The Chicago Bears ended the regular season as they began it, losing two straight games — with the second coming against Ben Johnson’s former team, the Detroit Lions.
If Johnson can get his team to respond as it did from an 0-2 start to the season, it could be an exciting adventure through the postseason. If not, it could be a quick exit for a team that seemingly has a growing list of questions now that the playoffs are here.
The Bears face the rival Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round at 7 p.m. Saturday at Soldier Field in a game that will be broadcast by Amazon’s Prime Video.
The Bears beat the odds in a big way to even be here, rolling off nine wins in their next 10 games following the 0-2 start en route to the franchise’s first NFC North crown since 2018. They backed into the No. 2 seed in the NFC on Sunday after losing to the Lions 19-16 on Jake Bates’ 42-yard field goal as time expired because the Philadelphia Eagles, who sat nearly all of their marquee players, lost to the Washington Commanders with coach Nick Sirianni prioritizing rest for the defending Super Bowl champions over a battle for the No. 2 seed.
The Bears’ 11-6 season and worst-to-first turnaround has been a success that has reaffirmed the organization’s decision to hire Johnson and thrilled a fan base that weathered so much losing and hasn’t seen a playoff victory since Jan. 16, 2011.
But it’s on to the playoffs. Here are 10 thoughts after Sunday’s disappointment with a forward look ahead and one statistic that will really open your eyes.
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1. The Bears backed into the No. 2 seed. There’s no way around that.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams walks through the tunnel as players are introduced before a game against the Lions at Soldier Field on Jan. 4, 2026. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
They’re going to have to flip the page quickly to be ready for an opponent they know well and have faced twice in the previous five weeks.
There are a couple of significant issues facing the Bears right now, but the Packers have their own issues, having lost four consecutive games. They rested their key players in Sunday’s loss at Minnesota as Green Bay (9-7-1) was already locked into the No. 7 seed. But their run defense is a major question mark.
The Bears are struggling to get off the field and can’t seem to get started early in games, things coach Ben Johnson and his staff are going to try to figure out on the fly.
“We’ve got to play better going forward,” Johnson said. “We’ve got to coach better going forward as well. We’re turning the page, though. We’ve got the No. 2 seed. We’ve got a home game next week and we’ve got a new season on the horizon. Our guys should be reinvigorated by that. I know I certainly am. I’m looking forward to the opportunity and all that that entails.”
I don’t see any way the Bears find a sudden cure for their issues on defense where they lack a pass rush, are giving up too many big plays and are having a tough go of it on third down. Where they have had success throughout the season is on offense, but all of a sudden that’s a major stumbling block in the first half.
The first half has been a real mess for the Bears on offense in four of the last five games. Removing the Week 15 win over the Cleveland Browns (5-12) from the study and look at the four games, which includes both meetings with the Packers:
Week 14 at Green Bay: Trailed 14-3 at halftime
Week 16 vs. Green Bay: Trailed 6-0 at halftime
Week 17 at San Francisco: Trailed 28-21 at halftime
Week 18 vs. Green Bay: Trailed 13-0 at halftime
The Bears were within a score of the 49ers at halftime because linebacker T.J. Edwards opened the game with an interception return for a touchdown. Otherwise, they would have been really chasing in that game.
Here are some first-half numbers from the four games:
Third down: 3 for 19
Total yards: 420
Total plays: 87
Time of possession: 42:11
Opponents’ total yards: 952
Opponents’ total plays: 158
Opponents’ time of possession: 77:49
The Lions jumped out to a 13-0 lead on Sunday and the game was only that close because Lions coach Dan Campbell didn’t do a very good job dialing up plays in the red zone.
“A little flat start,” right guard Jonah Jackson said. “Not a little flat start. A really flat start. We kept the defense on the field for longer than they should have been.”
All of these numbers really jump out, but the biggest is the failure on third down. When the offense cannot stay on the field, it keeps putting the defense, which has its own issues, right back out there.
Asked if there was an identifiable reason for the slow start this time against a Lions team that had only pride to play for, Johnson didn’t have one right away.
“That’s a great question,” he said. “That’s one we’ll have to take a look at the tape and figure out why that was. I didn’t feel like it was one of our more elaborate plans. I felt it was one of our simpler plans. We need to do a better job of executing it and coaching it up.”
Bears coach Ben Johnson walks along the bench in the second quarter against the Lions at Soldier Field on Jan. 4, 2026. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
As it was, the Bears had a shot in this game late until they punted. They got to the 2-yard line on the final play the week before at San Francisco. They pulled off a comeback for the ages against the Packers in Week 16 and they nearly rallied at Lambeau Field in Week 14.
So, they’ve found ways to punch their way back into all of these games. But I’m not sure they can count on pitching a shutout against the Packers in the red zone this time around with quarterback Jordan Love out of concussion protocol. Playing from behind will be a dangerous path in the playoffs.
