The Federal Aviation Administration has given the green light for the U.S. military to deploy high-energy counter-drone laser weapons in U.S. airspace, adding a new, low-cost layer of protection against the rising threat from kamikaze drones. The decision follows a two-month interagency standoff over whether the systems posed a risk to general aviation and commercial aircraft, as well as incidents in Texas earlier this year that briefly led to an airspace closure.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford was quoted by The New York Times as saying the new laser weapon systems had completed a safety assessment that “determined that these systems do not present an increased risk to the flying public.”

The decision paves the way for broader use of these 20- to 35+-kilowatt-class laser weapon systems along the southern border to combat drug cartel drones and one-way attack drones. These threats have caused alarm at the highest levels in Washington, especially following the use of drones by Iran in the Gulf area to target data centers, civilian infrastructure, and U.S. military bases.

The NYTimes provided more color on the FAA’s decision: 

The statement did not address whether the agency had determined that the high-energy lasers posed no physical risk to aircraft, or whether the safety determination was based on how the lasers were being deployed. But the F.A.A. determined that the risk would be minimal even if the laser came into contact with an airplane, according to an agency official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

The controversy surrounding these laser weapons stems from the February 10 incident when the FAA briefly closed airspace over El Paso after Border Patrol fired the weapon at an object that turned out to be a metallic balloon. With the interagency standoff over, the U.S. military has considered deploying these lasers in Washington, D.C., to combat low-cost, one-way attack drones.

The core vulnerability across U.S. airspace is that a cheap, layered counter-drone system still does not exist, nor is one widely deployed around critical civilian infrastructure such as data centers, power plants, transmission substations, and other critical nodes across the modern economy, where even limited disruption could trigger localized or regional turmoil. The race to close that gap with low-cost systems is underway. We laid out this threat assessment one month before the US-Iran conflict. Now it’s time for solutions.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Without a doubt, trading at the start of the week will hinge on developments in the ongoing ceasefire negotiations.

As Spider, Bret, and I discussed on Friday’s podcast the range of possible outcomes has not narrowed significantly. Anything from a serious deal, to walking away and restarting the attacks seems plausible. Spider “guffawed” at the comparison of Regime Change to Welcome Back Kotter – well, the names have all changed…

You know we live in a weird world, where in less than a week, the President posting on Truth Social that a “civilization will die tonight” barely registers as something to talk about.

Academy will continue to stay in front of you this weekend and next week as the situation develops, but the podcast (and much of our writing from this week) remains relevant until we get a clear direction on the talks. So far it has been compared to two sides repeating their list of demands to each other, but at least they are communicating.

More Than an Easter Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine?

With all the attention focused on Iran, there are stories circulating that Russia and Ukraine could be heading towards something more lasting (while at the same time, there are concerns that even the limited Easter ceasefire won’t hold). Easter (for those following the Julian calendar) is this weekend, while for those following the Gregorian calendar, it was last weekend.

Why could this war finally be headed towards a deal?

Ukraine.

Depending on the U.S. for big support has already seemed like a weak strategy. With the U.S. un-sanctioning Russian oil, it seems even more dangerous to tie your hopes to U.S. aid (also, the U.S. has been using up missiles in the fight in Iran, so will be less likely to want to ship military equipment elsewhere, until our stockpiles are replenished).

Relying on Europe has always been difficult at best. The EU has not been prepared for war, and the framework of the EU makes it difficult to do anything major, quickly. For me, when Brussels vetoed the taking of Russia’s frozen reserves, I largely gave up on the EU.

Russia. Given the two previous paragraphs, it would seem that Russia should be foaming at the mouth to increase attacks and not even be thinking about peace. But…

From a “carrot” perspective, this might be the easiest time for Russia to “ease back” into the global economy. With sanctions already lifted, it might make sense to do a deal now and have those sanctions permanently lifted (politicians have an easier time maintaining the status quo, than changing it).

Ukraine has a factory in the UK. Ukraine is working with some countries in the Gulf. We have already seen what asymmetric warfare can do against even the biggest, best, most well-prepared military in the world – and that is not what the Russian military is. If you are Russia, you may have to worry that Ukraine is getting better at drones. Also, while Russia and Ukraine largely kept away from infrastructure targets, those seem more likely to be on the table as attacks (and threats of attacks) on those targets moved the needle 

It would be a pleasant surprise to see some progress on this front. While it still seems unlikely, maybe we have finally reached the point where conditions on both sides warrant some sort of a deal.

