Category: News
John Deere Calls “Large Ag Cycle” Bottom Next Year – Just As China Ramps Up U.S. Soybean Buying
John Deere Calls “Large Ag Cycle” Bottom Next Year – Just As China Ramps Up U.S. Soybean Buying
Economic conditions for American farmers have been brutal this year, as China shifted much of its soybean and other commodity purchases to South America. But the new Trump-Xi trade deal has sparked hope, with Beijing ramping up U.S. crop purchases once again. If sustained, this could signal that the worst of the farm-sector downturn is finally behind us.
American farmers finally received some clarity from equipment-maker John Deere, which said Wednesday morning in an earnings update that the bottom of the large agricultural cycle may materialize in 2026.
“Looking ahead, we believe 2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle,” John May, chairman and CEO of John Deere, wrote in a statement.
Deere’s fiscal fourth-quarter outlook for 2026 highlights just how fragile the U.S. farm economy remains. It estimated fiscal-year net income between $4 and $4.75 billion, well below the $5.31 billion Bloomberg Consensus, sending shares down about 2% in premarket trading in New York. Deere shares are up 17% on the year, as of Tuesday’s closing.
Here’s a snapshot of Deere’s mixed quarter, beating estimates on several key lines while showing continued margin pressure across major segments (courtsey of Bloomberg):
Headline Results
EPS: $3.93 (vs. $4.55 y/y), topping the $3.88 estimate
Net income: $1.07B, down 14% y/y but slightly above expectations
Total net sales & revenue: $12.39B, up 11% y/y
Production & Precision
Ag: Sales: $4.74B, up 10% y/y and ahead of estimates
Operating profit: $604M, down 8% y/y
Margin compression continues (12.7% vs. 15.3% y/y)
Small Ag & Turf:
Sales: $2.46B, up 6.5% y/y and stronger than expected
Operating profit collapsed to $25M (-89% y/y)
Margin plunged to 1% (vs. 10.1% y/y)
Construction & Forestry:
Sales: $3.38B, up a strong 27% y/y
Operating profit: $348M, up 6% y/y
Margins slipped to 10.3% from 12.3% y/y
Deere’s call that the agricultural cycle will bottom next year comes as the Trump-Xi trade agreement aims to boost U.S. crop shipments. Rising export demand should help improve farmer sentiment and incomes, laying the groundwork for a more meaningful farm-sector recovery.
The latest word from Reuters is that China has purchased at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans worth around $300 million in contracts signed on Tuesday. The purchases were confirmed by two traders with direct knowledge of the deals. This comes just two days after Trump and Xi spoke by phone, during which Trump touted a “great deal for U.S. farmers.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 08:40
‘Forage of the future’: Minnesota’s StableFeed makes horse- and eco-friendly hay
KASSON, Minn. — There’s a little-known legume that blooms brilliant pink flowers and brings all sorts of benefits to both the soil it grows in and the animals that graze on it.
It’s called sainfoin, and Mary Hartman is building an industry on it.
“This is going to be the forage of the future,” she said.
Hartman’s business, StableFeed, is doing what many governments and universities have tried and failed to accomplish: create a sustainable market for this novel hay that nourishes animals with high protein without causing bloating and acts as a natural de-wormer to boot.
“If we talk about (Hartman’s) biggest hurdle, it’s going to be trying to keep up with the pace of demand,” said Alan Doering, a senior scientist at Minnesota’s Agricultural Utilization Research Institute (AURI).
Hartman originally founded StableFeed in 2017 to sell a homemade chia seed supplement that turned around her horse’s health and is still a strong seller now.
That first year, she had $11,000 in sales.
“I thought, ‘Wow, I have enough to pay for my horse habit,’ ” she said. ”From there, we’ve grown to $1.3 million in sales and profitable for the first time last year.”
By the end of the year, StableFeed, now based out of an expanding office and warehouse in Kasson, could approach $2 million in sales.
That’s a fraction of the $4 billion market for horse feed in North America, which giants like Cargill and Land O’Lakes-owned Purina Mills dominate.
But the rapid uptake of Hartman’s natural forage and supplements shows there’s an appetite in the equestrian world for a change to the status quo.
“I think the movement in the horse world is the same as with dogs and cats: We need a species-appropriate diet,” she said. “The whole purpose is to come up with a clean diet: minimally processed whole foods that are proper for a horse.”
Last year, StableFeed won the Naturally Minnesota Pitch Slam, topping other fast-rising food and ag companies and impressing judges. This month, AURI named it Ag Innovator of the Year, a decades-old prize that helps validate a company’s direction.
“There are so many areas she could expand this sainfoin opportunity,” Doering said.
StableFeed’s chia-biscuit business was already taking off in 2018. But after Hartman came across sainfoin, the plant’s potential gripped her.