“Don’t know exactly,” said quarterback Caleb Williams, who got going a little bit in the second half when he threw touchdown passes to tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Jahdae Walker. “We’ve got to go back and watch. We came out a little flat and I think we’ve got to work on having urgency from the jump and get that going.”
On a short week, it’s going to be even more imperative for the Bears to make corrections on the fly and turn all of their attention to a rubber match with the Packers, one that only elevates the NFL’s most storied rivalry.
“That’s the name of the game here,” Johnson said. “We’re quickly transitioning. We’re locked in. The stakes are a lot higher here going forward. We can’t afford to have a phase, one of our three phases, play like we did today. So we’re going to have to pick it up. Like I said, I get fired up just thinking about it right now, and I know our guys too.”
2. The Bears were hoping to get a response from their defense a week after the 49ers hung 42 points on them — and this can’t be what anyone was thinking about.
Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs gains some yards as Bears defensive end Montez Sweat pursues in the second quarter at Soldier Field on Jan. 4, 2026. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
For the second straight week, an opposing quarterback picked apart the defense in the middle of the field with Lions receivers running away from defensive backs all night.
Jared Goff completed 27 of 42 passes for 331 yards and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose status for the game was questionable as he was dealing with nagging knee and ankle injuries, sure looked 100% as he was targeted 15 times, catching 11 passes for 139 yards. The Bears were seemingly in trail technique every time Jameson Williams caught the ball, too, as he had six receptions for 74 yards.
The Bears wound up with three sacks, but one came on an ill-advised play where Dan Campbell wanted David Montgomery to throw a pass to Goff on third-and-1 from the Bears’ 41-yard line early in the fourth quarter. Really?
Free safety Kevin Byard III made his seventh interception of the season, tops in the NFL, when linebacker T.J. Edwards deflected a pass deep down the middle for St. Brown in the fourth quarter. But the takeaways have started to dry up for the Bears. They’ve got seven in their last five games but three were interceptions of Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders in Week 15 and the Bears will not see him in the postseason.
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Nickel cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson left the game in the fourth quarter with a concussion and he looked to be in a rough way. He wasn’t moving in a straight line toward the Bears sideline. The hope is that Kyler Gordon will return from injured reserve for the second time this season. He’s missed the last four games with a groin injury that flared up before the Week 14 game at Lambeau Field.
How much can the Bears get out of Gordon, who has appeared in only three games and played only 117 snaps? Hopefully a lot because they need a spark.
Cornerback Nahshon Wright, who had a rough go of it against the 49ers, had another tough night as the Lions went at him and Gardner-Johnson routinely. They also had success having players run crossers — away from Jaylon Johnson — and he struggled to keep up.
It’s possible the Bears could consider using Tyrique Stevenson in place of Wright. I don’t know, and the coaches probably have not gotten that deep into their planning for the Packers just yet. There just are not a ton of buttons that defensive coordinator Dennis Allen can push at this point. The blitz wasn’t very effective against Goff, who was able to exploit it for too many big plays.
Maybe the Bears can get the pass rush going a little bit against Green Bay. They’ve got to get Jordan Love off his spot because if he has time to sit in the pocket, he can be lethal. I asked Austin Booker, who knocked Love out of the last meeting with a concussion, if the Bears could take the pass rush up another notch in the postseason.
“I think that can help out but …” he said.
But. That’s just it. It hasn’t really happened all season. The Bears still left Soldier Field with confidence on Sunday.
“I think we all know we can beat them next week,” Booker said. “We did last time and then just all-around confidence in our team and what we’ve got going.”
We’ll have to see. Things have been sliding in the wrong direction for the defense for a few weeks now and they aren’t going to be able to feast on any overmatched quarterbacks in the playoffs.
3. Try pinpointing a moment when the feeling was born inside Halas Hall that a turnaround was possible — a legitimate move to pull the organization out of the muck it had been in for a good decade and a half — and the answer is delivered swiftly and succinctly.
General manager Ryan Poles poses with new Bears coach Ben Johnson on Jan. 22, 2025, at Halas Hall. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)
“The day Ben Johnson was hired,” one person said.
Internally, that feeling hovered somewhere between belief and hope. The Bears made the hiring with complete conviction. Remember, Johnson received the job without an in-person interview. The team didn’t require one after a virtual meeting, and Johnson’s camp held all the leverage once the Lions were bounced from the divisional round of the playoffs.
Johnson impressed the Bears when the first words he said during the two-hour virtual meeting were: “I want this job.” There were natural questions that every first-time head coach must answer.
Could he manage an entire roster?
What kind of staff would he assemble, and would he be able to empower others and delegate authority?
How could he adapt an offensive system for Caleb Williams?
How would he handle adversity?
