now and markets saw initial optimism about the end of the longest government shutdown in history reverse as hawkish Fed commentary raised doubts that the Fed will cut rates in December. In the end, the S&P 500 was little changed (+0.08% on the week; -0.05% Friday), with a +1.54% gain on Monday offset by a -1.66% fall on Thursday. The small weekly gain was led by defensive sectors such as healthcare (+3.87% on the week) as Congress passed legislation funding most government agencies through January 30, which ended the shutdown after 43 days. By contrast, tech stocks struggled with the NASDAQ down -0.45% (+0.13% Friday) and the Mag 7 -1.19% weaker (+0.17% Friday). Those declines were led by a -5.86% drop for Tesla, though Nvidia managed to bounce back +1.07% (+1.77% Friday) despite Softbank announcing that it had sold its entire stake for $5.83bn to focus on other AI investing.
Struggles in momentum trades were also visible with Bitcoin, which fell -8.53% (-3.83% Friday) and is now -24% down from its early October peak and back to levels last seen in May (it’s bounced back a couple of percent this morning). By contrast, credit had a resilient week with US IG spreads flat and HY spreads -5bps tighter respectively.
In the rates space, hawkish comments from Fed officials pushed Treasury yields higher. On Friday, Dallas Fed President Logan said “I think it would be hard to support another rate cut unless we were to get convincing evidence” from the data. Other officials had earlier also sounded sceptical about a December cut, such as Boston Fed President Collins saying that “it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time”. All the comments saw the pricing of a December rate cut decline from 67% on Tuesday to 43% by Friday’s close, with 2yr Treasury yields climbing +4.5bps to 3.61% (+1.6bps Friday) and 10yr yields +5.1bps to 4.15% (+2.9bps Friday).
Over in Europe, the French National Assembly supported the suspension of the pension age increase until after 2027 to keep the budget process on track, leading to a rally in CAC 40 of +2.77% (-0.76% Friday). The Swiss market also outperformed (+2.73%, -0.84% Friday) as the US and Switzerland reached a preliminary trade deal lowering tariffs from 39% to 15%, in exchange of $200bn direct investment in the US by the end of 2028. Both the Stoxx 600 (+1.77%, -1.01% Friday) and the DAX (+1.30%, -0.69% Friday) also saw decent gains. On the bond side, 10yr bunds (+5.4bps) and BTPs (+4.0bps) matched the weekly move in Treasuries, while OATs (-0.4bps) outperformed on the budget news.
Finally, the UK came into the spotlight after the FT reported on Thursday night that PM Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves ditched plans to increase income tax rates at the upcoming budget. Further reporting on Friday suggested this was in part as more optimistic projections reduced the size of the fiscal gap. Still, the news weighed on UK assets, with 10yr gilts (+13.7bps Friday, +11.3bps on the week) seeing their biggest daily sell off in four months, while the FTSE 100 fell -1.11% Friday, underperforming European peers over the week (+0.16%).
Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/17/2025 – 08:49
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-equity-futures-fade-overnight-gains-global-selloff-deepens
Hombres armados secuestran a 25 alumnas de secundaria en Nigeria y matan a empleado escolar
Por DYEPKAZAH SHIBAYAN
ABUYA, Nigeria (AP) — Hombres armados atacaron una escuela secundaria en el noroeste de Nigeria antes del amanecer del lunes y secuestraron a 25 alumnas, informó la policía.
Un empleado de la escuela fue asesinado y otro resultó herido en lo que fue el último incidente de secuestros escolares en la región norte de Nigeria.
Por el momento ningún grupo se ha atribuido la autoría de los secuestros en el internado del estado de Kebbi.
Según la policía, el incidente ocurrió a las 4:00 de la mañana y las menores fueron secuestradas de sus dormitorios. El internado está en Maga, en el área de Danko-Wasagu del estado, dijo el portavoz de la policía Nafi’u Abubakar Kotarkoshi.
Los agresores estaban armados con “armas sofisticadas” e intercambiaron disparos con los guardias antes de secuestrar a las menores, comentó Kotarkoshi.
“Un equipo combinado está actualmente peinando posibles rutas de escape y bosques circundantes en una operación coordinada de búsqueda y rescate destinada a recuperar a las estudiantes secuestradas y arrestar a los perpetradores”, agregó el portavoz.
Este es el secuestro escolar más reciente registrado en la región norte de Nigeria, donde grupos armados han atacado a niños en edad escolar desde 2014, cuando el grupo miliciano Boko Haram secuestró a 276 estudiantes de Chibok en el estado de Borno.
Los secuestros se han vuelto comunes en partes del norte de Nigeria, donde docenas de grupos armados aprovechan la limitada presencia de seguridad para llevar a cabo ataques en aldeas y a lo largo de las principales carreteras. La mayoría de las víctimas son liberadas tras el pago de rescates que a veces ascienden a miles de dólares.
En marzo de 2024, más de 130 escolares fueron rescatados después de pasar más de dos semanas en cautiverio en el estado nigeriano de Kaduna.
El secuestro masivo de 276 niñas de Chibok marcó el comienzo de una nueva era de miedo, con casi 100 de las niñas aún en cautiverio en 2024.
Desde los secuestros de Chibok, al menos 1.500 estudiantes han sido plagiados, ya que los grupos armados usan cada vez más estos crímenes como una forma lucrativa de financiar otros y controlar aldeas en la región rica en minerales pero mal vigilada del país.
___
Esta historia fue traducida del inglés por un editor de AP con la ayuda de una herramienta de inteligencia artificial generativa.
Brent Initially Slides After Russia Restarts Key Novorossiysk Port After Drone Attack
Brent Initially Slides After Russia Restarts Key Novorossiysk Port After Drone Attack
Brent crude prices were initially lower, and are now flat, after operations resumed at Russia’s key Black Sea export hub, Novorossiysk. This follows last Friday’s Ukrainian drone strike on the export hub, which had sent prices soaring.
Satellite images confirm major damage to the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk after a combined drone and missile strike. Critical loading systems and pipelines were hit. With fires raging and infrastructure crippled, the port may be out of service for a long time. pic.twitter.com/waoSfx0qxj
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 15, 2025
Brent slid to $63 per barrel in Asia and Europe after Reuters and Bloomberg reported that crude-loading operations had resumed at Novorossiysk.
Bloomberg noted that two tankers were moored at the export hub on Sunday, while Reuters reported that loading had restarted.
Much of the overnight losses were cut by the time US traders woke up, as Brent prices inched above $64. Last Friday, the drone attack sent crude oil up more than 2%.
Here’s the chart:
“People were expecting a longer outage” at Novorossiysk following the strike, said Mukesh Sahdev, the founder and chief executive officer of Xanalysts Pty. Indications of a resumption are a “bearish signal,” he added. Sahdev was quoted by Bloomberg.
Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted Russian oil export chokepoints, including oil-refining, storage, and export infrastructure, using drones and missiles. Novorossiysk was targeted for several key reasons:
Russia’s Largest Black Sea Oil Export Terminal: Novorossiysk handles a major share of Russia’s seaborne crude exports, including Urals and CPC Blend. When it goes offline, millions of barrels per day are at risk.
Key Outlet for Sanctions-Crimped Russian Supply: With many European ports closed to Russian oil, Black Sea routes have become even more vital. Novorossiysk is one of Moscow’s few remaining large, reliable export points.
Gateway to Europe, the Mediterranean, and Global Markets: Tankers from Novorossiysk move oil toward Europe, Turkey, India, and increasingly China. Any disruption affects multiple downstream markets.
Linked to CPC Pipeline Exports: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) routes Kazakh and Russian crude to Novorossiysk.
The broader oil market outlook heading into 2026 remains bearish (read report).
Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/17/2025 – 08:34
Column: Stalled legislation could lead to horse racing/slot machines in Richton Park
There is a bill slowly grinding its way through the Illinois General Assembly that would allow construction of harness racetrack crammed with as many as 1,200 slot machines in Richton Park.
Did I just write that?
In Richton Park?
Late last month, the Illinois Senate passed, by a vote of 49-8, a bill that would clear the path for the start of construction of such a facility, a sports palace which Richton Park Mayor Rick Reinbold thinks could be built along the Sauk Trail-Laraway Road pathway just east of Harlem Avenue.