She went into Doering’s office with a Ziploc bag of seeds, herbs, flowers and sainfoin she wanted to turn into bags of supplemental horse feed. After a few years of development, this “functional food for horses,” as it says on the bag, is now available at specialty retailers around the country, alongside 100% and blended sainfoin forage pellets.
“She knew exactly where she was going to go, and if she ran into hurdles, production or sourcing, she either went around the hurdle or right through it,” said Doering, who helped formulate StableFeed’s sainfoin-based products. “She is driven.”
Hartman’s commitment came from knowing sainfoin could change the way people care for horses and other livestock.
Grown in Europe and Asia for hundreds of years, sainfoin didn’t find much success in the U.S. until about 60 years ago, when new varieties took root. Still, farmers sparsely plant it, and it’s mostly out West.
Economics have held it back: “The large seed, high seeding rate and high seed prices often reduce interest in using this species,” according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture guide to sainfoin.
Sainfoin can fetch a more favorable price for farmers now that buyers like StableFeed are proving there’s a market.
“They used to make $80 or $90 a ton on sainfoin, and I pay them $200 to $220,” Hartman said.
What started as 50 acres of sainfoin to supply StableFeed has grown to 1,500. The crop StableFeed sources is from Montana, though it could thrive in certain Minnesota soils, too.
The self-seeding perennial doesn’t produce as much volume as alfalfa hay, but as a deep-rooted, drought-resistant crop, it’s better for the environment.
“Sainfoin can sit on the landscape for decades,” Doering said. “It’s like a permanent cover crop while also adding value” from honey production. Pollinators like bees love it.
Chia biscuits and sainfoin were a revelation for Hartman’s horse, Monty. A cycle of health issues had trapped the German riding pony. Medicine and traditional supplements weren’t helping.
Monty’s feed ended up being the key.
“Too much ultra-processed food in your diet, or in a horse’s diet, is not healthy,” Hartman said. “Whole foods are always better. Research shows us that.”
Hartman didn’t set out to build a business, but her success with Monty meant other horses might benefit, too. As the success of her chia supplement grew from word of mouth, StableFeed grew from Hartman’s kitchen to her basement to the garage to a dedicated facility in Kasson, not far from where she lives in Rochester.
Sales kept growing as professional riders, mustang trainers and veterinarians helped spread the word in equestrian circles. Now StableFeed has a small staff and marketing budget, as well as sponsorships with riders.
“Making the switch came from seeing the proof in my horses,” said Florida-based event rider Elisa Wallace in a testimonial video.
Hartman can tell when a horse is on StableFeed, which she calls a supplemental food to complement grass and hay. It’s that shiny coat and ideal topline — basically a horse’s posture and muscle build.
But horses might just be the beginning. Because it’s anti-bloat, sainfoin could help reduce gas — and in turn, methane emissions — from cows.
“Sainfoin is highly palatable to sheep and cattle and is preferred over alfalfa,” the USDA guide said.
Before the livestock revolution, Hartman, 63, is focused first on helping sainfoin reach more horse stables and building a dedicated mill in Montana.
“There’s a plant that can improve soil health and also support farmers, clean up the food supply and support pollinators,” she said. “How often as a human being do you have the privilege of being able to be a part of something like that?”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/26/minnesota-stablefeed-hay/
Initial Jobless Claims Tumble To 7 Month Lows
Initial Jobless Claims Tumble To 7 Month Lows
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time tumbled to just 216k last week – the lowest since April
Source: Bloomberg
Since the shutdown was lifted, jobless claims among workers in the ‘Deep Tristate’ have tumbled…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing jobless claims ticked higher – remaining above the 1.9 million level, near its highest since Nov 2021
Source: Bloomberg
…so much for the struggling labor market?
Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 08:36
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-tumble-7-month-lows
Political Fallout Is Biggest Risk For Market After ‘Botched’ UK Budget
Political Fallout Is Biggest Risk For Market After ‘Botched’ UK Budget
“Markets have had to catch up pretty quickly”
The astonishing early reveal of the UK budget’s main measures is causing chaos, with volatile moves in bonds and the pound…
Rachel Reeves’ Budget raises taxes by £26bn, taking the burden to an all-time high of 38 per cent of GDP by the end of the parliament, according to an accidentally released forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
The OBR’s assessment of Reeves’ Budget was published amid chaotic scenes before noon on Wednesday, around 45 minutes before the chancellor delivered her crucial second Budget.
It revealed that Reeves will freeze all personal income tax thresholds until 2030-31, in a move that is expected to raise £8.3bn a year and is the biggest tax-raising measure.
The second-biggest tax measure is a raid on salary sacrifice pension contributions, which will raise an additional £4.7bn. Among the other measures mentioned are charges on electric cars raising £1.4bn, gambling duty reform to bring in £1.1bn, and a council tax surcharge on homes worth more than £2mn, which will raise £400mn in 2029-2030.
