President Trump dropped one of his briefest and most succinct posts on his TruthSocial feed this morning. Just three little words: 

“I LOVE DELL”

Trump’s praise comes after Michael and Susan Dell announced Tuesday that they have committed $6.25 billion to fund investment accounts for some 25 million American children.

The couple’s unprecedented philanthropic gift will be the largest ever devoted to American children, according to Invest America, a nonprofit advocacy group partnered with the Dells.

“It’s designed to help families feel supported from the start and encourage them to keep saving as their children grow,” Michael Dell, founder and CEO of Dell Technologies, told CNBC in an interview.

“We know that when children have accounts like this, they’re much more likely to graduate from high school, from college, buy a home, start a business and less likely to be incarcerated.”

$6.25 billion. 25 million children. $250 each.

Susan and I believe the smartest investment we can make is in children. That’s why we’re so excited to contribute $6.25 billion from our charitable funds to help 25 million children start building a strong financial foundation… pic.twitter.com/4Bcv3RKp0q

— Michael Dell 🇺🇸 (@MichaelDell) December 2, 2025

The $6.25 billion gift builds on the Invest America initiative – better known as “Trump accounts” – created earlier this year as part of President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Under the program, the government will automatically seed an account with $1,000 for each child born between 2025 and 2028.

As Bloomberg reports, the Dells’ gift will go to the Treasury Department and will fund accounts for an additional 25 million children 10 and under who aren’t already eligible for the government money.

Dell, 60, said he is initially targeting zip codes with median household incomes below $150,000 and expects to reach 80% of US children in that age range.

“We believe that if every child can see a future that’s worth saving for, we’re going to build something far greater than an account,” Dell said in an interview.

“We will build hope and opportunity and prosperity for generations to come.”

The money will be invested in diversified, low-cost index funds and won’t be accessible until the child turns 18, at which point it can be withdrawn for expenses such as a college education, home deposit or startup costs.

Assets in Trump accounts are allowed to grow tax-free, though recipients must pay taxes on their gains when the money is withdrawn.

“For us, it’s really an opportunity to give every child a little bit of a start in building their future,” Dell said. Silicon Valley venture capitalist Brad Gerstner launched the Invest America nonprofit in 2023 with the idea of disbursing money to American children to shrink the wealth gap and increase financial literacy.

“The wealth gap has widened, and we haven’t come up with anything tangible to deal with it,” Gerstner, the founder of Altimeter Capital, said in an interview.

“This will dramatically alter the fortunes of the people who have been left out and left behind.”

Gerstner said he hopes the accounts will unlock a new way for government, companies and individuals like Dell to invest in children’s futures.

The severe diplomatic standoff which was triggered by last month’s words of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi wherein she suggested Japan would militarily aid in Taiwan’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion is increasingly becoming a potential military standoff. We earlier detailed that Japan has even deployed medium-range missiles to a remote Japanese island not far from China.

Already there’s been a confrontation involving China’s coast guard boats, which attempted to run off a Japanese fishing vessel for allegedly being inside claimed Chinese waters. The fresh incident happened near a group of geopolitically sensitive islands in the East China Sea on Tuesday.

Japan and Chinese coast guard vessels have clashed somewhat frequently in the recent past. Illustrative: Kyodo News, via Associated Press

The Japanese boat is accused of entering the waters of the Diaoyu Islands – which Tokyo calls the Senkaku Islands and has long administered. 

But a nearby Japanese Coast Guard ship which had been accompanying the fishing vessel then in turn expelled two Chinese Coast Guard ships as they approached and tried to enforce Beijing’s expansive maritime claims over the territory.

The area is already a bit of a flashpoint between the two historic rivals, as Taiwan is located just less than 100 miles southwest of the Senkaku Islands. There are conflicting accounts of the incident, with the Chinese side relating as follows:

China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson Liu Dejun said that Chinese vessels on Tuesday approached and warned off a Japanese fishing boat that had “illegally entered the territorial waters of China’s Diaoyu Dao”, according to a state media report.

Liu added that the CCG took “necessary law enforcement measures”, claiming that the islands were Chinese territory and urging Japan to “immediately stop all acts of infringement and provocation in these waters”.

However, Japan has countered that its coast guard boats approached the Chinese vessels shortly after they were seen breaching Japanese waters and issued warnings and threats demanding they leave sovereign waters.

The current broader standoff over PM Takaichi’s Taiwan comments is now trickling down to the common populations on either side, as events like concerts have been canceled:

The abrupt cancellations of several Japanese music events in Shanghai – one of them midway through a song – have sparked criticism among fans, with some calling the moves “rude” and “extreme”.

