This morning’s survey data on the US manufacturing economy comes as the post-shutdown slump in ‘soft’ data has dominated desk conversations amid the vacuum of hard macro data…

But the picture remains mixed:

S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI BEAT expectations in November but dipped on a MoM basis from 52.5 to 52.2 (still in expansion territory and up from the 51.9 flash print).

ISM’s Manufacturing PMI MISSED expectations, dropping from 48.7 to 48.2 (well below the 49.0 expectation) and in contraction for the ninth month in a row.

Although the headline PMI signalled a further expansion of factory activity in November, “the health of the US manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface,” according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“The main impetus came from a strong rise in factory production, but growth in new order inflows slowed sharply, hinting at a marked weakening of demand growth.”

Under the hood, ISM shows Price Paid higher, and new orders and employment worsening…

For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data were available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.

“Profit margins are meanwhile coming under pressure from a combination of disappointing sales, stiff competition and rising input costs, the latter widely linked to tariffs.

In short, Williamson notes that manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products. 

“This combination of sustained robust production growth alongside weaker than expected sales led to a worryingly steep rise in unsold inventories.”

ISM Respondents were pretty clear with blame for weakness being placed at Trump’s feet in Washington:

“New order entries are within the forecast. We have increased requests from customers to get their orders sooner. Transit time on imports seems to be longer.” (Machinery)

“We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment. This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.” (Transportation Equipment)

“Tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in building construction.” (Chemical Products)

“No major changes at this time, but going into 2026, we expect to see big changes with cash flow and employee head count. The company has sold off a big part of the business that generated free cash while offering voluntary severance packages to anyone.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)

“Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

“The unstable market has made pricing fluctuate in a very volatile way; I have had to reduce suppliers for raw materials to maintain a better direct cost structure. Reducing my suppliers has reduced the availability of some items and created longer lead times.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

“Business continues to be a struggle regarding long-term sourcing decisions based on tariffs and landing costs. External (or international) sourcing remains the lowest-cost solution compared to U.S. production/manufacturing. The delta is smaller now, reducing margins.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

“The government shutdown has impacted our access to agricultural data, impacting agricultural markets and, as a result, decisions we make. Optimism for a tariff exemption on palm oil percolated but hasn’t come to fruition at this time.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

“Trade confusion. At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. — before I even have the opportunity to import. Freight organizations are also having difficulties overseas, contending with changing regulations and uncertainty. Conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

“Domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our customers are taking prompt orders only and still don’t have confidence to build inventory, much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind of ‘planning’ has been undermined by unpredictability due to inconsistent messaging from Washington. Artificial intelligence is in its infancy stages, producing confusing and most often inaccurate information. This also causes apprehensive consumer buying patterns, contributing to the challenge of forecasting demand.” (Wood Products)

However, there is hope, as manufacturers have grown more optimistic about the year ahead, with the ending of the government shutdown helping lift confidence from the sharp drop suffered in October.

“Optimism is being fueled by hopes of improved policy support, including lower interest rates, as well as greater political stability, though it is clear that uncertainty remains elevated and a drag on business growth in many firms, holding confidence well below levels seen at the start of the year.”

As noted earlier, Asia kickstarted December in a weak mood with Bitcoin down another -6% this morning and Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures both notably lower. 10yr US Treasuries are +3bps and 10yr JGBs are +6.7bps as Ueda said at a speech this morning “At the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM), the Bank will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad as well as developments in financial and capital markets, including the point I just mentioned, based on various data and information, and will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate.”

DB’s Japanese economist believes this strongly suggests an interest rate hike at the December meeting and has pushed forward his view of a hike from January to the meeting later this month, the Friday before Christmas. Market pricing has increased from a probability of just under 60% to 83%. This story brings shades of the 2022 meeting just before Xmas when the BoJ lifted its cap on 10yr JGBs from 0.25% to 0.5%. That saw the market spooked a little. The Yen has risen by +0.39% and the Nikkei is -2.04% lower this morning with 2yr yields +5bps, surpassing the 1% threshold and reaching their highest point since June 2008. 