As the most unpopular UK Chancellor ever…
…there’s concern among cyber security experts as to how the OBR leak today happened too.
“It’s truly astonishing that such a market sensitive document could find its way online via official channels in advance of the Chancellor’s speech,” Kenny MacAulay, CEO of accounting software platform Acting Office said by email.
“Basic compliance requirements should be in place to prevent this from happening, and a complete review is required about how and why such a major breach would take place.”
But as Bloomberg strategist, Simon White notes, UK market spreads face the bigger risk from the potential political fallout if the budget lands badly, rather than from any major surprises in the announcement.
Never in recent memory has a UK budget had such grim anticipation, nor been so botched in its preparation.
A smorgasbord of leaks and U-turns has preceded what is expected to be a smorgasbord of tax rises and extra spending commitments.
Nevertheless, the market is not yet having a nervous breakdown. A combination of risk spreads and other UK markets, such as sterling, asset swap spreads and bond spreads, has widened recently, but is still well below where it was at the time of Reeves’ first full budget in October 2024.
The market is giving a cautious pass to Reeves’ tax-raising plans (which have been mostly leaked over the last 24 hours), but it’s an uneasy truce. It’s not inconceivable, as also discussed by my colleagues earlier, that pressure will mount on Reeves to quit if her party’s backbenchers don’t like her policies, or it lands especially badly with the electorate.
Unless the narrative shifts away from soaking working people and savers to inflate an already bloated benefits bill, the blowback may be considerable.
If Reeves comes under risk, the Prime Minister would be in the firing line too. There is talk of a “coronation” for Health Secretary Wes Streeting after the local elections in May. Markets discount to the present, and so does politics. Pressure might grow for a change of leadership much sooner.
Streeting would not be expected to be as fiscally loose as some other leadership candidates, but he is an untested quantity. Nor do we know who his Chancellor would be. What we do know is that a typical Labour MP did not get elected to save money.
Markets abhor uncertainty as well as spendthrift politicians. Risk spreads will widen much more sharply if Reeves plays a poor hand badly today.
Andrew Griffith, shadow business secretary, said:
“This Budget process has been a fiasco from start to finish and the unprecedented leak of the OBR’s report is just the final embarrassment.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 08:26
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/political-fallout-biggest-risk-market-after-botched-uk-budget
Ministra británica presenta presupuesto, cuyo contenido fue filtrado anticipadamente
Por PAN PYLAS y JILL LAWLESS
LONDRES (AP) — La ministra de Hacienda británica Rachel Reeves presentó el miércoles ante el Parlamento una propuesta de presupuesto que incluye aumentos de impuestos, tras una filtración sin precedentes que básicamente expuso sus medidas.
El mayor cambio en términos de dinero recaudado, según la filtración de la Oficina de Responsabilidad Presupuestaria, es congelar los niveles en los que los contribuyentes pagan los diferentes niveles de impuestos en Gran Bretaña, lo que significa que a medida que los salarios aumentan, más personas caen en tramos impositivos más altos.
Otras medidas incluyen un impuesto a las mansiones sobre propiedades de alto valor, cambios en el régimen de impuestos sobre el capital y una reducción de las disposiciones libres de impuestos para pensiones privadas.
Según los documentos filtrados de la oficina presupuestaria, el gobierno recaudará 26.000 millones de libras (34.000 millones de dólares) en 2029-30.
La oficina presupuestaria culpó a un “error técnico” por la filtración, diciendo que se publicó “en nuestro sitio web demasiado temprano esta mañana”. Indicó que informará a todas las autoridades pertinentes, incluido el Tesoro, sobre lo sucedido.
La filtración es una vergüenza adicional para el gobierno laborista de centro-izquierda del Reino Unido tras semanas de especulación y señales mixtas que inquietaron a los mercados.
El presupuesto, el segundo de Reeves desde que los laboristas regresaron al poder después de 14 años con una victoria electoral aplastante en julio de 2024, podría resultar crucial para la fortuna tanto de Reeves como de su jefe, el primer ministro Keir Starmer.
Aumentos de impuestos
El mensaje general en el presupuesto es muy similar al de su primer presupuesto hace poco más de un año. En ese momento, insistió en que sería el único gran aumento de impuestos en este período parlamentario, que está previsto que dure hasta 2029.
Desafortunadamente para Reeves, la economía británica, la sexta más grande del mundo, no está funcionando tan bien como esperaba, con muchos críticos culpando su decisión del año pasado de imponer impuestos a las empresas. Aunque hubo señales de que la economía estaba mejorando en la primera mitad del año, cuando fue la de más rápido crecimiento entre el Grupo de los Siete, ha vuelto a tambalearse.
