Category: News
Bull Market Genius Is A Dangerous Thing
Bull Market Genius Is A Dangerous Thing
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
During extended upward-trending markets that reward risk-takers and punish caution, everyone is a “bull market genius.” That dynamic flips investor psychology and, over time, creates a false sense of control. As the market continues to climb, risk appears to vanish, and investors believe that nothing can go wrong, leading them to take on increasing levels of risk and leverage. After all, why wouldn’t you if there is “no risk” in investing?
“Over the past 15 years, the markets were repeatedly bailed out of more serious corrections by either fiscal or monetary policy. That neutral stimulus (the interventions) was repeatedly paired with a reward-stimulus of markets going higher. As such, investors were “conditioned” to expect rescue whenever issues arise, to buy stocks on every decline, and to believe that this cycle will indefinitely continue. This was the point we made recently regarding “moral hazard.”
“The Federal Reserve’s well-intentioned interventions have created one of modern finance’s most powerful behavioral distortions: the conviction that there is always a safety net. After the Global Financial Crisis, zero interest rates and repeated rounds of quantitative easing conditioned investors to expect that policy support would always return during volatility. Over time, that conditioning hardened into a reflex: buy every dip, because the Fed will not allow markets to fail. What exactly is the definition of ‘moral hazard?’
Noun – ECONOMICS: The lack of incentive to guard against risk where one is protected from its consequences, e.g., by insurance.
In other words, just as Pavlov’s dogs would start salivating at the “ringing of the bell,” investors are “chasing speculative assets” simply on the assumption that the “food” will arrive. But, as noted, while the Federal Reserve has trained investors to “buy the dip” over the last 15 years, the market has detached from underlying fundamentals,
What starts as smart investing mutates into speculation.
I recently read two excellent articles (here and here) discussing investor behavior during prolonged bull markets. We will dig into the lessons from those articles and how to navigate the market in the future.
The Bull Market Genius and the Problem of Forgetting
Long bull markets build confidence. But not the healthy kind. They create the type that whispers in your ear, “You’re brilliant.” The phenomenon has a name: bull market genius.
Bull market genius is not just overconfidence. It’s a specific brand of self-deception that comes from mistaking a rising tide for your own intelligence. You buy a tech stock. It doubles. You feel smart. You buy five more. They triple. Now you’re a genius, and you start adding leverage to increase returns further. Why wouldn’t you? The market isn’t just working; it’s validating your skill.
However, that is when danger sets in.
As Ben Carlson noted in his article, Benjamin Graham, one of the greatest investors in history, fell victim to this very cycle during the late 1920s. He turned $400,000 into $2.5 million using leverage and aggressive positioning. His success convinced him he had mastered the game. He fantasized about yachts and real estate. Then came 1929. The market collapsed, and his fortune dropped to $375,000, an 85 % decline.
Graham later admitted he ignored risk because the gains felt like proof of his brilliance. That’s bull market genius. It distorts your judgment. It tells you you’re right even when your bets are reckless.
Today’s investors face a similar risk. After more than a decade of upward markets, turbocharged by central banks, low interest rates, and easy credit, many have never seen a sustained downturn. Stocks resemble savings accounts, volatility appears as opportunity, and risk appears as a relic.
In William Bernstein’s article, he discussed what Peter Bernstein (no relation) called the “empty memory bank” problem. Investors who haven’t lived through a real bear market underestimate what losses feel like. They read about crashes, look at them on a chart, but have never experienced the psychological and financial destruction that occurs during one. That absence of pain creates the illusion of safety, which feeds the bull market genius mindset.
This is why you need to be careful about whom you take advice from. Many financial commentators and advisors have never experienced a genuine bear market. That lack of bear market experience leads to much of the “buy and hold” thesis of just “riding out bear market declines.”
Let me warn you, as someone who has lived through and traded through both the Dot-com and Financial Crisis, when the next bear market drawdown arrives, the illusion of safety will be shattered.
What to Focus on When the Cycle Turns
When euphoria dominates, attention shifts from fundamentals to fantasies. At that point, you must focus on risk, not return, which is hard to do when gains keep coming. However, it is a critical step in surviving the long game.
While valuations may not seem to matter in the short run, they do matter in the long run. As discussed in “Valuations Don’t Matter Until They Do,”
“Market valuation measures are just that—a measure of current valuation. Moreover, market valuations are a much better measure of “investor psychology” and a manifestation of the “greater fool theory.” This is why a high correlation exists between one-year trailing valuations and consumer confidence in higher stock prices.”
What market valuations express should be obvious. If you “overpay” for something today, the future net return will be lower than if you had paid a discount for it. You are not buying companies, but streams of cash flow. This is why the math of valuations is so easy to understand. Markets do not reward optimism indefinitely.
