Category: News
Qué saber sobre el arresto del expresidente brasileño Jair Bolsonaro
Por GABRIELA SÁ PESSOA
SAO PAULO (AP) — La policía brasileña arrestó el sábado al expresidente Jair Bolsonaro bajo sospecha de que planeaba huir para evitar cumplir con una sentencia de 27 años en prisión por encabeza un intento de golpe de Estado.
Bolsonaro fue condenado en septiembre por intentar permanecer en el poder después de perder en las elecciones presidenciales de 2022. Es el primer exmandatario en la economía más grande de América Latina en ser declarado culpable de un intento por anular los comicios. Él ha negado haber cometido cualquier irregularidad.
El juez Alexandre de Moraes, quien supervisó el caso, ordenó el arresto de Bolsonaro después de afirmar que tobillera de rastreo fue manipulada a las 12:08 de la mañana del sábado. Sus abogados disputan esa afirmación.
Bolsonaro, de 70 años, se encontraba bajo arresto domiciliario y estaba obligado a portar el dispositivo después de ser considerado un riesgo de fuga.
Esto es lo que hay que saber sobre el caso:
Los tribunales evaluarán la orden
Un panel de Supremo Tribunal Federal que escucha el caso de Bolsonaro votará el lunes en una sesión extraordinaria sobre la orden de De Moraes. El mismo panel condenó y sentenció a Bolsonaro en una votación de 4-1 en septiembre. El panel puede confirmar o revocar la orden de arresto.
Los procedimientos son independientes al juicio por intento de golpe por el cual Bolsonaro fue declarado culpable y sentenciado a 27 años en prisión. Sus abogados aún pueden presentar más apelaciones en ese caso antes de que realmente comience a cumplir su sentencia. Se tiene previsto que esto ocurra en algún momento de la próxima semana, después de que se agoten todas las apelaciones de su condena.
Los abogados de Bolsonaro solicitaron al Supremo Tribunal que pudiera cumplur su sentencia bajo arresto domiciliario, argumentando su mal estado de salud, pero la ley brasileña requiere que todos los condenados comiencen su sentencia en prisión.
Bolsonaro solicitó el viernes al máximo tribunal que le permitiera cumplir su condena bajo arresto domiciliario. De Moraes rechazó la solicitud el sábado, diciendo que se volvió irrelevante después del arresto preventivo. El juez también revocó recientemente las solicitudes de visita a Bolsonaro.
Futuro político y sucesión
A Bolsonaro se le ha prohibido postularse para cualquier cargo público hasta 2030 como parte de otro proceso en su contra. Aun así, conserva un sólido capital político. Incluso tras las rejas, podría determinar quién lleva la bandera de su coalición.
Líderes políticos en todo Brasil sopesan a posibles candidatos de derecha para enfrentarse a Lula en las elecciones del próximo año.
Muchos consideran al gobernador de São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, como el sucesor natural, pero enfrenta resistencia del círculo íntimo de Bolsonaro. El hijo mayor del expresidente, el senador Flávio Bolsonaro, también es mencionado como opción presidencial.
Gilberto Kassab, una figura clave en el gobierno de De Freitas, es uno de los políticos más influyentes de Brasil. Controla el PSD, que gobierna al mayor número de municipios y tiene uno de los bloques más grandes en el Congreso.
“Tendremos elecciones, y serán disputadas por aquellos que sean elegibles. No creo que el presidente Bolsonaro recupere su elegibilidad para esta elección”, dijo Kassab a los periodistas el viernes en Sao Paulo.
Kassab señaló que su grupo está trabajando con tres posibles nombres para la contienda del próximo año. Si De Freitas no se postula, su grupo planea apoyar al gobernador de Paraná, Carlos Roberto Massa Junior, conocido como Ratinho Jr., o al gobernador de Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite.
Tanto De Freitas como Ratinho Jr. expresaron en redes sociales su solidaridad con Bolsonaro después de su arresto el sábado. De Freitas declaró un apoyo inquebrantable a Bolsonaro, calificando su condena de injusta y prometiendo luchar por su revocación. Ratinho Jr. dijo que fue un “día triste” y expresó preocupación por la salud del expresidente, pero no defendió su inocencia.
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Esta historia fue traducida del inglés por un editor de AP con la ayuda de una herramienta de inteligencia artificial generativa.
A son of Fenwick’s AD, Tommy Thies was a ball boy for a state champion. As a player, ‘this means everything.’
For as long as Tommy Thies can remember, his life has revolved around Fenwick athletics.
Much of that connection involves Thies’ father, Scott, who is a graduate of the school and is its longtime athletic director.
But Thies is making his mark there too.
“This means everything,” he said.
A Miami of Ohio recruit as a safety, Thies scored two touchdowns, including an 11-yard catch in overtime, as the 11th-seeded Friars edged top-seeded Nazareth 28-27 in a Class 6A state semifinal in La Grange Park on Saturday.
Fenwick (10-3) will play eighth-seeded East St. Louis (9-3) in the state championship game at Illinois State’s Hancock Stadium in Normal at 1 p.m. Nov. 29.
Fenwick’s Tommy Thies catches a touchdown pass during overtime of a Class 6A state semifinal against Nazareth in La Grange Park on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025. (Talia Sprague / Pioneer Press)
“It’s been a dream come true,” Thies said. “I’m speechless. There’s nothing else I can ask for. That’s why I work so hard in the offseason, pushing and pushing, is for this moment.”
Reaching this moment wasn’t easy for the Friars, but the 6-foot, 200-pound Thies was front and center, helping keep Nazareth’s running game in check and pitching in heavily on offense.
Thies started the scoring by taking a quick swing pass from senior quarterback Jamen Williams and plowing ahead 46 yards for a touchdown. In OT, he was wide open in the middle of the end zone.
“It was a play we made on the spot,” Thies said. “I was actually running a clear route, and my quarterback found me.
“We’ve been playing with each other since fifth grade, and the rest is history. I just looked that puppy in, and I got the job done. The ball found me, and I was ready for the moment.”
