Category: News
Searchers find wreck of luxury steamer lost in Lake Michigan more than 150 years ago
MADISON, Wis. — Searchers have discovered the wreck of a luxury steamer that sank in a Lake Michigan gale in the late 19th century, completing a quest that began almost 60 years ago.
Shipwreck World, a group that works to locate shipwrecks around the globe, announced Friday that a team led by Illinois shipwreck hunter Paul Ehorn found the Lac La Belle about 20 miles (32 kilometers) offshore between Racine and Kenosha, Wisconsin, in October 2022.
Ehorn told The Associated Press in a phone interview on Sunday that the announcement was delayed because his team wanted to include a three-dimensional video model of the ship with it, but poor weather and other commitments kept his dive team from going back down to the wreck until last summer.
Ehorn, 80, has been searching for shipwrecks since he was 15 years old. He said that he’s been trying to pinpoint the Lac La Belle’s location since 1965. He used a clue from fellow wreck hunter and author Ross Richardson in 2022 to narrow down his search grid and found the ship using side-scan sonar after just two hours on the lake, he said.
“It’s kind of a game, like solve the puzzle. Sometimes you don’t have many pieces to put the puzzle together but this one worked out and we found it right away,” he said. The finding left him “super elated.”
Ehorn declined to discuss the clue that led to the discovery. Richardson said in a short telephone interview Sunday that he learned that a commercial fisherman at a “certain location” had snagged what Richardson called an item specific to steam ships from the 1800s. He declined to elaborate further how competitive shipwreck hunting has become and said the information could alert searchers to another way to conduct research.
According to an account on Shipwreck World, the Lac La Belle was built in 1864, in Cleveland, Ohio. The 217-foot (66-meter) steamer ran between Cleveland and Lake Superior but sank in the St. Clair River in 1866 after a collision. The ship was raised in 1869, and reconditioned.
The ship left Milwaukee for Grand Haven, Michigan, in a gale on the night of Oct, 13, 1872, with 53 passengers and crew and a cargo of barley, pork, flour and whiskey. About two hours into the trip, the ship began to take on water uncontrollably. The captain turned the Lac La Belle back toward Milwaukee but huge waves came crashing over her, extinguishing her boilers. The storm drove the ship south. Around 5 a.m., the captain ordered lifeboats lowered and the ship went down stern-first.
One of the lifeboats capsized on the way to shore, killing eight people. The other lifeboats made landfall along the Wisconsin coast between Racine and Kenosha.
The wreck’s exterior is covered with quagga mussels and the upper cabins are gone, Ehorn said, but the hull looks intact and the oak interiors are still in good shape.
The Great Lakes are home to anywhere from 6,000 to 10,000 shipwrecks, most of which remain undiscovered, according to the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Wisconsin Water Library. Shipwreck hunters have been searching the lakes with more urgency in recent years out of concerns that invasive quagga mussels are slowly destroying wrecks.
The Lac La Belle is the 15th shipwreck Ehorn has located. “It was one more to put a check mark by,” he said. “Now it’s on to the next one. It’s getting harder and harder. The easier ones have been found.”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/02/15/luxury-steamer-lost-wreck-lake-michigan/
Las esperanzas de Leipzig en la Champions se dañan con el empate con el Wolfsburg en Bundesliga
Por CIARÁN FAHEY
BERLÍN (AP) — Leipzig recibió un golpe en su intento de clasificarse a la Liga de Campeones con el empate el domingo 2-2 ante el modesto Wolfsburg en la Bundesliga.
Podría haber sido peor para el club respaldado por Red Bull, ya que Brajan Gruda rescató el empate a los 89 minutos y el arquero de Leipzig, Maarten Vandevoordt, atajó el remate de Christian Eriksen en la última jugada del partido.
“Es un resultado amargo para nosotros. Queríamos los tres puntos”, afirmó Gruda.
Leipzig cayó al quinto puesto, a dos puntos de Stuttgart y apenas un punto por encima de Bayer Leverkusen, con 12 jornadas por disputarse. Solo los cuatro primeros se clasifican para la principal competición de clubes de Europa.
Wolfsburg está un punto por encima de la zona de descenso.
Mohamed Amoura abrió el marcaodr para Wolfsburg al inicio de la segunda parte, después de que Adam Daghim se abriera paso entre Max Finkgräfe y Nicolas Seiwald antes de ceder el balón hacia atrás. Amoura remató al poste.
El por lo demás excelente arquero de Wolfsburg, Kamil Grabara, le dio un regalo al Leipzig con un despeje que fue directo a Gruda, quien le dejó el balón a Yan Diomande para que igualara a los 70 minutos.
