Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Continues To Show No Signs Of Runaway Tariff Costs

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Continues To Show No Signs Of Runaway Tariff Costs

First things first, this is September data… so horribly lagged/stale… but, it’s all we have, so let’s dive in.

The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), which leave it up 2.8% YoY (as expected), slightly lower than August +2.9%…

Source: Bloomberg

On an annual basis, the headline PCE rose 2.8%, up modestly from 2.7% YoY in August (as expected). That is the highest since April 2024, but again remains in the range of the last two years…

Source: Bloomberg

…showing no signs at all of the runaway tariff-driven costs that so many establishment economists proclaimed was imminent.

Services costs (not tariff-related directly) attributed the most to the rising costs while Goods prices were barely positive…

Source: Bloomberg

The closely-watched SuperCore PCE slipped to +3.25% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Also trending lower overall, ruining the ‘Trump will kill us all with tariffs’ narrative.

Meanwhile, amid rising prices, income growth outpaced spending growth for a change…

Source: Bloomberg

Leaving the savings rate at 4.7%, unchanged from August and at lowest since Dec 2024…

So, while this data is admittedly stale, it shows no signs of 1) tariff-driven inflation or 2) a suffering consumer.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/05/2025 – 10:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-continues-show-no-signs-runaway-tariff-costs

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favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runzway tariff costs [326] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runsway tariff costs [327] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runwway tariff costs [328] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runqway tariff costs [329] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaqay tariff costs [330] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaaay tariff costs [331] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runasay tariff costs [332] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaeay tariff costs [333] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runa3ay tariff costs [334] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runa2ay tariff costs [335] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runawzy tariff costs [336] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runawsy tariff costs [337] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runawwy tariff costs [338] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runawqy tariff costs [339] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runawat tariff costs [340] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runawag tariff costs [341] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runawah tariff costs [342] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runawau tariff costs [343] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runawa7 tariff costs [344] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runawa6 tariff costs [345] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway rariff costs [346] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway fariff costs [347] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway gariff costs [348] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway yariff costs [349] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway 6ariff costs [350] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway 5ariff costs [351] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tzriff costs [352] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tsriff costs [353] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway twriff costs [354] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tqriff costs [355] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway taeiff costs [356] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tadiff costs [357] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tafiff costs [358] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tatiff costs [359] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway ta5iff costs [360] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway ta4iff costs [361] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway taruff costs [362] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarjff costs [363] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarkff costs [364] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway taroff costs [365] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tar9ff costs [366] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tar8ff costs [367] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway taridf costs [368] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway taricf costs [369] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarivf costs [370] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarigf costs [371] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway taritf costs [372] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarirf costs [373] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarifd costs [374] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarifc costs [375] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarifv costs [376] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarifg costs [377] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarift costs [378] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tarifr costs [379] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff xosts [380] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff vosts [381] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff fosts [382] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff dosts [383] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cists [384] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cksts [385] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff clsts [386] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cpsts [387] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff c0sts [388] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff c9sts [389] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff coats [390] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cozts [391] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff coxts [392] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff codts [393] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff coets [394] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cowts [395] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cosrs [396] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cosfs [397] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cosgs [398] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cosys [399] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cos6s [400] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff cos5s [401] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff costa [402] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff costz [403] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff costx [404] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff costd [405] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff coste [406] => fed’s favorite inflation indicator continues to show no signs of runaway tariff costw ) </h1> </body>