“La ministra enfrenta un delicado acto de equilibrio al transmitir estabilidad fiscal mientras avanza en la agenda de crecimiento”, declaró Peter Arnold, economista jefe de la firma de consultoría EY U.K.
Las oportunidades perdidas han sido una característica regular de la economía del Reino Unido desde la crisis financiera global de 2008-2009. Si la economía hubiera seguido creciendo a niveles anteriores a la crisis, sería casi una cuarta parte más grande de lo que es ahora. Eso es mucha actividad perdida, y muchos ingresos fiscales perdidos que no entran en las arcas del Tesoro.
Además de los costos a largo plazo de la crisis financiera, las finanzas públicas de Gran Bretaña, al igual que las de otras naciones, se han visto aún más presionadas por los costos de la pandemia de COVID-19, la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania y los aranceles globales del presidente estadounidense Donald Trump. El Reino Unido lleva la carga adicional del Brexit, que ha restado miles de millones a la economía desde que el país abandonó la Unión Europea en 2020.
Mientras tanto, Reeves tiene una serie de compromisos de gasto destinados a aliviar el costo de vida, ya que la inflación sigue siendo obstinadamente alta, incluyendo compensar una serie de reveses en los recortes de bienestar planificados y la probable eliminación de un límite en los beneficios pagados a familias con varios hijos. Eso y medidas como congelar las tarifas ferroviarias o reducir los impuestos verdes en las facturas de energía no son baratas.
Altas apuestas políticas
El presupuesto es un momento de alto riesgo para Reeves y Starmer, quien enfrenta una creciente preocupación de los legisladores laboristas por sus terribles índices de popularidad. Las encuestas de opinión consistentemente colocan a los laboristas muy por detrás del partido ultraderechista Reform UK liderado por Nigel Farage.
La próxima elección no está pautada hasta 2029, y el gobierno sigue esperando que sus medidas económicas impulsen un mayor crecimiento y alivien las presiones financieras.
Pero la especulación está en aumento sobre un posible desafío al liderazgo de Starmer desde dentro de su partido, y los analistas dicen que un presupuesto fallido podría aumentar la sensación de crisis dentro del gobierno.
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Esta historia fue traducida del inglés por un editor de AP con ayuda de una herramienta de inteligencia artificial generativa.
Ohio State-Michigan and Oregon-Washington clashes have Big Ten championship — and CFP — implications
There’s much at stake when No. 15 Michigan hosts No. 1 Ohio State and No. 6 Oregon visits Washington on the final weekend of college football’s regular season.
Here’s what to watch in the Big Ten.
Game of the week
No. 1 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) at No. 15 Michigan (9-2, 7-1), Saturday, 11 a.m. (Fox)
Michigan needs to beat the top-ranked Buckeyes for a fifth straight time to have any hope of reaching the College Football Playoff. Michigan also could reach the Big Ten championship game if it beats Ohio State and either No. 5 Oregon loses to Washington or No. 2 Indiana falls to Purdue.
Ohio State would clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game by beating Michigan. There’s a tiny chance Ohio State could lose and have a rematch with Michigan in the Big Ten championship game, but it would involve Washington upsetting Oregon and Purdue stunning Indiana.
BetMGM Sportsbook has Ohio State as a 10-point favorite.
The undercard
No. 6 Oregon (10-1, 7-1) at Washington (8-3, 5-3), 2:30 p.m. (CBS)
Oregon could essentially lock up a playoff spot and would have an excellent chance at a first-round home game if it wins. The Ducks also could reach the Big Ten championship game if they beat Washington and either Michigan upsets Ohio State or Purdue surprises Indiana. The Ducks carry a Bowl Subdivision-leading 11-game road winning streak into this matchup.
Oregon is a 6 1/2-point favorite, according to BetMGM.
Impact players
— Nebraska RB Emmett Johnson has rushed for a Big Ten-leading 1,234 yards, and he also has caught 44 passes. He’s the first Big Ten player to have at least 1,200 yards rushing and 40 receptions in a season since 2017, when Penn State’s Saquon Barkley and Northwestern’s Justin Jackson both accomplished the feat.
— Northwestern QB Preston Stone completed all 15 of his second-half passes and went 25 of 30 for 305 yards with two touchdowns as the Wildcats rallied from 15 points down to beat Minnesota 38-35 and become bowl eligible.
Inside the numbers
Penn State RB Kaytron Allen became the Nittany Lions’ career leading rusher after running for 160 yards in a 37-10 blowout of Nebraska. Allen has rushed for 3,954 yards to overtake Evan Royster, who ran for 3,932 yards from 2007-10. … Wisconsin is the first Big Ten team to collect five sacks in three straight conference games since Penn State in 2007. … Only three FBS teams have won at least 10 games each of the last five seasons, and two of them are Big Ten members: Ohio State and Oregon. The other is Georgia. … The Ohio State-Michigan series is tied 22-22-4 the 48 times they’ve faced off when both teams were ranked. … Oregon has 23 touchdowns scored by true freshmen this season, matching North Texas atop the FBS. … A victory Friday would mark the seventh straight time Iowa has won at Nebraska.
