With nuclear talks hanging in the balance, and the potential for yet another US war of choice in the Middle East, President Donald Trump escalated the rhetoric Tuesday night, warning that Iran is moving beyond just regional missile capabilities and setting its sights farther west by developing missiles capable of hitting the United States.

During his State of the Union address Tuesday night, Trump claimed, “They’ve already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they’re working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America.”

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It seemed a transparent attempt to make the American people believe they are under direct threat from Tehran, in order to justify potential near-future strikes, however flimsy the case might be. So far Washington’s main talking point has been that Iran simply can never have a nuclear weapon and so something has to be done – and this actually does resonate with some sectors of the American public.

But Tehran setting its sites on directly attacking the US homeland is a huge stretch, with no serious analyst so much as suggesting the Islamic Republic has the capability or is even close.

US intelligence assessments have been very conservative on this. For example, in 2025, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) stated that Iran could potentially field a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile by 2035 “should Tehran decide to pursue the capability.”

Given US intelligence also has not concluded that such a decision had been made, this means Iran is likely at least a decade away from even being close to possessing such an ultra long range missile.

The US mainland is some 6000 miles away from western Iran, and currently Iran’s longest range missile is said to reach just under 1900 miles – a huge gap.

Iran’s ballistic missile focus has always been developing with an eye on the country’s number one nemesis in the region: Israel. 

There’s a broad understanding even among the Western public that in reality Washington’s anti-Iran stance has much more to do with defending Israel than the US homeland, which is clearly not under immediate threat from Tehran. There’s not so much as been a terror attack carried out by a single Iranian Shia operative on American soil in all of history. 

Iran is willing to scale back uranium enrichment from 60% to roughly 3.6% and pause enrichment activities for seven years under a draft framework expected in Geneva, an Arab diplomat familiar with the proposal tells Kan News. Tehran opposes shipping hundreds of kilograms of…

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) February 25, 2026

So it seems the White House continues to be in search of a rationale and narrative to sell the public amid the major Pentagon build-up in the region. But polls by and large suggest most Americans still aren’t buying it.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she is considering legal action after tech billionaire Elon Musk alleged on social media that she was taking orders from drug cartels.

Speaking at a Feb. 24 news conference in Mexico City, Sheinbaum said government lawyers were reviewing the matter.

“We’re considering whether to take some legal action,” she said.

“The lawyers are looking into it, but what matters to me is what the people say, honestly.”

Musk’s allegation of Sheinbaum’s cartel subservience followed the capture and killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (JNGC) leader Nemesio Oseguera, known as “El Mencho,” by Mexican security forces.

In his post on X, Musk responded to a 2025 video of Sheinbaum discussing cartel violence and saying that returning to a war against the cartels is “not an option” because it would mean extrajudicial killings that are “outside the framework of the law.” She added that military force against the cartels would also be counterproductive because it would trigger retaliatory violence that would only “increase homicides in Mexico.”

Responding to those remarks, Musk alleged that she was “saying what her cartel bosses tell her to say.”

“Let’s just say that their punishment for disobedience is a little worse than a ‘performance improvement plan,’” Musk wrote.

He did not provide evidence to support his claims.

Sheinbaum could face difficulty suing Musk for defamation in the United States because of strong legal protections for free speech. To prevail, she would need to show that Musk knowingly made a false statement or acted with reckless disregard for the truth.

Tesla, Musk’s auto company, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Violence After El Mencho’s Killing

Musk’s comments came amid heightened tensions in Mexico following Oseguera’s death.

An uneasy calm appeared to be returning to parts of the country on Wednesday after the killing of the cartel leader triggered widespread reprisals. The violence paralyzed highways, grounded flights, and forced residents and tourists to shelter in place, particularly in Jalisco state.

Aerial view of burned vehicles over the La Desembocada bridge in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco State, Mexico, on Feb. 24, 2026. Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images

Sheinbaum said at the Feb. 24 briefing that authorities were working to restore order after Sunday’s military operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco, left Oseguera dead following a shootout.

