Category: News
Iran Alleges Series Of ‘False Flags’ – Including On Kuwait Water Plant – Designed To Perpetuate War
Iran Alleges Series Of ‘False Flags’ – Including On Kuwait Water Plant – Designed To Perpetuate War
The Iranian military denied on Monday being behind the recent attack which hit a desalination plant in Kuwait, labeling the strike a US-Israeli false-flag operation aimed at “destabilizing and destroying the region.”
“The brutal aggression by the Zionist regime against the desalination facility in Kuwait, carried out in recent hours under the pretext of accusing the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a sign of the vileness and depravity of the Zionist occupiers,” the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of the Iranian army said in a statement.
“We declare that US bases, personnel, and their interests in the region, as well as the military, security, and economic infrastructure of the Zionist regime in the occupied Palestinian territories, remain powerful targets for us,” it added.
The Iranian military went on to urge “countries of West Asia must remain vigilant against the sedition of the US–Zionist axis aimed at destabilizing and destroying the region.”
Regional states “must put an end to the presence of the criminal US army and occupying Zionists in the region,” it stressed. The attack on the desalination plant took place on Sunday.
“A service building at a power and water desalination plant was attacked as part of the Iranian aggression against the State of Kuwait, resulting in the death of an Indian worker and significant material damage to the building,“ said a spokesperson for the Kuwaiti Electricity Ministry.
This is not the first attack Tehran has labeled a false flag. Iran has also denied recent strikes on fuel tankers in Oman and a refinery in Iraq’s Erbil, as well as one that targeted an Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia at the start of the month.
US journalist Tucker Carlson reported earlier in March that Mossad agents were detained in Gulf states for planning bombings.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on March 15 that the US has been using its new Lucas drone – modeled after the Iranian Shahed – to carry out false-flag attacks in the region and attribute them to the Islamic Republic.
Tehran has said only US and Israeli-linked military and economic assets in the Gulf will be struck by its forces. Iran is warning Gulf governments against allowing Washington to use their bases for attacks on the Islamic Republic.
Iranian drone and missile strikes targeted the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27, wounding at least 12 US troops and damaging aircraft and buildings.
A senior Iranian intelligence official told The Cradle on March 26 that the Islamic Republic is preparing a “strong response” against the UAE due to the “active role” it has played in the US-Israeli war on it.
Roughly 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water comes from desalination.
“A decision has been made at the leadership level to end the weeks-long tolerance toward this country. In addition to US military barracks and bases in the UAE, which were targeted in Iran’s defensive attacks, the Emiratis also provided some of their own air bases to the US to be used in attacking Iran,” the intelligence officials went on to say, citing security reports.
“The UAE is considered a foothold for Israel in the region,” the source continued, adding that Abu Dhabi has “carried out misleading operations against Oman and other countries” – likely a reference to false-flag operations pinned on Iran.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2026 – 11:05
Iran Alleges Series Of ‘False Flags’ – Including On Kuwait Water Plant – Designed To Perpetuate War
Iran Alleges Series Of ‘False Flags’ – Including On Kuwait Water Plant – Designed To Perpetuate War
The Iranian military denied on Monday being behind the recent attack which hit a desalination plant in Kuwait, labeling the strike a US-Israeli false-flag operation aimed at “destabilizing and destroying the region.”
“The brutal aggression by the Zionist regime against the desalination facility in Kuwait, carried out in recent hours under the pretext of accusing the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a sign of the vileness and depravity of the Zionist occupiers,” the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of the Iranian army said in a statement.
“We declare that US bases, personnel, and their interests in the region, as well as the military, security, and economic infrastructure of the Zionist regime in the occupied Palestinian territories, remain powerful targets for us,” it added.
The Iranian military went on to urge “countries of West Asia must remain vigilant against the sedition of the US–Zionist axis aimed at destabilizing and destroying the region.”
Regional states “must put an end to the presence of the criminal US army and occupying Zionists in the region,” it stressed. The attack on the desalination plant took place on Sunday.
“A service building at a power and water desalination plant was attacked as part of the Iranian aggression against the State of Kuwait, resulting in the death of an Indian worker and significant material damage to the building,“ said a spokesperson for the Kuwaiti Electricity Ministry.
This is not the first attack Tehran has labeled a false flag. Iran has also denied recent strikes on fuel tankers in Oman and a refinery in Iraq’s Erbil, as well as one that targeted an Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia at the start of the month.
