Futures and bonds jump and oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, as the de-escalation/technical/macro led relief rally continues on hopes of the Middle East conflict reaching an end soon  after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks, and indicated that it was possible that Iran could still reach a deal with the US during that timeframe. Trump has a national address tonight at 9pm ET to discuss Iran, but the content is unclear, with the market is expressing the view that this will be details on a wind-down rather than an escalation. As of 8:15am ET, S&P Futures were 0.7% higher,  after the cash index posted a near 3% advance on Tuesday, the best end to a quarter since September 2008. Nasdaq futures jumped 1.1% with all Mag 7 names higher premarket. European stocks jumped 2.6%, alongside a 4.9% surge in Asian shares. Final Mfg PMIs from the Europe were mixed (EU, Germany, Italy small beats/UK, France small missed) while Japan/Korea Manf PMIs were slightly better. Trump is set to address the nation tonight at 9pm EST and said he expects the war to end in two to three weeks/US would withdraw once Tehran can no longer obtain nuclear weapons. Otherwise, the US is sending a third aircraft carrier to the region, Iran said the US “isn’t serious about diplomacy”, the WSJ reported that the UAE wants to force the Strait of Hormuz open and is willing to join the fight, and attacks continued on both sides with Qatar saying Iran struck an oil tanker.  Brent fell 5.4% before paring the move as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed and attacks continued across the Gulf. Traders trimmed bets on tighter monetary policy, sending two-year Treasury yields three basis points lower to 3.76%. Comparable UK gilt yields dropped 10 basis points to 4.30%. Looking at today’s US economic calendar, we get March ADP employment change (8:15am), February retail sales (8:30am), March final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), March ISM manufacturing and January business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:05am) and Barr (9:10am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +2.1%, Microsoft +1.5%, Amazon +0.9%, Nvidia +1.4%, Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.9%, Apple +0.5%) 

Li Auto ADRs (LI) rise 4% after the Chinese EV firm reported March vehicle deliveries that surpassed its own guidance and analyst estimates.
MSC Industrial (MSM) falls 6% after the distributor of metalworking products reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
NCino (NCNO) jumps 24% after the cloud-banking software company’s subscription revenue forecast for 2027 beat the average analyst estimate.
Nike (NKE) falls 10% after the retailer gave a surprisingly gloomy outlook for the year ahead, complicating Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill’s efforts to turn around the business.
RH (RH) plunges 17% after the home furnishing company forecast revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
Oric Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) slides 21% after the clinical-stage oncology company gave safety and efficacy data from an early-stage trial of its drug-candidate for prostate cancer that underwhelmed Wall Street.
Target Hospitality (TH) rises 24% after the provider of modular housing announced secured a multi-year contract worth more than $550 million. The company will construct and provide hospitality services for a hyperscaler’s data center development in North Texas.

In other corporate news, Microsoft is in exclusive talks with Chevron and investment fund Engine No. 1 over a long-term deal for a giant energy complex in West Texas to power a large data center campus. A number of Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxis suddenly stopped on the streets of China’s Wuhan city,  leaving passengers stranded and raising concerns about the safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology.

In AI, Anthropic inadvertently released source code for its popular Claude AI agent, OpenAI completed a deal to raise $122 billion from investors at an $852 billion valuation, marking the company’s largest funding round to date. Perplexity AI was accused of sharing the personal information of its users with Meta and Google. 

A wave of global equity optimism fueled by his comments suggesting the war could end soon is not getting the “all clear” that might have been expected after such a brisk rally. Gains are likely to be tempered by a persistent energy geopolitical risk premium, supply chain disruption and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Taders said it would take time for oil flows to return to normal even if the war ends within Trump’s timeframe, especially given the damage to some energy facilities. Trump’s team has also suggested that reopening the Hormuz strait, which carries 20% of global crude, may not be necessary to end the hostilities.

“The correlation between Brent oil prices and global equity markets has been exceptionally strong since the conflict started,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “This goes to show that a return to previous equity market highs would need the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and oil prices to drop significantly. It is probably too early for an all-clear yet.”

Trump, who will give an address at 9 p.m. Eastern Time to provide an “important update” on Iran, said the Islamic Republic could still reach a deal with the US. He added, however, that an agreement with Tehran isn’t a prerequisite to conclude the war. 

“We are seeing a relief rally, and with more information we may see a reversal, so we just need to be careful here,” Remi Olu-Pitan, multi-asset growth and income head at Schroders, told Bloomberg TV. “There’s still a lot of volatility, the market is still fragile.”

Pension fund rebalancing at the end of the quarter, short squeeze risk, de-escalation bets and hedge fund equity disposals could all play their part in the moves. Option positioning suggested a sudden conflict resolution could trigger an unwinding, and accelerate a collapse in implied volatility.  “It’s not over till it’s over,” cautions ING’s Vincent Juvyns, who views it premature to dive back in to the market with the impacts of the conflict taking months to clear. 

In politics, Wall Street’s biggest private credit houses — including Blackstone and Ares  — are facing pointed questions from Congress. Malta, known as ‘blockchain island,’ is opposing EU plans to centralize crypto supervision under the ESMA.

European stocks are rallying, with the Stoxx 600 up 2% as markets look toward a potential resolution to the Iran conflict. Banks as well as travel and leisure shares are leading gains, while the energy sector is the biggest laggard.  Stoxx 600 rises 2.2% to 595.73 with 65 members down, 532 up, and 3 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

Athens Stock Exchange Index rises as much as 4.3% at Wednesday open, following index provider MSCI’s decision to upgrade the Greek market to developed status
Thule rises as much as 5.7% after SEB Equities upgrades to hold, removing the only sell rating on the maker of roof and bike racks, to reflect “more reasonable expectations” now baked into the stock
Sandoz shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most in five weeks, after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation
Inficon gains as much as 8.1%, the most since Jan. 15, as JPMorgan starts coverage at overweight, saying the vacuum instrument maker should be a beneficiary of the multiyear upcycle in wafer fabrication equipment
Arcadis shares rise as much as 6.6%, the most in six months, after Bank Degroof Petercam upgraded the engineering services firm on expectation that the new management team will be able to drive a recovery
Jungheinrich shares rise as much as 9.8%, their steepest ascent in around a year, as Bernstein boosts its price target on the German machinery company, citing enticing long-term prospects
Nordex falls as much as 3.8% after Bank of America downgraded the German wind turbine manufacturer to neutral from buy following a 56% year-to-date rally that the bank says has priced in most of the bull case
Berkeley Group shares plunge as much as 19% to hit a nine-year low, after the housebuilder’s profit goal for the FY27 to FY30 period significantly undershot expectations
SoftwareONE shares drop as much as 8.9%, hitting a seven-month low, after an investor offloaded shares at a discount to yesterday’s closing price. Shares have fallen below the offer price this morning
Cirsa Enterprises drops as much as 5% after one of its investors offloaded shares at a discount to Tuesday’s closing price. The stock is holding above the offer price on Wednesday

