The playoff scenarios are getting real. With three weeks remaining in the regular season, the Chicago Bears have positioned themselves well — but they haven’t clinched anything yet.

The Bears finish the season by hosting the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night, visiting the San Francisco 49ers in a Week 17 Sunday night game and hosting the Detroit Lions in Week 18. All three opponents are in the playoff hunt.

Here’s a look at the race for the postseason in the NFC.

What’s the current playoff picture?

Here’s where things stand heading into Week 16 (remember, division winners get the top four seeds).

Currently in

Rams (11-3)
Bears (10-4)
Eagles (9-5)
Buccaneers (7-7)
Seahawks (11-3)
49ers (10-4)
Packers (9-4-1)

Outside looking in

Lions (8-6)
Panthers (7-7)
Cowboys (6-7-1)

What does it mean for the Bears?

The Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys remain alive for their division titles, but neither is a threat for a wild-card spot. The Lions are the lone team that can steal a wild-card berth.

The Los Angeles Rams are the only NFC team that has clinched a playoff spot. Thursday night’s game between the Rams and Seattle Seahawks has massive implications for the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed, which carries a first-round bye.

Similarly, the NFC North lead hangs in the balance in Saturday’s Bears-Packers matchup at Soldier Field (7:20 p.m., Fox-32).

According to the NFL, the Bears can clinch a playoff spot this week with a win and a Lions loss or tie Sunday at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers (3:25 p.m., CBS-2). The Bears also can clinch a spot with a tie against the Packers and a Lions loss.

The same two scenarios are true for the Packers if they win or tie Saturday. So a Bears-Packers tie and a Lions loss would put both the Bears and Packers in the playoffs.

NFL Next Gen Stats gives the Bears a 76% chance to make the playoffs. That’s the lowest among the seven NFC teams currently in playoff position. The Packers have an 89% chance, while the Lions are at 38%.

ESPN gives the Bears a 75% chance to reach the postseason and a 40% chance to win the division. The Athletic’s playoff simulator is higher on the Bears, giving them an 84% chance to make the postseason.

Bears captain Grady Jarrett said these next three weeks are about doing what they’ve been doing. Nothing changes.

“Getting back to the basics, especially late in the season, knowing we don’t have to reinvent the wheel,” Jarrett said. “Really, just trust our training. The way we train, we definitely have built our bodies and minds to be able to really thrive in this position.”

What happens if the Bears win Saturday?

Bears safety Kevin Byard III (31) celebrates the win over the Browns on Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025, at Soldier Field. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)

Per The Athletic’s playoff simulator, if the Bears beat the Packers, they have an 83% chance to win the division and a 97% chance to make the postseason. If the Bears win any two of the next three games, The Athletic gives them better than a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

The Bears remain in contention for the No. 1 seed, but that depends heavily upon what the Rams and Seahawks do. Even if the Bears win all three of their remaining games, that wouldn’t guarantee them the No. 1 seed.

Per ESPN, the Rams have the highest likelihood to earn the No. 1 seed at 59%, while the Seahawks are next-best at 23%. The 49ers have a 12% chance and the Bears a 4% chance.

What happens if the Bears lose Saturday?

The Packers defense brings down Bears running back Kyle Monangai in the second quarter Dec. 7, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. (Eileen T. Meslar/Chicago Tribune)

If the Bears lose to the Packers, per The Athletic, their playoff chances drop to 70% and their likelihood to win the division falls to 20%. The NFC North race wouldn’t be over if the Bears lose, but the Packers would move back into first place at 10-4-1, while the Bears would drop to 10-5.

The Packers’ Week 4 tie with the Cowboys makes a tie for first place in the division highly unlikely. If the Packers win Saturday, the Bears still could win the division if they beat the 49ers and Lions and the Packers lost to either the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17 or the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18. In that scenario, the Bears would finish 12-5 and the Packers 11-5-1.

If the Bears don’t win the division but still claim a wild-card spot, they are highly likely to wind up as the No. 7 seed. According to ESPN, the Bears are the second-likeliest team to earn the No. 2 seed at 34% (behind the Packers at 44%) and the third-likeliest to earn the No. 7 seed at 24%.

The Bears could move up to the No. 6 seed in a wild-card scenario if they beat the 49ers in Week 17. The No. 5 seed (the highest-seeded wild card) is unlikely given the records of the NFC West teams.

The No. 7 seed would pit the Bears against the No. 2 seed in the first round — and the team with the highest chances of landing the No. 2 seed, per ESPN, is the Packers at 44%. The Philadelphia Eagles have a 16% chance of sneaking up to the No. 2 seed.

So Saturday’s Bears-Packers matchup might not necessarily be the last one this season.

Odds and ends

Here are some other numbers that stand out this week:

Per the Bears, quarterback Caleb Williams now holds the record for the fewest interceptions (12) in his first 1,000 NFL pass attempts. Jacoby Brissett previously held the record with 14.
With 935 rushing yards, running back D’Andre Swift is zeroing in on his second 1,000-yard season. He recorded a career-high 1,049 in 2023 with the Eagles. Last season marked Swift’s career high in yards from scrimmage with 1,345 (959 rushing, 386 receiving). He has 1,189 yards from scrimmage this year with three games remaining.
Packers star edge rusher Micah Parsons has been on the field for 77.4% of the defensive snaps this season, including Sunday’s injury-shortened game. Parsons, who tore an ACL against the Denver Broncos, had eight QB pressures two weeks ago against the Bears and 83 for the season, per NFL Pro. His next-closest teammate is Rashan Gary with 42 pressures. The Packers have their work cut out for them trying to replace Parsons’ production.
After a limited snap count in his return from injury, Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards played 100% of the defensive snaps last week. Tremaine Edmunds is back at practice this week too, so the Bears are getting healthier at linebacker.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/12/18/chicago-bears-green-bay-packers-playoff-scenarios/