Thies’ younger brother Jake, a junior running back who accounted for 204 yards on 21 carries and four catches against the Roadrunners (11-2), has come to expect that from him.
“It doesn’t surprise me one bit that he capitalized at the end of the game because I’ve seen him put in the work,” Jake Thies said. “We do everything together, offseason work. We’ve been dreaming of this for quite a while, so it feels amazing that we’re going to play for a state championship.”
Fenwick’s Jake Thies (8) picks up yards as Nazareth’s Frankie Nichols (4) tries to tackle him during a Class 6A state semifinal in La Grange Park on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025. (Talia Sprague / Pioneer Press)
Junior cornerback Josh Morgan also loomed large for the Friars. Nazareth was marching into Fenwick territory with a 21-14 lead midway through the fourth quarter when Morgan picked off senior quarterback Jackson Failla for the second time.
The Friars then went 73 yards on a game-tying scoring drive that ended with Williams’ 4-yard quarterback draw with 1:13 remaining.
Morgan pointed back to Tommy Thies’ impact.
“We call him ‘Wise Man,’” Morgan said. “He really stepped up from last year and took over the leadership role. Everyone goes to him when they have a question because he knows it all.”
Nazareth’s Trenton Walker, right, reaches for a pass under pressure from Fenwick’s Josh Morgan, center, and Tommy Thies during a Class 6A state semifinal in La Grange Park on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025. (Talia Sprague / Pioneer Press)
Thies has even been on the field for Fenwick during a state championship game. But he wasn’t a player back in 2021, when the Friars won the 5A state title.
“He was our ball boy, so that tells you about his connection to the program,” Fenwick coach Matt Battaglia said. “He has been Fenwick through and through since childhood.
“He has dreamt of this moment for his whole life — I can say that without a doubt — dreamt of leading Fenwick downstate with all of his teammates, and the kid pulled it off today.”
But Thies isn’t done yet.
“Everything I do, I try to be the best that I can be, and that’s what happened today,” he said. “I can’t wait for our next practice, and I’m looking forward to getting back on the field.”
Steve Reaven is a freelance reporter.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/22/football-6a-state-semifinal-nazareth-fenwick-tommy-thies/
Trump se une a Jack Nicklaus para renovar ‘campo de golf presidencial’ en la base Andrews
Por WILL WEISSERT
WASHINGTON (AP) — El presidente Donald Trump afirma que está reclutando la ayuda del legendario golfista Jack Nicklaus para embellecer los campos de golf en la Base Conjunta Andrews.
Así, Trump añadirá un sitio conocido desde hace mucho tiempo como el “campo de golf del presidente” a su larga lista de proyectos de construcción.
El presidente realizó un recorrido aéreo de los Campos de Andrews a bordo del helicóptero Marine One el sábado y prometió: “Vamos a hacer algunos trabajos” allí, así como en otras partes de la base.
“Estamos haciendo algunas reparaciones en la base, que lo necesita. Vamos a hacer un intento por reinstaurar los campos de golf. Me estoy reuniendo con el gran Jack Nicklaus”, dijo Trump a los periodistas fuera de la Casa Blanca antes de abordar el Marine One para dirigirse a Andrews. “Él está involucrado en tratar de recuperar su instalación recreativa”.
Ubicada en Maryland, a unos 24,14 kilómetros (15 millas) de la Casa Blanca, Andrews alberga el avión presidencial Air Force One. Gerald R. Ford fue el primer presidente en jugar al golf allí en 1974, pero la instalación fue más recientemente uno de los lugares predilectos de Barack Obama.
La instalación, un activo del 11º Escuadrón de Apoyo de la Fuerza, incluye tres campos de golf de 18 hoyos, tres greens de ensayo, dos áreas privadas para entrenamiento y un campo de prácticas, según el sitio Web de Andrews. Trump dijo que al menos dos de los campos podrían ser renovados.
Trump ha jugado golf en Andrews con poca frecuencia. Prefiere pasar la mayoría de los fines de semana jugando en una de sus propiedades. Estas incluyen los campos en Bedminster, Nueva Jersey, o Mar-a-Lago en Palm Beach, Florida. En esos fines de semana que permanece en la Casa Blanca, Trump a menudo juega golf en su campo en Sterling, Virginia, cerca del Aeropuerto Internacional Dulles.
Nicklaus ganó 18 majors como profesional y acumuló 73 títulos en la Gira de la PGA. La firma Nicklaus Design cuenta con un equipo que ha completado más de 425 campos en 40 estados y más de 45 países.
Trump dijo el sábado que la base en Andrews “era un gran lugar que ha sido destruido a lo largo de los años por falta de mantenimiento”.
“Así que lo arreglaremos, y Jack será el arquitecto y lo diseñará”, afirmó el presidente.
También hizo referencia a “dos campos existentes que están en muy mal estado”, y aseveró: “podemos —por muy poco dinero— arreglarlo”.
“Y estamos mirando otras cosas en Andrews”, añadió Trump.
Los comentarios de Trump inmediatamente generaron preguntas sobre quién está pagando a Nicklaus y cuánto podrían costar tales servicios de diseño. Además, dado que Andrews es propiedad militar, tampoco estaba claro quién paga por las mejoras en sus campos de golf u otras partes de sus terrenos. Andrews remitió las consultas sobre el asunto a la Casa Blanca, que no respondió a una solicitud de más detalles.
El posible rediseño de Andrews sigue a las labores de construcción que ya han demolido el Ala Este de la Casa Blanca para dar cabida a un salón de baile de 300 millones de dólares que Trump encargó. El presidente ha asegurado que esa obra es pagada por él mismo y por donantes privados, incluidos 37 individuos, empresas y organizaciones benéficas que han revelado públicamente su contribución al proyecto.
El trabajo en el salón de baile sigue a las obras de Trump para reemplazar el césped en el Jardín de Rosas con un patio que recuerda a Mar-a-Lago. Ha redecorado el Baño Lincoln y la Sala Palm en el interior de la Casa Blanca.