As far as building a staff, Johnson brought wide receivers coach/assistant head coach Antwaan Randle El and quarterbacks coach J.T. Barrett with him from Detroit. After that he branched out, relying on a network with Lions coach Dan Campbell to hire some folks Campbell worked with previously in New Orleans. That led Johnson to defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, offensive coordinator Declan Doyle and offensive line coach Dan Roushar.
When Johnson completed the process, he had a staff from a variety of backgrounds that, on paper anyway, looked impressive. First-time coaches can struggle to build a staff, especially on the other side of the ball. It’s something Lovie Smith stumbled with when the Bears first hired him, and ultimately a lack of stability in his offensive coaching staff led to his downfall.
Who does what in the Chicago Bears organization? Here’s a breakdown.
When the coaches got together, they thought there might be a chance to build something quickly with the roster general manager Ryan Poles had in place.
“Early on in the offseason, you’re always trying to figure out where you are and you never know because you haven’t played a game,” passing game coordinator Press Taylor said. “I remember us having conversations about what we thought we could do, and we felt like we had the pieces to be good.
“You kind of look around and every position had a couple of guys, and without knowing who could do what or what we were capable of handling mentally, you saw talent. So it was, OK, if we can figure out how to utilize it the right way, we felt like we had the pieces to make some noise.”
At the same time, Johnson was pressing his new hires for ideas as they built out the playbooks.
“That was the fun part,” Taylor said. “Obviously Ben had worked with (Randle El and Barrett), but the rest of us were learning everything from scratch. And then Ben kind of gave everyone some freedom: ‘I don’t want it to look exactly like it looked in Detroit. I want to grow and I want to evolve to our personnel and what we all know and what we’re capable of building this thing to be.’
“So we’re trying to figure out what it is he expects of everybody, then we’re trying to add pieces to it.”
Johnson and the staff pressed the players from the outset of the offseason program when the Bears first got on the grass. They stripped things down to the fundamentals. They flooded the players with information to see what they could handle and exposed them to as much as possible. But with fundamentals — basic stuff that wasn’t working — they stopped and corrected, unlike the previous coaching staff.
Bears head coach Ben Johnson speaks after practice on May 28, 2025, at Halas Hall. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)
It wasn’t pretty through much of training camp and even part of the preseason, especially on offense. But the Bears still were trying to dial in on exactly what they wanted to become. Remember, Johnson even talked early in training camp about wanting to find out specifically what kind of blocking scheme would be best for the running game instead of dictating a direction.
The messaging was consistent throughout the offseason and once camp got going. It remained that way after the Bears blew the opener against the Minnesota Vikings and were bombed 52-21 the following week in Detroit.
“Here we go again” trepidation quickly formed outside the building, but inside no one blinked. As lopsided as the loss to the Lions was, Williams showed improvements to spark a little optimism internally and Johnson stayed the course. No panic, just an assessment of where the team was.
“I think our practice habits are yet to reflect a championship-caliber team,” Johnson said three days after the loss to the Lions.
Those habits improved and the Bears caught fire, winning nine of their next 10 games, showing time and again they could navigate tense, late-game moments. As they stacked victories and as belief and confidence grew, Johnson did what every coach talks about but not all accomplish — he kept the locker room and the building on the task at hand.
That’s one thing the organization as a whole failed at a year ago, when the Bears carried a three-game winning streak out of the bye and took a 4-2 record to Washington only to lose on a Hail Mary, the start of a franchise-record 10-game skid. As one source described before the game started, staff members were out over their skis with the team’s modest success on bus rides in Washington.
“The fun part about this year has been nobody has ever looked ahead,” Taylor said. “It’s always kind of been, we show up on Monday, we put the game to bed and we move forward. What are we going to do this week? That’s kind of been the beauty of it. You just put your head down and go to work and we’ll take care of this week.”
That’s essential because it’s not uncommon for demoralizing losses to bleed into Wednesdays, the first day of practice. But the Bears walked the walk after both success and setbacks, and that’s a credit to Johnson.
Williams’ development took off, too. A Week 7 showing against the New Orleans Saints — he was 15 of 26 for 172 yards with one interception — frustrated the coaching staff. Two weeks later, he passed for 280 yards and three touchdowns in Cincinnati, and he has improved gradually through the second half of the season, especially in the gotta-have-it moments of the fourth quarter.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams walks to the locker room wearing Ben Johnson’s high school jersey before playing the Lions at Soldier Field on Jan. 4, 2026. (Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune)
At the core of Williams’ ascent?
“Constant meetings, the constant communication, (Johnson’s) consistency and who he is,” Williams said. “He wasn’t on one day and off the next or all-in one week and off. That’s who he’s been. That’s how he’s going to be. When you can sit back and realize that’s who somebody is, the respect, the trust and the loyalty grows.
“Then you go out there on the field and what he’s saying works and the plays work and the alignments and the assignments, they work. Then that trust and loyalty starts to grow. You build more of that and the bond and all that starts to grow a lot more.”