Get to know him
Penn State’s coaching search may be overshadowing anything the Nittany Lions do on the field as the season winds down after James Franklin was fired amid a six-game skid, but freshman quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer is making the most of his opportunities that followed a season-ending ankle injury to Drew Allar.
Grunkemeyer went 11 of 12 for 181 yards with a touchdown pass in a win over Nebraska. He was the first Penn State quarterback to complete at least 90% of his passes in a game while making at least 10 attempts since Todd Blackledge went 10 of 11 in a 41-16 triumph over Syracuse in 1981.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/26/big-ten-football-ohio-state-michigan-2/
Australia mantiene prohibición de redes sociales para menores pese a impugnación
Por ROD McGUIRK
MELBOURNE, Australia (AP) — El gobierno australiano determinó que la prohibición de acceso a redes sociales a los menores entrará en vigor el próximo mes según lo programado, a pesar de que un grupo defensor de derechos impugnó el miércoles en los tribunales la legislación, que es pionera en el mundo.
El Proyecto de Libertad Digital, con sede en Sydney, presentó el miércoles ante el Tribunal Superior una impugnación constitucional contra una ley que entrará en vigor el 10 de diciembre, la cual prohíbe que los niños australianos menores de 16 años tengan cuentas en plataformas específicas.
La ministra de Comunicaciones, Anika Wells, se refirió a la impugnación cuando dijo posteriormente al Parlamento que su gobierno seguía comprometido con que la prohibición entrara en vigor según lo programado.
“No nos dejaremos intimidar por impugnaciones legales. No nos dejaremos intimidar por las grandes empresas tecnológicas. En nombre de los padres australianos, nos mantenemos firmes”, afirmó Wells ante el Parlamento.
El presidente del Proyecto de Libertad Digital, John Ruddick, es legislador estatal de Nueva Gales del Sur por el minoritario Partido Libertario.
“La supervisión parental de la actividad en línea es hoy la responsabilidad parental primordial. No queremos delegar esa responsabilidad al gobierno y a burócratas no elegidos”, manifestó Ruddick en un comunicado.
“Esta prohibición es un ataque directo al derecho de los jóvenes a la libertad de comunicación política”, añadió.
El caso es llevado por el bufete de abogados de Sydney Pryor, Tzannes y Wallis Solicitors en nombre de dos niños de 15 años.
El portavoz del Proyecto de Libertad Digital, Sam Palmer, no pudo decir si se solicitará una orden judicial que impida que la restricción de edad entre en vigor el 10 de diciembre antes de que se escuche el caso.
La semana pasada, el gigante tecnológico Meta comenzó a enviar a miles de niños australianos que se sospecha tienen menos de 16 años una advertencia para que descarguen sus historiales digitales y eliminen sus cuentas de Facebook, Instagram y Threads antes de que la prohibición entre en vigor.
El gobierno ha dicho que las tres plataformas de Meta, además de Snapchat, TikTok, X y YouTube, deben tomar medidas razonables para excluir a los titulares de cuentas australianas menores de 16 años o enfrentar multas de hasta 50 millones de dólares australianos (32 millones de dólares).
Malasia también ha anunciado planes para prohibir las cuentas de redes sociales para niños menores de 16 años a partir de 2026.
El ministro de Comunicaciones de Malasia, Fahmi Fadzil, dijo esta semana que su gabinete aprobó la medida como parte de un esfuerzo más amplio para proteger a los jóvenes de daños en línea como el ciberacoso, las estafas y la explotación sexual. Señaló que su gobierno estudiaba los enfoques adoptados por Australia y otros países, así como el posible uso de verificaciones electrónicas con tarjetas de identidad o pasaportes para verificar la edad de los usuarios.
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Esta historia fue traducida del inglés por un editor de AP con la ayuda de una herramienta de inteligencia artificial generativa.
The Middle Class Is Cracking
The Middle Class Is Cracking
Authored by Charles Hugh Smioth via OfTwoMinds blog,
Borrowing more to maintain spending is hanging on by one’s fingernails, not middle-class security.
The middle class is cracking, but if you want a statistic that “proves” this, there isn’t one. The cracking isn’t a statistic, it’s the culmination of observations logged over the past 15 years about these critical measures of what it takes to qualify as middle class:
1. How much income a household needs to secure the minimum qualifications of a middle class standard of living / quality of life, based on the conventional standards of the 1960s – 1980s. (The qualifying characteristics are listed below.)
2. The upward or downward mobility of those claiming middle class status. Put another way: if it requires monumental effort and perfect execution to achieve the minimum qualifications of middle class security, then that isn’t a “middle class” set of qualifications, that’s an elite set of qualifications.