Asimismo, el presidente instaló un Paseo de la Fama con retratos de mandatarios pasados a lo largo de la Columnata, mástiles en los jardines norte y sur y una renovación sustancial de la Oficina Oval con la adición de adornos dorados, querubines y otros elementos llamativos.
El trabajo en Andrews puede eventualmente unirse a otro proyecto fuera de la Casa Blanca que Trump ha anunciado públicamente: su plan para erigir algo parecido al Arco del Triunfo de París justo al oeste del Monumento a Lincoln.
Trump cedió el control de su negocio familiar a sus hijos cuando regresó a la Casa Blanca, pero ha tenido vínculos con otros campos diseñados por Nicklaus, incluidos el Trump Golf Links en Ferry Point en el distrito del Bronx de la ciudad de Nueva York y el Trump National Jupiter en Florida. La Organización Trump vendió su derecho a operar el campo del Bronx en 2023 a Bally’s Corporation.
The AI Trade: Opportunity Or Warning?
The AI Trade: Opportunity Or Warning?
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
AI Trade Lives On As “Santa Rally” Comes Into View
The markets experienced another volatile trading week as we head into a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed the week lower, but rallied on Friday as options expiration took hold. The consistent selling pressure in AI and semiconductor-related stocks had reversed previous overbought conditions enough for a bounce. The big news was Nvidia’s earnings. Despite the market’s poor reaction (a very normal response following its earnings report), the numbers were stellar.
Nvidia’s earnings beat didn’t just meet expectations; it crushed them on nearly every metric. Revenue jumped 34% quarter over quarter, with data center sales up 41%. Demand for high-performance GPUs continues to outpace supply, and CEO Jensen Huang dismissed fears of a bubble, saying, “This is the beginning of a new industrial revolution.” That quote made the rounds for good reason. The stock’s post-earnings surge lifted the entire tech complex and added another leg to the year’s dominant trade: AI infrastructure.
Importantly, Nvidia’s numbers were more than a sentiment boost. They were confirmation that capital expenditures in AI, particularly by the largest tech platforms, remain robust. Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are all spending aggressively on AI buildouts, and Nvidia sits at the center of that spend. That’s why the stock’s move matters: it’s not just about one company, it’s a read-through on the entire AI supply chain.
On the macro side, the data flow stayed supportive. Jobless claims ticked up slightly, but not enough to suggest deterioration. Inflation expectations, as measured by both breakevens and consumer surveys, remained anchored. Bond yields eased modestly, allowing equities more breathing room. This backdrop checks the boxes on what Nomura refers to as the “Santa Rally” setup: cooling inflation, stable employment, improving liquidity, and no immediate Fed pushback.
Still, not all signals are green. Valuations, particularly in the tech sector, remain elevated, with the forward P/E ratio on the Nasdaq 100 above 25x, significantly higher than historical averages. Meanwhile, earnings growth has slowed in some areas. The market is clearly pricing in an ideal scenario, continued growth, disinflation, and no policy mistakes. That leaves little room for error.
Heading into December, the seasonal tailwinds remain intact, as noted above. December is historically the best month for equities, with the “Santa Claus rally” often delivering average gains of 1.5% to 2.0%. With corporate buybacks in full swing, adding $5-6 billion in daily volume, investor positioning remaining stable, and professional managers underweight in exposure, particularly in technology companies, the fuel for a rally is present. However, the market also remains fragile due to poor underlying breadth and rising volatility, so caution is advised.
The near-term outlook is constructive, provided the Fed remains quiet and bond volatility remains contained. But any surprise, in inflation, growth, or geopolitics, could shift sentiment quickly. The key for investors is discipline. Don’t chase the rally blindly. Stick to quality, stay diversified, and use elevated prices to trim into strength where appropriate. While the potential for a year-end rally is higher after the recent correction, nothing is guaranteed.
Let’s review the technical backdrop.
📈Technical Backdrop – Breadth Tumbles
The bullish run of the past few weeks lost its footing as the S&P 500 closed back below its 50-day moving average, ending the week at 6,603. That break is notable. This level, which had previously served as reliable support since the late October low, gave way under broad selling pressure across sectors. Volume picked up on the move lower, and market breadth weakened significantly, with relative strength and breadth remaining very weak. Furthermore, money flows show the shift from accumulation to distribution.
From a technical standpoint, the index broke below the 50-day moving average, a key support level, and fell to the 100-day moving average during Thursday’s market reversal. While there was much speculation about why the market reversed so significantly on Thursday, most of that reversal was likely due to positioning changes ahead of the options expiration on Friday, which was the largest November expiration on record.
While Friday’s strong bounce of the 100-day moving average is encouraging, we are not out of the woods just yet. As noted above, relative strength and breadth continue to be a concern. Should the 100-day moving average not hold, the next area of support sits around the 200-day moving average near 6,163. However, for now, the current pullback remains within a larger bullish structure, but pressure is mounting that should not be dismissed.
Other markets did not escape the selling pressure this past week. The Nasdaq Composite saw downside follow-through, losing nearly 2.75% on the week and closing back below short-term support levels. The AI-related stock basket declined by more than 5%, while Bitcoin fell by almost 10%. Overall, it was a tough week for investors, but the good news is that most markets are now decently oversold, which is enough for a bounce.
We suggest that investors who struggled emotionally during the recent selloff reassess their positioning. If you found the drawdown difficult to handle, take some action:
Trim Back to Your Risk Tolerance: If the recent decline caused panic or second-guessing, it’s a signal your risk exposure may be too high. Use the bounce to reduce position sizes in volatile or high-beta names. Rebuild your portfolio around positions you can hold through 10–15% corrections without emotional strain. Don’t wait for another leg down to adjust.
Raise Cash Strategically: Cash is not a missed opportunity — it’s optionality. If you had no flexibility during the decline, use the rally to raise some cash. Trim weaker positions or those that only work in one market scenario. A 10–20% cash allocation gives you the ability to buy future dips rather than sell into fear.