Maki Otsuki was halfway through the theme of hit anime One Piece on Friday when the lights and music went off, after which she was rushed off stage by two crew members.

On Saturday, pop star Ayumi Hamasaki performed to an empty 14,000-seat stadium after organizers axed her concert in Shanghai, citing “force majeure”.

This spate of cancellations come as diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo fester over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan.

China earlier warned Japan will suffer a “crushing” defeat if it ever decided to directly intervene in the Taiwan dispute. Recent years have also seen Beijing’s anger grow after NATO briefly talked about opening an official office in Tokyo, but these plans were soon abandoned for the time being.

Source: VOA

Last month China’s foreign ministry warned that “Right-wing forces in Japan are … leading Japan and the region toward disaster.“ Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning further told a regular news briefing. Beijing “is determined and capable of safeguarding its national territorial sovereignty.”

After Monday’s dismal start to December, US equity futures are higher (if only for the time being), although lacking conviction with few major catalysts on deck today. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.4%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly higher led by META (+0.6%) and AMZN (+0.4%). Bond yields are unchanged and the USD is flat. Commodities are mostly mixed: Oil is flat; base metals are all higher (aluminum +0.9%), while precious metals are lower. After the latest post-BOJ bloodbath, bitcoin has managed to hold a modest bid and was trading above $87,000. The US economic calendar is blank for scheduled data releases.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.8%, Amazon +0.7%, Tesla +0.3%, Microsoft +0.05%, Apple -0.1%). 

Cloudflare Inc. (NET) gains 2% after Barclays launched coverage on the infrastructure software company with an overweight rating and a $235 price target.
Credo Technology (CRDO) rises 18% after the communications equipment company’s second-quarter results came in much stronger than expected. It also gave a strong forecast. Shares of competitor Astera Labs (ALAB) gain 5%.
MongoDB (MDB) rallies 23% after the database software company reported stronger-than-expected results. It also raised its full-year forecast.
Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) gains 3% after Truist Securities upgraded the theme park operator’s stock to buy from hold.
Solaris Energy Infrastructure Inc. (SEI) rises 4% after the data center power generator was initiated at Morgan Stanley with a recommendation of overweight on power supply demand.
Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) inches 1.1% higher. The company was fielding a second round of bids on Monday, including a mostly cash offer from Netflix Inc., in an auction that could wrap up in the coming days or weeks, according to people familiar with the discussions.

In corporate news, The Information reported that Amazon is planning a new ultrafast grocery delivery offering in major US urban areas, sending shares of Instacart lower. Warner Bros. Discovery was said to be fielding a second round of bids on Monday, including a mostly cash offer from Netflix. The Commerce Department agreed to invest as much as $150 million in xLight, a chip technology startup tied to former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger. 

With the market stuck in a holding pattern until the next leg higher or lower, investors are awaiting eco data later this week, and the Fed is now in a blackout period. Black Friday and Cyber Monday offered some clues on the economy, with Bloomberg describing “anxious but still active” consumers, and Salesforce data showing Cyber Monday spending grew more slowly in the US than Europe for the first time as tariffs stung American shoppers.

“For long-only investors like we are, I’d say in the absence of any major catalyst, it’s very much wait-and-see until the Fed meeting, while keeping an eye on US jobs and inflation data,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi Investissements in Paris.

Much now depends on the Fed’s decision at next week’s meeting. Disappointment would pose a risk for equities, though confidence in a cut is virtually certain, with market odds of a cut at 100% following softer labor and inflation data and a run of dovish comments from officials.

“Dips continue to present attractive buying opportunities,” wrote Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. “The narrative behind that bull case remains an attractive one, with earnings growth solid, the underlying economy resilient, a calmer tone on trade continuing to prevail, and the monetary backdrop growing looser.”

Bitcoin is steady today after a more than 5% plunge on Monday which saw almost $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions liquidated. Crypto retail investors who piled into exchange-traded funds tracking Strategy’s volatile stock have paid a heavy price. Both MSTX and MSTU – which offer double the daily return – have dropped more than 80% this year, among the 10 worst-performing funds in the entire US ETF market.

While bitcoin longs were hammered again, so were stock short sellers: they were down $80 billion in mark-to-market losses in the final week of November, wiping out the bulk of what had been nearly $95 billion in month-to-date profits prior to last week, per data compiled by S3 Partners. “Being short here requires high confidence in a much weaker economic backdrop or a significant change in the outlook for AI capex,” said Dennis Debusschere, co-founder and chief market strategist at 22V Research.