Perhaps you’ll disagree on the next point, but the rebuild Johnson is leading, with a lot of momentum entering the postseason, is about one-third complete. His first year was about changing the culture and providing hope internally, showing players — especially those who have been around a while — that, yes, light is at the end of the tunnel. Johnson checked that box before the season ended.
But the rebuild will carry into the offseason. Just listen to Johnson almost any week. What is an underlying point he makes after victory or defeat? We can be so much better.
Johnson won’t lose sight of the fact that at least a half-dozen games could have gone the other way. An unforced fumble at Washington with 3:07 remaining, a blocked field goal with 33 seconds left in Las Vegas, a recovered onside kick against the Green Bay Packers. Those are huge plays that swung three games and are exceedingly difficult to replicate.
Especially after Johnson has no doubt secured more power within Halas Hall, he’s unlikely to fall into the kind of trap that can catch some teams coming off huge turnarounds. The last thing I’d expect to go through his mind is the idea that “we’re further along than we thought we’d be.”
That’s the beauty of Johnson and why I’d prepare for the idea he will be a driving force behind an aggressive offseason. He possesses a clear vision of what sustained excellence looks like, and the Bears aren’t there. He knows that’s something measured by more than one 17-game season, as rejuvenating as it has been for the fan base.
There’s a lot the Bears want to accomplish — and an opportunity to chase dreams in the postseason. But at the conclusion of the regular season, it’s important to note Johnson is unlikely to allow the record and Year 1 success to detour him. The Bears are trying to build something like the Kansas City Chiefs have and, before them, the New England Patriots.
“Ben is never (expletive) satisfied,” one source said.
It’s something the Bears began to learn the day he was hired.
4. How significant was securing the No. 2 seed for the Bears? Perhaps more than you can imagine when considering one statistical nugget.
Bears safety Jonathan Owens tries to get the crowd pumped up in the fourth quarter against the Lions at Soldier Field on Jan. 4, 2026. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
The 11 starting quarterbacks in the playoffs with postseason experience have combined for a total of seven road playoff victories. Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers owns five of those.
That’s right. The 10 quarterbacks with playoff experience not named Rodgers are 2-21 in road playoff games, which does not include the Super Bowl, a neutral-site game.
It’s hard to go on the road in the playoffs and win, but I didn’t think it was that difficult. I ran through the numbers twice to make sure it wasn’t a mistake and I hadn’t missed a win or two.
The 42-year-old Rodgers, who threw for 294 yards and a touchdown Sunday in a 26-24 win over the Baltimore Ravens to claim the AFC North, is 5-6 on the road in the playoffs in his career. As a division winner, Pittsburgh will open the playoffs at home, but I thought the road record of the existing quarterbacks was really notable, especially with the Bears as a No. 2 seed.
Rodgers, whose list of road playoff victories includes a triumph over the Bears in the NFC championship game at Soldier Field after the 2010 season, hasn’t won as a visitor since a divisional-round victory against the Dallas Cowboys on Jan. 15, 2017 — more than three months before the Bears drafted Mitch Trubisky.
When I texted a handful of folks around the league to measure their expectations, most guessed the winning percentage for road quarterbacks in this subset was somewhere between 25% and 35%. No. Try 20.6% for the crop of starting QBs in this year’s field. That figure is propped up in a big way by Rodgers.
“I wouldn’t have thought of that,” Bears passing game coordinator Press Taylor said when presented with the numbers. “That’s wild. It’s tough.”
“Wow,” said an assistant GM for another team. “No question home-field advantage really matters in the playoffs, especially at a place where it is a true advantage with the crowd and the elements.
“Is Jacksonville home-field advantage? I don’t know. Those football cities like Chicago, that’s an advantage. Seattle is another place with an advantage. In Denver, it gets loud and there’s the altitude. That’s an advantage. That’s a big stat. Send that research to me.”
It’s one reason a third source expressed surprise that Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni basically punted on battling for the No. 2 seed in Week 18. They rested key starters in their regular-season finale against the Washington Commanders.
“It’s not a guarantee we can get the No. 2 seed, but I can guarantee I can rest the starters,” Sirianni told Philadelphia reporters Friday. “Just thought that was the best thing for our football team right there.”
Sirianni has had a lot of success and clearly knows his team best. Plus, the Eagles needed a win and a victory by the Lions to vault ahead of the Bears. The Eagles still draw a home game as the No. 3 seed, but if they win, that means a trip to Soldier Field — provided the Bears defeat the Packers.
Here are the records in road playoff games for the quarterbacks with postseason experience.