On Any Other Weekend This Would Be the Main Focus

Stocks averages did so well this week that weakness in an important sector has been largely ignored.

This ETF is comprised of some of the biggest, best “software” brands in the world. Yet, while everything else was rallying this week, this ETF had its lowest close since 2023. The recent selling, at least in part, coincided with a new AI model, which also triggered an “emergency” banking meeting in D.C.

What was interesting, and in direct contrast to the Barron’s article linked above, is that the CIBR (a cybersecurity-focused ETF) also did poorly (ending the week barely above its post Liberation Day lows).

SOXX, a semiconductor ETF, had a great week.

I continue to believe that as we near an end to the conflict in Iran, ProSec will once again take center stage, with domestic energy, electricity, and chip manufacturing as the focus.

Having said that, the carnage in software seems like it should have broader implications for the market. Maybe it will once we have fewer “headlines” about the Middle East.

CONsumer CONfidence

If the CON CON didn’t give it away (again), I am not a big fan of this data series. But two things struck me as interesting.

Inflation expectations for 5 to 10 years out remained “anchored” coming in at 3.4%. Up a bit from recent prints of 3.2%, and well above the Fed’s target, but well below readings throughout most of 2025. If the Fed was willing to cut rates with much higher long-run expectations (and they did), then this should help rate cut probabilities inch higher. It isn’t great data, but could have been worse, which is all that a Fed run by Warsh is likely to need.

On the flip side, while I’m not a huge fan of the number, “all-time” records deserve at least some attention

The deterioration has been dramatic and cannot be “just” linked to Iran. Does that mean affordability (and the “working poor”) thesis is about to get some attention again?

The caveat to this is that CONsumer CONfidence is very “political.” Not sure why it is that political, but it is – just look at the chart, and how confidence switched after the election. Long before the President was even sworn into office, the sentiment of Republicans and Democrats did a 180 (the same thing happened, but in reverse, when Biden beat Trump).

I will ignore the Democrats for now, and focus on Republicans and Independents. Both were slightly better than their lowest levels since the election. That mitigates some of the sting of the headline number but it is something to keep a close eye on.

I do hate that I dedicated so much space to a data series that I don’t put a lot of faith in, but this was too big to ignore.

Bottom Line

Sunday night and Monday morning will be heavily dependent on the messaging out of Pakistan (I did a double take as I wrote that, but it seems to be the case).

There is nothing bigger for the global economy than how this conflict is resolved or proceeds. Given the trading over the last two days (where every “negative” headline was met with minimal selling, and every “positive” headline was met with robust buying) a lot of good news is priced in. We will still rally on positive outcomes, but some form of a “deal” seems to be increasingly priced into markets.

Let’s hope that markets are right and we are near the end.

Then for better or worse, we can return to our “normal” programming and figure out what to make of the AI story, the software story, the K-shaped (or working poor) story, the affordability problem (which will be alleviated with a good outcome in the Middle East, but not solved), the jobs story, etc.

The U.S. Navy has finally thrown in the towel on the Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Boise (SSN-764). After more than eleven years pierside and roughly $800 million poured into a repair effort that never really started, the service announced that the 34-year-old boat will be inactivated rather than returned to the fleet.

The decision comes as the Navy shifts focus to Virginia- and Columbia-class construction, yet one has to wonder why those same priorities could not have been acted on years earlier while Boise gathered dust and the rest of the submarine force picked up the slack.

Boise last deployed in January 2015. Its regular overhaul was supposed to begin in fiscal year 2016 at Norfolk Naval Shipyard. Instead, the boat sat idle, lost its dive certification in 2017, and was towed back and forth between public and private yards. A $1.2 billion contract finally went to Huntington Ingalls Industries Newport News in 2024, but costs had already climbed and the work barely progressed. 

The submarine has spent the better part of a decade contributing nothing to deterrence or operations while other attack boats endured extended deployments and accelerated redeployments to cover the shortfall.

Roughly one-third of the Navy’s nuclear attack submarines have routinely sat in maintenance or idle status in recent years, well above the service’s own 20% target, forcing the available boats into higher operational tempo and longer patrols. The backlog creates a vicious cycle with fewer submarines at sea. This means more wear on those still deployed, which in turn means more maintenance down the road.