US journalist Tucker Carlson reported earlier in March that Mossad agents were detained in Gulf states for planning bombings.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on March 15 that the US has been using its new Lucas drone – modeled after the Iranian Shahed – to carry out false-flag attacks in the region and attribute them to the Islamic Republic.
Tehran has said only US and Israeli-linked military and economic assets in the Gulf will be struck by its forces. Iran is warning Gulf governments against allowing Washington to use their bases for attacks on the Islamic Republic.
Iranian drone and missile strikes targeted the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27, wounding at least 12 US troops and damaging aircraft and buildings.
A senior Iranian intelligence official told The Cradle on March 26 that the Islamic Republic is preparing a “strong response” against the UAE due to the “active role” it has played in the US-Israeli war on it.
Roughly 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water comes from desalination.
“A decision has been made at the leadership level to end the weeks-long tolerance toward this country. In addition to US military barracks and bases in the UAE, which were targeted in Iran’s defensive attacks, the Emiratis also provided some of their own air bases to the US to be used in attacking Iran,” the intelligence officials went on to say, citing security reports.
“The UAE is considered a foothold for Israel in the region,” the source continued, adding that Abu Dhabi has “carried out misleading operations against Oman and other countries” – likely a reference to false-flag operations pinned on Iran.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2026 – 11:05
Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Speaks At Harvard University
Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Speaks At Harvard University
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has just over a month left in his tenure as head of the world’s most important central bank, speaks at 10:30am ET to the Harvard University Principles of Economics class. He is not expected to make monetary policy comments.
As CNBC notes, this will be one of Powell’s final scheduled public appearances before his term ends in May. The discussion comes with markets anticipating the central bank will be on hold regarding interest rates through the end of the year.
In his most recent comments, Powell characterized the economy as growing at “a solid pace” and said he is not concerned with worries of stagflation, low growth with high inflation. However, he noted that policymakers are taking a cautious approach as multiple factors play out this year, including the Iran war, tariffs and a stagnant labor market; he flagged frustration over sticky non-housing services and made clear that, if inflation progress does not resume, cuts will not follow.
On rates, Powell kept optionality but did not open the door to near-term easing. He said policy was in a good place, noting it was around the high end of neutral, or only modestly restrictive. He said the labour market was being watched closely, particularly weak private payroll growth, but stopped short of suggesting employment risks now dominate the Fed’s policy balance.
On his role as Fed Chair, Powell said that if a successor had not been confirmed before his term as Chair ends in May, he would remain in place as Fed Chair “Pro Tern”; on his role as Governor beyond that, he said he has no intention of leaving the Board until the DoJ investigation is over, and he he had not yet decided whether he would stay on.
Powell’s term ends officially on May 15, and there is only one more policy meeting between now and then. However, it’s possible he will stay in the position longer if the Senate does not confirm is designated successor, former Governor Kevin Warsh.
Watch live:
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2026 – 10:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-speaks-harvard-university
Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Speaks At Harvard University
Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Speaks At Harvard University
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has just over a month left in his tenure as head of the world’s most important central bank, speaks at 10:30am ET to the Harvard University Principles of Economics class. He is not expected to make monetary policy comments.
As CNBC notes, this will be one of Powell’s final scheduled public appearances before his term ends in May. The discussion comes with markets anticipating the central bank will be on hold regarding interest rates through the end of the year.
In his most recent comments, Powell characterized the economy as growing at “a solid pace” and said he is not concerned with worries of stagflation, low growth with high inflation. However, he noted that policymakers are taking a cautious approach as multiple factors play out this year, including the Iran war, tariffs and a stagnant labor market; he flagged frustration over sticky non-housing services and made clear that, if inflation progress does not resume, cuts will not follow.
On rates, Powell kept optionality but did not open the door to near-term easing. He said policy was in a good place, noting it was around the high end of neutral, or only modestly restrictive. He said the labour market was being watched closely, particularly weak private payroll growth, but stopped short of suggesting employment risks now dominate the Fed’s policy balance.
On his role as Fed Chair, Powell said that if a successor had not been confirmed before his term as Chair ends in May, he would remain in place as Fed Chair “Pro Tern”; on his role as Governor beyond that, he said he has no intention of leaving the Board until the DoJ investigation is over, and he he had not yet decided whether he would stay on.