3. Precarity: how much (or little) financial disruption does it take to tip a household into a down-spiral that becomes increasingly difficult to escape. The foundation of any non-trivial definition of “middle class” (any definition that is solely based on income is trivial) is the financial resilience offered by ownership of assets, particularly income-producing assets, and savings that can be tapped to handle emergencies.
I’ve been addressing these issues for many years. Here are a few of my posts on the decay of the middle class:
Priced Out of the Middle Class (June 28, 2012)
What Does It Take To Be Middle Class? (December 5, 2013)
Misplaced Pride: Most of the “Middle Class” Is Actually Working Class (June 14, 2019)
Squeezed for Decades, America’s Working Class Is Finally Up Against the Wall (May 13, 2024)
Here are the minimum requirements to qualify as middle class, drawn up by myself and readers:
1. Meaningful healthcare insurance. By meaningful I mean healthcare insurance that doesn’t have high deductibles–if you have to pay thousands of dollars before the insurance kicks in, that’s not insurance, it’s a simulation of insurance–and insurance that isn’t reduced to meaninglessness by limitations on coverage and/or zero coverge for core elements of healthcare.
2. Significant equity (25%-50%) in a home or other real estate.
3. Income/expenses that enable the household to save at least 6% of its net income.
4. Significant retirement funds: 401Ks, IRAs, etc.
5. The ability to service all debt and expenses over the medium-term if one of the primary household wage-earners lose their job.
6. Reliable vehicles for each wage earner.
7. If a household requires government assistance to maintain the family lifestyle, their Middle Class status is in doubt.
8. A percentage of non-paper, non-real estate hard assets such as family heirlooms, precious metals, tools, etc. that can be transferred to the next generation, i.e. generational wealth.
9. Ability to invest in offspring (education, extracurricular clubs/training, etc.).
10. Leisure time devoted to the maintenance of physical/spiritual/mental fitness.
11. Continual accumulation of human and social capital (new skills, networks of collaborators, markets for one’s services, etc.)
12. Family ownership of income-producing assets such as rental properties, bonds, family-owned business, etc.
The absolute scale of these requirements is less important than all twelve being included in the household’s quiver. In other words, it’s not necessary to own equity worth millions, but it is important to own meaningful equity across the range of assets listed above.
Back in 2012, I went through each requirement and arrived at a minimum household income of $106,000– adjusted for inflation, the equivalent sum today is $152,000. Before you scoff, please read the entirety of Michael Green’s careful analysis of what qualifies as “poverty level income” and “middle class income:” How a Broken Benchmark Quietly Broke America (via Cheryl A.)
Green concluded the minimum income needed today is $140,000— more or less the same as my estimate, especially given his detailed explanation of why this minimum is barebones.
Green’s analysis of middle-class precarity dismantles all the statistical rah-rah presented as evidence that we’re all getting richer every day, in every way. Like insurance with stupidly high deductibles, this isn’t middle class security, it’s a simulation of middle class security.
This report in the Wall Street Journal suggests this reality is now so undeniably obvious that the WSJ had to address it: The Middle Class Is Buckling Under Almost Five Years of Persistent Inflation: Workers growing tired of economy in which everything seems to get more expensive.
As Green explained, soaring costs for big-ticket essentials–all the things required to participate in the economy in a meaningful fashion–are crushing the middle class.
Unless you lucked into an early seating for the banquet of wealth served up by The Everything Bubble–then life is good: Feeling Great About the Economy? You Must Own Stocks: Investors’ rosy feelings about their stock market gains are powering spending–but it’s a different story for everyone else.
This has generated a generational divide in security/precarity and wealth accumulation: those who bought stocks and housing long ago when they were relatively cheap have piled up wealth not by being more productive, but by becoming early owners of capital that has been goosed by policies seeking to boost spending via “the wealth effect.”
That this bubble-generated wealth flowed predominantly to older households with incomes that enabled asset purchases effectively made the rich richer. Those without these advantages lost ground, and absent the cushion of wealth piled up by The Everything Bubble, their claim to middle-class security is more a simulation than the real thing.
The middle class is cracking, and the Everything Bubble hasn’t even started to pop yet; once it does, job losses will accelerate due to the self-reinforcing nature of job losses reducing income and spending which then triggers more job cuts. How the U.S. Economy Became Hooked on AI Spending: Growth has been bolstered by data-center investment and stock-market wealth. A reversal could raise the risk of recession.
This chart illustrates the reality: the already-wealthy have pulled away as financialization, globalization, precarity and inflation gutted the middle class.
The solidity and economic dominance of the US middle-class is illusory. The middle class is cracking, and borrowing more to maintain spending is hanging on by one’s fingernails, not middle-class security.