NFC
Seahawks: Sam Darnold, 0-1
Eagles: Jalen Hurts, 0-2
Rams: Matthew Stafford, 1-5
49ers: Brock Purdy, 0-1
Packers: Jordan Love, 1-2
AFC
Broncos: Bo Nix, 0-1
Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, 0-1
Steelers: Aaron Rodgers, 5-6
Texans: C.J. Stroud, 0-2
Bills: Josh Allen, 0-4
Chargers: Justin Herbert, 0-2
It stands to reason that playoff quarterbacks won’t have great road records. They’re playing against a higher-seeded opponent, so in many cases they’re an underdog. Allen, for instance, is 0-4, but his last three road losses came against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.
The active quarterback with the most road playoff wins is Rodgers with five. Tom Brady and Joe Flacco share the NFL record with seven apiece.
It has been forever since the Bears won a road playoff game — Jan. 1, 1995, at the Metrodome in Minneapolis. Steve Walsh was the starting quarterback in a 35-18 upset of the Vikings. Their road playoff record since that game is only 0-2, though. They lost the following week in San Francisco and were toppled in New Orleans in the wild-card round after the 2020 season.
5. With Patrick Mahomes left at home recovering from surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee, it’s considered a wide-open playoff field.
The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes takes the field prior against the Eagles at Arrowhead Stadium on Sept. 14, 2025, in Kansas City, Missouri. (Jamie Squire/Getty)
Mahomes’ 17-4 record in playoff games, which includes two losses in the Super Bowl, gives him the best winning percentage (81%) of any quarterback in NFL history with a minimum of 10 postseason starts. The absence of him and the Chiefs from the tournament gives the feeling that the field — not just the AFC — is wide open, with maybe 12 or 13 of the 14 teams capable of taking home the Lombardi Trophy.
Sure, there will be plenty of obstacles, but there isn’t one super team that everyone wants to avoid, at least before the Super Bowl.
“Tell me who the favorite is,” a pro scout for another team said.
The favorite was the Los Angeles Rams before they frittered away a 30-16 lead midway through the fourth quarter of a Week 16 overtime loss in Seattle and followed it up with a flat showing in a 27-24 loss in Atlanta.
The Rams remain dangerous with Matthew Stafford, one of three quarterbacks in the field who has won a Super Bowl. But the point is the Rams (12-5) no longer loom as the team atop every power ranking.
The Seahawks earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a victory Saturday at San Francisco. They’re 14-3 and have a formidable defense. But quarterback Sam Darnold is 0-1 in the playoffs and leads the NFL with 20 turnovers (14 interceptions, six lost fumbles). Seattle could get a boost as a pedestrian running game has been a plus of late. The Seahawks rushed for 514 yards over the final three weeks.
It’s a popular refrain around the league with the postseason arriving. It’s impossible to pick a team that looks like the one to beat because all have a flaw or an unproven postseason quarterback.
“The Bears could make a run,” the pro scout said. “The Rams could win it all even as poorly as they played (in Atlanta). You just saw San Francisco. They could make a run. Seattle’s defense is nasty. You can’t count out Philadelphia. (Eagles GM) Howie (Roseman) has dudes and they’ve already won a ring. They know how to win in January. I wouldn’t even count out the Packers. Matt LaFleur can coach.
“Look at the AFC. Are you really going to invest in the Broncos? I’m not. The Patriots? Really? The playoffs are going to be fun. In that conference, Houston could be a team you don’t want to see. C.J. Stroud just has to not turn it over and they have to be somewhat prolific with their passing game. Burn some tempo running the ball and score around 17 points. That might win enough games to get the Texans to the Super Bowl.
“I don’t trust Bo Nix right now. Denver doesn’t run the ball well. Are you going to have Bo Nix throw it 45 times in a passing game? Jacksonville? Why not, I guess, but that is what I’m saying with so many of these teams in both conferences.”
Of the 14 teams in the field, the front-office types I talked to figured 12 could wind up going all the way. The Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers were discounted by everyone I chatted with.
Three teams are carrying considerable winning streaks into the playoffs. The Seahawks have rolled off seven straight, snapping the 49ers’ six-game streak. The Texans have won nine in a row and the Jaguars eight.
“I think you could make a case for everyone outside of (the Panthers), and in the AFC, everyone but maybe Pittsburgh,” a general manager said.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford) throws during the second half against the Seahawks on Dec. 18, 2025, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
The Commanders went on a heater to reach the NFC championship game last season as the No. 6 seed, upsetting the Lions (with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson) in the divisional round.
Nos. 1 and 2 seeds have reached the conference championship game 12 out of a possible 20 times in the last five years since the NFL expanded to a 14-team playoff field. In the five years from 2015-19, the top two seeds advanced to the championship game round 16 times.
The top seeds aren’t necessarily more vulnerable this time around, but there’s just no consensus when you ask which team will throw a parade in the second week of February.
“Who is the best team in the NFC?” the general manager said. “You thought it was the Rams, but not after the last couple weeks. There was no defense in that Bears game at San Francisco on Sunday night. I get that. But Ben Johnson is going to have a great plan and it’s going to be creative and play to his team’s strengths. Caleb (Williams) can make throws. Why not? They might win the whole deal. Or they could get bounced in the first round.