Ahead of next week’s Fed decision, Barclays strategists noted that S&P 500 implied moves ahead of FOMC meetings have declined since early 2023, with realized moves hovering near zero recently. It’s a trend that underscores the fading influence of monetary policy, they wrote. 

After hitting a record high just shy of $60, silver pulled back modestly with a technical gauge showing that a six-day rally had pushed the metal into overbought territory. Copper also retreated amid signs that softer Chinese demand heading into winter might help to ease a looming global supply crunch.

Elsewhere, Bloomberg found that among the 14 largest markets, the US currently ranks 5th from last in local-currency terms and 4th from last in dollar terms this year. That raises questions about whether the AI theme will lead it to victory or whether volatility tied to nascent tech exposure is doing more harm than good.

European stocks and US equity futures hold modest gains; the Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%, led by gains in banks, utilities and construction. Bayer soars after the Trump administration urged the Supreme Court to take up the company’s appeal of the Roundup case. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

Bayer shares surge as much as 15% after the US solicitor general urged the high court to consider the German company’s appeal targeting thousands of lawsuits blaming its Roundup weedkiller for causing cancer.
Bilfinger shares rise as much as 6% after the German company said it aims to achieve an advanced average revenue growth of 8% to 10% annually, elevate its Ebita margin to 8% to 9%, and ensure a cash conversion rate of at least 90% until 2030.
Victrex shares jump as much as 11% after JPMorgan said the thermoplastic maker cleared a low bar by beating expectations in the second half. Jefferies noted that a feared dividend cut hasn’t materialized.
Biotalys shares rise as much as 8.8% after the Belgian agricultural technology company received regulatory approval from the US Environmental Protection Agency for its first biofungicide, called Evoca.
Compagnie des Alpes rises as much as 6.9% following 2025 results from the French ski resort and theme park operator, which CIC Market Solutions describes as “excellent.”
Swissquote shares tumble as much as 8.6% after one of its investors offered shares at a discount to the last closing price. Shares fell below the offer price before paring losses.
Scandic Hotels drops as much as 8.8% as Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal-weight, saying the country’s acquisition of Dalata’s hotel operation may not be as profitable as previously expected.
Foresight Group shares decline as much as 8.2% after the UK infrastructure and private equity investment management services company’s interim results, with Peel Hunt noting impact from margin compression.
Pantheon Resources shares drop as much as 28% after the company’s update on work at the Dubhe-1 well. Canaccord Genuity said markets are still waiting for representative flow rates and that the cost of the work has come in higher than previously forecast.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, snapping a two-day decline, helped by a rally in tech-heavy markets of South Korea and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%, before paring gains. TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were among the biggest boosts to the gauge’s climb. Shares eked out small gains in Japan as banks extended advances on speculation of a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike this month. Growing expectations of an interest rate cut in the US is aiding risk-on in the region. A stabilization in bitcoin also helped sentiment after a selloff in cryptocurrencies led declines in global risk assets on Monday. Shares drop in India, as the rupee hit a record low. Concerns over the lack of a trade deal with the US is weighing on the currency. Benchmarks in China also traded lower. 

In FX, the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY above 156. The euro loses a few pips with little reaction to a surprise uptick in euro-area CPI. The pound is down 0.2%.

In rates, treasury yields are higher, within two basis points of Monday’s close with 10-year trading around 4.11%. Bund and gilts are little changed. In Asia, JGBs were supported after Tuesday’s 10-year auction drew solid demand. The corporate issuance slate is expected to grow following a heavy day on Monday. The IG dollar bond issuance slate is empty so far. Tuesday is expected to bring more US investment-grade bond issuance after around $16 billion of new deals on Monday, led by Merck’s acquisition-related $8 billion eight-part offering.

In commodities, spot gold falls $45 and back below $4,200/oz. US crude futures are treading water at $59.30 a abrrel. 

The US economic calendar is blank for scheduled data releases. Fed members are in external communications blackout ahead of the Dec. 10 policy announcement

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +0.2%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
DAX +0.5%
CAC 40 +0.2%
10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.09%
VIX -0.4 points at 16.85
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1219.09
euro little changed at $1.1604
WTI crude little changed at $59.34/barrel