“Today there was no school, but tomorrow activities are expected to return to normal,” she said.

“In the Guadalajara airport, practically all flights have already resumed, and in Puerto Vallarta, little by little, things are returning to normal.”

Sheinbaum added that there were still “some” burned vehicles on the side of the road on Tuesday that would be removed later in the day.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum pays tribute during the celebration of Flag Day in Mexico City on Feb. 24, 2026. Yuri Cortez/AFP via Getty Images

Mexico’s Security Cabinet said in a Feb. 24 post on X that affected states were experiencing “a gradual reopening of economic and educational activities, with progressive normalization of mobility and strategic operations,” according to a translation.

More than 50 people were reported killed in the operation and its aftermath, including members of Mexico’s National Guard. The White House said the United States provided intelligence support for the raid.

The CJNG, one of Mexico’s most powerful criminal organizations and a major trafficker of fentanyl and methamphetamine into the United States, responded to Oseguera’s death with coordinated attacks, including vehicle burnings and armed confrontations with security forces.

Sheinbaum also sought to reassure international visitors ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, saying there was no risk to fans traveling to Mexico and that “all the guarantees” for safety were in place.

Trump’s Escalating Pressure

Musk’s criticism mirrors that of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has sharply escalated rhetoric against Mexican cartels and criticized Sheinbaum’s approach.

“The cartels are running Mexico. It’s very sad to watch and see what’s happened to that country,” Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity in a Jan. 8 interview.

“They’re killing 250,000, 300,000 in our country every single year.

“We knocked out 97 percent of the drugs coming in by water, and we are going to start now hitting land with regard with the cartels.”

Trump also warned that Mexico needs to “get its act together.”

“You have to do something with Mexico,” Trump told reporters in January. “We’re going to have to do something. We’d love Mexico to do it; they’re capable of doing it, but unfortunately, the cartels are very strong in Mexico.”

He has described Sheinbaum as “afraid” of the cartels and has suggested the United States could conduct military strikes on Mexican soil. His administration has intensified anti-cartel measures, including designating certain Mexican syndicates as terrorist organizations.

“Much more remains to be done by Mexico’s government to target cartel leadership, along with their clandestine drug labs, precursor chemical supply chains, and illicit finances,” Trump said in a presidential determination published by the U.S. State Department in September 2025. “Over the next year, the United States will expect to see additional, aggressive efforts by Mexico to hold cartel leaders accountable and disrupt the illicit networks engaged in drug production and trafficking.”

Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected the prospect of unilateral U.S. intervention, saying it would violate Mexican sovereignty.

“We categorically reject intervention in the internal affairs of other countries,” Sheinbaum said during a news conference in early January. “The history of Latin America is clear and compelling: Intervention has never brought democracy, never generated well-being, nor lasting stability.”

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington on Feb. 10, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The White House confirmed that the United States provided intelligence support for the operation to capture El Mencho and applauded Mexico’s army for taking down a man who was one of the most wanted criminals in both countries.

“The United States provided intelligence support to the Mexican government in order to assist with an operation in Talpalpa, Jalisco, Mexico, in which Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Oseguera Cervantes, an infamous drug lord and leader within the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, was eliminated,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a Feb 22 post on X.

Sheinbaum told reporters on Feb. 24 that she expects security to continue to normalize in Mexico following coordinated roadblocks and arson attacks by cartel members after the operation against Oseguera.

The June 13-24, 2025, “12-Day War” was a direct escalation of long-standing tensions.

Israel launched Operation Rising Lion with massive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, later joined by U.S. strikes on June 22 targeting key enrichment and conversion sites. 

The campaign aimed to degrade Iran’s nuclear program, which the IAEA had declared non-compliant days earlier. While physical damage was extensive, Iran retained its scientific expertise, much of its enriched uranium stockpile (~400 kg of 60% Highly enriched uranium, HEU) and is now fortifying deeper underground facilities.

With U.S.-Iran talks ongoing and satellite imagery showing repair and hardening efforts, here is a site-by-site status update on the major facilities.