This coming week will allow forecasters to also fine-tune their Fed views ahead of that. There is plenty of data to get through, both shutdown-delayed and routine. Globally, we have European CPI tomorrow and PPI on Wednesday, following German and French CPI prints today. Various global PMIs are also out today, and we also have Cyber Monday, which follows what seems to have been a decent Black Friday weekend. As an example, Mastercard’s SpendingPulse index was up +4.1% on Friday, up from 3.4% last year. Newsflow continues to bubble up around peace negotiations for the war in Ukraine, so that’s one to watch as well.

Focusing in on the US, the Federal Reserve is firmly in its pre-meeting communications blackout ahead of the 10 December FOMC decision, leaving economic releases to do the talking. Markets have already priced an 80% chance of a 25bp cut next week, and this week’s data will help shape that view as well as expectations for 2026.

The US calendar begins today with the ISM Manufacturing Index, expected to hold near recent averages at 48.5, signalling continued softness in factory activity. Tomorrow brings unit motor vehicle sales, forecast at 15.8 million units, a modest improvement from October. Wednesday is the busiest day, featuring the ADP employment report, expected to show a gain of 50,000 jobs versus 42,000 previously. This report will take on added significance as it will be the most up-to-date labor market data available to Fed officials before they meet. Also due Wednesday are industrial production, likely to rise 0.1% after a slight decline last month, and the ISM Services Index, projected at 51.8, close to its two-year trend. On Thursday, factory orders should show a 0.5% increase, pointing to resilient capital spending. Friday rounds out the week with the delayed September personal income and consumption report, and within it, the more important core PCE. This is expected to hold at 0.23% month-on-month, keeping the annual rate near 2.9%, a tenth above what the Fed was tracking when they only had CPI to use. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also anticipated to edge up to 54.0 from 51.0. While sentiment remains depressed—its 24-month average is comparable to Great Recession levels according to our economists—real GDP growth of 2.6% annualized over the past eight quarters and inflation-adjusted consumer spending growth of 2.8% underscore the economy’s resilience. Note that the combined September and October JOLTS report has been rescheduled for 9 December, while October and November payrolls and unemployment data will not arrive until 16 December, well after the FOMC meeting.

Across Europe, inflation will dominate the agenda. Country-level CPI prints for Germany and France set the tone today, followed by the Eurozone flash CPI for November tomorrow. Switzerland reports inflation figures on Wednesday, and Sweden follows on Thursday. These data points will be closely watched for confirmation that disinflation trends remain intact across the continent.

In Asia, the focus turns to manufacturing and policy signals. Most of China’s PMI data came out yesterday and this morning, but we still have the private-sector services PMI on Wednesday.

Geopolitical developments will also feature prominently. US and Ukrainian delegates met in Florida yesterday without any incremental headlines of note. The US’s main negotiator Witkoff is expected to travel to Moscow today and likely meet Putin tomorrow. EU defence ministers meet today on the same topic, followed by NATO foreign affairs ministers on Wednesday for further strategic discussions. French President Macron undertakes a state visit to China from Wednesday to Friday, underscoring diplomatic engagement in Asia.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday December 1

Data: US November ISM index, China manufacturing PMI, UK October net consumer credit, M4, Japan November monetary base, Italy November manufacturing PMI, budget balance, new car registrations, Canada November manufacturing PMI
Central banks: BoJ’s Ueda speaks, ECB’s Nagel speaks, BoE’s Dhingra speaks
Other: EU foreign affairs council (defence)

Tuesday December 2

Data: US November total vehicle sales, Japan November consumer confidence index, France October budget balance, Italy October unemployment rate, PPI, Eurozone November CPI, October unemployment rate
Central banks: Fed’s Powell and Bowman speak, ECB’s Dolenc speaks
Earnings: Crowdstrike, Marvell
Other: OECD economic outlook

Wednesday December 3

Data: US November ISM services, ADP report, September industrial production, import price index, export price index, capacity utilisation, China services PMI, UK November official reserves changes, Italy November services PMI, Eurozone October PPI, Canada Q3 labor productivity, Australia Q3 GDP, Switzerland November CPI
Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde and Lane speak, BoE’s Mann speaks
Earnings: Salesforce, Snowflake, Inditex, Macy’s, Dollar Tree, Royal Bank of Canada
Other: NATO foreign affairs ministers meeting