El suplente de Wolfsburg Mattias Svanberg devolvió la ventaja a su equipo ocho minutos después, pero Gruda respondió al 89 para rescatar un punto para Leipzig tras su eliminación de la Copa de Alemania ante Bayern Munich.
Leipzig recibe al segundo clasificado Borussia Dortmund el próximo fin de semana, cuando Stuttgart enfrente al colista Heidenheim y Leverkusen visite al Unión de Berlin.
Un penal tardío de Alexis Claude-Maurice le bastó al Augsburg para vencer 1-0 al Heidenheim en el primer partido del domingo.
Bayern lidera por seis puntos tras 22 jornadas, pero tendrá que disputar los próximos partidos sin su capitán lesionado Manuel Neuer, quien sufrió una lesión en la pantorrilla en la victoria del sábado ante Werder Bremen.
___
Deportes AP: https://apnews.com/hub/deportes
Moscow Repels Another Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Attack, Flights Briefly Grounded
Moscow Repels Another Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Attack, Flights Briefly Grounded
Russian officials are describing a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack targeting the capital of Moscow on Sunday. While not the first time, such aerial assaults so deep in Russian territory have remained somewhat rare.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Sunday afternoon that Russian air defenses intercepted 13 drones headed for the capital, as regional officials reported a sweeping wave of UAV attacks across western Russia – including hundreds of UAVs in total.
Standard Ukrainian drone, via the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
In mid-afternoon local time, Sobyanin announced that a drone approaching Moscow had been shot down. Within an hour later he described that air defenses had destroyed a total of 13 UAVs targeting the capital area. Emergency crews were dispatched to sites where debris fell, he detailed in the aftermath.
State-aligned outlet RIA Novosti reported that Domodedovo airport briefly halted arrivals and departures amid the threat before operations resumed.
The past year has seen increasing delays and stoppages at major aviation hubs across the Moscow region, leading to frequent delays and flight cancelations, also as frustration among Russian travelers grows.
In the border area Bryansk Oblast, Governor Aleksandr Bogomaz described the region had been under sustained drone assault since early morning. He said 120 UAVs had been downed over the territory.
As for details of the assault on southern Russia – which has become almost a nightly reality – Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that in the morning hours, air defenses intercepted 102 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over Bryansk, Kaluga, and Tula oblasts, as well as over the Moscow region – including three allegedly flying toward the capital.
Repeat drone attacks on Moscow could result in the Russian military upping its own attacks on the Ukrainian capital, which will leave Kyiv Oblast further without power, after already being subject to rolling blackouts.
Ukrainian drones are active in the Moscow region, Russian air defense is operating. As of this morning, already 100+ UAVs have been spotted and reported in Moscow region territory. pic.twitter.com/4wjbM2Tx87
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 15, 2026
Winter has hit hard in Ukraine, given that in many places there have been subzero temperatures, and amid persisting power and gas outages. Some locales have even experienced water outages, creating dire humanitarian circumstances.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/15/2026 – 15:45
Erin Jackson can’t repeat her gold medal in speedskating’s 500 as Femke Kok adds Olympic title to world record
MILAN — Everyone expected Femke Kok to win the 500-meter speedskating gold medal at the Milan Cortina Olympics. Even her Dutch teammate, Jutta Leerdam, the woman who beat Kok in the 1,000. Even the defending champion, American Erin Jackson.
And, well, Kok did, too. Embracing those expectations rather than fighting them, Kok extended her two-year-plus unbeaten streak at her sport’s shortest distance Sunday, adding a gold medal and the Olympic record to her world mark, beating Jackson head-to-head in the final heat and relegating Leerdam to the silver.
“I really wanted to prove to everyone that I could do it,” said Kok, who reversed the result from the 1,000 meters on Monday, when she got the silver. “I knew for myself the only thing that mattered was gold.”
The 25-year-old Kok powered through the final turn of the 500 and easily pulled away from Jackson, finishing in 36.49 seconds — a whopping 0.66 of a second ahead of 27-year-old teammate Leerdam.
“We’re a really small country,” Kok said about the Netherlands and its population of under 20 million, “but we can do speedskating.”
Miho Takagi of Japan was third in 37.27, picking up her second bronze of these Winter Games and ninth career Olympic medal. Her totals: two golds, four silvers and three bronzes.
Jackson was fifth in 37.32, four years after her 500 triumph for the United States made her the first Black woman to win an individual gold medal at a Winter Olympics in any sport.
“Femke has been the person to chase for the past few years. She’s just been amazing,” Jackson said. “If I have the perfect race, I could probably give her a run for her money.”
But Jackson, 33, didn’t have a perfect race: Sure, her start was terrific, but she stumbled a bit at one point, losing crucial time.
Hinsdale South alum Sarah Warren finished 28th with a time of 39.19.