The episode also underscores just how far American shipyards have fallen. Contrast today’s performance with the Pearl Harbor Navy Yard immediately after the December 7, 1941, attack. With the yard working around the clock with Navy crews, civilians, and divers logging more than 20,000 hours underwater, battleships like Nevada, California, and West Virginia were refloated and patched in a matter of weeks.

The carrier Yorktown, battered at Coral Sea and estimated to need three months of repairs, received emergency work in roughly seventy-two hours and sailed in time to help win the Battle of Midway. The industrial base then could absorb catastrophic damage and surge back into the fight. Today, the US can’t overhaul one submarine in more than a decade without the price tag exploding and the project collapsing.

From our previous coverage on the topic, we have to wonder if this decision to inactivate the Boise has anything to do with the $448 million Palantir contract for utilizing their AI to improve submarine maintenance and construction. The Navy partnered with Palantir to tackle precisely these bottlenecks in new construction and maintenance.

The Navy now insists the Boise decision frees skilled labor and dollars for higher priorities. Yet after eleven years of inaction, millions spent, and a force stretched thin, the move feels less like strategic wisdom and more like an admission that the system has been broken for far too long.

The rare Russia-Ukraine Orthodox Easter truce is already bearing much positive fruit, as both sides have on Saturday confirmed a massive POW swap involving 350 captives.

In a press release, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that “175 Russian service members were returned from territory controlled by the Kiev regime, while in exchange, 175 Ukrainian Armed Forces prisoners of war were handed over.”

via Associated Press

Additionally, the ministry announced that seven civilians from Kursk Region – who are believed to be the last hostages still held from a major Ukrainian army border incursion last year – were set free and will soon return home as part of the exchange.

The Russian servicemen are currently in neighboring Belarus undergoing medical evaluation ahead of making the final journey home to be reunited with their families.

On Friday, just the day prior, the two warring sides announced an Easter truce. The truce extends 32-hours for the whole holiday weekend.

Based on regional media reporting of the rare ceasefire, the pause in fighting has been holding and will run until midnight on Sunday.

This will cover the whole period of Orthodox Pascha (Easter) celebrations in both countries, which is done according to the Julian calendar and thus typically comes a weekend or two later that Western Easter (on the Gregorian calendar). The overwhelming majorities of both countries are adherents of the Eastern Orthodox Church.

Typically in orthodox churches there is a long Saturday morning service, and then the main liturgy comes at midnight – going into the early Sunday morning hours, followed by feasting and breaking the Lenten fast (after 40 days of no meat, dairy, or animal products).

And then late Sunday morning or early afternoon there is another service, after which there is more celebratory feasting. Churches across Russia and Ukraine are packed this weekend.

Russian media reports that Defense Minister Andrei Belousov has instructed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to halt Russian military operations during the period; however, just like in past short truces Russia says it will respond immediately to any ‘violations’ observed.

If the whole ceasefire proves successful, it could provide the basis for something more lasting, as both sides say they are still interested in hammering out a permanent end to the war. But for Moscow, this will require that Ukraine cede much of the east and give political recognition too, including over Crimea.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

I’ve been saying this for months: despite “experts” just sounding the alarm moments ago: the private credit unwind that started months ago and has now spiraled into a very real liability for the economy wasn’t some unknowable tail risk lurking in the shadows.

It couldn’t have been clearer if it was a fucking neon sign blinking THIS ENDS BADLY hanging outside of the 4 train station on Wall Street so industry workers were forced to see it on their way into work every morning.

Not only did I call the private credit collapse, I also argued that it would experience a sharp downturn before the Fed stepped in to bail it out or provide a backstop, despite, once again, the widespread misconduct of mismarking positions and carrying opaque, low-quality assets on the books of the companies managing these funds.

And here we are, right on schedule, watching that script unfold with all the subtlety of Eric Swalwell on a date after 9 whiskey cocktails.

In the last two days alone, Bloomberg reports that the Federal Reserve has gone from politely observing to actively interrogating. Not in a press-release, “we’re monitoring conditions” sort of way, but boots-on-the-ground examiners asking major banks to cough up details about their exposure to private credit.