Top Overnight News

Trump’s schedule noted he will host a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday at 11:30am and will make an announcement at 2:00pm. Some expect he could announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair (Hassett’s odds are up to 79% on Polymarket). 
Senators have about a week before they’re set to vote on soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies. Most of them already believe the chances for a bipartisan breakthrough by then are roughly zero. Politico
US envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Vladimir Putin to discuss a Ukraine peace plan as Russia claimed its forces seized Pokrovsk on the Donetsk frontline. A fourth Russia-connected tanker in less than a week was attacked today. BBG
Officially, the search for a new Federal Reserve chair is still under way. A handful of finalists are scheduled to sit down for interviews beginning this week with Vice President JD Vance and senior White House staff. Unofficially, the process seems to be all but over, with President Trump appearing to favor longtime adviser Kevin Hassett. If Hassett does end up the nominee, it will be because he met Trump’s two key criteria: loyalty, and credibility with the markets. WSJ
OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman told employees Monday that the company was declaring a “code red” effort to improve the quality of ChatGPT and delaying other products as a result. OpenAI plans to launch a new reasoning model next week that the company claims outperforms Gemini 3. WSJ
The world economy is weathering Trump’s trade tariffs better than expected, the OECD said. It raised its US and euro-area growth forecasts. Still, it continues to predict global growth will slow to 2.9% in 2026, from 3.2% in 2025. BBG
China is expected to ramp up US soybean purchases this month to meet a pledge to buy at least 12 million tons by year-end, led by state firms like Cofco, traders said. So far, only about 3 million have been booked. BBG
Strong demand for Japanese government bonds helped to steady Asian markets on Tuesday, a day after hawkish comments from the central bank governor sparked a global selloff. FT
Europe’s headline CPI for Nov ran a bit warmer than anticipated at +2.2% (vs. the Street +2.1% and up from +2.1% in Oct) while the core number was inline at +2.4% (and steady vs. Oct). BBG
Members of the House of Representatives are quitting Congress at a record rate, with Republican retirements and resignations outpacing Democrats by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio in the first 11 months of the year. In previous cycles, the party with more departures tends to lose seats — if not the majority. Axios
Apple plans not to follow the order by the Indian government to preload phones with a state-run cyber safety app, according to Reuters, citing sources; Co. to voice its concerns around privacy and security following new app order

Trade/Tariffs

Chinese rare-earth magnet companies are reportedly finding workarounds to their government’s export restrictions, as they seek to keep sales flowing to Western buyers, according to WSJ.
China reportedly issues first rare earth magnet general export licence after the Trump-Xi meeting, according to Reuters sources
Exxon (XOM) is reportedly in talks with Iraq over purchasing Lukoil’s stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield, via Reuters citing sources.
Russia’s Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says that Russia continues to be an important supplier of energy to India on a competitive basis. Looking at possibilities to increase imports from India. A decrease in oil trade volumes can be decreased for a brief period of time.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsqsuawk

APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall Street, but with the upside capped amid quiet macro catalysts and in the absence of any tier-1 data. ASX 200 eked mild gains with the help of outperformance in energy, resources and mining, but with gains limited by underperformance in tech and utilities, while data was uninspiring with a larger-than-expected contraction in building approvals. Nikkei 225 nursed some of the prior day’s losses but with the rebound contained amid risks of a BoJ December hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp mostly traded mixed as participants reflected on a slew of monthly auto sales updates, while the mainland lagged after the PBoC’s open market operations resulted in a net daily drain of CNY 146bln.

Top Asian News

RBNZ Governor Breman said she will discuss with the MPC the possibility of being more transparent with how members vote, while she added that the mandate is very clear that we should focus on keeping inflation low and stable. Breman said that they aim to support a healthy, strong and growing economy, but keep inflation low and stable. It was separately reported that the RBNZ is to begin weekly open-market operations from December 4th and will update changes to the format in Q1 2026.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has completed development of its 6th-gen HBM4 and is entering full-scale mass production, via AJUNews.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) started the session flat/incrementally firmer before then catching a bid as the morning progressed; no clear driver for the upside, but a move which has sustained as indices reside near peaks. European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Banks take the top spot, with gains broad-based across the UK and Europe, but traders may also be digesting the latest update via the BoE, where it lowered capital requirements for UK banks as they pass stress tests. Media is found at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Travel & Leisure.

Top European News

Confederation of British Industry said Britain’s private sector expects output to decline during the next three months in the gloomiest outlook since May as cautious consumer spending and cost pressures continue to weigh on businesses.
BoE Financial Policy Committee Record: System-wide level of Tier 1 capital requirements is now around 13% of risk-weighted assets, 1ppt lower than its previous benchmark of around 14%. CCyB maintained at 2%. “The Committee has also identified areas for further work, including on buffer usability, the implementation of the leverage ratio in the UK, and initiatives by the Bank to respond to feedback on interactions, proportionality, and complexity. Committee supports the Bank’s plans for a private markets system-wide exploratory scenario (SWES)”.
OECD sees global growth of 3.2% in 2025 (maintained from prev. forecast), 2.9% in 2026 (maintained), 3.1% in 2027 (new forecast).
UK OBR’s Miles says it was not misleading for Chancellor Reeves to have said that the situation with public finances was very challenging. 
BoE Governor Bailey says he expects banks to support the economy through lending following recent capital changes. 