* * *
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Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 08:05
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/middle-class-cracking
Medicare Secures 71% Price Cut On Novo’s Anti-Obesity Drug As Part Of Broad Affordability Push
Medicare Secures 71% Price Cut On Novo’s Anti-Obesity Drug As Part Of Broad Affordability Push
The Trump administration is laser-focused on “Operation Affordability,” aiming to drive down the cost of food and healthcare ahead of the midterm election cycle.
On Tuesday, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced a savings of 44%, or $12 billion, from last year’s negotiated Medicare spending on 15 drugs used to treat severe chronic conditions and cancer.
Of those price cuts, CMS negotiated a 71% discount on GLP-1 medication, including Ozempic and Wegovy, for Medicare patients.
Other significant reductions include a 50% cut for Pfizer’s Ibrance, a 48% drop for the prostate-cancer drug Xtandi, and a 73% reduction for GSK’s Trelegy Ellipta.
Here’s more from CMS:
The Maximum Fair Prices (MFPs) for these 15 drugs will become effective January 1, 2027, bringing the total number of negotiated drugs to 25 when combined with the 10 previously negotiated drugs with MFPs taking effect January 1, 2026. The 15 drugs in this second negotiation cycle, used to treat cancer, diabetes, asthma, and other chronic illnesses, represent some of the highest Medicare Part D spending. The MFPs offer substantial savings for both beneficiaries and the Medicare program.
These are the first large-scale, publicly disclosed Medicare drug-price negotiations – and for good reason, as the administration works to lower healthcare costs.
“President Trump directed us to stop at nothing to lower health care costs for the American people,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. “As we work to Make America Healthy Again, we will use every tool at our disposal to deliver affordable health care to seniors.”
Bloomberg quoted Novo Nordisk as saying it had “serious concerns” about government-driven pricing and continued to oppose the negotiation framework, even as it pivoted toward aggressive price cuts for its GLP-1 drugs to gain market share.
Related:
Novo Undercuts Lilly’s Obesity Drug Price, Now Cheaper Than Car Payment
Trump’s Lilly And Novo Deal Slashes Monthly Weight-Loss Drug Costs By Up To 90%
“Surgical & Beautiful”: Trump Boasts Operation Affordability Ahead Of Midterm Cycle
CMS’ announcement underscores the administration’s accelerated push to lower prescription drug costs, expand affordability for Medicare beneficiaries, and reduce broader medical expenses, alongside efforts to ease food prices. With low-income household budgets under strain, affordability is shaping up to be a major topic heading into the midterm election cycle.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/26/2025 – 07:45
Daywatch: ‘A long road ahead,’ family of Blue Line burn victim says
Good morning, Chicago.
After an outpouring of support following her arson attack on a CTA Blue Line train, the family of Bethany MaGee has established a GoFundMe campaign to help offset costs as she continues her recovery.
MaGee, 26, was set on fire as she rode the CTA Blue Line through the Loop last week in a jarring attack allegedly carried out by a career criminal with dozens of prior arrests and a questionable mental health history.
“Many of her immediate medical expenses are covered by insurance and a victims fund, but with such a long road ahead of her, the freedom from financial worries would be a tremendous blessing,” MaGee’s family said in a GoFundMe campaign launched yesterday. “No gifts are expected, but any that are given will go directly to Bethany.”
Within hours of its opening, the campaign received nearly $10,000 in donations.
And here are the top stories you need to know to start your day, including the latest on mid-census redistricting in Indiana, a fresh look at the 1985 Bears and a local couple manning the Butterball turkey hotline.
Today’s eNewspaper edition | Subscribe to more newsletters | Asking Eric | Horoscopes | Puzzles & Games | Today in History
FBI Director Kash Patel speaks with reporters during a news conference at the Department of Justice, Nov. 19, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
FBI seeks interviews with Democrats who urged US troops to defy illegal orders
Democratic lawmakers who appeared in a social media video urging U.S. troops to defy “illegal orders” say the FBI has contacted them to begin scheduling interviews, signaling a possible inquiry into the matter.
Marimar Martinez speaks at the Dirksen U.S. Courthouse in Chicago, Nov. 20, 2025, after federal prosecutors abruptly moved to dismiss all charges against her. Martinez was shot by a federal agent after she allegedly rammed a vehicle in Brighton Park during Operation Midway Blitz. (Terrence Antonio James/Chicago Tribune)
A criminal probe tied to Chicago woman’s shooting by Border Patrol agent continues, feds say
A federal prosecutor revealed in court that despite assault charges being dismissed, a separate criminal investigation remains ongoing into an incident in Chicago’s Brighton Park neighborhood last month where a woman was shot by a Border Patrol agent.
