U.S. GDP is made up of many smaller, distinct state economies fueling national growth.

In 2025, states responsible for about a third of U.S. GDP are in recession, or face high recession risk.

Another third are expanding, including Florida and Utah, based on payrolls, employment, and other key economic data.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows recession risk by state in 2025, based on analysis from Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Where Recession Risk is Highest in America

To analyze recession risk, Zandi looks at state-level economic activity. This included a range of data such as unemployment, building permits, retail sales, industrial activity, delinquency rates, and tax revenues.

States were then categorized into three buckets based on these factors as of October 2025:

In Recession/High Risk

Treading Water

Expanding

State/District
Business Cycle Status
Share of U.S. GDP (%)
Georgia
In Recession/High Risk
3.03
Montana
In Recession/High Risk
0.25
Wyoming
In Recession/High Risk
0.18
Michigan
In Recession/High Risk
2.44
Massachusetts
In Recession/High Risk
2.73
Mississippi
In Recession/High Risk
0.53
Minnesota
In Recession/High Risk
1.70
Kansas
In Recession/High Risk
0.80
Rhode Island
In Recession/High Risk
0.28
Delaware
In Recession/High Risk
0.34
Washington
In Recession/High Risk
3.02
Illinois
In Recession/High Risk
3.85
West Virginia
In Recession/High Risk
0.36
New Hampshire
In Recession/High Risk
0.42
Maryland
In Recession/High Risk
1.86
Virginia
In Recession/High Risk
2.66
South Dakota
In Recession/High Risk
0.25
Connecticut
In Recession/High Risk
1.27
Oregon
In Recession/High Risk
1.14
Iowa
In Recession/High Risk
0.86
New Jersey
In Recession/High Risk
2.93
Maine
In Recession/High Risk
0.33
District of Columbia
In Recession/High Risk
0.64
Missouri
Treading Water
1.54
Ohio
Treading Water
3.14
Hawaii
Treading Water
0.39
Arkansas
Treading Water
0.65
New Mexico
Treading Water
0.49
Tennessee
Treading Water
1.87
New York
Treading Water
7.92
Vermont
Treading Water
0.16
Alaska
Treading Water
0.24
Colorado
Treading Water
1.92
California
Treading Water
14.50
Nevada
Treading Water
0.86
South Carolina
Expanding
1.18
Texas
Expanding
9.41
Oklahoma
Expanding
0.92
Idaho
Expanding
0.43
Kentucky
Expanding
0.99
Alabama
Expanding
1.10
Indiana
Expanding
1.81
Nebraska
Expanding
0.63
North Carolina
Expanding
2.86
Louisiana
Expanding
1.11
Florida
Expanding
5.78
North Dakota
Expanding
0.26
Pennsylvania
Expanding
3.54
Arizona
Expanding
1.88
Wisconsin
Expanding
1.53
Utah
Expanding
1.02

Currently, many coastal, Northeastern states are facing some of the worst economic conditions.

In Maine, for instance, year-over-year GDP growth is just 0.8% as of Q2 2025, compared to the U.S. average of 2.1%. Meanwhile, Washington, D.C.’s unemployment rate was 6.4% in July, significantly higher than the 4.6% U.S. average given sweeping federal cuts.

According to Zandi’s analysis, New York and California are “Treading Water”, together responsible for driving over 22% of U.S. GDP.

In comparison, Texas, which fuels 9.4% of U.S. economic growth is expanding. Unemployment rates of 4.0% in July remain below the U.S. average. Additionally, the Texas economy is growing faster than the nation, while income growth rose 6.3% annually as of Q2 2025, outpacing the national average.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on unemployment by state in 2025.