FX

DXY and most G10 FX are uneventful in relatively quiet trade, with a similar lack of macro drivers seen during APAC hours. Specifically, DXY resides in a narrow 99.38-99.52 parameter, with ING calling for a lower dollar this week – “we expect that the remainder of the week will validate the market’s dovish pricing for next week’s Fed meeting”. As it stands, the index trades at the upper end of the mentioned ranges, with recent strength thanks to some pressure seen in the GBP.
EUR traded flat ahead of the EZ HICP metrics, and then was little moved on the release itself. Headline printed a touch above expected at 2.20% (exp. 2.10%) whilst the Services figure also ticked higher from the prior month. Overall, given the figures were near enough in line with expectations, there was little follow-through into the single-currency and held within a 1.1604 to 1.1616 range, before then touching 1.1600 as the USD picked up a touch.
USD/JPY outperforms amid a pick-up in risk sentiment and after the pair’s volatile Monday session, which saw a slump to 154.66 lows before bouncing back up and clear of 155.50 and then 156.00, with the pair eyeing yesterday’s 156.15 peak as the near-term resistance level, and thereafter Black Friday’s 156.58 high.
GBP traded flat against the USD, before then moving lower in recent trade. Nothing behind the latest bout of pressure, but it does come after Cable breached 1.3200 to the downside, and then continued to tumble to make a fresh trough at 1.3180 (though it is a moving target).
AUD outperforms after ANZ removed its call for an RBA cut in H1-2026, now sees the RBA on an “extended pause” through 2026. As a reminder, CBA and NAB also expect the RBA to be on hold for an extended period of time/foreseeable future. Westpac continues to expect two 2026 cuts, touting May and August for those. AUD/NZD marginally eclipsed 1.1450, from a 1.1418 trough.

Fixed Income

A lack of fresh drivers for USTs. The March contract is near-enough flat in a narrow 112-25 to 112-29 band. Overnight, WSJ’s Timiraos wrote that, regarding the search for the next Fed Chair, “Unofficially, the process seems to be all but over, with President Trump appearing to favour longtime adviser Kevin Hassett.”.
Bund Dec’25 is contained in a thin 128.18-35 band this morning. Specifics light. No move in Bunds on the EZ Flash HICP for November, the headline came in hotter-than-expected and ticked up from the prior, while Services lifted from the previous rate. Overall, the hotter-than-expected series chimes with the view that the ECB’s easing cycle has likely concluded.
Gilts underperform. If the move continues, we look to support for the Gilt Mar’26 contract at 90.53, a double-bottom from the session of and before the Budget. Currently, the low is 90.98, taking out Monday’s base by a tick. A move that lifted the UK 10yr yield back above the 4.5% mark. However, this pressure proved somewhat fleeting as the benchmark bounced and has made its way back to the unchanged mark. Nothing fresh, though the OBR briefing is underway and we note remarks from BoE officials on the morning’s FSR/FPC briefings.
Saudi National Bank is seeking a USD 1bln syndicated loan, via Bloomberg. Loan is being syndicated to the broader market, incl. Asia, according to sources cited.
JGB’s led overnight after a strong 10yr auction and in a bit of a breather from the largely Ueda-induced selling seen at the start of the week. To a 134.72 peak with gains of just over 20 ticks at best.
UK sells GBP 1bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.88x (prev. 3.49x), real yield 0.949% (prev. 0.889%)
Germany sells EUR 3.563bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.7x (prev. 1.7x), average yield 2.05% (prev. 1.98%), retention 20.82% (prev. 24.68%)

Commodities

WTI and Brent continue to trade within Monday’s post-OPEC range of USD 58.83-59.97/bbl and USD 62.69-63.82/bbl, respectively, as a pause in output hike and rising geopolitical concerns continue to support crude prices in the near term. WTI and Brent peaked at the start of the APAC session at USD 59.67/bbl and 63.36/bbl before falling to troughs of 59.09/bbl and 62.88/bbl.
XAU and XAG traded muted at the start of the European session. Oscillated in a tight USD 4201-4236/oz and USD 56.60-58/oz band, respectively. More recently, the yellow metal has fallen to make fresh session troughs of USD 4,181/oz – a move which lacked catalysts, but technicians highlight accelerating selling pressure after spot gold slipped below USD 4.2k/oz.
3M LME Copper gapped lower and fell to a trough of USD 11.12k/t before rebounding to a session high of USD 11.27k/t as global risk tone slightly turns around following Monday’s selloff.