Tara Reid attends GLSEN’s Rise Up LA Benefit Gala at NeueHouse Hollywood on Oct. 28, 2023, in Los Angeles. (Kevin Winter/Getty Images/TNS)
Actress Tara Reid alleges she was drugged at Rosemont hotel bar
Actress Tara Reid told TMZ on Monday that she was hospitalized early Sunday after drinking a glass of wine she alleged had been spiked.
In a news release last night, Rosemont’s Public Safety Department confirmed the incident involving Reid, stating the department responded to a call of a sick person at Rosemont’s DoubleTree Hotel just before 12:40 a.m.
The Indiana Statehouse appears on May 5, 2017, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
Indiana legislature to meet in December to take up mid-census redistricting
The Indiana legislature plans to reconvene in early December to vote on mid-census redistricting, leaders for both legislative chambers said yesterday, marking a reversal from last week.
Morgan Geyser appears in a Waukesha County courtroom, Jan. 9, 2025, in Waukesha, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
Slender Man attacker won’t fight extradition to Wisconsin after fleeing group home
The Wisconsin woman who won release from a mental institution after almost killing her sixth grade classmate in the name of horror villain Slender Man only to flee the state weeks later won’t fight extradition from Illinois.
Susan and Michael Maddox, faculty members for the College of DuPage Culinary Arts program, pose for a photo at one of the College’s culinary kitchens on Nov. 12, 2025. During the holiday season, the couple take calls for for the Naperville-based Butterball Turkey Talk-Line. (College of DuPage)
Married College of DuPage professors help man Butterball turkey hotline in Naperville
Michael Maddox has a simple job: Save turkeys and relationships, one phone call at a time. Or at least, that’s what he and his wife Susan like to jokingly tell each other.
The pair are among more than 50 people who spend their time during the holiday season answering questions about everything from thawing to brining to spatchcocking turkeys. They are joined by a team of culinary and food science experts at the Naperville-based Butterball Turkey Talk-Line, a hotline designed to help people make the best turkey possible for Thanksgiving or Christmas.
Mayor Harold Washington, second from left, does his version of the “Super Bowl Shuffle” at City Hall on Dec. 16, 1985, with Richard Dent, left, Otis Wilson and Willie Gault, right, of the Bears. The players appeared with the mayor to announce that a portion of proceeds from the players’ new record will be donated to the Sharing-It program. (José More/Chicago Tribune)
Column: ‘The Shuffle’ is one more documentary on the 1985 Chicago Bears, the team that keeps on giving
The stories have all been told and retold, but there never seems to be a moment in time when someone doesn’t believe we want to hear them again, writes Paul Sullivan. The ’85 Bears are the gift that keeps on giving, reminding us of how wonderful a time it was, and how long it’s been since Super Bowl XX.
The latest reminder is courtesy of HBO, which yesterday begins airing a 40-minute documentary titled “The Shuffle.”
Pierre Andresen and Kenny Beecham discuss the NBA during the filming of an episode of “Numbers on the Board” at Enjoy Basketball in Oak Brook on Nov. 11, 2025. (Talia Sprague/for the Chicago Tribune)
Kenny Beecham stays true to his roots in new NBC partnership: ‘Before I was a creator, I was a Bulls fan’
NBC’s offer to fold Enjoy Basketball into its larger portfolio of NBA content reflects a shift across the sports media landscape to diversify offerings of nongame content.
A visitor explores the “American Prophets” exhibit, Nov. 20, 2025, which is now open at the American Writers Museum in Chicago. (Terrence Antonio James/Chicago Tribune)
Column: In ‘American Prophets,’ how writers feel about religion and spirituality
You can hear the sound upon entering the American Writers Museum. It is the sound of typewriters, that ancient writing instrument, being banged on by a bunch of first and second graders on a school field trip. It was last Thursday and, as usual on most any school days, the museum was an active place, not only with kids but with a staff eager in anticipation of the opening of its latest exhibition.
“American Prophets” opened Friday in one of the city’s youngest but also one of its most important places, an increasingly artful blend of information, entertainment and enlightenment, writes Rick Kogan.
Gospel singer Floriene Watson, seated on left with Sylvia Watson Hoston, surrounded by Amos Watson (from left), Alice Watson, Irvin Watson, Romance Watson and Vivian Watson of the Watson Singers, as well as friend and fellow gospel singer Ozella Weber. (Provided by the Willis family)
Floriene Watson Willis sang in the early days of gospel music. She taught Aretha Franklin a hymn. She’s turning 99.
There are only a handful of people alive today who participated in the formation of modern gospel music in Chicago during the 1930s and 1940s. Fewer still worked directly with the genre’s founding mothers and fathers in those early days. Perhaps only one of them can claim to have also taught Aretha Franklin a hymn that became her first commercial single as a soloist.
Floriene Watson Willis is the one.
Turning 99 on Dec. 6, she never became a major star, but she nevertheless held a prominent position in the sanctuary as gospel music formed and flourished in Chicago some 90 years ago.