“Whoever is going to get hot and whoever is going to turn the ball over (on defense) is going to advance. That has been the Bears’ recipe. If they’re plus-two every game, they’re going to win every game.
“I’m looking at the teams in the AFC and I wouldn’t be surprised if every road team wins wild-card weekend. Will it happen? Probably not. But I am just saying Houston or Jacksonville is a tough out. Buffalo is a tough out. The Chargers? Justin Herbert is playing better than anyone wants to credit him for behind everything they’ve got going on with that O-line. Whoever is going to win the AFC North is going to have a worse record. Jacksonville? New England? I don’t know. I guess.
“On the flip side, I am sure the entire AFC is saying, ‘The Broncos, really?’ I don’t know. Denver has won, what, (10 games by eight points or fewer)? Whenever it’s not the Chiefs, you’re like, ‘Well, (heck), this whole thing is wide open.’
“In these games the margins are so small, you can throw a speed-out hoping to get 6 yards and all of a sudden you house it for 75 and it’s the difference in the game. Lamar (Jackson) runs around, makes three guys miss and he’s got no business even making a play, throws it up and the defender falls down and you’re looking at an 80-yard touchdown. You’re like, how did that just happen? That’s been Mahomes when he was on a roll, and at the end of the game, you look at it and you’re like, there were three plays that were the difference.
“It’s going to be fascinating.”
6. Circling back to home-field advantage and what it could mean for the Bears, who are guaranteed to host a divisional round game at Soldier Field if they win the wild-card game.
Bears running back D’Andre Swift runs the ball in the first quarter against the Lions at Soldier Field on Jan. 4, 2026. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
They had won six consecutive games at Soldier Field before this loss to the Lions. Ben Johnson has really taken note of how the home crowd can make it difficult for opponents in the last two months and has even mentioned how Bears fans can be a factor in certain road games. A prime-time playoff game versus the Packers will bring out a raucous crowd.
The Bears have leaned back into the whole “fourth phase” that former coach Lovie Smith used to talk about, with the home-field crowd being the final phase after offense, defense and special teams. That fourth phase, of course, hasn’t meant a whole lot when the team has been bad in the last decade-plus but it’s a legitimate advantage and even more so if the opponent comes from a warm-weather city or plays home games indoors.
Some defensive home/road splits really stand out. Believe it or not, the Bears’ pass defense, at least before Sunday’s loss when Jared Goff completed 27 of 42 passes for 331 yards, has been pretty good.
Yards per rush: 4.65 (home)/5.32 (road)
Completion percentage: 66.0%/67.2%
Touchdowns-interceptions: 8-12/24-11
Passer rating: 77.1/105.6
ANYA (Adjusted net yards per attempt): 4.50/7.78
Sacks: 25/10
There are some huge differences here in terms of passing touchdowns, passer rating, ANYA and sacks, especially when considering there were eight home games and nine on the road. Just going off the defensive metrics at home, the Bears would appear to have a fearsome defense.
Unlike passer rating, ANYA takes into account sacks and yardage lost. Because Caleb Williams has done a terrific job this season avoiding interceptions and because he (and the offense as a whole) has reduced the number of sacks he’s taken, his ANYA finished at 6.76 and he entered Week 18 ranked 11th in the league.
Some of the home success for the defense has to be attributed to the level of competition. The Bears faced J.J. McCarthy in his first NFL start, Spencer Rattler, rookie Jaxson Dart/Russell Wilson, Mason Rudolph and rookie Shedeur Sanders at Soldier Field. But the Bears also picked off Dallas’ Dak Prescott three times back in Week 3.
Big games by Goff, Cincinnati’s Joe Flacco and San Francisco’s Brock Purdy on the road combined with a total lack of a pass rush away from Soldier Field sent the ANYA numbers in those splits to a scary high level of 7.78. For reference, a full-season ANYA of 7.78 would rank third in the league behind only Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye. The 4.50 ANYA for opposing quarterbacks at Soldier Field is really good. For reference, Geno Smith, who entered Week 18 ranked 32nd in the league, was at 4.44.
Offensively, the Bears have been better at home, too. The rushing totals are relatively even across the board because run games can travel and the banner day the Bears had at Philadelphia ensured their road ground numbers were very healthy.
Williams has been better at home, too, with 15 touchdown passes and only two interceptions at Soldier Field. He had 12 touchdowns and five interceptions on the road and took eight sacks at home, with 16 on the road.
Williams’ ANYA at Soldier Field is 7.58, a very high mark, and 6.11 on the road.
Add it all up and even when you account for some of the opponents they faced, it’s a different team at Soldier Field than on the road.