Geopolitics: Middle East

Arab media reported new Israeli attacks in Khan Yunis and Rafah, according to Iran International.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

European Commission proposals for the Ukraine reparation loan should be distributed to member states tomorrow, and likely first discussion by EU ambassadors on Friday, according to Radio Liberty journalist
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday.
Russia’s Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says US Special Envoy Witkoff and President Putin will discuss the understanding reached between the US and Ukraine, in a meeting at 14:00GMT/09:00EST, via TASS. S-400 and SU-57 fighter jets will be on the agenda.

Geopolitics: Other

Venezuelan President Maduro reportedly asked for sanction removal for more than 100 officials during a previous call with US President Trump. Furthermore, Trump gave Maduro a Friday deadline to leave Venezuela with his family, while the failure to meet the Friday deadline prompted Trump’s comments on Saturday about the closure of airspace, according to sources cited by Reuters.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury is investigating allegations that Minnesota tax dollars may have been diverted to Al-Shabaab.
China’s Coast Guard said it expelled a Japanese vessel in the waters of the Senkaku Islands on Tuesday.
“Turkey says oil tanker attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia”, according to Sky News Arabia. However, Sky News Arabia later clarifies, “Turkey says cargo ship attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia”.
Japan’s Defence Minister Koizumi is considering a visit to the US as early as mid-January to hold talks with War Secretary Hegseth, via Kyodo.

US Event Calendar

Nov Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 15.4m, prior 15.32m
10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Testifies Before House Committee

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets got December off to a rocky start yesterday, with bonds and equities losing ground, alongside a sharp slump in Bitcoin (-5.19%). The moves gathered pace right from the open, as hawkish remarks from BoJ Governor Ueda had already pushed 10yr JGB yields up to a post-GFC high. But that then cascaded across global markets, with bond yields moving sharply higher in the US and Europe too. In the meantime, matters weren’t helped by the latest data, as the ISM manufacturing print leant in a stagflationary direction, whilst higher oil prices only exacerbated those fears. So with all said and done, the S&P 500 (-0.53%) slipped back, whilst 10yr Treasury yields (+7.2bps) saw their biggest daily jump in nearly four weeks.

Those developments in Japan were critical for yesterday’s moves, because Ueda’s comments had led investors to price in a December rate hike from the BoJ as a near-certainty. So that meant bond yields hit a whole bunch of new records, and by the close in Japan yesterday, the 10yr yield (+5.8bps) was at a post-2008 high of 1.86%, whilst the 30yr yield (+4.1bps) was at 3.37%, and the highest since that maturity was first issued in the late-1990s. Similarly at the front end, the 2yr yield closed above 1% for the first time since the GFC. This morning yields on 2yr and 10yr JGBs are both down a basis point after a decent 10yr auction has provided some respite to the bond sell-off. The bid-to-cover ratio was recorded at 3.59, compared to 2.97 at the previous sale in November, and a 12-month average of 3.20.

US futures are also fairly flat, indicating that the sell-off has paused for now. The KOSPI (+1.81%) is leading the way in Asia after rebounding from yesterday and after the US announced that the general tariff rate on imports from South Korea, including automobiles, will decrease to 15% retroactively effective from November 1. In other markets, the Nikkei (+0.24%) is recovering a little this morning after a near two percent decline yesterday, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.11%) is also experiencing modest gains. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+0.13%) is maintaining small gains, in contrast to the CSI (-0.61%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.55%), which are lower after a stronger session on Monday.  

The moves in Japan echoed around the world yesterday, with a sharp bond selloff on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+4.0bps) up to 3.53%, the 10yr yield (+7.2bps) rose to 4.09%, and 30yrs (+7.4bps) to 4.74%. Moreover, those moves got further support from several inflationary indicators, including the ISM manufacturing survey. Admittedly, the headline index unexpectedly fell back to 48.2 (vs. 49.0 expected), but the prices paid component ticked up to 58.5 (vs. 57.5 expected) after a run of 4 consecutive monthly declines. So that exacerbated concerns about tariff-driven inflation persisting. And with oil prices rising (+1.27% for Brent) after Ukraine’s weekend attack against an oil terminal in the Black Sea, the 1yr inflation swap (+1.7bps) also posted a 4th consecutive increase to 2.64%.