Reassess Asset Allocation: Market pullbacks test more than individual stock picks — they expose flaws in allocation. Were you too tech-heavy? Too concentrated? Use this bounce to shift into a more balanced mix of growth, value, and defensives. Ensure your exposure isn’t overly reliant on a single theme, such as AI, small caps, or speculative sectors.
Review Your Exit and Stop Levels: The last two weeks exposed the cost of not having an exit plan. Use this rally to establish or tighten stop-loss levels based on support/resistance — not emotion. Define your max risk per trade or position and write it down. If the market weakens again, you’ll respond with rules, not reactions.
Document What Went Wrong: Use this bounce as a debrief. What specifically made you uncomfortable during the decline? Was it overexposure, leverage, position sizing, or lack of diversification? Write it out. Then build a checklist for your following trades or allocations. Market stress is unavoidable, but self-inflicted damage can be minimized with better preparation.
This is not the time to chase losses or gamble on full recovery. Use strength to reposition with discipline and clarity. Let the market work for you, not against your temperament.
💰 AI Trade Falters
The recent market correction places the “AI trade” under intense scrutiny. Stocks tied to artificial‑intelligence infrastructure, software, and platforms have pulled back, signalling more than a simple sentiment swing. According to Reuters, “investors are fretting over the pace of rate cuts and pricey valuations of heavyweight artificial‑intelligence stocks that have fueled much of the rally.” However, beyond valuation concerns lies a more profound problem: mounting debt issuance and rising credit default-swap (CDS) spreads in key AI-leveraged firms.
Recently, the credit markets have been flashing warning signs. For example, the 5‑year CDS spread for Oracle Corporation has surged to over 100 basis points, up markedly from earlier this year, reflecting increased cost to insure its debt. The trading volume in CDS tied to AI sector debt increased to approximately $4.2 billion over a recent six-week period.
As we discussed in our #DailyMarketCommentary,
“CDS stands for credit default swaps. These are derivative contracts in which one party, the default protection buyer, pays a quarterly fee, expressed in basis points. In return, the counterparty, or protection provider, assures that in the event of default, the buyer will receive par for their bonds. CDS spreads, or the cost of default insurance, provide the market with an easy way to quantify the implied market default probability. While simplified, here is the math to calculate default risk:”
Essentially, the formula divides the cost of insurance by the bond’s par value less the recovery rate. The recovery rate represents the percentage of the bondholders’ investment that will be recovered in the event of default. Often, the market assumes only a 30- to 40-cent recovery of the original investment. Therefore, if we apply that math to the five-year Oracle and CoreWeave CDS spreads, and assuming a 35% default recovery, we get the following annual default probabilities.
Oracle CDS 108 bps: 108 / (10,000*(1-0.35)) = 1.66%
CoreWeave CDS 675 bps: 675 / (10,000*(1-0.35)) = 10.38%
In other words, despite the fear-mongering of the media, default risks remain exceptionally low. So, why this spike? Because tech firms are raising huge sums to build AI data centres and platforms, which took the markets a bit by surprise. Oracle alone plans a $38 billion debt raise and could see net debt near $290 billion by 2028.
The increased leverage introduces refinancing and interest-rate risks, which were previously mostly nonexistent. While the “Mega-cap” companies have large free cash flows, a rising concern is that they are “over-investing” in the future.
“For the first time since Aug’05, a majority (net 20%) of FMS investors say companies are overinvesting; this jump is driven by concerns over the magnitude & financing of the AI capex boom.” – BofA
These are companies counting on large future cash flows to justify their expenditures and debt loads. When investors buy CDS protection, it means they assign a non-trivial probability to default or distress. That signals the market’s growing caution toward the AI growth narrative. Therefore, it is understandable why the recent correction in the “AI trade” has been more than just a minor fluctuation. It is reflecting investors’ demand for proof regarding execution, earnings, and balance-sheet resilience.
From an investor’s viewpoint, this means determining whether the current correction is genuinely a “thesis shift” or just a long-overdue price correction. The AI trade that powered recent rallies was built on promise and narrative. Now, the same firms are being evaluated on their ability to convert that promise into profits while managing sizable debt burdens in a higher interest rate environment.
These concerns raise a critical question.
Is the recent equity sell‑off an early warning or an entry point?
Opportunity or Warning?
The structural opportunity for the “AI trade” remains substantial. According to a report from McKinsey & Company, generative AI and other advanced AI use cases could unlock as much as $4.4 trillion in productivity gains for business users alone. Meanwhile, research from S&P Global Market Intelligence indicates that the market for code‑generation tools is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of about 53% from 2024 to 2029.
These data points underscore a broad expectation: companies that adopt AI at scale will see top‑line growth and cost efficiency improvements. Another research piece from the Boston Consulting Group shows that the adoption of “agentic AI” is set to rise from 17% of total AI value in 2025 to 29% by 2028, suggesting a transition from pilot phases to genuine business deployments. Further adding to the opportunity, the Bank of England has flagged that between 2025 and 2028, AI infrastructure capital expenditure may reach as high as $2.9 trillion, with roughly $1.5 trillion of that coming from external capital sources.
While debt is being used to build data centers, that same debt is “productive” and will boost economic growth, which in turn increases revenues to these companies from increased demand. For more on the impact of spending on economic growth, you can read:
The Deficit Narrative May Find Its Cure In Artificial Intelligence – RIA
Economic Reacceleration: A Contrarian View – RIA
Capex Spending On AI Is Masking Economic Weakness – RIA
Further supporting the bull case, Nvidia’s recent earnings shattered expectations. The company reported record sales and raised its guidance again, with CEO Jensen Huang explicitly rejecting the notion of an AI bubble.
“We are at the beginning of a new computing era. What we see is not hype. It’s real, broad-based demand across nearly every industry.” – CNBC
Demand for GPUs remains so high that hardware is selling out despite increased supply, a sign that adoption is continuing at a substantial pace. These fundamentals suggest that companies correctly positioned in the AI ecosystem may experience significant increases in revenue and cash flow. For example, platforms that host AI workloads, chipmakers who supply the infrastructure, and software vendors who embed AI into enterprise applications could all benefit from a multi-year growth phase. Given that many firms are still in the early stages of monetizing their AI investments, the long-term horizon remains favorable. In other words, if this thesis proves to be true, the current weakness in some AI stocks could represent a tactical entry point for the patient and selective investor.