Such is why risk management isn’t an option. As we discussed in “Portfolio Risk Management,“
“Most investors focus on being right by obsessing over stock picks, timing, and macro predictions. However, here is the hard truth you must learn: Accuracy is overrated. Survival is underrated.
Your real edge comes from limiting damage when you’re wrong and maximizing gains when you’re right, which is the very foundation of any risk plan. You will lose. You must build your system around that fact, which encompasses three crucial facets:
Position sizing,
Stop-loss rules, and
A strict discipline that is easily repeatable.
“Ultimately, that blueprint will be what separates long-term success from failure. Risk management isn’t about avoiding loss. It’s about ensuring the losses you take don’t destroy you.“
Risk management is not optional.
The only way to prepare for pain is to internalize it before it arrives. If you wait until your account is down 30%, it’s too late. Your emotions will take over, your discipline will crumble, and your memory will fail you. That’s when bull market genius turns to panic.
The next leg of the cycle may not resemble the last, as markets rarely repeat themselves exactly. However, investor behavior always repeats: overconfidence, crowding, and denial have appeared in every bull run, but always end in panic, despair, and massive capital destruction.
You can sidestep those traps with a few straightforward rules.
Rebalance regularly: When one part of your portfolio outgrows the rest, trim it back to a more balanced allocation. That’s not market timing. That’s discipline.
Use stress tests: Simulate a 40 % drop. If that makes you nervous, adjust now.
Keep leverage low: Margin works until it doesn’t. And when it fails, it fails fast.
Keep 5 % to 10 % in cash or equivalents. That buffer gives you choices when prices drop.
Favor fundamentals over hype: Valuation, profitability, free cash flow. The basics matter when the music stops.
Write down your plan: When things get crazy, read it. It will remind you who you were before greed kicked in.
Study past bear markets: Don’t read headlines, but talk to people who have lived through them. Their experience is more valuable than anything else.
You don’t need to time the top, but you do need to survive the cycle. That starts with protecting the downside.
Discipline looks foolish during a mania, but it will save you during the eventual decline. Your goal isn’t to look smart today, it’s to be standing tomorrow.
If you feel like a bull market genius right now, be careful, as that might be the market fooling you.
The most brilliant move is often the boring one, as bull market geniuses always get crushed when reality returns.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 12/15/2025 – 12:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bull-market-genius-dangerous-thing
Lesiones de Patrick Mahomes y Micah Parsons arruinan la semana 15 de la NFL
Por ROB MAADDI
Primero, Patrick Mahomes cayó. Luego, Micah Parsons.
La NFL perdió a dos de sus mejores jugadores de todos los tiempos debido a lesiones graves en la rodilla en un lapso de pocas horas el domingo, arruinando un día lleno de emocionantes remontadas e historias fascinantes.
Philip Rivers, de 44 años, jugó su primer partido en 1.800 días y estuvo cerca de ganar con los Colts de Indianápolis, que llegaron a estar 14 puntos en desventaja, antes de que Jason Myers pateara un gol de campo de 56 yardas a 29 segundos del final para que los Seahawks ganara 18-16.
El actual MVP de la NFL, Josh Allen, lideró a los Bills de Buffalo desde un déficit de 21-0 hasta una victoria de 35-31 en Nueva Inglaterra, rompiendo la racha de diez victorias consecutivas de los Patriots e impidiéndoles asegurar el Este de la AFC.
El quarterback novato Tyler Shough llevó a los Saints de Nueva Orleans a una remontada 20-17 sobre los Panthers, culminada por un gol de campo de 47 yardas de Charlie Smyth cuando el tiempo expiraba, dañando las posibilidades de Carolina de ganar el Sur de la NFC y aumentando las esperanzas de Tampa Bay.
Matthew Stafford y los Rams de Los Ángeles superaron un déficit de diez puntos y pasaron por encima de los Lions 41-34, disminuyendo las aspiraciones de playoffs de Detroit. Los Rams perdieron al receptor tres veces All-Pro Davante Adams por una lesión en el tendón de la corva y podría no estar el jueves en el duelo ante Seattle, una batalla por el primer lugar en el Oeste de la NFC.
Jalen Hurts jugó como el MVP del Super Bowl y los Eagles de Filadelfia rompieron una racha de tres derrotas consecutivas con una victoria de 31-0 sobre los Raiders de Las Vegas.
Pero las lesiones de Mahomes y Parsons eclipsaron todo lo demás que sucedió en la Semana 15.
Incluso la eliminación de los Chiefs de la contienda por los playoffs fue secundaria a la noticia sobre Mahomes.
El tres veces MVP del Super Bowl se rompió el ligamento anterior cruzado de la rodilla izquierda al final del último periodo de la derrota de 16-13 ante los Chargers de Los Ángeles que puso fin a la racha de diez apariciones consecutivas en los playoffs de Kansas City y siete viajes consecutivos al juego de campeonato de la AFC.