Translation: they’re not trying to understand the industry, they’re trying to figure out how bad the damage could get and who’s going to be holding the bag when it does.

And what are they likely finding? Exactly what anyone paying attention already knew. Private credit funds didn’t just lend money, they borrowed it, too. Because in good times, leverage makes returns look smooth and irresistible. It turns middling loans into “high-yield opportunities.” It creates the illusion of stability. But in bad times? That same leverage becomes a transmission mechanism, turning localized stress into systemic risk. It’s not a bug, it’s the design.

Meanwhile, the Treasury is now poking around insurers, because of course this nuclear dogshit being peddled as a financial opportunity didn’t stay neatly contained in some alternative-assets sandbox. It likely spread. Into insurance portfolios, retirement products, retail funds…basically anywhere someone was desperate enough for yield to believe the pitch. The industry ballooned to roughly $1.8 trillion (and depending on how you count it, more), all built on the comforting fiction that because it wasn’t traditional banking, it somehow wasn’t subject to traditional banking problems.

Just like we’re seeing with “magically” successful subprime lenders like Carvana, of course they’re still subject to reality. The better question is how they can avoid the assumption they have to face reality at some point. I think we know how Carvana has been doing it: f*cking with the numbers. And private credit is doing the same. Just with worse transparency.

And now suddenly regulators are “assessing spillover risk,” which is the bureaucratic equivalent of checking where the fire exits are while the building is already filling with smoke.

Let’s not pretend we don’t know where this goes. When the Fed starts mapping exposures like this, it’s not because they’re writing a research paper. It’s because they’re quietly preparing the intervention. Maybe it’s a backstop. Maybe it’s liquidity support. Maybe it’s some creatively named facility that sounds temporary but lingers for years (something like the “Assessment of Systemic Stress by Head Office Liquidity & Economic Support” plan, or A.S.S.H.O.L.E.S. for short).

Whatever form it takes, the direction is obvious: if this thing threatens the broader system, it will be contained and we will print our way out of it. Which is to say, the everyday worker, already suffering from inflation and unable to buy a box of Triscuits or a Domino’s Pizza, will now be responsible for bailing out private credit with their purchasing power.

And right on cue—this is where the story stops being predictable and starts being grotesque. Because while regulators are measuring the crater, Wall Street is building a gift shop next to it.

The Wall Street Journal wrote yesterday that banks like JPMorgan Chase, working with S&P Global, are rolling out a brand-new shiny instrument: a credit-default swap index tied to private credit exposure. A clean, tradable, scalable way to bet against the very ecosystem they spent the last decade inflating. They’re packaging up the risk, labeling it, and selling access to its failure.

You really have to admire the efficiency, right?

The index pulls in names like Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, and Blackstone, the giants of the space, the architects and beneficiaries of the private credit boom. As sentiment turns and defaults rise, the index goes up. In other words, the worse things get for the underlying system, the better things get for anyone positioned against it.

If this is giving you déjà vu, congratulations, you were alive in 2008.

Back then, the game was subprime mortgages. Banks originated garbage, distributed it widely, then quietly built instruments to short it when the cracks appeared. Today, it’s private credit wearing a slightly more sophisticated suit, but the choreography is identical. Manufacture the asset. Scale it. Normalize it. Then monetize its collapse from every conceivable angle.

And of course, the official justification is “risk management.” Banks say they need these tools to hedge exposure, to protect themselves from potential losses tied to private credit funds. Which, sure, fine. But let’s not insult anyone’s intelligence. This isn’t just about hedging. This is about creating a liquid, standardized market for betting on distress. It’s about turning systemic fragility into a profit center.

Hedge funds are already circling, because until now, shorting private credit was messy. You had to pick off individual securities, make indirect bets, deal with illiquidity. It was cumbersome. Inefficient. Now? They get a big, convenient index…a one-click way to express the view that the whole structure is wobbling.

So step back and look at the full picture, because it’s almost too on-the-nose to be real.

Wall Street spends years constructing a massive, opaque, leveraged lending machine and sells it as safe, stable income. It pulls in institutions, then pensions, then retail investors. always expanding the circle of exposure. Stress builds quietly, then not-so-quietly. Defaults tick up. Liquidity tightens. Investors panic. Douchebags in bowties warn about it after it is too late.