However, the warning side of the ledger is equally essential.
The rapid advance of AI-related mega-cap stocks in 2025 has already delivered exceptional gains. According to Business Insider, investors are “rethinking the red‑hot AI trade,” noting that some firms with strong earnings still experienced share-price declines because valuation expectations had outpaced actual performance. Similarly, the Bank of England has raised concerns that a “sharp market correction has increased” given stretched valuations, especially in the AI‑tech segment. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that much of the upside from the AI boom may already be reflected in current stock prices, as they estimate $5 trillion to $19 trillion in extra revenue upside. As noted, their concern, and a valid one, is that the market has already priced in a significant portion of that.
From a fundamental perspective, the warning is two-fold:
While long-term revenue growth expectations remain strong, many companies have yet to convert investments into substantial cash flows. A study in the arXiv preprint archive introduces a “Capability Realisation Rate” (CRR) model. It states that many AI-native firms are valued based on their future potential rather than their current results, creating a “valuation misalignment risk.”
The sheer pace of gains in AI‑exposed stocks has raised the bar for future performance. As one analyst put it: “Even a company like Palantir Technologies has seen its share price hammered, even though its results did top expectations, nosebleed valuations got in the way.” In other words, the risk is not just execution, but also expectations that are unrealistically high and already factored into the price.
In summary, the fundamentals support the AI opportunity, driven by a large addressable market, accelerated adoption, and potential for margin improvement. But at the same time, the warning signs are real, from elevated valuations, compressed margins for error, and a market that has already rewarded much of the expected growth. This brings us to two crucial takeaways:
If you take the long view and are willing to invest in companies with proven execution and realistic valuation, then a measured exposure makes sense.
But if you are chasing momentum in speculative names, this moment leans more toward caution than indiscriminate buying.
To succeed, you must know yourself.
Know Your Investing Behavior Before You Bet on AI
Before you take a position in the AI trade, you need to understand how you respond to volatility. This is not a casual theme. It is a long-term investment tied to one of the most transformational technologies in decades, but it also comes with risk, hype cycles, and rapid repricing. How you behave during corrections will shape your outcomes more than your entry point.
If you tend to panic sell at the first sign of a 10% decline, then the warning signs discussed earlier should weigh heavily in your decision-making. AI stocks have seen massive runs and are now facing increased scrutiny. The price declines we’ve seen recently are not anomalies, and they are reminders that high-momentum sectors can turn quickly. Even companies with strong fundamentals are vulnerable if investor expectations are unrealistic. As Credit Suisse’s recent behavioral finance outlook put it:
“Narrative-driven investing creates price swings that reward patience and punish emotional decisions.”
This is the phase we’re entering now.
If you’re a long-term investor and can withstand volatility, the AI trade may still be early in its cycle. According to Goldman Sachs, the bulk of AI-driven revenue gains may not materialize until 2027 or later, especially for enterprise use cases and infrastructure services. If you understand that, and you’re building a position with a 3–5 year horizon, the current reset offers an opportunity to build into positions that you will want to own. This assumes you’re disciplined about risk, diversified in your exposures, and clear-eyed about the timeline required for these investments to deliver.
If you don’t know how to manage risk, read: Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth – RIA
AI is not a meme stock story. It’s a structural transition playing out unevenly across sectors and balance sheets. The volatility will continue, and if you’re inclined to sell during the inevitable drawdowns, then your odds of capturing the long-term value shrink. Recognize your personal investment behavior before deciding how — or if — to engage.
🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week
Next week is a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but that doesn’t mean it will be quiet. Liquidity will be thinner, which can exacerbate volatility around key data releases. The most important report to watch is the October PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. It will be released on Wednesday and could have a significant impact on rate expectations leading up to December’s FOMC meeting.
Markets are coming off a technically weak stretch, and any upside surprise in PCE could pressure yields higher, further challenging equity valuations. On the flip side, a soft print would reinforce the “Goldilocks” narrative and increase the odds of a continued year-end rally. Also worth watching will be consumer sentiment and spending data. With the holiday shopping season underway, any signs of weakness could impact retail stocks, which have underperformed broadly in the fourth quarter.
Additionally, Fed officials are entering the quiet period ahead of the following policy meeting, meaning this is the final week to hear public comments. Traders should pay attention to any comments around financial conditions or balance sheet policy. With the bond market still adjusting to the Fed’s recent dovish tilt, language from speakers like Waller and Goolsbee could matter more than usual.
With fewer trading sessions and lower volume, markets will be more sensitive to headline risk. Stay nimble and be selective with your positioning as we enter a potentially volatile week.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/22/2025 – 19:50
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-trade-opportunity-or-warning
Aurora man sentenced to 13 years in prison for involuntary servitude of women
An Aurora man has agreed to a sentence of 13 years in prison in exchange for pleading guilty to six felony counts of involuntary servitude for using illegal drugs, threats and physical force to control women providing paid sexual acts, according to the Kane County State’s Attorney’s Office.
According to information presented in court by Kane County Assistant State’s Attorney Matthew Rodgers, Jamar R. Hare, 32, “profited financially” from an operation during 2020 and 2021 involving men paying for sexual acts from women under Hare’s control at a residence in Aurora, a news release from the State’s Attorney’s Office said.
Prosecutors said Hare used illegal drugs, threats and physical force to control the women, all of whom were over 18 years old, the news release said.
Hare agreed to a 13-year sentence in state prison in exchange for pleading guilty to six counts of involuntary servitude, which is a Class X felony, the release said. Each count includes a different named victim.