Powell’s term ends officially on May 15, and there is only one more policy meeting between now and then. However, it’s possible he will stay in the position longer if the Senate does not confirm is designated successor, former Governor Kevin Warsh.
Watch live:
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2026 – 10:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-speaks-harvard-university
Vance Tops CPAC Straw Poll For 2028 GOP Presidential Nominee
Vance Tops CPAC Straw Poll For 2028 GOP Presidential Nominee
Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Vice President JD Vance is the leading candidate to take the Republican nomination for president in 2028, according to a straw poll taken at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on March 28.
Vance received 53 percent of the support of the people who attended the annual conference in Grapevine, Texas. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in second place at 35 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. came in at 2 percent each. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), War Secretary Pete Hegseth, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott all had 1 percent support.
The poll was announced at the end of the four-day CPAC conference.
In 2025, Vance won the CPAC straw poll for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, receiving 61 percent support, and Steve Bannon took second place at 12 percent.
Vance also holds a big lead in the RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire’s 2028 Republican presidential primary polls conducted in February 2026 and March 2026. Vance leads those polls at 47.3 percent, and Rubio is second at 17.3 percent. They are followed by former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley at 6.7 percent and DeSantis at 5.3 percent.
A presidential matchup between President Donald Trump and Haley had overwhelmingly favored Trump in CPAC’s February 2024 straw poll.
According to the poll, 94 percent of respondents said they would support Trump if a Republican primary were held that day, compared with 5 percent for Haley. Only 1 percent said they were undecided.
Trump is not eligible to run for president in 2028. The president did not attend the 2026 CPAC conference.
The recent CPAC straw poll supports earlier polling that had Vance as the leading candidate.
A September 2025 poll from YouGov showed Vance with a commanding early lead in the 2028 Republican presidential field. The survey had Vance as the top choice with 44 percent of Republican respondents, far ahead of any other potential candidate.
The rest of the field trailed in single digits; Trump Jr. drew about 10 percent, followed by DeSantis at roughly 8 percent and Rubio near 4 percent.
Vance talked to Fox News host Sean Hannity in November 2025 about running against Rubio in a presidential election.
In a segment that was aired separately from the full interview, Hannity said Rubio was Vance’s “best friend” in the administration, and Vance agreed.
“People have asked me, ‘Do you see Marco as a rival?’“ Vance said. ”First of all, if either one of us end up running, it’s a long ways in the future and none of us are entitled to it. It would be ridiculous for me to say, ‘Marco is a rival.’ No. No. No. Marco is a colleague.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2026 – 10:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/vance-tops-cpac-straw-poll-2028-gop-presidential-nominee
Vance Tops CPAC Straw Poll For 2028 GOP Presidential Nominee
Vance Tops CPAC Straw Poll For 2028 GOP Presidential Nominee
Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Vice President JD Vance is the leading candidate to take the Republican nomination for president in 2028, according to a straw poll taken at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on March 28.
Vance received 53 percent of the support of the people who attended the annual conference in Grapevine, Texas. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in second place at 35 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. came in at 2 percent each. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), War Secretary Pete Hegseth, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott all had 1 percent support.
The poll was announced at the end of the four-day CPAC conference.
In 2025, Vance won the CPAC straw poll for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, receiving 61 percent support, and Steve Bannon took second place at 12 percent.
Vance also holds a big lead in the RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire’s 2028 Republican presidential primary polls conducted in February 2026 and March 2026. Vance leads those polls at 47.3 percent, and Rubio is second at 17.3 percent. They are followed by former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley at 6.7 percent and DeSantis at 5.3 percent.
A presidential matchup between President Donald Trump and Haley had overwhelmingly favored Trump in CPAC’s February 2024 straw poll.
According to the poll, 94 percent of respondents said they would support Trump if a Republican primary were held that day, compared with 5 percent for Haley. Only 1 percent said they were undecided.
Trump is not eligible to run for president in 2028. The president did not attend the 2026 CPAC conference.
The recent CPAC straw poll supports earlier polling that had Vance as the leading candidate.
A September 2025 poll from YouGov showed Vance with a commanding early lead in the 2028 Republican presidential field. The survey had Vance as the top choice with 44 percent of Republican respondents, far ahead of any other potential candidate.