Thursday December 4

Data: US initial jobless claims, UK November new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan October household spending, Germany November construction PMI, Eurozone October retail sales, Sweden November CPI
Central banks: Fed’s Bowman speaks, ECB’s Kocher, Cipollone and Lane speak, BoE’s Mann speaks, BoE’s DMP survey
Earnings: Kroger, Dollar General, HPE

Friday December 5

Data: US September PCE, personal income, personal spending, December University of Michigan survey, October consumer credit, Japan October leading index, coincident index, Germany October factory orders, France October trade balance, current account balance, industrial production, Italy October retail sales, Canada November labour force survey
Central banks: ECB’s Lane speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing and services indexes on Monday and Wednesday and core PCE inflation and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are no speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC’s blackout period.

Monday, December 1 

09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, November final (consensus 51.9, last 51.9)
10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, November (GS 49.0, consensus 49.0, last 48.7): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index rebounded 0.3pt to 49.0 in November, reflecting slight improvement in our manufacturing survey tracker (+0.1pt to 51.6).

Tuesday, December 2 

05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, November (GS 15.4mn, consensus 15.5mn, last 15.3mn)

Wednesday, December 3 

08:15 AM ADP employment change, November (GS -20k, consensus +10k, last +42k)
08:30 AM Import price index, September (consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%)
09:15 AM Industrial production, September (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last -0.1%): Manufacturing production, September (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); Capacity utilization, September (GS 75.8%, consensus 77.3%, last 75.8%): We estimate that industrial production was unchanged in September, as declines in auto manufacturing and natural gas production were offset by increases in non-auto manufacturing and electricity, oil and gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 75.8%, following the recent downward adjustment implied by the annual revision to the industrial production index. 
09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, November final (consensus 55.0, last 55.0)
10:00 AM ISM services index, November (GS 52.5, consensus 52.0, last 52.4): We estimate that the ISM services index increased 0.1pt to 52.5 in November, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+0.6pt to 53.1).

Thursday, December 4 

08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 29 (GS 215k, consensus 222k, last 216k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 22 (consensus 1,956k, last 1,960k)

Friday, December 5 

10:00 AM Personal income, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Core PCE price index, September (GS +0.22%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index (YoY), September (GS +2.85%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.9%); PCE price index, September (GS +0.29%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), September (GS +2.81%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.7%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, in September. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.22% in September, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.85%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.29% in September, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.81%. We estimate that market-based core PCE rose 0.23% in September.
10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December preliminary (GS 52.5, consensus 52.0, last 51.0): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, December preliminary (GS 3.3%, last 3.4%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Both sides kept their comments somewhat vague after the US and Ukrainian delegations met in Miami on Sunday to discuss a potential outline for a peace deal to end the war with Russia. One of the Ukrainian delegates called it “intense but not negative.” Axios wrote, “After an hour in a wider format, the meeting narrowed to three officials from each side — with the line of territorial control virtually the only issue discussed, according to the two Ukrainian officials.”

The American side which was led Secretary of State Marco Rubio cited simply that there’s “more work to be done,” including more direct engagement with Russia, also as Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow this week to meet with President Vladimir Putin. Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, also attended the talks, despite not actually having an official position in the Trump administration. Axios reports some of the details gleaned thus far as follows:

Negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, two Ukrainian officials tell Axios. They described the five-hour meeting as “difficult” and “intense,” but productive.

AFP/Getty Images

Rubio said in the immediate aftermath of the meeting, “We had another very productive session, building off Geneva, building off the events of this week. As I told you earlier this morning, our goal here is to end the war, but it’s more than just to end the war. We don’t just want to end the war. We also want to help Ukraine be safe forever, so never again will they face another invasion.”

This presumably is a reference to security guarantees, which were outlined in the Trump-proposed plan and likened to Article 5-like protections, something which Moscow is likely to reject if it does actually invite the possibility of future NATO military intervention. 

Rubio is still only emphasizing laying the “groundwork” at this late stage. “And so this is comprehensive, what we’re working on here today. It’s not just about the terms that end fighting. It’s about also the terms that set up Ukraine for long-term prosperity. I thought we started laying the groundwork for that, most certainly in Geneva,” he described.

As for the degree to which the Zelensky government is actually on board, Rubio acknowledged, “I think there is a shared vision here that this is not just about ending the war, which is very important. It is about securing Ukraine’s future, a future that we hope will be more prosperous than it’s ever been.”