Hold on to your wallet, sports fans. This is still Illinois and, according to state Sen. Patrick Joyce, who along with state Rep. Anthony DeLuca are two of the eight co-sponsors of the bill, there are speed bumps which could delay or even kill the plan.
The biggest obstacle is the Stickney-based Hawthorne Racetrack which is the oldest family-run racetrack in North America. It has the authority through legislation to stop the development of any other horse track within 35 miles of its location in Stickney.
For the record, the village of Richton Park is a mere 24 miles south of Stickney as the crow flies.
Last year, the Illinois Senate passed a bill eliminating that provision by January 2026, but when the House OK’d the bill this session it made some changes which now have to be approved again by the Senate.
Two key differences passed by the House were the elimination of Hawthorne’s veto power over construction of another racetrack and limiting Hawthorne to one horse race meeting a year. The House must now approve the amended bill when it meets next year before it goes to Gov. JB Pritzker for his approval.
If Hawthorne’s ban on a nearby track is eliminated, the Illinois Racing Board could issue a license for a new track with a “limit” of no more than 1,200 slots on site. As a matter of record, the Wind Creek Casino in Homewood has more than 1,400 slot machines.
Richton Park Mayor Rick Reinbold, a Navy veteran, speaks May 9, 2024 at a veterans symposium. (Mike Nolan/Daily Southtown)
There is many a slip between legislative plans and final results, but if the bill runs into opposition in the House next year “we might have to start over again,” says Joyce.
Along with the potential for a trotting track in the south suburbs there is a similar bill that the Senate must also OK for a racetrack in Macon, Illinois, some 10 miles south of Decatur.
The horse racing industry has a long checkered history in the south suburbs. For 89 years, from 1926 to 2015, Lincoln Fields, later renamed Balmoral Park, situated near Crete, was the setting for both thoroughbred and standardbred racing. Perhaps the most famous horse to run at the track was the 1941 Triple Crown winner Whirlaway who, in June 1940, won his first race as a 2-year-old at the track.
In 2015, a U.S. Court of appeals judge fined both the owners of Balmoral and Maywood Park in Melrose Park $77.8 million as restitution to casinos in Joliet, Elgin and Auroa in the aftermath of a “pay to play” scheme involving the tracks’ contributions to then Gov. Rod Blagojavich.
Both tracks quickly filed for bankruptcy.
Balmoral opened two years later as a horse show arena, held some shows but by 2020 the facility was up for sale. Price was $4 million. There were no takers.
Homewood was the site of the Washington Park racetrack from 1926 until February 1977, when a fire destroyed the grandstand and put the facility out of business. During its heyday, it was a prime midsummer stop for thoroughbreds. Perhaps its biggest event was the Aug. 31,1955, match race with Nashua defeating Swaps for a purse of $100,000, which is the equivalent of $1,208,865 in today’s world.
Meanwhile Reinbold hopes things go his village’s way these days in another plan to improve his village’s financial lot.
Some two years ago, we commented about his request to the Chicago Bears to look at his community as the site of a new stadium. Everyone knew this was a pie in the sky idea and some thought it was a pointless bit of promotion.
Considering the seeming lack of enthusiasm in Chicago for almost all things south of City Hall, I thought that instead of asking “why” we should say “why not.”
Jerry Shnay is a freelance columnist for the Daily Southtown.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/17/column-horse-racing-slot-machines-richton-park/
Presidente de Bolivia denuncia corrupción por 15.000 millones de dólares en gobierno anterior
Associated Press
LA PAZ, Bolivia (AP) — El presidente de Bolivia, Rodrigo Paz, denunció que en su primera semana en el gobierno se detectaron casos de corrupción por unos 15.000 millones de dólares cometidos durante la anterior administración.
“Todavía estamos procesando la información y en su momento presentaremos denuncias puntuales, pero lo que hemos encontrado es una cloaca con más de 15.000 millones de dólares en corrupción. Nos han robado el futuro”, dijo el domingo en una rueda de prensa.
El mandatario mencionó como ejemplo la compra de radares para el control aéreo en la lucha contra el narcotráfico por 360 millones de euros “que no funcionan”.
Paz también acusó a su antecesor Luis Arce (2020-2025) de dejar sin recursos al Estado central. “Nos han dejado sin dinero”, sostuvo al evaluar su primera semana al frente del gobierno.
El centroderechista heredó una economía sumida en la peor crisis en 40 años con una aguda escasez de combustibles y una inflación acumulada hasta septiembre de 18,33% respecto de similar periodo del año anterior. En tanto, la cotización del dólar en el mercado paralelo más que duplicaba el cambio oficial.
Bolivia importa cerca del 60% de la gasolina y casi el 90% del diésel que consume, lo que le demanda anualmente al Estado cerca de 3.000 millones de dólares, una de las mayores causas del déficit fiscal que bordea el 10% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), según informes oficiales.
Paz destacó que “se está normalizando la distribución de combustibles, el precio del dólar se estabiliza y el riesgo país está bajando” pero advirtió que “todavía nos falta reordenar la casa”.
Container Imports Drop 17.6% In October At Busiest US Port
Container Imports Drop 17.6% In October At Busiest US Port
By Stuart Chrils of FreightWaves.
The Port of Long Beach is moving containerized cargo ahead of the cumulative record-setting pace achieved in 2024 despite weaker demand that saw October volumes drop by nearly 20% from a year ago.
The hub, which along with the Port of Los Angeles forms the San Pedro port complex, the nation’s busiest, moved a total 839,671 twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October, down 14.9% from October 2024 – the strongest month in its 114-year history.
Imports declined 17.6% to 401,915 TEUs and exports dropped 11.5% to 99,817 TEUs. Empty containers, an indicator of future import shipments, decreased 12.6% to 337,940 TEUs.
Long Beach has moved 8,229,916 TEUs through the first 10 months of 2025, ahead 4.1% y/y and on pace to better 2024’s all-time record volume of more than 9.6 million TEUs.
The port has maintained steady operations despite an uncertain outlook amid ongoing tariff and trade policies, Port of Long Beach Chief Executive Mario Cordero and Chief Operating Officer Noel Hacegaba said in a virtual media call.
In response to a question from FreightWaves about the effect on cargo of the now-paused U.S. port fees on Chinese ships, Cordero said, “I think that the volume speaks for itself. Hopefully this pause — whether it’s ship fees or tariffs — will help the parties find a pragmatic solution that’s not going to impact the American consumer.”
“The consumer has not seen significant tariff impacts given that manufacturers, retailers, and others have shared in incurring some of these costs and mitigating price escalation to the consumer, but that may change as we approach 2026,” said Cordero, who earlier announced his retirement as port chief.
“Consumers will likely see price escalation in the coming months as shippers continue to pass along the cost of tariffs on goods and a higher percentage of these costs will be passed on to the consumer.”
Hacegaba said the port continues to work with its partners “to anticipate and mitigate issues before they arise to keep cargo and our economy moving.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/17/2025 – 08:05
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/container-imports-drop-176-october-busiest-us-port
Explosión en casa del sur de California hiere a ocho y daña viviendas cercanas
Associated Press
CHINO HILLS, California, EE.UU. (AP) — Una casa explotó en un vecindario del sur de California, hiriendo a ocho personas y dañando dos casas cercanas, un incidente en el que los bomberos evacuaron un total de 16 viviendas.
Los bomberos en Chino Hills no indicaron qué causó la explosión el domingo, pero mencionaron que detuvieron una fuga de gas. Fotos y videos del lugar mostraban la casa reducida a un montón de escombros.
“Las cuadrillas permanecerán en el lugar para continuar con la revisión y la investigación”, publicó en línea el Distrito de Bomberos de Chino Valley.
El Departamento de Bomberos informó que cuatro personas fueron llevadas de la casa a un hospital, y otras cuatro se trasladaron por sus propios medios. De momento se desconoce su estado de salud.
KABC-TV reportó que testigos dijeron haber visto a personas corriendo desde la casa que explotó, incluyendo niños pidiendo ayuda.
Las autoridades permitieron a las personas cuyas casas no resultaron dañadas regresar más tarde a sus viviendas.
Se dejó un mensaje telefónico solicitando comentarios a la Compañía de Gas del Sur de California.
Chino Hills tiene aproximadamente 78.000 habitantes y está a unos 56 kilómetros (35 millas) al sureste de Los Ángeles.