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his government will coordinate a diplomatic push for the strait’s reopening, affirming Britain’s desire not to be dragged into the military conflict. “I would expect further volatility in the days to come and the market to oscillate between losses and gains for a few more sessions until we get clarity on how the crisis unfolds,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG Markets. “This is likely more a temporary respite than a final game changer.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks jumped the most in nearly a year, tracking Wall Street’s rally on optimism that the war in Iran may end in the near future.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 5.2%, the most since April 10, with shares in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan leading the gains. Technology giants Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. provided the biggest boost to the gauge’s advance. Asian markets would stand to gain more than others if the US manages to defuse the war with Iran, as investors unwind an energy‑driven risk premium that has hit the region harder than most. The conflict has pushed oil prices sharply higher, driving equity sell‑offs and currency volatility across Asia’s oil‑importing economies. Still, the regional gauge remains  down about 9% from a peak in February, with investors questioning how quickly oil can fall and how credible Trump’s assurances are. Market focus will now shift to an “important update” on Iran that Trump is scheduled to deliver at 9 p.m. Washington time. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.4%, while Treasury yields dropped four basis across the curve. Swaps imply 11 basis points of Federal Reserve rate reductions by year-end, compared to 5bps on Tuesday. EUR/USD up as much as 0.5% to 1.1611, while GBP/USD up as much as 0.6% to 1.3301. USD/CHF drops 0.8% to 0.7928, EUR/CHF down 0.5% to 0.9190; leveraged desks seen unwinding franc shorts, a Europe-based trader says

In rates, fixed income markets have rallied but lost a bit of steam in recent trade. US yields are around 3bps lower across the curve as markets assign a 40% chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end versus a 64% chance of a hike last week. Treasury futures are off session highs in early US session, although yields remain 2bp-4bp lower across a steeper curve. US 10-year is about 3bp richer on the day near 4.29%, while 5s30s spread is steeper by ~1bp. Gilts outperform, with UK front-end yields richer by 8bp as oil broadly holds losses. Investors face the prospect that US President Trump, slated to speak at 9 p.m. in Washington, will soon declare an end to the war in Iran.

In commodities, despite the optimism in stocks, crude prices have faded declines in the European session. Brent is now back above $100 per barrel having earlier dropped below the key level. WTI crude oil contract has pared a 4.8% slump to about 2.5%, and was last trading just around $99. Precious metals are diverging, with spot gold up 1.4% and silver down 0.5%. Bitcoin has added 0.5%. 

Looking at today’s US economic calendar, we get March ADP employment change (8:15am), February retail sales (8:30am), March final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), March ISM manufacturing and January business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:05am) and Barr (9:10am)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +0.9%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8%
Russell 2000 mini +1.4%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
DAX +0.7%
CAC 40 +0.5%
10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.32%
VIX -1.7 points at 28.87
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1221.56
euro little changed at $1.147
WTI crude -0.9% at $101.92/barrel

Top Overnight News

Trump will deliver a speech on Wednesday at 9 p.m. Washington time to give an update about the war in Iran: BBG
Oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks. The US would withdraw once Tehran can no longer obtain nuclear weapons, he said. Attacks continued across the Middle East. Qatar said a cruise missile from Iran struck an oil tanker. BBG 
The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks. WSJ 
Trump said he’s strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it didn’t join the war on Iran. He told the Telegraph that leaving the block was now “beyond reconsideration.” BBG 
California is confronting sky-high petrol prices and the threat of jet fuel shortages because of disruption caused by the Iran war, exposing US energy insecurity as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The most populous US state is vulnerable to the turmoil in world energy markets because it relies on imports of refined products such as petrol and jet fuel from Asia after introducing ambitious plans to phase out fossil fuels and significantly reduce refining capacity in favor of renewables. Californians pay the most for petrol in the country, with a gallon averaging $5.88 — the highest level since the pandemic — compared to $4.01 in the rest of the US, according to the American Automobile Association. FT 
Russia exported more liquefied natural gas in the first quarter of 2026 than it did a year earlier, with shipments to Europe increasing despite Moscow’s push to redirect supply away from the region. RTRS 
China’s factory activity slowed in March for export-oriented firms as their costs surged, according to RatingDog’s PMI. That contrasts with an official gauge that showed manufacturing improving despite the Iran war. BBG 
Chinese government bonds have sidestepped a global debt sell-off since the start of the Iran war, as the world’s second-biggest economy emerges as a haven from soaring energy prices and rising global inflation. Investors are betting that whereas major central banks in the US and Europe will be forced to keep interest rates at higher levels than previously expected to counter inflation triggered by rising oil and gas prices, China will be relatively insulated thanks to its energy mix and very low inflation before the conflict. FT 
Japan may face stagflation risks from the Iran war that would be challenging to deal with using monetary policy, new Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada said on Wednesday. RTRS 
Trump signs executive order related to mail-in voting, said working on proof of citizenship and that voter ID and citizenship proof are subjects for another time.
OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation in its largest funding round yet. BBG 
Since the start of the Iran war, market pricing for the fed funds rate has swung sharply, and it now implies a roughly 45% chance that the FOMC will hike in 2026. While some of this reflects changing demand for insurance against the tail risk of more hikes, the market-implied probability that the FOMC delivers 1-2 cuts—the modal case before the war—has declined from 35-40% to about 18%. Expectations for other central banks have moved even more, and market pricing now implies about 70bp of hikes from the ECB in 2026, compared to 8bp of cuts before the war
Trump asks CPA for lists of insurers who were good to clients, and list who were bad in response to California fires.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly rallied with global risk sentiment buoyed by hopes for an end to the Iran conflict following encouraging comments from the US and Iran, while President Trump also suggested that the war could end in 2 or 3 weeks, and he will deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday evening to give an important update regarding Iran. ASX 200 gained at the open and was led by outperformance in mining, materials, resources and tech, with nearly all sectors in the green aside from some defensives, while the index also shrugged off weak PMIs. Nikkei 225 surged back above the 53,000 level amid hopes of a nearing end to the conflict and after the latest BoJ Tankan survey mostly topped forecasts, with the headline large manufacturing index at its highest in more than five years. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad upbeat mood across the region with notable strength seen in mining, tech and biopharmaceuticals, while a miss on Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and the smallest PBoC injection in more than a decade failed to derail the momentum.