After torn ACLs and 10 surgeries, Chicago’s Sarah Warren makes the US Olympic speedskating team
“I was coming closer and closer and closer,” Kok said, “and then I knew, ‘OK, I’m going fast.’”
As she usually does in the 500, an event she last lost in February 2024. When Kok crossed the line Sunday, she threw her arms overhead to the delight of the many, many Dutch spectators, then skated a little more before covering her face with both hands.
That was quite a contrast to Leerdam’s reaction after she temporarily took the lead in the 12th of 15 heats.
She got off to something of a sluggish start and was behind Takagi’s pace after 100 meters. While Leerdam did manage to better that time, she let out a big exhale afterward and didn’t look particularly pleased.
“She deserves it, for sure. She’s super good in the 500,” Leerdam said about Kok. “Silver in the 500 is such a win for me. I already felt complete after the win in the 1,000 — and now I have this one.”
Kok prevented Leerdam from becoming just the third female speedskater to win the 500 and 1,000 at the same Olympics.
“We pushed each other the last couple of years to a higher level,” Kok said. “She’s doing her own thing; I’m doing my own thing. We have a lot of respect for each other. She’s doing it her way; I’m doing it my way.”
Also Sunday, Italy beat the U.S. head-to-head by nearly a second in the men’s team pursuit quarterfinals but both advanced because they turned in the two fastest overall times. The Italian trio of Davide Ghiotto, Andrea Giovannini and Michele Malfatti finished in 3 minutes, 38.40 seconds, and the U.S. squad of Ethan Cepuran, Casey Dawson and Emery Lehman clocked 3:39.37.
In Tuesday’s semifinals, Italy will meet the Netherlands, and the Americans — who left the Beijing Games with the bronze and set the event’s world record in November — go up against China. The final will also be contested that day.
Two-time defending Olympic champion Norway finished with only the sixth-best time of the eight quarterfinalists Sunday and was eliminated.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/02/15/olympics-womens-500-speedskating-femke-kok-erin-jackson/
No clear path to ending the partial government shutdown as lawmakers dig in over DHS oversight
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Lawmakers and the White House offered no signs of compromise Sunday in their battle over oversight of federal immigration officers that has led to a pause in funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
A partial government shutdown began Saturday after congressional Democrats and President Donald Trump’s team failed to reach a deal on legislation to fund the department through September. Democrats are demanding changes to how immigration operations are conducted after the fatal shootings of U.S. citizens Alex Pretti and Renee Good by federal officers in Minneapolis last month.
Congress is on recess until Feb. 23, and both sides appear dug into their positions. The impasse affects agencies such as the Transportation Security Administration, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. Coast Guard, the Secret Service, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
The work at ICE and CBP goes on unabated because Trump’s tax and spending cut law from 2025 provided billions more to those agencies that can be tapped for deportation operations. About 90% of DHS employees were to continue working during the shutdown, but do so without pay — and missed paychecks could mean financial hardships. Last year there was a record 43-day government shutdown.
White House border czar Tom Homan said the administration was unwilling to agree to Democrats’ demands that federal officers clearly identify themselves, remove masks during operations and display unique ID numbers.
“I don’t like the masks, either,” Homan said, But, he said, “These men and women have to protect themselves.”
Democrats also want to require immigration agents to wear body cameras and mandate judicial warrants for arrests on private property.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Democrats are only asking for federal agents to abide by rules followed by law enforcement agencies around the country.
“And the question that Americans are asking is, ‘Why aren’t Republicans going along with these commonsense proposals?’” Schumer said. “They’re not crazy. They’re not way out. They’re what every police department in America does.”
Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., said he could back Democrats calls to equip immigration officers with body cameras and would support efforts to bolster training. But he balked at their demands that federal officers remove masks and clearly identify themselves, noting some officers taking part in immigration enforcement operations have faced doxing and other harassment.
“What are you going to do, expose their faces so you can intimidate their families?” Mullins said. “What we want is ICE to be able to do their job. And we would love for local law enforcement and for states to cooperate with us.”
Republican Sen. Katie Britt of Alabama, a Trump ally who had pushed for a two-week extension of DHS funding while negotiations continued, said it was “shortsighted of Democrats to walk away” from talks.
Trump made enforcement of the nation’s immigration laws a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign for the White House and he promised to be aggressive in detaining and deporting people living in the United States without legal permission.
DHS reports it has deported more than 675,000 migrants since Trump’s return to office last year and claims some 2.2 million others have “self-deported” as the Republican president has made his immigration crackdown a priority.
“President Trump is not going to back away from the mission, the mission that American people said they wanted him to complete, and that is securing our border and making sure that we actually do interior enforcement,” Britt said.