___
Esta historia fue traducida del inglés por un editor de AP con la ayuda de una herramienta de inteligencia artificial generativa.
“I Feel Safer Holding Gold”: Vietnamese Govt Cracks Down On Hoarding
“I Feel Safer Holding Gold”: Vietnamese Govt Cracks Down On Hoarding
In the sweltering chaos of Hanoi, 67-year-old Le Thi Minh Tam is waging a desperate guerrilla war against vanishing stockpiles – scrambling from one gold shop to the next, only to find Soviet-style queues where the shiny salvation sells out faster than a central banker’s excuses.
“I’m getting worried, as I still don’t have enough,” she tells Bloomberg, the weight of her son’s impending nuptials crushing her, helped by the State Bank’s iron fist.
“They don’t sell gold bars anymore, only gold rings with a very limited amount for each customer.”
But as Bloomberg goes on to note, Tam’s not some outlier in this fever dream; she’s the face of a nationwide gold apocalypse triggered by the yellow metal’s moonshot to $4,380 an ounce last month.
Vietnam, where gold isn’t just bling but a cultural bunker against the fiat apocalypse – stashed under beds like contraband ammo for the next economic blitzkrieg – is in full-blown mania mode.
Weddings? Forget flowers; it’s all about gifting the one asset that laughs at inflation’s grim reaper. This isn’t optional; it’s ritual, a hedge forged in the fires of the Vietnam War when paper promises turned to ash, and even now, when bank deposits feel like IOUs from a Ponzi scheme run by Hanoi apparatchiks.
Down in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) – 1,700 km south, where the humidity matches the desperation – shoppers are turning into urban nomads, camping overnight like it’s the last chopper out of Saigon. Nguyen Kim Hue, a 57-year-old online food peddler scraping by in the gig economy’s underbelly, showed up at 6 a.m. thinking she’d outfox the horde.
“I thought coming at 6 a.m. was early, but it was already crowded,” she recounts, the bitter taste of empty-handed defeat still fresh from her last raid.
“The last time I came, I couldn’t buy anything because they ran out of gold.”
Cue the “sold out” signs, those scarlet letters of supply-chain sabotage.
Flashback to the glory days of communist control: Back in 2012, as inflation clawed at the dong like a rabid dog, the geniuses in Hanoi slapped a state monopoly on gold imports and production. The State Bank of Vietnam became the gatekeeper, funneling scraps through Saigon Jewelry Co.’s exclusive chokehold on bars. Result?
A yawning chasm between local premiums (10-15% over spot) and the global “free” market, birthing a black market beast that chewed up the currency and spat out volatility.
Fast-forward to October: The politburo finally cracks the door, ending the 13-year stranglehold in a half-hearted liberalization play.
But don’t pop the champagne – Hanoi’s still doling out import quotas like candy from a miser’s pocket, with the central bank playing quota czar.
“We’ll have to wait until mid-December to see how much gold import quota the central bank grants,” says Huynh Trung Khanh, vice chairman of the Vietnam Gold Traders Association, sounding like someone who has questioned his fair share of ‘five-year-plans’.
“It’ll probably be far below what the market needs to meet demand.”
Vietnam ‘demands’ 55 tons a year – a Southeast Asia heavyweight – but last year’s official imports were a measly 13.5 tons, courtesy of the same bureaucrats now pretending to “reform.”
The goal? Squeeze that premium down to 2-3%, turning Vietnam’s gold bazaar into a semi-respectable shadow of Shanghai or Mumbai. Good luck with that.
And why the frenzy? Because in a nation scarred by wars, famines, and fiat fuckery, gold is the ultimate protection against ‘the system’.
“We’ve been through wars and hard times, so people here have seen gold as the safest place for their money—a safe haven, something they can rely on when life gets tough,” Khanh remarks, echoing the global chorus from Delhi to Istanbul where central bank bids and retail panic are sending bullion to the stratosphere.
Globally, gold’s the cockroach of commodities this year – up big on ETF inflows and BRICS finger-flipping at the dollar – while wedding seasons worldwide turn jewelers into mints on steroids.
Prices have dipped from the peak, but the “sold out” apocalypse rolls on. Last week in HCMC, hordes queued for hours outside a flagship shop, tickets rationed like bread lines in the gulag. Hue dragged her husband into the fray and sweet-talked the clerk into five rings instead of one:
“At first the shopkeeper told me I could only buy one ring, but I persuaded her to sell me more,” she beamed.
“I’m so happy now.”
So what are the new rules?
As Bloomberg lays out, cash-for-gold’s dead; anything over 20 million dong ($760) demands a bank transfer, leaving grandma types fumbling for their kids’ apps like Luddites in a crypto winter.
Hue kicked off her hoard in June at 120 million dong per tael (that’s ~1.2 troy ounces for the uninitiated). Now? 147 million, a 22% gut-punch that’d make even Jamie Dimon wince.
“Before, I used to keep my savings in the bank, but now I feel safer holding gold,” she confesses.
“It’s my way of making sure my money doesn’t lose value. This is for my children’s education and my retirement.”
Translation: When the dong’s a dumpster fire and banks are just vaults for the elite’s digital funny money, you bet on the barbarous relic.
Even the kids are in on it.
Tran Thi Yen Nhi, 20 and slinging construction swag in HCMC, endured a three-hour vigil for her sister’s big day.
“My parents asked me to help, because it’s hard for them to stand in line for so long,” she says, generational torch-passing in action.
“I’ve made it a habit to buy gold whenever I can save some money, just little by little. Since I was a little girl, I saw my grandmother do the same. She bought gold whenever she saved a bit and then kept it under her bed.”
The World Gold Council pegs Vietnam’s under-mattress stash at 500 tons – pocket change next to India’s 34,600-ton elephant, but enough to make regulators sweat.
Enter the fixers
The Vietnam Association of Financial Investors is hawking a 10% tax on buys to “discourage hoarding” and shove peons toward their approved stock ponzis.
For now, it’s a measly 0.1% on bars for “data trails” and revenue grabs, plus a three-phase gold exchange rollout to drag the rings, coins, and bars out from under the bed and into the light (and sync prices with the world).
Because nothing says “trust us” like taxing the one thing folks trust more than your printing press.
But spare a thought for Tam, still grinding through the gauntlet as her son’s wedding looms like a debt collector.
“I’m so tired and worried,” she laments.
“The wedding is coming soon, and I still haven’t been able to buy enough. In Vietnam, gold isn’t just a gift. It’s how we show our love.”
In a world where governments peddle stability while inflating away your future, that’s not sentiment – it’s survival. And as Vietnam’s gold wars rage on, bet on this: The real mania’s just getting started.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/17/2025 – 07:45
Daywatch: Record property tax increases slam Chicago homeowners
Good morning, Chicago.
Chicago homeowners are being walloped with a record property tax hike, with some of the city’s poorest neighborhoods absorbing the steepest increases even as downtown office owners see their bills fall, according to new data from the Cook County treasurer’s office.
An analysis from Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas’ office found the median property tax bill for a Chicago homeowner jumped 16.7% since last year, the largest percentage increase in at least 30 years. The surge follows similar spikes in Cook County’s north and south suburbs over the last two years and complicates the job of the Chicago City Council as it considers tax hikes to help close a historic budget gap.
The long-awaited second installment of Cook County property tax bills was mailed to property owners on Friday and is due Dec. 15. Across the county, residential and commercial property owners are being billed a total of $19.2 billion, a nearly 5% increase from last year. But the burden is falling unequally.
Read the full story from the Tribune’s A.D. Quig and Illinois Answers Project’s Alex Nitkin.
Here are the top stories you need to know to start your day, including: why your Thanksgiving turkey could cost more this year, 10 thoughts on the Bears’ win over the Vikings and how one musician is mashing up Beethoven and Beyoncé.
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United Airlines aircraft move from the gate at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Nov. 13, 2025, in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
FAA lifts order slashing flights, allowing commercial airlines to resume their regular schedules
The Federal Aviation Administration said yesterday it is lifting all restrictions on commercial flights that were imposed at 40 major airports during the country’s longest government shutdown.
Gov. JB Pritzker talks about recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement tactics and their effect on immigrant families at the Illinois Capitol during the legislative session on Oct. 30, 2025, in Springfield. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)
Gov. JB Pritzker’s Accountability Commission still ramping up as federal immigration surge starts to subside
More than three weeks after Gov. JB Pritzker drew national attention for creating the Illinois Accountability Commission through an executive order, there is no apparent way for members of the public who have experienced or witnessed excessive force or other misconduct by federal immigration agents to report those allegations directly to the commission.