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Regulators step in…not to dismantle the system that created the risk, but to understand how big the rescue might need to be. And at the exact same moment, the financial industry engineers new ways to bet against the collapse it set in motion.

This is moral hazard elevated to an art form. The downside is cushioned, implicitly or explicitly, by the expectation of intervention. The upside is captured privately, twice: once on the way up through fees and leverage, and again on the way down through shorts and derivatives. It’s not just asymmetric anymore, it’s circular. A closed loop of profit extracted from creation, expansion, and destruction alike.

And the most absurd part is how little effort is made to hide it. The Fed’s questions aren’t secret. The new derivatives aren’t backroom deals. This is all happening out in the open, narrated in real time by headlines that read like satire but aren’t.

And don’t be fooled. None of this bullshit is innovation. Not resilience. Not sophisticated risk transfer, or any other fancy sounding term they give it.

Nah. It’s just a deeply, structurally, almost impressively sick and psychotic ecosystem, where the same people who built the toxic dump of deals are now lining up to profit from its collapse, all while the adults in the room quietly prepare to make sure the fallout doesn’t inconvenience them too much.

And the everyman, honest hardworking plumber or mailman who can’t afford a box of cereal or a cup of coffee anymore because his purchasing power has been decimated by the same money printing that’ll inevitably be coming? Oh, well, fuck that guy. He has had his boot on the neck of Wall Street for just too damn long.

—

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Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

John Cleese has fired off a fresh round of unfiltered truth bombs, exposing the cultural erosion underway in the UK as mass immigration and Islamist influence accelerate.

The Monty Python star is zeroing in on the BBC’s latest woke assault and the realities of Islamist culture that open borders have imported.

Responding to a BBC claim that the UK education system “wasn’t built for black children” and was instead designed for “whiteness,” Cleese cut through the nonsense with characteristic clarity:

It was built for British children, because it was in Britain

At that time most British children were white

To claim that was some kind of racist conspiracy is insane

The BBC has a hidden agenda which is against the
beliefs of the majority of British people https://t.co/NFabZBHvHx

— John Cleese (@JohnCleese) April 11, 2026

Cleese hit back: “It was built for British children, because it was in Britain. At that time most British children were white. To claim that was some kind of racist conspiracy is insane.”

He added, “The BBC has a hidden agenda which is against the beliefs of the majority of British people.”

No pandering to identity politics. Just facts about a nation educating its own people—before decades of mass immigration turned basic institutions into battlegrounds for grievance narratives.

Cleese’s comments come fresh off demanding a new election over the epidemic of crimes against churches—more than 10 every single day—continues his stand against the forces dismantling British identity.

Cleese slammed Prime Minister Keir Starmer for becoming “so dependent on Muslim votes that he now does not even pretend to be evenhanded,” highlighting how unchecked migration has left historic Christian sites vulnerable while authorities prioritize other communities.

Cleese didn’t stop there in his latest tirade. He highlighted a video of an Islamic figure blaming victims for failing to control the emotions of the faithful, posting “This sage is proposing that as his followers are incapable of controlling their emotions, their victims should be the ones blamed and punished.”

This sage is proposing that as his followers are incapable of controlling their emotions, their victims should be the ones blamed and punished

Much of Islamic teaching consists of the glorification of the male ego, and the encouragement of its worst
manifestations https://t.co/fplFQhtSZX

— John Cleese (@JohnCleese) April 11, 2026

“Much of Islamic teaching consists of the glorification of the male ego, and the encouragement of its worst manifestations,” he continued.

This comes as Britain grapples with grooming scandals, parallel societies, and demands that native women and girls alter their behavior to accommodate imported cultural norms—while authorities look the other way.

Yes https://t.co/9vqQjSA9cU

— John Cleese (@JohnCleese) April 11, 2026

No hedging. No virtue-signaling. Just acknowledgment that importing millions who reject British values creates the exact fractures politicians now pretend to solve with more surveillance and speech codes.

Cleese also dismantled London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s warning about a “dark blizzard of disinformation” online. ():

If you have a culture whose holy book forbids compromise, you will have division

It’s inevitable.

So divisiveness should not be blamed on media companies

It’s the result of the REALITY created by the refusal to compromise

Ooh ! I Thet’s the door bell. Speech police, I suppose https://t.co/Kc9rZdJ90y

— John Cleese (@JohnCleese) April 11, 2026

The sarcasm lands because the pattern is unmistakable: mass Islamic immigration brings incompatible ideologies that refuse integration, then critics of the resulting chaos are labeled the problem. Khan and the establishment deflect blame onto social media while churches burn and British streets fill with calls for Sharia.

