Does Aaron Rodgers still own the Chicago Bears? We’re about to find out.

Well, that’s if Rodgers plays Sunday when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Bears. He’s battling through a fractured left wrist and his status is up in the air. It certainly would make for good drama if he does return to Soldier Field for the first time since 2022.

But this isn’t the same Rodgers who declared his ownership of the Bears in 2021 or who backed it up in his final season with the Green Bay Packers.

In 29 regular-season starts against the Bears, Rodgers is 24-5 with a 109.0 passer rating, 64 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has another win against them in the NFC championship game after the 2010 season, and he has won eight consecutive starts against the Bears dating to 2018. He didn’t throw a single interception in those eight wins.

But Rodgers’ days in Green Bay are long gone, and he hasn’t been the same player since leaving coach Matt LaFleur’s system.

With the Steelers this season, Rodgers ranks 25th among NFL quarterbacks in EPA per drop-back, according to NFL Pro. EPA, or expected points added, measures the overall impact a player has on a game (similar to WAR in baseball), and Rodgers is in the negative at minus-0.06 points per drop-back.

He ranks just behind the Atlanta Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. and just ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence. Rodgers had the exact same EPA per drop-back last year with the New York Jets. For those wondering, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is 14th at plus-0.05 points per drop-back.

Since returning from his 2023 Achilles injury, Rodgers, 41, has been releasing the ball quicker. Next Gen Stats clocked his “time to throw” metric at 2.95 seconds in 2018, which was the NFL’s fifth-slowest average time from snap to throw that season. That number came down considerably over his four years with LaFleur (2019-22) and has come down further since Rodgers left the Packers.

This year Rodgers is the NFL’s second-quickest to throw at 2.64 seconds (behind the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa at 2.58) among quarterbacks with enough playing time to qualify.

It’s probably no surprise, then, that Rodgers has a low deep-ball rate. Only 8.7% of his pass attempts this season traveled more than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which ranks 23rd. In his last season in Green Bay in 2022, he finished third among qualified QBs with a 14.2% deep-ball rate. The Steelers want him to get rid of the ball quickly, and they’re OK if that means short, quick passes.

Opponents are blitzing Rodgers less than when he was with the Packers. His diminished mobility in his 40s might be a reason teams feel OK rushing only four defenders. He has faced a blitz on 23.5% of drop-backs, which ranks 25th. Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception against the blitz this season, and his passer rating is slightly better against the blitz (99.1) than not (97.2).

Did somebody say playoffs?

The Bears are 7-3 and in first place in the NFC North. But that doesn’t mean they are the favorite to win the division.

The Bears and Packers are tied with the toughest remaining schedules. Their final seven opponents have a .592 winning percentage. This comes after the Bears took care of business against some not-so-great opponents. Their strength of schedule ranked 29th over the first 10 games.

Next Gen Stats gives the Bears a 59% chance to make the playoffs. According to its models, the Detroit Lions have a 74% chance and the Packers 72%.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Bears a 58% chance of making the playoffs and a 22% chance to win the NFC North. The Athletic’s playoff model is even less optimistic, giving the Bears a 47% chance to make the playoffs and a 15% chance to win the division.

If those metrics mean anything, Bears fans probably shouldn’t book their Super Bowl flights yet.

Brian Flores went wild against Caleb Williams.

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams escapes being tackled by Vikings defensive tackle Jalen Redmond on Nov. 16, 2025, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)

The Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator is known for blitzing at the highest rate in the NFL. Flores’ Vikings led the NFL in blitz rate in 2023 and 2024 — and they lead the league again in 2025.

But he took it up another notch Sunday to an absurd 66.7% blitz rate, by far the highest mark Williams has faced this season.

“I didn’t know that it was that much,” Williams said Wednesday. “But they were getting a little bit of pressure, and you could kind of feel it sometimes. The offensive line did a great job. Everybody else — tight ends and running backs — did a great job blocking.

“We’ve got to execute and do better to be able to pull away and not keep the game so close. … I did feel (the pressure) a little bit.”

Williams, who has faced the Vikings twice, has seen the third-highest blitz rate among NFL quarterbacks this season at 35.5%. The only quarterbacks ahead of him are Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.

Odds and ends.

Caleb Williams has led five fourth-quarter comebacks this year. That’s the most in Bears history in a single season. Williams surpassed Jay Cutler’s four in both 2010 and 2015. The NFL single-season record is eight, set by Matthew Stafford in 2016 and matched by Kirk Cousins in 2022. Only 11 times has a quarterback recorded six or more fourth-quarter comebacks in a season. Cousins was the most recent.
Kicker Cairo Santos made a 54-yard field goal Sunday, setting a franchise record for the most 50-plus-yarders. It was his 24th as a Bear, surpassing Robbie Gould’s 23.
Safety Kevin Byard III recorded his fifth interception of the season. The last Bears players with at least five interceptions were cornerback Kyle Fuller (seven) and safety Eddie Jackson (six) in 2018. That season was the last time the Bears led the NFL in takeaways. They currently lead the league with 22 takeaways.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/20/chicago-bears-numbers-aaron-rodgers/