Homan was on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” Schumer and Mullin appeared on CNN’s “State of the Union” and Britt was interviewed on “Fox News Sunday.”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/02/15/partial-government-shutdown-dhs-oversight/
Donald Trump’s border czar says ‘small’ security force will remain in Minnesota after enforcement drawdown
WASHINGTON — White House border czar Tom Homan said Sunday that more than 1,000 immigration agents have left Minnesota’s Twin Cities area and hundreds more will depart in the days ahead as part of the Trump administration’s drawdown of its immigration enforcement surge.
A “small” security force will stay for a short period to protect remaining immigration agents and will respond “when our agents are out and they get surrounded by agitators and things got out of control,” Homan told CBS’ “Face the Nation.” He did not define “small.”
He also said agents will keep investigating fraud allegations as well as the anti-immigration enforcement protest that disrupted a service at a church service.
“We already removed well over 1,000 people, and as of Monday, Tuesday, we’ll remove several hundred more,” Homan said. “We’ll get back to the original footprint.”
Thousands of officers were sent to the Minneapolis and St. Paul area for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s “Operation Metro Surge.” The Department of Homeland Security said it was its largest immigration enforcement operation ever and proved successful. But the crackdown came under increasing criticism as the situation grew more volatile and two U.S. citizens were killed.
Protests became common. A network of residents worked to help immigrants, warn of approaching agents or film immigration officers’ actions. The shooting deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal officers drew condemnation and raised questions over officers’ conduct, prompting changes to the operation.
Homan announced last week that 700 federal officers would leave Minnesota immediately, but that still left more than 2,000 in the state. He said Thursday that a “significant drawdown” was already underway and would continue through this week.
Homan said enforcement would not stop in the Twin Cities and that mass deportations will continue across the country. Officers leaving Minnesota will report back to their stations or be assigned elsewhere.
When asked if future deployments could match the scale of the Twin Cities operation, Homan said “it depends on the situation.”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/02/15/trumps-border-czar-minnesota-enforcement-drawdown/
Qué hacer y qué evitar en el Carnaval de Brasil: recomendaciones para novatos y expertos
Por MAURICIO SAVARESE
RÍO DE JANEIRO (AP) — El Carnaval de Río de Janeiro es, para los no iniciados, un espectáculo enérgico de alegría, belleza y de soltarse. Pero para los fiesteros con años de experiencia también es una prueba de resistencia, de cultura callejera y de saber dosificar el ritmo que les permite seguir en pie después de cuatro días de festejos.
También se necesita un equilibrio entre lo que se debe y lo que no se debe hacer, aseguran expertos asistentes brasileños al Carnaval. Beber agua bajo el abrasador calor del verano en Río es imprescindible. Pero beber demasiada obliga a los fiesteros a encontrar un baño, y eso puede ser una experiencia extenuante.
Tomar un buen desayuno es clave para tener energía, pero un poco de más podría significar una caminata muy lenta por las calles empedradas cuando otros fiesteros aceleran el paso.
El domingo marca el segundo día oficial de la fiesta, que termina el Miércoles de Ceniza.
Helena Lemos, de 67 años, profesora de Geografía e Historia también es conocida por su nombre Hare Krishna, Kunti Devi Dasi, ha sido fiestera del Carnaval de Río desde la adolescencia. Este año toca distintos instrumentos de percusión en cinco fiestas callejeras, y su kit de supervivencia siempre la acompaña.
Lemos, que llevaba una camisa blanca ligera y gafas de sol, le dijo a The Associated Press antes de su primera fiesta callejera el viernes en la bohemia zona de Santa Teresa, en el centro de Rio: “Soy vegetariana, así que mi kit de comida es muy ligero: sólo fruta deshidratada, almendras, pasas. Esto te dará energía, no te hará subir de peso y te mantendrá fresco”.
“Antes, desayuné té de limón para tener una digestión más fácil, comí unas tortitas de tapioca y tomé un poco de café para aguantar”, comentó. “Me tomé un batido de frutas para tener un poco más de energía y luego algo de creatina. Cuando regrese, tomaré bebidas isotónicas porque no podemos tomarlas antes de las fiestas callejeras”.
La farmacéutica Ana Rodrigues Andrade, de 44 años, toca en nueve fiestas callejeras durante esta edición del Carnaval. Años atrás hizo 15 y aun así se presentó en el reluciente sambódromo de la ciudad para desfilar con tres escuelas de samba. Sus principales consejos se refieren a descansar entre fiestas y llevar artículos de higiene.