Tehran Nuclear Research Center (TNRC) and Research Reactor

The TNRC houses Iran’s primary research reactor: the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), a 5 MW light-water unit supplied decades ago by the U.S. and used for medical isotope production and research. It operates on high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) and remains under IAEA safeguards. During the war, one building linked to centrifuge or fuel activities sustained damage, but the TRR avoided any issues. No major radiological issues were reported.

Natanz Uranium Enrichment Complex

Iran’s flagship enrichment site in central Iran features the underground Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) and above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP). Israeli strikes destroyed most of the above-ground infrastructure, while subsequent U.S. bunker-busters further damaged underground halls. Centrifuge cascades were severely affected, rendering large-scale enrichment inoperable. As of early 2026, satellite imagery shows limited cleanup, roof repairs over damaged structures, and fortification of utilities. The site remains a shadow of its former capacity.

Fordow Uranium Enrichment Complex

Buried deep in a mountain, this hardened site was Iran’s key location for higher-level enrichment (up to 60%).

Israeli strikes caused initial damage, but U.S. B-2 bombers delivered 12-14 GBU-57 MOPs on June 22, penetrating and destroying ventilation shafts, tunnel portals, and “almost all sensitive equipment,” per IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi.

The facility is effectively inoperable for enrichment. Minimal post-war activity has been observed. Entrances remain damaged or reinforced.

Esfahan Nuclear Complex

This site south of Tehran serves as the hub for uranium conversion (yellowcake to UF6 gas), fuel fabrication (for the TRR), chemical labs, and a nuclear technology/research center. It includes small research reactors, such as a Chinese-supplied miniature neutron source reactor (MNSR ~30 kW) and subcritical assemblies for training and experiments. Israeli strikes damaged multiple buildings including the central lab, uranium conversion sections, TRR fuel manufacturing plant, and a uranium metal processing facility under construction. U.S. Tomahawk strikes targeted tunnel entrances possibly used for HEU storage. Post-war: roofs have been added over some damaged buildings for protection. Tunnel entrances have been sealed with earth and fortified. The small research reactors’ exact operational status is unclear amid restricted access.

Pickaxe Mountain (Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La) Underground Complex

Approximately 2 km south of Natanz, this buried site was notably not targeted during the 12-Day War. Construction began years earlier and accelerated afterward.

Satellite imagery from late 2025 into February 2026 shows ongoing fortification – strengthened tunnel entrances with concrete, soil/rock cover, security perimeters, and additional barriers. Iran has declared it for advanced centrifuge assembly, but analysts assess it could host covert enrichment, HEU storage, or a hardened fallback plant.

It remains uninspected by the IAEA and represents Iran’s clearest effort to reconstitute capabilities in a strike-resistant location.

Activity here stands out amid stagnation at traditional sites.

Arak (Khondab) Heavy Water Reactor and Related Facilities

The IR-40 heavy water reactor near Arak was intended for plutonium production but never fueled or operational under JCPOA redesign commitments. It was struck by Israel on June 19. The containment dome was breached, the core destroyed, and adjacent heavy water production infrastructure damaged. With no nuclear material inside, there was no radiological release. The reactor is now permanently crippled and will not be completed in its prior form, effectively closing Iran’s plutonium route for the foreseeable future.

Key Changes Since the 12-Day War

The strikes destroyed or degraded above-ground and semi-buried infrastructure at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, killed several nuclear scientists, and forced Iran to suspend IAEA cooperation. The enriched uranium stockpile largely survived but its precise location is unverified. The most common assumption is that it is being stored in the Pickaxe/Esfahan tunnels. Repair efforts include roofs over damaged Natanz/Isfahan buildings and Pickaxe fortification. The program is delayed but not eliminated. 

Bushehr’s operating 1,000 MW VVER power reactor was untouched to avoid a Chenobyl-like catastrophe.

Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks focus on enrichment limits, stockpile disposal, and sanctions relief, but gaps remain wide. There have been some indications recently that Iran is willing to limit its enrichment pursuit.