“No sé por qué tuvo que pasar esto”, publicó Mahomes en las redes sociales antes de que se anunciara el diagnóstico. “Y no voy a mentir, duele. Pero todo lo que podemos hacer ahora es confiar en Dios y atacar cada día una y otra vez. Gracias al reino de los Chiefs por siempre apoyarme y a todos los que se han acercado y enviado oraciones. Volveré más fuerte que nunca.”
Se cree que Parsons sufrió una rotura del ligamento anterior cruzado en la rodilla izquierda, le dijo el domingo a The Associated Press una persona con conocimiento de la lesión del cazamariscales All-Pro.
La persona habló bajo condición de anonimato porque la gravedad de la lesión no había sido confirmada por pruebas.
“Estoy enfermo”, dijo Parsons a la AP en un mensaje de texto.
La lesión de Parsons es un golpe devastador para los Packers de Green Bay, que perdieron 34-26 ante Denver el domingo para quedar medio juego detrás de los Bears de Chicago, líderes de la NFC Norte.
Parsons estaba a pasos de otra captura cuando de repente se detuvo y cayó al suelo, agarrándose la rodilla izquierda.
Al ser preguntado sobre la posibilidad de que Parsons se haya roto el ligamento anterior cruzado, el entrenador Matt LaFleur respondió: “No se ve bien. Lo dejaré así.”
Con Parsons, los Packers eran contendientes al Super Bowl. Sin él, será mucho más difícil llegar allí. Los Packers enfrentarán a los Bears en un duelo por el primer lugar el sábado por la noche.
“Todos sabemos qué tipo de jugador es y el impacto que ha tenido en nuestro equipo de fútbol y perder a alguien así, es difícil”, dijo LaFleur. “Como dije, nadie va a sentir lástima por nosotros. Tenemos que encontrar una manera y los muchachos tienen que unirse.”
Mahomes y Parsons no solo se perderán el resto de esta temporada, sino que su estado para el inicio de 2026 es incierto. Los jugadores generalmente regresan de lesiones de ligamento cruzado anterior en 9-12 meses.
El corredor Adrian Peterson se rompió el ligamento cruzado anterior y el ligamento colateral medial en su rodilla izquierda el 24 de diciembre de 2011. Estuvo de vuelta en el campo para la semana 1 de la siguiente temporada, corrió para 2.097 yardas en 16 juegos y se convirtió en el último jugador que no es quarterback en ganar el premio MVP de la NFL.
El mariscal de campo Carson Wentz se rompió el ligamento cruzado anterior, el ligamento colateral lateral y sufrió daños en su banda iliotibial y menisco el 17 de diciembre de 2017 y terminó viendo a los Eagles ganar el primer Super Bowl en la historia de la franquicia desde la banca. Regresó a la alineación titular en la semana 3 de la temporada siguiente.
Si Mahomes y Parsons no dañaron otros ligamentos, aumenta la posibilidad de que puedan regresar para el inicio de la temporada 2026.
Independientemente, ambos jugadores estrella tienen una larga y ardua rehabilitación por delante.
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Los escritores de deportes de AP Dave Skretta y Pat Graham contribuyeron a este informe.
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Deportes AP: https://apnews.com/hub/deportes
Se registran 15 nuevas muertes de reclusos en cárcel de Ecuador en un contexto de crisis sanitaria
Associated Press
QUITO (AP) — Al menos 15 presos murieron en la Penitenciaría del Litoral en Ecuador en los últimos cuatro días, informó el lunes el organismo de control de las cárceles, en medio de una crisis sanitaria que afecta a esa prisión, considerada una de las más peligrosas del país andino y con un alto nivel de hacinamiento.
Los nuevo decesos se produjeron luego de que el 19 de noviembre murieran 10 presos diagnosticados con tuberculosis en esa Penitenciaría —ubicada en la ciudad costera de Guayaquil— informó entonces el Servicio Nacional de Atención Integral a Personas Adultas Privadas de Libertad (SNAI). Dos semanas atrás otros siete reclusos fallecieron por diversos problemas de salud.
Las últimas 15 muertes reportadas el lunes por el SNAI se produjeron entre el jueves y domingo, mientras las causas oficiales serán determinadas por medicina legal, añadió el organismo en un comunicado a la prensa.
The Associated Press solicitó información adicional al área de prensa del SNAI y la policía, pero no recibió respuesta de inmediato.
La última cifra oficial publicada por la institución de control carcelario señala que, entre enero y julio 401 presos fueron diagnosticados con tuberculosis en un complejo carcelario que incluye a la Penitenciaría, sin referirse a decesos.