That downbeat tone was seen for equities too, where the S&P 500 (-0.53%) fell back after a run of 5 consecutive gains, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.25%) saw an even bigger slump. Nearly three quarters of the S&P constituents were lower on the day, though the index did recover some ground after futures in Asia had suggested an even larger fall. The Mag-7 (-0.10%) outperformed as Nvidia (+1.65%) rebounded from Friday’s -1.81% decline. By contrast, crypto assets suffered, with Bitcoin (-5.19%) falling to $86,446 by the close, and trading below $84k intra-day. Unsurprisingly, that meant there were sizeable losses for crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (-4.76%). Overnight Bitcoin has bounced a little.

Earlier in Europe, markets had followed a very similar pattern, with bonds and equities selling off together. So the STOXX 600 (-0.20%) also fell back after 5 consecutive gains, and there was a particularly sharp decline for the German DAX (-1.04%). And there wasn’t much data capable of boosting the mood either, with the Euro Area manufacturing PMI revised down a tenth from the flash reading to 49.6, so still in contractionary territory. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr bunds (+6.1bps), OATs (+7.5bps) and BTPs (+6.9bps) all moved higher.

Here in the UK, we also heard yesterday that the head of the OBR budget watchdog had resigned, which comes after their analysis of the budget’s contents went live on its website ahead of the Chancellor’s announcement. However, that wasn’t a market moving story, and the rise in 10yr gilt yields (+4.1bps) was more muted than in other countries yesterday, whilst the FTSE 100 (-0.18%) largely matched the STOXX 600. We did get a bit of UK data too, with October mortgage approvals down to 65.0k (vs. 64.5k expected), but that very much kept them within their 60-70k range that they’ve been in for the last 18 months.

Looking forward to today, we’ll see some focus on geopolitics as Trump’s envoy Witkoff is due to meet Russia’s President Putin in Moscow to discuss US proposals to end the war in Ukraine. The visit comes as US-led peace talks intensified over the past couple of weeks with “productive” meetings between US and Ukrainian officials but Kyiv staying resistant to territorial demands that have been made by Moscow.

In terms of the rest of the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for November, with Friday’s country-level releases suggesting that headline and core inflation should be unchanged at 2.1% and 2.4% respectively. We’ll also see the Euro area unemployment rate for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman but with the blackout on it won’t be about monetary policy.

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times,

Retail giant Costco Wholesale Corporation filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government on Nov. 28 in an effort to lay the groundwork for refunds of tariffs collected since President Donald Trump enacted global tariff policies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The complaint filed in the U.S. Court of International Trade in Manhattan argued that the president’s invocation of the act beginning in February illegally imposed tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, Canada, and China. Trump has said that tariffs were justified as a matter of national emergency because of the amount of fentanyl making its way into the United States from those countries, and that the global levies are a necessary tool to negotiate trade deals that level the playing field between the United States and key global trade partners.

The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments regarding Trump’s authorization to invoke the IEEPA in early November. The issue has been fast-tracked, but the justices have not announced when they intend to make a ruling. Costco’s complaint requests a complete refund of duties it has already paid if the Supreme Court decides that the tariffs are unlawful.

Additionally, Costco is seeking “an injunction preventing Defendants from imposing further duties on it under the executive orders challenged in this lawsuit; and full refund from Defendants of all IEEPA duties Plaintiff has already paid to the United States as a result of the executive orders challenged in this lawsuit, as well as those it will continue to pay,” its lawyers wrote.

The complaint was filed after Costco was denied a request for additional time to finalize its tariff calculations assessed on imported goods. That decision could impact the company’s ability to collect a refund in full if the tariffs are invalidated, the company’s lawyers argue.

The lawsuit does not say how much Costco has paid in tariffs; however, revenue from tariffs has soared throughout the year. For fiscal year 2025, the federal government collected nearly $196 billion in duties, taxes, and fees—a 122 percent increase from the prior fiscal year.

On Aug. 29, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled in a 7-4 decision that Trump’s global tariff policies were illegal, sending the case to the nation’s highest court. The tariffs remain in place while the justices consider the case.

More than a dozen states have sued the Trump Administration over the president’s tariff policies. In April, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Vermont filed suit against the president, arguing that only Congress has the power to enact tariff policies. California filed a similar suit.

The states join a growing list of companies that have filed similar suits, including Revlon Consumer Products LLC, Kawasaki Motors Manufacturing Corporation, Bumble Bee, Yokohama Tire, and EssilorLuxottica.