Andrade señaló, al tiempo que cargaba un gran set de tambores a la altura del vientre: “Con este sol, obviamente necesitas protector solar; sales de casa ya con él puesto. Hay que prepararse en casa y también llevar un poco. Las mujeres sí necesitan llevar papel higiénico y desinfectante de manos porque la situación de los baños durante una fiesta callejera no es buena en absoluto. Llévenlo en un bolsito. También vale la pena llevar mucha cinta adhesiva si estás tocando un instrumento, para no lastimarte las manos”.
El profesor de educación física Diego Tiriba, de 49 años, ha sido fiestero del Carnaval de Río desde la infancia. Su estrategia consiste en ser más austero cuando está en la calle y hacer la mayor parte de la preparación en casa. También le preocupa la seguridad en una ciudad donde la actividad delictiva es considerable.
Tiriba, que estaba sin camisa, explicó, cuando sacaba la riñonera de dinero de debajo de sus pantalones cortos: “Llevo una riñonera con algo de efectivo, una tarjeta de crédito, una tarjeta de autobús, mi tarjeta del seguro médico y las llaves de mi casa, mi celular y nada más”. Muchas mujeres esconden sus celulares y su dinero debajo de la camiseta.
La mayoría de los expertos fiesteros en Río no recomienda comprar comida durante las fiestas callejeras. Cualquier indigestión podría convertirse en un gran problema en un momento en que millones están en la calle y los baños públicos pueden quedar lejos. También advierten que la cerveza y las fiestas callejeras de ritmo acelerado no se llevan bien en días muy calurosos, porque esa combinación podría terminar en mareos.
Pero incluso los fiesteros de toda la vida cometen errores.
“Una vez me puse protector solar sólo en la cara; el resto del cuerpo se me puso todo rojo”, contó la farmacéutica Andrade. “Hoy volveré a tener problemas: olvidé mis rodilleras para protegerme del tambor”.
___
Siga la cobertura de AP sobre América Latina y el Caribe en https://apnews.com/hub/latin-america
___
Esta historia fue traducida del inglés por un editor de AP con la ayuda de una herramienta de inteligencia artificial generativa.
The AI Transition: Even Dinosaurs Weren’t Stupid Enough To Create Their Own Extinction Event
The AI Transition: Even Dinosaurs Weren’t Stupid Enough To Create Their Own Extinction Event
By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
A Bridge Too Far? The AI TRANSITioN?
Last weekend we discussed Molotov Cocktails, Volatility, Stability, & Faux Liquidity. In a nutshell, it was about:
The transition from one steady state to another steady state can be volatile.
A rules-based world, dependent on trade, to a ProSec-based world where each country operates more independently.
The transition from a pre-AI world to an AI world.
Faux liquidity – or our assessment that market structure is set up to produce bigger moves than the headlines or news warrant.
We got to discuss many of these things on Bloomberg TV on Friday, where Academy was part of the first half hour. While the focus was on AI, I kept arguing that geopolitics and this transition from one stable system to another stable system was also likely playing a major role in this week’s price action. Of all the things I regret saying, or not saying, I flubbed the final question on Walmart’s multiple. It isn’t something I focus on, and my answer was weak. I wish I’d highlighted that Walmart is the sort of company that should do well – big enough to navigate the changing global trade system and well positioned enough to extract the maximum benefit from AI-related efficiencies.
In any case, we certainly have a lot to follow up on based on this past week’s volatility and rapidly evolving narrative.
A Bridge Too Far?
One heck of a movie, and one of the few that comes to mind where the “good guys” lose. They put up an epic struggle, but don’t achieve their goal.
As you know I am Canadian, so you can choose to take this with a grain of salt, but I believe that this week’s “Truth Social” post about the new bridge, almost completed, fits the “bridge too far” narrative.
There was a lot of concern about imposing tariffs on countries that had been deemed to be blocking the U.S. “taking” Greenland. Not just from foreign countries, but there also seemed to be some degree of backlash and concern domestically. Not “just” from economists (which were front and center during Liberation Day). Nothing broke, and nothing really changed, but it seemed to set the stage for what happened this week.
On Sunday night (or early Monday morning) the President posted some complaints about the new bridge being built. The Gordie Howe Bridge. He is legendary both in Canada and Detroit. As we’ve become used to there was a mix of fact and fiction, and some weirdness (like China going to take away the Stanley Cup – which no Canadian team has won since 1993).
He went down the path of ownership. But it quickly came out that Michigan will have ownership, once the bridge costs are paid for (which were heavily skewed towards being paid by Canada). The argument of “ownership” also looked “flimsy” as people discovered that the Ambassador Bridge (the current connecting bridge) is privately owned by an American company (or family). I’ve used that bridge a lot, and it leaves a lot to be desired. One thing that I think of a lot is how great the new Tappan Zee Bridge is (technically the Mario Cuomo Bridge). It is a beautiful bridge and it has changed traffic patterns for the better. I don’t even know how old the bridge is now, but I still feel a sense of awe (and even pride) when driving across that bridge. I’m not sure the Gordie Howe Bridge is anywhere near as impressive as the new Tappan Zee Bridge, but it certainly has to be an improvement (and additive).