Amid the typical vagueness present in such post-meeting comments, Rubio did note that progress was made. “I think additional progress was made, and we continue to be realistic about how difficult this is, but optimistic, particularly given the fact that as we’ve made progress,” he said. But a key question remains the degree to which the Ukrainians finally expressed willingness to make territorial concessions in the Donbass and Crimea.

The Ukrainian delegation was led by Rustem Umerov, the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security Council, after Andriy Yermak, who was until Friday Zelensky’s top aide and chief negotiator, resigned – or rather was pressured out -following a police raid on his home by anti-corruption investigators. He has since dramatically announce that he has gone to the front lines. Some say he is hiding from investigators, which can’t reach him in a military zone.

Umerov began his post-meeting remarks, “Once again, we are grateful to American people, American leadership and great team with State Secretary Rubio, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner for their tremendous work with us. Our objective is prosperous, strong Ukraine. We were discussing about the future of Ukraine.”

He continued, without tipping his cards, “We worked. We already had a successful meeting in Geneva, and today, we continue this success. So at the moment, this meeting was productive and successful.”

So territorial concessions and security guarantees remain the central sticking points, with many analysts saying now that Umerov is running point, and with Yermak pushed aside, President Trump’s vision for bringing an end to the war could be more easily accomplished.

At this moment, US officials say Witkoff is expected to submit updated documents in his upcoming meeting with President Putin that incorporate the latest talks and revisions that were made with Kiev and European leaders.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Looks like the meeting between the US and the Ukraine didn’t go too well.

According to sources, the US wants Ukraine to hold elections as soon as possible and enforces it has to give up territories.

Witkoff will now be heading to Moscow to meet President Putin. pic.twitter.com/naITjcZke6

— Spetsnaℤ 007 🇷🇺 (@Alex_Oloyede2) November 30, 2025

Still, the Ukrainian side didn’t look happy based on the few photographs of the meeting’s start which emerged. The Trump administration is definitely in the driver’s seat, and Europe is not even at the table. This is likely become they know the clock is ticking on the battlefield, where as Moon of Alabama has noted, “The Ukrainian army is collapsing. Pokrovsk had been enveloped and occupied a week ago. But Zelenski and others kept claimed that the Ukrainian was winning that battle.” The geopolitical analysis source continues:

As the army breaks down and its soldiers flee from their positions (in Russian) other cities, like Huleipole and Siversk, will soon fall too.

There is no way for Ukraine to win the war. The longer the war takes the more will be lost for Ukraine.

The utter delusion behind the rejection of Trump’s 28 point plan was demonstrated by the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Katja Kallas: “We still need to get from a situation where Russia pretends to negotiate to a situation where they need to negotiate.”

Moon of Alabama quips rhetorically: “Sure. And how are going to get there? After 19 rounds of EU sanction on Russia the 20th package will certainly take care of it?”

Below are more of the latest Monday morning headlines and developments via Newsquawk…

* * *

Russia’s Kremlin said that Russian President Putin is due to meet US envoy Witkoff on Tuesday. On the Russia-Ukraine peace development, the Kremlin adds that they are not going to engage in megaphone diplomacy.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said a delegation headed by the security council chief travelled to the US for talks, while it was also reported that Zelensky is to visit French President Macron in Paris on Monday.
US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
US Secretary of State Rubio said the meeting with Ukrainians was very productive but noted there is more work to be done, while he added that they have been in touch to varying degrees with the Russian side.
Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister said there was a good start to US peace talks with a warm atmosphere conducive to a potential progressive outcome.
Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery, while it was also reported that Ukrainian sea drones struck two Gambia-flagged tankers off the Turkish coast on Friday, which were said to be part of a Russian shadow fleet used to bypass Western sanctions.
Russian forces carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities.
Russia’s Foreign Minister said following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea terminal, that the civilian energy infrastructure that was attacked plays an important role in ensuring global energy security and has never been subject to any restrictions or limitations, while they strongly condemned the ‘terrorist attacks’ on CPC and oil tankers.
NATO is considering being “more aggressive” in responding to Russia’s cyber-attacks, sabotage and airspace violations, according to its most senior military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, cited by FT.
NATO is reportedly preparing for the scenario of confronting Russia with limited US support, according to a report by Bloomberg citing a wargame in Transylvania that showed European soldiers defending the continent largely without US support as President Trump reduces US deployments in Europe.