Top Asian News

Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.8 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.1, Low. 50.5, High. 53).
Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) 17 vs. Exp. 16 (Prev. 15, Low. 8, High. 18).
Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q1) 36 vs. Exp. 33 (Prev. 34, Low. 28, High. 36)
Japanese Tankan Small Manufacturers Index (Q1) 7 vs. Exp. 7 (Prev. 6, Low. -1, High. 9)
Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 14 vs. Exp. 13 (Prev. 15, Low. 5, High. 15)
Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 29 vs. Exp. 28 (Prev. 28, Low. 24, High. 34)
Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Q1) 3.3% vs. Exp. 13% (Prev. 12.6%)

European bourses (STOXX 600 +2.1%) continue to rebound, printing a third straight day of gains thus far. The positive was helped following reports that Iranian officials are leaning towards dialogue, while President Trump said that the war is coming to an end. European sectors are entirely in the green, ex. Energy. Banks and Travel and Leisure top the sector pile. Oil prices have been the main driver for airlines, with the drop in energy prices making jet fuel cheaper. Banks have been hit throughout the Iran war, so the prospects of it coming to an end have boosted the sector. To add, HSBC was added to Goldman Sachs’ European conviction list.

Top European News

Germany’s VDMA said German Engineering Orders -8% in Dec-Feb Y/Y (Domestic Orders -6%, Foreign Orders -8%).
German Economic Institutes confirm cutting 2026 and 2027 GDP growth forecasts.
UK government said new measures to ease cost of living pressure to come into force on April 1st. Increasing national living wage to £12.71. Energy bills are to be cut by average £117 a year for millions across the UK and locked in until end of June.

FX

DXY is on the backfoot this morning with markets pricing in a “de-escalation” trade, after US President Trump said to NBC News regarding the Iran war that “it is coming to an end”, with a White House official suggesting Trump is confident an agreement will be reached soon. Interestingly, from the Iranian side, President Pezeshkian noted that Iran seeks to end the war with guarantees against further attacks. DXY currently holds at the lower end of a 99.41-99.88 range. It is worth highlighting that the index saw some strength after the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said that the “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation”.
G10s are entirely stronger against the USD, albeit to varying degrees. The CHF outperforms, benefiting from lower energy prices – the likes of GBP and EUR also benefit. For the GBP specifically, the UK government confirmed new measures to ease the cost of living pressure are to come into force today, including an increase in the national living wage to GBP 12.71 and with energy bills to be cut by an average GBP 117 a year for millions across the UK, which will be locked in until end of June.
JPY also gains vs USD, albeit to a lesser degree vs peers. The seemingly easing Iran tensions has benefited the JPY, which builds on the strength seen in recent sessions, facilitated by jawboning and a hawkish-leaning BoJ SOO earlier this week. As for today, Japan’s Tankan survey was mostly stronger-than-expected, which supports the case for an April BoJ rate hike. USD/JPY currently trades within a narrow 158.27-159.01 range.

Central Banks

BoJ new Board Member Asada does not comment on any specific stance. Rising oil prices put upward pressure on inflation while weighing on growth, creating a stagflationary trend.
ECB’s Stournaras said if oil prices rise over USD 150/bbl Europe could face a recession.
ECB’s Dolenc said ECB’s adverse scenario is more likely to be the next baseline and current baseline is more like the best-case scenario.

Fixed Income

An overall positive start in the fixed income benchmarks, with energy prices falling and higher hopes of a potential end to the Iran conflict. President Trump stated that the war is coming to an end, while a White House official said that the President is confident that an agreement will be reached soon.
USTs are trading at the upper end of a 111-10 to 111-14+ range, albeit off best levels, as energy prices rebound slightly. Price action is set to remain rangebound ahead of a flurry of data and Fed speak, while Trump is set to speak at 21:00EDT/02:00BST.
Bunds, in tandem with its peers, are gaining and currently holding above the 126 handle. The 10yr yield extends further below 3.0%, printing a trough at 2.933% before bouncing slightly. EZ final manufacturing PMI ticked slightly higher above the prelim. Figure but failed to drive any move in EGBs. In addition, ECB speakers reiterated the impact higher energy prices have on the European economy.
Gilts outperform, continuing to be the beneficiary of lower energy prices, as BoE pricing remains sensitive to oil prices. Pricing for rate hikes have pulled back, now price in 44bps of hikes in 2026.
Germany sells EUR 3.025bln vs exp. EUR 4.0bln 2.50% 2032 Bund: b/c 1.11x (prev. 1.51x), average yield 2.78% (prev. 2.60%), retention 24.3% (prev. 20.1%).

Commodities

In geopolitics, optimism was seen on Tuesday over a potential end to the war, particularly following Trump’s overnight comments that the US could leave Iran in two to three weeks. This follows reports that the US could exit Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump calling on users of the strait to secure it themselves. Trump is due to make an announcement tonight at 21:00 EDT/02:00 BST. Some of yesterday’s optimism waned after commentary from the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament, who said: “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation, and there will be no negotiation.”
WTI and Brent initially dipped to lows of USD 96.50/bbl and USD 98.35/bbl respectively as markets initially continued the move from yesterday, although a floor was later found on the Iranian deputy speaker comments, with Brent back above USD 100/bbl and WTI near USD 99/bbl at the time of writing, both still lower intraday by over USD 2/bbl apiece. Dutch TTF prices are softer once again after slipping over 7% in the prior session, with desks citing favourable weather alongside hopes of an Iranian war de-escalation.
Spot gold is slightly firmer amid the softer USD and lower oil prices, with the yellow metal back above its 100 DMA (4,642.48/oz) in a current USD 4,661.61-4,747.77/oz parameter. Conversely, spot silver is softer on the day following yesterday’s +7% gains, with the metal today finding resistance near its 100 DMA (USD 75.22/oz).
Base metals mostly eke out mild gains in what is seemingly a function of the USD alongside recent positive sentiment amid hopes of a de-escalation of the Iranian situation. 3M LME copper resides in a current USD 12,380.00- 12,499.75/t range after finding resistance around USD 12,500/t.
IEA Chief Birol says more than 12mln BPD of oil supply has been lost so far due to the Middle East crisis; the current crisis is worse than the 1970s oil shocks and the loss of Russian gas in 2022 combined. Oil supply losses in April are expected to be twice as high as in March. Biggest problem is a lack of jet fuel and diesel, already affecting Asia and coming to Europe in April–May.
UK PM Starmer said the fuel duty will remain where it is until September.
South Korea has raised its energy disruption alert to the second-highest level due to the possible crude oil supply crisis, via Yonhap.
US extended a Russian oil transit license via Kazakhstan to China until March 2027, according to IFX cites Kazakh Energy Ministry.
US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +10.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -10.4mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing +0.8mln.