Britain’s historic identity—rooted in Christian values, free speech, and majority rule—is under sustained pressure from open borders policies and the cultural Marxism that cheers it on.

The BBC, Khan, and the Labour government aren’t protecting Britain. They’re managing its transformation, all while criminalizing dissent. The likes of Cleese, who has commented on British society for decades, see where this is heading and are refusing to play along, reminding the public that reality doesn’t bend to slogans about diversity or disinformation.

In an age of elite denial, his willingness to state the obvious stands out. Britain’s survival as a cohesive nation depends on rejecting the Islamist cultural takeover and the woke enablers who imported it—before the division Cleese warns of becomes irreversible. As he stresses, the ballot box, secure borders, and unapologetic defense of British heritage remain the only path back.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Summary

President Trump begins blockading Strait of Hormuz, warns US military will “finish up the little that is left of Iran”

2 Supertankers U-turn after peace deal talks fail

UAE Oil Chief warns Iran blocking Hormuz is “a direct threat to the energy, food and health security of every nation”

The odds of a peace deal by the end of the ceasefire period has collapsed…

President Trump Begins Blockading Strait Of Hormuz

President Trump said the US would blockade the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of peace talks with Iran in Islamabad this weekend.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in a social media post.

Trump noted that talks went well… until they didn’t…

“So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not.“

The US president is hopeful…

At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them.

But then came the threats, with Trump apparently widening his purview to international waters:

THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted.

I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran.

No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.

We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits.

Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!

And the art of the deal… Escalate to De-Escalate… how long can Iran last with no oil revenues at all?

Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country.

Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition.

The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.

They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear.

Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!

Iran’s semi-official media cited “excessive” US demands, while the foreign ministry said it was natural that differences wouldn’t be resolved in a single round of talks, leaving the door open for more discussions.

A month ago we wondered…

If Iran is blocking and attacking US ships, why is the US allowing sanctioned Iranian tankers to cross the strait with Chinese oil?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 12, 2026

…and now we have an answer. 

The question is – how will the UAE oil chief deal with a US closure versus an Iranian closure?

China will certainly be pissed off as their tankers were flowing relatively freely until now.

Is the US endgame to take control of another chokepoint too…

2 Supertankers U-Turn In Strait After Peace Talks End Without A Deal

The marathon peace talks this weekend in Islamabad between Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Vice President JD Vance, and other officials ended without a deal. Still, the top Iranian negotiator signaled that the door remains open for future talks. Polymarket odds of a peace deal being signed this month collapsed late Saturday.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Yes 16% · No 85%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Ahead of the weekend peace talks, three fully loaded supertankers carrying Iraqi and Saudi crude safely transited the Strait of Hormuz. But after U.S.-Iran negotiations ended without a deal late Saturday, two separate empty supertankers abruptly turned around at the mouth of the chokepoint rather than enter the Persian Gulf.

The exact reason for the U-turns of the two supertankers remains unclear, especially since Iraq and Pakistan had reportedly received Iranian transit approvals. However, the reversals clearly coincide with the breakdown in negotiations, highlighting just how quickly conditions on the strait can change.

UAE Oil Chief Warns “Illegal, Dangerous, & Unacceptable” For Iran To Close Strait

On Sunday morning, as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained muted, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC’s managing director and group CEO and one of the most influential people in global energy markets, wrote on X: “The Strait of Hormuz has never been Iran’s to close or restrict.”

Al Jaber continued, “Any attempt to do so is not a regional issue; it is the disruption of a global economic lifeline and a direct threat to the energy, food and health security of every nation.”

“Setting such a precedent is illegal, dangerous, and unacceptable. The world simply cannot afford it and must not allow it,” he concluded in the X post.

Since February 28:

* At least 22 ships have been attacked
* 10 crew members have been killed
* Around 20,000 seafarers are unable to transit safely
* An estimated 800 commercial vessels are stranded, including almost 400 tankers

The Strait of Hormuz has never been Iran’s to…

— Dr. Sultan Al Jaber (@SultanAlJaber) April 12, 2026

On Saturday, the U.S. Department of War confirmed that two U.S. warships transited the waterway to begin marine mine-clearing operations. Only a handful of ships have transited the strait this weekend.