En medio del hermetismo del SNAI, el Comité Permanente de Defensa de Derechos Humanos ha registrado al menos 200 muertes por malas condiciones de salud en los últimos meses en ese complejo carcelario, aunque esa cifra no ha sido reconocida por las autoridades.
La Penitenciaría del Litoral tiene capacidad para 4.519 reclusos pero actualmente alberga a 7.270, de acuerdo con el SNAI, y ha sido escenario de los más violentos enfrentamientos entre reclusos.
Desde inicios de 2024 los militares tomaron el control de las cárceles luego de que el gobierno de Daniel Noboa declaró el conflicto armado interno y desplegó a la fuerza pública dentro y fuera de los recintos carcelarios para combatir a bandas del crimen organizado.
Review: ‘Sherlock Holmes and the Christmas Clowns’ mixes up British detectives for a light holiday mystery
From “Doctor Who” to “Downton Abbey,” fans of British TV have come to expect their favorite shows to air special episodes at Christmas. Similarly, long before the television was a household item, readers of British detective fiction enjoyed Christmas-themed stories about their favorite characters, including Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes, G.K. Chesterton’s Father Brown and Agatha Christie’s Hercule Poirot. Perhaps these trends can be traced back to the Christmas mania of the Victorian era, when the royal family popularized Christmas trees and holiday cards; regardless, the combination of beloved characters and seasonal settings never seems to go out of fashion.
City Lit Theater taps into this tradition with its latest world premiere, “Sherlock Holmes and the Christmas Clowns,” a mashup of Doyle and Chesterton adapted by John Weagly. Based on Chesterton’s 1911 short story “The Flying Stars,” the play replaces Father Brown, a crime-solving Catholic priest, with Holmes, his more famous counterpart in amateur sleuthing. Artistic director Brian Pastor’s production largely captures the vibes of the original, which, in Chesterton’s words, depicts “a Christmas crime, a cheery, cosy, English middle-class crime; a crime of Charles Dickens.”
Viewers hoping for a complex mystery and a dazzling display of Holmes’ deductive prowess will be disappointed by the skimpy plot, which is resolved before it really picks up steam. James Sparling and Adam Bitterman reprise their roles as Holmes and Watson, a duo they have played together at City Lit four times since 2014. Visiting friends in the English countryside on Boxing Day, the detective and his faithful chronicler find themselves spectators at an impromptu pantomime — a silly genre of holiday show that draws on commedia dell’arte and music hall influences. Amid the slapstick comedy, a trio of precious jewels goes missing, and the game is afoot for Holmes.
As a reader of the entire Sherlock Holmes and Father Brown canons, I think it would be difficult to swap one detective for another in most of the published stories, and this is especially true for “The Flying Stars.” Using different investigative methods from the cerebral Holmes, Brown generally relies on his empathy, unassuming persona and the deep knowledge of human nature that he has gained through his clerical vocation. And in this particular Chesterton story, the climax hinges on a distinctly pastoral approach from the priest.
Aside from replacing Brown with Holmes, Weagly’s script closely adheres to the source material, which doesn’t leave much space for Holmes’ signature qualities to shine. In an early exchange with Lady Gabriella (Betsy Pennington-Taylor), owner of the stolen jewels, Holmes goes on one of his verbal sprees, showing off his observational skills by identifying, with ridiculous specificity, the provenance of each silk and fur worn by the rich woman. But this crowd-pleasing bit proves to be a one-off.
Still, the play offers more Holmesian fan service by referencing his previous cases (some from Doyle, some imagined by Weagly) and highlighting his oblivion to certain social norms (a hint of Benedict Cumberbatch’s seemingly neurodivergent Holmes, here). Wearing period costumes by kClare McKellaston, both Holmes and Watson look the parts as they live in the popular imagination — complete with tweed, deerstalker and pipe.
Manny Sevilla, Courtney Abbott and cast in “Sherlock Holmes and the Christmas Clowns” by City Lit Theater. (Steven Townsend)
The cast also includes Mark Mendelsohn as party host Colonel Adams and Sophia Vitello as his daughter, Ruby; Manny Sevilla as John Crook, the socialist journalist from next door who’s in love with Ruby, and Courtney Abbott as Jemma Blount, the colonel’s Canadian relation. Maggie Cain, David Fink, Alex George and Bruce Holtman form the chorus, a merry quartet that sings carols, comments on the action and plays supporting roles.
While the show is light on plot, the ensemble plays up the comedic elements, including the physical antics of the pantomime scene. Pennington-Taylor stands out as Lady Gabriella, Ruby’s godmother, whose new-money airs show in her exaggerated accent, flamboyant accessories and flair for flirtation (directed, amusingly, at Holmes).