Trade/Tariffs

India grants one-time customs duty relief for goods made in special economic zone and sold into domestic market.
US is rushing to put in place a system to pay back USD 166bln it collected now after Trump tariffs were ruled to be unconstitutional, according to Nikkei.

Geopolitics

US President Trump said he is strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it failed to join his war on Iran, The Telegraph reported.
US President Trump tells NBC News on Iran war “it is coming to an end”.
US advisers who speak regularly with the US President are reportedly uncertain about the mixed signals from Trump, according to Axios. “Some Trump aides and allies say he’s mostly improvising rather than following any clear plan”. “Aides have been convinced at various points that Trump was leaning toward a major escalation, and at others that he was eager for a swift resolution. “Nobody knows in the end what he’s really thinking,” a senior adviser said.”.
US Secretary of State Rubio said have largely destroyed Iran’s air force and can see the finish line with Iran objectives, adds end to Iran war is not today, not tomorrow but it is coming. said:. There’s nothing any country is doing to help Iran that is in any way impeding our mission. There is potential for a direct meeting with Iran at some point. US is to re-examine NATO ties post-Iran war.
Iranian Foreign Minister, when asked about the status of negotiations with the US, said “No decision has been made yet. We have many considerations. Our conditions for ending the war are very clear. We do not accept the ceasefire; We seek a complete end”.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi reiterates Strait of Hormuz is closed to countries at war with Iran and said the US President must change his approach, also noted that a guarantee from 1-2 countries or from the UN Security Council is not enough. Iran has no plans for negotiations with the US. We are ready for any ground threat and are ready for at least six months of war.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has zero trust in the US and dismisses the effectiveness of any potential ground operation targeting Iran.
Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation”, Fars reported.
Iran began a new round of missile attacks against Israeli positions, according to SNN.
Yemeni Houthi spokesperson claims a joint attack with Hezbollah against Israel, said the escalations will only drive Yemen “to further escalation in the coming period until the aggression stops and the blockade is lifted”.
Daily Mail columnist Andrew Neil posted “I am told by White House sources that Trump is seriously considering taking Kharg Island”.
Iran began a new round of missile attacks against Israeli positions, according to SNN.
Iranian drone reportedly strikes US Victoria base in Baghdad, according to Fars news agency.
Israeli military identified launch of missile from Yemen towards Israel.
US and Israel attacked weather facilities of Bushehr again, via ISNA.
Reports of a drone attack on an oil field in the “Chamanke” region, located in the north of Dohuk province in Iraqi Kurdistan; attack caused a fire in this oil field. The field is managed by an American company, Fars News reported.
Reports of explosions in Saudi Arabia; reporting in proximity to Saudi announcing the interception of two drones in the last few hours.
Qatari Defence said a cruise missile struck an oil tanker chartered for QatarEnergy in the economic waters, Al Arabiya reported.
United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to WSJ.
Powerful explosion rocks American base in Erbil, according to Press TV.
Iran’s Mobarakeh steel plant hit in US-Israel strike and Khuzestan steel plant also targeted, Mehr News reported.
UK PM Starmer reaffirmed that the war in the Middle East is not our war and will not be dragged into the conflict. Exploring every diplomatic avenue to reopen Hormuz.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin told TASS that talks on Ukraine are on pause.

US Event Calendar

9:00 am: United States Jan FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
9:45 am: United States Mar MNI Chicago PMI, est. 55, prior 57.7
10:00 am: United States Mar Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 87.9, prior 91.2
10:00 am: United States Feb JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6890k, prior 6946k
12:00 pm: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks at Eco Mobility Project
1:10 pm: United States Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook
3:00 pm: United States Fed’s Barr Discusses Stablecoin Regulation
5:10 pm: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Small Business

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

What had been a torrid month of March for markets ended on a positive note yesterday, as the S&P 500 (+2.91%) posted its best day since last May as comments by US and Iranian officials drove hopes that an end to the Iran war could be coming closer into view. The increased optimism boosted a variety of asset classes including credit (-18bps for US HY spreads) and gold (+3.48%). Oil markets themselves saw more modest relief given still very uncertain prospects for the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude falling -3.18% yesterday but trading +1.36% higher at $105.21/bbl this morning. Meanwhile, US officials have joined in suggesting that the US may look for an offramp before long, with Secretary of State Rubio saying last night that the US “can see the finish line” on Iran objectives. And the White House posted last night that Trump will address the nation at 9pm EST today “to provide an important update on Iran”. S&P 500 futures (+0.20%) have solidified yesterday’s gains, while those on the Europe’s STOXX 50 (+1.80%) are catching up to yesterday’s US rally, having risen by a more modest +0.50% yesterday.

The biggest trigger for yesterday’s rally came shortly after the European close as Iran’s state news agency reported Iranian President Pezeshkian saying that Iran is willing to end the war but only if there are guarantees “to prevent the recurrence of aggression”. While it wasn’t clear if these comments represented a material change in Iran’s position – indeed, in large part they reiterated demands floated by Tehran last week – they helped drive an extension of the rally that emerged amid signals that the US may be looking for offramps out of the war.

The latest US comments then saw Trump say last night that he foresees ending the war “within two weeks, maybe three” and that while a deal with Iran was possible, such an agreement was not necessary for the US to end the conflict. Trump also suggested that “we’re not going to have anything to do with” what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to a cacophony of signals that the US did not see reopening Hormuz as necessary to end the war. These ranged from the WSJ report we mentioned yesterday morning to Trump’s post earlier yesterday that countries who are reliant on energy from the Gulf should “go to the Strait and just TAKE IT” as well as his comments to the New York Post that the waterway would open “automatically” after the US leaves.

Oil prices moved lower following the Pezeshkian comments but are a little higher again this morning. WTI crude in particular saw modest moves in aggregate, down -1.46% yesterday to $101.38/bbl, after almost reaching $107/bbl in Asia trading yesterday, but edging back up to $103.19/bbl this morning as Trump’s comments overnight left plenty of uncertainty over Hormuz, especially if there isn’t a negotiated settlement. When it comes to talks, Iran’s Foreign Minister told Aljazeera yesterday that while there has been an exchange of messages with the US, these were not “negotiations”.