Each of the six 13-year sentences run concurrently, the release noted, and Hare receives credit for 270 days served in the Kane County jail.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/22/aurora-man-sentenced-involuntary-servitude/
Daily Horoscope for November 23, 2025
General Daily Insight for November 23, 2025
We have more power than we might think. As the luminous Sun forms a cooperative sextile with transformative Pluto at 2:20 PM EST, we can recognize where steady effort invites meaningful change. Morning conversations might reveal unexpectedly simple fixes. Meanwhile, afternoon choices flow smoothly as we align intentions with actions and share support. By evening, the mood should steady. Small promises kept rebuild trust and help us close the day feeling more capable and a little lighter. Choose one doable change and stick with it!
Aries
March 21 – April 19
Fresh ideas point you toward distant horizons. The energetic Sun leaps into frame with powerful Pluto, turning your 9th House of Updates and your 11th House of Society into transformative opportunities to move and grow. Travel doesn’t have to be expensive — but if it is out of your budget, you can still send your mind to distant locales by joining a local library’s book club. Talk about the things that interest you, because such conversations shape your future plans. Say yes to learning!
Taurus
April 20 – May 20
Secure choices come from honest talks. Money isn’t always fun to talk about, but at least you have the Sun and Pluto guiding you through such complicated conversations. Their sextile can boost your efforts to review joint budgets, renegotiate bills, or attack shared debt. Make an effort to ensure everyone involved is clear about their role — that’s the best way to stay accountable as a team. You can be patient without being pushy, especially in regard to money owed. Reliability strengthens every bond.
Gemini
May 21 – June 20
Present partnerships work best with curious, kind words. A bridge forms in your one-on-one sector as the Sun reaches out from there to sextile intimate Pluto. When you promise something, make sure the person you’re talking to understands what you actually mean. Drafting plans for shared travel (especially with several upcoming winter holidays) will be easier when you can trust each other’s words. Stay open to compromise as necessary, but don’t back down from your needs. Speak gently and directly, letting open dialogue nurture trust.
Cancer
June 21 – July 22
Simple routines now carry emotional relief. The radiant Sun makes a cooperative sextile with intimate Pluto, highlighting your 6th House of Daily Routines and your caring 8th house. Minor changes in your habits nurture bigger positive shifts. You may adjust a work schedule to avoid having to take work home, or set boundaries around which areas of the house are actually your responsibility to clean. Going forward, consistency will be vital to support your professional (or personal) community. Teamwork makes the dream work!
Leo
July 23 – August 22
Your spark wants a playful place to land. Your expressive 5th house gets a warm lift as the blissful Sun sextiles renewing Pluto, inviting bold expression and heartfelt connection. You may plan a coffee meet-up with a close friend, especially one you haven’t seen lately. Show them some appreciation, and they may return the favor! Pride softens into generosity when you remember the goal is joy, so share the stage and let praise be a two-way street. Create without overthinking, because play unlocks confidence.
Virgo
August 23 – September 22
Your home base might need a reset, Virgo. Today’s Sun-Pluto sextile is clarifying your domestic needs, especially those small but vital tasks like sweeping or laundry. Is everyone in your home doing their part? Even though Virgos are seen as tidy individuals, the cleaning shouldn’t be entirely on you. If you live alone, how can you make your routines easier to uphold? For instance, putting a hamper in the bathroom could banish dirty clothes from the floor there. Simple shifts can help a lot!
Libra
September 23 – October 22
Words land softly when your heart stays balanced. The feisty Sun is leaping into a sextile with eager Pluto. They’re impacting your chatty 3rd house and your loving 5th house, encouraging you to reach out to your neighbors and the nearby community. You may text a sibling to mend a mix-up or invite a friend to try a new hobby together. Don’t take offense if someone rejects you — sometimes it happens, and you know how to handle it with grace. Social peace is possible.
Scorpio
October 23 – November 21
What does “value” mean to you right now? That’s the question of the day under the sextile between the Sun in your income quadrant and Pluto in your foundation sector. This is a cosmic reminder to price your time fairly and keep an eye on your expenditures. Experience will tell you whether or not brand names are actually worth it. The planets are empowering you to release guilt and stand by your choices. You know the right time to pick the more expensive option!
Sagittarius
November 22 – December 21
A fresh spark lights your inner fire. You can fan those embers into a flame while the dynamic Sun shares a sextile with intense Pluto, boosting your confidence and inviting you to express yourself. Work up the courage to suggest a unique path forward! Your messages are also more likely to land with your audience at this time. One intriguing idea could be enough to get everyone in on your plans! Keep the fire burning by being willing to face potential mistakes with honest action.
Capricorn
December 22 – January 19
Quiet time restores your steady inner engine. The mighty Sun is invigorating dark Pluto, drawing attention to your dreamy 12th house. Taking a nap is sometimes the most productive thing you can do! You could also take a walk or spend time journaling — both are great ways to release old aches. Along the way, your resourceful 2nd house supports simple comfort without overspending. Your patient nature makes space for quiet closure, because settling the past frees energy for future goals. Protect your rest.
Aquarius
January 20 – February 18
Your loved ones can currently offer a boost — even unintentionally. Pluto’s in your sign, empowering the trine from the Sun in your social 11th house to magnify efforts to help one another. You may propose a volunteer day that tests a community tool or let your friends bring over a meal to share. Everyone’s got their quirks, and everyone needs assistance sometimes. A shared burden will be less stressful for all contributors. Whatever happens, you can all have fun together!
Pisces
February 19 – March 20
Your calling whispers in a level voice. Opportunity flows toward your path while the shimmering Sun sextiles unearthing Pluto, focusing your 10th House of Career so leadership feels natural and visibility grows. You may take on a project needing coordination, so a thoughtful update to a supervisor should land well. At home, your 12th house encourages reflection before each step. Your sensitivity becomes strength when you listen to the subtext, since empathy can turn tension into a workable plan. Lead quietly, but with confidence.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/22/daily-horoscope-for-november-23-2025/
Italia supera a un competitivo Chile por 34-19 en su primer enfrentamiento en rugby
GÉNOVA, Italia (AP) — Italia se recuperó de un tramo complicado a mitad de un partido que se enredó más de lo previsto, para superar el sábado 34-19 a Chile.