The rest of the field trailed in single digits; Trump Jr. drew about 10 percent, followed by DeSantis at roughly 8 percent and Rubio near 4 percent.
Vance talked to Fox News host Sean Hannity in November 2025 about running against Rubio in a presidential election.
In a segment that was aired separately from the full interview, Hannity said Rubio was Vance’s “best friend” in the administration, and Vance agreed.
“People have asked me, ‘Do you see Marco as a rival?’“ Vance said. ”First of all, if either one of us end up running, it’s a long ways in the future and none of us are entitled to it. It would be ridiculous for me to say, ‘Marco is a rival.’ No. No. No. Marco is a colleague.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2026 – 10:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/vance-tops-cpac-straw-poll-2028-gop-presidential-nominee
Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Payrolls, PMI, ISM, Retail Sales And Fed Speech
Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Payrolls, PMI, ISM, Retail Sales And Fed Speech
Looking at the week ahead, we should start to learn about the economic consequences of the conflict, as several data releases for March are out which cover the period since the strikes began on February 28.
In the US, that includes the monthly jobs report on Friday – which falls on a Holday when stocks are closed, while bonds are open for half a day – where economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by +60k in March. As a reminder, US payrolls have been pretty choppy in recent months, and on the current series of revisions they’ve been oscillating between positive and negative readings for every month since May. Last month they were down -92k, but some of that weakness was a function of a strike at a major healthcare company that’s since ended, along with severe weather that may have temporarily depressed February’s payrolls. So while DB economists are expecting a positive payrolls print for March, they think the unemployment rate will round up to 4.5% given how close it was last month (4.44%).
Otherwise in the US, the focus will be on whether higher oil prices have started to impact business sentiment and inflation in a meaningful way. So the ISM manufacturing will be in the spotlight, including the prices paid component for whether the inflationary impact has started to filter through. Before that, we’ll also get the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading tomorrow.
Speaking of inflation, the main highlight in Europe will be tomorrow’s flash CPI print for the Euro Area, which is an important one as the ECB work out what to do. To be fair, the flash print from Spain last Friday was weaker than expected, at +3.3% (vs. +3.8% expected), so that’s slightly eased fears about a very strong print tomorrow. Nevertheless, even with the Spanish number, DB’s European economists are still tracking the Euro Area CPI print at +2.53% year-on-year, up from +1.89% in February, a number which was reinforced with today’s regional German CPI update for March.
Elsewhere this week, there isn’t too much on the calendar of events as we move towards Easter. Indeed, markets will be closed in several countries at the end of the week for Good Friday. However, we will hear from a few central bankers, including Fed Chair Powell later today, who’s speaking in a discussion at Harvard University.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday March 30
Data: US March Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, February net consumer credit, M4, Germany March CPI, Italy February PPI, Eurozone March economic confidence
Central banks: Fed’s Powell and Williams speak, ECB’s Stournaras speaks
Tuesday March 31
Data: US March Conference Board consumer confidence index, MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed services activity, February JOLTS report, January FHFA house price index, China March official PMIs, UK Q4 current account balance, Japan March Tokyo CPI, February jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany March unemployment claims rate, February retail sales, import price index, France March CPI, February PPI, consumer spending, Italy March CPI, January industrial sales, Eurozone March CPI, Canada January GDP
Central banks: Fed’s Goolsbee, Barr and Bowman speak, ECB’s Panetta, Muller, Sleijpen and Kazimir speak, RBA minutes of the March meeting
Earnings: Nike
Other: French President Macron visiting Japan, through April 2
Wednesday April 1
Data: US March ISM index, ADP report, total vehicle sales, February retail sales, January business inventories, China March RatingDog manufacturing PMI, Japan BoJ’s Tankan survey, Italy March manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, February unemployment rate, Eurozone February unemployment rate, Canada March manufacturing PMI
Central banks: Fed’s Musalem and Barr speak, ECB’s Cipollone speaks, BoC’s summary of deliberations
Thursday April 2
Data: US February trade balance, initial jobless claims, Japan March monetary base, France February budget balance, Italy February retail sales, Canada February international merchandise trade, Switzerland March CPI
Central banks: ECB’s economic bulletin, BoE’s DMP survey
Friday April 3
Data: US March jobs report, China March RatingDog services PMI, France February industrial production
Central banks: ECB’s Radev speaks
Other: Good Friday
Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Chair Powell and New York Fed President Williams on Monday.