Costco did not immediately respond to a request for comment by The Epoch Times.

Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, said in a statement sent to The Epoch Times: “The economic consequences of the failure to uphold President Trump’s lawful tariffs are enormous and this suit highlights that fact.

“The White House looks forward to the Supreme Court’s speedy and proper resolution of this matter.”

Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange broke out of the post-Thanksgiving trading range and into record-high territory on a massive tariff-driven scramble for supply.

Copper jumped nearly 1% on the LME to $11,294.50/ton, while Comex futures surged 1.6%, blowing out the US-London spread as traders scramble to rush metal into the U.S. ahead of potential Trump-era import tariffs.

The arbitrage continues to pull supply from the rest of the world into the U.S., compounding a year already plagued with unexpected mine outages and tightening fears.

Goldman’s commodity specialist, James McGeoch, commented on this dynamic, calling it a “circular melt-up”:

Post Thanksgiving – breakout in Copper: Have been watching LME, that $11,100 level, now 3 times, it’s felt like a coiled spring, we have seen it in precious this year (Gold, Silver, PGM’s), so why not pivot to the Doctor. As we do just remember commodities are highly emotive, basis the touch point at all levels of life, they rarely move in linear fashion, overreact up and overreact down, look at the awakening in Rare Earths in 2025. Whilst the CESCO feedback from a bottom-up perspective was kinda meh (China -8% QTD, y/y, worth noting YTD +7% y/y to end Oct), it’s the balances that matter. This wasn’t a conference about mine supply, or Chinese Q4 demand, this was dominated by the traders and the desire to purchase and ship into the Comex (U.S.) arb. GS commods sales were on the ground (feedback link), outside China they note EUR demand <2019 and they suggest positioning is 5/10….

I liken this to a “circular melt-up.” The tighter LME gets tighter basis US (CMX arb) pull, the stronger the LME backwardation, which in turn tightens the CMX arb as the forward curve is underpinned by stock builds….. Circular motion – LME stock contraction, CMX arb strengthens…. Those watching supply have for some time been looking at 1H26: Grasberg tightness, Kakalua stockpiles rundown, Codelco friction, Collahuasi weakness, QB sustains lower rates. China smelter utilisation rates at record lows, copper premiums at record highs, TC settlement structures are breaking… there is nothing the Chinese can do about it, and in the meantime the U.S. is sitting whistling Dixie as stocks get onshored, it’s a strategic stockpile, basis the “threat” of tariffs, that they so desperately need and the traders are providing the balance sheet. Who would have thought 12 months ago that the U.S. would be the only game in town when it comes to copper. By luck or by design, Uncle Sam holds all the aces…. I think last week’s move was the hangover of CESCO washing off and traders realising that near term the asymmetry is higher. … Colleagues gone reminded us daily, commodities are spot assets, they are not traded in Excel models, they are art as much as science. Go back to summer, the same traders that owned CMX at 500, sold it at 550/575, the guys that got slammed as the unwind happened were machines. It’s these same buyers today stepping in.

Year-to-date, copper is up 30% on the LME as investors pile in – both on the lucrative U.S. arbitrage trade that is fueling shortages elsewhere, and on long-term structural demand from the “Next AI Trade” and major power-grid buildouts.

Commenting on copper markets, super-bull Kostas Bintas of Mercuria told Bloomberg that the U.S. tariff arbitrage is draining global inventories and is about to ignite another leg higher in prices.

“This is the big one,” Bintas told the media outlet in an interview during an industry conference in Shanghai. “If the world keeps going like this we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world.”

Bintas continued, “Just looking at the facts, mathematically… What is going to happen if all of this continues? There’s only one answer: there will be tightness and a higher price.”

Last March, Bintas forecasted that copper prices could reach $12,000 or $13,000 a ton, driven by U.S. import drawdowns.

“China is, for now at least, not the marginal buyer,” said Nick Snowdon, Mercuria’s head of metals and mining research. “That role has now shifted to the US.”

Bintas noted, “If we run to $12,000 or $15,000 or whatever it is, the SHFE will take time to catch up. You’re going to see a lot of Chinese copper cathodes coming out. And then when the Chinese will come back from Chinese New Year, there will not be enough copper cathodes.” He said more than half a million tons could arrive in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2026.

Related:

Goldman: $10,000 Is New Price Floor For Copper

Earlier this year, Jeff Currie, who led commodities research at Goldman for nearly three decades and now serves as the chief strategy officer of the energy pathways team at Carlyle Group, told Bloomberg’s Odd Lots that copper is the “most compelling trade I’ve seen in my 30-year trading career.”