Los Azzurri lograron cinco tries. Ange Capuozzo los puso en camino de la victoria, seguido de un try en cada mitad por parte de Tommaso Di Bartolomeo antes de que Monty Ioane añadiera otros dos.
Giacomo Da Re convirtió tres y también sumó un penal.
Sin embargo, fue una actuación algo pobre de Italia, que permitió a Chile anotar tres tries en lo que fue el primer encuentro entre ambas naciones.
Italia tomó una ventaja de 15-0 antes de que dos de esos tries, de Salvador Lues y Nicolás Saab, permitieran a Chile reducir la diferencia a uno.
Clemente Saavedra añadió otro try para los visitantes justo al final.
Hubo una nota positiva para Italia, con el debut de los adolescentes Enoch Opoku-Gyamfi y Edoardo Todaro, quienes entraron como reemplazos en las postrimerías.
El entrenador de Italia, Gonzalo Quesada, había hecho diez cambios en su alineación titular respecto de la derrota de la semana pasada por 32-14 ante Sudáfrica. Los Azzurri abrieron sus internacionales de otoño sorprendiendo a Australia con un triunfo de 26-19.
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Deportes AP: https://apnews.com/hub/deportes
Takeaways from the outcome of UN climate talks in Brazil
BELEM, Brazil — After two weeks of negotiations, this year’s United Nations climate talks ended Saturday with a compromise that some criticized as weak and others called progress.
The deal finalized at the COP30 conference pledges more money to help countries adapt to climate change, but lacks explicit plans to transition away from the fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas that heat the planet.
The conference didn’t do as much as scientists thought the world needed. It wasn’t as meaningful as activists and Indigenous people demanded. Few countries got everything they wanted. And the venue even caught fire.
But that disappointment is mixed with a few wins and the hope for countries to make more progress next year.
Here’s what you need to know about the outcome.
Leaders tried to nail down specifics on fighting climate change
Leaders have been working on how to fight the impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather and sea level rise, for a decade. To do that, every country had the homework of writing up their own national climate plans and then reconvened this month to see if it was enough.
Most didn’t get a good grade and some haven’t even turned it in.
Brazil, host of the climate conference known as COP30, was trying to get them to cooperate on the toughest issues like climate-related trade restrictions, funding for climate solutions, national climate-fighting plans and more transparency on measuring those plans’ progress.
More than 80 countries tried to introduce a detailed guide to phase out fossil fuels over the next several decades. There were other to-do items on topics including deforestation, gender and farming.
Countries reached what critics called a weak compromise
Nations agreed to triple the amount of money promised to help the vulnerable countries adapt to climate change. But they will take five more years to do it. Some vulnerable island countries said they were happy about the financial support.
But the final document didn’t include a road map away from fossil fuels, angering many.
After the agreement was reached, COP President André Corrêa do Lago said Brazil would take an extra step and write their own road map. Not all countries signed up to this, but those on board will meet next year to specifically talk about the fossil fuel phase out. It would not carry the same weight as something agreed to at the conference.
Also included in the package were smaller agreements on energy grids and biofuels.
Responses ranged from happy to angry
“Given what we expected, what we came out with, we were happy,” said Ilana Seid, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States.
But others felt discouraged. Heated exchanges took place during the conference’s final meeting as countries snipped at each other about the fossil fuel plan.
“I will be brutally honest: The COP and the U.N. system are not working for you. They have never really worked for you. And today, they are failing you at a historic scale,” said Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, a negotiator for Panama.
Jiwoh Abdulai, Sierra Leone’s environment and climate change minister said: “COP30 has not delivered everything Africa asked for, but it has moved the needle.” He added: “This is a floor, not a ceiling.”
The real outcome of this year’s climate talks will be judged on “how quickly these words turn into real projects that protect lives and livelihoods,” he said.
Talks set against the Amazon rainforest
Participants experienced the Amazon’s extreme heat and humidity and heavy rains that flooded walkways. Organizers who chose Belem, on the edge of the rainforest, as the host city had intended for countries to experience firsthand what was at stake with climate change, and take bold action to stop it.
But afterward, critics said the deal shows how hard it is to find global cooperation on issues that affect everyone, most of all people in poverty, Indigenous people, women and children around the world.
“At the start of this COP, there was this high level of ambition. We started with a bang, but we ended with a whimper of disappointment,” said former Philippine negotiator Jasper Inventor, now at Greenpeace International.
Indigenous people, civil society and youth
One of the nicknames for the climate talks in Brazil was the “Indigenous peoples’ COP.” Yet some in those groups said they had to fight to be heard.
Protesters from Indigenous groups twice disrupted the conference to demand a bigger seat at the table. While Indigenous people’s rights weren’t officially on the agenda, Taily Terena, an Indigenous woman from the Terena nation in Brazil, said so far she is happy with the text because for the first time it includes a paragraph mentioning Indigenous rights.
She supported countries speaking up on procedural issues because that’s how multilateralism works. “It’s kind of chaotic, but from our perspective, it’s kind of good that some countries have a reaction,” she said.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/22/takeaways-un-climate-talks-brazil/
Nieta de JFK revela diagnóstico de cáncer terminal y critica a su primo RFK Jr.
La nieta de John F. Kennedy reveló el sábado que padece de cáncer terminal, escribiendo en un ensayo para “The New Yorker” que uno de sus médicos le dijo que podría tener un año más de vida.
Tatiana Schlossberg, hija de la hija de Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy y Edwin Schlossberg, escribió que en mayo de 2024 recibió su diagnóstico, a los 34 años de edad. Después del nacimiento de su segundo hijo, su médico notó que su conteo de glóbulos blancos era elevado. Resultó ser leucemia mieloide aguda con una rara mutación, padecimiento que se observa principalmente en personas mayores, escribió.
Su ensayo fue publicado en el 62º aniversario del asesinato de su abuelo.
Schlossberg, periodista ambiental, escribió que ha pasado por varias rondas de quimioterapia y dos trasplantes de células madre, el primero con células de su hermana y el siguiente proveniente de un donante no relacionado, además de que participó en ensayos clínicos. Durante su más reciente ensayo, escribió que su médico le dijo “podría mantenerme con vida por un año, tal vez”.