Latino US citizens racially profiled by federal immigration agents in Chicago: ‘I felt like a piece of trash’
Only 2.6% on list of 614 ‘Operation Midway Blitz’ arrestees had criminal histories, DOJ records show
Bronze turkey hens roam in a fenced grassy area after being fed on Nov. 14, 2025, at All Grass Farms in Dundee. Cliff McConville said his flock has not been affected by bird flu. (Dominic Di Palermo/Chicago Tribune)
Bird flu cases are on the rise again, including 2 million turkeys. Will that affect your Thanksgiving dinner?
Larger turkey-producing states have been hit hard in the past couple of months. Nearly 2 million turkeys have been affected by bird flu across the country since August, accounting for roughly 24% of all new cases in commercial and backyard flocks, even though turkeys only account for approximately 2% of the U.S. poultry inventory.
According to experts, the disease — combined with a drop of almost 10% in turkey meat production from last year, rising labor costs and lower overall consumer demand throughout the year — is triggering higher prices for wholesale and fresh turkeys just ahead of the holiday season.
Ross and Paula Fortini, of Libertyville, on Nov. 6, 2025. They have insurance through the Affordable Care Act exchange. If enhanced subsidies aren’t extended after the end of this year, their monthly insurance premiums will more than triple. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)
Illinois consumers face high health insurance prices, with Obamacare subsidies still in limbo after shutdown
Selling a car. Moving homes. Cutting back on grocery spending.
They’re among the options Ross and Paula Fortini are considering if they have to pay for health insurance next year without subsidies from the federal government. The Libertyville couple’s health insurance through the Affordable Care Act exchange is set to more than triple — to more than $2,200 a month — if enhanced subsidies aren’t extended beyond the end of this year.
Bau Graves, then the executive director of the Old Town School of Folk Music, holds one of John Lennon’s guitars, a Martin D-28, on Oct. 4, 2013. (Alex Garcia/Chicago Tribune)
James ‘Bau’ Graves, former executive director of the Old Town School of Folk Music, dies at 73
James “Bau” Graves was the executive director of Chicago’s Old Town School of Folk Music for more than 11 years, steering the venerable institution in the North Side’s Lincoln Square neighborhood through a major expansion.
Graves, 73, died of heart failure on Sept. 26 at his home in Harpswell, Maine, said his wife, Phyllis O’Neill.
Valparaiso University’s first Lutheran president, William H.T. Dau, is joined by faculty members in this 1926 portrait. (Valparaiso University Archives & Special Collections/provided)
Valparaiso University marks 100 years of Lutheran control
One hundred years ago, the Lutheran University Association purchased a struggling Valparaiso University and made it what it is today.
Keith Kinzleo of Joliet stands with a sign of Ben Johnson and celebrates a Bears touchdown in the first half against the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Nov. 16, 2025, in Minneapolis. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)
Ben Johnson’s Chicago Bears keep flipping the script in crucial moments: Brad Biggs’ 10 thoughts on Week 11
Pretty soon, even a creative screenwriter would run out of new and inventive ways for the Bears to win in dramatic fashion.
In stopping, at least for one game, a long trend of losing to NFC North foes, the Bears continued a run of pulling out victories in the final moments. Cairo Santos’ 48-yard field-goal attempt sailed through the uprights with no time remaining, lifting the Bears to a 19-17 victory over the Minnesota Vikings.
Week 11 recap: Bears beat Vikings 19-17 on Cairo Santos’ 48-yard FG as time expires
After Bears special teams had its miscues, returner Devin Duvernay found ‘a moment to make a play’
Audrey Billings, Brandon Dahlquist, Michael Mahler and Dara Cameron in “It’s a Wonderful Life: Live in Chicago!” by American Blues Theater in 2023. (Michael Brosilow)
Top 10 holiday shows in Chicago for 2025: Are you Scrooge, George Bailey or Jinkx this year?
Since it snowed, and froze, long before Thanksgiving this year, you won’t need any help to put yourself in the mood for holiday attractions. Here is our annual guide to the theater of the festive season.
Composer, conductor and producer Steve Hackman is presenting “Beethoven X Beyoncé” with the Chicago Philharmonic and guest musicians at the Harris Theater. (James Mountford)
Mashing up classical and pop with ‘Beethoven X Beyoncé’ at Harris Theater
Composer, conductor and producer Steve Hackman is breaking down barriers between the classical and pop music worlds, one orchestral reimagination at a time.
And for the first time, the Chicago-area native will return to his home city to lead the performance of his latest cross-genre work, “Beethoven X Beyoncé.” The 75-minute piece, performed by the Chicago Philharmonic and guest musicians, is a two-act fusion of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 7 with 15 Beyoncé songs.
Thanksgiving at Di Pescara. (Anjali Pinto)
Thanksgiving 2025: 70 Chicago restaurants offering dine in or take out holiday meals
Preparing Thanksgiving dinner can be an enormous hassle, involving spending all day in the kitchen keeping track of different cooking times for sides and the turkey to ensure that everything is warm and ready to go on the table. You can remove much of the stress and get to just enjoy your feast by picking up a ready-made meal from a Chicago restaurant or even a version where most of the work is done for you and you just have to roast the bird, filling the kitchen with delicious smells.
Thanksgiving 2025: 36 Chicago restaurants and bakeries offering pies and dessert
Ben Johnson’s Chicago Bears keep flipping the script in crucial moments: Brad Biggs’ 10 thoughts on Week 11
MINNEAPOLIS — Pretty soon, even a creative screenwriter would run out of new and inventive ways for the Chicago Bears to win in dramatic fashion.
In stopping, at least for one game, a long trend of losing to NFC North foes, the Bears continued a run of pulling out victories in the final moments. Cairo Santos’ 48-yard field-goal attempt sailed through the uprights with no time remaining, lifting the Bears to a 19-17 victory over the Minnesota Vikings.
10 thoughts after the Bears improved to 7-3 — their best record through 10 games since winning the division in 2018.
1. The Bears were 3-18 in their last 21 division games, including a 27-24 loss to these Vikings in Week 1 and a 31-point beatdown the next week in Detroit.
They blew that first game to Minnesota, coughing up an 11-point lead entering the fourth quarter. While there was nothing pretty about this game and no style points were earned, there also won’t be any apologies for winning as players who’ve been around for even a little while know the many, many ways this organization used to find to lose narrow games.
This is a much different team from the Bears of the first two weeks, and thus they were able to avoid what would have been an embarrassing loss. Devin Duvernay’s 56-yard kickoff return — his longest of the season — put Cairo Santos close to his range for the winner, making him just the most recent late-game hero.
It’s the fifth time in the last seven games the Bears have scored the go-ahead points in the final two minutes.
Josh Blackwell blocked a field goal in Las Vegas with 33 seconds remaining in Week 4 after D’Andre Swift’s 2-yard touchdown run with 1:34 remaining had put the Bears ahead. That was the beginning of a roller coaster of wild endings.
After the bye week, Jake Moody — filling in for the injured Santos — nailed a 38-yard field goal as time expired for a 25-24 victory at Washington.
Rookie tight end Colston Loveland scored on a 58-yard touchdown pass with 17 seconds remaining two weeks ago in Cincinnati. Last week it was Caleb Williams running in from 17 yards out with 1:54 left to finish off the New York Giants.
“Seven-and-three is nothing to scoff at,” coach Ben Johnson said. “As ugly as it can be at times, this group has just proven time and time again that when it’s close there in the fourth quarter that we’re capable of finding a way.”
Bears coach Ben Johnson looks on from the sideline in the first quarter against the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Nov. 16, 2025. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
The record is nothing to scoff at. The record of the teams the Bears have defeated is another story. The seven teams the Bears have beaten are a combined 19-50-1 with the Raiders (2-7) hosting the Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) on Monday night. The Bears’ strength of victory is a ridiculously low .279.
Johnson didn’t select the schedule when he was hired, though. He did set out to change the culture, and that’s one of the intangible areas where the Bears have improved. This team has been poised in crucial situations, where the Bears previously were almost always good for a few flabbergasting moments to give away games.