Monday, March 30
10:30 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at Harvard University. Moderated and audience Q&A are expected. On March 18th, Chair Powell said that the risks to employment and inflation are on an equal footing, saying that he would “be hard-pressed to say that one of them is obviously more at risk than the other.” He added that he takes seriously the risk from the oil price shock to inflation expectations against a backdrop where inflation has been high for five years. In light of this, he said, “the framework calls to balance the risks,” and a “mildly restrictive” stance or the “higher borderline of restrictive versus not restrictive” is “the right place to be.”
04:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at the Staten Island Economic Development Corporation. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected. On March 3rd, President Williams said that “monetary policy is currently well positioned to support the stabilization of the labor market and return inflation to our 2% goal,” adding that “in recent months there have been promising signs of stabilization in the labor market.”
Tuesday, March 31
09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%)
09:00 AM FHFA house price index, January (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, March (GS 86.5, consensus 88.0, last 91.2)
10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, February (GS 7,000k, consensus 6,890k, last 6,946k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings were roughly unchanged month-over-month in February at 7.0mn based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp. Since the end of February, those measures have declined by roughly 2% on average.
12:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will give opening remarks at a Chicago Fed Mobility Project virtual event. On March 24th, President Goolsbee said that “we could be back to the environment with multiple rate cuts for the year, if inflation behaves,” but added that “I could see circumstances where we would need to raise rates if it was going a different way and inflation was getting out of control.”
03:00 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will discuss stablecoin regulation at a Federalist Society virtual event. Speech text and moderated and audience Q&A are expected. On March 26th, Governor Barr said that “given the considerable uncertainty about the potential effects of developments in the Middle East on our economy, as well as other factors, it makes sense to take some time to assess conditions,” adding that “our current policy stance puts us in a good place to hold steady while we evaluate the incoming data.”
05:10 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on small businesses at the 2026 Consumer Bankers Association Live conference in San Diego. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected. On March 20th, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman said that she has “written three cuts before the end of 2026 to hopefully support the labor market,” and noted that “it is too soon to tell what the impacts of the conflict with Iran will be.”
Wednesday, April 1
08:15 AM ADP employment change, March (GS +40k, consensus +40k, last +63k)
08:30 AM Retail sales, February (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last flat); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, February (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Core retail sales, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%): We estimate core retail sales increased 0.5% in February (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting solid alternative data. We estimate headline retail sales increased 0.6%, reflecting a rebound in auto sales.
09:05 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the economy and monetary policy at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected.
09:10 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will discuss AI and consumer issues at the National Fair Housing Alliance symposium in Washington, DC. Moderated Q&A is expected.
09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March final (consensus 52.4, last 52.4)
10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, March (GS 53.0, consensus 52.4, last 52.4): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index increased by 0.6pt to 53.0 in March, reflecting sequential improvement in regional manufacturing surveys but a slight headwind from potential residual seasonality. Our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 1.1pt to 53.6.
05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, March (GS 16.0mn, consensus 15.9mn, last 15.8mn)
Thursday, April 2
08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$50.0bn, consensus -$60.0bn, last -$54.5bn): We forecast that the trade deficit narrowed by $4.5bn to $50.0bn in February, reflecting an increase in gold exports that was partially offset by an increase in goods imports from China.
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 28 (GS 205k, consensus 212k, last 210k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 21 (consensus 1,830k, last 1,819k)
Friday, April 3
US equity markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday, while SIFMA recommends an early close at 12 PM for the bond market.
08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, March (GS +70k, consensus +60k, last -92k); Private payroll employment, March (GS +75k, consensus +70k, last -86k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Unemployment rate, March (GS 4.4%, consensus 4.4%, last 4.4%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 70k in March. On the positive side, we expect a 32k boost from the end of worker strikes and a moderate tailwind from sequentially better weather after it likely weighed on February payroll growth. The big data indicators we track were mixed in March. On the negative side, we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls—reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that is partly offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.4% in March, reflecting the stabilization in continuing claims over the last month. That said, the bar for rounding up to 4.5% is not high from an unrounded 4.44% in February. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in March, reflecting neutral calendar effects.