By contrast, US equities delivered a stunning rebound as the S&P 500 rose by +2.91%, its best day since May 12 last year, the day that US and China agreed to defuse their post-Liberation Day tariff escalation. The NASDAQ (+3.83%) and the Mag-7 (+4.48%) outperformed as tech stocks led the gains, while the S&P 500 airlines sector rebounded by +5.77%. The rally was also a broad one, with 421 advancers in the S&P 500, the most year-to-date, while the VIX index (-5.36pts to 25.25) saw its biggest daily decline since last April.

The positive mood has fed into Asian hours overnight, with key Asia indices also rebounding strongly. The KOSPI (+7.73%) is leading the way, also boosted by strong export data, while the Nikkei is up +4.58%. The Hang Seng (+1.97%), CSI (+1.43%), Shanghai Composite (+1.36%) and the S&P/ASX 200 +1.90% are also visibly higher.

The risk-on mood has also been visible across other asset classes, with US HY credit spreads tightening by -18bps yesterday, also their best day since last May’s US-China trade truce. Elsewhere, gold rose +3.48% to $4,668/oz in its best day since early February, while the dollar index fell -0.55% and is another -0.17% overnight.

In the rates space, Treasuries extended Monday’s rally, with the 2yr yield down -3.4bps to 3.80% and the 10yr down -3.1bps to 4.32%. 10yr yields are another -2.7bps lower overnight, which leaves them almost 20bps down from their 4.48% intra-day peak on Friday. Meanwhile, this morning in Asia, 10yr JGBs are -2.8bps lower at 2.32%.

European bonds also rallied yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds down -3.0bps to 3.00%, while OATs (-4.5bps) and BTPs (-7.6bps) outperformed amid the risk on moves. The bond rally was also aided by the March euro area HICP print which saw both headline (+2.5% yoy) core inflation (+2.3%) come in a tenth below consensus. Gilts were a relative underperformer, with 10yr yields down a modest -1.7bps as the final Q4 GDP release saw 2025 real GDP growth revised up from +1.3% to +1.4%.

Yesterday’s cross-asset rally came at the end of what has been a pretty torrid month and quarter for markets, as you can see in our regular performance review that Henry will be publishing shortly. Clearly the Iran conflict dominated the agenda, with Q1 seeing the biggest quarterly rise in Brent crude oil since Q3 1990 when the Gulf War began. It also triggered a major cross-asset selloff, and March saw Europe’s STOXX 50 post its biggest monthly decline since the first Covid lockdowns in March 2020, whilst 10yr Treasury yields had their biggest monthly jump since December 2024. So nearly all the major assets struggled, and there were plenty of other stories to look out for too. In fact, the software component of the S&P 500 saw its biggest quarterly decline since the height of the GFC in 2008, whilst March saw gold’s biggest monthly decline since 2008 as well. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.

Recapping yesterday’s other news, we saw mixed data out of the US. On the positive side, the Conference Board consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in in March to 91.8 (versus 91.0 previous, 87.9 expected). So US consumer sentiment is proving relatively resilient in the face of the Iran shock, even if the expectations series did deteriorate from 72.6 to 70.9 (vs. 68.4 expected). However, the February JOLTS employment survey was on the softer side, with job openings largely in line with expectations but the quits rate edging down from 2.0% to 1.9% and layoffs rising to a 4-month high of 1,721k (vs 1,668k expected).

Turning to the data out of Asia this morning, in China the RatingDog manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 in March, down from 52.1 in February and below the expected 51.6. Rising oil prices contributed to increased cost pressures, dragging from the strong momentum in February. Meanwhile in Japan, the BoJ’s Tankan survey improved for a fourth consecutive quarter, with sentiment among large manufacturers rising to +17 from +16 in December. Companies are also signaling a larger-than-expected increase in capital expenditure though they are more cautious about the future.

Finally, turning to the day ahead, the final manufacturing PMIs for March will be the highlight on the data side. In the US, we’ll also have the latest weekly ADP employment figures and the February retail sales data. Among central banks, the Fed’s Musalem and Barr and ECB’s Cipollone are due to speak.

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

Two AH-64 Apache helicopter crews were suspended, then quickly unsuspended Tuesday after they hovered next to Kid Rock’s “Southern White House” home in Nashville on Saturday.

The long-time country rock musician posted a video of the fly-by on X, showing him clapping and saluting the helicopter crews, whose suspension was a discretionary step for an investigation, the Army said in a statement Tuesday.

Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth pulled that suspension later the same day.

“Thank you [Kid Rock]. [U.S. Army] pilots suspension LIFTED. No punishment. No investigation. Carry on, patriots,” Hegseth wrote on X.

Prior to the secretary’s announcement, the army released a statement about the Saturday fly-by.

“The Army has confirmed that on March 28, two Apache helicopters from the 101st Combat Aviation Brigade at Fort Campbell conducted a flight in the Nashville area that has attracted public and media attention,” the Army said.

Kid Rock’s video on X, which he captioned with a grateful message to the U.S. military and a jab at California Gov. Gavin Newsom, has garnered more than 10 million views as of this publication.

Standing next to a replica of the Statue of Liberty, Kid Rock claps, salutes, and raises his fist as one of the helicopters hovers near his pool. The second helicopter can be seen zipping by in the background of a second video post on X.

Trump commented on the Army’s suspension of the crews, telling reporters in the Oval Office, “They probably shouldn’t have been doing it … You’re not supposed to be playing games.

“But I’ll take a look at it. You like Kid Rock? I like Kid Rock. Maybe they were trying to defend him—I don’t know.”

Kid Rock, whose real name is Robert James Ritchie, told a local Nashville station that it’s not uncommon for helicopters from nearby Fort Campbell to pass near his 27,000-square-foot mansion.

“I think they know this is a pretty friendly spot,” he told WKRN. “I’ve talked to some of these pilots. I’ve told them, ‘You guys see me waving when you come by the house?’ I’m like, ‘You guys are always welcome to cruise by my house, any time.’”

“If it makes their day a little brighter for their service to our country, protecting us, I think that’s a great thing.”

Singer Kid Rock holds an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on March 31, 2025. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

When asked about possible repercussions for the pilots and rest of the crew, he said, “I think they’re going to be all right. My buddy’s the commander in chief.”

Kid Rock has openly befriended President Donald Trump and endorsed him for years, performing at multiple Republican events including the 2024 Republican National Convention and Turning Point USA’s alternative “All-American Halftime Show.”

As the Army continues its investigation, it said it will review the circumstances surrounding the day’s events, compliance with protocols, and approval requirements.