This game shouldn’t have been nearly this close. The Bears ran 73 offensive plays to 54 for the Vikings. That led to a nearly 14-minute advantage in time of possession.
The Bears finished plus-two in turnover margin as free safety Kevin Byard III got his NFL-leading fifth interception of the season and Nahshon Wright made a pick in the end zone. Both were the result of terrible throws by J.J. McCarthy. Minnesota converted only 3 of 11 third downs (27.3%), and the Bears limited the Vikings to 265 total yards.
Add up all of that, and this should have been a two-score game at the end. McCarthy, in his fifth NFL start, had completed 10 of 24 passes for 74 yards when the Vikings took possession on their 15-yard line with 3:14 remaining. All he did was march his team right downfield. He converted a fourth-and-5 pass at midfield and then some chunk completions before Jordan Addison was open for a 15-yard touchdown.
It was much too easy for the Vikings to go downfield, but Minnesota left too much time on the clock for the Bears. Duvernay flipped the field and Johnson was able to call a couple of running plays to get in proper range for the winner after Santos had missed wide left from 45 yards earlier in the fourth quarter.
“That’s who he is,” Johnson said. “He is a high-percentage field-goal kicker anyway. I’ve got a lot of confidence in him. He’s proven that over the course of the season and really he’s been doing this for a long time. He doesn’t let things — one miss — faze him. We know it’s highly likely he’ll make the next one. So he really kind of embodies what we are as a team. Very resilient.”
That resiliency has been the story of the season to this point. The Bears have battled through injuries, especially on defense, and continue to deal with inconsistencies on offense. Whether it was having to deal with pressure from Brian Flores’ defense or something else, it wasn’t a great game for Williams. He completed 16 of 32 passes for 193 yards. The chunk plays that had come in recent weeks were harder to find, especially when he was outside of the pocket.
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His completion percentage for the season has dipped to 59.7%. But he’s taking care of the football and he has had the hot hand in previous rallies.
“Hard to say,” Johnson said when asked to evaluate Williams’ play. “I’ve got to look at the tape.”
The closer you look at how the Bears have finished off some of these games, a lot of names deserve credit. The offensive line absolutely has to be mentioned for improved protection all season and a now-robust ground game.
That gives the Bears reason for confidence, that it’s spreading to all areas of the locker room. But it doesn’t look like a sustainable formula, certainly not when they encounter better teams. The Vikings (4-6) have the best record of any team the Bears have defeated.
“You can’t apologize for winning, but we haven’t developed that killer instinct just yet,” Byard said. “We had so many opportunities in the third and fourth quarter to be able to really put that team away. When you have an opponent like that and especially with a coach like that, for as talented as that team is, you give them opportunities to keep chopping wood and they’re eventually going to make a play at the end.”
Would this effort beat a better opponent?
“Personally, I don’t want to find out,” Byard said. “That’s why I am saying we have to continue to develop that killer instinct because, you know, I hate to try to use what my dog A.J. (Brown) is saying in Philly, but you don’t want to keep slapping a Band-Aid on these types of things.”
That’s a reference to Brown, with whom Byard played for the Tennessee Titans, publicly venting about the Eagles’ ongoing offensive struggles.
“If we’re really focused on winning and doing our job, we can’t just keep slapping a Band-Aid over the defense doing their job and getting us out of trouble,” Brown told Philadelphia media. “At what point are we going to pick up our slack as an offense?”
At what point will the Bears not need a score in the final two minutes to pull out a win?
“You want to be able to play better and not continuously be in this situation,” Byard said. “But we are battle-tested. Last year, how many times were we in these one-score games and losing? That’s the difference. We’re going to have to win a few of these. We just don’t want to have to win as many (like this).”
2. It looked like an old-fashioned counter on Devin Duvernay’s 56-yard kickoff return to set up the victory.
Bears’ Devin Duvernay runs back a kickoff for positive field position late in the fourth quarter of a game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Nov. 16, 2025. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
Special teams coordinator Richard Hightower has consistently said the group has been close to hitting a big return. A holding penalty on Jahdae Walker wiped out a 52-yard return at Cincinnati two weeks ago. There have been a couple of other spots where he’s been one block or missed tackle away from getting out.
Reality, too, is that it’s a new adventure every week for special teams coaches around the league as they adjust to the dynamic kickoff rules. They’re reviewing their own game tape and then they’re looking at what everyone else has done for tips, clues or ideas. It’s a copycat league for a reason.
We’ll see what Hightower has to say later this week but it looked like a counter, one that was set up nicely with some earlier returns in the game, including a 30-yarder by Josh Blackwell that was very close to being much longer.
On this play, Blackwell was the off-returner and he blocked the No. 1, or coverage player on the far right for the return team, Vikings safety Tavierre Thomas. That didn’t happen until Duvernay pressed the return up the middle with the front line inviting the coverage team on the inside. The Bears set up as if it were a left return and had Duvernay break it back across the field.
“Just the design of the play,” Duvernay said. “Design of the play where it’s supposed to hit. And we executed it almost perfectly.”
Running back Travis Homer had a nice block on 6-foot-5, 290-pound defensive lineman Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins in the middle of the formation. He did enough to turn Ingram-Dawkins away from the play and hold him off.
Closer to the point of attack, safety Elijah Hicks and linebacker Amen Ogbongbemiga double-teamed outside linebacker Tyler Batty. That block was completed at about the same instant Blackwell arrived and kicked out Thomas, opening a huge alley.
“We knew the ball was going to bounce to the right,” Hicks said. “(Blackwell) had a similar return that damn near he hit. The dude (Batty) that almost got (Duvernay), I let him go at the perfect time. Because, you know, they throw flags on that play like a mother.
“The return was going for a long time and I was like, ‘All right, even though I am in the double, when the dudes start to move and re-direct, you’ve got to let go.’ So, in my head as he was moving, I was like, ‘let me just let go.’ That was my thinking. It’s a game of inches. It’s crazy. (Duvernay) hit it so hard. Dude had no chance to re-direct and grab him. It was a team effort.”
It looked like the Bears also tinkered with how they had players on the front line for the final return. That’s not out of the ordinary. It’s just like a wide receiver moves to different areas of the formation on different plays. Hightower does the same thing on occasion with his players when hunting specific matchups or in a bid to set up a certain type of return or even coverage.
Now, two weeks after a bad special teams effort at Cincinnati, the Bears were pretty darn good here. Not perfect, far from it. Cairo Santos pulled a 45-yarder wide left earlier in the fourth quarter. But he hit a season-long 54-yarder in the third quarter that looked like it would have been good from probably 60. He also made 34- and 33-yarders. Santos did a terrific job with kickoffs. Minnesota’s average starting field position on kickoffs was its own 23-yard line.
Bears kicker Cairo Santos stares at the uprights before kicking a filed goal in the second half against the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Nov. 16, 2025, in Minneapolis. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)
But Myles Price got loose for a 43-yard punt return that enabled the Vikings to have a two-play, 24-yard touchdown drive. As usual, there’s stuff to fix and this unit’s miscues were one of the reasons the Bears were backed against the wall with 50 seconds to play when Duvernay fielded the kickoff.
“We’re always confident,” Blackwell said. “It’s never like we’re not confident about stuff. (Duvernay) has the juice. We just have to get him free. We blocked everything right and he had to make one cut and go. He’s been a Pro Bowler for a reason.”
Duvernay reached the Vikings’ 40-yard line.
“We absolutely needed that,” Ben Johnson said. “He had kind of been waiting for one of those, to be honest with you. He’s come really close a number of times and then he was able to capture it and got us right there on the cuff of field goal range.”
The Bears were close enough to run it three times and send Santos on for the final play. Now, the Vikings can answer the kind of question that has popped up for the Bears earlier this season: Why didn’t they go for a touchback to eliminate the possibility of a big return?
3. It will be interesting to learn how Ben Johnson evaluates Caleb Williams and the passing offense.
Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze can’t catch an overthrown ball by quarterback Caleb Williams in the first quarter during a game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Nov. 16, 2025, in Minneapolis. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)
The Bears won’t have to deal with the constant unknown of going against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores again this season. After not pressuring as much as expected in the first meeting, it looked like Minnesota amped things up.