Though I would have liked more opportunity to see Sparling’s Holmes and Bitterman’s Watson in action, “Sherlock Holmes and the Christmas Clowns” fits the bill for lighthearted holiday cheer. If cozy mysteries are your jam, this is about as cozy as they come, with low stakes, very little violence and a wholesome ending.
Emily McClanathan is a freelance critic.
Review: “Sherlock Holmes and the Christmas Clowns” (2.5 stars)
When: Through Jan. 4, 2026
Where: City Lit Theater at Edgewater Presbyterian Church, 1020 W Bryn Mawr
Running time: 1 hour
Tickets: $28 at 773-293-3682 and citylit.org
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/12/15/review-sherlock-holmes-christmas/
Chicago weather: After deep freeze, warmer temperatures — possibly until New Year’s — on the way
Chicago is expected to thaw out this week after hitting sub-zero temperatures Sunday.
Warmer temperatures are expected to climb into the mid-30s Tuesday and mid-40s Thursday, according to the National Weather Service. Although a cold front is predicted Thursday night with temperatures back in the low-teens and a chance of wet snow, warmer-than-average weather is expected to return for most of this weekend and last until New Year’s.
“We’re kind of changing the weather pattern here for the last part of December,” said Kevin Birk, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service. “It looks like we’re actually going to end up above normal for temperatures here through Christmas, and possibly even through New Year’s.”
After Thanksgiving, Chicago saw record-breaking snowfall and racked-up over 17 inches of snow this season, which is tracked from July through June. This weekend Chicagoans braced themselves for “bitterly cold” temperatures and warming centers were made available across the city. As the Chicago Bears kicked off against the Cleveland Browns Sunday—scoring a 31-3 win— sub-zero temperatures made it one of the coldest games in the team’s history.
“We love this. This is Bear weather,” second-year quarterback Caleb Williams told his teammates before kickoff in a video posted to the team’s account on X, formerly Twitter.
Yet, at least for the near future, Chicago’s “Bear weather” may go into hibernation.
“It doesn’t look like we’ll be in the deep freeze, at least persistently, for the next week or so,” Birk said.
Roller-coaster temperatures like the one expected this week with bouts of warm and cold are not uncommon for this time of year either.
“After you get into a period of deep cold, when you start to come out of it, you warm up,” said Birk. “Then you jam another system that brings in a little bit of cold for a brief period of time before you start to warm up again.”
Chicago has experienced what the weather service dubbed the “quickest start to winter” since 1978 after unusually high snowfalls in recent weeks.
More weather news
Chicago weather: How our 2025-26 seasonal snowfall compares with previous years
Chicago’s winter parking ban goes into effect Dec 1. Here’s what to know — snow or no snow.
Chicago weather: What’s normal for fall’s first freeze and first snow? And when does it happen?
Early December snow breaks record in Chicago, National Weather Service says
Christmas tree lots in Chicago prepare for heavy snow and customers: ‘When it snows, they feel more Christmasy’
What to know about Southwest Airlines’ new boarding process
The famous numbered metal stanchions that for decades defined Southwest Airlines’ unique boarding process are coming down as the Dallas-based carrier laid out the final plans for a new boarding process for the beginning of assigned seating next year.
The columns, which helped travelers find their place in line during boarding, will be replaced by digital screen displays at gates where screens are already installed starting Jan. 27, Southwest said. That’s the same day the airline will begin assigned seating.
Gate areas will be reconfigured in a phase approach beginning on the evening of Jan. 26, the airline said, adding that removing the columns from all airports will take about 60 days. Columns that are not removed on Jan. 26 will have their numbers removed or covered so that they’re not visible the following morning.
Southwest is headquartered at Dallas Love Field, where it operates 18 of the airport’s 20 gates.
The changes to airport gate areas is one of several Southwest is planning to deploy come next year, as it reconfigures the boarding process to match U.S. competitors like United Airlines, Delta Air Lines and American Airlines, which is headquartered in Fort Worth.
The monumental change is part of a new business strategy that Southwest hopes will lead to improved profit margins. The airline reported a profit in this year’s third-quarter earnings.
Southwest said the new boarding process aims to “maintain an efficient and orderly boarding approach that’s optimized for assigned seating.”
Here is what you need to know about the next era of Southwest boarding:
How many boarding lanes will there be?
There will be two alternating boarding lanes with the digital screen displays, Southwest said. There will be a separate preboarding and priority boarding area for customers who are active-duty military, purchase the new priority boarding product 24 hours before departure and others who need to preboard.
Passengers in need of special accommodations will be able to digitally self-declare that prior to their day of travel. Special service requests, like wheelchair assistance, will be visible on boarding passes.
How many boarding groups will there be?
There will be eight boarding groups, according to Southwest.
How will boarding groups be determined?