I’ve left out a myriad of other allegations around this to focus on the pertinent point. Michigan, with the approval (and support) of U.S. Presidents (including President Trump) has engaged in a project that they viewed would help their economy. Out of the blue, that is being challenged?
Now maybe it is pure coincidence, but this week, the House of Representatives voted to stop the tariffs between the U.S. and Canada. There is no way this won’t get stopped with a veto (assuming it gets passed the Senate), but this is the first time during this administration that we saw Republicans go against the President even as they were warned about reprisals such as “being primaried.”
We’ve had some questions about the American Brand. Tourism to the U.S. from abroad is down (not horrific, but down). We have yet to notice a discernible change in consumer tastes abroad, but many of these “bridges too far” have occurred only recently.
While I’m not sure much will come of it, France announced on January 26th that civil servants would have to use Visio by 2027, instead of Zoom.
While we have “goods” trade deficits with many (even most countries), we have “services” surpluses.
We’ve always argued that the total trade balance is most important (goods and services).
While I don’t see it tracked anywhere, “profitability” of trade is even more relevant and what little evidence there is points to the fact that from most countries, the U.S. imports low margin products and exports higher margin products (or services as the case may be).
That is NOT inconsistent with ProSec which prioritizes domestic (or trade with close allies) for “things” that are vital for national security in a wholistic way (rather than purely military).
We’ve also argued that tariffs put pressure on the system slowly. It is the cumulative effect of tariffs that matter (especially when the rates themselves seemed subject to change at any moment). As we move into the 10th month of higher tariff revenue (around $30 billion per month) the cumulative effect seems to be appearing (lots of reports this week citing amounts eaten by exporters, versus paid by importers, or passed on to customers).
Now maybe it is pure coincidence, but this week, stories circulated about reducing tariffs on steel and aluminum. There were some denials but this makes sense – as it will take the U.S. time to crank up production and it is “confusing” how to apply this, as both steel and aluminum are a part of so many products.
Markets like some degree of certainty. Even if the certainty is somewhat variable. The market has grown to accept the volatility and the “maximalist negotiating leverage” game.
But have we crossed a bridge, where that game no longer functions like it has for the previous 6 months or so?
U.S. stocks underperformed most other indices last week, especially when converted to dollars.
I think we have seen enough Molotov Cocktails lobbed domestically and internationally (from all sorts of directions and parties) that this volatility extends and resolves itself in lower valuations, especially domestically, as the U.S. has outperformed by so much for so long.
The AI TRANSITioN?
I was trying to find a font that had more of a computer/sci-fi “vibe”. I wanted to use one of The Far Side’s dinosaur cartoons where a couple of dinosaurs are laughing at a mammal while one looks mildly concerned about some snowflakes that are falling (but we probably needed some actual copyright permission to do that – though I urge you to search The Far Side for dinosaurs).
I guess I was thinking about that because Even the Dinosaurs Weren’t Stupid Enough to Create Their Own Extinction Event. They were not smart, and they did become extinct, but they didn’t do it to themselves.
So, we will use this little picture to symbolize what may have happened last week (and I’m pretty sure we don’t need any copyright permission from Grok).
We have been talking about the little I (or i-shaped) economy. Arguing that maybe it is a k-shaped economy rather than a K-shaped economy. We’ve also been talking about the “working poor” in recent pieces (The Fed, Electricity, & Affordability).
You could almost convince me that it is an h-shaped economy, but that might be too negative.
But for now, I think the K in the K-shaped economy just cracked. Let’s look at this “cracking” of the K in two ways.
The first from “margin compression” and even “margin differential” compression:
High margin, low physical asset businesses are likely to face margin pressures. I don’t think we are close to the day where AI can create products that remotely compete with the biggest and best software programs – but they could face margin pressures as they head off any potential competition at the pass. The selling may already be overdone, but we could see some margin compression continuing in sectors that don’t have as big of a “moat” as previously thought. Installed base is still a very powerful “moat” and the market may have forgotten that, but margin pressure is likely to be a story that becomes a recurring theme to pressure markets.
Low margin business, especially those with large “physical” undertakings (property, plant, and equipment, shipping, logistics, etc.) may benefit and see margin expansion. These are the sorts of business that can see margins expand as they get benefits from efficiencies delivered by AI (I should have done a better job on this on Friday’s TV appearance).
So, the high margin sectors that the market owns heavily could see margins shrink, while the low margin businesses that many investors are underweight in could see margins expand. Both the margin expansion and compression come from the same force – rapidly improving AI. This rotation could have some staying power. Call this the margin differential compression trade. It will adjust what are the appropriate multiples for different companies and different industries.