Williams finished 16 of 32 for 192 yards. He ran four times for 26 yards, including a 16-yard gain in the third quarter. He was sacked twice. A week after bad hands hurt the Bears, there might have been only one blatant drop for a big play. DJ Moore came open on an in-breaker on a second-and-13 play late in the fourth quarter. He just didn’t make the catch. Fortunately, Colston Loveland did pull in the ball that came his way on third down and then broke tackle efforts by safeties Josh Metellus and Harrison Smith to gain 24 yards.
A handful of the incomplete passes you can chalk up to scrambles where Williams made the right decision. No question. Were there checkdown targets available sooner in a few of the plays? We’ll see. Every quarterback deals with these kinds of things and Williams’ completion percentage is dipping, now to 59.7%.
He was particularly off on some deep balls early in the game. Rome Odunze had a step on the first third down of the game. A perfect throw was needed. It wasn’t close. DJ Moore was open deep on the second series on third down. It was an interesting play. The Bears had three tight ends on the field with Moore and Odunze. The deep corner route was wide open by NFL standards and it wasn’t close.
“He still misses on the deep balls,” said a pro scout, who has watched Williams last season and this year. “That remains an issue for him. You can almost count on it that he’s going to sail those specific throws. He’s gotten better at some of the other ones. But deep corner routes? He’s missing those by a lot.”
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams points up filed after escaping being tackled by Vikings defensive tackle Jalen Redmond in the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium on Nov. 16, 2025, in Minneapolis. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)
Williams specifically said the Vikings were more aggressive with corner blitzes.
“We were able to pick it up or get the ball out or I would see him and throw hot or throw a checkdown,” he said. “I think overall we did a good job with that and that was one of the wrinkles. He has a bunch more wrinkles that he’s thrown in there. He had a couple times throughout the game, dropping back, you’re trying to figure out the coverage and a bunch of different guys are flying in different areas. It’s always fun playing versus (Flores) because he’s such a good D-coordinator and he has such good talent over there. Lot of respect for them.”
With all the pressure Minnesota sent, the Bears weren’t able to make them play with anything big, over the top. An offense that has produced a ton of explosive plays of late was held in check. When the quarterback’s completion percentage isn’t ideal but he’s hitting chunk plays, that balances out. It didn’t balance out here, but Williams didn’t turn the ball over and did do a heck of a job keeping the sack number at two instead of something more like five.
4. When this season ends, folks are going to take a look at the Vikings and point out they ended 2024 with Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones on their roster.
Bears middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (49) tries to block the pass of Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy on a fourth down play late in the fourth quarter of a game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Nov. 16, 2025. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
I’m not faulting their process and I’m not going to pretend to know everything that went on in the decisions they made. I doubt there are a lot of folks out there who were seriously floating the franchise tag as an option for Darnold. Short of that, free agency is a two-way street.
But, boy, the Vikings have gone from a 14-win team to one that’s scuffling and just about to the point where they will be playing out the string. That might not be fair to J.J. McCarthy, drafted in the first round in 2024 before a knee injury shelved him as a rookie, but life isn’t always fair to quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
McCarthy was bad in this game. He’s struggled for the majority of his five starts this season. His best ball probably came in the fourth quarter of the opener at Soldier Field. The Vikings ran the ball well enough to support him here too. They had 22 carries for 115 yards (5.2 average) but they couldn’t stay on the field.
McCarthy was missing targets by so much that the Fox broadcast crew could have used the late, great Bob Uecker in the booth today.
“Juuuuust a bit outside.”
At one point, McCarthy put both his hands on his head after one errant throw. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who has been pretty restrained to this point, looked ready to blow on the sideline.
Like Williams, McCarthy was 16 of 32 for 150 yards and he didn’t get any sort of groove until the final possession. It’s not like he was under the kind of pressure the Vikings threw at Williams, either.
Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is pressured by Bears cornerback Nahshon Wright (26) and safety Kevin Byard III during the second half at U.S. Bank Stadium on Nov. 16, 2025, in Minneapolis. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)
His two interceptions were really bad throws. Kevin Byard baited him a little on the first throw but it was bad. McCarthy was intercepted on the next possession right before halftime when Jordan Addison had Nahshon Wright beat in the end zone and the ball was underthrown right before halftime.
Make that throw and it’s a touchdown. That’s the one thing Wright has. He’s got exceptional length at 6-foot-4. Guys like that, when they’re trailing and sort of in position, they can recover where a shorter defensive back cannot. But only if the ball is underthrown. If that play is to the upfield shoulder, there’s nothing Wright can do. It’s an easy touchdown.
“We did a lot of the things that we talked about not doing and the main thing being the turnovers. Gotta take a look at them, obviously,” Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said. “But I was proud of the way we ran the ball, tried to stick with it as much as we could. For the most part the guys up front, I felt like we protected. We limited the negatives for the most part, we just felt like we were a play away all day.
“Felt like we were one or two pitch and catches away from maybe having a little bit of a different dynamic to the game throughout.”
O’Connell has done great work with quarterbacks since he took over in Minnesota. It’s still early with McCarthy and he’s missed so much time — all of 2024 and then a big chunk of this season with a high ankle sprain. The coach has his work cut out for him because this was reflective of struggles McCarthy has had when he’s been on the field.
And everybody knows it who is watching with sober eyes. Emmanuel Acho tried to gas up McCarthy for having that “clutch gene” after the touchdown drive late in the game. It was a nice drive.
Vikings Hall of Fame wide receiver Cris Carter, who was at the game, provided some perspective.
“Did you watch the first 59 mins?” Carter wrote in a social media post. He also added a thumbs down and that about summed it up.
5. The run the Bears are on is a good reminder of why teams strive to keep a quality backup quarterback on the roster.
Bears quarterbacks Caleb Williams, right, and Tyson Bagent have a laugh as they warm up for a game against the Vikings on Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
It’s something you can keep in the back of your mind almost weekly with the way the schedule has fallen. Now, Aaron Rodgers’ status for Sunday’s game at Soldier Field is up in the air. The Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback sat out the second half of a 34-12 win over the Cincinnati Bengals with a left wrist injury that will be further evaluated Monday.
If Rodgers can’t go Sunday, the list of opposing quarterbacks in a six-week span would look like this:
Week 7: Spencer Rattler, Saints
Week 8: Tyler Huntley, Ravens
Week 9: Joe Flacco, Bengals
Week 10: Jaxson Dart, Giants
Week 11: J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
Week 12: Mason Rudolph, Steelers
It was the 13th start of Rattler’s career, and the Bears intercepted him three times. He got the start the following week and then was sent to the bench, replaced by rookie Tyler Shough. Then the Bears missed two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow in consecutive weeks. That’s the kind of run of luck usually associated with table games in Las Vegas, right?
They caught the rookie Dart making his seventh start and then McCarthy in his fifth career start. Rudolph has been around for a while. He’s on his second go-round with the Steelers.
The Bears obviously feel pretty good about their No. 2. That’s why they went to Tyson Bagent before the season with a contract extension, giving the former undrafted free agent a nice pay bump to stand ready behind Caleb Williams.
As I mentioned in the top item, the Bears are 7-3 for the first time since 2018. They were also 7-3 to begin the 2011 season but missed the playoffs. Jay Cutler suffered a broken thumb, and when Caleb Hanie was pressed into action, he couldn’t deliver. The Bears lost five straight games to slide out of postseason contention. It was at least a factor in general manager Jerry Angelo being fired.
The Steelers will try to hang on with Rudolph if he has to replace Rodgers, and the Bears could be the beneficiary. It makes you realize there’s something to be said for Williams’ durability. He has started 27 consecutive games. It’s definitely different when it’s the opponents riding the QB carousel with regularity and not the Bears.
6. The Bears might have a chance this week to do something they’ve done only once in the last decade: beat Aaron Rodgers.
Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers looks on during a game on Nov. 16, 2025, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)
Perhaps it’s dwindling now because of his injury situation. If healthy, the future Hall of Fame quarterback will lead the Steelers into Soldier Field on Sunday for what likely would be the 41-year-old’s final appearance against the Bears. I’m guessing that if you asked Chairman George McCaskey, he’d very much prefer to face Rodgers on Sunday. But that’s just a hunch.
More so than any other opponent I’ve covered, Rodgers has a deep appreciation for the history of the Bears, the Bears-Packers rivalry and Chicago sports in general. He’s not unlike Ben Johnson in that he has noted how, as a youngster, he grew up watching Cubs and Bulls games on WGN-TV.