Boarding groups will be determined by seat location, the type of fare purchased, tier status and Rapid Rewards Credit Card benefits, Southwest said. Fare, tier and Rapid Rewards cardmember benefits will be afforded to up to eight passengers on the same reservation.
Which travelers are included in each boarding group?
Southwest provided the following breakdown of what passengers will be assigned to each boarding group:
—Groups 1-2: A-list preferred, Choice Extra fare, and Extra legroom purchase or upgrade customers
—Groups 3-5: A-list and Choice Preferred fare. Rapid Rewards Credit Card members who did not receive an earlier boarding group will board in Group 5.
—Groups 6-8: Choice fare and Basic fare customers who did not receive an earlier boarding group
How will I know my boarding group?
Your boarding group will be shown on “newly designed boarding passes,” according to Southwest. The boarding pass will also show seating assignments, which is similar to the design of other airlines’ boarding passes.
How will Southwest assign boarding groups for families or large groups?
All passengers on a reservation of nine or fewer people, including families, will be assigned the same boarding group, Southwest said.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/12/15/southwest-airlines-new-boarding-process-2/
Warsh Overtakes Hassett As Fed Chair Favorite
Warsh Overtakes Hassett As Fed Chair Favorite
“I think the two Kevins are great,” said Trump on Friday, but this weekend has prompted a rather violent shift from one Kevin (Hassett) to the other Kevn (Warsh) who has now become the prediction market’s favorite to replace Powell…
CNBC reports that Kevin Hassett’s candidacy for the Federal Reserve chair, once seen by the market as almost a sure thing, has received some pushback by high-level people who have the ear of President Trump, according to sources familiar with the matter.
There’s concern that the National Economic Council director is too close to the president, the sources said, something that ironically made him the frontrunner to replace current chair Jerome Powell in the first place.
After telling reporters that he knew who he was going to pick for Fed chair, Trump surprised investors Friday when he told the Wall Street Journal in an interview that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh had moved to the top of the Fed candidates list alongside Hassett.
CNBC notes that as December wore on, according to several sources, Hassett’s candidacy received some resistance, with worries growing that the bond market could revolt over time if it sees him as too much in the pocket of Trump. That view could end up having the opposite effect Trump wants, with long-term yields eventually rising on concern Hassett wouldn’t do enough to contain inflation should it ever rebound down the road.
Perhaps in response to some of this criticism, Hassett was more firm on the question of Fed independence in an interview with CBS News this past weekend.
Trump “has very strong and well-founded views about what we ought to do. But in the end, the job of the Fed is to be independent and to work with the group of people that are on the Board of Governors, at the FOMC, to drive a group consensus on where interest rates should be,” said Hassett on “Face the Nation,” according to a transcript.
“No, no, he would have no weight,” Hassett said when asked whether Trump’s opinions would have equal standing with members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s rate-setting body.
“It’s just his opinion matters if it’s good … if it’s based on data, and then if you go to the committee and you say, ‘Well, the president made this argument, and that’s a really sound argument, I think, what do you think?’ If they reject it, then they’ll vote in a different way.”
Hassett, who currently serves as director of the White House National Economic Council, said he speaks with Trump frequently about economic issues and would continue to do so if he were appointed to lead the central bank.
“I think he has very strong and well-founded views about what we ought to do,“ Hassett said of Trump.
”But in the end, the job of the Fed is to be independent and to work with the group of people that are on the Board of Governors, at the FOMC, to drive a group consensus on where interest rates should be.”
Hassett said that while the Fed chair would offer guidance to the FOMC during interest rate deliberations, “in the end, it’s a committee that votes.”
Trump told the Journal that the next Fed chair should consult with him on interest rates, though he acknowledged that the central bank chief should not simply follow the president’s orders.
“I’m a smart voice and should be listened to,” Trump said, citing his business experience and financial success.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 12/15/2025 – 12:05
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/warsh-overtakes-hassett-fed-chair-favorite
Roomba maker iRobot files for bankruptcy protection; will be taken private under restructuring
Roomba maker iRobot has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, but says that it doesn’t expect any disruptions to devices as the more than 30-year-old company is taken private under a restructuring process.
IRobot, which became well known for its robotic vacuums, has struggled of late, dealing with increased competition, layoffs and a declining stock price. In 2022 Amazon announced that it had agreed to buy iRobot for about $1.7 billion, but that deal was called off last year. Amazon blamed “undue and disproportionate regulatory hurdles” after the European Union signaled its objection to the transaction.
Amazon said at the time that it would pay iRobot a previously agreed termination fee of $94 million and iRobot said that it would undergo a restructuring to help stabilize the company.
iRobot said Sunday that it is now being acquired by Picea through a court-supervised process. Picea, or Shenzhen PICEA Robotics Co., Ltd., is iRobot’s primary contract manufacturer.. With facilities in China and Vietnam, Picea has built and sold more than 20 million robotic vacuum cleaners.