The helicopter crews were on a training mission when they stopped by Kid Rock’s “Southern White House” residence, Maj. Jonathan Bless, a public affairs officer for the 101st Airborne Division, said. They also flew over a “No Kings” protest against Trump that day, but their presence had nothing to do with the gathering, Bless added.

“Appropriate action will be taken if any violations are found. Until the review is complete, there will ​be no further comment,” a previous statement from the Army said.

Hiring and pay gains both held steady in March.

The ADP National Employment report printed a better than expected +62k jobs added in March (+40k exp) and modestly down from an upwardly revised 66k in February.

That is the ninth straight month of job gains.

Source: Bloomberg

The smallest employers drove job growth for a second month, while hiring in trade, transportation, and utilities continued to decline.

“Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care. In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers,” said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

“In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers.”

Additionally, pay for job-stayers rose 4.5% in March Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged for the third month. For job-changers, year-over-year pay gains accelerated to 6.6%…

Certainly no signs yet of the AI displacement as the no hire, no fire (after JOLTS and Claims) economy chugs along.

Summary

UAE mulls becoming first Gulf country to directly joint US-Israeli war against Iran, lobbies for firm UNSC security resolution.

Trump open to exiting ‘paper tiger’ NATO after Iran war is over, angry over lack of help in Hormuz crisis.

Oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters Wednesday.

IRGC has newly vowed to keep attacking with “full intensity and power” – suggesting this is far from over, as ceasefire talks remain theater lacking in much substance.

*  *  *

First Gulf Country to Directly Join War?

The small but wealthy country of United Arab Emirates appears to be edging toward open confrontation, with Arab officials saying it is preparing to join the US and allied powers in forcibly reopening the Strait of Hormuz after absorbing Iranian strikes. If so, the move would mark the first time a Persian Gulf state formally enters the conflict as a combatant. Behind the scenes Abu Dhabi is reportedly pushing hard at the UN, lobbying for a Security Council resolution to legitimize military action, while simultaneously urging Washington and its European and Asian partners to assemble a coalition willing to act, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

At the same time, the UAE is quietly assessing what it can bring to the fight, from mine-clearing operations to broader logistical and naval support aimed at securing the vital shipping lane. But the ambitions don’t stop there, amid an opportunity to settle old grievances and a territory dispute. Gulf sources say the Emiratis are also floating a far more aggressive idea: that the US should seize key islands in the waterway, including Abu Musa – held by Iran for decades but claimed by the UAE.

However, the fine print is important here…

Headline: The UAE is “ready to join the fight” to open Strait of Hormuz!

Article text: The UAE would like to put American troops in harm’s way while Emiratis provide “support services.” https://t.co/loAwKtQGdm pic.twitter.com/WLy2OHClDp

— Eli Clifton (@EliClifton) April 1, 2026

Trump Mulls NATO Exit

In an interview with The Telegraph newspaper, the president described the alliance as “paper tiger” and, when asked if he would reconsider American membership in the bloc, Trump responded: “Oh yes, I would say [it’s] beyond reconsideration.”

“I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way,” he said, in the remarks published Wednesday. He’s of course angry at refusal of allies to join a military campaign to force back open the Strait of Hormuz.

“Beyond not being there, it was actually hard to believe. And I didn’t do a big sale. I just said, ‘Hey’, you know, I didn’t insist too much. I just think it should be automatic,” he continued. “We’ve been there automatically, including Ukraine. Ukraine wasn’t our problem. It was a test, and we were there for them, and we would always have been there for them. They weren’t there for us.”

And here’s what Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Al Jazeera on Monday: “If NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked but then denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement. That’s a hard one to stay engaged in and say this is good for the United States.  So all of that is going to have to be reexamined.”

Anadolu/Getty Images

Oil Tanker in Qatari Waters Struck; Kuwait Airport Hit Again

A tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters on Wednesday, in another escalation spilling directly into critical energy corridors. According to Qatar’s defense ministry, three missiles were launched from Iran, with two intercepted but the third slamming into the Aqua 1 fuel oil tanker. While there were no casualties and damage remained above the waterline, the hit came just 17 nautical miles off Ras Laffan, home to the world’s largest gas facility, as Reuters has detailed. Bloomberg has noted, “Since the start of the war in Iran, UKMTO has reported 16 attacks on vessels operating in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.”

Elsewhere, Kuwait reported a “large fire” at fuel tanks near its international airport following another Iranian strike. This marks the seventh time of the war that the international travel hub was hit, and the last time it took emergency crews well over two days to put out the fires.

The Pentagon continues moving thousands of Marines, Special Forces, and Airborne troops into the region. This is not enough for a full ground invasion force, but could be preparation for a campaign to cut Iran from its strategic islands, such as oil export hub Kharg Island…

As I said here during this term, whenever Trump builds up forces in a region, it leads to escalation despite whatever conflicting statements he makes. Right now, we’re seeing a buildup for ground ops targeting Iranian islands, and I still believe we’re moving in that direction. https://t.co/lzjb6aKBYk

— Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave) April 1, 2026

Meanwhile, diplomacy continues to look like theater. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he has “no faith” in talks with Washington, confirming that while messages have been exchanged – but that “no negotiations are under way.” On the battlefield, Iran’s IRGC claims its latest barrage – spanning more than 100 heavy missiles, attack drones, and roughly 200 smaller rockets – hit targets across Israel and US military positions in the Gulf. Installations in Bahrain and Kuwait have also been hit, the group said, claiming that US helicopter was destroyed. The IRGC has newly vowed to keep attacking with “full intensity and power” – suggesting this is far from over.

LVMH, the owner of Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Fendi, Bvlgari, Moët & Chandon, and dozens of other luxury brands, just posted its worst quarter since the dot-com bust era, making it the worst-performing European luxury stock this year as demand for luxury handbags, shoes, watches, perfumes, and wines continues to soften amid an intensifying Middle East conflict.

LVMH shares in Paris tumbled 28% in the first quarter, exceeding quarterly declines seen during Covid and the 2008 financial crisis, but not surpassing the 41% third-quarter decline in 2001. Peers Richemont fell 20%, and Hermès slid 25% in the quarter.

“Elevated global uncertainty has generated significant investor anxiety, particularly among those who had been anticipating a long-awaited recovery in luxury demand this year. This has driven a sharp sector de-rating across luxury,” UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz wrote in a note for clients on Tuesday. 

Pusz said geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has largely driven de-rating across luxury stocks, leaving sector valuations roughly 15 percentage points below their long-term average relative to the broader market.