Polymarket odds for vessel traffic returning to “normal” by the end of April plunged this weekend from 30% to 17%.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 17% · No 83%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

US Becomes World’s ‘Gas Station Of Last Resort’

Disruptions at Gulf energy facilities and the continued paralysis across the Hormuz chokepoint led us early in the U.S.-Iran conflict to conclude that global energy flows were being rewired, whether temporarily or over the medium term, with energy exporters in the Gulf of America emerging as a potential net beneficiary.

In fact, the latest vessel-tracking data transmitted via the Automatic Identification System, supplied by Bloomberg, show that it is quite possible that America has become the world’s emergency gas station.

What appears increasingly clear after this weekend’s Islamabad talks is that Tehran refused to surrender any leverage around the Hormuz chokepoint. That posture only suggests to us that Tehran understands the chokepoint remains one of the last leverage points. 

A key Saudi oil pipeline to the Red Sea was restored on Sunday and is now pumping at full capacity after an Iranian drone attack last week damaged a pumping station.

The East-West pipeline is back at full capacity, moving about 7 million barrels per day and restoring critical energy flows from Saudi’s Persian Gulf oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz.

Bloomberg quoted the Saudi energy ministry as saying that Saudi Aramco’s offshore Manifa field has been restored, while repairs continue at the Khurais onshore complex. Last week, attacks on Manifa and Khurais each knocked out about 300,000 bpd.

“This quick recovery reflects the high operational resilience and crisis management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the kingdom’s energy ecosystem as a whole, thereby enhancing the reliability and continuity of supplies to local and global markets,” the energy ministry said.

The Iranian attack on the pipeline last week came on the same day the U.S. and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire. By Sunday, after a marathon round of talks in Islamabad between Vice President JD Vance, U.S. negotiators, and Iranian negotiators, no peace deal was reached, but the door was left open for future diplomacy.

“We leave here with a very simple proposal: a method of understanding that is our final and best offer,” Vance told reporters earlier. “We’ll see if the Iranians accept it.”

On Saturday, the U.S. Department of War confirmed that two U.S. warships transited the Hormuz chokepoint to begin marine mine-clearing operations. Only a handful of ships have transited the critical waterway, as traffic remained muted late into the weekend.

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

India’s fast breeder reactor in Tamil Nadu achieved criticality earlier this month, making it self-sustaining and only the second commercial plant of its kind in the world.

The 500-megawatt plant advances India’s goal of reaching 100 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2047, up from roughly 9 gigawatts today.

While the milestone is significant, experts warn India’s ‘all of the above’ energy strategy may need to become more targeted as demand grows.

India has reached a milestone in its nuclear energy program through its state-of-the-art fast breeder reactor, signalling a major step forward for the clean energy transition in the world’s most populous country. The country’s most advanced nuclear reactor reached criticality earlier this month, meaning that the nuclear chain reaction powering the plant is self-sustaining. This breakthrough will ultimately allow India to import far less uranium to power its nuclear program, and can be adapted to use domestic thorium reserves for fuel in a win-win for the subcontinent’s energy security and autonomy. 

When the plant comes online fully, it will be only the second commercial breeder plant of its kind in the world. The other is in Russia. These plants could change the nuclear landscape completely, as they are capable of producing more fissile material (in essence, nuclear fuel) than they consume. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the achievement as “a proud moment for India” and “a defining step” in advancing India’s nuclear program.

“This advanced reactor, capable of producing more fuel than it consumes, reflects the depth of our scientific capability and the strength of our engineering enterprise. It is a decisive step towards harnessing our vast thorium reserves in the third stage of the programme,” Modi said in a post on X on Monday.

This achievement is a long time in the making. The plant, based in the Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, has been in development since 2000. It’s not yet clear when the plant will come online, but it is expected to generate 500 megawatts of carbon-free electricity. This will represent a major step toward India’s aim to achieve 100 gigawatts of capacity by 2047, a significant boost from today’s level of approximately 9 gigawatts.

At present, nuclear power accounts for just 2% of India’s energy mix, but the carbon-free form of energy production will be a critical part of India’s decarbonization strategy. India is currently between a rock and a hard place when it comes to balancing energy security and sustainability with the nation’s humans and economic development goals. 