Schlossberg dijo que las políticas que impulsa su primo, el secretario de Salud y Servicios Humanos Robert F. Kennedy Jr., podrían perjudicar a pacientes con cáncer como ella. Caroline Kennedy hizo un llamado a los senadores para rechazar la confirmación de RFK Jr.
“Conforme pasaba más y más tiempo de vida bajo el cuidado de médicos, enfermeras e investigadores que se esfuerzan por mejorar la vida de los demás, pude ver cómo Bobby recortó casi 500.000 millones de dólares para la investigación en vacunas de ARNm, tecnología que podría usarse contra ciertos tipos de cáncer”, escribió en el ensayo.
Schlossberg escribió sobre su miedo a que su hija y su hijo no la recuerden. Se siente engañada y triste de no poder seguir viviendo “la maravillosa vida” que tenía con su esposo, George Moran. Aunque sus padres y hermanos intentan ocultarle su dolor, dijo que lo siente todos los días.
“Durante toda mi vida, he tratado de ser buena, de ser una buena estudiante y una buena hermana y una buena hija, y de proteger a mi madre y nunca hacerla enojar o molestar”, escribió. “Ahora he añadido una nueva tragedia a su vida, a la vida de nuestra familia, y no hay nada que pueda hacer para detenerlo”.
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Esta historia fue traducida del inglés por un editor de AP con la ayuda de una herramienta de inteligencia artificial generativa.
No. 9 Notre Dame scores 21 before offense takes field in 70-7 rout of Syracuse in latest entry for CFP case
SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Nearly eight minutes had ticked off the game clock Saturday afternoon at Notre Dame Stadium when the Irish offense — powered by Heisman Trophy candidate Jeremiyah Love at running back and rising freshman star CJ Carr at quarterback — took the field for the first time.
Notre Dame already led Syracuse by 21 points.
As the No. 9 Irish (9-2) try to complete their march from an 0-2 start to the College Football Playoff, they can’t control the quality of opponents they face in the home stretch. Syracuse and Stanford, Notre Dame’s final regular-season opponent next weekend, entered Saturday with three wins apiece.
The Irish can, however, control how thoroughly they beat those two opponents. And Notre Dame’s start in a 70-7 win over Syracuse on a crisp and clear afternoon was astounding, no matter the opponent. The Irish opened the game with two pick-sixes sandwiched around a punt-return touchdown on three consecutive Syracuse drives before their offense took a snap. They led 35-0 in the first quarter — tied with the 1921 team for their most-ever points in the opening quarter — after having run only five offensive plays.
With 14 minutes, 9 seconds left in the first, senior safety Jalen Stroman, playing in place of injured starter Tae Johnson (left hand) on senior day, darted forward in front of Syracuse tight end Dan Villari to pick off quarterback Joseph Filardi. Stroman returned the interception 44 yards for a touchdown.
7-0 Notre Dame.
With 12:19 left in the first, Stroman got a hand on Jack Stonehouse’s punt, which traveled only 7 yards before Luke Talich grabbed the football out of the air and returned it 22 yards for a touchdown.
14-0 Notre Dame.
With 9:50 left in the first, Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore snared his fourth interception and turned it into his first pick-six of the season with a 46-yard return.
21-0 Notre Dame, the first time since 2002 the Irish defense or special teams scored the first three touchdowns of a game.
Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price runs for a 58-yard touchdown against Syracuse during the first quarter Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025, in South Bend, Ind. (Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
Then, after the Notre Dame defense forced a run-of-the-mill three-and-out, the offense finally took the field. Two plays later, Love scored on a 45-yard touchdown run. On the third play of the next drive, Jadarian Price broke for a 58-yard touchdown and a 35-0 lead.
Syracuse entered the game off six straight losses, including a 38-10 defeat to No. 13 Miami in its last game Nov. 8. So the win isn’t going to be Example A as to why the Irish are deserving of a CFP berth.
But it’s certainly a piece of Notre Dame’s rebuilt case after opening losses to Miami and No. 3 Texas A&M by a combined four points in Carr’s first two collegiate starts.
Since then, the Irish have won nine straight. They entered Saturday tied for eighth in the nation with 38.3 points per game and ranked 18th with 458.2 yards per game. Since Sept. 27, the defense has allowed only one opponent to score more than 15 points — No. 15 USC in Notre Dame’s 34-24 victory.
No team had beaten Syracuse like Notre Dame, which led 49-0 at halftime.
Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love runs for a touchdown during the first quarter against Syracuse on Nov. 22, 2025, in South Bend, Ind. (Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
Love, whose Heisman credentials were spelled out on a Notre Dame PR handout for reporters before the game, topped 100 rushing yards for the sixth time this season with eight carries for 171 yards and three touchdowns. He also scored on runs of 14 and 68 yards before taking a seat early in the second half, leading an Irish rushing attacked that piled up 329 yards and six TDs.
Carr didn’t need to do much, completing five passes — one of which was a touchdown to Will Pauling — for 49 yards before backup Kenny Minchey took over in the third quarter.
Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore celebrates an interception return for a touchdown during the first quarter against Syracuse on Nov. 22, 2025 in South Bend, Ind. (Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
And the Notre Dame defense nearly had a shutout until Filardi scored on a 6-yard run with seven seconds to play. The Irish had three interceptions. Syracuse also had a chance to score at the end of the first half, but kicker Tripp Woody bounced a 48-yard field-goal attempt off the left upright and out.
Last season, after the Irish suffered a stunning loss to Northern Illinois, they rattled off 10 straight wins to make the playoff — and then three more wins to make the national championship game. To complete a second straight 10-game regular-season winning streak, the Irish must beat Stanford in a late-night game on the West Coast on Nov. 29.
Then they need to have faith that a CFP committee that so far has looked favorably upon the Irish continues to do so.
That’s what is left on the Irish to-do list this regular season after Saturday’s dominant showing: a win and a prayer, though maybe the second isn’t needed.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/22/notre-dame-syracuse-football/