7. If Ben Johnson faces a similar situation to the one he encountered with 1:55 remaining to play in a tie game with fourth-and-5 on his own 31-yard line, I have to think he’s going for it.
Lions kicker Jake Bates celebrates with his team after making the kick to give the Lions a 19-16 win over the Bears at Soldier Field on Jan. 4, 2026. (Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune)
Against the Lions, Johnson sent the punt team on the field and we know how that ended. Detroit ran the ball twice with Jhamyr Gibbs before Jared Goff connected with Amon-Ra St. Brown for 26 yards over the middle and just like that, the Lions were in field goal range to win the game.
I just don’t see Johnson relying on his defense in a game-ending situation unless the first 58 minutes of a playoff game against the Packers is played in a much different way by that unit.
Afterward, Johnson said he considered going for it. Attempt it there and fail to move the chains and it’s probably game over. The flip side is punt and watch your defense let the Lions drive and it’s game over.
“Because we had three timeouts,” Johnson said of the decision to punt. “And we felt like we were going to get the ball back.
“Those are things we talk about. Especially coming off the two-minute warning like that, we’ve got plenty of time to make those decisions.”
8. The Bears’ quest for a 4,000-yard passer carries into 2026.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams makes a two-point conversion pass to tight end Cole Kmet during the fourth quarter against the Lions at Soldier Field on Jan. 4, 2026. (Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune)
But Caleb Williams, on his 25-yard touchdown pass to Jahdae Walker at the start of the fourth quarter, moved past Erik Kramer to claim the franchise record for passing yards in a season.
“The safety (Avonte Maddox) bit,” Williams said. “Safety bit on the receiver on the right side. Had Jahdae going over the top. Just went through my reads and Jahdae did a great job.”
Williams finished the year with 3,942 passing yards.
The Lions were short at safety and in the secondary in general, but the slow start by the offense in the first half — and then the punt at the end of the game — doomed Williams’ bid for 4,000.
Moving ahead of Kramer didn’t seem particularly satisfying for Williams, given the outcome.
“No,” he said. “Need to win the game. Didn’t want to leave it up to another team to put us in the seeding that we want to be in. We didn’t execute the way we needed to. That number is the number and so be it.”
I am sure Williams will take some pride in having the Bears’ all-time mark when the season is over and he has an opportunity to reflect. The best thing is he’s finishing Year 2 with a bright future ahead after he made real strides throughout the season.
9. The third meeting between the Bears and Packers marks just the third time the rivals will meet in the playoffs.
Bears wide receiver DJ Moore makes the game-winning touchdown catch in overtime against the Packers at Soldier Field on Dec. 20, 2025. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
Green Bay won the last meeting in the NFC Championship Game in 2011, defeating the Bears 21-14 at Soldier Field in a game in which quarterback Jay Cutler left with a knee injury and center Olin Kreutz suffered a Lisfranc ligament injury. The Bears got the best of Green Bay, 33-14, in a Western Division playoff in 1941 before going on to beat the New York Giants in the championship.
A third meeting between the teams in six weeks brings coaching to the forefront. Both teams know each other really well. There aren’t going to be a lot of secrets or hidden strengths.
The big difference between the Week 14 game at Lambeau Field and the rematch in Week 16 was that Green Bay edge rusher Micah Parsons suffered a torn ACL in a brutal Week 15 loss at Denver. How did the Packers adjust without their marquee defender?
“A little bit more movement the second time we played them without Parsons,” tight end Durham Smythe said. “But they’re going to do what they do. That’s a really good defense. Obviously, with the rivalry and everything it will be another really fun game.”
Smythe was citing blitzes and movement by linemen that Green Bay went to in order to try to generate a pass rush on Caleb Williams. The Bears had gone back to 2024 film of the Green Bay defense to try to get an idea for what the Packers might do without Parsons.
“You’re kind of guessing and anticipating what they’re going to be (entering the Week 16 game),” passing game coordinator Press Taylor said. “They have grown too and they’ve changed and what they feel like they’ve had success with against you … the hardest part of that (Week 16) game was we didn’t have possessions. We had three possessions in the first half.
“It was kind of frustrating to just not be able to settle into the flow of things and then the fourth quarter is kind of its own animal because you’re just playing to try to win the game.”
10. The Bears had a total of 31 players spend time on the practice squad during the regular season.
Bears defensive lineman Tanoh Kpassagnon works out on July 23, 2025, during the first practice of training camp at Halas Hall in Lake Forest. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)
They had 32 in 2024, 30 in 2023, 33 in 2022, 34 in 2021 and 33 in 2020. The NFL voted to expand the developmental squad to 12 players in 2020 and bumped that number to 16 for the last five years.
Twelve players who spent time on the practice squad appeared in a game: wide receiver Maurice Alexander; running back Brittain Brown; tight ends Stephen Carlson and Nikola Kalinic; offensive lineman Jordan McFadden; defensive linemen Jonathan Ford and Tanoh Kpassagnon; linebackers Carl Jones Jr., Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Ty Summers; cornerback Dallis Flowers and kicker Jake Moody.