Despite considerable economic development in recent decades, India remains one of the poorest countries in the world, and increasing energy access is a central platform of India’s continued climb out of poverty. “Tackling the energy access gap is a critical step in meeting the country’s economic and social development ambitions, and it has been a top priority for successive Indian governments,” says a Guardian report from September of last year. 

Meeting the energy needs of all 1.47 billion people in India without majorly derailing global climate goals will require enormous investments in a wide array of traditional and innovative energy alternatives. India is already the third-largest energy consumer in the world after the United States and China, and its needs will only continue to grow. Nuclear, and next-gen nuclear such as breeder reactors, will be just one component of a diverse energy portfolio. 

While the fast breeder reactor marks a major step forward for Indian energy innovation, it likely won’t provide a silver-bullet solution to the subcontinent’s energy challenges. Many other nations have pursued the development of such models, including the United States, China, France, and South Korea, but most have abandoned the pursuit in favor of other next-gen nuclear models that they see as more promising, such as small modular reactors. However, even if this form of reactor doesn’t become the new normal for India, it will still serve the country’s overall energy ambitions, which include a diverse energy playing field. But, going forward, a more streamlined approach may be necessary. 

“India’s energy transition goals have always been an ‘all of the above’ approach, to increase capacity from fossil and non-fossil sources as part of its broader economic growth aspirations – and in response to growing demand,” Ashwini Swain, an energy transition expert at the Delhi-based Sustainable Futures Collaborative, told The Guardian. “So far the approach has mostly been ad hoc and supply-centric rather than targeted to end users, because it comes from a scarcity mindset,” Swain went on to say. “This has worked out so far, but India has reached a stage where we need a much more strategic whole systems approach to energy transition.”

The Pakistan-based drone company Sysverve Aerospace can now be added to the rapidly expanding list of defense firms worldwide racing to develop, manufacture, stockpile, and potentially deploy low-cost, one-way attack drones on the modern battlefield. The proliferation of these drones across two major battlefields in Eurasia is set to permanently reshape warfare.

Pakistani-American artificial intelligence investor Amir Husain posted on X about an exhibit featuring Sysverve’s latest “Shahed-like loitering munition.”

When asked on X by one user where the exhibit was being featured, Husain stated it was at the World Defense Show, held in February in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Sysverve’s website describes the company as a leader of unmanned air target systems in Pakistan and states it also develops surveillance and combat UAVs. Its contact page lists the company in Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

Last week, we revealed that India has adopted the Iranian-style drone playbook, with startup HoverIt showcasing its DIVYASTRA MK2, an advanced long-range strike drone.

In the six-week U.S.-Iran conflict, Shahed drones launched by Iran proved extraordinarily effective, knocking out data centers in surrounding Gulf states and even successfully striking U.S. bases in the region.

The U.S. announced during the conflict that it had deployed its own Iranian-style kamikaze drones.

We recently published a fascinating piece titled “Ukraine Becomes World’s AI Weapons Laboratory,” which delves into Ukraine’s drone industry and offers more insight into interceptor technology.

On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces stationed in the Gulf had successfully used Ukrainian interceptor drones against Iranian Shahed drones.

The emergence of these low-cost drones on the modern battlefield began with the war between Ukraine and Russia over the past four years. There are even reports that Russia was preparing to send a massive drone shipment to Iran:

The UAE recently announced that it has developed a jet-powered, Shahed-style drone capable of speeds exceeding 650 mph.

Capability built for modern operations.

Combining jet-powered speed, advanced guidance, and precision targeting, SHADOW 25 supports forces with rapid, reliable, mission-ready performance when it matters most. pic.twitter.com/yaEessVgTZ

— EDGE (@_edgegroup) March 27, 2026

Let’s not forget that China is producing these drones at scale to the highest bidder:

China Produces “Baby Shahed” Kamikaze Drones For $500

Footage Appears To Show China Mass-Producing Iranian-Style Kamikaze Drones

The development of these low-cost drones will be accelerated by more advanced power plants, as well as AI-enabled targeting, which could make the kill chain truly autonomous. There are already reports suggesting that AI kill chains have arrived.

It is safe to assume militaries worldwide will stockpile one-way attack drones by the millions in the years ahead.