“The transaction will strengthen our financial position and will help deliver continuity for our consumers, customers, and partners,” iRobot CEO Gary Cohen said in a statement.
iRobot said it will continue to operate as normal during the Chapter 11 process and doesn’t expect any disruption to its app functionality, customer programs, global partners, supply chain relationships, or ongoing product support.
The Bedford, Massachusetts-based anticipates completing the prepackaged chapter 11 process by February.
In premarket trading, iRobot shares slid nearly 70% to $1.31.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/12/15/roomba-maker-irobot-bankruptcy/
Merriam-Webster’s 2025 word of the year is ‘slop’
Creepy, zany and demonstrably fake content is often called “slop.” The word’s proliferation online, in part thanks to the widespread availability of generative artificial intelligence, landed it Merriam-Webster’s 2025 word of the year.
“It’s such an illustrative word,” said Greg Barlow, Merriam-Webster’s president, in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press ahead of Monday’s announcement. “It’s part of a transformative technology, AI, and it’s something that people have found fascinating, annoying and a little bit ridiculous.”
“Slop” was first used in the 1700s to mean soft mud, but it evolved more generally to mean something of little value. The definition has since expanded to mean “digital content of low quality that is produced usually in quantity by means of artificial intelligence.”
In other words, “you know, absurd videos, weird advertising images, cheesy propaganda, fake news that looks real, junky AI-written digital books,” Barlow said.
AI video generators like Sora have wowed with their ability to quickly create realistic clips based merely on text prompts. But a flood of these images on social media, including clips depicting celebrities and deceased public figures, has raised worries about misinformation, deepfakes and copyright.
Such content has existed online for years, but the tools are more accessible now — and used to political ends by, among other figures, the head of the Pentagon. Last month, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted a manipulated image of a beloved cartoon turtle, reimagined as a grenade-wielding fighter, to defend U.S. military actions in Venezuela.
The Canadian animated show “Franklin” teaches preschoolers about kindness, empathy and inclusivity — but in Hegseth’s hands, its 6-year-old main character became a tool to promote violence.
The word “slop” evokes unpleasant images of mud-caked pigs crowding around a dirty trough, or perhaps a bucket of steaming, fetid stew. Or AI amalgamations of algorithmic biases laden with offensive or nonsensical imagery.
For some, the word induces dread.
But to Barlow, it brings a sense of hope. The dictionary’s president says the spike in searches for the word reflects that people have grown more aware of fake or shoddy content, and desire the inverse.
“They want things that are real, they want things that are genuine,” he said. “It’s almost a defiant word when it comes to AI. When it comes to replacing human creativity, sometimes AI actually doesn’t seem so intelligent.”
To select the word of the year, the dictionary’s editors review data about which words have risen in search results and usage. Then they come to a consensus about which word best reflects the span of the year.
“We like to think that we are a mirror for people,” Barlow said.
Over the years, there are words that are consistently looked up, but they’re filtered out as the dictionary’s editors pick the one that best defines the year at hand.
“Words like ‘ubiquitous,’ ‘paradigm,’ ‘albeit,’ ‘irregardless,’ these are always top lookups because they’re words that are on the edge of our lexicon,” Barlow said. “’Irregardless’ is a word in the dictionary for one reason: It’s used. It’s been used for decades to mean ‘regardless.’”
The dictionary has selected one word every year since 2003 to capture and make sense of the current moment. Last year, shortly after the U.S. presidential election and amid the shifting national mood, Merriam-Webster chose the word “ polarization.”
A fresh edition came out last month that adds over 5,000 new words — a rare step that involves fully revising and reimagining one of its most popular dictionaries.
Rounding out Merriam-Webster’s top words of 2025:
6-7
The viral term exploded in popularity over the summer. It’s an inside joke with an unclear meaning, driven by social media. It can be traced back to rapper Skrilla’s 2024 song “Doot Doot (6 7).”
“It’s self-referential,” Barlow said. “It’s all the rage, but it’s not a defining term.”
Performative
The “performative male” is online shorthand for a disingenuous guy who pretends to like things women like in order to earn their trust. There’s also a spate of influencers who’ve been called performative for posting surface-level “ kindness content.” The word is versatile, since it extends to stunts in national politics, grandstanding on social media and even the nature of the UN General Assembly.
Gerrymander
There’s a long national history of partisan gerrymandering in the U.S. To retain Republican control of Congress, President Donald Trump has urged maps to be redrawn before the 2026 midterm elections. That’s led to GOP moves in Texas and Indiana to draw districts to their advantage, as well as a counter effort in Democrat-led California.
Touch grass
The definition of this popular internet phrase is “to participate in normal activities in the real world especially as opposed to online experiences and interactions.” It was a serious contender for Merriam-Webster’s word of the year, since it’s used to “describe the aspiration for many people to take a break from their digital addiction,” Barlow said.