Little public optimism for a quick peace by close of this year:

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A gaggle of fake news reporters gathered around President Tump aboard Airforce One Sunday as he traveled back to Washington D.C. after the Thanksgiving weekend, and he let them all know exactly what he thought of them.

Trump dropped several truth bombs as the panicked reporters attempted gotcha questions regarding his third world migration moratorium.

When asked how long he intends to pause migration from countries including Afghanistan and Somalia, Trump shot back, “A long time. We don’t want those people, we have enough problems…You know why we don’t want them? Because many of them are no good and they should NOT be in our country.”

? PRESIDENT TRUMP ON 3RD WORLD MIGRANTS: “We have ENOUGH problems!”

“You know why we don’t want them? Because many of them are NO GOOD and they should NOT be in our country.”

TRUTH ? pic.twitter.com/iFHb4yUXor

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

Trump highlighted people from “Countries like Somalia, that have virtually no government, no military — all they do is go around killing each other, then they come into our country and tell us how to run our country. We don’t want them.”

Referring to Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar, Trump blasted “She supposedly came into our country by marrying her brother. Well, if that’s true, she shouldn’t be a congresswoman, and we should throw her the HELL out of the country!”

? BREAKING: President Trump just showed he is DONE with the Somalian BS ??

“Countries like Somalia, that have virtually no government, no military — all they do is go around killing each other, then they come into our country and tell us how to run our country. WE DON’T WANT… pic.twitter.com/wlEbUp6KMs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

Trump clarified that he will strip naturalisation from those who break the oath to America.

“If we have criminals that came into our country, and they were naturalized maybe through Biden or somebody that didn’t know what they were doing, if I have the power to do it… I would denaturalise, absolutely!” he stated.

When asked “What do you mean [by] ‘remigration?’” the President responded, “It means – get people OUT that are in our country. Get ’em out of here! I want to get them out! We got a lot of people who shouldn’t be here.”

? MASSIVE: President Trump stuns reporters by confirming REMIGRATION is about to get underway

“If we have criminals that came into our country, and they were naturalized maybe through Biden or somebody that didn’t know what they were doing, if I have the power to do it… I… pic.twitter.com/pEkdPmyv5K

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

When the gaggle attempted to get Trump to turn on Secretary of War Pete Hegseth over the narco boat strikes, he was having none of it.

? BREAKING: The Fake News just FAILED to get President Trump to turn on SecWar Pete Hegseth

“I have GREAT confidence [in Pete].”

They want to put Hegseth on trial for “war crimes.”

NEVER gonna happen! Hegseth is protecting the homeland ??pic.twitter.com/oo6Pjg4FHx

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

He also stated that he has a replacement in mind for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, but was not going to tell the fake news.

? BREAKING: President Trump just decided on JEROME POWELL’S replacement as Federal Reserve Chair

“I know who I’m gonna pick!”

REPORTER: “Kevin Hassett?!”

TRUMP: “?I’m not telling you. We’ll be announcing it!”

Too Late is on his way out, FINALLY. We need more interest rate… pic.twitter.com/wmfA1vI7du

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

When asked if he stands by calling Tim Walz “retarded,” in his Thanksgiving message,Trump responded, “Yeah! I think there’s something wrong with him. Absolutely. Sure. You have a problem with it?”

“Anybody that would do what he did – allow those [Somalians] into his state, and pay billions out to Somalia…it’s not even a country, it doesn’t function like a country! There’s something wrong with Walz!” Trump added.

? JUST IN – REPORTER: “Do you stand by calling Tim Walz ‘retarded?'”

PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Yeah! I think there’s something wrong with him. Absolutely. Sure. You have a problem with it?” ?

“Anybody that would do what he did – allow those [Somalians] into his state, and pay… pic.twitter.com/AbcKPJqOtO

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

Trump ended the exchange by bodying the two lead Karens at the head of the gaggle, who were pestering him for details of an MRI he recently had.

“It wasn’t on the brain, ’cause I took a cognitive test and aced it! Which you would be incapable of doing,” he told one of the women before turning to the other and bellowing “YOU TOO!”