Brown played the most snaps of any practice-squad player on offense with 15. Ford (96) and Kpassagnon (89) had the most on defense. The relative health and depth of the roster created a situation in which the bulk of the practice-squad moves were to bolster special teams.
Eleven practice-squad members got on the field in 2024, 12 played in 2023 and 13 got action in 2022. The high is 21 in 2021, when COVID-19 was still affecting rosters.
Here are the number of Bears practice-squad players from the last 11 seasons.
2025: 31
2024: 32
2023: 30
2022: 33
2021: 34
2020: 33
2019: 20
2018: 13
2017: 27
2016: 30
2015: 30
10a. In news that may interest only me, the Bears have now punted 361 consecutive times without attempting a fake, a streak that is 92 games and counting and goes back to Week 9 of the 2020 season at Tennessee.
Early in the second quarter of that game against the Titans, the Bears faced fourth-and-6 from their 36-yard line. Personal protector DeAndre Houston-Carson received a direct snap and handed off to linebacker Barkevious Mingo on an end-around, and Mingo gained 11 yards — the longest rush of the game in a 24-17 loss. After three more plays, the Bears punted on fourth-and-2 from the Titans 45 so they weren’t too daring.
Updating some research I stumbled through last season, I believe the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns are the only teams that have gone longer without a fake on special teams. The Washington Commanders have not run one in the regular season since the Mingo fake, but they did hit one in the NFC Championship Game last January when ex-Bears punter Tress Way connected on a pass.
One other punting note: Tory Taylor punted 60 times or 3.53 times per game this season. That’s the lowest figure in Bears’ history. The 1995 Bears punted 58 times in a 16-game season (3.63 average).
10b. The Atlanta Falcons fired general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Raheem Morris on Sunday. The organization has reportedly been discussing a potential high-ranking role in the front office for former quarterback Matt Ryan.
Just playing connect-the-dots here. If Ryan is hired into some type of position where he’s over the GM or working in tandem with the GM, could Bears’ assistant GM Ian Cunningham or senior director of player personnel Jeff King be strong candidates for the GM job in Atlanta? Ryan Poles was teammates with Matt Ryan at Boston College and they have a close relationship.
10c. Left guard Joe Thuney will make his 22nd start in a playoff game against Green Bay. The 10-year veteran has played the equivalent of more than 11 full regular seasons with all of the postseason success he experienced in New England and Kansas City.
10d. The list of opponents in 2026 is complete.
The Bears are scheduled for nine home games and eight road games. Home opponents not including NFC North rivals: New England, New Orleans, New York Jets, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and Jacksonville.
Road opponents not including NFC North rivals: Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Miami and Seattle.
The Bears will face seven opponents that reached the playoffs this season, including two games against the Packers.
What’s the difference in the first-place schedule the Bears have and the fourth-place schedule the Lions will have? Only three opponents are different. Instead of drawing the Eagles, Jaguars and Seahawks, Detroit will play the Giants, Cardinals and Titans.
The schedule is typically released in May.
10e. I should have noted the big game by rookie tight end Colston Loveland higher in the column. He was targeted 13 times and made 10 receptions for 91 yards and a touchdown. He finished the season with 58 receptions for 713 yards and six touchdowns, and after a really slow start to the season getting any of the tight ends involved in the passing game, Loveland really took off. He averaged 59.7 yards over the last 10 games and is just scratching the surface.
“I said it a couple weeks ago,” fellow tight end Durham Smythe said. “It’s been a crazy progression and that’s saying something because he didn’t start from nothing. He started as a pretty good player and he’s gotten better every week. It’s been really impressive for a guy that young.”
10f. Also have to note the job tight end Cole Kmet did Sunday and two remarkable plays he made.
First, he was chipping defensive end Aidan Hutchinson on third-and-10 at the Bears’ 22-yard line before he released, caught a pass from Caleb Williams and turned it into a 19-yard gain. The drive ended on a touchdown pass to Colston Loveland and then Kmet came through on the two-point conversion. Again, he was blocking Hutchinson on the play. He fell down and was able to get up and make it to the end zone, where he caught the two-point conversion pass while being drilled by cornerback Rock-Ya Sin.
10g. The Packers opened as a 1 1/2-point favorite over the Bears at DraftKings immediately after the Bears-Lions game ended. Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas didn’t hang numbers until the end of the Sunday night game when the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game concluded. Westgate installed the Bears as a 1-point favorite.
10h. The Prime Video crew of Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit and Kaylee Hartung will call the wild-card game against the Packers.
10i. Thanks for following along in the regular season. Happy New Year and on to the postseason.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/01/05/chicago-bears-brad-biggs-10-thoughts-week-18/