“I’ve been a fan of Chicago sports for a while,” Rodgers said before a December 2022 game at Soldier Field, the last time he faced the Bears. “I have a lot of respect for the city and the legacy of excellence that the team and the region has. I always enjoy playing against the Bears.”
Over the years, Rodgers was quite open and direct in praising Lovie Smith, Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, Vic Fangio, Eddie Jackson and more recently Jaylon Johnson. When I visited with Rodgers during training camp back in 2017, I asked what he thought about Urlacher’s candidacy for the Hall of Fame.
“Brian Urlacher should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer,” he said. “He is one of my favorites if not my favorite (opponent) … because he is hypercompetitive. He is a tough human and he does it the right way. He plays with a lot of passion, lot of grit and a lot of class. I always enjoyed our battles.”
Bears fans have come to loathe Rodgers because, well, they got tired of seeing him beat their team time and again. Rodgers is 25-5 as a starter against the Bears, including the postseason, with 12 wins in his last 13 starts.
There was the infamous moment after he scored on a 6-yard run in the 2021 meeting at Soldier Field when cameras caught him saying, “I own you. …. I still own you.” I left an expletive out of the quote because this is a family publication.
“Sometimes you black out on the field, in a good way,” Rodgers said. “But I looked up in the stands and in the front row, all I saw was a woman giving me the double bird. So I’m not sure exactly what came out of my mouth next.”
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers on the field after a win over the Bears on Dec. 4, 2022, at Soldier Field. (Erin Hooley/Chicago Tribune)
There was a fun story in the Green Bay Press-Gazette about a chance encounter a young Mount Prospect boy and his mom had with Rodgers walking downtown the night before a Packers-Bears game in 2017. The boy, 11 at the time, recognized Rodgers at a busy crosswalk. They started chatting with him and spent 20 minutes walking with him.
Bears secondary coach Al Harris, who is in the Packers Hall of Fame, was playing in Green Bay when Rodgers was drafted in 2005 and when he replaced Brett Favre in 2008.
“Man, let me tell you, a lot of things that I preach and talk about now, I saw as a player looking at that guy,” Harris said of Rodgers. “Looking at (Rodgers), Brett Favre and those guys and how they went about their business, their reads and things like that. For him to still be playing at a high level and to have been in the league this long, hats off to him.”
Harris got a good idea of what kind of player Rodgers would be long before Favre took off for the New York Jets and eventually wrapped up his career in Minnesota.
“He was the scout-team quarterback, so I saw it early,” Harris said. “I saw the no-look passes, the arm talent. I witnessed it. I saw this movie early.”
The first start of safety Kevin Byard III’s career came in Week 10 in 2016. The Tennessee Titans were hosting the Packers.
“Dick LeBeau was our coordinator and he called a safety blitz,” Byard said. “I was so amped up. I didn’t have a celebration or anything and I did some weird leg kick. To get a sack against Aaron Rodgers was special.”
Tight end Cole Kmet recalled his rookie season in 2020 at Lambeau Field, where, because of COVID-19 restrictions, there were no fans in the stadium. He described it as surreal to hear Rodgers pushing back on coach Matt LaFleur about certain play calls and essentially running his own show at times. From the Bears sideline, with no crowd noise, you could hear everything.
Green Packers’ Aaron Rodgers passes against the Bears’ Julius Peppers, Stephen Paea and Brian Urlacher in the second quarter at Lambeau Field in Green Bay on Sept. 13, 2012. (Scott Strazzante/Chicago Tribune)
“I was like, ‘Holy (smokes)! This is amazing,’” Kmet said. “I was 9 years old in 2008 (when Rodgers replaced Favre). Much respect to him. He’s an all-time great. Probably the most talented quarterback to ever play in terms of arm talent and escapability, all that stuff.”
Rodgers has contemplated the possibility of his final appearance at Soldier Field in the past. His recall of plays is next level and always has been. He can even cite pregame moments with a high degree of accuracy.
“I’ve had a lot of great moments in this place,” Rodgers said after the 2022 game. “As much as the fans don’t really like me, I do have respect for the city of Chicago and their great sports fans here and the stadium. It’s been a lot of fun over the years to go to battle, win or lose.
“There’s some really cool, like, Chicago moments. Colbie Caillat did the national anthem back in 2010 with, like, a guy on a ukulele. That’s a cool moment. Just night game, the energy, the guy (Jim Cornelison), the baritone that sings. That opera voice. Those are cool moments.
“The in-between timeout stuff that they do here, I’m not crazy about the song. It gets a little old. But there’s a lot of cool things about this sports town and this city and the stadium, and I’ve enjoyed playing here.”
One more time. Maybe.
7. Playoffs? It’s what everyone who is not inside Halas Hall is going to want to talk about.
Keith Kinzleo of Joliet stands with a sign of Ben Johnson and celebrates a Bears touchdown in the first half against the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Nov. 16, 2025, in Minneapolis. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)
“We’re midseason right now,” Ben Johnson said when it was pointed out after the noon slate of games how close his team was to being alone in first place in the division. “So we’re not even looking at that. We’ve earned seven wins so far and we’re really looking for the opportunity to go 1-0 next week.”
That’s what they will preach to the players all week because unless they keep stacking wins, the Bears will not remain atop the NFC North, which is where they found themselves all alone after the Philadelphia Eagles finished their win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday night.
There are nine NFC teams above .500 right now and, having won seven of their last eight, the Bears are a game behind the Eagles and Los Angeles Rams in the conference. Both of those teams are 8-2. If you want to get wild, sure, go ahead and dream about the Bears battling for the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. That seems rather unlikely. But everything is in front of this team.
You could toggle with playoff simulators from now until next month and come up with all sorts of odds and percentages. There’s so much action remaining — seven weeks — and it’s impossible to say how injuries are going to impact teams in the mix.
Here’s what I know: Of the Bears’ remaining seven opponents, only the Cleveland Browns (2-8) are currently below .500. The remaining opponents have a collective winning percentage of .592. That’s the same winning percentage the Packers’ remaining opponents have. Two games with Green Bay in a three-week stretch will be pivotal. Something seems off for the Packers, especially without tight end Tucker Kraft in that offense.
The Lions (6-4) have a slightly easier schedule but it’s not filled with cupcakes. Detroit’s remaining opponents have a .529 winning percentage. Four of the Lions’ next five games are at Ford Field before they close the season at Minnesota and at Soldier Field.
The Bears could have an impactful game with the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17 at Santa Clara, Calif. The Niners are 7-4 and they have the easiest remaining schedule of all the teams I’ve referenced. They host the Carolina Panthers (6-5) this week and then go to Cleveland before a Week 14 bye. The winning percentage of San Francisco’s remaining seven opponents is .508.
We could dive into all of the contenders and schedules. I don’t know that we’d really learn a ton. There’s just too much football remaining to be played to get too deep into it. So, on to Pittsburgh, right?
8. It looked like Andrew Billings got another false start called against an opponent with his “move” call.
Bears defensive tackle Andrew Billings rushes Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels in the first quarter on Oct. 27, 2024, at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)
Minnesota was facing a third-and-2 on its own 38-yard line in the third quarter. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw was flagged before the snap, turning it into a third-and-7 that led to a punt.
Billings got one last week against the Giants when guard Jon Runyan jumped. I don’t know for certain Darrisaw’s head start on the play was because of Billings, but it’s a weapon and something the Bears love to use.
And it’s as simple as Billings calling out “move” before the snap — preferably right before it — to signal his teammates to shift laterally. It’s been in football forever. It’s perfectly legal. And Billings is very effective at it.
“As the game goes along, you get a feel for the snaps,” Billings said. “You get a feel for the cadence and what formation they’re really going to run out of. Sometimes there’s a motion. If the quarterback is doing this (motioning behind his back), he’s not going to snap it. He’s getting a receiver to move. After that happens, then you do it. It’s gotta be timed. It’s pretty much gotta be late (right before the snap).”
It’s not whenever Billings wants to call it. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will tag his call with a move. Players get that relayed pre-snap. Allen picks and chooses his spots and looks for bigger spots in the game. Defensive line coach Jeremy Garrett said on average, it’s maybe called two or three times each week and usually not early in the game because it takes Billings a while to get a feel for the quarterback and how he’s operating. In order to scout it, the Bears will watch TV copies of opponents — not just the All-22 film.