?LMFAO! President Trump concluded his press avail aboard Air Force One by BODYING every reporter in the room!

REPORTERS: *Pressing him on his MRI*

TRUMP: “It wasn’t on the brain, ’cause I took a cognitive test and ACED it! Which YOU would be incapable of doing. YOU TOO!” ?? pic.twitter.com/Tk7rur2LRg

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

You can clearly see that Trump absolutely loves intellectually demolishing these fake media wage monkeys.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

After an ugly November (the worst since 2018), December is continuing that trend with a big drop overnight that shook what had appeared to be a stabilizing market.

Hawkish BoJ

The overnight plunge appeared to be triggered by Japanese government bond (JGB) futures tumbling on expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise borrowing costs at its December meeting.

Japan’s 2-year government bond yield briefly touched 1.01 percent, the highest since 2008, as traders bet the Bank of Japan’s long era of near-zero rates is ending. 

Some 90 minutes later, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a speech that his board might increase interest rates soon.

Traders raised the odds of a BOJ rate hike in December to about 80% after Ueda told business leaders that the central bank “will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate.”

Any hike would be an adjustment in the degree of easing, with the real interest rate still at a very low level, he said.

As Bloomberg reports, the reaction underscored how crypto investors must now reckon with macro forces far beyond the Fed which is widely expected to ease monetary policy at next week’s meeting.

“In the early days, Bitcoin mostly moved to whatever the Fed was signaling, rate cuts, hikes, or balance sheet shifts,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets.

“These days, Bitcoin reacts to the whole central-bank landscape, not just one player.”

The reaction was swift and violent as the the threat to the ‘yen carry trade’ tanked risk assets broadly, but most of all bitcoin as the largest cryptocurrency plunged from around $92,000 to $84,000 before a small rebound back above $86,000.

“It’s a risk off start to December,” said Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX.

“The biggest concern is the meagre inflows into Bitcoin exchange traded funds and absence of dip buyers. We expect the structural headwinds to continue this month. We are watching $80,000 on Bitcoin as the next key support level.”  

Over 180,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations at $539 million and the majority of that in the past few hours, reported CoinGlass. Almost 90% of those liquidations were long positions, predominantly in BTC and Ether 

Ethereum also tanked, back below $3,000…

Strategy selling?

Things worsened this morning as Bloomberg reports that concerns are rising that Strategy Inc. soon may be forced to sell some of its roughly $56 billion cryptocurrency haul if token prices continue to fall, leading its shares to wobble in pre-market trading.

Strategy’s mNAV — a key valuation metric comparing the firm’s enterprise value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings — sat at about 1.2 on Monday, according to its website, spurring investor fears it may soon turn negative.

“We can sell Bitcoin and we would sell Bitcoin if we needed to fund our dividend payments below 1x mNAV,” Phong Le, Strategy’s chief executive officer, said on a podcast on Friday, noting that it would only be carried out as a last resort.

“There’s the mathematical side of me that says that would be absolutely the right thing to do, and there’s the emotional side of me, the market side of me, that says we don’t really want to be the company that’s selling Bitcoin,” Le added.

“Generally speaking, for me, the mathematical side wins.”

MSTR is trading down 5% in the pre-market

However, after a week of not adding to its Bitcoin hoard, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor appeared to hint in a Sunday post on X that it might soon make further purchases.

What if we start adding green dots? pic.twitter.com/a19bD33KzD

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 30, 2025

China notices ‘speculation’, issues re-ban

Finally, we note that China’s central bank has flagged stablecoins as a risk and has promised to refresh its crackdown on crypto trading, which it has banned since 2021.

The People’s Bank of China said on Saturday, after a meeting with 12 other agencies, that “virtual currency speculation has resurfaced” due to various factors, posing new challenges for risk control.

“Virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies, lack legal tender status, and should not and cannot be used as currency in the market,” the bank said, according to a translation of its statement.

“Virtual currency-related business activities constitute illegal financial activities.”

China’s central bank banned crypto trading and mining in 2021, citing a need to curb crime and claiming that crypto posed a risk to the financial system.

So a triple-whammy for an already sensitive crypto market overnight – is this the weak hand flush needed for the Santa Claus rally to start?