The selloff also reflects LVMH’s mounting problems: soft January guidance, greater exposure to more cash-strapped consumers, and continued weakness in its wines and spirits business, especially Hennessy. As a result, the stock now trades at a 20% discount to its peers.

Pusz noted that, despite the grim outlook for luxury, she has not yet seen clear evidence of a real demand slowdown, particularly in Asia, according to recent channel checks.

She added, “Against a backdrop of very negative market sentiment and depressed valuations, we think that even modest Q1 beats could be disproportionately rewarded. Fundamentally, we continue to expect sequential improvement for most companies, though selectivity remains critical. CFR and LVMH are our top picks.” 

The Goldman Sachs basket of European luxury stocks (GSXELUXG Index) appears to have found support at 2022 trading levels.

Meanwhile, LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault’s fortune has plummeted by $55.4 billion over the past quarter, the largest drop among the world’s 500 richest people.

“LVMH has become more than a luxury stock, it’s now a barometer of global confidence,” John Plassard, head of investment strategy at Cité Gestion, said. “The issue is not the Middle East exposure itself, but what it signals: uncertainty, pressure on the wealth effect, and fear of a broader slowdown.”

Professional subscribers can read the full UBS “European Luxury” note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Cloaking a fake “market” with artifice to maintain its asymmetrical distribution of wealth and income also cloaks its detachment from the real world.

I often refer to the dynamics of self-correction and self-liquidation. Systems that use feedback to rebalance extremes are self-correcting: rather than accelerate as they approach a cliff, they slow down and reorganize to avoid runaway self-reinforcing feedback (i.e. positive feedback), a.k.a. run to failure.

Some things are self-liquidating by design. A mortgage, for example, is intended to be self-liquidating: the monthly payments reduce and eventually extinguish the debt.

Other systems become self-liquidating when artifice becomes the “solution” for those seeking to lock the system down to maintain their share of the spoils. This is the inevitable consequence when a culture veers into the black-hole spiral of moral decay, where integrity is dissolved by maximizing self-interest by any means available.

Responding to real-world feedback threatens to reduce insiders’ share of the spoils, and to make sure this doesn’t happen, insiders steer the system away from the real world, creating an artificial, synthetic representation of the system that relies not on real-world feedback but on signals and symbolism that can be engineered to serve the interests of those holding the levers of power and influence.

To those benefiting from a system, corrective feedback is anathema because it reduces their share of the spoils. The “solution” is various forms of artifice that maintain the illusion that the system is stable and responsive to the interests of all, when in fact it’s been locked in a configuration that benefits the few at the expense of the many.

Self-serving artifice comes in many forms: the gaming of statistics to put lipstick on the real-world pig, the TACO Trade–announce some fabrication as a pending agreement with magical powers, virtue-signaling legislation that changes nothing in how the spoils are being distributed, grandiose claims of technological innovations–innovations that just happen to be owned by a handful of corporations–that will benefit everyone, and so on.

This substitution of artifice for authenticity relies heavily on signals and symbolism. Rather than attempt to manipulate all the complexities of the real-world economy, the stock market is now the signal for the entire economy: if stocks are going up, the economy is good.

This elevation of the stock market as the one true indicator rests on an entire universe of symbolic meanings and mythologies. The stock market is the invisible hand, the magic mechanism of price discovery, the engine of growth that rewards innovation and ingenuity while enriching us all with fabulous new technologies, the perpetual-motion device that makes America the greatest generator of prosperity in history, and so on.

Like all good cons, there is some truth buried beneath the hype. An unmanipulated market does indeed have the potential to reward innovation and ingenuity and generate widespread prosperity.

But the whole point of these mythologies is to cloak a manipulated market in the finery of an authentic market. This bewitchment is akin to the Emperor’s New Clothes: a fabrication, a tale, that takes on a life of its own as a mass delusion.

Cloaking a fake “market” with artifice to maintain its asymmetrical distribution of wealth and income also cloaks its detachment from the real world. This is how systems veer into Model Collapse and self-liquidation: the artificial representations, the reliance on easily faked signals and euphoria-inducing mythologies collapse once they collide with reality.

Which brings us to the present, where the stock market has become the economy, the driver of wealth and prosperity as the top 10% who own the majority of stocks can spend freely enough to employ the bottom 90% and pay the taxes needed to fund an out-of-control state sector that lavishes subsidies on every class to stave off a reckoning.

Here is reality: all credit-asset bubbles are inherently unstable and so they pop. While the timing isn’t predictable, the collapse of what is intrinsically self-liquidating is entirely predictable.

Here is the Emperor’s New Clothing version of mass delusion: the Everything Bubble is permanent and will never pop, and if it does, some agency with god-like powers will rush to the rescue.

But self-liquidating systems are not permanent. Their internal dynamics guarantee the end-game is extinguishment. Here is a projection of the Everything Bubble based on bubble symmetry and scale invariance: what goes up will come down on a similar trajectory.

That the Emperor is buck-naked should not surprise us, but awakening from mass delusion is by its very nature a stunning surprise.

These dynamics are drawn from my Revolution Trilogy.

*  *  *

My book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free). Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free

Public interest in science fiction is rapidly rising in China, alongside the country’s push toward technological advancement.

A new report says revenues hit a record in 2025 while related online searches surged by over 200%, according to the South China Morning Post.

According to data released at the China Science Fiction Convention and reported by Xinhua, total industry revenue reached 126.1 billion yuan (US$18.2 billion), marking a 15.7% year-on-year increase.

The report also noted expanding global influence for Chinese sci-fi intellectual property.

Video games continue to dominate the sector, contributing more than 60% of total earnings.

Sci-fi titles alone brought in 77.91 billion yuan and performed well internationally.

As Wu Yan put it, “Overall, sci-fi games still account for the lion’s share of the market.”

He added that younger audiences favor immersive, interactive formats, where games still outpace other media in both popularity and scale.

The SCMP writes that other segments are also growing. Sci-fi derivatives jumped 179.4% to 7.07 billion yuan, driven largely by original IP and new formats like AI-powered designer toys. Film and TV revenues rose 21.6% to 8.16 billion yuan, while literature generated 5.19 billion yuan.

The industry’s rise builds on earlier breakthroughs in the 2010s, when Liu Cixin’s The Three-Body Problem gained global recognition, followed by blockbuster adaptations like The Wandering Earth and its sequel.

Emerging trends include increased use of artificial intelligence in short- and mid-length video production, as well as growth in offline experiences. Wu noted, “Offline experience projects, such as sci-fi theme parks, have also been very attractive in recent years, similarly because of the first-hand experience [they provide].”