Weirdly, that might be the more benign way to think about this.
White collar job losses.
The FT published an article where Mustafa Suleyman, the CEO of Microsoft AI, predicted (according to a Grok summary) that most tasks in white-collar professions – such as those performed by lawyers, accountants, project managers, and others working at computers – will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months. There seem to be a lot of takes on his words that are even worse than what he said, though what he said doesn’t seem great. Presumably, at least some people on the upward sloping part of the K have white-collar jobs?
I did manage to write a T-Report this weekend, rather than giving up, but…
If you haven’t seen, or I’m the first person to suggest checking out Something Big Is Happening, I recommend it. It is another, I think I can say, “dire” warning about potential job losses.
We’ve been living in a “no hire, no fire” economy. Anyone who had been proclaiming massive job losses from AI was viewed as a tin foil hat wearing “doomer.”
Most people were explaining that AI would:
Enhance what people could do, so those who harnessed it would benefit greatly.
The counterpoint to this, recently, has become that since AI is getting so easy to use, don’t even bother, because by the next generation, we won’t need to have a clue on how to use AI, to use it.
Create some job losses but create many more jobs. Ironically AI prompter is one of them, but see the above comment.
Basically, the argument has been that AI, like many other technological advances, would be a big net benefit to humankind (and not a self-made extinction event).
That narrative, like the K, seems to have cracked in the past few weeks.
Will that change how people spend their money? This narrative has appeared rather “suddenly” and has an “alarmist” ring to it. Maybe, like the initial concerns about DeepSeek, it will fall by the wayside.
The risk is that, even before job losses occur, people will change their spending behavior out of fear of those job losses.
I’m not in this camp, but the concern that “Someone’s Efficiency is at the cost of Your Job” was almost palpable this week.
Probably overdone, but if the upward sloping leg of the K has been driving the economy and spending, we might want to be very careful (in our investing and spending).
Yet another reason to be cautious on risk as we make it through this “transition.”
The Fed
I remain convinced that:
We will have 75 bps of cuts by the end of the September meeting. That there is a far higher chance of one more Powell cut (March or April) than the market is pricing in. The market moved in our direction this week, but plenty of room still to price in what we are positioning for.
10-year yields will be sub 4%. 10s closed at 4.05% on Friday.
This has nothing to do with the rest of today’s report, but I didn’t want anyone to think we’ve stopped pounding the table on these trades. Though in some ways it has a lot to do with everything in today’s report if we’re right about the volatility and its disruptive nature.
Two Last Things
The Supreme Court is likely to rule, at least partially, against the U.S. government on the IEEPA tariffs.
Countries that have set up trade deals are unlikely to be impacted as the trade deals themselves should overrule the IEEPA tariffs (to the extent there were any). Though there isn’t a lot of evidence that agreements in principle have turned into formal documents.
The admin has many other ways to attack tariffs other than under IEEPA, especially for tariffs in the 15% and lower range.
It is likely the admin, on any losses, will make it very difficult to collect money paid on tariffs that were deemed illegal. Do you really want to sue the government or do you just view it as a sunk cost?
I don’t think the ruling will have much of an impact, though I’m rethinking that, as the reaction might be different if we really did go “a bridge too far” this week.
Expect nuclear arms proliferation.
Ukraine gave up what nukes it had and it was invaded by Russia (which does have nukes and has muted any military response to their actions).
Iran has been attacked before, and the U.S. is positioning forces capable of launching another major attack.
North Korea, with a backwards economy, and few friends, is largely left alone (while executing cybercrimes to fund themselves). Would the world tolerate such blatant cyber activity if they didn’t have nukes?
France has discussed the possibility of working with other nations about sharing (in some form) either technology or weapons.
Nuclear energy will be important to the world for ProSec, and I’d be shocked if nuclear weapons didn’t play an important role in smaller nations figuring out how to ensure their sovereignty. So probably bad for humankind and extinction events, but good for uranium and others in the nuclear fuel business.
Bottom Line
More of the same. We could get some bounces.
Some markets are at or near being oversold.
We could get pleasant surprises with Iran or Russia.
There are likely to be new “pronouncements” from the administration in their efforts to run hot heading into the midterms – and I continue to believe people are not pricing in the Fed as aggressively as they should. I also remain a huge fan of the ProSec™ trade. Not in the least because many of the industries that fit the trade criteria are in the camp of stocks that have been underinvested in and are positioned to do well.
I wasn’t even depressed when I started writing this report. Sorry if this report did nothing to brighten your day, but this is the dark spot my thoughts led me to.