Garrett saw Billings put it to work on film when he was watching last season after arriving. Billings said he drew five false starts in 2024.
“The move call, honestly, I get more tight ends than offensive linemen,” Billings said. “Because linemen are keyed into the cadence. It’s mostly tight ends. It’s become a part of my game. I’m not going to lie.”
9. Eyebrows were raised when Jaylon Johnson returned to practice Friday for the first time since undergoing core muscle surgery and was listed as limited and questionable for Sunday’s game.
Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson smiles as he chats with officials during a commercial in the second half against the Viking at U.S Bank Stadium on Dec. 16, 2024, in Minneapolis. The Vikings beat the Bears 30–12. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)
Johnson was about as questionable as Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was a full participant in practices before they played the Bears last month. The difference, of course, was the Ravens were (apparently unknowingly) skirting league rules for injury reports. The Bears did nothing wrong by labeling Johnson as questionable and then downgrading him to out less than 24 hours later.
But it raises a legitimate question: What’s a timeline for the two-time Pro Bowl cornerback to be back on the field? Instinct tells me the Bears will want more than just three days of practice this week before the Steelers come to Soldier Field to get him ready.
He has missed two months and, remember, Johnson was sidelined for all of training camp and the preseason too. Every injury situation is treated differently, but it’s at least worth noting the team was conservative with defensive end Austin Booker and linebacker Amen Ogbongbemiga coming back off IR. Both used the entire 21-day practice window, although, at least in the case of Booker, the team felt like it had some depth at defensive end and roster needs in other places.
If Johnson doesn’t suit up against the Steelers, then you’re looking at the Nov. 28 game in Philadelphia in Week 13 or the Dec. 7 game at Lambeau Field against the Packers. What could be tricky about the Eagles game is I don’t know what kind of practice schedule the team will hold with a rare Friday game. Is there a light practice during the week, or will Ben Johnson opt for more walk-throughs, which is what teams normally do in preparation for Thursday games?
“You probably need a couple weeks from the football conditioning standpoint and the movement perspective,” a pro scout told me. “The hardest thing when you miss that much time with an injury and come back as a defensive back is the lower-body soreness you get when you first get back on the field. It’s hard to get your legs conditioned to change directions, to stop and start and not knowing when you have to stop and start because you play defensive back. As a defensive back you have to make so many sharp, sudden moves instantly.
“His hip mobility has to be on. I don’t have any idea what kind of running he’s been able to do before getting back to practice, but I would guess he’s going to need at least two weeks of practice where you’re going at top speed. The next part is he hasn’t hit anyone for a long time. Anyone can run, run hills, sprint, do treadmill work. Until you start hitting, that physical impact is different.
“From a selfish coaching perspective, that Eagles game would be the one game you want him back for. I don’t think Chicago has anyone right now that can body up A.J. Brown. He really takes advantage of DBs with smaller frames and ones that don’t play physical. You saw it against Minnesota. Byron Murphy and those guys couldn’t handle him. They’re just not strong enough.”
Brown has been plenty outspoken about the number of opportunities he’s getting in the Eagles offense this season. But he was targeted six times in that game against the Vikings last month and had four catches for 121 yards and two touchdowns.
He torched the Bears the last time he played them, catching nine passes (16 targets) for 181 yards in a 25-20 Philadelphia win Dec. 18, 2022, at Soldier Field. That’s the most receiving yards an opponent has had against the Bears since Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown went for 196 in a 2013 game. A.J. Brown had four catches for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Bears when he was with Tennessee in 2020.
Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown catches the ball against Lions cornerback Rock Ya-Sin during the first half on Nov. 16, 2025, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Terrance Williams)
Could Tyrique Stevenson potentially handle Brown in certain situations?
“He could,” the scout said. “But I don’t think he possesses the top-end speed like Jaylon does, and that’s where it could be a mismatch. Nahshon Wright could not. A.J. Brown would run through him.”
There’s no question Dennis Allen is looking forward to being able to design game plans that involve Johnson. His availability could bring with it more options in the secondary.
“Just consider what he can do facing trips when there are three receivers to one side of the field,” the scout said. “If you can lock that back-side X in single coverage using Johnson, now you get the flexibility of pushing that boundary safety to the front side. It opens up everything for you.
“Now, the offense can’t run those deep in-breakers and crossers because the defense has someone waiting there. You can bracket the receivers on the front side. There are so many things the defensive coordinator can do if he’s got the confidence that he can take away that boundary receiver. That’s one thing Johnson can do when he’s in football shape and ready to go.”
10. I wrote last week that, excluding the 2023 trade for Montez Sweat and special teams moves, I couldn’t recall a player added to the roster during the season who made an immediate impact like C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Bears safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson tackles Vikings tight end Josh Oliver in the first quarter of a game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Nov. 16, 2025. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
I checked in with some former Bears players from the past two decades. They were stumped as well.
Gardner-Johnson had four tackles, one for a loss and one quarterback hit against the Vikings. Last week, he had two sacks and a forced fumble in the victory over the Giants. The Bears found a perfect fit for their nickel cornerback need with a former Dennis Allen player on the street.
At least now I have a marquee name to offer in terms of an in-season acquisition who was immediately impactful, thanks to an email from discerning reader Tom Nichols.
Nichols pointed out that the Vikings released Alan Page after the first six games of the 1978 season. They felt his passion for running had led him to lose too much weight to remain effective. The Bears claimed Page on waivers the next day. He had 11 1/2 sacks (before it was an official statistic) in the final 10 games. The future Hall of Fame defensive tackle totaled 40 sacks in 58 games over four seasons with the Bears to complete his distinguished career.
Page was bound for the Hall of Fame — the first Canton, Ohio, native to be enshrined — before he got to the Bears. But they sure got immediate results from the move for a defense that Buddy Ryan was just beginning to construct.
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Gardner-Johnson doesn’t have the same career arc, but he has helped — so much so that there are already questions about what kind of role he will play when Kyler Gordon returns to the field.
That’s probably a few weeks away. This was the fourth game Gordon missed on IR, so the team can open the window for him to return to practice any day. Given that he has missed eight of 10 games and has been listed with calf, hamstring and groin injuries, they will likely ramp him up with some caution to prevent yet another setback.
“There’s probably a lot of things we could do,” secondary coach Al Harris said. “But that’s just a bridge we’ve got to cross when we get there.”
Gardner-Johnson could potentially be used as a dime safety. We’ll see how it plays out. First, Gordon has to be back on the field.
10a. As much as I wrote about targeting tight ends earlier in the season, I’d be remiss to not mention that they accounted for 12 of Caleb Williams’ 28 targets. Cole Kmet caught all five targets for 45 yards. Colston Loveland had three catches on four targets for 40 yards and Durham Smythe hauled in one of three targets for 8 yards.
It’s possible they were hot reads and going against the pressure, but Williams did a better job of using them as outlet receivers. It was notable to see the ball going their way that often.
10b. My unofficial snap count had rookie wide receiver Luther Burden at 35 plays, including those wiped out by penalties. So, that’s about where it was last week. As some wondered, Olamide Zaccheaus’ action took a hit. He had some bad drops against the Giants and I only counted 10 snaps for him. He was not targeted.
10c. This was the first game the Bears have not gone for it on at least one fourth down. They are 6 for 14 on fourth down on the season. That led to six punts for Tory Taylor, which tied a season-high.
10d. The CBS crew of Ian Eagle, J.J. Watt and Evan Washburn will call Sunday’s game against the Steelers at Soldier Field. It’s the second Bears game the crew will call and the fifth time they will work a Steelers game this season. The savvy veteran Eagle and fast riser Watt are the B crew for CBS and they do a nice job.
“It turns out that the second-best AFC games on CBS every week generally does tend to involve the Pittsburgh Steelers,” Watt said during an appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show” in October before the third Pittsburgh game he called.
Conspiracy nuts probably already have Watt feeding information to his brother T.J., the edge rusher for the Steelers. As we learned during the Raiders/Tom Brady/Fox non-story in September, if J.J. has any worthwhile intel to pass along to his brother, it’s because the Bears had a slip of the lip. I wouldn’t worry about that happening.
10e. The Bears opened as a 2 1/2-point favorite (-120) over the Steelers for Sunday’s game at Soldier Field at Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/17/chicago-bears-10-thoughts-brad-biggs-week-11/