This momentum is reflected in sci-fi tourism, which grew 13.8% to 27.77 billion yuan, with theme parks remaining central. Meanwhile, a newly tracked segment—sci-fi technical equipment—generated 24.74 billion yuan in revenue.

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Republican Senators Bill Cassidy and Cynthia Lummis introduced legislation Monday aimed at reshaping the U.S. digital asset mining sector, tightening supply chains, and embedding bitcoin into federal reserve strategy.

The proposal, titled the “Mined in America Act,” would establish a federal certification program for domestic crypto mining operations while phasing out reliance on foreign-manufactured hardware.

It also seeks to codify Donald Trump’s executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, placing the policy on statutory footing, according to a release on the matter.

“Digital asset mining is a big part of our economy. We should be doing it here in America,” Cassidy said in a statement, framing the bill as a supply chain and manufacturing initiative.

Lummis tied the legislation to a broader push to position the United States as a global hub for digital assets.

“The Mined in America Act brings this industry home through forward-thinking initiatives to secure our financial future,” she said.

The bill directs the Department of Commerce to create a voluntary “Mined in America” certification for mining facilities and pools that meet security and sourcing standards. Certified operators would be required to transition away from hardware linked to foreign adversaries over a phased timeline, with the goal of full compliance by the end of the decade.

Lawmakers and industry advocates have pointed to a stark imbalance in the current mining ecosystem.

While the United States controls an estimated 38% of global bitcoin hash rate, roughly 97% of specialized mining hardware is produced by Chinese firms, including Bitmain and MicroBT.

JUST IN: US Senators introduce the “Mined in America” bill to promote Bitcoin mining and codify President Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/0M478axSE3

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) March 30, 2026

Domestic mining security push

Supporters argue that dependence poses both economic and national security risks. The bill references prior incidents, including U.S. inspections of imported mining rigs and the discovery of vulnerabilities in firmware that raised concerns about remote access capabilities.

To address the imbalance, the legislation directs the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the Manufacturing Extension Partnership to support the development of domestic mining hardware.

It stops short of authorizing new spending, instead integrating certified projects into existing federal energy and manufacturing programs.

The measure also positions bitcoin mining as a tool for grid management and energy development. 

By tapping into existing Department of Energy and U.S. Department of Agriculture programs, certified operators could access financing for projects that absorb excess renewable energy, stabilize grid demand, or capture methane emissions from landfills and oil fields.

Industry group Satoshi Action Fund endorsed the legislation, calling it a comprehensive framework that links energy policy, manufacturing, and digital asset strategy.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve gets a formal nod

Beyond industrial policy, the bill’s most significant provision may be its formalization of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the Treasury Department. While the federal government already holds a large amount of bitcoin from law enforcement seizures, the reserve would establish a framework for long-term retention and accumulation.

The legislation outlines a “budget-neutral” pathway for expanding holdings. Revenue generated from staking rewards and airdrops tied to other seized digital assets would be funneled into bitcoin purchases. In addition, certified domestic miners could sell newly mined bitcoin directly to the government in exchange for a capital gains tax exemption, creating an incentive to supply the reserve at discounted prices.

If enacted, the Mined in America Act would mark one of the most expansive federal efforts to integrate bitcoin mining into U.S. industrial and energy policy. 

It arrives as policymakers weigh how to balance innovation, security, and competition in a sector that has become increasingly global.

The share of people who consider themselves on the far left or far right of the political spectrum is particularly high in the United States, according to a survey by Statista Consumer Insights.

As Statista’s Tristan Gaudiat details below, among U.S. respondents surveyed between January and December 2025, 12 percent placed themselves on the far left (0 on a 10-point scale) and 20 percent on the far right (10 out of 10).

You will find more infographics at Statista

By comparison, only 7 percent of Germans place themselves at either extreme of the scale.

Identifying as centrist is also more common in Germany, with 24 percent doing so compared with 17 percent in the United States.

In France, centrism is less prevalent, with just 12 percent identifying as such, while 10 percent place themselves on the far left and a notable 19 percent on the far right.

It is also worth noting that 25 percent of surveyed French adults preferred not to answer, compared with 14 to 18 percent in the other countries studied.

While similar shares of French and U.S. respondents identify with the left and right overall, positions at the far ends of the spectrum are slightly more pronounced in the United States.

Attitudes in the United Kingdom broadly mirror those in Germany, though with a more pronounced shift toward the far-right end of the spectrum.

Via The Cradle

Poland has rejected an “unofficial” US request to deploy one of its Patriot air defense systems to West Asia, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz announced on Tuesday, following reports by Polish daily Rzeczpospolita that Washington had informally approached Warsaw amid rising regional tensions.

“Our Patriot batteries and their armaments are used to protect Polish airspace and NATO’s eastern flank. Nothing is changing in this regard and we are not planning to move them anywhere!” Kosiniak-Kamysz stated.

Still frame via the Ministry of Defense of Poland

He added, “Our allies are well aware of and understand how important our tasks are here. Poland’s security is an absolute priority.”

Rzeczpospolita reported that the US approach was informal and did not involve a formal request, adding that Washington sought to temporarily borrow one of Poland’s two Patriot batteries as part of efforts to defend US-linked assets across West Asia from Iranian strikes.

Polish officials have repeatedly argued that such a move would significantly weaken national defenses, effectively slashing their air defense capabilities in half. 

“Polish patriots defend the Polish sky,” officials have previously said, underscoring longstanding resistance to redeployment.

A senior NATO defense official, speaking anonymously, said Poland was not singled out. “This was a question that was sent to all allies,” they said, adding there was “no special pressure on Poland.”

The US is reportedly seeking additional air defense systems both for Ukraine and West Asia as Iran’s missile attacks on US-like positions leave their defenses stretched thin. 

Patriot systems are already deployed across Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and other areas, while the US and its allies have expended large numbers of interceptors during the conflict. One report noted that over 1,200 Patriot missiles were used in just over two weeks of fighting.

Even Poland’s opposition has pushed back, with former defense minister Mariusz Błaszczak stating that Warsaw “should not grant approval for such matters,” reflecting a rare political consensus.

The strain on air defense systems in West Asia has been felt since the opening days of the US-Israeli war on Iran. In early March, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said Seoul opposed US plans to redeploy Patriot and THAAD systems from the Korean Peninsula.

He added that while Washington could act based on its own “military needs,” Seoul had made clear its position despite having limited ability to block the move. Analysts cited in The Guardian had described the war on Iran as a “salvo competition” that was draining interceptor stockpiles and driving US redeployments.