Conclave
A conclave is the centuries-old election of a pope that derives its name from the Italian “con clave” — meaning “with a key” — to underscore that cardinals are sequestered until they find a winner.
Some learned the meaning from the titular film in 2024. Others found out in real time when Pope Leo XIV became history’s first American pope in May 2025. “It was so event specific, but the spike (in searches) was huge,” Barlow said.
Tariffs
Originally from Italian and Arabic for “free of charge,” the word entered English centuries ago. The definition is “a schedule of duties imposed by a government on imported or in some countries exported goods.”
Trump boasts that his tariffs protect American industries, lure factories to the U.S., raise money for the federal government and give him diplomatic leverage. But they’ve sparked a trade war and in reality account for less than 4% of federal revenue. The tariffs have also done little to dent the federal budget deficit — a staggering $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2025.
Lake Chargoggagoggmanchauggagoggchaubunagungamaugg
Yes, you read that correctly. “The name of this lake delighted and baffled us when it started clogging the Top Lookups list on Merriam-Webster.com,” the dictionary’s editors said. In the Roblox game Spelling Bee!, the Massachusetts lake’s name can be encountered in special modes. But in New England? It’s known as Webster Lake.
Which words defined the last 10 years, according to Merriam-Webster?
1. 2024: polarization 2. 2023: authentic 3. 2022: gaslighting 4. 2021: vaccine 5. 2020: pandemic 6. 2019: they 7. 2018: justice 8. 2017: feminism 9. 2016: surreal 10. 2015: ism
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/12/15/merriam-webster-2025-slop/
Community news: Morton Arboretum Tree Lights, Franklin Park clothing drive, more
Tree Lights at the Morton Arboretum continues through Jan. 3
What better way to break up a cold winter evening than with millions of lights featured at Illumination: Tree LIghts at the Morton Arboretum? It continues from 4:30 to 9:30 p.m. through Jan. 3.
Light, color and recorded music transform the arboretum’s trees into a festival display. Participants view the lights from a fully accessible trail that winds through the arboretum’s tree-filled landscapes and gardens at 4100 Ill. 53 in Lisle.
New this year are four colorful animal sculptures from the facility’s newest exhibit, Vivid Creatures, by artists Fez BeGaetz and Heather BeGaetz. Hot chocolate and hot cider, water and alcoholic beverages, as well as sweet treats, will be sold in tents set up along the trail.
Arboretum members save 20% on tickets. Prices vary depending on the date and how far in advance tickets are bought. Children 3 and younger are admitted free. The display will be closed Dec. 24 and 25. Parking is free. Tickets are at mortonarb.org or 630-968-0074.
Franklin Park library seeks clothing, toiletries
The Franklin Park Public Library is accepting donations of toiletries and winter clothing for American Legion Post 974’s Stand Down 2026.
Items will be taken until early 2026 at the Patron Services desk at the library, 10311 Grand Ave. in Franklin Park.
Winter items include hats, mittens, blankets, scarves, jackets and sweaters. New and unopened toiletries needed are lotion, facial tissue packets, soap, bath gels, hand sanitizer, shampoo, antiseptic wipes, toothbrushes and toothpaste, lip balm, feminine products and baby wipes.
Details are at 847-455-6016, ext. 1, or by emailing ps@fppld.org.
Elmhurst plans candy cane hunt
The Elmhurst Park District invites children 3 to 8 years old to a candy cane-filled morning Dec. 20 at Kies Recreation Center, 155 E. St. Charles Road. Two sessions are planned, 10 to 11 a.m. and 11:30 to 12:30 p.m.
Activities include an outdoor candy cane hunt, indoor crafts and story time. Dress to be outside. Registration is required at the park district website, www.epd.org, or by calling 630993-8900.
Sing along to classic holiday music in La Grange
Fans of Handel’s “Messiah” can join a sing-along version at 3 p.m. Dec. 21 at Emmanuel Episcopal Church of La Grange, 203 S. Kensington Ave. in La Grange.
Mary Hopper will conduct the performance, which features musicians, soloists and the audience, which acts as the chorus. Everyone is welcome.
The event is presented by Friends of Casavant 3062. Admission is $30. Purchase tickets online at emmanuel-lagrange.org.
Youth garden club meets in Burr Ridge
Winter Solstice Celebration is offered from 3 to 4 p.m. Dec. 20 at Studio B Art, 302 Burr Ridge Parkway in Burr Ridge.
The DGC Sprouts youth garden club, sponsored by the Darien Garden Club, will learn about changing seasons, astronomy for this time of year and make a lantern. Space is limited, and adults must attend with their children. Register at Eventbrite or call 630-601-6755.
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