09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, March final (consensus 51.1, last 51.1)
Source: DB, Goldman
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2026 – 10:15
Pakistan & Afghanistan Exchange Heavy Fire After Short-Lived Truce
Pakistan & Afghanistan Exchange Heavy Fire After Short-Lived Truce
The prior truce between warring neighbors Pakistan and Afghanistan has been breaking down since last week. Some analysts are calling it a ceasefire in name only.
The globe’s attention has been on the Iran conflict, but heavy AfPak fighting has been on for almost the exact same length of time as Trump’s Operation Epic Fury against Iran. But it hasn’t received much attention in international headlines.
Earlier this month a short-lived truce had been announced by the two sides just ahead of the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr, which was on March 20.
But clashes erupted Sunday between Kunar Province and Bajaur District, with both sides reportedly deploying heavy weapons and artillery, amid international reports of at least one dead and 16 wounded – mostly women and children – per Afghan Taliban officials.
Islamabad is downplaying the flare-up in fighting, however. “Some minor violations took place from the Afghan side and we responded to it in the same sector,” a Pakistan government official has said. These statements have suggested a mere exchange of border shelling.
In late February Pakistan declared “open war” against Afghanistan, launching drone and missile strikes not just on Taliban border positions, but on Kabul itself, amid accusations that the Taliban has been sponsoring terror attacks against Pakistan cities and even mosques.
The single deadliest incident came from an alleged Pakistani airstrike on a drug treatment center and civilian hub:
Kabul said more than 400 people were killed in a Pakistani air strike on a drug rehabilitation center in the Afghan capital this month before the neighbors suspended fighting.
Pakistan rejected the Taliban’s statements about the strike, saying it had “precisely targeted military installations and terrorist support infrastructure”.
Somewhat ironically, Islamabad is currently playing host to peace talks among regional powers which are trying to get Washington and Tehran to the same negotiating table.
At least 400 people were killed and 250 injured in an air strike by Pakistan on a drug users rehabilitation hospital in Kabul, a spokesman of the Afghan Taliban government said on Tuesday, a sharp escalation in the conflict between the neighbours. pic.twitter.com/m7U54J6SnB
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 17, 2026
Any further destabilization inside Afghanistan could have further negative repercussions in the country’s neighbor to the West, Iran. The Islamic Republic already plays host to an estimated more than 3 million Afghan refugees. This crisis could soon grow worse, as now Tehran struggles under US-Israeli bombs.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2026 – 10:05
The Market Is Grappling With Two Major Unknowns
The Market Is Grappling With Two Major Unknowns
By Stefan Koopman, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
President Trump began this week’s Monday‑morning jawboning ahead of schedule. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday evening as he returned to Washington DC, he talked up the negotiations with Iran, said that Iran’s new leadership already constitutes “regime change” and praised the “deal” with Iranian speaker Ghalibaf to allow up to 20 Pakistan-flagged oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian (!) escort.
Markets have already brushed aside Trump’s comments, preferring instead the trading wisdom offered by Ghalibaf, who posted on X: “If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.”
Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator.
Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.
See something tomorrow? You know the drill.
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 29, 2026
If the Iranian speaker wants to unsettle markets a bit more, he might consider writing a long Substack titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” describing a future in which AI sweeps through white-collar professions, upends business models, and helps trigger a stock market correction followed by a consumer‑led recession. Those were the days when we still had the luxury of worrying about this.
Instead, the market is grappling with two major unknowns that feed directly into each other:
when oil flows through the Strait will resume in meaningful volumes, and
at what price level oil switches from an inflation story to a recession story.
Brent climbed this morning to 115 dollars, up 2% from Friday’s close and about 11 dollars above the low reached after Trump extended the talks until April 6. This came as President Trump told the Financial Times that he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and is considering seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s main export hub. Riffing off the Venezuelan model, he boasted that the United States could control oil there “indefinitely”.
Of course, seizing Kharg Island would not mean “taking Iran’s oil.” It would simply choke off large parts of Iran’s export capacity, leaving the barrels in Iranian ownership while pushing global prices higher unless those volumes find their way back to the market. If Trump truly intends to seize Iran’s oil, he would have to capture thousands of wells spread across a vast country, which can’t happen without a much larger military footprint or genuine regime change.
US media reported over the weekend that the Pentagon is preparing for “weeks” of ground operations in Iran, with thousands of soldiers and Marines moving into the Middle East. The deployment gives Washington more leverage and optionality in the negotiations, and it could produce tactical gains if used. Yet it remains unclear what an escalation with “boots on the ground” is meant to accomplish in Iran from a strategic perspective.
BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. Central Command confirms an amphibious warship carrying troops has entered its area of responsibility, signaling a potential escalation as forces position closer to the conflict zone. pic.twitter.com/fo1V0tQDp3
— War Radar (@War_Radar2) March 28, 2026
If the objective is to reopen the Strait, and if that succeeds, the immediate question becomes what follows. At some point US forces will leave, and Iran will know it can close the Strait again whenever it chooses. Keeping it open would therefore require some sort of permanent occupation of part of Iran rather than a few weeks of operations. A reopened Strait might also be used to hasten a peace agreement on US terms. But for such an agreement to stick long-term, the United States would again need to keep troops in Iran indefinitely.
The only exit strategy for a ground war that could even remotely work is to topple the regime and install a puppet government, as in Venezuela. But Iran is not Venezuela. It would instead require fighting a long counterinsurgency campaign with heavy casualties and widespread destruction, including damage to Gulf energy and water infrastructure for as long as Iran maintains its ability to fire missiles. Iran would also mine the Strait. A ground war is a recipe for a disaster far larger than the one already unfolding.
And then there are the Houthis. The Iranian-backed group had been relatively quiet in recent weeks, but on Saturday they entered the conflict by firing missiles at Israel. Their involvement raises the risk of further disruption to oil flows. Around five million barrels of Saudi crude are diverted each day through the pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, with shipments to Asia then sailing south through the 29‑kilometre‑wide Bab al‑Mandeb chokepoint off Yemen. All the Houthis would need to do is fire at a few passing tankers, and shipping through the Red Sea would come to an immediate halt. Even at 115 dollars per barrel and Asian stocks now under heavy selling pressure, the market is not priced for that.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2026 – 09:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-grappling-two-major-unknowns
NATO Member Spain Closes Airspace To US Planes Involved In Iran Operations
NATO Member Spain Closes Airspace To US Planes Involved In Iran Operations
Given worsening US-Spanish relations over Washington’s pro-Israel policies, this is a big step which is not entirely surprising – Spain has fully shuttered its airspace to US planes involved in attacks on Iran.
This is an action significantly beyond its prior controversial policy to deny US use of jointly-operated military bases, and what has also been a long-running ban on ships transferring arms and ammo to Israel.
Spain’s Defense Minister Margarita Robles announced on Monday, “We don’t authorize either the use of military bases or the use of airspace for actions related to the war in Iran.”
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has also confirmed, “We have denied the United States the use of the Rota and Morón bases for this illegal war. All flight plans involving operations in Iran have been rejected. All of them, including those for refueling aircraft.” Apparently an exception will be made for emergency landings. But in essence this means no US flyovers by tanker aircraft or bombers will be approved.
Crucially, El Pais – which first broke the news – has also made clear that the airspace ban applies to US aircraft coming from UK and French bases which are involved in the Iran theatre.
“Not only is it prohibiting the use of the military bases in Rota (Cádiz) and Morón de la Frontera (Seville) by fighter jets or in-flight refueling aircraft participating in the attack; it is also denying airspace access to U.S. aircraft stationed in third countries, such as the United Kingdom or France, according to military sources,” the Spanish publication says.
Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo has articulate the government’s justification for the move as follows: “This decision is part of the decision already made by the Spanish government not to participate in or contribute to a war which was initiated unilaterally and against international law.”
Another important exception is for American warplanes or transport aircraft supporting purely European operations. These planes which are not directly involved in the Middle East operation will be allowed to continue to use Spanish bases.
According to a report from the AP, Spain has closed its airspace to U.S. aircraft on a mission to strike Iran. This follows Spain’s decision to disallow the U.S. to use bases at Moron or Rota in support of strikes a few weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/OcYZI6VND8
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 30, 2026
But ultimately this constitutes a huge inter-NATO rift. It means that American planes are forced to bypass the significant territory of NATO member Spain en route to their targets in the Middle East. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to cut trade with Spain, amid other punitive measures.
Much of Europe sees Trump’s Iran operation as fundamentally ‘not our war’ with the potential to become another endless quagmire like the Iraq and Afghan wars. Many European nations have also viewed Trump’s rhetoric and rationale for the war as confusing and lacking clear strategic vision, which could be a recipe for no endpoint.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2026 – 09:25