Though I do remain skeptical of the ability for AI to change things so quickly that we are hurt before we can reap the benefits.
There, at least we ended on a positive note, and for those on holiday on Monday, do enjoy! It is difficult to believe it is only the middle of February.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/15/2026 – 15:10
FBI: DNA recovered from glove found near Nancy Guthrie’s home that appears to match glove worn by suspect
TUCSON, Ariz. — The FBI says a glove containing DNA was found about two miles from Nancy Guthrie’s home and appears to match those worn by a masked person outside her front door in Tucson the night she vanished.
The glove, found in a field near the side of the road, were sent off for DNA testing. The FBI said in a statement Sunday that it received preliminary results Saturday and is awaiting official confirmation.
Approximately 16 gloves were found in various spots near the house, most of which were searchers’ gloves that had been discarded, the FBI said.
The discovery was revealed days after investigators had released surveillance videos of the masked person outside Guthrie’s front door. A porch camera recorded video of a person with a backpack who was wearing a ski mask, long pants, jacket and gloves.
On Thursday, the FBI called the person a suspect. It described him as a man about 5 feet, 9 inches tall with a medium build. The agency said he was carrying a 25-liter “Ozark Trail Hiker Pack” backpack.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/02/15/fbi-dna-recovered-glove-nancy-guthrie/
El Rayo Vallecano en apuros sorprende al Atlético de Madrid 3-0 en boicot de fans
Por TALES AZZONI
MADRID (AP) — El tribulado Rayo Vallecano sorprendió al vencer el domingo 3-0 al Atlético de Madrid, un triunfo impactante presenciado por apenas unas 5.000 personas debido a una protesta de los aficionados del Rayo.
Fue la segunda derrota consecutiva del Atlético en la liga española, tres días después de que aplastó 4-0 al Barcelona 4-0 en el partido de ida de las semifinales de la Copa del Rey. El entrenador Diego Simeone dio descanso a algunos de sus titulares habituales tras el encuentro del jueves contra el Barcelona.
El resultado hizo caer al Atlético al cuarto puesto, por detrás de Villarreal, Barcelona y Real Madrid, que el sábado ganó 4-1 en el campo de la Real Sociedad. El Atlético está a 15 puntos del Madrid tras 24 jornadas. El Barcelona puede recuperar el liderato y colocarse un punto por delante del Madrid si gana su partido del lunes en Girona.
El Rayo, que no había vencido al Atlético en 19 partidos consecutivos desde 2013, salió de la zona de descenso con la victoria, que además puso fin a una racha de cuatro derrotas seguidas del equipo en todas las competiciones.
El partido se disputó en el estadio de Butarque, casa del club de segunda división Leganés en Madrid, porque el césped del estadio de Vallecas del Rayo seguía en mal estado después de que tuviera que ser reemplazado por completo. El partido como local del Rayo contra el Oviedo el fin de semana pasado tuvo que aplazarse con poca antelación debido al estado del terreno de juego.
Los aficionados del Rayo se han mostrado molestos con el presidente del club, Martín Presa, y llamaron a boicotear el partido contra el Atlético. Cientos de hinchas del Rayo protestaron fuera del estadio de Vallecas horas antes del encuentro del domingo en Butarque, coreando cánticos y mostrando pancartas en las que pedían la dimisión de Presa.
Los jugadores del Rayo, junto con el sindicato de futbolistas de España, se habían quejado de las condiciones que el club ofrecía a la plantilla.
Unos 5.300 aficionados asistieron al partido en Butarque, que presentó muchos asientos vacíos. El estadio Butarque, al sur de Madrid, tiene capacidad para unos 12.000 espectadores.
La victoria llevó al Rayo al 16to puesto. Su último triunfo en la liga había sido 2-1 contra el Mallorca en enero.
Ratiu asistió en el gol con el que Fran Pérez abrió el marcador a los 40 minutos. Óscar Valentín amplió la ventaja al 45 y Nobel Mendy sentenció el triunfo al 76.
El Atlético venía de perder 1-0 en casa ante el Real Betis en la liga española.
Remontada del Athletic
Los goles en la segunda parte de Mikel Jauregizar y Oihan Sancet le dieron al Athletic Bilbao, que se ubica noveno, una victoria 2-1 como visitante ante el colista Oviedo, que se fue al descanso en ventaja tras un gol al 30 de Ilyas Chaira.
El Athletic ha ganado tres de sus últimos cuatro partidos. El miércoles perdió 1-0 en casa ante su rival vasco, la Real Sociedad, en el partido de ida de las semifinales de la Copa.
El Oviedo había derrotado 1-0 al Girona en casa en la ronda anterior para poner fin a una racha de 15 partidos sin ganar.
___
Deportes AP: https://apnews.com/hub/deportes
